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Archer

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  1. Archer
    Huh. I was sure the balance was that they were neutral. I guess them being NKable is enough to deter a claim Updated plan: we hedge out bets. Only Zelda requests a Frog, while Link avoids signalling their identity. Either we get double scans throughout the game, or we lose a key player but at least the game isn't over. I'd rather tackle this head on than waffle and eventually decide to trust them anyway. Either it'll be a bad idea now and we'll know sooner rather than later that the item pipeline will be dry, or it'll be a bad idea later when Beedle claims and we all go yeah, they're probably fine. Probably. I suspect we'll all trust them at exlo if it comes to it and we have to play balance of probability, so why not trust them now and make the most of it? Also, Mat mentioned Sheikah isn't actually a name but a generic role, so there's probably multiples of them. Good catch
  2. Archer
    Backstory RP: “Oh kindly sword elf,” the people of Hyrule implored, “please help us. We have many lengths of chain that are impractically short.” “I AM LINKOV!” he replied. “You’re right, we can link the chains together to make them longer! Thanks, Russian Robin Hood!” And so, a hero’s journey began. *** During the week, I tried to think like the GMs and attempted some distribution role analysis. Then four people signed up yesterday and threw both myself and I suspect the GMs off a little. (Hiiiii, new people!) Most of this will still hold true, but I’m still trying to decide how many vanillas we can reasonably have. I initially assumed that there is one of every name role and multiple of the generic ones, as well as vanillas, who are empowered by items. Beedle Biplet, are items distributed after Beedle dies? Does Beedle have neutral alignment? Barring that, the role is certainly village, as an e!Beedle would funnel items solely to their teammates and create a serious power imbalance. V!Beedle should mostly give items to villagers, using reads to better manage the distribution as the game progresses. The elims get items from those they kill, but will be disadvantaged by an insightful Beedle, so I expect they have a strong team to compensate. The elims should kill a Beedle that isn’t granting their item requests, so claiming should be a last resort. Zelda and Link They should both request a Tireless Frog today so Beedle knows who they are. If three people request one, the third is an elim poser. To protect their identities, none of us should roleclaim. I expect any elim in danger of being exed will claim to be a confirmed good role, either to survive or help their team discover valuable information in the event of a counter-claim. We therefore cannot rely on mechanical analysis alone; everyone please do your part to be village read so we can gauge the likelihood of an eleventh hour claim being true without relying on counter-claims. Master Kohga, Mipha, Urbosa, Daruk Kohga’s superkiller role seems designed to prevent a confirmed good role claiming and being protected throughout the entire game. The wincon of only needing to kill one confirmed good (plus parity) also seems designed to circumnavigate the Mipha bodyguard finding a confirmed good and Kohga having already used his kill/being killed potentially making an unwinnable situation for the elims. To balance a v!Mipha, I’d guess the elims either have Daruk (Thug) and/or Urbosa (roleblocker). Daruk would be of more use. Sheikah And of course, being able to see roles would help too. Given we have scanner Zelda already, there’s a good chance they GMs sought balance by giving the evil team Sheikah. Village scanner Zelda and Revali vs evil Sheikah seems balanced. Revali and King Rhoam Bosphoramus Hyrule Being able to see who people target seems fairly weak for either team, so my gut says it’s village. The King’s role is also weak, but it replicates the Mighty Bananas, which v!Beedle hands out, so I’m guessing it’s evil. Knights and Postmen As previously stated, there’s probably multiples of these. The Knights can redirect kills, or scans from Zelda, so they’re a good elim asset. The Postmen can either catch unwary villagers off guard or be a great counter to the elim doc. Their goal should be to get a confirmed good into a PM so they buddy can counter-claim in thread instead of them if it comes to it. So in a twenty-six-person game, we could be looking at: V!Zelda, Link, Beedle, Mipha, Urbosa, Revali, Postman, Postman, Knight, +11 vs E!Kohga, Sheikah, King, Daruk, Knight, +1. With a village alignment scanner, who can create a towncore between their scans and the confirmed good roles late in the game, this seems pretty balanced. Still not sure about the amount of vanilla though. Maybe there's some more postmen/knights thrown in there? Those who have played the video game may have some additional insight into the alignment of roles based on the alignments and personalities of the roles’ namesakes. If there’s someone infamous for being traitorous, that might be a clue. But it’s impersonation flavour, so that might be a dead end.
  3. Archer
    I know nothing about Zelda, but don't plan on doing any research beyond reading the writeups. I'll sign-up as Linkov, who OOC resembles the protagonist of a pirated Russian knock-off of the LoZ game. In-world, he's an elf with a sword who shouts "I'M LINKOV", what more detail could you need Also, I know nothing about Russian. This will go splendidly
  4. Archer
    Except when the elims use them to protect themselves. Such as by exing Randby over Araris in LG76 and exing TUO over Mat in LG77. CC's are logically valid because generally villagers should be active and participating in order to help their team win. The NK will always hit a villager. Lowkey play increases your chance of being mixed, and increases the odds a more engaged villager will be killed instead by the elims. Both are bad outcomes, unless you're supremely confident in your ability to solve the game in the final round AND convince everyone in the village to listen to you. If anyone plans on increasing their activity next game, feel free to advertise it in the sign ups so you don't get exed for the change in playstyle. I'll even give you a shiiiiiiny upvote if you do. This game felt like a one-off, hopefully we'll all regress to the mean next time. I include myself in that. As for ties, they're often done for chaos. Sometimes that catches the elims off guard, but it usually just risks setting the village back a round because the mix everyone was tunneling didn't happen and they have to spend another cycle trying it. I'm okay with them under the same circumstances Ash is, and am now slightly more inclined to call people out for them. Preferably before rollover, because hindsight reasons are moot. Ties for ties' sake are more of an excuse than a reason.
  5. Archer
    Wowza! Good game, all. I'm pretty sure you thinking I was a Thug is the sole reason I survived the game. So thank you! :P. By the way, I was assuming you were the kandra based on Araris' wishy washy ISO of you. Had an elim died that night, making it 3v:2e:1k, I would have advocated for killing the elim first with the exe, which I think would have ended the game. Ash might have been able to Soothe out another hammer, but with Smoking in play, it probably would have led to a village win. Also, from now on you'll never be able to pocket me because if you ever trust me too much again, my hackles are gonna raise I read the writeup at 11pm in a mall parking lot and screamed what the heck?! when I got to the Panini part. It was a wonderfully cold showdown involving a ventriloquist dummy and I loved it. I wish this game had been three months earlier, when I was in school and had time for more RPing. Turns out working most of the day makes it hard to do my usual playstyle. I think saying something, anything, frequently is probably more important than making sure it's super polished, so going forward I'm going to try to lean more concise in the analysis so I have time to also throw in some RP. Some game notes: -Sentry seemed balanced. I never used it, and I probably would have disliked the no PMing at night thing more if I could have PMed, but it was a pretty good power that incentived getting a kill protect and acting as killbait, or thiefbait. And it was nice that the vote cancelling had some use too, counterintuitively -Smoker was also fine, even if I thought it could block redirects originally. Not sure why I thought it worked like that, but once I got going, they were two good low power abilities -I don't think the Blackmarket was used as effectively as it could have been. I'm not sure if people made less money than you expected or what, but it felt like it only was relevant at the end -It'd be cool if the Coinshot kill had a boxing cost to use. Like 10 or so It's all good. There were a few late-game mistakes that could have changed the outcome: -TUO acted elimy enough to attract village votes to their mix (having no opinion looks like an elim who can't come up with reasonable suspicions to pretend to have. Especially when e!Lotus used the same playbook) -Drake was off about Biplet and didn't redirect -Dannex didn't reveal Szeth's alignment immediately, which would have pointed to Biplet as the third elim and consolidated the village vote -Szeth didn't vote to protect themselves -And I misunderstood thale kandra wincon; I thought they needed to survive until the village or elims won, not be the last one standing But that's how it goes sometimes. I think we generally did pretty well. Maybe if Mat had died instead of Bip in that tie, this game would have gone an extra couple of rounds and had a different result. Same with if there'd been PMs or different roles survived. And if Araris had been good instead of a sneaky kandra. :P. That's how the dice roll. By the way, why didn't you consider me being Smoker an option when you tried to guess what it was? You being certain Drake was evil in the dead doc was awesome to read XD. Thanks for a good game, everyone. Young Bard, I'm glad you were on hand to keep lover boy's books in order. It looked like a complex game to run, and you both did well managing it.
