Archer

Time for whatever this is: -If TJ or Kas flip elim, sus the other, because recently, they have been in lockstep. They were first and second on both elim exes. I think that clears them. -If I tunnel on elim!Ventyl, their D1 vote was to prevent an info kill and make Mat look sus for the CW, D2/3 they voted village!Illwei, and D4 they vote Striker, notably instead of Connie or TUO. -If Araris is an elim, Gears isn’t an elim because of how much they’ve focused on them. -Devo’s playstyle makes their votes NAI unless they break a tie because they mostly add to wagons that will go through with or without them. I’m having a hard time reading them. Mist is RNGing. -Show of hands, who thinks that zero elims voted on D1 besides Ventyl with ten minutes to go? No one? Cool. That means our suspect list is Ashbringer, Burnt, Flyingbooks, Striker, Devo, Araris, and Mist. Removing Mist and Devo since I can’t read them. -On D3, we’ve got a 4 villager pile-up on Connie, so they were a lost cause. Striker’s vote is NAI because they could be bussing. The elim CW option was Illwei, per Ventyl’s vote. Ashbringer, Burnt, Flyingbooks, and Mist didn’t weigh in, which I find more incriminating than Araris’ Gears vote. If Ventyl is an elim, I don’t understand why Striker voted on them. That’s why I’m hesitant to exe Striker. -On D4, Ventyl’s vote marks the moment the elims start bussing. So Flyingbooks and Araris could have been bussing. Alternatively, the CW option was Gears, which had Striker on it. -My gut says Ashbringer’s D4 vote was too early for an elim. Why bus when there’s two votes on them? Otherwise, they went after v!Illwei and then were silent on D3, which speaks volumes. But they led the Dannex CW which I don’t see an elim doing. -Flyingbooks voted Matrim, then no one on D2 when no elim was up for exe until the Non reveal, then no one D3 when Connie was in trouble, and was in bus position D4. This record isn’t great, so I think they’re my best sus at the moment. -Burnt doesn’t feel very engaged, so having trouble reading them too. My guess is if they were PM spidering for the elims we’d have had more chaos by now, and not being invested is a village thing. -Sus list of who the D1 voting elim is: (most to least) Flyingbooks, Araris, Striker. I'll vote Ventyl tomorrow though first. And just to put it out there, if Ventyl is a lost cause to the elims, I believe they will submit the NK. No sense wasting someone else getting scanned doing it. Can we block that with a Line of Vigor or watch with a Line of Making?

First off, @The Unknown Order, sorry. Twice exed in 5 hours. That's rough man Second, wooo! Two down, two or three to go. No vote manip, probably because of the wide margin. I'm disappointed in myself because I did a read of TUO a day or too ago and found nothing, but this was largely based on their more recent activity. Third, I passed my map to someone, you know who you are. That will allow me to teach someone a specialization tonight. If you are interested and don't already have one, shoot me a PM! Per day grabbing rules, wouldn't be be informed who grabbed the gun? (I though if multiple people grab for it, one guy gets it, the others die) I still suspect them a bit, but I need to reassess with the new info. Could be I'm just in old grooves. Anyone up for scanning all the suspicious players tonight? Or saying we're scanning them to get the NK? Just to keep em guessing. My thought is we pick our top four suspects and say we're gonna scan them. We don't have to actually do it, just make the threat.

Third hummed cheerfully to himself, happy to have a two name buddies who were gonna be his best friends forever and ever. "Nothing will ever come between the Three Musketeers." ツ

Your argument is you said to Striker that Connie (Rithmatist) seemed like the thief. Striker said no, they aren't. This was based on the fact that Connie took an action in the same round a robbery happened. Why would allowing you to think Connie is the thief be advantageous to village!Striker? It's false, and disinformation hurts the village. On the flip side, Elim!Striker has an incentive to let you think Connie was the Thief. No one has called for a thief exe in this game. Stink has been open thiefing and no one had taken issue with it. It would be a safe role for an Elim to be believed to have, and possibly prevent them from being exed. I don't think this is a good reason to sus Striker. If you're village, I think you're mistakenly thinking Striker used doc knowledge to know Connie wasn't a thief. If so, I'm sure Striker would be happy to walk you through his reasoning. If you're an Elim, this looks like an excuse to cast a vote, either to bus or vote a villager when an Elim is in danger. I'm certain one of the candidates right now is an Elim. I might move to one of those wagons later, I just want to document what I believe is a bad vote. Double bluff. Someone was gonna say it, it might has well be you. Edit: I just realized that what's really bugging me about this is along with Gears', this is the second bad vote on Striker this round. I don't know what's behind them, but I don't like the trend. I have completely lost track of how many protective items we have. Are people running low? I'd assumed we have 5 to 10 in village hands at the moment, but that's not based on any data. Are people drawing LoW this round or are we counting on the clock? We should get that cleared up. Striker might have to pass it to get it used.

