DeTess

You're right, I missed that one in my count. Thanks for the correction!

So, unless I miscounted, that leaves just devotion and Honor in containment. The only thing I've got to say about our new releases is that Dominion is pretty nice for a coordinated elim team, as it's just extremely versatile. If I had been on team Hoid, I'd probably have prioritized this one. Also, Braize exploded. If Ruin is taking requests, I'd like to see Taldain explode next or see Ruin be put back into containment, that's fine too. In fact, I'd probably prefer Ruin to get put back into containment or passed around for a bit of timer-reset, but I realize that might be a vain hope at this time. Anyway, let's start my player-by-player analysis, starting with: Young Bard Starts by claiming that he's almost sure someone was lying, which is just a general odd thing to say if you're not going to explain it. He's also focused a lot on the 17th's sudden death condition, but I wouldn't say that its harmful for the village, even if the past couple of cycles have proven this win-condition to be pretty unworkable at this stage. There's one thing I'd like to ask him about (@Young Bard): His comment at the start of the cycle about nothing having changed was your stated main reason to suspect him. How does him being Khriss in the Timeline-0 change this statement in a way that makes it less suspicious? I'm not really seeing how it makes it an less suspicious. Overall, Young bard has been an active participant in discussion, and hasn't been afraid to push less popular plans. He doesn't seem to want to lie low, so I'm leaning village on him right now. Eternum Eternum has posted once to apologize for being inactive. @Eternum, could you join us again? Steeldancer Steeldancer said it better himself: I'd appreciate it if you could fix this, but I can understand wanting to focus on RP as well (it's what I tried to do in AG4). If possible, try to find a good balance. That having been said, Steeldancer did continue this particular post with a vote on Pyro, while trying to distance himself as far as possible form that vote at the same time, which is somewhat suspicious, I think. If you're spending more words on explaining why you don't want to vote on someone, then on why you do, then you shouldn't vote on that person. There's also the claim that he forgot to submit an action N0 (or did he ), which is just weird. It's probably something elim!steeldancer might have avoided saying just because it attracts the wrong kind of attention though. Jondesu Jondesu seems to be more passive than I've seen him in previous games, but he acknowledges this himself as well, which is either a clever bit of lampshade hanging (warning, tvtropes link) from elim!jondesu, or it's just village!jondesu acknowledging he's playing differently. Right now I see no way to tell the difference. His explanation for why he voted for 'no lynch' is passable, I think. it's quite possible he might have missed that the elim team could already have converted, thopugh I do remember pepople talking about this in thread. Overall, I've got no real read on him.

For example: No explanation for the vote apart from you apparently finding him suspicious somehow. I'm certain you not explaining a vote has resulted in me listing you as suspicious before. I'm also fairly certain I've helped lynch you for that reason before. I am certain that you flipped village just about every time I helped lynch you, so I know that I shouldn't be putting too much stock in my suspicion of you based on things like this. Right, I forgot about that one. Thanks for reminding me.

Actually, neither of them have to double tap him, as both of them can by-pass shardic protection with their kill.

To represent an (in hindsight unnecessary) 'that'.

Well, it would give their presence away, but cultivation's release will be announced anyway. If I'm not mistaken, Cultivation doesn't have to be in the PM's she creates, so she wouldn't really give anything away apart from her creation of that particular PM.

I don't think a massed run on Cultivation is a good idea, because it means a lot of villagers will end up wasting their action. It does increase the chances of it ending up in the hands of a villager instead of an eliminator, but since it only improves the odds, and not eliminates the chance I'm not sure how useful it will be from an analysis standpoint(since Cultivation can be both village or elim, holding cultivation is NAI, irrespective of the odds involved). That having been said, I do think it would be a good idea for cultivation to get broken out, and in particular for her to end in the hands of a player that does a lot with PM's. Also, from your second sentence it seems you're suggesting that whoever holds cultivation claims? Because that seems counterproductive, as that means that odium can easily shatter her next cycle if he wants to do that. And if he has no interest in shattering cultivation then breaking her out would not be a priority in the first place.

