Archer

I love this game design. Hael is incentivized to lie here. The problem is that Hael could have the hat and be lying about what Drake is saying. We would need Drake to say some verifiable information for Hael to share if he's being honest. @Araris Valerian I think we can dispense with the e! prefix on Burnt. --We know they made the decision on N3B, conceding that it would give Ashbringer 50 rupees to contest Stone with. They killed a confirmed villager to limit the info it offers. --I assume they expected us to exe both Mistfallen and Burnt. I assume they expected us to prioritize Mistfallen, since they were "closer" to 50 than Scent!Burnt. --Best case scenario is Burnt gets Stone and is protected. Second best case scenario is Burnt/MF both die. --Worst case scenario is Burnt misses out on Stone, when they could have won it uncontested without the Ashbringer NK. (Could anyone else could have gotten Stone. Doc? There's an argument to be made that the other 50s are village because if the elims could get Stone uncontested, they probably just go for that. Have someone elim slip if you're worried Burnt is under pressure D1.) --So why do it? Mathematically, the POE pool was getting small, and guaranteeing 1 mix on MF (with a possible win via D2 Burnt exe without realizing they're Stone) sets them up nicely D3. I don't think there necessarily needed to be any more pressure than that of a small suspect pool to make that play worth doing. We were circling in on Burnt and Coco, so you can believe that that made them uncomfortable being passive. I can see them trying the play either way. --I've 180ed back to E!TJ because I think if you're going to try this play, you should commit to it. TJ made a big deal of proving Burnt couldn't afford Stone, which was the secret sauce to make the ruse work. (I also need to check if anyone argued for killing them both - I think we shut that down pretty quick.) -I'm looking at Burnt/Coco/Hael/TJ as the team. --Just kidding, it's obviously Stick. @Haelbarde Drake only said he knew who the Postmaster was based on the mask info?

Drake feels like a fear kill. But we should remember that WGG has come into play when we get to L4. 1. What's your theorized elim team? 2. Pragmatically, who do you think we should exe today?

90% of ghosts are nefarious. I don;t think she can physically influence the living world right now. Unless she's alive again and I missed that part of the writeup. I never figured out how the resurrection mechanic works in-story. Ouae: "Hey!" And up she rises.

True story, my D2A guess was a team that sounds vaguely like Tyrese Haliburton: Tj 'ris Hael Burnt (on). The fact that I still think that's a viable team (well, one of TJ/Araris) tells me I haven't properly reevaluated in a while. As convenient as e!TJ would be, I think e!Araris is more likely and would Bremen block them. Not me personally, having been outed by the rules lawyers, but I would if I could. Ouae had never been good at interpreting insinuations. "Take care of her?" Floating in the ether, she looked around for her butcher's knife. "Seems extreme..." "Put some food in her belly?" Thistle clarified. Ouae understood. Their head chef had once asked her to 'put food in the bellies' of some health inspectors, and handed her a bag of concrete and some rope. She floated to beside the inconvenient witness and whispered in their ear. "We're the ghost pirates. Boo!"

Psst, Doc, that's the kind of thought we keep to ourselves Okay, new announcement: Whoever has the Scent mask today is not the person who had it last loop!

I- If I knew who to block, I wouldn't have resorted to asking y'all. I've got Bremen again, presumably because no one else bothered to buy from the bargain bin. If I get NKed for it, that's honestly fine because it provides some clarity to inform the next exe. But I'm trying to get a block off and am completely lost. Search your feelings, Doc. Or this website. (I'll get to RP eventually, maybe tomorrow, sorry)

Who we plan on exing and who is evil are two different problems to solve. Presumably the elim who has died will submit the NK, and we need to Bremen block or Scents that person, or at least create IKYK headaches

My first priority tomorrow is figuring out if I think you're evil Your dead doc commentary included Burnt on the e team, but you were part of us exing Coco and provided the math to make us think Burnt couldn't afford Stone. Araris keeps hanging around in a way that's pinging me, but we'll digest that afterwards. I've got to figure out if we're hard committed to v!Coco {edit:E Coco is what I meant} now, but there's always the chance of a blocked NK, so we can get away with killing only one elim I need some evil RP in my life

Yay. Tonight would be a good time to send some PMs. That said, I think publicly solving to guide the Bremen block is the best course of action.

