Archer
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Everything posted by Archer
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*checks to see if atium misting is a role* How someone can just RP and not mount a vocal self defense is beyond me. Maybe they have an extra life. Striker mentioned Bloodmaker or something could do that? If they do, that is at least relevant to Biplet's alignment, so that's better than the absolute nothing we'd get from exing TUO otherwise. Oh. Oh. KANDRA. Edit: nevermind, he claimed already, didn't he. Darn Anyway, I'm keeping my vote where it is because Mat: -hasn't seened worried about NKs, despite his wealth and high activity. He could have bought a Vest, for example -robbed Devo, who is one of the few non trusted villagers and non elim teammates left with any cash. -stole from me, his village trust -made that comment I think is covering for submitting an NK. The one about trying to rob me twice and being unable to do so so he did nothing that night
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Guess we have to have this discussion. Did they bus, or have we just been extremely unlucky? Either it's Kingsway and Sommer, or Szeth is in the mix. Hopefully there's only two of them left, and it's 4:2, which may lead to 3:2, followed by 2:2, which is still 50/50 odds, assuming full participation and the roles not doing anything. Or its 3:3 and we need to catch them today. Luckily, if it is, all the people I named are evil, so if we consolidate the vote, we'll be fine. Ignore the strikethrough. I'll start by hoping the elims are somewhat active with a vote on Kingsway
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I'll hop on the windrunner supreme train
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I do glance at the roles when people flip, but I didn't know what the Bodyguard one was called until I looked it up yesterday. I've been watching for the ones I recognize and assuming the others don't really matter until someone flags them. It's not a good way to play, fair criticism. I could have sworn I saw people asking fire bodyguard protection as late as last cycle, but in light of TJ's flip, we probably don't have a Lurcher in the game anymore. So there goes that plan. I could probably make a list of what roles are left, but I'm not sure if that's a helpful as I thought. Especially with some people having only half claimed. So, new line of inquiry. Are people really that inclined towards TUO? I know they gave us essentially nothing, and this will be a bad look if they do flip elim, but they seem more like a cremshoot to me. And Dannex hasn't posted in a while either. Those last three are nulled for inactivity, but two of the top susses could just as easily be too. And the other is Araris 'Shot an Eliminator' Valerian. I like the Mat sus though. :P.
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So you're telling me that on Day One, when an Elim was up for exe, six people voted and only one of then was evil? Someone else pick who to exe, I'm obviously missing something.
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I know. But you've really stuck with your village read of me, while others haven't. My playstyle has changed in this game, because of work and hockey, but I'm surprised you haven't seized on it yet thinking it's an evil strategy. Kandra is an alignment I don't believe is an evil alignment. I've seen no reason to believe they're a threat in this game, so so long as I know the individual isn't an elim, they're fine by me. I'm assuming the role and alignment are the same. And the person is just a kandra, not anything else. They probably have an ability, but it's probably not allomantic or feruchemical based. Lurcher is the protection one, right? Did I miss a claim? Because I'd guessed they was one Lurcher and they were village. The elims don't need to assume much, they just have to look at the list and cross off the ones they have among them. I'm thinking most roles exist in the game, probably only once, except in the case of the Thief. I think we have a pool of three people with at least one elim in it. I'm slightly less confident but still believe the Thieves have one elim among them. If I'm off about Biplet, that tells us less than if I'm off about Mat, which definitely leads to Devo. I wish the tie had flipped the other way, but in fairness, I was more up in the air about Mat last Day. For the record, I'm down to roleclaim if it will help significantly narrow the pool of suspects, either by eliminating the lurcher and kandra from the suspect list, or getting a decent idea of who the roleblocker is.