  6. Archer
    Dannex, I read our QF PM by mistake a nearly got the wrong message. But I got it now. You and Drake pick who you're gonna target each. Secretly, of course. Drake, I quite like hyphenated words! Tell us why we shouldn't blackmail, besides that it's rood And kandra, it's not too late to tell us not to blackmail you so you can use both kills to NK the elims and win immediately with the village
  7. Archer
    oof. That would have been nice to know. Hey Dannex, I'd like to know if you bought Blackmail. If Szeth or one of the elims did, it changes my calculations. As such, I’m not entirely sure they will submit kills tonight. Depends how lucky they feel. But don’t bank on that. Currently I'm obviously going to blackmail Mat, who definitely correctly surmised that I am a Thug. Actually, I think I'll hit the person whose name is the third-last word before the in our PM, Drake. I know I've been referencing our PM to try to mislead the elims with fake info, but this time I actually mean it. If you can't find it, let me know. For example, in the sentence "Bob and Bill are nice :D" the target I'd be referring to would be Bill. Helpfully, every member of the elim team is either mentioned by name in that PM, or their name appears as part of a word, provided you call them Mat and Ash. so good luck guessing who I'm picking, elim doc :P. The Great Panini, esteemed local patron of the arts, had lost his voice. He'd been gasping too much as people's alignments were revealed. "Time," he rasped hoarsely. "For me to retire. Bagel, create a diversion so we can get out of here." "What do you want me to do? I can't bite someone again, everyone left scares me." "That's too subtle anyway. Look, look carefully. I think I recognize one of those bad guys from-" "Ha! You're right." Bagel began to shout very, very loudly. "HEY EVERYBODY. DID YOU KNOW THAT," Panini coughed, having to clear his voice. "excuse me, GOES TO WEEKLY LIFE DRAWING CLASSES? NONE OF THE MODELS WEAR CLOTHES. GROSSSSSSS."
  8. Archer
    Matrim, as you know I've had it out for you since the beginning of the game. I absolutely intend to blackmail you tonight. Your clever sleuthing caused me to reveal my true and genuine role, so I feel obliged to redirect any kills you submit. I have chosen this path and will stick to it without deviating. I consider you my arch nemesis and would derive great pleasure from your failure. I am underhanded and ruthless and will stoop extraordinarily low to achieve my goals. Hey Striker, how does blackmail stack? If two people redirect the same person, what happens? If one person redirects another redirecting, what happens?
  9. Archer
    Mayyybe Assuming it was an elim kandra, I'd suggest submitting the elim kill order right before rollover, as well as your own. Kill the elims so you have complete control of the exe. Kill Ghost Araris too so you have control of both docs as well. Actually, you need one elim alive still so the game doesn't end. Anyway, then we'll figure out how to help you achieve an Alternative Wincon!™ If it gives us a shot at winning, I'm willing to play on for the two or so more cycles it would take for you to write enough RP (and analysis posts?) to reach the boxings you need to buy that spike. It's shiny investiture, aren't you at least a little tempted? >:) Nah, they very clearly just all developed reasonable suspicions of Szeth's inactivity at the same time/really liked ties!
  10. Archer
    Well that's a pleasant pick me up. Good job, village. And elims. You two did well, for the situation you were in. Looking back at it, if the elims delayed their arson and picked targets that wouldn't be exed, it would have taken five cycles to reach a 2v:2e scenario. That's fair odds. Unfortunately, the way it worked out, I was blindsided by everything the Forgers could do and how few there were. As I mentioned in the doc, the game was frustrating to play because after one elim was caught, it was just village flip after village flip and nothing substantive to make reads from because there was no evil teammawork to spot. I could have guessed the conversion ability, which is actually what I pretended the role was, but there was little reason to turn on my trusts until the rest of the presumably two or three person team was killed. And by the time I got around to suspecting something was fishy, I was elim killed in a game where the rules specifically say there is no elim kill. I don't fault Illwei at all for deepwolfing. They genuinely gained trust while a villager and I saw no reason to ignore my C1 and C2 reads. Turning on them would have been illogical, based on what I knew. I'm glad you used up all your luck in the MU game. I love the concept and think this game had potential. However, in practice, it wasn't the best player experience. I think it would have been funner if I'd known what to expect, like if the conversion had been advertised in the initial ruleset. Thanks all the same for running it.
  11. Archer
    Oop, I gave up too early. If it was 2v:3e:1k, I think this game would be over and an elim win. So the kandra must have been converted from the eliminator team. I suspect it was the former Soother, because they didn't vote manipulate. The kandra therefore has access to two kills, and can dictate who wins or loses. Interestingly, I don't think the elims know who it is. So enjoy that discussion in the doc. :P. If they exe two villagers tonight, we lose. So we need to convince the kandra to aid our cause. If it's you, Ashbringer, I offer you the Lerasium spike. No votes during the day cause no one to die. We can continue until you can buy it. If it's you, Mat, I offer some excellent RP opportunities. Philico the kandra can fend off my ventriloquist dummy character I haven't used since Day Two in an exciting battle of wits! And to you, Biplet, I offer the opportunity to delay the game long enough for Striker to make a 10,000 word writeup for the Aftermath, which will probably be very enjoyable!
  12. Archer
    Anyone want to hear my theory about who the elim team is? :P. I guess we're playing this out because the kandra is still alive and kicking. It's up to them now how they want things to go. Also, I had no plan for tonight. I was trying to soft Hazekiller, but no one bit. Dannex, Drake, you're my teammates so let's do some strategizing. I don't suppose we're lucky enough to have all the blackmail between us? Should we even show our cards like that?
  13. Archer
    Hm. I'm tentatively reading Drake as village for that post. :P. He's at least convinced me about Biplet. Unfortunately we have under an hour to sort this out, and it's a Saturday morning, so who knows who will be on. I will be, because adrenaline. Edit: I didn't mean to try to green out Ashbringer, I should have greened out Mat. And I forget the code on mobile so sorry. That is a vote on Ash, not a weird vote and retraction in one post thing. Sorry Ashbringer's lack of counterclaim to being the Leecher is enough to make me want to vote on them. I'm not the Soother, or Leecher, so that part of your analysis is off, but we'll get to that after rollover. Ashbringer
  14. Archer
    When I wake up tomorrow, I'll add my vote to the village consensus, whatever it is. Mat's vote doesn't matter to me, it's what Dannex, Drake, and one of Biplet/Ash think. I'm willing to give Drake the benefit of the doubt, but I'd like to see the receipts. You could be kandra for all we know. If you can show that Ash is absolutely the roleblocker, I'll support the exe. But until then, the reads are leading me more to Mat. I equally sussed him and Biplet not too long ago (hence why I liked the tie). Moving onto Ash, beyond Biplet, and away from Mat this round... it's doable for me, but I'd like to see the process that took us there. And some VILLAGE support too. I fully expect a hammer if the opportunity presents itself, so currently votes from elims mean nothing. @Dannex @Biplet thoughts on trying Ash?
  15. Archer
    Thanks, Striker. Also, nice writeup. Dannex, the elims will exe a villager tommorow night, because they won't exe their teammates. There's a small chance they'll hit the kandra instead, so that's the one thing you need to consider. Might be worth not giving them a perfect target? But if it was Drake, he has a Vest. I think a better approach would be saying whether our top sus, Mat, is who you scanned. Then, uh, use your best judgement! Tomorrow Night right before rollover you should say who it is in case YOU get NKed. Mat asking didn't work so you decide to try yourself? Pfft it's like you're not even trying to distance I have been vote manipulating, but I'm not a soother. On Day One and Day Three I cancelled my votes by storing bronze. My feruchemical ability is Sentry. In another world, if I'd had some sort of protection, I could have found out who targeted me with an NK, or if I'd had enough charges, I could have identified the thief, but as such it hasn't been good for anything but subtly forcing a tie between Biplet and Matrim D3. There was vote manipulation D2 that wasn't me. I believe based on TJ and Mist's flips, provided Mat and Drake don't own up to a feruchemical ability that did it, that a vote was soothed off of Biplet. A vote was soothed off of Mat D1 when different players voted anyway, so I'm pretty sure it had to be soother activity. One exists and chose to protect Mat and Biplet. Not the best look, despite what I said earlier. I hope that helps you guess at the elim team roles. Since there hasn't been any rioting, you should be pretty close to knowing what everyone has, ya? Assuming no repeats. I wasn't lying in our PM, D1, Drake. If you reread it, my assumption should tell you everything you need to know. The most I want to say publicly is if we make it through the night, we might not be in as bad shape as it looks. Or am I bluffing? :P. Also, Mat, Ash and... Who is your third, Drake, if you're not eliming Biplet? Matrim's Dice
  16. Archer
    Imagine being an investigator and getting to scan someone every round for free Dannex conf town, very cool. Would you be able to tell if someone was kandrafied? Or would that happen after the scan? @StrikerEZ, where's it fit into the OOA? If you scanned me, go ahead and reveal. It doesn't really matter who they kill, a villager is a villager. Who are you leaning towards when it comes to the exe? Your vote will be needed.
  17. Archer
    From Night Three Edit: nevermind, I thought you guessed the kandra was the coinshot. You were on the right track anyway
  18. Archer
    Yup. I think if the elims had a guaranteed win, which would stem from a majority, Experience would have ended the game. So the ratio must be 3v:2v. I'll admit I'm partially hedginf my bets in case you are evil. If there was more bussing than I thought, it could be a Liranil-Szeth team. I'm 90% confident it's a Szeth-Mat team though, but why not vote for the overlap? Reading D1, it's hard to see Ashbringer-Illwei's interactions as anything but village-elim. He had to stay up to fend off the vote switching, the poor man. I made a few big working assumptions about this game after D2. 1. The death of Ash was unplanned. That cleared Liranil, who picked Ash out of a four-way tie. It didn't seem necessary to bus him then when he could have been spared and a villager could have been killed instead, saving bussing for later when it was more needed and closer to exlo. 2. Only one elim PMed me. I abandoned that theory when I turned on Dannex. I think Summer PMed me before Ash, so it kinda makes sense. I doubt Summer reported back to the elim doc in the kind of explanatory way Ash would, which would create the kind of situation I envisioned. To recap, Summer basically said: "Hey, can I learn about your role please?" I gave him the spiel, then he said, "Does the alignment switch work on elims? We could use that to check someone's alignment". I pointed out that as a neutral I'd rather keep in reserve. To which they responded, "use it on someone random and then you'll be vanilla and we'll let you live because you're unthreatening." Except he did it all in text speak. Summer was a hard guy to read, not just because his posts were hard to read. He gave really weak rationale for his D2 vote, so I can see suspecting them. The other reason I'm on Szeth right now though is I don't want to lose because I exed everyone less active than me and the elims were more hopping than me. I'll cast my final vote around 3 hours before rollover, and prioritize consensus over which of those two is the most suspicious, because it's close.
  19. Archer
    Of course. That’s why he targeted low activity players. At least we know he didn’t communicate with the elim team. Wow that kandra purple is splendid. Would he have turned a villager or a potential elim? AHHHH. (Well guessed, Bip) I mentioned having a plan last night, hoping to get roleblocked in Araris’ stead. It didn’t happen. Araris had two actions, so he could have conceivably submitted a kill and committed suicide. (Right GMs, OOA allows for that?) Then the other kill would be from the elims. Likely they picked Flyingbooks, as the more confirmed townie than Devo. Araris seemed on the fence about Mat, so if he was village aligned, as he seemed, it’s possible he wanted to see the other theif’s alignment flip. Striker, if an elim is made into the kandra, is their wincon still to help the evil team win? Otherwise they should just submit their own kill as well as the NK every night seconds before rollover to override the elim team’s wishes. There’s seven of us left. Assuming a four-person elim team minus Lotus, it’s either 3e:3v:1vk or 4v:2e:1ek. Either way, we’re at exlo and need to kill an elim today to have a chance of victory. I was hoping Dannex or someone was the kandra because it meant we had more villagers we could be confident in. As it stands, my reads are: Village: Archer, Drake Slight good: Ash Null: Dannex Slight evil: Szeth Evil: Biplet, Mat We can assume the elims will use every tool at their disposal to block and move votes, so we need to as well. However, Mat asking for roleclaims makes me not want to do it any more. :P. I still think he’s the best target. We know the other Thief is village, doesn’t it make sense that he’d be evil? But I’m willing to do Biplet as well. We need at least a three person voting bloc. Ideally four. The elims will likely hammer late in the day if they have the opportunity.
  20. Archer
    Hi, Liranil! Was just about to PM you. Okay so Ash pinged Szeth to vote D1, then Szeth voted on Ash. That was weird, but could be elimmates looking to distance after a convo in the Elim doc made a strategy. You voted very late D2, which my working theory is blindsided the elims. Summer, who is evil? Had already voted for me but was offline. Szeth was also off the whole cycle. Leaving Ash alone and caught off guard because he blue texted being afk for the evening. So that's why he died? The other explanation is a bus, which would implicate any of us. But. If you look at D1, Illwei messed with Ash a lot at the end of the cycle, which seems like unnecessary pressure to add to a teammate. And if you didn't bus him, you know that the plan wasn't to put Ash in danger intentionally so it doesn't make sense for me to craft a crazy scheme to implicate him. As for the roles, I'm kinda hoping it's an alignment concealer and we've already exed an elim, just don't know it. But that's verrrry tinfoil, and shouldn't be relied on. Especially because Ash flipped evil Edit: Also, these titles are awesome, @Experience
  21. Archer
    This game. Aaaah. Yeah, exlo. Yeah, someone towncore is evil. Great. Great. Might as well go for the deepwolf. I think Szeth been pinging me the most, but oh boy do I have low confidence now. Really hoping Summer isn't village, but I'd hate to go out exing inactives. This is the most interesting it's been all game. That vote is very much fluid. Experience, does the VC number sign mean anything?
  22. Archer
    I expect the elims will have to both roleblock Araris, to stop his kill, and kill him, to stop his kills going forward. So the rest of us can basically act with impunity. In light of that, I'm going to mention now that I've got a plan that might end up catching an elim? Drake knows my role, so he should have an idea of what I'm up to. If it flops, we'll have that conversation after. It depends what Team Evil does But yeah, dibs on one of the cheap items. I'll use my other action for shopping.
  23. Archer
    I agree his playstyle is suspicion inducing. In the aftermath, some pointers may be sent his way. But TUO gets exed a lot for doing basically what he did here. I don't like it, but it does present an easy opportunity for the elims to waste an exe by doing a CC. Like you did against Randy last LG, Araris. By crusading, you're concluding that we have no better suspects than inactivity induced null reads; after eight rounds, the best shot we have is a shot in the dark based on only recent evidence. TUO didn't help things by ignoring the pressure on them, which was reminiscent of e!Lotus, but this shouldn't have gone through. I believe the elims supported it. It's telling that Ashbringer, Biplet, and Mat were on that train. That could well be the full elim team right there. Although, Szeth's attacks on v!Araris have been pretty suspicious this round. Seems like an elim grasping for a direction for the exe that isn't their teammate. I invite anyone who has a roleblock item to consider using it tonight. The elims need to roleblock and submit a kill tonight. They'll probably have one person do both, but even so, with village reads, there's what, a one in five chance of stopping them? And if we don't, it'll be exlo and too late, so you might as well try.
  24. Archer
    That's actually probably true. Either the elims have succeeded in deefwolfing and therefore have no incentive to play hardball, or there's been little opposition to the village so far. I still pick Kingsway over Summer though because of my only one elim would PM me D1 theory, and the defending Ash Liranil mentioned. I like seeing the votes coming in because a tiny voice in my head worries that there's actually 3 elims left, not 2, so we may need our full group to avoid a 1am hammer.
  25. Archer
    I sympathize with the desire to CC players who aren't helping the team. But it was too late in the game for that, and I think most people knew that. I'm suspicious of Biplet especially for casting her vote solely based on contribution crusade intentions. She made good points at the wrong time. There's usually some inactive elims, and that sucks, but it's better to focus on the catchable ones. It's frustrating because I know most of those votes came from villagers. I believe Mat is evil and the elims tipped the scales towards TUO in order to protect their teammate and waste our exe. Sidenote, I'm thinking the soother might be village, because they haven't been trolling us very much, as I'd expect an evil one to do. Or maybe they're holding them in reserve. So, where do we go from here?
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