Archer
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Everything posted by Archer
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I have two theories: 1. Illwei wants to see how people will react to their vote on Dannex. If that's the case, here ya go Illwei 2. Illwei think Dannex is playing a tighter game than usual and finds that suspicious. Either way, if you can't find anything to back up meta reasoning, it's probably not worth pursuing. Gut reads should lead to arguments; if you can't justify your vote, it's suspicious.
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I started my last post thinking I'd throw a vote on Araris, but by the end of it had decided not to. I rewrote that paragraph a few times afterwards. I'm sticking with a solid null on Araris. I agree with their meta pointers, but they're NAI. They do good RP though. I understand Quinn's line of attack, and will consider it when picking my final vote, but I don't think it's worth settling on right now. *pocket, pocket* Village reading Illwei seems like NAI friend-bias to me Thank you!
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Hi all. My plan this game is use PMs for RP while doing analysis in thread. We'll see how well that goes. I agree Silence is likely village, and that the elims probably have some sort of protection. As said, Mat appears to have thought this was a 16 person game and decided rounding down made sense with the roles available. I disagree, but I understand how they came to that conclusion. They appear to have read the rules a while ago and had a list of thoughts to add ready on their mental backburner. After writing about the elims' possible protection abilities, they had that in mind and had forgotten about the villages' many protection roles and items. As a double edit add-in, I don't think it was a clever elim ploy to make us underestimate the number of people on their team. Now, they later stood by the guess, but also later acknowledged that 20% seems low. I can see how v!Mat came to the conclusion he did, then realized his mistake and changed his mind, so I don't think it's necessarily an elim slip. The LG60 distribution was 3e:8v:3n for a 14 person game. One neutral was eventually converted to the elim team. Notably, Elandera advertised the existence of the neutral alignment in that game and listed the potential roles. She didn’t disclose some of the secret mechanics of the game, which mostly involved immunity or susceptibility to certain actions, but was fairly forthright overall about roles’ existence. Reading the GMs Aftermath notes, I think she disliked the number of neutrals in the game and how some people got shafted by the rules and RNG, concluding, “I would probably make the game a little less role-madness in favor of items and actions for everyone.” Therefore, I believe this game likely has no neutrals. We may have vanillas, but everyone should have some sort of action they can reliably take, either through a role or an item. My distribution guess would be 4e:11v. We have action scans that can catch elim kills, an item that can block them, and two roles that do the same. That is enough to warrant a 29% elim distribution. I agree with Quinn that an activity poke from Araris is different from their usual opening foray. Their stated reasoning allows them to easily retract it later, and if they are an elim, move to defensively vote. Giving them the benefit of the doubt, I suspect they simply didn’t have enough to base a stab vote on. I agree that we should get votes flying early to give us more information. And Dannex isn’t an entirely cowardly choice to poke; they have a history of being MLed early, but going down fighting in a way that draws attention to their attackers the next cycle. I’ve got time to keep notes this game, so I’m marking this down, but I understand it enough not to throw a vote on Araris. Based on their language, Azmine is an experienced mafia player. Welcome! To answer your question, in SE, exlo is not announced, and has no mechanical effect on the game. Best way to scumhunt is to be accusatory, so if you had to vote right now, who would you pick? (So you know, no vote isn't an option in these games; someone is always selected for execution in the Day.) I actually got a sunburn yesterday, it was so warm. I'm about to PM everyone with an RP character, so I gotchu. * @Elandera I have some questions about PM listening. If a players uses Listen at the Door, do they receive a transcript of the requested PM during rollover, or immediately? If a player uses a Hidden Transcript, is the player added to the PM, or given a transcript? Are they told who was involved in the PM? Are players allowed to make multiple PMs with the same person over the course of the day, and if so, would PM spying actions provide read outs of all of them, or just one
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mafia championship A Knock from Outside the Cosmere
Archer replied to Metacognition's topic in Sanderson Elimination
This is a cool mechanic. If I'm reading it right, you can't change your vote after casting it when at exlo, which opens up so many strategic complications Much obliged, but I don't think my playstyle would translate well into this kind of setting. I withdraw from consideration. -
Signing up as Sally 'Snoops' Starlingo, gossip columnist for Trendy Threnody Magazine. Are group PMs allowed?
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Well, that was foreseeable, but the elim team reveal isn't as disappointing as I thought it might be. Mistakes were made, the game went sideways, ah well. I feel jokingly validated for sheeping Illwei, even if I'm really sorry how that turned out for you @The Unknown Order. You die early a lot. On the one hand, you did a good job poking holes in it and made me doubt myself afterwards. But on the other hand, your counter-arguments were in bad faith (being evil and all). In the shoes of a villager, I knew Quinn was good. Same with Mat and Illwei, deep down. I feel like those were generally accepted and I didn't need to rehash it. I also correctly surmised you'd split up your PMs, so even if one of them was evil, there was more elims to hit in the other pool. After C2 everyone in there but Tani and Bridge-Four had two or less posts. Could the elim team have been PizzaPower, Xino, and Jondesu? Sure. If so, did we have any reasonable chance of catching them? No. If there's not someone on the elim team who is responsive and talkative, it's hard to get any of them. So either this was a winnable game or it wasn't, and I decided to proceed as if it was. My biggest error was I was completely wrong about the NK reasoning. But I stand by my argument that we should have left the potential elim in the high octane pool be until the end and targeted the other people. Unfortunately, Tani received cover from villagers, not frightened elims and we never got close. @Bridge-Four Good first game! What was up with the grey text? Oh, and GMs, you did swell. I like the dead doc formatting, and the write-ups were good. Overall, it was a nice quick game.
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Because of all the copy-pasting I did, this post will be a formatting nightmare under the spoiler tags. You've been warned. Mat ISO: Day One Day Two Day Three Hi, Gears! Sorry you lost. Right now it’s 7v:3e. If we exe one and NK one, it becomes 5:3 (Exlo). If we mix two, and NK one, it’s 4:3 (Exlo). I understand the logic. Responses to ISO: I actually skimmed it when I first read it. The second time I read it seemed less aggressive, so apologies for that. **** So where does that leave me? Between Quinn and Gears' points, I've abandoned my theory on the elim kill choices. Realistically, Tani isn't in danger right now and I'm not sure my voting them accomplishes much today. In my discussion with B4, they said their top reason for voting Mat was their late vote switch, and I don't see that the same way. I'm not ready to vote them. Tani Whoever I think of in the next two hours
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These are fair responses. My personal response to the situation of 2 would have been different. 4 still seems odd. And right now, they amount to better leads than I have on anyone else until I ISO some other high posters tommorow. Hm. Perhaps Dannex is the one I need to ISO instead. I've been going by multi game average contribution profiles, because that's what Elim me would use too. If Dannex regressed to their mean they'd be less threatening than if Illwei regressed to their mean. Bridge Four, your list is helpful, but without reasons attached, it's unconvincing.