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Ah ha, your stab is wasted for I started preparing this post before you posted it! And I'm too lazy to bother changing it! that's your elim tell, Mat :P. * Crazy, wild theory I don’t for a minute believe! Araris is an elim-aligned kandra who killed Lotus for village cred. Lotus, knowing they would be slain, intentionally stayed tight lipped and only RPed and joked about. More realistically, elim aligned kandra Araris wouldn’t have killed his teammate. So I trust them entirely. Books did that thing where they tried to out Araris, which is an ill conceived elim plan (they could just kill the coinshot instead), so I trust them. Drake bought a vest, which, being the only guy who really had a chance of getting the lerasium spike, doesn’t make much sense for a trusted elim to do. Plus they’ve been kinda helpful this game. So they’re village to me. I was going to give them a hard time for not having died yet, but I’ll put that criticism off now because it’s paranoid tinfoil. Drake, do you know anything about people who haven’t claimed their roles yet? Just answer yes or no please, it may be helpful if we decide to look into roleclaiming. With what the elims know of their teammates, assuming a few of them haven’t claimed yet, they know more than we do right now, and can make educated guesses about who our lurcher is. Sidenote: lurcher, if you claim, I’ll treat ya as conf town. But anyway, roleclaiming to figure out who the roleblocker is by process of elimination could be helpful. And maybe the kandra, who lacks powers? Thoughts, people who have yet to claim their allomantic abilities? Szeth’s reaction to Flyingbooks’ revelation was to aggressively go after Araris. I don’t think an elim would jump on a train they knew would dissolve easily. Gut village there. Dannex and Ash are MIA, and I don’t remember enough of their early-game play to justify a quick read on them. Nulls. TUO just showed up, but they didn’t say anything substantive, so also null. Those three could be the whole elim team, but I doubt it. That leaves Devo, Mat, and Biplet. Devo and Mat aren’t e/e because they have the same role. Of the two, I’m leaning towards Mat being eviler. This line has been sticking in my mind as possibly being cover for their having done something else/ a touch of elim paranoia. I tried to steal boxings from you N1 and when I was informed I couldn’t opted to not do anything because I didn’t think anyone had items and wanted to avoid getting scanned trying. I hesitate to say there must be an active elim, because after Jondesu, I think all the elim kills have been logical: villager with special information, confirmed villager based on their kill. But there probably is, and they’ll be easier to identify than those hiding among the nulls. Mat’s flip tells us about Devo. I think mat and Bip are e/e, but if Mat flips village, I’ll be certain Bip is evil, by process of elimination. Miscellaneous theories: -Thieves can steal items *cough Vests*, so the elims got one to balance that item out after last game’s trouble with those -Besides having targeted Araris being AI, the elims having a roleblocker makes sense because we had the hazekiller who could do that. But we both have access to steel traps so it’s not that necessary.
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Interesting. That unfortunately doesn't tell us much. Thug could be from either alignment. Biplet meant to self pres, and their role would have given the elims the luxery of taking a hands off approach this round. Of the nine people who voted, most are on my trust list, so either it was v/v, e/e, or they had flexibility. Yay, lack of progress! Hey, someone bought a Vest. Anyone want to claim they? Not sure why you would, but the IKYK opportunity exists if you'd like to take it. There's not many people who had the funds for that last Night. Also, Devo is a thief??? who the bagel is the kandra then? The pool should be down to four or so by now, since we've had some claims. Ash, TUO, Szeth and Dannex, I think are the remaining options. I'm still looking to make a deal with them. If you're a neutral and your wincon isn't just to outlive everyone, just knowing who you are would be a massive help late in the game. Saves us mixing or Araris killing the wrong person. I'd rather not be at exlo and get two kandra claims. Food for thought. Speaking of food... *** "Oh Great Panini," the people cheered, "sing us a song." "This is irrelevant to the plot!" the rich patron rebuffed them. "But despite being ostensibly wealthy, my narrator needs boxings, so here goes!" "Huzzah!" the people cheered. The Great Panini cleared his throat and began to sing. Badly. "Today there was a massive brawl, I skimmed the writeup, didn't read it all. From what I see, Shara survived, That's nice, their roleplay's less contrived. I saw they softed being tough, It matches their claim of being buff." He paused, running out of things to sing about. "Uhhhh, I like cheese, oh yes I do. Like a summer's breeze or morning dew. I like grapes too, those are cool. Good for a brew, or snack 'side a pool. Walnuts also are quite nice. The favoured meal of field mice. Turns out singing takes longer to write, Than simple prose, like narrating fights." He stopped, and suddenly punched the woman beside him. She gasped in surprise, stumbling backwards into the buffet. "ARE YA EVILLL?" Panini shouted. "WHAT HE SAID," his ventriloquist dummy added, tiny wooden arms swinging wildly. The woman, regaining her composure, retaliated with a series of karate kicks! Or maybe judo! I don't know fighting! "Stop this madness!" the constable shouted, appearing out of nowhere. "Why, is it disturbing the peace?" "No," he said, snacking on a cheesey grape from the buffet table. "You've just reached 200 words, so you can stop this madness."