I've been ninjad six times writing this. Gak. My PM buddy is claiming vanilla, and it would be a bad idea to lie about that with the bookkeeper role in the game. Assuming there were vanillas got us in trouble in QF50, but I feel okay thinking there are some in this one. If we're assuming there is an Elim doctor, dying people should do their best to make them slip and reveal their identities. Have fun with that. However, the hospital doc is published publicly afterwards, ya? So the elims might be blindsided by a revelation, but I don't think it's integral to their team to have a doctor. My guess is either 2 village doctors or one village and one Elim. At most there'll be three. I'm guessing a maximum of two trappers. The Elim team will likely have 3 or 4 people. 5 is ridiculous in a parity game, they'd win after three rounds. 25% makes much more sense. My post was small, I can understand it being missed. You with the RP birds, are you claiming Aviar roles? *** Third quite liked the sound of the Three Musketeers, even though he didn't know what a musket was. He also found the man poking around the bar funny. People had spoken highly of him in the snippets of conversation he'd heard. "Ya know, regular people are okay at division. They can chop things into fourths no problem. But to be a real pro you have to be able to chop things into quarters, then quarter those quarters! Sixteenth is apparently really good at it. I've even heard people on the ship call him the quartermaster."

Okay, I misremembered what you did again. Checking my post, you actually tried to kill Illwei! Bad! Much sus! VC, just to have it, asterisks on people with no reasons: Striker: Gears, Araris, Ventyl Gears: Mist*, Striker, TUO* TUO: Kas, TJ Ventyl, did you say to Striker that Connie was a thief or the Thief? An Elim would be happy to let their teammate appear to be the neutral.

Gears’ stab confuses me. Let’s assume he’s a villager. He said after his Illwei ISO he was suspicious of Stiker and scanned them. They had Striker on record as saying they didn’t have it, so in their excitement, Gears called them out. If this is the case, it looks like conf bias. They did not consider that Striker was a villager trying to avoid being robbed or RBed. Knowing they have it, their post reads to me as either an elim hoarding the clock or a villager stating their plan to see if everyone likes it without tipping their hand, which I can see someone doing. * Now let’s assume he’s an elim. He knows in advance that Illwei will die. That makes Striker, who tunneled them for a while and made a theory based on three villagers being an elim team, look suspicious. He also knows he’s been taking some heat by players like Araris and that he will be floated as an exe candidate the next day. He needs to present a viable counter-candidate, so he scans Striker’s action. But what if he hadn’t gotten the clock? He’d have to sus them without a smoking gun. However, it’s helpful to know where the clock is. Perhaps the elims scanned everyone they thought might grab it. Or just Stiker and were going to assume Alvron (that’s the other person who said they’d grab it right) got it if Striker came up blank. I’m kind of assuming Gears has the specialization now, but that’s not actually confirmed. Or maybe another elim scanned and Gears is just reporting what they found. That seems easily disprovable if they got scanned themselves though. Maybe the other person who tried to grab the map failed so they’re assuming it was Striker. Bold accusation if that’s the case, and risks a scan catching them. Alternatively, Striker and Gears are elims trying to put some distance between each other. They could have decided one of them was going to die soon anyway so they should bus to get the other village cred. They can now pass the Thief the clock to get it out of the way and one of them will look decent coming out of this. The v/v thing makes sense to me, but I’ve been privately sussing them both, so I think it’s conf bias talking. Hm. * I still have a map. It’s not valuable, so it’s a low priority thief target. Filling the Camp Supply helps the village more than the elims, but they get some use out of it too. So I feel comfortable sitting on it for now. (Despite what TJ just said.)

Counter proposal: if you got the clock, shoot me a PM and use it tonight. I'd hate for it to be hoarded then stolen. I'll confirm someone says they'll do it, then no one will need to draw lines. The advantage of this is it's unlikely they will be roleblocked. As a request though, please, no one deny you have the clock. Let's keep it ambiguous. Illwei was an interesting choice. I'd started calling them strong village in my reads, but it provides us more info than killing a random low poster would. Now I'm paranoid it was a setup to make Ventyl look good. If anyone re reading the thread sees someone shifted to supporting Illwei in the last two rounds, call it out. Striker comes to mind, if I'm remembering things right. I'll probably grab the acid. It's about time I helped defend the camp. The gun would be an unfortunate thing for converted!me to have in my possession. Last night I taught someone a specialization. Edit: I am suspicious of anyone who 'forgets to take an action'. It's a good cover for using chalk in nefarious ways. So save yourself the suspicion and taaaake your acccctions

@Liranil @The Unknown Order "Third?" said Third, surprised to see Third and Third. "Name buddies! It's my lucky day!" That was a joke, because for Third, every day was lucky. "You two aren't, you're not 'a thing' right? I don't want to intrude if so. I'd hate to be a third wheel." First two people talking are the LG dead? Makes sense. Hi guys! I read the rules and loved them but that was days ago so I need to find some time to re read before I do any speculation. Orlock's character name doesn't match everyone else's. SUSPICIOUS.

