Steeldancer

You're assuming an eliminator put in the kill on Cadmium Compounder. And your claim of action gives us further reason to kill Sart. However Sart flips, it will give us lots of information. If he turns village, it means you are almost definitely village. If he turns elim, you're likely elim, and I'm likely to be village. Even if Sart isn't the top suspicion, I'm pretty sure killing sart will be highly informational.

Ok, looking at Kidpen's stuff, he gave us pretty much nothing. Not real helpful. I'm guessing we started off with 4 elims given 19 players (5 seems a little much for that, and 3 seems to be just too small), so that means given that guess we have 2 more elims left. From the kill on Worldhopper, I'm inclined to think good of the synod (given that worldhopper was acting fairly suspicious), but at the same time, an elim synod member might still exist. I just don't believe that Araris's comment can be used to clear all the members of the synod, and for that reason Phatt is still high on my suspicion list, although they do have in their favor that they admitted to being a synod member, and in general elims tend not to share information with the village (although assuming that is always true has bitten me in the back before *ahem*AG4*ahem* ). I'm not sure what to make of Cadmium Compounder being attacked and then protected. It's probably best not to read into that too much, as that could have resulted from a variety of scenarios. So, now I'm going to conduct analysis! I will post my thoughts as I find them. First thing I notice is that Phatt did vote on Araris day one, and kept the vote on them pretty much the entire day, which is a nice thing. But, that doesn't clear them. The reasoning is really flimsy, and there was probably no real danger for Araris with no real umph behind the vote. The other thing I notice is that Sart's RP thing does make his posts really hard to read (a strategy I myself have employed to some effect before) so I am slightly suspicious of that. Looking at night 1, one thing that sticks out to me is CadComs point that he thinks 2 people are elims within a bunch of individuals that now only me and rand are left in. I know I'm village, so if CadCom was right about 2 elims, then Rand would be the other eliminator. However, that reasoning is super flimsy and obviously doesn't actually indicate that Rand is an elim. But it is possible that that caught elim attention, but they didn't want scrutiny to fall down on it immediately, so they set him lower on their kill list and had one of their members send in a generic kill on him... and as I explain out this scenario it gets flimsier and flimsier. Probably not too likely. Still, it is still possible that Rand is an elim, but I already knew that before this post. Day 2: Once again I note that Araris was the third to vote on Rand in a stream of votes. If they were team mates, that feels like it would be a really really stupid thing to do. But at the same time, Rand probably wasn't in any actual danger of being lynched at that point. So, while it makes me lean village on Rand, I still hesitate to clear Rand entirely. Rand's response to being voted on is pretty calm, but doesn't make me lean towards an elim-village interaction or an elim-elim interaction. However, in Rand's defense, he is constantly suspicious of Kidpen, so I'm going to conclude that he is most likely village. Throwing Kidpen under the bus like that isn't out of the question for an eliminator to do, but it seems more likely to be a village thing. Stick is the first one to vote on Kidpen Day 2, where he doesn't get lynched but that means she is most likely village, especially given how Araris curved the lynch away from kidpen. Also, of the pileup on Snipexe, I'm most suspicious of Xino. Moving on to Night 2, I got nothing cool. Day 3: Ok. So Phatt is the first one to vote on Kidpen, which indicates strongly village, especially as although he goes back to voting on me, he eventually goes back to voting on Kidpen. Now, the weird one is Sart. Sart wasn't really tunneling on Phatt at all, but decides to change his vote to Stick... Yeah I'm suspicious of Sart out of day 3, and am thinking Phatt is likely village, although that does not change the fact that being a synod player does not mean you are cleared. I am actually thinking it is fairly possible that there is another spiked in the synod doc, and we don't know the other two people in there yet, but yeah. Night 3: Nothing really? Although Jondesu posting does make me think that it is probably likely that one of the quieter players is also an elim. Ok, Sart posted before me a while ago, but based on the evidence I have collected, I'm going to vote Sart. We'll see if what sart said will change my mind.

Thanks, you just made me more suspicious of you than I previously was. Also I’ve come to the conclusion that it was Alvron was the one who submitted the kill on Araris, otherwise it would have been claimed by now.

Well this is what I get for tunneling on Phattemer. I honestly didn't even pay attention to Kidpen, so I'll actually have to take a look at what Kidpen was saying. Maybe I'll find more evidence for Phattemer being evil. Who knows. Or maybe I'm just tunneling too much.

Here's the thing. From hard experience, I never assume someone to be confirmed safe. I have witnessed the most stupidly ridiculous things that totally fooled me, and caused me to do devastating damage to the village. So, no. Confirmed safe doesn't exist. There is only those who are less likely to be evil.

saying to be careful is a way to get into the village's good graces. I take nothing for granted, and I'm suspicious of you. Frankly, the number of spiked in the doc doesn't concern me. I just want all the spiked dead, wherever they are. Saying 1-2 doesn't lose him anything even if there is 1-2 or even 3. It didn't work out well for him anyway, but not because of anything related to the synod. Anyway, I gotta go.

I think there might be multiple spiked in the synod. In fact, baseless suspicion but what if all the spiked were in the synod but have less powerful roles? That would be interesting balance wise.

