Archer
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Everything posted by Archer
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Late in D1, when it was a 4-4 tie, why didn't elim!Dannex vote Illwei to make it 4-5 to give themselves some breathing room? They voted Tani, which I don't think make sense for an elim to do.
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Forge is my steampunk nickname for Forget Me Not Also, new thought about TUO. Maybe the elims just wanted to avoid hitting someone the bodyguard would protect...
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-Starting with Quinn’s vote late in C1, she made it Illwei (4), Dannex (4), Archer (2), Randby (1). Tani made an odd post that seemed to sheep Araris, then quick-edit change their mind, and gave the general impression of being somewhat rushed. Dannex seized on that and voted for Tani. What’s the elim play here? Starting a CW on Tani in the last half-hour is too blatant for the elims to pull off without taking serious heat later. Were they bussing Dannex already? Because Dannex’s vote does nothing I can see to keep them alive, which is the primary goal of an elim. It would have made more sense to vote for Illwei in self-preservation. But it was then a tie, so perhaps they were trusting their trusty vote-manipulating teammate. Suddenly, Striker switches, bringing Dannex into the lead! If they’re e-e, that decreases the effectiveness of the vote manipulation plan. Why not just vote for Illwei? Flyingbooks check in to, in my mind, prove they aren’t e-e with Dannex because they declined to vote. And here comes Ashbringer with another vote on Dannex! If he’s their teammate, they must be bussing. It would be better to manip off Striker’s vote and take the chances in a tie than to go for a bus this early in the game. If they didn’t have manipulation, vote Illwei to make a tie. Or just don’t vote and quietly cut your loses. I can see Striker and Ashbringer being individual elims just causing chaos, but they’re drawing unnecessary attention to themselves in the process. Why cast a deciding vote for someone you know is village and may flip at rollover? And then Striker ties it at the end. If he made the tie to save Dannex, why’d he vote them in the first place to put them in danger? If he’s just a crazy elim, why is he so publicly contradicting himself about his stance on ties? It’s such a risky, convoluted play for so little gain. So from the voting shenanigans, I rule out there being any connection between Striker, Dannex, and Ashbringer. I also have a village read on all three of them. If they are elims, they have a strange game-plan. I made the cut-off as after Quinn’s vote, but since Illwei flipped village, you could make the argument that Quinn were trying to defend them with their vote on Dannex. But I think it was a v/v tie situation, so elims wouldn’t care. A lot of my Striker reads so far have been something to the effect of ‘an elim wouldn’t be careless enough to hedge like that or contradict themselves’. Maybe I just have too high an opinion of them -Re: TUO kill. Gears made me think of this, so I checked whether they crumbed being Dalinar or Elhokar. As far as I can tell, they didn’t give any indication that they had a special role like that. -It’s my opinion that at least one elim always votes in C1. Removing people I’ve village read, the suspect list therefore becomes Forge, Araris, Elandera, TJ Shade, Whysper, Quinn. I agree with Araris that I don’t think we’ve pushed the right people with our votes yet, so a new target is in order. TJ’s poke on Reading seemed helpful, so I’m not ready to vote for them. They’re running a game, so I don’t think I’d get much from them anyway in terms of response. I think I’ll tap Elandera, for having a very middle vote on a wagon that killed a villager. I don’t really remember them saying any red flags, but I’m low on suspects. Apologies for the weak reasoning. I am diversifying the field and seeing what happens. Speaking of which, unsolicited VC: Dannex (2): Elandera, Quinn Araris: Striker TJ: Araris Striker: Whysper Elandera: Archer
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I made the list with everyone but myself in it, then switched out the NK with my own name. Otherwise, everyone kind of got paired up with people who have similar playstyles or engagement levels, hoping that like can read like. Randby tends to play a low profile game. Normally I wouldn't crusade against that too much, but just for some contraversy... in the MR game they were elim in, they basically said in the elim doc, I'll avoid attention by not voting or saying too much. That's strategy worked. What's the difference between your behaviour in the MR and in this game, @Random Bystander? To clarify, I am surprised TUO was targeted. It's unusual for this website for someone with their profile to be hit early. They are alive in the ongoing MR, so maybe that's the reason? It wasn't a fear kill anyway, so we can guess there's an experienced Elim in the group calming things down. Edit: TUO you're a fun player to have around, please don't think I'm devaluing your contributions. Quinn has been dying a lot recently. Striker too. I was hit early in the last two MRs. And so on. Maybe they just said let's be nice and switch it up.
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Conversation starter idea. Let’s all go around and share our feelings about each other’s posts so far. Feel free to be as detailed as you’d like. Tani what do you think about Quinn? Araris what do you think about Tani? Quinn what do you think about Gears? Gears what do you think about Araris? Dannex what do you think about Flyingbooks? Randby what do you think about Dannex? Archer what do you think about Randby? Flyingbooks what do you think about Forget me not? Forget me not what do you think about Archer? Elandera what do you think about Ashbringer? Striker what do you think about Whysper? Ashbringer what do you think about TJ? Whysper what do you think about Striker? TJ Shade what do you think about Elandera? *** “Famously Neutral, eh?”” The moment Filico heard those words, the lukewarm clammy feeling that he was fighting dissipated and settled into a shallow pit of dread. In that moment, Filico felt anything but peace in his heart. As he knew he would, Filico raised his hand, and motioned to Anorast to draw his sword. “But before you two can reunite,” he started, putting the content warning on this chapter. [o.O] *** OOOh, low info kill! An elim team after my own heart. That’s the kind of kill call I would make. Makes me think the active players are either elims or making good points.