Hey Quinn, nice name update! I feel bad hitting Flyingbooks when they're blue busy, so I'm willing to switch to Connie, even though I think both are elims. Out of Illwei and Connie, Mat's money was on the latter. Now here comes the moral dilemma. The rules say no using outside information about a person to judge their gameplay. But Connie has repeatedly stated in games that they don't lie in SE. So I feel okay using that meta to speculate that when they said "I'm definitely evil" they were telling the truth, full stop. Come, join me Striker! Take the low hanging fruit! Connie Flyingbooks

I cn confirm I didn't give Araris Warding. Re-doing my analysis from last night because I messed up. -TJ bribed my vote on Illwei to be on Matrim. Looking at this, there’s actually no proof TJ bribed, but it was a quick, bold lie if it was one. -Illwei cancelled my vote on them that had been bribed to Matrim -Ventyl cancelled Illwei’s vote on Matrim. Ventyl did say, in RP the night after “She’d used her Rithmatic abilities to insure the indecision of the group would truly be left up to fate.” I’d missed that earlier. I appreciate them claiming it promptly. I still don’t think it was a valid reason, as Illwei and Mat’s self pres lines would have cancelled each other out and any other manipulation would have been enlightening, but at least they aren’t hiding it. TJ and Illwei cancelled each other out to Illwei’s potential detriment. Therefore not e/e. If they were all elims, the effect was a tie with Illwei on the line when they had one to begin with without wasting three resources. Therefore not e/e/e. TJ and Ventyl’s actions alone would still result in Matrim’s exe, but make Ventyl look good from their flip. However, it makes TJ look bad for protecting Illwei and hurting Mat, so I’m skeptical they’d hedge their bets like this. Probably not e/e Ventyl and Illwei doesn’t make sense because Ventyl’s cancel could have gotten Illwei killed. It was reasonable for lone v!Illwei to assume Mat would self pres and try to counter it. Lone elim!Illwei would also want to self pres. V!TJ has been consistently pro Illwei, anti Mat, so their bribe makes sense. Lone elim!TJ would have gotten Mat killed and framed Illwei, which does make sense. V!Ventyl tried to save Mat, a flipped villager, which looks good in retrospect. Lone Elim!Ventyl manipulating a v/v vote would have gotten Illwei killed. The goal being to frame Matrim, I guess? My elim!preference would be to let the tie happen naturally and then sus the survivor, or kill Matrim because the case is easier against Illwei. I don’t like them saying they wanted balance by breaking a tie, but I’m struggling to see the evil goal. TL;DR, none of TJ, Illwei, and Ventyl are elim teammates, based on their vote manipulation. None of their actions taken solo are distinguishable from what village!them would do, which the possible exception of Ventyl. TJ had the option to claim a failed grab or the Defense as one higher than it was and said they drew a LoW, instead of saying they bribed. Claiming it looks villagey because they accept responsibility for Matrim’s death. My elim suspicions on them counted on them being teammates with Illwei, and I no longer think that’s the case. Ventyl could also have concealed their manip to make Illwei look bad. There was the risk a scanner saw them do it, but if that was a concern, they could have done nothing to the vote and grabbed an item instead. I’m not ready to exe them on the sole basis of this manip anymore. (I am not considering their other posts in this analysis, so if they’ve said something elimmy I see later this may change.) Illwei had no teammates help them out, which either means they thought the tie would remain intact and were feeling lucky, were willing to cut them loose, or she’s not an elim. For this reason I am losing confidence in my assessment of them as an elim, but will not discount the fact that a successful CW on Matrim popped up in under three hours to at least give them a chance. Devotary is either e/e with Illwei or believes they are not an elim. Despite knowing I was the Non, they didn’t vote on Illwei, and when it was between Illwei and Mat, they chose Mat. However, Devo doesn’t vote early or often much anyway. TJ is another solid Illwei supporter, but not an elim teammate. Striker was dead wrong about the Quinn-Matrim-Illwei team theory. That looks bad, but hey, I’ve been advocating for Illwei’s exe too. Would the elim team hit Quinn and risk highlighting how wrong elim!Striker was? Probably not. Would elim!Illwei want to do it to make v!Striker look bad and themselves look good? Yeah, that’s a possibility. Mat’s flip helps my D1 theory that the elims were happy about the v/v(/v), so they sat on their votes and let what happened happen. This about five of them, surely at least one of the group voted. The classic elim move would be to be the second or third person on the wagon, but I’ll mention the whole list: FlyingBooks, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade, Devotary of Spontaneity The only hole there is that Gears has been acting suspicious, so they might actually be an elim. But in that case, it looks even worse to have voted for Matrim, because it protects an elim! I still think most of the people who moved to the Dannex CW were villagers because it was too bold for an elim to do on D1. If I think Illwei is an elim, Devo looks sus, but Illwei is the better info kill, so I reserve the right to switch to them after I have an epiphany. TJ I’ve got a village read on now. Striker I have a small reason to believe is village, so I’ll tag the fourth person: Ventyl Flyingbooks

It would be better to give it to a villager to lower their strength repeatedly. Edit: I meant up the defense @Sart can the Thief start with a specialization? Also, the most recent quicklink appears to be broken. The over protection looks like Elims trying to gain village cred, so I'm naturally suspicious of anyone really advertising that they helped tonight. Or maybe RNG just messed it up. Quinn seemed paranoid about being killed tonight. I'm curious if they discussed it in anyone's PM's. I'm naturally suspicious of any vote manipulation, especially when the will of the village is to let fate decide. TJ bribed me to vote on a villager, which an Elim could use to frame Illwei. Ventyl also vote maniped, and was slow to tell the group. They removed a vote from Illwei, which could be an Elim trying to frame Illwei, or protecting a teammate. If TJ and Ventyl are teammates, they could have done the double tap instead of a single to counter an Illwei self pres manip. If Illwei was teamed with TJ they'd have avoided cancelling the bribe. If Ventyl and Illwei are together, they would not have known about the bribe and their actions would make sense. So to recap: Illwei and TJ are not both elims, Ventyl and TJ could be e/e, Illwei and Ventyl could be e/e. TJ's bribe is consistent with their support of Illwei in debate and D1 Mat vote. They were wrong, but it seems consistent. So I'll add the pressure on Ventyl. I really didn't like their manip.

My personal philosophy this game is that so long as I am a villager, I will play to maximize the chances of the Rithmatists. My being converted would be detrimental to the village's chances, so I am trying to avoid it. (Although there isn't much I can do now that my identity is known.) Making preparations that would help me if I become an Elim would, in my mind, be working against my current wincon. I will not be doing it. I am open to corroborating people's actions, and would suggest put me in a group PM with a second person you trust if you would like to declare anything, but will point out that if I am converted, I will be able to tell the elims everything I know, including specializations and inventories I am told about. Additionally, I am an easy NK target. The potential for conversion may not be enough to convince the elims to spare me. If I die tonight, I wish you all the best of luck.

I will be teaching Araris a specialization tonight. It will be done via a training montage which culminates in a dramatic moment when they defeat me for the first time in a practice duel and I know that they are Ready. Alternatively: "Hey, hey you! I'm a non Rithmatist and I even I know you're holding your chalk backwards!" Please don't roleblock me, villagers. I will also make the obvious observation that given the series of events that transpired, Illwei and TJ are very likely not an e/e pair because of their lack of coordination. Which is notable because TJ has been strongly supportive of Illwei otherwise.

Rood. Rood. Good news you guys! I WAS ROBBED! I submitted an action to grab the map and was unsuccessful. I was also informed that my bribe disappeared, so it was either revoked or stolen by the thief. I need to decide who to teach a specialization to tonight. I'll put it in thread shortly before rollover.

The photograph was faded and creased from folding. It was smudged with long-dried tears. In it was a tall adult in a ruby-red Rithmatist coat, the same Evan wore now. The young man clutched the picture in his hands as he rocked back and forth nervously. He had a bad feeling about how the day was going to go. “Hey Dad.” Instinctively he coughed, deepening his voice before he spoke again. But he was whispering anyway. No one would hear. No one would care, not with death at their door. “I made it. Mom said you’d be here. Somewhere.” He wiped his nose with his too-big sleeve. “I don’t belong here. I think I’m allergic to chalk, I hate it, I hate it so much. I just…” He took a deep, shuddering breath. “I wish I could have found you.” *** I am the Non-Rithmatist. Last Night, I taught Devotary a specialization, then claimed to them in a PM at the start of the Day. I am aware of what specialization I taught them but will not disclose it. I chose them because I knew from a PM that they did not start with a Specialization. I have not told anyone else about it so as not to spoil voting analysis. Quinn was the last person I was waiting for a commitment to a position from before continuing, but since they have essays, I'm putting this up now. I am okay being robbed because I did not start with a piece of chalk that I can lose. All I have is a bribe. I think the way the Shadowblaze works is it is not consumed when handed to me. If I can make it so the Thief robbing me is a regular occasion, or likely event, the way the Order of Operations is set up, the turn after I receive the Shadowblaze, if the Thief targets me, it would be stolen before converted evil me can off-load it. And then the elims lose the powers of the item, so it’s safer to just not convert me and hoard it instead. That’s the best defense I could think of, since the GM confirmed I can’t refuse an item pass. I know it’s not infallible, but how about we come back to this once the Shadowblaze comes into play and focus on other people in the meantime? For now, I’m guaranteed good.