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Fair question. I wanted to explain my reason for voting Tani tonight so they’d have a chance to respond to it, then was going to ISO them tomorrow, but I’ll do it now. This post is going to be confbias because I’m trying to shade them here, but as I believe they’re an elim, it’s worth doing. They’ve wanted to coordinate PM distribution throughout, and have shown interest in who received them from who. Could be innocent, could be an elim fishing. They said they were worried about giving away a good strategy, but relented as soon as Quinn said hey, you might as well say. In contrast, I, a villager, had thoughts about how we could catch elims based on kills and PMs, but I kept them to myself until they were relevant to avoid the IKYK. This post didn’t actually make sense to me. Once again, they did the call and response thing. I don’t understand why they didn’t just say elims distance! Or not! And here’s the implications! They’re asking for pre-validation of their points, which is just odd. Relatable content. I like that they said who they have a PM with, because that’s helpful information, but otherwise, this doesn’t help much. Maybe it’s just their playstyle, but for the amount they’ve posted, I would have expected a little more substance. They had a lot of short, banter posts that I didn’t quote. But in a game where we’re struggling to cause controversy, so far Tani has been fairly neutral. *** 1. It's that you're active and the elims haven't been killing active players and because of the PMs I've recieved. 2. If myself, Quinn, Illwei, Mat, and you are village, one of us should have been elim killed by now. That's the suspicious Mat I've come to know and love! -Illwei is my weakest read of the people I've got PMs with. But joking about something like that still feels overly bold for an elim. They seemed to actually want me to play along. -If there's no active elim, who is your top suspect? The rest of the pool has two or less posts in the last two cycles. -Tani has off-site experience, and is more familiar with the group than BridgeFour is. -If I sus Gears, I'll get zero response due to his IRL situation. It'd be a repeat of last cycle, when y'all sussed Kingsway and he didn't reply. -I'm explaining why I'm voting for them. I could frame it as being based on the content of their posts, but that'd be misleading. See above though for the best red flags I could find. -We have two more kills before we lose. I'm narrowing my focus to what I see as our best chance of success. If there's no active elim, we're finished anyway. And the thread has been gravitating away from the top activity players, which I see as unusual, so there's no harm putting the spotlight back on them. I'm happy to take some heat if it means getting some voting action. The tone on this post was weirdly hostile.
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I started this post an hour ago, so the last four posts aren't considered. What’s pointing me towards Tani is my theorized elim profile is one of them is fairly active. I’m reading Quinn (their end of C1 posts seemed village), Mat (sussed me after I suggested they change votes from Kingsway, indicating they didn’t know their alignment), and Illwei as village (their attempt at becoming conftown was so ill conceived an elim wouldn’t have done it). After them, Tani is the most active player. The alternatives: -PizzaPower posted once to say ‘hi’. Unreadable. Jondesu has made two posts. Their only non-RP statement so far has been: Obviously it wasn’t bussing and Kings was innocent, so so far Jondesu has been completely wrong. But this isn’t enough to go on, and more importantly doesn’t match the profile I’m looking for. -Xino has made one post: He himself says he’s sub-active. I disagree with the vote, but at least it hasn’t been disproved yet and it had some reasoning. -Gears has two posts total. His first I already analyzed and found little of note. Similar tinfoil to Xino, but it’s valid enough not to be suspicious. I think they’re the only person to really sus Dannex last cycle. Interesting Dannex has now died. But I’m inclined to think an elim wouldn’t kill someone who’d make their analysis look bad in retrospect. Didn’t they swear off info kills last game? That’s an interesting inconsistency, but once again the e!self-inflicted contradiction would not be ideal. After all those players are eliminated, we’re left with BridgeFour and Tani, who both have a dozen or so posts. My guess is that BridgeFour as a rookie wouldn’t think of the strategy the elims are using. If they are an elim, they’d make fear kills and probably not be worried about being the last talkative person standing. So process of elimination brings me to Tani as my top suspect.
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The exe on TUO was too easy. And Dannex has a similar profile to Liranil; active, but not widely village read. Both of those concern me. I received a PM from Kingsway that they never used. I also received PMs from Quinn, Mat and Illwei, and sent one to BridgeFour. (This disproves Illwei’s statement that they sent a PM to Liranil, by the way.) I assume the elims coordinated their PM choices and decided to each message a different person. I assume I have not yet been elim killed so they can maximize their PM with me, and to disguise the active player(s) on their team. It may be that four villagers decided to PM me though, so let’s assume there’s zero to one elims in the group of Mat, Illwei, and Quinn. That means there’s two to three elims in the group of Gears, Tani, Jondesu, Xino, BridgeFour, and PizzaPower.
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Can confirm, I asked to have a PM with BridgeFour. Also, everyone please vote! Even if y'all just randomly pick someone, at least it'll scare the elims into action.
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Huzzah! Shame you had to become his demon in exchange. Also, Tani, because I haven't village read you yet, whereas I've managed to temporarily clear pretty much everyone else who has posted a similar amount in my head. It's a process of elimination vote, and one to start a new wagon.I really hate how flimsy my reasons have been so far this game. It's all been meta. Not to worry, 1am Archer is here to sort things out. (Also, can confirm Quinn PMed me.) First of all, I apologize for exing you, TUO. I misread your posts and expected more vote movement. You seemed to be having fun, so your being village is painful. Second, until Jondesu, PizzaPower, and Xino make meaningful posts, I’ll be ignoring them entirely. That helpfully reduces my suspect list to ten. Initial thoughts: -Why was Liranil selected as the elim kill target? Rereading their posts, they made no controversial statements and would have been fairly hard for the village to read, but they voted TUO, which increased their likelihood of being mis-exed as they were wrong. Personally, if I wanted to make a low info kill, I’d have targeted someone like PizzaPower. Liranil was probably identified as more likely to vote, and therefore more likely to potentially exe an elim, but with so many people being village read (Quinn, myself, Dannex etc), I expected someone with village cred to be hit instead. I’m guessing that means someone fairly trusted is actually an elim, and they can’t kill off the most villagey people because when that person isn’t attacked within the first few cycles, people will take notice. -I don’t think e!Mat is afraid of Liranil. So they didn’t try to get them exed, and then upon failing that, resort to using the elim kill. I can see e!Mat trying to make an IKYK situation, but I can just as easily argue that it’s unlikely the elims would risk exing someone they have publicly argued should be killed. I’m leaning towards the latter explanation. -Free village points to anyone who tried to PM Liranil. I'll conf-town you even. Any takers? -Why did so few people vote last cycle? 8/14 isn’t bad, but our ideal game plan is to make the elims have to pad the margins on one wagon to reduce the risk of another one secretly overtaking it and exing an elim. And we need to force their hand soon if we are to win. After seeing TUO’s wagon wasn’t being meaningfully opposed, we should have tried to bring some other options into the mix. Quinn said as much late in C1, so I’m reading them as village for it. Village points to Mat too for agreeing with them. And Dannex for saying this round that communication is good. But elims can say those kinds of things when they aren’t in any danger, so those aren’t confirmed reads. -Ignoring my reads for a second, the flow of the exe appears to be directed towards traditionally less active players. I attribute that partially to the lack of thunderdoming and certain meta discussions happening in the community right now, but I still find it odd. We've got four days to find an elim. My gut says we're not on the right track. -Pre-game, I brainstormed what I think the elim profile would be under these circumstances. That led me to feign nonchalance about PM distribution because I was hoping to see how people would act if given a free choice. I’m guessing that elims were likely ambivalent about the whole thing, or sought to structure the distribution to their advantage. I doubt they were eager to be confrontational about it and draw suspicion, so village points to everyone who said something to the effect of ‘eh, I’ll just PM who I want to.’ By that logic, mild sus on Dannex and Tani (but they parroted their pre-game opinions) and kudos to Kingsway and Gears, but really, no one really came out hard against vote organization. I was going to give village points to anyone who did. -I believe that the optimal elim PM making strategy is to have exclusively made PMs with villagers. This increases their influence. If we all announce who we sent a PM to (and who we received one(s) from, to check for consistency), when we get an elim flip, we can village clear whoever they sent a PM to. I’d also guess that each elim will target a different villager, so if we find someone who has received multiple PMs, and one of the people that sent a PM to them later flips elim, we can clear both the receiver and the other people who messaged the receiver. -This would give the elims a decent amount of information and allow them to systematically sever our lines of communication with their kills. However, I do not see this as a big loss. Players often hesitate to kill their PM buddies, which can look similar to elim team shielding. If we know who all is connected to who, that becomes irrelevant while giving us some valuable information from elim flips. I also know that the first to volunteer information will probably be villagers, so I suggest we all agree to do it, then actually do it, if we're going to do it. Thoughts?