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Striker-Quinn is the same dynamic as Illwei-Quinn with opposite energy This comment specifically stuck out to me as an implicit village read. In the process of trying to find it, I realized that you made that comment before you voted on me, not after you'd moved on to other targets, as I'd remembered. That's on me for engaging in revisionist history. Random question, did anyone start with money? I started with zero spheres and I want to check that the GM isn't trolling us. I just need confirmation someone, anyone started with an amount of money greater than zero...
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The difference is indeed just the brackets. People already do that sometimes with their retractions, I figured if everyone does it, RG colourblind people can follow along more easily. Also, Tani, votes cast at night don't count, but I think you figured that out already.
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[Very important backstory about Filico, mm yes. I’m so sorry] Filico let the hordelings dissolve back into him, smoothly, instantly on impact. This received a huge cheer from the mummified tribe that was at that moment mesmerized by his showmanship and good sportsmanship. "Quite the champion, young dragon rider!" Ebony said to the girl. She had grabbed an errant seed from the track and crushed it, earning her another round of cheers. "I hope I can become just as good as you!" Soobie gushed, as he returned the high-five. "I hope so too, but let's see how it goes first," Filico said. He let the mummified group climb over the gates. *** -Apologies for exing you, Illwei. My vote was cast for meta reasons. Illwei is alive in the MR, survived LG74, and joined this game to pad the player count (which was much appreciated, by the way). It’s never fun to be the D1 exe, but I felt if I was going to randomly vote, Illwei would be the fairest choice. Knowing that they ostensibly had little at stake in this game, I was watching to see if they would mount an overly strong defence, which might indicate they were an elim. I should have known better; Illwei’s gonna be responsive regardless of their role. But when I signed out Thursday, the most villagey thing they had done in my eyes was village read me, which I twisted in my mind into an attempt to get me to move my vote. I didn’t really have any reads then, and at the time of writing this sentence, pre-thread crawl, I still don’t, besides noting that Quinn village read me too. So I left my vote where it was. At the time, I had something like three votes on me and Illwei had two, which didn’t help things. When I’m playing defence, I have less opportunity to make aggressive reads. I’d rather anyone but me be exed D1, but I’d already decided I wouldn’t self-pres, as the vote manips would see that as an elim tell and kill me for sure. So I left it and hoped the thread would find other targets, which they did. Even if I’d been on, I don’t think I would have moved my vote because, once again, vote manips are a thing, and I’m not one to mess with C1 ties just to absolve myself of blame if they flip village. Now for some proper thread analysis. -I don’t think elim!Striker would have so blatantly followed elim!Araris onto voting me early in the cycle. I’m ruling out them being e-e and village reading Striker because I don’t think elim!they would have followed anyone like that, coupled with their valid rebuttals to my accidental disinformation early in the round. -(I'd be offended, but I know that you're poke voting me.)-Randby, in response to TJ. I think this was a joke, but it felt a little off anyway. Emphasized that the vote was a poke so others wouldn’t follow TJ onto wagoning them. -Flyingbooks was more active than I think I’ve ever seen them be. Good job. I liked what I saw. -Illwei village read Araris, but provided no explanation, so I’m not sure how useful that is to us. -Tani suffered from meta shock, and is operating by a different playbook, so I’m having a terrible time reading them. I think, in their shoes, their actions made sense as a villager. If I was used to no day kills and came in to a game and found everyone going kill-crazy, I’d be concerned too. Elim!them has more incentive to stay quiet about that and let us engage in what they thought was bad strategy. Also, they voted Mat, which precedent says should result in them receiving a billion votes from the overlords, so I think the GM took pity on them because they are a confused villager. Wait a minute, Elandera makes a good point, This isn’t their first SE game. Maybe it’s fake confusion. Hmmm. Is it reasonable to assume they would have known that someone always dies, even if there are no votes, or not. -Fomeno voted for Illwei, which is bad. But it’s also their first game, so I respect their willingness to put themselves on the line. -Dannex and Illwei have very similar writing styles and are generally stream of consciousness thinkers. I think that triggered a bunch of people’s elimdars even though it’s NAI. Dannex leaned a little more into the all the votes on me are without reason! defence, which I have mixed feelings about. They generally have a pretty reactive playstyle, which I don’t think helps them be village read. From my perspective, they made an ‘I’m here!’ post with some flaws, got response pokes with some flaws, then immediately went on the defence and focussed on staying alive for most of the rest of the round. My best advice for you, Dannex, is broaden your focus next cycle so people have a reason to trust you, instead of just hearing reasons to not-exe you. -Araris moved their vote late in the cycle, so I am officially confused about what their Plan is. It obviously has more flexibility than a patterned RNG. Maybe it’s something like they cause chaos with their role, or are playing based entirely on their gut and first instincts. -I didn’t really see anything wrong with how the votes fell late in the cycle. It felt like people solidifying their positions at the end of a cycle without much drama. That includes Flyingbooks’ stance. -Credit to Quinn and Gears for playing high-effort games. It’s NAI for both of them, but if they’re being genuine, the lists are helpful. -As for the results of the cycle, I’m not sure the vote manip tells us much. An elim would definitely mess with a v/v tie to create the conditions for a mis-exe. They’d also correct a v/e tie in their teammate’s favour. A villager would do it to make the results align with their suspicions. I suggest we watch to see their moves as the game progresses before we sus them for their actions. -I’ve yet to decide who to vote for tomorrow. I made some village reads and hope the Bodyguard will protect someone if they aren’t at risk themselves. -In other news, I have received GM confirmation that if the Hps activate Political Vengeance today and everyone votes for themselves D2, the game will end in a tie. Something to consider. Also, if no one comes forward to dispute this by the end of tonight, I’ll assume that there were originally 10 Hps, now nine because of Illwei’s death. OOC: Is this Eliminate (Retract) easier to read than Eliminate Retract? Or do you have an established way of figuring out votes besides context clues and VCs
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Ah yes, now I'll only confuse it with hit points. I recommend that we assume there are 10 Hps. (So, a Level 1 Paladin with a CON score of 10.) If there is a different amount, we can invite an Hp to correct the assumption tonight. Otherwise, if no one comes forward, we will know that 10 is the correct number.