I've chopped out everything I'm not responding to because that was a beautiful beast of a post. 1. Fair point. 2. *shrugs* Sometimes people misremember when people said stuff. Or maybe he's trying to pocket bacon me. (pocket me using bacon) 3. Is being a coward an acceptable defense in these situations? I'm not going to break a D1 tie or try to CW unless I have a good secondary target. I didn't have any, so I left it as is. Messing with votes is a good way to get read as an elim. I expressed my sympathy to Matrim in our PM, but didn't lift a finger to help them. It's a fair criticism. 4. My reason for grabbing the bribe is I was planning for when the Supply runs out of Valuable items. I figured the Neutral could easily grab three or four items, then the fifth would be the hard one. It'd be worse if people started using the bribes. We don't need vote manipulation powers, so I took it and will sit on it until I am robbed. I could be robbed at any minute, it's very exciting. Hey, aren't you supposed to be the thief, TJ? I'm helping youu 5. I think he's used directs quotes for all the questions of mine he has answered 6. Unofficial Vote Count: Illwei (5): Ashbringer, STINK, Striker, Archer, Ventyl Archer (5): Matrim, Random Bystander, Kas, TJ, Araris Flyingbooks: Mist *Illwei will probably self-pres if it comes to it Hey Araris, any reason for the village Kas read? I had them down as a possible suspect.

Looking at our PM, it appears that yes, Illwei did mention wanting to take the Book of Vigor on Friday (D1) and that they hadn't told Striker about it. I apologize for having forgotten about that. It came up when they voted Connie. I said why you do this. They said because they mentioned something that someone had told them that I don't think that person would have told them if they weren't e/e. I guessed it was Striker telling Connie about their book choice. They said no, although I'm going for Vigor. I wasn't going for books, so I promptly forgot that piece of information. Also, Illwei, I'm disappointed you gave no reasons for voting me. (Your post just now clarified it though, so we good.) Does anyone have any other suspects they'd like to discuss? Asking now so it doesn't come up shortly before rollover and cause mass chaos and vote switching. Random Bystander got poked, and Quinn had a very short crusade against Ashbringer, but otherwise it's been a two way race so far. Unofficial Vote Count: Illwei (5): Ashbringer, STINK, Striker, Archer, Ventyl Archer (3): Matrim, Random Bystander, Illwei Random Bystander (1): Kas

*I've edited the above post to add numbers and remove things I'm not responding to. 1. Here's the link. You did a Striker/Matrim conversation analysis and concluded with "Okay anyways basically I see Striker more suspicious than mat here tbh." (source) and then you said "I think that Striker looks more suspicious technically out of all of it" (source) 2. *facepalm* To be fair, if Matrim flips elim, you should be looking at me for more than just that typo. I did not mean to say bus. Some other form of transportation such as a wagon or train is what I was going for. 3. That's still close to a tie in a game with 23 people slinging votes. But you're right, for some reason the site meta is to give people a free pass to create ties, but not break them. But I consider them to be similar actions. 4. This is the one I was thinking of. Best early-game strat for avoiding elimination is avoid attention. Stuff like this looked like avoiding criticism. I sense you've reached the point where you feel you've responded to all the accusations leveled against you, while I feel your explanations don't fully clear you, so we're at an impasse. For me it comes down to my reads of your activity seem sus, and your clarifications after the fact aren't sufficient to make me move my vote. *shrug* 5. My theory is that no villager would vote manip D1 because the suspect pool is arbitrary anyway. Not worth it. The Thief has better things to do. So that leaves elims. The elims would coordinate in the doc, so all elims would know that one is coming. So elim!Ash knows there's no manip, or would at least double check, at which point he'd notice he was wrong and not make a post with an obvious lie. So it seemed like a villagey mistake. 6. I'm open to a little more structured coordination later when we really can't afford to waste resources, but for now, I think the randomness will deter Elims from trying to stop it and very likely give us the near minimum we need to protect ourselves. The alternative is to do something like split us all into groups based on alphabetical order or something. We each name an individual who says they'll draw a line. Or we have one person PM a set number of people each cycle and tell them to draw the lines. The problem becomes then the drawers are known and can therefore be stopped. I'm happy with the random strategy until it fails, at which point we can discuss what went wrong. Failure may include over-use of chalk, by the way. But that shouldn't happen. 7. And if you assume it was unintentional, then anyone who was protected is not an elim because they tried to kill them and failed. stawwwwp trying to pocket me. Alvron complimented I think Ash on D1 and I was this close to screaming pocketer Leaning too heavily into a non-faction-related goal would be an elim strategy, but you've been helping the village in other ways so I'm still leaning null/village. Hmm. Yup, I can see both a villager and an elim saying that. And a Thief, with a smirking emoji in white text. *checks for white text* ^ my bad I'd say don't wait until you have a smoking gun. Trust your gut, that's how you get leads in this game. If you want to vote on me, I don't mind. (This only applies to Random. If anyone else does it, I will make you justify it.) Far as I can tell, people thought it was a v/v and decided to pick someone else. Lacking other good targets, they settled on an inactive, because they felt less bad killing them than someone participating more openly. I'm lowkey sussing you now because that's a villagey question to ask, but that had already been discussed, so it comes too late to be really villagey. I said to Mat in our PM that I think Illwei is more sus than Connie when it came up. I think that's part of it.