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Sisar read the OP and realized magic was discouraged at this party. They groaned. Not even a little spell? Where’s the fun in that? They began exiting the dance floor, stopping to snag a slice of melon from the buffet on the way, before making their way up a spiral staircase to the first balcony. It was dark, so they procured a wax light from an alcove in the wall. It was frivolously shaped like a bird. Some people have too much money. They made their way to the outside portion, which had a large cloth awning. There was a nice seat there, so they sat for a moment to rest their legs. It was quiet. Too quiet. They began to think about the deadly disease they were afflicted with. Darn. And so the kandra who can’t cast cantrips carried a capitalist canary candle and cantaloupe cross-section to the canopy covered chair and contemplated their cancer. * I think I’ll put a vote on TUO. Illwei voted for them, and they have good instincts D1. They also give me Flyingbooks in the LG vibes; they have upped their game. It’s unfortunate if it is an elim tell because I’d rather reward that than penalize it. I am also conscious of the fact that they were the first NK in the LG. But while my vote will make a three-person wagon on them, I’m expecting high vote turnout and plenty of late action which I won’t be around for. So this isn’t a killing blow in any sense. I know that’s all meta. My elim gut read on them is based on meta. To be fair to TUO, I’ll ISO them and highlight their most suspicious content. I'll be voting every round, and it will likely have a pun attached. So beware. -TUO Regularly voting is the default, so by making an effort to declare it, perhaps they know in advance they will make controversial accusations. I like puns though. You, Archer, a little bit Tani, and Dannex, you and Tani are gut reads and Archer and Dannex feel village mostly because of their ideas, I see them as wrong, but village. I’m curious why you don’t trust Mat. It smells like recency bias. That is probably my weakest point, the reason I would prefer to not say who I'm voting is because, if I actually for some reason need to change last minute, I'll get instant sussed. All of my votes this game are going to be random due to my character. I also rarely get suspicions in the early cycles, so saying my vote in thread when I don't normally vote wouldn't make sense. Unfortunately, my vote this round is going on someone I trust, but that's what happens. If you’re randomly voting, your vote will rarely matter. There’s a two-vote threshold for exes. I’m generally not a fan of random voting, especially if you have reads like you said you have already, but this feels like you know it’s going to go poorly and are doing damage control early. Okay, let’s look at Gears. They often get ignored because of the structure of their posts, so this game I’m trying to keep a closer eye on them. Lumi: Useless poke vote [what's the point?] Poke votes have less teeth, but only if people realize that. Lumi: Vil!Danex [really? I don't concur] The Dannex is village argument has merit. Knowing they’re wrong, had they successfully exed me, it would have looked bad for them. I don’t think an elim would take that risk. Taniel: IKYK! [This statement, as well as Taniel's post wherein they agree, seems dramatically overstated, though Tani does have a very dramatic personality. I agree, in retrospect. Same with everything Illwei has said so far. I’m leaning towards it just be personality, but I know Gneo/Tani’s got off-site experience, so they should know to be careful. They relented pretty quickly. If Quinn was an elim Tani just handed them what they thought was valuable information with little convincing. I’ll go ahead and guess Gneofromthematrix and Quinn are not e-e based on this though. It felt genuine. [Order's opinions have been consistently strange] Order: Doesn't like getting suspicion [OrderSuspicion++; Who cares if you get suspected? What matters is what helps the village, not what helps you.] I’m getting the sense that Gears plans to vote for TUO. Illwei: Will suspect them, 3 elims, PMs don't matter [true] Generally a lot of agreement with Illwei in this summary, so that’s noted. I don’t think it’s overly suspicious though, because in their conclusion they mention it and call it strange. Everything I didn’t quote from their post I agree with, so Gears is looking fairly clean at the moment. Good lad. Now why is everyone voting Mat? Did I miss something they said? (That's entirely possible) And are you sussing Dannex for the voting me then retracting it thing, or something else? Welp, I was village reading you for having the confidence to vote early, but I probably need to walk that back a bit. Early on is relative, I'll note. With no elim kills, this game finishes at the end of Day 4. That reminds me, elim kills will be weird in this game. They have to avoid hitting people who might be exed.