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So anyway who wants to hear my theory that Devo is in fact a Gasper? I don't think they've had a 200 word post in a while. Except that messes with my theory that they're a kandra. How we all feeling about kandra claims? We're closish to exlo, so if it came down to wasting an exe on a kandra vs possibly hitting an elim, I think we have to go for the evil lads. Thoughts? Kandra, any thoughts on that Bribe offer from before? I can throw in a Bulletproof Vest I totally have, unless dying is part of your win con. You do you
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I was also dead wrong twice, so don't rely on my instincts too much. :P. Dannex, who is your top sus? Also, I have a fan theory that the Forger role is a PM spying one we're making incredibly moot by not using them. :D. Although realistically it's probably more like they can give themselves a vote manipulation ability once in the game or something. If any villagers do have the Forger role, I see no reason not to mention it so we can get an idea of what it does.
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I'm still miffed the only reason you wanted to track boxings with me was so you could rob us all. :/ But that's a valid point. Besides Ary, I don't know if anyone really susses Drake right now. Mat I'm thinking Devo is the kandra. Same reasons I thought Mist was, they've generally been playing lowkey. Plus their contribution this cycle was to say please don't attack the kandra. Before that they made a post speculating about who the kandra could be. Has anyone tried bribing them yet? Hey kandra, village thief Mat will give you a lerasium spike if you support our side. I am not dialed into this game as much as I should be and it's showing. Gah. TUO's probably a dead end, based on past experience. Biplet
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From the rules: I misremembered. Looks like you may be right. I'll buy that multiple elims have the role, which explains why it needed an update. I won't believe, however, that Liranil was bussing. It was early and unnecessary. Liranil and I voted for Ash C2, so we’re village. Illwei and Szeth ended C1 with votes on Ash, so they’re village. With those assumptions in mind, here’s a colour map of the voting C1. (@ you two, you're on the same side. You both voted for Ashbringer at key moments. Stawp fightinggg) This is the ideal situation for the elims. I think they held their votes in reserve in case someone turned on them, but at this point, Ash just wanted to make a safe vote and get outta there. The timing of Dannex’s vote is scummy; it fits Ash’s strategy of late voting. Ash was in danger, so if his teammates were awake, I suspect he would have asked for their help. But Dannex voted for me, which made a one-person wagon, too small to knock off the two voters of Ash. It could be he planned to jump there too, and Striker got there first? Or maybe they were more clever than I’m giving them credit for. Striker had previously said, “So, just wanna say that I think my vote on Archer is still great, I think confirming the existence of a neutral by killing them is a great idea, solid plan.” It’s possible they intentionally chose me in an attempt to lure Striker away from Ash. If so, well done. That’s good situational awareness. If it failed, I suppose Ash jumping on another train was always an option too, although they left it down to the wire. Alright, I’ve talked myself into voting Dannex. As supporting evidence, here’s the C2 VC: See who is missing? Dannex. They were on about 8 hours before rollover and not again, meaning it’s possible the reason Ash received little support was because they weren’t on to provide it, even if they were ‘active’. Similar logic could lead you to TWS, Kingsway, and Summer as well. It’s worth mentioning TWS (The Winter Soldier, obviously) got some protection from Ash during C2; he advocated against CCing them. I really do suspect that TWS came on, skimmed the thread and voted, then read the elim doc and quickly changed from voting for their teammate because oops. Gonna emphasize this vote so Experience doesn't miss it. DANNEX
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It's a process of elimination vote. Using my (probably unscientific) theory that only one elim would PM me because the others could just ask them in the doc what I said. Dannex, Summer PMed me. You, Illwei, and I are clear for voting Ash. Szeth too, to a lower extent. Kingsway, Azmine, and Windrunner are basically nulls. Windrunner had that weird vote Ash, then don't thing, but they chose to start a new wagon over possibly making a tie to give Ash a shot at survival, which is good. So I wouldn't mind pressuring Azmine and Kingsway. I picked Azmine because Kingsway doesn't fit that inactive elim profile guess. I'm not certain about the Azmine shot, and am quite okay with going elsewhere, but that's where I'm at right now