Meanwhile, in the elim doc: Illwei: hey can someone suggest some other targets in thread besides me?? TJ: I gotchu, let me get a post together I kid. Giving TJ the benefit of the doubt because they snatched a lantern (which I thought was Valuable, thanks for the correction, Quinn), let's look at their other sus: TUO. They posted more than I remembered. "Actually, Sart, if you are an Elim Non-Ritmatist and get the Shadowblaze, do you become a normal Rithmatist? Just to balance that." I think they meant Rithmatist without a specialization? Pretty overt ask from an Elim +V "I personally will only be taking items during the day and will be do Lines of Warding at night (post specialization)." "...I'm planning on using a line of warding on myself every night." "I was confusing Warding and Forbiddance, that is unfortunate." Either assumes they'll be able to re-use chalk, get new chalk every night, or isn't actually planning on using it. +E Stink to Gears: You know people say [we should avoid a D1 kill] every game right. "Yes, but it's different this game, I'm against it because we can analyse who takes items and who doesn't and what they take tonight? This night? In the night cycle? I don't know." Later, they did said analysis. +V for consistency, +E for not wanting to exe Flyingbooks: Since there's no vote minimum, if nobody votes is the exe chosen completely at random? "yup." NAI Ash: I don't like either exe "How about we find enough people to remove all the votes from either one?" Obviously a joke. The previous response indicates they've read the rules by this point, so they know chalk is one-use. So they aren't seriously suggesting a mass vote manip. But. It's an anti-village-power attitude. So +E "Ok, I'm gonna do some item taking analysis. Ventyl grabbed a Piece of Chalk NAI Agreed The Unknown Order grabbed a Piece of Chalk The most village thing villaging villagable. Heh Kasimir grabbed a Piece of Chalk NAI Agreed Araris Valerian grabbed a Bucket of Acid Mild village move, could be under radar elim, if lantern users don't see extra defense we should exe. Agreed Mist grabbed a Bribe Possible thief, I also doubt a elim would grab this especially during the day. Agreed, if only because that's a boring way to win Archer grabbed a Bribe Same as Mist. Agreed Condensation grabbed a Spring-Powered Crab Village, could be elim hoarding. Agreed Devotary of Spontaneity grabbed a Spring-Powered Crab Same as Connie. Agreed Quinn grabbed a Lantern This is very village imo. Agreed TJ Shade grabbed a Lantern Same here. Agreed Gears grabbed a Book of Making Null+ can be used for very village things, but can also be used for elim spying. Agreed Ashbringer grabbed a Book of Revocation Null×, possible thief. This is the most elimy one to me, I wouldn't think thief Flying Books grabbed a Book of Vigor Mild elim, they would want one quite a bit I think. Agreed. Second most elimy one to me Alvron grabbed a Map Possible thief move, could also want Shadowblaze, shows disinterest in the gun, could be faked. Maps aren't valuable, why think thief? Someone will use the maps soon enough anyway, no need to grab it. Side note, I just realized the map is on the list. I have no idea how I missed it the first three times I read it. This shows my non-gut reads." I largely agree with them. +V Illwei: Why do you think the thief would want the book of Revocation? to stop other people from being able to steal as well? "Mostly, also it gives them an excuse to steal items, even if it doesn't work on a Specialized Making scan." This only makes sense if the thief is worried about being caught by a scan AND being exed if their role is revealed, both of which are unlikely. +E for covering for their elim buddies grabbing that book. Oh, Ashbringer grabbed it? ... Right. Okay it's null. "I'm not doing reads beyond the items for now, so that's up to everyone else" Interesting choice. +E for hoarding all the cleverness Quinn: Ah. Right. That... makes sense. Though I would still say it's NAI for a villager to take the Book just to keep elims from having it. After all, we're allowed to choose not to use our Specializations if we want to. Edit: I phrased that poorly XD I would say it's NAI because a villager might take the book just to keep the elims from having it. "Everything's NAI using that reasoning, even village things are NAI because of elims. I would rather have those as Null+/- but that's me." Agreed +V Illwei: I can't win this can I.... "Nope. I would like a few tinfoil products though, I know a few tineyes who would be very grateful." "Shhh, don't break my cover, non-cosmerical aluminum trade is illegal, didn'cha know?" "Yes, yes, nothing illegual goin on round here." NAI Sart: This is false. All roles besides the Non-Rithmatist can draw Lines, including the Thief. "That's what I thought but I didn't say it because I thought it said different in the rules. Would there be any difference between a Specialized Revocation and the thief's ability?" "Can Specialized Making tell the difference?" I also made this assumption. Good question, but all three parties would be interested in Thief knowledge. NAI In conclusion, the only elimy thing they've said so far in my opinion was the highlighted set of posts. If @The Unknown Order can clarify what they meant in that exchange, I'm actually most inclined to put them on the null/village list. Although I'm sure at this point if I did this kind of a look on anyone, it'd produce similar results. Good elims will be mostly village seeming except for a few slips. So I'm officially nulling them in my reads for now. TJ, as for the post of mine you bring up, I can see why you'd think grabbing a bribe is elimy. My excuse is I'm trying to be as nice as possible to the neutral this game, and correctly guessed that bribes would be a hot commodity in the night when the elims can grab them to mess with us later. I also know better than to attempt blatant vote manipulation. I'd grab some chalk and Silence people if I wanted to play that game. It's less traceable.