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First of all, good game, everyone! Thanks for running it, Devo and Mat. To your point, Gears, it's a hard conversation to have because it will be dominated by traditionally active people. But I'll try to put into words where I'm at. I don’t believe you can play an effective game of SE by relying on summaries, skimming, or sheeping. If obvious connections exist, it is possible to make easy judgment calls and support the right exes. Otherwise, much of the game is based on nuance. People create posts that explain their thoughts. To properly evaluate how suspicious they are, it is important to read the whole post as it was intended to be read. Furthermore, I am incapable of reading players who provide few original thoughts, reads, or votes. This arbitrarily limits my suspect pool. It also leads to my being exed or NKed more frequently than lower activity people. If any elims have adopted a quiet playstyle, I feel it unfairly lowers my chance of winning. I feel that it is reasonable to ask players to post frequently and substantively enough that I can get a read on them. Consideration should be given to their IRL situation, but that should not be used as an excuse. I am struggling to balance letting players who enjoy being flies on the wall play the game how they want to with my desire to have a good chance of success. That all came out a little more pointed than I intended to be, but for the sake of conciseness, I'll leave it as is.
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Actually it's spelled Gneordien I'm really struggling to figure out why you're gut reading me as an elim. If it's any help, that post was a pre-write. I'll go against the grain and say ah ha! Your suspicions are performative! Gottem. As I alluded to earlier, I believe that the elims benefit more from limited accountability than the village does. At least if the exe is decided in public, we can debate its merits. Otherwise, it'll be a moot point, a bunch of people discussing their reasons for exing someone who has already flipped. Enter my request that people at least post their top suspicions. Name three people you might exe, make a public record of your reasons. That way the elims have to at least come up with reasonable excuses to exe their target. Otherwise they can just say afterwards that so and so was sus and I switched to them at last minute, my bad. I'm undecided whether we should declare who we plan to PM or not. We'd benefit by maximizing our PMs, but odds are there will be little overlap anyway. I'd like to be able to spot who is e-e versus who is a PM buddy with someone, so having information would be good. But I don't think it's vital information to have right now, as it isn't likely to be relevant very soon. But hey, I just found out I'll have a PM buddy, so yay Good observation.
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Sisar absent-mindedly rubbed the spike in their forearm. The cloth of their tailored suit was rubbing against it. It was a different kind of spike than the usual ones a creature like them bore. An upgrade of sorts, they decided. They strolled along the edge of the dance floor. Their walking stick tapped lightly on the marble floor with every step they took, just out of sync with the beat of the song the band was playing. It was comforting to have it in their possession. They always felt more honest when wielding it. True to themselves even. And right then, they felt a deep desire to join the dancing. With a cane, the arcane kandra can candidly can can. And so they did. * I’m here and excited to play! But I’m currently working on an essay due tomorrow, so I don’t expect to be very active until Saturday. -I'm guessing a three-person elim team, as the win con is parity. But I'm terrible at these kinds of predictions, so don't put too much faith in that please. -I plan to sheep the most reasonable of Illwei’s votes this cycle. They have a knack for voting elims D1. I’ll make an effort to argue why I chose the option I do, but that’s my intention going in. -I have someone in mind I plan to PM. I don’t think a chain system will remain intact or reliable for very long. I would prefer everyone just made a free choice, but am largely ambivalent on that front. -I support using the coloured votes system to keep track of intentions. I foresee maybe 75% of those being accurate, then about a quarter of people are going to claim to have switched last minute or that they wanted to mis-lead the elim team. The elims benefit more from doing that than the villagers do, so if we can avoid normalizing that, I’d appreciate it. -If you don’t want to commit to a public vote, I suggest you give us your top three suspicions and commit to voting one of the people on the list. Communication is important. Your goal should be to get village read so we can avoid mis-exing you. You need to give us some thoughts to analyze so we can do that. Thank you in advance.
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To re-iterate Mat's request, please save this conversation for after the game begins. I understand wanting to share your ideas early so you aren't mis-read for them, but that's part of them game. If optimal strategy is pre-established, it limits discussion D1, and means that anyone who breaks with it will be put under a cloud of unfair suspicion.
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Signing up as Sisar, a kandra who can can-can.
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I have a suggestion for the breaktank people to consider trying out: a "MR" game with cycles that end at surprising times. Each cycle would be between 24 and 48 hours Before the game, the GM would set out when each rollover would occur but not inform the players. To provide some structure, cycles would only ever end at the top of the hour. An example set-up might be: D1 is 28 hours long, D2 is 37 hours long, D3 is 25 hours long, D4 is 31 hours long etc. Such a game would incentivize early-cycle activity and reduce end-of-day vote avalanches, which can be frustrating. Timezone troubles and accidental inactivity are foreseeable difficulties.
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Mm. I indeed knew both of those things were known. Just to recap, I exposed my role for the sole purpose of telling you that there might be nine Hps, but there might also be ten. I don't regret any decisions I have made in the last half hour at all, no sir
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Alright, I’m bad at staying anonymous, and I’m a prime NK candidate. So here’s the deal with the Hp doc. When we first received it, there were nine HP slots available. We all claimed one, although two have not been touched. I asked the GMs whether if Illwei had survived, there would have been 10, but didn’t get a straight answer. I’m thinking we should assume there has only ever been nine Hps, not ten as I first thought. That means one regular role is doubled up, or there’s a vanilla player. (Sorry if that’s you.) We unanimously activated a Highstorm N1. Tonight, we were more divided, but it looks like we’re set to trigger Political Vengeance or Financial Crisis, the latter being the current leader. So if you’re thinking of making a purchase, keep that in mind. Fun fact, prices round UP during the half-price sale, which is sad. 7 sphere armour becomes 4 sphere armour etc. Also, Striker probably isn't a Hp because I stole his colour and he didn't say anything.
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It makes it sound like they're in an abusive relationship, but I've been attributing Quinn's good mood to them not having to lock horns with Illwei anymore this game. Here's the thing about Araris. I've been agreeing with them a lot this game. They wanted to diversify the field of suspects, for example, which I support. They also are acting as they normally do in LGs: cast an early vote, then review their stance near rollover and more often than not, stick to their guns and see what happens, especially if their vote won't change things. What was a red flag for me was them saying Dannex was beyond saving, but that they really didn't support their exe. I feel like they could have done more to defend Dannex, either with verbal arguments, or by voting Whysper. Last minute vote movements are common enough that it wasn't a done deal, in my opinion. I also expected them to jump on Elandera with me, but in retrospect, it makes sense that they stayed. I was hoping to start something with them other than TJ, who I'm tentatively village reading, but as TJ hadn't had the chance to respond to Araris' vote, he was smart to keep it in play until TJ posted again. By then I had moved on. eeeeeee. Striker keeps doing this thing where I think he thinks I'm going to sus him, so he lays the groundwork to shade me, then walks it back after I post and don't attack him. I'm not sure if it's suspicious or not. I'm looking forward to what you put in my inevitable death write-up. To clarify, I'm aware you have tech troubles and an on-going MR to deal with too. I mainly made that broadside to see if anyone would pre-emptively defend you for it, as an elim teammate might be tempted to do.
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Filico’s mouth dropped open. “No, no no!” he said, as Dannex flew off. “No! That wasn’t supposed to- what was-” He was standing on a plateau, overseeing the warcamps. He had taken to micromanaging the situation this time instead of getting his own hands dirty, and that had proved to be… entertaining. And in this case, unexpectedly difficult. He hadn’t realized how much ad libbing this side of the curtain contained. Filico raised a hand to his ear, a gesture that was unnecessary but of good flavor. Calling all hordelings, he transmitted. Code Red! Gather emergency reserves. Major fourth-wall breaching and all manner of illegal activity. Commence damage control. Below, the hordelings he had stationed in case of an emergency got to work. The people that had been dusted were remade with the combined powers of CreateLings and UndoLings. The shattered hearts replaced with RegrowLings, the scattered pieces of the fourth wall replaced with StorykeepingLings, and most importantly everyone’s brain was given a good dose of ForgetLings and MemorywipeLings. It was a messy solution, but it was better than how Dannex had left it. When it all was done, Filico sighed, sitting down on the rocks as the hordelings retreated. Below, the various members of each warcamp woke up in confusion. Crisis averted. *** This is gonna look great on my stat sheet. MR49: Exed for being an NK target LG75: Exed for defending a villager too much In all seriousness, I understand the urge to suspect me. I certainly don’t expect to be cleared over this (although Bodyguard, if you want to send some protection my way tonight, I won’t say no…). After I decided I was going all in on v!Dannex, I went into my notes and wrote a post that basically said Hps, please activate Democracy and exe me by a wide margin, because e!Dannex’s flip would have looked so bad for me that staying alive would have been pointless. In QF49 (debut game, only elim game) I proposed the theory that elims should try to get caught being right. It’s a good strategy, if done subtly. If you think something like that is going on, I’d rather you examine Araris, who spent the cycle dropping hints that they thought the Dannex was wrong, then didn’t act on it. But I’ll admit that in that QF, I was way too confident for an ignorant villager when I called flips. I’d like to think I learned from that game, and feel that if I were an elim again, I would have a more nuanced meta. I’m still not entirely sure why I defended Dannex so hard. Part of it was definitely I had a strong read on them. They’re an easy misexe, and I saw the signs that the elims didn’t care if they died. Had I been on, their claiming Spokesperson would have made me pause, because it was a bad look to ostensibly not self-pres, but really self-pres with manipulation. Vote manipulators are the bane of my existence. On that note, I’m trying to figure out how to increase my thread power when I don’t have an extra vote. My ideal position is to be someone who can influence who gets exed in a meaningful way without getting killed for it. I think taking independent stances and engaging with people as they question it helps me and the village to get information, so it’s a thing I like doing. Quick notes before bed, then I’ll do proper analysis if I survive the night: -Ashbringer is taking a page from Devo’s book this game with his vote timing. Very Machiavellian. -The Dannex train makes sense to me because they never positioned themselves to be village read, but it also didn’t make sense to me because I read the facts differently. Sus on Elandera, Quintessential, Whysper, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade, and forget me not for voting for them. I respect, however, when people dug themselves into holes defending the Dannex wagon. An elim would know they’re villagey and not want to take the fall for it. And if they saw it had opposition, there were safer options. Whysper’s vote is self-pres, Quinn really fought for it, TJ and Forge jumped on when they didn’t need to, and Striker I already village read. So my guess is Elandera is the most likely elim of that group. But you should all be ashamed of yourselves. -Forge voted with zero reasons. Randby said ‘convince me’. Noted. I respect the desire not be wrong, but it devalues the public discourse if nothing that was said over two days was enough to make you lean one way or the other. -TJ’s Flyingbooks sus is noted. I’d prefer to find the most connected and vocal elim first and probably won’t pursue it next round, but TJ seems level headed. As much as an active GM can be. -Is it hypocritical to try exing Whysper tomorrow? I just advocated against always hitting the runner up of a day, but I feel better exing them than Dannex. I’ll probably be looking at Araris, Elandera, and them D3.
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Sorry, I gtg soon so this is a hurried post. I appreciate this response because it’s pretty reasonable. I’m working off of the same information as you are, and getting very different conclusions, so I'm at least glad y'all's position is defensible. It feels like we're sticking with two C1 gut wagons based on not great reads. I believe Dannex is village. I think it was QF50 actually where they were widely mis-read and later mis-exed for playing a defensive playstyle. QF50 did have an early elim exe, or attempt at one, but that one had second lives. And a lot of last minute vote switching that made the thread hard to control from the shadows. This game is simpler. I don’t see any signs of elim intervention here. And the lack of self-pres vote has convinced me of their innocence. I think the mis-exe of Dannex will tell us very little. Just because someone secretly breaks a tie doesn’t mean the tie was e/v. I’d prefer to get out of this tunnel and widen our net to get some actual elim reactions. @Dannex are you the Spokesperson? Due diligence and all that. good distancing, they'll never know we're elim teammates now /s
