Rathmaskal
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As night fell, Doma waited. She'd used the day to rest...and plan. The Mist Spirit would be back soon, she was sure of it. The Mist Spirit never left a victim unaccounted for, and Doma had survived for quite some time since the initial attack. She was sure the fact that she'd moved to the city after the attack had confused the spirit for a time, but even more so, she was sure the spirit was confused by how she'd survived the initial attack. What the Mist Spirit didn't know was that she could burn pewter. That's how she'd survived when the Mist Spirit collapsed her house on her entire family, and that's how she'd destroy the Mist Spirit the next time it came back. Doma reached behind her chair and pulled out a new piece of wood to carve. She didn't think about it; in fact, she didn't think about what she was carving most of the time, but she already knew as she picked up the piece of wood what it was going to be. The owl. Clearly the Mist Spirit had sensed her connection with the ivory owl. She could use this one to draw it back in. She knew every line on that owl and could recreate it without thinking. She wasn't sure what her next move was, but she was pretty sure would be able to survive another attack from the spirit. And if she was able to survive, maybe she could kill it as well. And if she couldn't? Well, she could always carve another owl and take another shot. ~~ Btw, I will be rather inactive over the weekend - going to be playing in an ultimate tournament all weekend. Assuming I survive, I'll try to make sure I check in early morning, late evening, but I'll likely have a vote on Sunday morning that I won't have a chance to change.
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Note quite true: That's from the rules page. SO, there's a chance they both die, but there's a chance only one dies. What I'm getting out of this, and I thought it was explained fairly well, is that if there are only 2 elims remaining (3 with Steel obviously) and you know who they are, by lynching Devotary, we're giving the MB a free win. With that, I'm leaving my vote on Stick. Tomorrow I will vote for Devotary. Edit: Oh, for some reason my page didn't refresh to show most of that was responded to. Sorry.
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Sooo, this is a fun conversation. Maill, if you know who the elims are, why did you just post this? Given how adamant you are about knowing who the elims are, I'd think 'suspect' shouldn't be in your vocabulary?
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Don't forget? You mean that?
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So, I'm trying to figure out reasonable ways in which Maill and Stick would know who all of the elims were. Maill, as Vin, has potentially two different ways to get information it looks like. Either rolling Tineye 2 or Seeker 2. With Tineye 2, we can easily see who would have been targetted and information gained: D1 - Steel D2 - Xino D3 - Steel D4 - Devotary Since we know that Steel was elim, Xino wasn't, and Devotary is admitting to it, I don't think this is where the information is coming from. With Seeker 2, it's a bit more complicated because there can't be any definitive information gained. You see what metals targeted a player. I guess if Maill rolled Seeker 2 and correctly targeted whatever elim Conrad was defending on a given night, you could infer that person is likely to be an elim. We're not entirely sure whether or not there is a village Lurcher 2 though...and I don't think that would eliminate the player from being a Lurcher 1. For completeness' sake, I don't see how Vin could have received information from rolling Tineye 1, Lurcher 1, Thug 1, or Smoker 1. Stick, as Zane, I feel could only really gain information from using Seeker 1. I'm not sure how Seeker 1 would show up for the elim kill since it's not explicitly noted as Coinshot 1 like Zane's kill is. And again, to make sure I'm not missing anything, Zane should also have Coinshot 1, Thug 2, Soother 1, Soother 2, and Smoker 2 (A couple of ninjas right now, but it looks like they're on the next page, so I'll look at them after I post) The only other option for them to know is if there's an as-of-yet-unrevealed secret that the MB team has access to that is providing this information. Other than that, just by sharing information, I could definitely see them having a really good idea of who else may be on the elim team, but nothing with the confidence they seem to be displaying. Hopefully I didn't miss anything there.