Illwei Happy? I meant to vote on you, forgot to do that after I copy pasted it out of Word. Thanks for the reminder. *** Evan eyed the tense stand-off between Duncan and Grace. He began to chant under his breath. "Duel... duel... duel..."

Evan woke from a nightmare, looking around in a panic, expecting to see a chalk outline on the ground somewhere. But there was none. He got to his feet, pacing. “We gotta get out of here,” Evan said, walking to the Camp Supply. “There’s maps here, right? We can find a river, another storehouse… anything is better than here. With what we got, we can probably last today and tomorrow, then I want out!” *** -I was waiting for one of the old guys with an affinity for ties to come in and say ah ha! and solve everything, but then Araris’ post reminded me they’re mostly playing it chill this game. -Being cynical, Illwei made a read on D1 that Striker was more suspicious than Matrim, so tunneling!Striker may have seen that as defending Mat and threatening him and decided he needs to be aggressive. If any of them flip, yes we need to look at everyone who CWed to kill Dannex (as doing so either to protect Mat or Gears). But I think some people switched because they didn’t like either option at the time. The votes on Gears were placed in the first hour for a NAI reason. The Matrim bus was based on the impression of some kind of a slip, so it was justified, but then Matrim started acting really villagery. Everyone knows reads are villagey, but at the time, my gut said this is a guy who is about to be mis-exed. Unfortunately, it looked like a v/v pair of wagons to me, so I stuck with my most elimy read for an exe. The people who did create a CW did so in a pretty villagey way for villagey reasons. Quinn was thinking along the same lines as me, so unless they planned it in the elim doc to justify it (which is still a possibility), it looked like they were genuinely convinced. The target was an inactive, which I’m not sure elims trying to CW would have thought to do. More likely they would have piled on Gears or Matrim, whichever isn’t on their team. Everyone knows it’s sus to make a last minute CW. The fact that there hadn’t been much movement late in the day was screaming v/v vote that the elims are content to sit on. Which is why everyone sitting on Gears is on my mild sus list. Caveat: I don’t like Burnt’s vote because if they truly wanted to vote on whoever everyone else is voting on, they could have voted on the last red name they saw. If Mat flip elim, Burnt is my top pick for a teammate. Now that I’ve soft cleared the Danex CW, here’s why I think Illwei, the person who started it, is an elim. My conspiracy theory is elims also know that people who break ties are sus, and they knew it was v/v, so Illwei just needed to pick a third party vote that wouldn't be tested. They used their several vote switches to distance from a teammate without endangering them (I'll be looking at those if they flipe elim), then settled on a safe, inactive target. Then the CW happened. Ashbringer and Quinn saw the v/v, Burnt had reasons I’m unsure of, Mat self-presed. Ventyl hopped on because why not. It was all worth a shot, but probably told us less than a D1 vote could have in the end. But that’s how I think things happened. Before anyone says ‘your tinfoil’s heating up so much you could bake a potato on it’, I think this is a reasonable explanation that has openings to add or subtract elements I’m unsure of. Anyway, Illwei has been bad under pressure so far. Cagey answers, inconsistent between what they say they’re doing and what they actually do, trying to call out Connie but not pushing very hard when it didn’t get traction (both Matrim and Illwei have told me they find Connie suspicious, interestingly, so add that to your web, Striker), -Quinn says they used a Line of Forbiddance on themselves, which is their Specialization. I think I remember them saying earlier that they expected people to use their chalk for things other than Lines of Warding, which would foreshadow this choice, but I’m confused why they did it. There’s a thief, night kill, and any offensive lines flying around to worry about, but they’re still one target among a big group. I would have saved my chalk and hoped that the low probability of being hit would have been enough to protect me. It seems like a waste of chalk, a limited resource. Unless they’re making a statement? I doubt they’ll be targeted now that they’ve done this, as attackers wouldn’t want to waste their action, assuming Quinn has at least one chalk piece from their night grab. -Lanterns are hard for elims to manipulate because there’s two of them. They’d have to control both and be able to make plausible lies about the readouts that hurt the village. I agree that it would be better to go for other items, so village points to TJ and Quinn. @thief if you want the lanterns the elims would thank you for taking them out of the game, but you risk wasting an action being blocked by Quinn. So it’d be much better to just rob me, your friendly neighbourhood bribe-man. -Not killing at night seems like an experienced player move. I wouldn’t have thought of it, so, breaking news, the elim team has at least one big brain boi on it. -In PMs, Illwei said Connie was sus of me, and I was very confuzzled and wanted to know what their reasoning was. Turns out it was over a single sentence I’d said to them, allegedly. -I'm grabbing a map today. I didn't grab anything in the night, because I have nothing to hide *pew pew, finger guns* -Reads List: Village: Ashbringer (village!slipped saying there was vote manipulation, CW’d Dannex), Quinn (I think they’re trying to scare the elims out of NKing them, and they seemed genuinely convinced by Matrim’s villagey reads list), Matrim (even though they think I’m an elim), Ventyl (broke tie from what I think is v/v), Devo (for not liking sudden trains, which is usually a good instinct), TJ (lantern) Null: Striker (I want to village them, but I think they’re wrong/tunnelling based on a v/v/v vote. Maybe we got one on the first day, maybe the elims just sat on their votes and let chance decide) Sus List (most to least): Illwei, one of [Kasimir, STINK, Araris], Flyingbooks (voted, but without making a splash. And voted on me at one point!)

This count is correct. I'll add the order, for later reference: Stink on Gears, Araris on Gears, Kas on Gears, Mist on Random (fittingly), Illwei on Kas, Mat on Quinn, Mat on Striker, TJ on Mat, Ashbringer on Flying, Striker on Mat, Illwei on Ash, Flyingbooks on Archer, Illwei on Kas, Archer on Flying, Illwei on Connie, Ventyl on Mat, Quinn on Mat, Ventyl RETRACTS Mat, Mat on Gears, Flying books on Mat, Ventyl on Mat. I don't like the wagon on Gears because it's an easy excuse for a mis-exe. As far as I can tell, they only ever RP being evil, they never actually act against the village's interests when village claiming elim. However, that conversation has been had many times over, so let's not get into it now. I think Matrim is the most suspicious of a group of very neutral-village people, but not enough to vote for them. If I'm reading the situation correctly, I think Flyingbooks and I both tried to poke-vote each other and they both flopped, so I'm moving my vote to Illwei because of the way they presented their arguments about Connie. They thought they'd caught a slip, but then were cagey about it. Why mention it at all, and vote for them, if you aren't going to argue the case more persuasively? You have to know what you've said so far won't result in them being exed. *** “You clock-brain!” Evan fell to his side as the Rithmatist in front of him spilled a bucket of water in his direction. Heedless of the mud on his coat, Evan quickly grasped at his lapel pocket. He checked inside, then breathed a sigh of relief. “Acid burn your toes off or something?” Annoyed, he got to his feet. “Watch where you’re going, mate. Or I’ll bring your name up at the next court martial.” He started storming off then turned, staring at the man who was trying to apologize. Then he shook his head and marched away in a huff. “Too young anyway,” he muttered. *** Unofficial Vote Count Update Gears (4): STINK, Araris Valerian, Kasimir, Matrim's Dice Random Bystander (1): Mist Matrim's Dice (5): TJ Shade, StrikerEZ, Quinn0928, Flyingbooks, Ventyl (new addition) Flyingbooks (1): Ashbringer Condensation (1): Illwei Illwei (1): Archer (new addition)

I'll play as Third of the Eclipse, who is ridiculously lucky.

Granted, a blocky leg made of wind kicks you in the face. I wish for all cars to go weeeee when driven.