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Oh, in that case I totally have a Bulletproof Vest and would be a poor NK choice I'm struggling with the disconnect between you saying you think I'm villagey and you taking actions that hurt my ability to get items. If you had said you were more neutral/evil on me, that I could understand. But I thought I'd be left alone by a village thief because potentially stealing from an elim helps the team more than choosing to probably hinder a villager does Edit to your edit: my activity has really dropped off recently so I feel like I'm not getting boxings. Maybe I'm doing/did okay, comparatively. Idk. @Matrim's Dice
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You could be on to something with necromancy. Unless the role offers some delayed second life, the only powers I can think of that would require adjustment after the bearer is dead are: -dead doc to elim doc communication -a delayed effect, like they select someone to gift an ability to at a set time -A transferable ability that someone else now has -something super powerful that the elims needed to win; perhaps the game became horribly unbalanced when Ash died and... I don't know how changing the role would have helped there, unless it was to allow communication or triggering of the ability from the grave I think the bloodsealer thing was just a red herring. Why would he reveal what we never would have guessed? I agree that Ash got less help than I'd have expected from a big, active team. That's partially why I'm keeping my eye on Danex. But there's probably at least one fairly inactive elim that didn't help out, hence my vote on Azmine right now. If be okay tying them up with a few other people. I've got better village reads than elim ones, but we can just chip away at the player list in order of least to most trusted and still probably win with the information we have now. I approve
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No, I'm not a thief and yes that's why I asked about it. Drake's feeling guilty for being smart but so much of this reads as suspicious to me (quote snipped). I see no reason why v!Mat would steal from me, given their village read of me. It's actively hurting who he still says he thinks is a teammate. Also, he just revealed I have no items. :/ Even if he's just going for the most boxings, I shouldn't be the top target. Araris has more, for example. I've been on both exe wagons, but I got like two boxings from each of those. (Am I complaining because I'm broke? Yup :P) My v!thief assumption was based on there being only one thief. I can definitely see there being one of each alignment. I hesitate to exe based on role alone, but use of a role is certainly fair game. And I can conveniently recoup my losses by voting for a Thief. Matrim Flyingbooks and Araris are likely village, based on how they've used their roles. Illwei killed a villager, so that's meh, and I can see Ventyl wanting to use their power before leaving. But strategically, the elims would have wanted to save it. So I'll agree they are villagey. I'm curious who the kandra is, but Araris can take them out if they're so inclined. I'd rather exe elims. I'll see about doing some proper analysis tomorrow (woo, weekend), but I wanted to jump on the Mat stealing from me thing while it was fresh
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I want to know after the game why you picked Lotus. For now, I trust you're watching the exlo math and being smart with your choices. Didn't Illwei claim the Lotus kill when she took over. Probably misremembering. Hey Drake, are you a Thief?
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LET'S GOOOOOO I agree Liranil and I are cleared. I think the elims will be willing to bus in this game, but not like that. Windrunner Supreme I'm not willing to clear because it's quite possible they voted, checked the elim doc, and realized they accidentally voted on a teammate so they switched. Ash just said basically are you a.... bloodsealer? Which in the books was the necromancer type dude who used the protagonist's blood to cast a ward to stop her leaving. The elims having the role changes a lot of my assumptions. It could mean a smaller elim team, for example. And Dannex, while they looked like a neutral, and could have known I was lying based on their teammate telling them, felt too combative in PM's to be evil. I'm soft clearing them and Summer for now, but am willing to come back to Dannex because they voted for Striker. Oh and Illwei and Szeth voted for Ashbringer last round. Illwei made the tie, so they're pretty cleared. Szeth is soft cleared, but could have been distancing as the first vote. So that leaves us with Kingsway, Azmine and Windrunner. This is a copy paste so I can get the red, ignore strikethrough: Azmine
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XD. Hi, Illwei. Care to explain why Ventyl had a similar playstyle to e!Lotus? Sorry, TJ. It appears I have a knack for starting successful exe wagons on villagers. Also, I was robbed yesterday. Perhaps the Thief is evil after all. Unless someone out there would like to argue I'm a good person to steal from? I don't have much money and I'm a villagery villager, according to most reads lists.