Araris makes a good point that we don't need to heed E!Burnt's vote. I'll just discard it and assume 3 elim votes to 10 villager votes. 5v:5v:3e is optimal distribution. Even though Burnt has single digit rupees, I think TwinStorm still loses that tie. Going to 6v:4v:3e makes Bremen effective. Hammering can upset this delicate balance as well, as people switch their votes out. The optimal play is probably to slap a few votes on Burnt for information gathering, then to exe TwinStorm with overwhelming force. If Bremen is in village hands, we can police EOD and try to counter the hammers. Edit: I forgot we need to force her to equip it. 5/5 and being okay with TS being the lead candidate is the best bet.

Not to defend potential elims, but scanning your peripheral reads is the correct move. The elims wouldn't have their most suspected teammate submit the kill. The good news for us today is that Stone!Burnt loses most tiebreakers, having spent their money. The bad news is that a 4 elim counterwagon, plus Bremen, beats our secondary wagon. So they can hammer.

I'd need a second anyway, so you can hold off checking until I see if anything else needs adjusting

Burnt I know Burnt is often on around rollover, but I do like the implications of them being constantly in the lead to force them to equip Stone, even if we hammer elsewhere. My vote is staying put. I don't think I can read TJ accurately from my position, but they're the obvious Burnt teammate. Part of me wonders if they were rupee counting on their behalf because we're right for the wrong reason. But I'm committed to voting outside the deadpool, even if it's a coinflip. If you want to believe in Coco/TS, they defended them hard on D3B. Try every third word. Three's company, after all

If no one else takes it, I can run my ranked choice voting Harry Potter game

I've changed my mind on Doc (to v!Doc). Drake had a good breakdown of how Doc puts her in a tie and sticks, then as TJ mentioned, they followed up the next night (1B) expressing willingness to try again for her death. Sadly, D1 is early enough to consider bussing/throwing (see: Burnt not self pressing and essentially abstaining). I'm shocked how little I've been hounded this loop. My voting record, if you assume e!Coco, is baaaad. Speaking of bad votes, I'll note that Araris D1B and D3B votes in a way that protects Burnt. He throws Coco under the bus D2B though, so that doesn't mesh as a team composition. If you assume E!Burnt, E!Coco, v!Araris, v!Archer, v!Divergent (counterwagon to Burnt), V!Stick (CW to Coco), the elim is TJ. Problem is that I like TJ's commitment to voting me that persisted through the dead doc. I actually think it's more likely that Divergent is evil, which is why Burnt didn't care about self-pressing: it risked making her look reactive to the exe and getting exed next cycle. Never mind, I forgot that there can be zero elims in the dead doc. I can make a team of Coco/Burnt/Hael/... then it falls apart. The solution is never to put the two low actives in as filler

That was a possibility when Stick raised it yesterday, but now we know they were in competition for Stone, so worsening their odds doesn't make sense. If you assume e!Coco, Burnt had to be the one to get Stone, lest they lose the loop. I've been assuming v!Coco and the elims being okay with Burnt dying to the exe so long as the second elim is shielded by Stone. I really like this thought. * @The Unknown Medallion the cipher can be solved mentally. I gave the conf vils the easy one. c/ping Divergent's argument for Doc-Burnt being unconnected:

I have a note that says Burnt-Doc not e-e and I don't remember why. -Elims are going for the win this cycle, as they have every cycle. -Elims expected us to exe Mistfallen and Burnt. So they're not e-e. -NK framing scheme means E!Burnt. My preference right now is to make Doc and Burnt the two top trains.