Ok, after looking at araris posts; and not having really paid attention to the longer analyses done on him already, 2 posts stick out. The one where he hops on Rand after I voted early on him in the cycle. I doubt Araris would risk a bandwagon developing on a teammate like that. So, I think Rand is soft cleared (but obviously, never ever trust completely). The second is when Araris asks Alvron and I for reasoning for our votes on Phatt. We had already included our reasoning in our posts, and so it felt like a subtle ploy to keep a bandwagon from forming on Phatt. So, I will be keeping my vote on Phatt.

Just a quick note- the whole reason I’ve been a successful player is because I don’t follow the norms. And it doesn’t always work either. The very game right after I won as a serial killer, I was a serial killer of sorts again, and even though I had allies and played (what I feel) to be some of the most superior playing I’ve ever played, I still got trapped and eliminated. Also, fun fact- I’m better at remaining unsuspicious when I’m evil than when I’m village. Either I figure out a way to get hard cleared, or I eventually get lynched. Which is why I’m still working on my village play style. Of course, I could be saying all this as an elaborate redirection of suspicion, which I have done before (lol), but I’m being genuine. Doesn’t mean you have to believe me, either. Now that I’m finally at a hotel early enough to make use of the WiFi, I’ll do some analysis of my own of araris’s interactions. I must say, I’m glad we got him early on. Araris is like a buttered seal, hard to catch in suspicion, but will happily eat you in turn. Also makes a great ally when he’s village, but I’ve seen him avoid suspicion really well before so pinning him early will be great in the long run.

Well Brandon also has that release at BYU, and you can bet your buttons I’ll be there

Heck yes! Analysis time! I agree with Sart, I’m going after phattemer .

Just popping in to say I’m alive and that I won’t be super active because I’m on the road to college, but I’ll pop in here and here as forementioned when I find decent WiFi.

I get to BYU on the 29th

Didn't I explain my vote in my post? I said I find the reasoning for his vote on me to be suspicious.

I think Jasnah would accept the existence of Adonalsium, but not worship it. God Beyond, Jasnah would probably question.

glares at Extesian Stop taking my motivations!!!

There are certainly things that resonate with LDS beliefs in his books, but I'm pretty sure he won't be as oblique as that. Adonalsium as being an internal result of the spirit realm being a thing, on the other hand, I'm all over.

I said I wouldn't bother to defend myself, but I might as well explain my thought process. My usual play style (which I am trying to curb) tends to include overreacting to suspicions, both as an eliminator and as a villager. That post was me reminding myself that I don't need to be overly defensive, which I was becoming. I have always found it fun that people will lynch me happily for being over defensive and for deliberately not being over defensive, though. It's really not a tell, its me trying to reform my playstyle, and I view it as something I could truthfully post as either elim or village. Anyway, new update on my suspicions. I'm not sure I like phatteners vote on me, a common eliminator ploy to talk a lot without saying much? Especially paired with them being one of the last to vote on the Itiah bandwagon, I can easily see it as an elim ploy to get me lynched, because I am admittedly one of the more suspicious individuals right now. So, Rand and Araris have been moved down the suspicion ladder, and I'm going to vote on Phattemer. Also, ninjad by Araris.

Lol that was hilarious to watch. We were unabashadly rooting for you by the end hah.

Also, as a note to new players, we tend to try and let new players live for at least a few cycles before we go after them.

Um, ok why did two more people vote on Rand? Araris, could you explain your vote? Um, I’m afraid I don’t have much of an explanation for why I find you a bit suspicious? Just this uncomfortable feeling about you in my gut. I would prefer to vote on someone I have a harder reason to vote on, though. So I’ll change my vote Rand Araris . Not sure I like how you just followed me on Rand for no reason. I was hoping for alternate Lynch targets, not a following of votes.

A- Why did we have to kill the steelrunner? I have a thing for steelrunners, no particular reason why. In all seriousness though, this means there easily could have been eliminators on both votes day one. They wouldn't have cared, so I'm going to go back and see if there was anyone who subtly redirected the lynch away from anyone else. B- Fantastic, the spiked managed to kill a really good role. That has to be luck, I assume, unless I'm forgetting about a scan ability that would have been able to be used before the kill would be submitted. Right now, my only read that I have to report on is an elim gut read on Rand. Not because of his suspicion on me, I honestly didn't even notice that at first. This is based on nothing solid, so I'll likely change my mind later. Despite that, I'll start with Rand to get things moving. Oh, and I'm disappointed no one opened any PMs.

I think docs are great. Great for rambling about how you're going to murder everyone in. And no one can see your rambling. It also allows for potential anonymity, in cases where games utilize that. Furthermore, it allows for more text options, like making tables and stuff, which are quite useful.

Heh why am I even bothering to defend myself? If I'm an eliminator, and on Itiahs team like Rand thinks, then it doesn't matter what I say, my goal was to save itiah. If I'm villager, I'm telling the truth about my motives and shouldn't feel obliged to explain them anymore. Typical of me, constantly overexplaining myself. 72 hours? That will mean I'll probably be on my trip to college when the cycle ends. Please note when I'm driving, I'll only be able to get on sporadically where there's actually decent data/wifi in the middle of nowhere.

Honestly, I didn’t take Coops claim seriously. I saw it as possibly an elim trying to make a last ditch claim, but as mentioned in the very post where I voted, I was concerned that he was legitimately an important role at the same time that I was suspicious. This is why I hate voting at the end of cycles, it always ends up looking suspicious, because generally you’re basing it on previous analysis versus doing it yourself. Or you can just not vote, which I also hate because that encourages passivity. Conclusion- reading WoT all day is great, as long as you remember to vote before the last hour.