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Your vote count skipped mine on Stick...unless you know something about someone already planning on doing something to my vote Mildly related, if there's a solid vote on Stick, Lumgol definitely should move your vote elsewhere. If it's a deciding vote, obviously leave it. But Devotary has been thrown out as an option for your read, and I'm throwing my name out there again, especially since my role was brought into question recently. (Actually, thinking about it, of the three, I'm the only one who has clearly demonstrated Thug 2...) So, current vote count: Snipe (0) - Maill Stick (5/6) - Fura, Elandera, HH, Rath, Straw, Lum Devotary (2/3) - Adavantos, Maill, Elandera Not sure where to put @Elandera's vote since I'm not sure if Fifth is requiring a recant to count a new vote. I'm assuming we can count on Stick voting on Devotary, so that puts it at 5/6 to 3/4...so, likely 5-4 at this point. (Assuming either Elandera officially recants the Stick vote or Fifth just allows it) So, the main thing I'm not getting out of this. Stick and Maill claim to be able to kill an elim tonight. To do that there would need to be a couple things happening. Zane (Stick) has to survive - this is definitely possible, but right now is kind of a toss up and may require Zane to use Soother 1. (more on this later) Zane and Vin need to know who the elims are. Based on the kills Zane has submitted so far, I'm not so sure this is the case. Zane doesn't have to use Soother 1 - Zane needs to either hope there are 3 elims and picks the correct one to kill...or picks the correct one to be Conrad to use Soother 2 on and then assassinate one of the others... If there are 2 elims, Zane can't have used Soother 1 during the day to make this happen. SO, if Zane does have to use Soother 1, it's very unlikely Zane is able to get an elim kill off. There would need to be 3 elims, Zane knows all three, and hits the ⅓ roll of getting the kill off. With that, I think it's far more useful for them to just provide the information they have right now. By waiting as long as they have to provide this information, they aren’t allowing us to properly digest and vet the information, which makes it less likely to affect my vote. I'm unsure whether this is a last grasp on trying to stay in the game and potentially win, this is basically knowing that they've lost and trying to decide whether they want to help village or elims more, or they don't know and are just posturing (actually not necessarily different from the first option) *Ninja Devotary*...well then...if there was any beating around the bush with the earlier post, I'd say that's an admission of guilt. Might have to rethink a bit of this, but I've spent SOO long typing it up already.
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Doma had never been bothered by the mists. The mists seemed to accept her. No, not like they accepted the Mistborn, more that the mists just seemed to realize that Doma was there and the mists were there. The very basest definition of acceptance. Most nights, Doma would be sitting by her front window, carving. It didn't matter what she carved, and most of the time it was just scraps of wood, it just mattered that she was carving. Ever since she'd had the accident, carving was all that gave her joy. Occasionally she'd sell some, just to have enough money to buy food. And sometimes she'd give one to an orphan on the street. She'd been up all night working on her current carving. She looked at it closely and realized it was based on the man she'd seen jumping through the city at the start of the night. Well, she wasn't going to finish it this morning. At this point, she typically didn't have quite the attention to detail she did at the start of the night. She started heading to bed, following the ritual she took every morning. Put her newest work on her stool to start on again once she awoke, walk to the hidden compartment she had in the floor where she stored her most treasured items. Pull out the ivory statue her grandmother had given to her many years ago. It had been in her family for generations upon generations and it influenced every one of her works. She'd be carving a small figure of an orphan boy, and when she was finished, there would be an owl stitched to the back of his shirt. She'd be carving a carriage rolling down the lane and it would have owls carved into the sides. It gave her the calm to fall asleep every morning and the drive to continue every night, watching for the Mist Spirit to return to finish the job it had started many years ago, the drive to finally, avenge the death of her husband and child at the hands of the Mist Spirit. How was it that she could be so at peace with the mists, yet the spirit had wronged her so? She reached into the box to grab the statue and felt her heart fall. The statue was gone?! no. No. NO!!!!!! The spirit must have found another way into her home. Finding a way behind her as she watched the door. Stealing the statue to taunt her. She was frantic. She grabbed the carving she had been working on that night and threw it across the room, breaking a number of her recently completed works she had stacked on a shelf. This wasn't over. The Mist Spirit had to die. She had to get the owl back! But how?! ~~ Stick. Good to know that the tunnel on me has not been entirely honest. A bit of analysis besides that. So, the Straw non-kill is interesting. I'm sure most everyone has these possibilities in mind, but I figured I'd recap in case I, or anyone else, is missing anything: Straw is village Coinshot 2 and is safe for pretty much the rest of the game with the assassin dead. Straw is village Thug 2 and is now vulnerable. Straw is either Conrad or another elim trying to get a clear from the night kill. Straw was protected by someone with Thug 1 Honestly, I'd say that these are in order from most-likely to least-likely. So, and I always hate to admit this, I may have been wrong about Straw. The comment from Steel is interesting. So, Steel may have said that or not, since the comment is actually from Joe, right? Joe seems to be working for the village aside from working with Vin. So why would he post something coming from Steel (the one eliminator we've actually lynched)? Either it's just for fun, it's not really from Steel, Steel was somehow able to take over Joe's ability (highly unlikely, but that would be interesting), there's something else going on in the dead doc that's influencing what's posted, Joe forgot that Steel was the one 100% confirmed elim, Joe kind of agrees with it, or something else I'm not thinking of. Regardless, I'm slightly confused by this. The HH comment (the comment by Steel about needing to kill HH...just realized that could have been mildly ambiguous) is almost definitely a ruse of sorts since I think, as long as Fura and Elandera aren't lying, Stick is almost definitely Zane. I'm of a mind to trust them at this point. I think those two and Lum are about as close to confirmed villagers as we have right now. I know we have a lot of time remaining in this cycle, but it seems likely we'll have a strong lynch on Stick today. Does anyone have a suggestion for who Lum should be voting on to get some more information out there? I'm willing to throw my name in the hat.
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Yeah, I guess it's not a great idea to be away for an entire cycle. Sorry about that folks. Looks like you lynched me as punishment. I'll try to get a bit more caught up today. I'm sure there are plenty of things people would like me to respond to.
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Thanks. I'm not going to risk it. Straw Steel Have a fun last hour+ of the cycle!
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Gah, can someone post a vote count? I'm on my way out the door from work. I'll annoy my wife and check in when I get home as well instead of going straight to dinner. It LOOKS like we still have a solid lynch, but I don't want to be the reason that doesn't happen.
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Reasonable, yes. Good, absolutely not. Like I said, the numbers are kind of stupid and made up. The biggest thing I was trying to get across there is that I think there's almost zero chance that Steel is MB, and a non-zero chance he's elim. I could have said 40%/59% and felt the same about the number. Maybe not 49/50. I don't think it's that close. Guarantee? There are no guarantees in life But I plan on being on at the end of my work day (in about 4 hours) (Just got back from lunch a few minutes early so had a chance to check in now as well)
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As usual when I make a huge post...about 126147 ninjas during it...and this one I had to go address a semi-emergency at work in the middle of it...so as I'm reading through the posts that have come in since, I want to note CadCom seems to be on a very similar mindset to me here, but I came up with this independently: Steel: D1 starts a bit of IKYK with the elims. "...If I were the SK, I would be making plans about who I think is suspicious....Obviously it won't be clear cut, because I would always make sure my kills would be on someone I didn't express supicion on publically..." If Zane hadn't already thought about this, he was able to at this point. Might have been better to hold onto this theory until you'd had a chance to use it. Now I could easily see Zane having killed someone he (or she...but since it's a male character I'm going to keep using 'he') had explicitly shown suspicion on during one day. And now I'm getting into an IKYK loop. D1 calls out Araris for saying that elims and mistborn may look the same in thread...mostly defending his decision to focus on the mistborn team. I've been mostly unsure about this strategy throughout much of the game. It would be an easy way for an elim to hide and seem to be working in the village's favor. But, it could also be a villager noticing an inefficiency that could allow the MB team to win - basically, everyone is used to searching for elims and are probably better at it than in finding the MB team. So, it actually kind of makes a bit of sense... N1 notes his vote on Araris was '...a bit of a long shot...' More on this later. N1 throws a will of sorts out in the expectation he'll be targetted by Zane that night. SINCE HE DIDN'T DIE, honestly, I think this is a decent argument that he's NOT on the MB team. Basically, if Steel is Zane (or Vin) obviously he's not going to be killed by the MB team. If Steel isn't Zane or Vin, however, it's really easy for Zane to see this and say, "Hmm, I could leave this guy alive and try to frame him as MB because he didn't die even though he's the only one looking for us." D2 analysis post on who may have killed Bard. At this point, either he's contradicting D1 or he realized he set up the IKYK situation I mentioned earlier. Also ends up voting on Rae here. Side note here. For some reason in the main thread, when I'm on page 13 and try to click on other pages, I can't...but I don't have any other issues. Odd. D2 responds to Rae's defense - this post I'm very OK with. To simplify the exchange, "Hey Rae, I think you might be MB." "I'm not" "Umm, that doesn't work" D2 posts that he doesn't intend to see Rae lynched, but is leaving his vote where it is for now (so, it's been mentioned that Steel didn't actually tell people not to vote on Rae. This post actually kind of does that...) https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85159-long-game-55-disquiet/?do=findComment&comment=870842 D2 notes that he won't be back until after rollover (Important to bring up since this has also been a topic of conversation today and I want to make sure the timeline here is correct) N2 freak out about the Rae lynch N2 back tracks a bit on the freak out part, but remains adamant that it was a bad lynch N2 responds to Stick calling out Steel not moving his vote. I tend to take 'I wasn't around' at face value whenever people say this for the most part... More on this later. N2 notes that xino hasn't registered on his radar. (honestly, I feel like xino is usually like that) Notes me as <reading between the lines> a mid-level possibility for MB. N2 notes that the soothe is possibly more likely to be due to the MB trying to pin MB on Maill than actually Maill actually being MB. Side note. Maill responds with "Steel=Zane confirmed." at this point quoting Steel saying "...it feels like the kind of move I would make..." This may be a harmless joke...but actually I find kind of suspicious. AND ONTO TODAY Vote on me to start the day. Notes that this is heavily influenced by PM suspicions. <reading between the lines> Kind of back tracking on his quest for searching for the MB based on this post. After getting called out for smoking Coop, admits to smoker 1 role and used it to solidify CadCom lynch. Notes Elandera as a top candidate for Zane. Notes that he told Maill who he smoked both cycles. *Elandera calls out Steel for the smoking having happened after Steel said he'd be gone for the day* Steel's response seems like a bit of a backtrack here... Next post seems like an overall defense of all that's been going on. The rest of the posts today have mostly been more of the same. Overall, Steel's, somewhat frantic often, tone actually seems fairly genuine. The biggest thing I think people are looking at right now as seriously suspicious is the fact that Steel was supposed to have been gone but submitted an action during that time but didn't move his vote. His single-minded quest to find the MB is an insteresting choice this game, but I wouldn't consider damning at all. Honestly, here's my thoughts on Steel's chances of being on each team: MB: 1% Elim: 30% Village: 69% (Yes, these percentages are kind of stupid...but I just want to point out that considering Steel as MB seems like huge longshot...but I do think elim.Steel is a reasonable possibility) So, I do think this is a reasonable lynch. If there seems to be the potential for an elim hammer when I am heading out for the day (I will NOT be on around rollover today...and will likely only have about 15 minutes available about 2 hours prior to the end of the cycle...so it will be a quick hop in and vote if necessary) I'll move over to Steel. But if it's a runaway, I won't. (And, with I think Devotary's analysis from yesterday's day end, I think I'm on board for the 'we need at least 6, if not 7 people on a lynch to prevent the hammer' So, basically, if we're under that point, I'll move over. Yes, I'm probably overexplaining here...)
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I guess I'm not intimidating enough? Haha. So, I'm trying to get on the Steel bandwagon, but I'm just not there with everyone else. Honestly, I think Steel has been channeling his RP character a bit too much and the tone has been putting people off as much as anything. (Not actually RPing, but I think you get what I mean.) It's the same reason why I trusted Maill last QF, Steel just seems a bit too...genuine? throughout this game. I'll try to read through Steel's posts (there are quite a few of them) to see if I'm missing something. I'm not expecting this post to change anyone's vote necessarily, more explaining why I'm not on the train at this point since I know people are going to come at me if I'm wrong here since, obviously, I have been active enough to change my vote if I thought it was a valid change.
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I'm still not entirely sure what the suspicion on me is for. So I'm trying to make sure people know where my suspicions lie in the event that I'm lynched (and at that point, it definitely looked like it was going to me...now, not so much...although there's still another day left in this cycle). I believe some people would refer to that as a 'will' of sorts? (I actually really enjoyed keeping up with Fura's championship match and seeing how people from other sites play...that's where I'm pulling that term.)
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Current vote count: Straw (1) - Rath Rath (4) - Steel, Maill, HH, Stick Steel (2) - Elandera, Coop Coop (1) - CadCom Quick observation: it was kind of funny that I voted...then got voted on by Steel...who promptly got voted on by Elandera... Unfortunately the train stopped there...but it was funny while it lasted.
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OK, I know this is kind of a long shot to convince people of my theory, but here's my (admittedly sophomoric) analysis of elim.Straw in said game where I was village: I know we're nowhere near the cycle that game was in at that point, so the vote analysis can't quite match that, but the activity from Straw seems rather similar this game. Again, in that game I hadn't considered Straw as really suspect until I was required to defend myself from the lynch vote again. I may be tunneling a bit at this point, but this is screaming at me this game. If I can't get a Straw lynch going, obviously I'm going to have to go into self-preservation mode later in the cycle. :/ I figured you were claiming village (village...pitchforks...)
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OK, I'll address both of these at once. I believe the only time I've seen Straw as an elim was my first game as SE (LG46). And Straw acted a lot like this - basically being a bit around, but never quite committing to anything. Once I finally cracked that Straw was an elim that game, I was fighting for my life - Straw was the other likely lynch candidate so I actually took a look to see whether or not that was a valid lynch or not.\ Here's a summary of Straw's activity this game: D1 poke vote (On Stick funnily enough. I really, really want someone to start playing SE with the name "Brick"...but I'm sure that joke has already been used in several forms, so I'm not going to push it :P) D1 retract poke vote D1 vote on Araris and rather got that train going - at that point Araris had one vote and wasn't really in danger. After this, Araris obviously ballooned out be lynched. N1 game mechanic question D2 noted mist message D2 asked if Joe's role showed up as Kelsier D2 vote on Coop - doesn't really have any suspicions at this point D2 defends vote on Coop because it would give us a lot of information on Lum and Joe D2 defends against my comment pointing out the lack of content in 'nothing standing out' D2 retracts from Coop *Ends D2 without a vote on anyone* N2 asks about Steel's double post (Coops ninjaed somewhere in there) Basically what I'm getting at is that Straw has been around plenty but refuses to commit to anything other than the original Araris train.
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I'm not sure I see why that's suspicious. I was (I believe) the second-to-last person to post...and I poke-voted the only person who hadn't posted yet. Oh well. For the reasons I brought up yesterday, Straw
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Rath seems like a stand up guy to me. That's a good point. I was only considering the actual vote by Lum, not the Tineye role.
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Given how votes were going, I'd say 1 is much less likely than 2. Maill was never really in danger of being lynched, while Coop definitely was.
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Full vote count: Maill (2) - STINK, Lum Rae (6) - Steel, CadCom, Elandera, xino, Rath, Fura Coop (1) - Lum-, Rath-, CadCom-, Straw CadCom (2) - Maill-, Fura-, Coop, HH Rath (1) - Stick xino (1) - Maill
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6 on Rae, 3 on CadCom
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No longer.
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I'm 100% in favor of a Straw train right now...but I'm not moving my vote at this point unless something is actually going to take off.