I'm scared about how often I agree with Drake's takes. I did think the Doc assumption was a leap. I like the idea that the elims assumed the exes would be MF and Burnt in an uncontrollable order. I think they were betting on Burnt survives D1 and gets Stone, or teammate gets stone and tanks the D2 exe. Or no one gets stone and we whiff on guess 3. I'd feel more confident as an elim going for it we had two shots at Stone. The fake scan is a bold move to go for without a decent advantage. We can just functionally assume it's Coco then, ya? We're already committed to them being evil. Other options include Stick and Dive who we're excluding from the target list this loop for having died. Thanks for running the numbers! I dunno, cowls? What a specific question! Make sure you look for secret messages in the solved version, anyone who is doing cipher breaking of anonymous messages You've got a head start on us, so my followup question to you is who died that was evil. Since you know it's Burnt, you should be able to guess at that

I didn't get a PM from Hael, I just wanted in on the fun Oh good, that makes things easier. Now my next question is, if E!Burnt bought Stone by misrepresenting their funds, which E!teammate bought Scent L2? Actually, that might be too long a shortlist to be useful, but I think it might exclude some of the peripheral players.

@Haelbarde Correct me if I'm wrong, PM stuff means nothing today, right? Because of OOA stuff. We've got time, I think we should nail down our working theory on which of Burnt and Mistfallen are evil. We're going to have to commit to one of those to build the team around if we're nibbling around the edges. There's voting records related to the TS and Hael almost exes we can look at.

I feel like the thread title is a cry for help - you're doing great, Aman, don't worry about us If Ash is running for mayor, I'm only voting for him if he promises to un-ban gambling. Redundancy wouldn't hurt in this set-up, because of Bremen. Instead of a boring code word, you should send a riddle for the recipient to solve.

Their bickering was loud, yet somehow, muted. Ouae had tried to lend her voice, but there was no air in her lungs to expel. The only sign of her presence was the faint smell of cupcakes. She watched from the Beyond, hovering above the casket her body lay in. It had been shoddily made, and was coming apart at the apex seam. She focussed her energy, trying to exert influence on the outside world. The smell of sugar and lemons grew stronger. The wood creaked back together as she pushed the final nail in the coffin. Burnt Coco

Rapid fire: -I'm convinced the plan was to frame Mistfallen. Surely they'd be wary of v!Scent mask. I'll vote Burnt as the elim I'm confident in. (I initially thought it was a fake claim because of how early it was. It read as false to me, and I trust that gut instinct.) -Happy to sus anyone else who gets Stone besides Ashbringer, but I fear the composition is: Burnt, Stone, inactive/trusted, L2 dead out of the POE. @Wahrheitswächter does the zombie mask matter at all to either side? -Coco thinking we're not connected is funny. They're my ride or die. (Couldn't resist, TJ) -Doc having Bunny is ugh, although I like the argument against them and Burnt being teamed. @DrakeMarshall the blue mask argument is this: L1, everyone(ish) put in two choices for blue masks. Four people got them. The elims were a quarter of the bidders, so they had a 25% chance of getting one through even distribution. If they stacked all their bids on two specific masks, it was 50% of getting one, 25% chance of two. Therefore of the L1 blue mask winners, you'd expect 0 or 1 elims. (Odds have been simplified.) -Reminder that we know TwinStorm didn't submit the N2 NK, but that's not super useful.

Much obliged! I'm still wary of a teammate having Scent, but the truth is probably the more straightforward option. I'll agree with you and Drake that MF and Burnt aren't e/e. And the PM logic is a convincing point. I can't find when Doc first revealed who exactly each PM went to, just the initial admission that they can track it. The differential hypothesis is Burnt knew PM claims would happen eventually so she did PM teammates. Maybe she inquired about the rules privately and knew she needed to spend the rupees. Didn't Doc break down the exact numbers in a later round? I'll repeat my blue mask math which is that the odds of there being one elim in Divergent/Doc/Coco/Wonko are at most 50%, two is 25%.

Coloured vote counts: Highlighted: TUM, Ashbringer, Wahr / Greened: Drake, Wonko / Purple: Archer, Araris, Divergent, TJ. (And Stick! Forgot them and edited in the change of colour) L1 Day 2 L1 Day 3 L2 D1: L2 D2: L2 D3: