Rathmaskal

Well, I've not read The Rithmatist yet...but this seems like it could be fun. Sign me up as Notath Reat.

Yes, we had more than one mislynch...I should have clarified what I meant though - with I believe 4 lives remaining amongst the elims, and the rate at which the blight was encroaching, the game was over due to the number of mislynches we'd already had. Yes, I think we could have gotten probably 2 or 3 more turns if people had defended more consistently, but that still would have been a quick game. Basically, the balance between the two teams was effective I think...the blight just encroached a bit too fast (the double escalation was the biggest part of that)

So, I started making this post for the night cycle, but didn't get around to finishing it...let's see if I can get this done today. First off, great job everyone on the Itiah lynch. Looking back at the lynch and how the votes appeared, I would have to say that mine actually looks as one of the more bussy votes... I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the elim team decided to bus the seer here for a couple reasons: At this point, Itiah was already under a decent amount of scrutiny, so it's a good time to bus a teammate at that point. The seer seems like too important a role to bus, but once out of atium, kind of loses their extra usefulness. Depending on who was converted, the seer may be the most useless of the remaining elims. I honestly find this quote from Snipexe kind of odd (and I believe someone else pointed this out as well - ahh, it was Coop, found it): I wasn't basing my vote on Itiah entirely on the previous Snipexe post, but that definitely made me feel a lot better about my vote. I'm not sure if this should clear Snipexe or put him squarely in our crosshairs for the next lynch. I could see arguments for both sides: Snipexe.elim didn't realize how effective the Itiah lynch would be and was trying to deflect votes/suspicion last-minute - this doesn't hold a ton of water, though, since Itiah was already the vote leader and this only pulled two more votes could have set this up with Itiah (possibly with the influence of other elims) to seem more village...not a bad play if so Coop brought this up previously, but worth noting again, this brought the vote to 5-5 - as I mentioned earlier, there wasn't much point in specifically protecting the seer at this point, but that still could have saved Itiah. Snipexe.village playing with imperfect information got lucky on an accusation made with incorrect information Next, I don't think any has mentioned yet that there seems to have been some vote manipulation to put another vote onto Itiah, so it seems likely that the village has at least one vote manip role remaining. At this point, the seeker (assuming just one...if there are multiple, awesome...but I doubt that) should be able to set up a network of trusted players, which is quite good. Next, I'm looking through interactions between Itiah and other players that seem to have anything AI-related: Fura D2 Itiah votes on Alvron D2...not worth looking into Itiah votes on Lumgol D3 - noted as basically random and reason for the next couple votes at least - Itiah later defended the vote a bit. Gancho votes on Itiah D3 CadCom votes on Itiah D3 (following Gancho's lead) Fura votes on Itiah D3 (this is kind of what I was looking for with regards to Fura...not changing viewpoint about Itiah) Itiah is lynched Alvron posts requesting a coinshot hit Itiah after Itiah survives lynch... CadCom follows up with " ^^^^That^^^^ "...Fura follows up with " ^^^^That^^^^ "... Gancho follows up with " ^^^^That^^^^^ " **Note, at this point I'd be willing to commit to the idea that Itiah would not have converted anyone else after getting lynched once, likely due to lack of atium. If Itiah had 4 beads, then this may be incorrect - conversions N1 and N2, lynch D3, conversion N3, lynch D4. If Itiah had 3 beads, then it would have been conversions N1 and N2, lynch D3, lynch D4...so it all kind of depends on how many beads you think were distributed this game...I'm willing to bet 3 though** Gancho votes on Itiah D4 - I'm willing to clear Gancho Alvron votes on Itiah D4 - RIP Lumgol votes on Itiah D4 - might be willing to clear Lumgol...definitely leaning village Snipexe votes on Itiah D4 - analysis above Rath votes on Itiah D4 Fura votes on Itiah D4 - I think I was already willing to clear Fura...although if Itiah had 4 beads...converting Fura N3 would have been a bold play that could have worked out rather well. Overall, with the number of players and the inherent advantage of being able to have elims fly under the radar through the early parts of the game (due to conversion) I'm really expecting there to only be 3 beads. Itiah defends against Snipexe Snipexe switches vote to self - again, analysis above So, from that, I'm willing to at least soft clear Gancho, Lumgol, and Fura...likely CadCom as well. Overall, though, there's not a TON of information between Itiah and other players. So, who doesn't show up at all in that conversation? Araris Mailliw Coop Karnatheon Nohadon Amanuensis Jondesu (although I think I just didn't note a quick post about Itiah mentioning Jondesu...feel free to fact check this) STINK (although I believe STINK has been mostly afk from the site since noting computer problems) OK, and my work computer isn't great...and already crashed on me once in the middle of writing this...so I'm going to post now and continue my thoughts - time to post some suspicions. Also, I'm unlikely to be very active tomorrow through Friday - my parents are coming into town for the rest of the week to visit. Edit: Since no one seems to be browsing right now except Straw I started doing an analysis on Mailliw, specifically with regards to some of the general posts being made about suspicions and such, fully expecting to come away with an airtight case for Mailliw.elim... And I'm coming away with nothing for now. I was specifically looking here for any inconsistencies with noted suspicions or voting patterns that may imply a conversion and here's what I saw on this line of thought: D2: Vote on Rath D3: Suspicion on Araris, Alvron, CadCom, Rath D3: Vote on Araris D3: Switch vote to CadCom (also notes that he? sees the reasoning behind the current lynch train but doesn't want to join - guess I missed this in my Itiah analysis in my last post) N3: Not as suspicious of Rath due to PMs D4: Focusing on inactive players: Stink, Jondesu, Snipexe?, Aman, Karn, Coop; vote on Stink D4: Switch vote to Karn after Fura mentioned that Stink was likely afk due to technical problems D4: Switch vote to self D4: New thoughts for lynch - Jondesu, Snipexe, CadCom, Aman; also notes would be OK with Coop, Nohadon, or Stink D4: Switch vote to Snipexe D5: Assuming I'm interpreting the post correctly, Rath, Snipexe, Jondesue, followed by Karnatheon and Amansuensis with CadCom in question as well The main thing I'm seeing (and probably what brought Mailliw to my attention in the first place) is the inconsistency on me. First gut read, then vote, then not as suspicious, then back near the top of the list. After actually analyzing these posts, though, I'm less convinced - seems like most of us this game where it's tough to nail down suspicions, especially now that we have lynched the only person who was elim from the start.

Thanks Fifth and Elandera for the game. Wish I would have been more active - I did manage to keep my defense actions going, but I was out of town for a decent part of the game (including when I was killed) so darn. I do think this was ever-so-slightly skewed toward the elim team, but it definitely wasn't unwinnable with a completely active player set. (basically, the blight encroachment in this version of the game I believe allowed for one mislynch...tough to win that one) But I believe Fifth already has some ideas on how to tweak the game. Overall, though, great job to the elims. I didn't have a read on CadCom at all...Aman was neutral and Sart...always tough to read a pinch hitter :/

Honestly, I think today is going to be our first really good source of information from voting. Right now, my biggest suspicion is on Maill, just some of the tone of both posts and PMs read off to me. HOWEVER, as much as it seems a bit...odd... to lynch someone just because they survived a lynch, I think I will vote for Itiah. *two ninjas here* OK, I just read the ninjas...Snipexe is staking his life on an Itiah lynch...that makes things interesting and provides Snipexe as an obvious lynch target tomorrow if this lynch doesn't pull through. I'm willing to support this for that reason alone. With 16 players left and the lynch far from certain, Snipexe.seer wouldn't really be in a position to pull this kind of gambit. And worst case here, we lynch Snipexe tomorrow. (This seems a bit too simple, honestly, so I'm starting to second-guess myself)

Hmmm, I see. I'm assuming you're referring to this post? That still seems somewhat ambiguous. Would the edit be 'edit it to say what I said when I clarified' or 'edit it to say what's being interpreted here'?

So, the biggest thing I've picked up on a first read-through of what I missed is that no one seems to be able to to voice any suspicions and no one seems to want to commit a vote to anyone. This is somewhat expected at this point I'd say *ninja Gancho...oh, just announcing the return of Gancho* since with only one elim to start the game, there's not a lot to go off. So, here are a couple thoughts/things I may have found fishy...or in some cases not fishy: I don't think anything can be gained from the D1 voting. There was a random lynch due to a change in rules...but really nothing that seemed to be the seer protecting him/her self. There may be something to be gained from the fact that there was only one vote on all the targets. It may be that the seer also wasn't thinking about the rule...but also that the seer wasn't actually voted on. So, who didn't get voted on day one? Araris Malliw Lumgol Coop Karnatheon Nohadon Amanuensis CadCom Gancho STINK Walin (Someone please verify) - so, I think it's slightly more likely that the seer lies in that group of players. Well, guess it can't be Walin. (strikethrough added) *ninja Malliw* Speaking of Malliw...super tunneled on me right now...not sure why. Would like to get some explanation of this gut feeling so I can respond in turn. (Basically, if I somehow end up getting lynched at some point based on one person's slight gut feeling, something is definitely wrong) I kind of see where you're going here...but that would put the elim at a SIGNIFICANT disadvantage...basically, say you start with 4 beads...then you get lynched...you use one that night but I'd assume the coinshot would hit you that night as well (based on most current playns), so you're down to 1...you're definitely getting lynched the next day if you survive twice like that, so you're now out of beads with only one convert. With 5 beads, the seer would be in slightly better shape being able to get a second conversion in...but still, that's a rough way to go. Maybe you make it long enough into the game where that works, but I wouldn't think that would be a good strategy for an elim in this game. The second part of your quote is an interesting idea - basically don't lynch anyone to force the elim(s) to action. That is a temporary measure at best, but could, I guess, be helpful to basically get this to a more standard game mode. Basically, D1 would have been a good day for a no lynch...D2 not as much so, but still maybe, and from now on, I think we'd only be helping the elim team. I believe Straw clarified that seeks would be after conversions (which is contrary to the original post)...so that information, if valid, would be good for a full cycle Yup, there it is. That's kind of it for now...sorry, not a ton of addition to the conversation, but hopefully this can help spark some conversation. *And just for good measure, another Gancho ninja just as I'm about to submit*

Lord Flamingo strolled back into obligator headquarters. With all the talk about a traitor amongst the obligators, he'd decided to take a brief vacation at his country estates. ~~ Hi everyone, I just got back from a trip to Florida (I'd hoped I'd still be able to be a bit active during the time...but that didn't really happen) Looks like I wasn't killed off during this time, so that's good. I'll try to catch up on the thread as I'm catching up on work.

Where exactly am I throwing doubt on randuir? My post says I'm reading him as village.

But you did say that... Anyway, is randuir hard cleared? Absolutely not. This would be an easy way to get someone to claim being the last non-elim Emond's Fielder so as to create a situation where we lose a powerful role. If it is randuir.elim with one non-elim in the doc, then we regain that role currently if randuir is lynched. If it's randuir.village with one elim in the doc, the elims can still freeze the doc and kill randuir if said elim is lynched at some point. Randuir.village has already given up his identity, so he has no other choice but to keep at it and provide as much information as possible. Randuir.elim would currently be doing the same thing. So, an evaluation of randuir is 100% necessary right now. It was an example as to why I'm now second-guessing my initial suspicions of BR. That comment read extremely village to me. *Note that the quote times are going to be all messed up because, as usual, I was interrupted a lot while working on this post*

Yep, I went the other way with my time conversion this time...thanks. Just to clarify, my last post had this wrong in case anyone was trying to figure out who was correct.

Hmmm, interesting information being brought to light here. A couple things I could see here: Randuir, The Hydra Resurrected, is telling the truth. We have a few reasonable suspects, it seems, to discuss lynching. The elims have realized that they really only need one or two more mislynches, so randuir, The Hydra Resurrected, is lying to force that and gain temporary control of Manetheren (before we'd likely turn the lynch on him tomorrow if we get a serious mislynch here) So, I've played, I think, just two games with randuir, both of which he's been elim...and both he gave off a similar feel. This game actually feels a bit different from randuir, so I'm going to take him at his word for now. Also, if randuir is an elim, this would feel like a really clunky game from someone with his experience. Basically, on a vote analysis, randuir would probably be suspect #1, and that's not a likely sign for randuir.elim in my mind. (I still think we're likely quite close to LYLO btw...so this is a rather important vote) Current votes: Amanuensis (1) - Sart Young Bard (0) - Furamirionind Sart (0) - Furamirionind BrightnessRadiant (3) - randuir, CadCom, Furamirionind First off, we're like 2.5 hours from rollover and only have four votes out of 15 people (5 now with mine). Second, I don't know why, but every time I'm suspicious of someone and they are lynched a few cycles later, I always start second-guessing myself...not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing :/ This kind of gives me pause in particular: This was BR last day cycle as a few people started hopping on the Meta train. My vote is for Furamirionind. I've expressed some doubt in past cycles for Fura as well, but I have a current *ninja Fura...speak of the devil* conspiracy theory that Fura and Cadcom are on the elim team together due to some posting that seems rather coordinated to drive some of these mis-lynches.

Again, I would like to say that I do NOT like the idea of giving up a ring. It allows the secondary of escalation of blight attack to begin that much sooner on later rings. Even if we only save it for one round, it's a useful effort. Besides, if we *let* a ring fall at this point, we're going to lose multiple. Everyone should be defending who can afford to.

I'm kind of on the same page as Jondesu here... No matter what the plan, there will be a way to exploit it as the seer if you know how the plan works.

So, this time I'm not going to be around for rollover (since I'm about to head out the door for a while) so since there actually seem to be a decent number of people on the thread and the two people I've professed suspicions on would just muddy the waters of the existing vote, I'm going to abstain this cycle. I hope to come back to good news in a few hours.

I guess I'm the victim of my normal level of activity this time around :/ (Seeing a lot of calls for me to post more, sorry, it's the holiday season and a busy time at work, so I've been a bit less active than normal - I probably show up as lurking a lot though since I'll start to view the thread then have to go off and do something else...) A couple thoughts though: Was this just from the writeup? *ninja randuir and CadCom* You're saying I'm not including much content in my posts? Mostly just trying to be efficient. As I've mentioned, it's been a slightly busier time for me than normal, so trying to provide thoughts where I can. Also, I often zone out when trying to read giant walls of text, so sometimes I try to be efficient when I have something small to post and not include a giant amount of content just for the sake of it. And sometimes I end up with giant walls of text like this one is turning into (this sentence was added after I finished looking at BR) Haha, actually, I don't think I ever had to learn much about the actual text of the Declaration of Independence when I was in school... I recognized the post for what it was since I do have a general knowledge of it, but I don't think I could recite more than the first line or so. Just as a kind of general statement, I am having a bit of a tough time getting much of a read on anyone partly since I think there's still a lot of people who are still trying to figure out the rules (put me in this camp still as well) I still have a gut feeling about BR...so I'll try to qualify that here: This is a lot of text that seems to say the same thing over and over again... And, actually, that's the main thing other than the retaliation vote on me last cycle, which definitely seemed like grasping for straws - if I had been lynched, I can almost guarantee people would be pushing for a BR lynch this cycle given how that vote came out. I also kind of agree with randuir's comment here: (Does anyone else ever feel like correcting spelling errors when they quote people?) Anyway, I've still got a bit of an elim read on BR...trying to read through sufficient content to see if I find anyone else suspicious. Oh, it seems I missed this comment: I said I was surprised when I saw the cycle closed, yes...I was in the midst of reading through the thread and thought I had an hour left to analyze. MrDoctor has kind of defended me twice in thread now...now sure if that's pocketing or a good read...hoping for the latter for now. Furamirionind (I'm proud to say I can spell that without looking it up now) has been fairly active...this comment here: isn't necessarily untrue...but definitely seems to be trying to prove that he's been an important part of the village effort so far. This one as well: This post concerns me a bit. - Rath: Your gut says village, but you don't think there is evidence for or against? (Not a big deal) - Mark: I don't understand the relevance of this statement. We all want to eliminate the elim's vote manip. This also doesn't give us any insight as to what you think about Mark, which is what you said you were going to do. - BR: You are not sure? Fair enough. However, I would appreciate reasons. You say "Not sure?", not "neutral", so I assume you are confused about something. Implying you have both reasons to think she is an elim, and to think she is a village. What are those reasons? -Karn: What aren't you taking chances about? Does this mean you are planning on voting for Karn's lynch next turn? The is a vague statement, that tells us, imo, even less than your "not sure?" that you had for BR. This is very strange. Edit: I understand this is your second post, and you wanted to post this cycle to keep your spot, that doesn't change how it reads though. Though in my head, I do provide context for these statements. reads a bit odd. Specifically the part I bolded. HH didn't say you'd be getting much insight...just said these were some thoughts. (Italic words in inner quote were excluded from what Fura posted) I'm kind of out of time right now - need to head to a different office for the afternoon - but I'll check in again in a few hours when I'm home (before I have to go to an ultimate game this evening)

Lord Flamingo was still somewhat annoyed that he hadn't been the one to take over the estate of the mighty Lord Heron. How could they pass up such an opportunity? He was the perfect candidate for this. When he was tapped to join the obligators, he was somewhat mollified. At least someone had recognized his greatness. ~~ So, right now, I believe there is one elim...and if we manage to kill said elim, they can survive and look like a thug (or saved by a lurcher if it's via coinshot). I'm not sure if this means we should just keep killing people as we find they survive lynches...has anyone else been through a game like this and is able to weigh in? Also, this is my first conversion game, but it seems obvious that we can't leave anyone as hard cleared past a night cycle. I was about to ask what time zone 6:30 represented, but it looks like that was answered in the game thread - EST. Good to know.

Another quick thought from me... Although I agree that getting information out to the village is good, too many people claiming what doc they are in could actually be detrimental to the village as even if they don't claim, the people in Moiraine's Circle would quickly become apparent. 8 health on the Eye isn't necessarily the MOST important thing for the village to win, but it could end up buying us an extra turn at some point. So, there may be a situation where it makes sense to claim docs, but just make sure you consider the additional consequence if those people are exposed.

I was notified via GM PM.

Count again... One vote (mine) was negated.

20 minutes to go...sorry Snipexe... It would be nice to get one more vote or one off me *ninja BR* (had to verify Aginor's abilities in the rules here as well...hence the longer wait for 7 more words) so that Aginor can't affect the vote. BrightnessRadiant

You can summarize something that occurred in a PM, but you can not quote it.

I just read back and see how that could be misunderstood...they were supposed to be two separate thoughts. At the time I posted, there was still sufficient time for others to join the thread and affect the vote. If two more people had come in at this point and voted for you, suddenly my vote looks pretty good, right? You use the word 'felt' in your response...does 'feel' more accurately represent your feelings since you didn't retract your vote?

I said that I would be best served by voting on one of the other candidates so far...not necessarily that the village would be. I also said I didn't really agree with any of those votes so far and I'd be around to adjust if necessary. Retaliation votes always strike me as rather...sketchy.

OK folks, first off, I'm hoping to be a bit more active starting tomorrow. Weekends in general are just not great for me since I typically am not sitting in front of a computer as much. A couple comments on what I've seen: -I don't see any reason why the elims would want to target Mat (definitely not saying Mat should claim, since I definitely could be wrong here), but the skill of being able to open PMs isn't overly threatening to the elims as far as I can tell. The one thing it does do is provides Mat the ability to claim on a one-by-one basis. So, Mat should end up becoming a fairly trustworthy person here (OK, so maybe that would be a reason to target him as elims...glad I talked through this) -So, despite typically being a math person, I actually haven't gone through and done all the math that other people have done regarding blight turns and how long we have before the game would just automatically end, but because there is a timer and people are thinking that it could be as soon as 8 cycles that the blight fully overtakes the eye, I'm going to just throw out there that I doubt there are 5 elims. We'd almost be at LYLO at this point if that were the case (assuming the other math is correct). *"queue, but an elim would say something like that to make everyone else underestimate the number of elims"* -Some people have talked about letting rings 2 and 3 just fall without a fight...I'm not a big fan of that because of the escalating level of attack from the blight. If we just let multiple levels fall like that, we're going to start escalating faster on the later rings... Yes, I know there are two parts to the escalation - the total cycles and the number of cycles a specific ring has been defended - so I'm specifically talking about that second part of the escalation. -I really don't have any strong reads on anyone at this point... Karnatheon keeps saying things that would be huge red flags to me if they were from a more experienced player...not sure what to think at this point though. A lot of inactivity so far for sure (yes, I know I'm guilty myself) - one of these days we're going to see a game where everyone is active and the thread is going to be flying...that could be a lot of fun. I'm not going to jump on Xino or Ark this game at this point...they always read elim...hopefully some voting patterns pop up that can actually give me some information there. randuir, The Hydra Reincarnated (not The Dragon Reborn) is basically just treading water still...always tough to get an early read on you. Current vote count: Ark (1) - Snipexe Droughtbringer (1) - Furamirionind Rathmaskal (1) - randuir Young Bard (1) - Steeldancer That's tough...I think I'll be best-served by voting on one of these people (obviously not myself)...even though I don't find them to be the best candidates in my mind... So, for now, I'll go with my gut: BrightnessRadiant. I don't have a lot of rationale on that - mostly just a gut read. Edit: I'm going with that vote for now...hoping to be available to change votes for the rest of the evening if necessary.