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I think you’re exaggerating how much I advocated for claiming, Striker. It wasn’t a suggestion I expected to be implemented, and you’ll note I mentioned how the elims could abuse it. I’m trying to generate discussion, and that seemed like something people could respond to. And by bringing this up, it discourages people from claiming without thinking through the ramifications. The elims will be watching for claims and trying to figure out who people are in the HP doc. So if you let anything slip, know they’ll record it and use it to help their NK choices. Let’s do a deep dive for a minute. We possibly have eight normal highprinces, Dalinar, Sadeas, five general roles (doorman etc) and Elhokar. That’s a total of 16, which is the number of players we have. Depending how he chose to balance it, Mat either went light on the highprinces and doubled up on some general roles, or he handed out one of each, which I think he did. Had he had under 16, he would have dropped highprinces. So we have a pool of 10 people with one confirmed village role and one confirmed elim role among them, and a pool of 6 people with 1 confirmed villager among them. Having better read the rules, my guess is now that the elims have Sadeas, a highprince, and two regular roles. It would take too long for them to get a majority and gain control of the HP events scheduling mechanic for that to be an issue. Since this is a game with items and scans and craziness, the elims need extra muscle. I’m thinking they have two regular roles, because that gives them a small advantage. If the game were larger, they would get more HP. Anyway, if we get every HP to claim, we then have a pool where I think we have two elims, a valuable villager, and three other villagers who are also special and I love you and you’re all great, go team. I can see a world where we just burn through those as exe targets. Split them into three pairs. Put a pair up for exe every day. Watch when the elims are forced to move in to protect their guys. At worst, we only get a kill in C5, then a guaranteed one in C6. That’s better than nothing. Elhokar would die, but if we misexe every cycle, we're gonna die anyway because the elims will eventually take control of the exe and have NKs too. Are there problems with this? For sure. But I like seeing people consider it because that tells us about their thinking. Until we get a majority who say it’s a good idea (unlikely) I’m sticking to thread/PM safety and staying tight lipped.
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"You are much smarter than I thought." Filico looked at the child quizzically. "Very well, sir, you win this time. Come here and have a piece of the crown. " Filico put the hordeling ball into his mouth and swallowed it whole. Filico walked towards the child and took the crown from him. As Filico started to glow, the child began to cry, begging for his crown back. Filico then spoke, in his usual whisper. "But not yet, little one.” *** So Araris isn't voting in alphabetical order. Or they have a limit of one vote per cycle. Thanks for the explanation though, it'd have been frustrating if you voted for secret reasons and refused to justify them. On that note, I'm hoping you'll confess to being an elim and give up now. Barring that, my vote is less of a poke and more of a placeholder I am content to act on if it comes to it. I chose you out of the pool of people who signed up late and said they'd have low participation rates. If I get a village read on you, I'll switch to a different one of those people. If I get an elim read on someone, I'll move that voting that person. Right now, I've got a neutral read on everyone, but give it a day and I might get a lead and move. That's kind of where I'm at too. So if I have any role, named, highprince, or otherwise, I will not be revealing it. Might as well keep the suspect pool broad. Having the named guys around may be useful when the elims near parity. Here's a situation I can imagine. It's halfway through the game and you're in the highprince doc. Everyone says 'Let's make money fall from the sky!!!'. But when the votes are cast, three princes dissent in a seemingly coordinated fashion and choose to do Anarchy instead. That sure looks like the elim doc decided to try to change the princely effect of the day to one that suited their goals better. But we don't know who those princes are, so we can't act on our suspicions. More subtly, elim princes might regularly advocate for effects that don't help the village as much as other ones would. We might get elim reads on them because of it, but not be able to act on it because we don't know their identities.
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[A flashback probably.] The boy’s head dipped down. Filico lifted his hand and placed it on his chin. “I’m Filico. You’re welcome to stay with me. I’ll tell you about your father.” “My name is Dalar,” the boy said, raising his head. Filico cocked his head to the side and stared at Dalar. He spoke, but as if he didn’t understand what he was saying. “Are you deaf, boy?” “Of course not.” Dalar pointed behind Filico. “It was in this house.” “And you’re the son?” “My sister did not want to raise me,” Dalar said. *** I’m impressed, the program I’m feeding Mat’s former RP into to make Filico’s stories came up with the name Dalar on its own. Somehow I doubt he’ll be a recurring character though. Alrighty, I have corrections to make. Last night, I made some very wrong assumptions. Specifically: -I believed that the only source of new spheres was Highprince-triggered Highstorms -I believed that the game would therefore end before anyone could get more than nine spheres (a starting three, and six from the sky) -I believed that the knife could therefore only be purchased during the half-price sale bonanza -And I believed that the peace contracts could block elim kills Based on that, I thought that the best course of action was for the village to use peace contracts to negate all elim kills, and prevent the elims, who would have cash to spare because they would not buy peace contracts, from getting a knife, because extra kills by the enemy are bad. In retrospect, I should have wondered why Armor was a thing if that all was the case, but I thought maybe it was for elims to buy. Having re-read the rules, even the boring bits, I now realize that controlling the monetary supply will be rather difficult. Since we’re more likely to have a higher village to elim ratio near the start of the game, I now agree that we should make everyone flush with cash asap. Bring on the storms! I'm curious how the mechanics of this plan work. Would you be willing to move your vote to Ashbringer? Specifically Ashbringer. Generally, how do we feel about Highprinces claiming? It could lead to greater accountability. It would also let us use scans and process of elimination to figure out who the people with named roles are. Trouble is, the elims could do that too. I'm thinking we should go all or nothing on this front, because we'd be at a disadvantage if the elims abuse knowledge of who the highprinces are to kill them off and gain a majority among the group.
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It's hard for me to imagine that anyone's brain could really hold any more information, Filico thought. He turned to see the rest of the group jogging to catch up. He sat down next to them, returning their hatred with a smile. Philosophy is a difficult profession, and certainly not for the weak minded, but Filico did his best to encourage them to be open-minded. Huzzah, it’s game time! In C1, barring any solid leads, I’m going to give preference to exing people who entered the game to bulk up the numbers. I’d feel bad randomly killing someone who has been raring to play from the get-go. Illwei fits the bill, and is devious enough to have devised a way to NK an NPC... @Matrim's Dice if a highprince dies, will the rollover post say 'Highprince Number 3 in the doc was killed last night!' or will it just say 'a Highprince was killed!'? I'll state the obvious that buying contracts of peace is a good idea. I think one highstorm would be enough to get a few people to five spheres, and then we should avoid making people much richer if we don't need to. Spying might also be a legitimate use of funds? Past that point, everything the highprinces trigger will be better for the elims than the village, in my opinion. Democracy is a way to get half-priced knives into the hands of elims, anarchy and political vengeance make using the exe harder, and financial crisis blocks the purchase of peace treaties. I'm not looking forward to whatever result is voted on there. I understand that the village can use some of the pricier items too, but still. Kills scary. I agree with Gears' distro guess, but I have a feeling that the elims will have a fair number of highprinces. Maybe a third of the group. EDIT: Also, I definitely forgot that you can't repeat an event until all the events have already happened, so thanks for reminding me Gears. - Striker I totally knew that Recommended order for events: Highstorm, Vengeance, Highstorm, Democracy, Crisis, Anarchy. Crisis should come before Highstorm or after Democracy. Vengeance should be used early, when mass murder is distinctly good instead of just tolerable. -Gears this smart, minus the highstorm doubling
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I think a better strategy would be to ask every player to highlight/bold/coloured text their best point from the cycle so that people skimming can easily separate important posts from banter. If you are a heavy poster, you can highlight multiple quality points. Personally, I don't think I'd use it, because I don't feel that I can properly analyze people based on only a snapshot of their thoughts, but it could help people who struggle to stay engaged.
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Signing up as Filico, no relation.
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Glad I'm not the only one who does that. I agree with Ashbringer that info-kills are better than shots in the dark. I do not like being the only informative kill in town, so I support keeping the thread active and widening our pool of suspects by asking as many people as possible to state their opinions and contribute their ideas. There’s two elim mistborn that the eliminators will be anxious to defend from execution; our path to victory lies in making the eliminators nervous or over-eager to mis-exe a villager. So kudos to everyone who is contributing. Keep it up. I’d been trying to stay optimistic, but realistically, the elims aren’t going to miss an NK. It would take all three of them picking each other for that to happen, which is unlikely. So I’m going to say something I’d been holding back on. My assumption going in was that the elims would pick the most villager people to exe. They would signal to each other who to target not by voting for them, which indicates they wish to remove them via execution, but simply by village reading them. If they put out the idea that an individual is villagey, that person becomes a prime target. So I was surprised when people suggested votes were signals. (Note: our way of countering this is of course to lurcher protect our most villagey people. Forcing low info elim kills is better than only having inactives left at the end of the game.) In theory, we should be getting big wagons because we have a large elim team. Alas, when you pressure people to vote, sometimes they engage in groupthink. I'd like to discuss more elim candidates but I've hit a wall. This game is hard. Something’s pinging me about Mat defending Gears pre-emptively, and generally defending a lot of people while generally having a small suspicion pool. @Flyingbooks, did you ask TJ about the use of secret text in this game? Striker, just to confirm, you’re not Vin, right? If you are, you’re contributing to my exe, which given that I’m a villager, is bad form. Just putting that out there in case you change your story next round. Also, I thought of a great way to get Striker NKed alongside me by posting something near rollover about me being an elim and asking for them to be killed, but frankly, I don't want to be responsible for their early death if it turns out I'm really on their team. It'd make for an awkward dead doc.
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I think what’s throwing me off about Striker is that everyone keeps saying that they die early, which I sympathize with, but the more it’s repeated, the more it sounds like an appeal to our emotions from an elim. To clarify what TUO meant, in my debut game, QF49: Chaos in Newcago, I was an eliminator. I got by basically by talking more than people expect a rookie to, while getting some solid cover in my teammates’ reads. Going into this game, my assumption was that the elims would target the most villagery people because if they make the correct reads, they will avoid exing fellow elims. As a thug, I wanted to absorb one of those, so I adopted a vote-changing, loud-talking strategy designed to make them uncomfortable. I still wanted to survive though, so one thing I thought about was if I act like I did in QF49, I might actually get over-looked for a few rounds as the elims meta-analyze their way out of voting for me. TUO wasn’t in that game, but they could have easily have read the thread at some point. If you look at the QF, one of my elim tells is bad math, so I’m wary of trying to tackle a probability problem right now. But let’s try it anyway, so people can take a stab at correcting my inevitable mistakes. [Future Archer here: Striker posted some math, the take-away from which is ‘if one of us is an elim, that decreases the other's probability’ of being an elim’.] If either of us had been lurcher protected, I think we would have said so and expressed confusion about it, because that’s less suspicious than being possibly mistborn. So let’s assume Striker and I are either Thugs or Mistborn. (I’m going to solve this as if I don’t know my own role.) Using my distribution prediction from C1, I believe this role madness game has three mistborn and three protectors. I also think that the three-person elim teams have one protection role each, likely one has a lurcher and the other has a thug, just for variety. That leaves the village with only one Thug, but we have a 12:3:3 majority. The game has two Thugs in it total. (Note that these are all guesses.) So we have V-Thug, V-Mistborn, E-Thug, E1-Mistborn, and E2-Mistborn. When the roles are randomly distributed, each player has a 1/18 chance of being a specific one of those roles, and a 5/18 chance of being any one of those roles. Now that I write it out, knowing that I’m a village thug, either Striker is confirmed evil or Vin, or I’ve wrongly guessed the distribution. So let’s back up and assume the village has two thugs. That just means one less vote manip or something. Also, if I’m discounting lurcher protection, that means us being possibly Vin doesn’t make sense either, as we’ve both denied it. That makes V1-Thug, V2-Thug, E-Thug, E1-Mistborn, E2-Mistborn. With Vin removed (and Stink, come to think of it), it’s 5/16 that one of us is among that set, 2/16 that we’re village, and 3/16 that we’re evil. So I think that if one of us were randomly selected from the pool, it is more likely that one of us would be an elim than not. But wait! The elims can’t kill their own people. So because they’re selecting, we need to remove their own players from the pool. Let’s say Elim Team One has a thug and mistborn, while ET2 has only a mistborn. ET1 makes a random selection from the eligible pool, which is V1-Thug, V2-Thug, and E2-Mistborn. They had a 2/3 chance of picking a passively protected non-Vin villager. ET2 had 2/4 odds. But! The pools overlapped. The only way I can think to calculate that is by pretending they took turns. ET1 makes a selection. They have 2/3 of hitting a villager. If they do, ET2 has a pool of one villager and two elims. So they are more likely to hit an elim. Going just by that, knowing I am a villager, I think Striker is more likely to be an elim than not. But here’s where it falls apart. They didn’t pick from a tiny pool of people, they both independently picked from a large pool of people. I am unconfident enough in my ability to do math not to vote Striker on the basis of this without first having someone better versed in STEM check my calculations. An unlikely event has occurred. There’s famous court cases of mothers whose children have died. The prosecution argues that one child dying could be a coincidence, but a second dying is so unlikely that it must be murder. The defence to that attack is that an unlikely event has already occurred: two children have died. Weighing which method is more likely is not the appropriate way to determine guilt. So that’s something to keep in mind. I don’t know what the elims will do tonight. If they like my math, maybe they’ll hit me and Striker in hopes of getting a mistborn. I’m afraid they’ll pick three other people instead and we’ll be back to spending a cycle wondering if we should exe Striker or I. But since the elims might shoot other elims, I’m okay taking the chance that they won’t hit us. We’re not at exlo yet, so if we decide to go all in on exing me and Striker and we’re both villagers, I think we’d have enough time to recover afterwards. It’s not ideal, but it’s better than being out of ideas at exlo and exing me because I’m a question mark. I want to make the elims work harder to get their mis-exes. If we were under more pressure, I think I'd more heavily encourage a Striker kill, but given the dynamics of the game, I think Quinn might be right. They know we're not on their team, so better to NK us than to risk not killing anyone at all.
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Liranil Alright, I’m back on pc, but I’ll go to bed immediately after this. An unlikely event has occurred! Time to read up on Prosecutor's fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor's_fallacy) and the debunked Meadow's law. I didn’t hop onto today because I knew I had an extra life, so I didn’t need to be on to cast a tie-breaker vote. I did not expect it to be used up by an NK, although I suppose I should be flattered? At least one person views me as a threat (or wrong enough that the village would be misled when I flipped). That was the plan. Meta-watchers will note I made myself a bigger target than I usually do last cycle because I knew it was better I took a hit than anyone else. The only reason I can think of why a lurcher would protect Striker is if they were their mistborn or if they were dating IRL. :eyes: This could be an indication we have a higher than average amount of protection flying around, but given how quick Striker was to claim they had ‘an extra life’, I’m willing to believe they’re a Thug or Mistborn. Like bip said, he could very easily be Vin, and I want to see what he does once he knows what's happened. -Striker Here they soft-claim non-mistborn. Bold of them not to leave their options open. You know, at the start of this post, I was thinking of offering myself up as the kill today, then Striker the next. That way this coincidence would be explained before exlo. I’m torn, because if we’ve caught a mistborn, that’s awesome. If we haven’t, we’re going to waste two days of kills, assuming the elims don’t help us out. The one thing I don’t want to do is leave this at a tight vote that can be easily manipulated. I prefer predictable results. I agree with Matrim that this is wrong; in fact, I'm pretty sure the fact that they tried to kill you points to the idea that the elims that voted for you weren't as active after the train on you started. -Liranil Going purely by memory, I collected a few votes at the end of the first IRL day, around when I voted Quinn. After that, it swung to Stink, then back to me. My read remains that the elims are active and had a village read on me, perhaps because several people like Mat said they had a village read on me. (Side note: would someone bored like to go through the thread to find any signals that directed the kills? Stuff like people village reading me of Striker, or voting on us etc.) Or, I hit a vein when I voted Striker, who is a mistborn. Had I not had an elim read on Striker going in, I think I would have been happy to let their protection slide. I think the thread is leaning towards exing me first, so when I flip Thug, is the plan to exe Striker, thinking that the odds of him being e-mistborn or e-thug are greater than him being v-thug? I’m not sure the logic there quite checks out, but hey, I’ll be dead. I make a point to not vote on the first cycle. I'd be frustrated if I got voted off on the first cycle for no reason, so yeah. Also, sorry for not posting earlier. I was a bit busy. -Randby Noble sentiment, but if no one pointed any fingers, we wouldn’t get anywhere. Liranil gets to be my first village read / Otherwise Liranil is in my trusts -Illwei I’m unsure why Liranil would be trusted. They had a very conservative C1 that boiled down to them being willing to test others’ theories. Elims need to get mis-exes somehow this game, might as well eb through sheeping. She said she'd be fine with voting anyone except her- elims know their Mistborn and thus aren't fine with exeing them. -Matrim Is it because of this? Because if their mistborn wasn’t up for exe, or they are an elim mistborn, as far as they know, their vote wouldn’t matter. Stink and I are villagers, so elim!Liranil wouldn’t care if her vote pushed one of us into the fire. Otherwise, her vote wouldn’t likely result in an exe. Elims can feign nonchalance. If someone said ‘oh you should vote XXX then’ and they really didn’t want to, they could easily just say, ‘no, I don’t trust you!’. I have an elim read on Liranil right now, which is saying something because I know this game has a higher than usual number of elims, but I have more village reads than usual… and very few elim ones. Probably because the elims are less coordinated Archer's response to my STINK vote did sound forced (though I misinterpreted that originally as being an attempt to protect a teammate) -Quinn Just want to highlight that Stink was not my elim teammate. I suspect I’ll need to repeat that several times this round. Archer was an exe candidate for much of the cycle, so I'm ruling out Lurcher for him entirely--nobody tries to NK someone who might die anyway -Quinn Agreed. I'm... pretty sure Pizza just isn't sure what's going on lol -Quinn They remind me of Breaker. Self-voting is generally a bad strategy. If you’re a villager, you should want to live, unless your flip produces some information. Also, I’m trying really hard not to skim over every time Illwei and Quinn quote each other, but it’s late and that’s getting hard so sorry to both of you. It got eaten twice, short story short: I don't like how he's attempting to control the thread and how similar it is to the QF where he was elim -TUO I’m actually okay with you making this observation, because it’s true. It’s intentional. The goal was to emulate my behaviour from then enough that people would read me as an elim for being too aggressively villager, which is something I can’t be exed for. It seemed like a win-win in my head when I thought about it. At worst, people would miss it and I’d end up taking a hit, as is my job as the thug. That said, I'd rather not be known as a 'thread-controller'. I recognize that that's probably not exactly what you meant as short post equals less nuance, but I don't feel like I'm that domineering. So any suggestions for how I can improve are welcomed.
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^^^ I'm surprised I was attacked. I'd have thought because I was a potential exe candidate, they'd have gone for someone else so if the votes shifted at last minute, they wouldn't have wasted their NK. Also, as a person of interest, I might have been MLed. I guess I defended STINK, so that looks good, but they wouldn't have known his flip. Anyway, the elims were definitely on near rollover, if anyone was watching then (unlike me, who is out right now). I jumped on to see what was up, but am busy and won't be around until tomorrow. Based on my one minute skim, I don't think Striker has claimed yet, which he's probably doing intentionally to see if I'll claim Vin. I can think of Elim and village reasons he'd do that. I'll make it easy and just reveal that I am a thug. Surprise. I'm glad you didn't exe me. Sus on everyone who made the stink exe happen, it made little sense to me. Also, it'd be a fallacy, but since I can't be on the Elim team that tried to kill me, am I not now 50% less likely to be an Elim? Same with Striker. Is that how math works. Please don't kill me, I won't survive a second attack
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Striker. I propose we put votes/retractions at the start of posts, to help the GM out. Welcome to the madness, Whysper. I’ve been trying to think of how elim!me would signal to my mistborn that I’m on their team. Voting for them is not a strategy I would consider. It seems like a good way to get read as a threat, not an ally. I realize I’ve been connected to Stink, and this probably won’t help my case, but I see little reason to sus them. They haven’t said anything objectionable, and the alleged signalling that’s occurring is so blatant that it can’t be real. My pocketing comment looks bad, but I’d like to believe elim!me would have joined a CW rather than take a shot at Quinn the way I did. On that front, I’d say if the Stink thing bugs you, vote who you think is their teammate, not Stink themselves. It’s Quinn and I who have been sus, not Stink. Taniel has an interesting playstyle. High effort, low originality; their biggest posts have been rehashing established content. That said, I think they’ve found their groove now, and they have more confidence joking about being an elim than I think a real elim would. Also, putting it out there, I’m reading Quinn as village. My preferred exes are Striker, Gears, and Flyingbooks, in that order. Striker seemed a little too eager to shed Illwei’s poke while being casual about it, and I didn’t really agree with much they said in the rest of that post either. It’s all defendable, but in context, it felt off, so that’s where my vote is going. Gut read, wooo. Sorry, gotta go, otherwise I'd read the recent posts more closely.
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Just as a general note, overnight I rethought the distributions. I'm more willing to believe in four person elim teams now, because I always underestimate the power of scanners. Having 5:5:8 still seems high to me though, as the elims would outnumber the village. Yeah, if anyone claims Thug unprompted, it's an odd decision. It is either a bluff, trying to stop us from wasting an exe, elim-elim signaling, or an elim trying to save themselves. My problem with fake claims is they are usually about self-preservation. This is actually a good game for self-pres, because of the three team and limited information dynamics present opportunities for elim friendly fire, but I still feel that disinformation hurts the village more than the elims. Say two people claim to be Thugs. The real Thugs in the game are going to say that's odd, having four Thugs in the game doesn't seem likely. Say there's two of those guys. They come forward and now we've got four Thugs. If we believe them, that affects exlo calculations, may disguise the fact that there's vanillagers, and we may think the elims have more power roles than they do to compensate for the abnormal distribution, leading to meta mis-exes. And if a villager is mis-exed over the whole affair, it looks bad on whoever lied to cause it. It could be they thought they had a more important role, or it could be they were an elim sowing chaos. To clarify, everyone is welcome to use their own playstyles and engage how they like. My goal isn't to intimidate people, only to be transparent about how I will react and make people aware of the risks of what they are doing. See below about an exception; Vin should claim if a mistborn is outed. I can't help but feel that @ ing Illwei is an attempt to get the poke moved off. That's a similar response to what I'd give if I were an elim. Me: *votes someone for agreeing with me too much* Mat: *immediately finds something to disagree with me about* If you scan a Mistborn, you risk outing your own role as well as possibly revealing who Vin is. But in context, the rewards can outweigh the risks. It's going to take a while to kill any Mistborn. They have pewter, atium, and possibly lurcher and coinshot protection and exe-derailing vote manipulation from teammates. MR games don't take that long, especially ones where only villagers dies in the first few rounds. Having one beefy villager at the end of the game is still too few to win; we need bodies to keep the exe under village control. Say someone scans a mistborn and announces it to the thread. They will claim to be Vin. At that point, the real Vin can come forward to dispute it, or no one will challenge and we will know they are telling the truth. If they appear to be an elim, we will need to spend two exes taking them down, which is a lot in a 7 or 8 cycle-long game, especially near the end. If they turn out to be Vin, at least we know the identity of an elim. The other elim team might even take them out for us while this is happening. If their claim is undisputed, the real Vin is confirmed good, so we'll need to protect them. I believe they can survive two rounds of elim attacks before falling in the third. IKYK, pewter, atium, and teammates are enough to keep them safe. We're probably in the late stages of the game, or even exlo, at that point, so the future potential of the mistborn is going to have dwindled. What you don't want to do is sit on some information and then die with it from one of the three kills going around each cycle. So you'll need to use your best judgement about what to say when, scanners. My advice is to announce any mistborn you find, but it's up to you. Good luck. You have decent instincts, Quinn, because it was slightly forced. I don't support exing you, so it was an information vote. At the back of my mind, I'm aware that elim!Quinn is very self-reflexive and wouldn't open themselves up to criticism like you did with an odd play. Your vote felt off. Normally you attach an explanation to your votes. I didn't see the point of @ ing Stink, because they are notoriously concise. You weren't going to get an emotional, defensive reply out of them. So what was the point of the poke? My assumption was that you had a lead but were busy and planned to come back later to fully explain. However, I'm trying a new thing where if I see something off (like Gears making a long post but not self-censoring bits that could be helpful to the elims), I call it out and attach a vote to add emphasis. It has the added benefit of making me less predictable. Basically, I'm copying Illwei's style a bit. I also find it a bit odd that you agreed with me a lot, so I mentioned it. The goal being to see if you'd defend yourself about that or cut to the heart of the matter. I'm reasonably content with your response. everyone always says heyo it's stinko but no one ever says how is stinko smh
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I hear ya, Mat. Anyway, Flyingbooks followed the thread around when it was posted. Shortly after, TJ made a clarification that no secret text is allowed. When I GMed the QF, Flyingbooks asked about using white text, so I know it's something they think about. Elims have more reason than villagers to want to secretly communicate. Unfortunately, they said they'd be inactive the first cycle due to schoolwork, so I can't follow-up on my suspicions. Quinn agreed with me a lot in their posts so far, so I worry they're trying to pocket me. Quinn
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I agree it will be harder to read the kills as there is a lot of randomness and lack of communication going on. I feel like asking people not to lie is a legitimate request to make. If someone role-claims then a scanner reveals they have a different role, are we supposed to just ignore it? In the unlikely event that we get a break like that, I intend to take advantage of it. I'm saying that now as fair warning to any villagers who might be considering a gambit. 1. My reading of the rules was that the wording was designed to maintain balance as the game scaled. So if there were only a dozen players, the elim team would know every member of their group. If we had 25 players and therefore bigger elim teams, the uncertainty would enter into it. A small, coordinated elim team in a small game has less of an advantage than a large coordinated elim team in a large game, because in bigger games, the proportionate number of non-voters increases. Two people can't hammer a six person game because everyone votes, but five people can hammer a 20 person game because usually only half the players vote in those. 2. I appreciate your appreciation of my analysis. Having highlighted the risks of TMI, I'll remove my vote. Gears (sorry, TJ. I'm going to do this a lot this game.) My analysis is indeed NAI, save the responses to quotes. 3. I'm fairly sure Illwei was joking about their plan for the elims. Joking is part of village!Illwei's meta... I'll note that down I believe the elims can't kill those on their own team, but they are free to take out the other team. Correction to my thought from earlier that we can see if there's multiples of roles by counting the number of vote manips we get C2: Gears said we aren't told the counts, so that will be hard to do. I'm not sure how I feel about vanillas claiming. *hides atium stash* (*for legal reasons, that isn't a claim either) Is this your first mafia game? 1. They also can't set up MLs as easily. 2. They also can't coordinate their voting or role use to defend each other, so it is less subtle. 3. Agreed. Comment after someone does what you think an elim would do, not before to give them ideas. I was ninja'd a lot writing this. Oop. Now if you'll excuse me, I have an LG aftermath to read...
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“Wasing the buying of washing from Walter?” “No, no, buying the washing was Walter,” said a helpful shirt salesman, as Archer remembered he can use dialogue tags in this game. “Right,” replied Dim, scribbling notes on his pad. “Wasing washing from Walter.” “Wasing right ‘til you write washing and wasnot.” Archer was already regretting his RP decisions. *** Rules Analysis (I wrote this prior to game start, so I’ll respond to others’ below) The roles can be categorized as: -Vote manip: Rioter, Soother -Protection: Lurcher (can’t stop exes), Thug, Mistborn* -Scanner: Tineye, Seeker, Terris -Action manip: Coinshot, Smoker TJ’s last game was role madness, so my working assumption is that this one is as well. Alternatively, we have one player of each role and the rest (6 people) are vanillas. My guess for the former distribution is that we have three mistborn, four vote manipulators, three protectors (excluding mistborn), four scanners, and four action manipulators. It’s going to take a while to figure out the exact distribution, as the vote manipulators can’t start working until C2, and even then, a mistborn might get the role too. The kill flips at rollover will likely be more informative. I assume that the eliminator factions will be of equal strength, very likely by having the same number of players on them. For variety, they likely won’t have players with the same roles, however, the roles will be balanced between the two teams. For example, Straff co might have a thug and a Rioter, while the Cett Ops might have a Lurcher and a Soother. A quarter of 18 is 4.5, so a fair regular distribution would be 5. The elims lack a doc and are divided, so I’m thinking it’s teams of 3 or 4, for a total of 6 or 8. Four is not necessarily the worst-case scenario, as if it’s threes, they will have stronger roles, such as protection roles. Let’s say it’s 3:3:12 and a non-role madness game. If every exe kills an elim and every NK kills a villager, it will go 2:3:10 – 2:2:8 – 1:2:6 – 1:1:4 (at this point, elims have only mistborn, and village has a mistborn and a thug. Let’s say the kills all hit protected people) – ½:1:[1/2+1/2+2] – 0:1:2 – 0:1/2:1 – 0:0:0 (but village wins because of OoA.) This is an oversimplification that doesn’t really engage with the potential of roles or potential elim crossfire, but as you can see by how close it is, 3:3:12 is hard enough for the village to win. I feel that eight elims would be too many. Other Notes: Please avoiding speculating about optimal eliminator strategies in ways that may actually benefit the elim teams. Since there is no elim docs, they have to do their planning in the open or not at all. If we avoid comments like “the elims will probably vote for so and so tonight,” they will struggle to coordinate. I will be watching for any subtle signalling that is attempted. Please use your roles, scanners. We will struggle to win without a clutch insight or two. Please do not lie about your role. Disinformation hurts the village more than the elims. It is reasonable to assume that anyone who lies is an elim. 1. This appears to be an elim signaling strategy to his teammates under the guise of his usual analysis. In a limited communication game, this advantages the elims exponentially more than it helps the village. It's not great signaling, as it doesn't say much the elims wouldn't already be thinking, but it's still dangerous. 2. I hadn't caught that, good eye. 3. I also had this question. It affects my exlo scenario listed above, so depending what TJ says, I may need to change that. You thought along similar lines as I, although I completely discounted two person teams as a possibility. Thoughts on potential role distribution among them? (I realize that could also be used to signal, but we have to talk about something.) Yes, vote in thread. For example, I'll cast my vote in red here: Gears (to retract it, put it in green) Hi! This might be our first game together. Same with the pizza guy, whose name I forget. Hi, pizza guy! Edit: Also hi to Biplet!
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Well done, Eluvianii! And everyone else too. Also, I hereby withdraw from the competition, for secret reasons.