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It ended up being a three way tie. I know two of the participants were villagers. I think the elims would be okay with those odds, 66% chance of survival, especially whoever made the kill shot would take some heat. They were really skeptical, moreso than someone just asking for clarification. Seemed like they were confident I was lying from the get go. If e!me draws out the special role, they aren't on my e!team. How do I use that information to my advantage; I can't kill them subtly. I do. Because the elims benefitted from knowing the info I was offering and potentially buttering me up for an alliance. I'm convinced at least one of them would have reached out. Without quoting directly, the gist was hey why not just use your power to turn someone. If they die, thanks. If they turn evil, you'll know they're evil now and can tell us. Then you'll be useless so everyone will ignore you. Wasn't the best plan for n!me, but they suggested it
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I’m a good liar. That is, a liar who is good aligned. That has led me to conclude that Dannex is a neutral, Ashbringer is evil, and Summer has the opposite alignment of Ashbringer. I am not The Special; I am a vanillager. My fake claim was designed to generate some information. I expected a prompt counter-claim from the v!secret role, and was willing to treat them as basically confirmed good if they did. I waited a full cycle to see if they simply hadn’t got on yet, but the best I got was a few people saying they were cautiously skeptical. An e!secret role also had incentive to reveal and get me exed, so I’m leaning towards the role being neutral aligned. (If it is evil, they may have been saving it as an ace to make exlo go poorly for us, but based on who I think has the role, their approach doesn’t align with that plan.) Any counter-claim would have been genuine, because who has the guts to fake-counter-claim? I expected (only) one elim to volunteer in the elim doc to shoot me a PM to get the information about the role I was offering. I suspected they’d be hungry for information and eager to establish a relationship. Striker PMed me. (He’s confirmed village) Ashbringer PMed me, guessed I was a Bloodsealer, and asked a followup question when I told him my spiel. Summer PMed me, asked how the role worked on scum, then told me to use it on someone random and I’d be ignored the rest of the game. And Dannex PMed me. Everything about their toned screamed indignant neutral. They basically said, hold up, you’re claiming to be the Special? Then asked my wincon, asked what the role was called, and were confused when I told them I couldn’t quote that because it’s from my GM PM. When I later did tell them, they asked why I wasn’t just saying all this in-thread. Dannex was more confrontational than an elim fishing for information, and seemed skeptical from the get-go, more-so than I believe they had the right to be. That’s why I think they knew I was lying because they themselves have the role. As for the theoretical elim asking for information, as the more experienced player, Ashbringer seems more likely to volunteer to approach me than Summer, so I’m guessing they’re the evil one. They were also more cordial. Ashbringer There was also a longshot hope an elim would straight up offer an alliance, but that didn’t happen, and that benefit of continuing the charade is outweighed by the potential disastrous consequences of the real Special ousting me at a bad time. For anyone who is interested, the fake role was called Master Forger, and I had the one-time ability to change someone’s alignment (including my own). The process would kill elims. My win-con was survival, or to win with the team I aligned myself with using the stamp. Any questions?
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That's how double negatives work, right. Seems legit
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If anyone wants to know, PM me and I'll talk about the role. It's not what you think it is, although that would have been cool Also, Striker seemed defensive AND voted for me, which is rood. Rollover is at 1am for me I think, so let's sort out the exe earlier than that please. Striker
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Better summary: Illwei and Quinn hacked Araris and Drake's accounts and are doing their usual thing Araris' sus list is fairly close to mine, so I'm village reading them for that. I'll chuck a vote on TJ because out of all the votes last cycle, their's felt the most elimyly timed. TJ
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Columbus, famed detective with a lazy eye for detail, bumbled around the body, licking the decorative flowers in all the vases for Mysterious Reasons. "Excuse me, miss," he asked the body. "Do you know where I could find the bathroom?" That question alone would tell him everything he needed to know, but as he shambled away, trench coat dragging along the floor tiles, he was already planning to talk to ten other people before the episode was finished, just to keep things interesting. I'll agree there's a minimum of three elims. If it gets down to one, they have such reduced odds of winning that four might make sense, just to account for how things could go sideways quickly for them. Also, to borrow a Lego Movie term, I am the Special. I won't say what the role does, or its alignment, but feel free to PM me.