I'm going to start by looking at the lynch candidates. Everyone else will probably follow If I'm still alive next cycle(feel free to call me out if no further analysis on the others is forthcoming next cycle). Hemalurgic Headshot A number of the comments he's made seem almost like that of a spectator or annoucner, rather than a player. For example: If Survival hadn't already been claimed by Pyro, I'd suspect HH of being Survival and already having been taken by the win condition, just because his position seems to be that of an outsider to the main factions. It has been mentioned before that him starting a discussion on a D1 lynch is a very safe thing to do, but I'd like to point out that he never actually took a position on whether we should lynch. he just presented the likely number involved, but as far as I could see never stated whether he felt like lynching someone was a good idea. I'm fairly certain this means something, I'm just not sure what it means. It's such a 'safe' thing to do that it almost seems like it's meant to intentionally stand out in its safeness. I'd expect an elim to at least participate in his own bit of discussion, but going that route is IKYK. I don't really know what to think of HH here. I doubt he'd do what he did if he was Khriss or Hoid, but that doesn't mean he's not some kind of non-village entity. Arinian Arinian hasn't really said anything that stood out to me yet. He's done a bit of RP and a bit of light analysis. I don't agree with his decision to vote for 'no lynch', but I wouldn't lynch him over it, and it strikes me as somewhat odd that others did find it enough of a reason. Fifth Scholar This is the second game in a row in which he tried to play the sacrificial lamb. It probably wasn't done with the intent of earning himself trust, but since it worked for him last time, I can't completely rule out him doing it as an elim to earn trust. As for the rest of his posts, he seems to be making a lot of strong assumptions about what the various vessels and elims will and have done, which I find odd. His suggestion are certainly possible and even reasonable courses of action, but I don't think they are the only possibilities. his dismissal of the vigilante role also strikes me as somewhat odd, as it's generally considered one of the best village roles, but it wasn't that usefull or the village in the other game he was in, so I can understand that stance. He also invoked the IKYK around him being or not being Odium, but going deeper in that will just lead down a a rabbit hole leading to IKYKTIKYKIKYKIKYK. Overall, I have a very slight village lean on him for his attempted self-sacrifice, but it's very small. TheYoungPyromancer He claimed Survival. I have no reason not to believe him. Unless survival ends up in containment at the end of this cycle though, I think it's safe to say that pyro is a neutral entity, and not village. livinglegend Legend's first day post attracted my attention for the same reason as megasif, but since he did promise further input, I let it slide. He did provide some further thoughts, and tried to get a lynch going int eh closing minutes of the game. His casual mention of having a village gut read on Arinian where he usually doesn't have such a read on him at all strikes me as genuine, and would be indicative of him likely being village, as gut reads are something that (in my experience) are more difficult to have if you're an elim. Village lean. Sart He made a good point about the dangers of going on the Scholar wagon (which means that if either Sart or scholar ends up being evil, the other one needs to be looked at). I missed the discussion about how breaking silverlight helped Khriss though. @Straw, could you point me at that discussion? Overall I've got nothing but a big *shrug* regarding his alignment. Straw Seems to be doing Straw things, which somehow always make me suspicious. Maybe this game that suspicion will be right for a change.

When I said: I didn't mean to say "please add another five pages while I'm asleep". More thoughts to come once I'm fully caught up again.

Hey Guys, I'm back! I'm also very tired, and this is quite a bit of thread to go through. There's a couple of posts I want to comment on right now, but I don't have enough time to form solid enough reads to start voting this cycle. Why? and why? I've seen two people admit to taking from Odium, so there only has to be one more for Odium to be released, so there's no indication of a massed rush on Odium. And why would Khriss be more likely to take from Ruin in particular instead of Odium? I wasn't aware Odium's win-con was already known. Though it's reasonable to assume that Odium could be some kind of serial-killer, he could also just have orders to shatter all Shards, which is a win-con that is compatible with any of the other factions. Now, people have also talked about Odium shattering cultivation, and Ruin breaking Silverlight as if these where bad outcomes. First of all, the village is the only faction with a sudden-death win-con that can be completed while any or all shards are shattered. Secondly, forcing everyone out of Silverlight will actually improve communication, as it means the world-docs will all start seeing use. It will also become easier to determine who might have taken a Shard, though that's a very double-edge sword. The down-side to these two actions is that the shard-holder risk getting taken over by their win-con, which might be bad for the village.

Ah, thanks for the clarification @_Stick_. @Drake Marshall, where you Hoid or Khrissala in the last time-line? I believe most people where working under the assumption that Hoid and Khriss only had a couple of conversions, and would have to try and win the game the usual way (I know I was), so you refuting this by stating that there probably wouldn't be a lot of kills because it's a conversion game strikes me as odd. I know your past alignment is no indication of your current one, I just want to know whether I should be giving myself a cookie for spotting this or not.

Yeah, I'm not opposed to lots of PM's, but some kind of formalized PM-circle probably won't be of much help. It's true that many people are more talkative and open in PM's (and PM's tend to switch my read of someone to village if it's quite active unless I actively keep myself wary and paranoid). However, this is only true if they pick the people to talk with themselves. If it's something that was forced on you by your position in the PM-circle, its probably wouldn't be nearly as conductive for talking. It's also worth noting that PM's (in my experience) are a completely impartial tool. They can help villagers hold others accountable, but it also gives elims another tool for info gathering and manipulation that's harder for the village to track. @Seonid, can you tell us how (un)anonymous world Docs are? Is someone's name automatically added on entering, or do they only have to identify themselves when they start to talk, allowing for Lurking? Or are they completely anonymous?

To give the short version, Elbereth had made the spread-sheet for processing and recording actions, but due to a permission goof she accidentally got to see the spreadsheet in use once the game started, which meant she probably saw a lot of alignement and orders and stuff. This could have been solved by either her dropping out, or us starting over again with new RNG. The second option was chosen, which is fine by me. Here's the link to all my relevant posts from last time-line. My opinions remain unchanged despite the time-line reshuffle. I'm not sure if I've got anything else to add for this cycle, and I'll still be gone during the weekend, which now means I'll miss most of D1.

Yep, that clears everything up (for me and for now, at least :P).

It's is a very nice write-up. Should we be reading more into the text to get hints about who (and what faction) currently has a shard, or not? The final line seems to imply one of the two factions might have gotten the Shard, but it also might just be nice fluff, and I'd like to know which of the two it is. Also, to echo and expand on a question asked before, what exactly is the order of actions during the night cycle? Say someone manages to get a Shard, is attacked once (and wouldn't have an extra life apart from vessel protection) and is recruited by both factions that we know of, all in the same night cycle. What would happen?

Okay, since kills failed by targeting do consume investiture, we probably shouldn't keep an up-to-date world roll-call, as that makes the job of the elims far easier. That doesn't mean we shouldn't use that information after something has happened. If a pretty-much confirmed villager dies it should be possible to narrow down who could have targeted them.

@Seonid, what happens if someone targets someone on a different world with an investiture based action that can't target someone on another world? Does the action simply fail to go through, or is the investiture lost?

The elim team could pass the shard around, keeping the 'take-over timer' down. You're right about mentioning the risk of Ambition taking over its user if we take it out early and use it a lot though, and I hand't considered that risk yet. I still believe that it's worth it to get it out to deny the elim factions the use of Ambition's investiture, even if the one getting it then proceeds to sit on it and do nothing with the power afterwards. I don't agree with the idea to go for the sudden death win-con in the early game because one Shard is already loose, and I suspect (though I could very well be wrong) that some incentive is in place for its current holder to not just put it back, just to make it difficult for the village to luck out and win on turn 1. @Orlok Tsubodai, I will of course be sharing any suspicions I get once they're past the 'gut-feeling' stage. I didn't make as strong a case for information security as I have in the past because I've seen in recent games some decent arguments for the other side of this discussion. I'm still of the opinion that information should be kept secure and shared sparingly, but I also acknowledged that there are moments and situations when it's better to have a bunch of information out in the open.

Okay, I've gone through the rules, and there might be one shard that the village would benefit from freeing above all others, being Ambition. There are two reasons for this: first of all, the investiture from ambition is very useful to the two elim factions, as it allows them to set up hammer turns with lots of kills, or double the amount of investiture they drain from a single shard to increase their chances of freeing and getting it. Getting ambition out of containment will stop them from being able to harvest her investiture. The second reason is the Shardic power itself. Allowing people that have died, and have been confirmed good, to affect the living once more can be very useful. It's not as useful in this regard as endowments power which resurrects them, but it also doesn't carry the risk of the newly returned player getting converted. If someone with a bit of Odium dies and gets turned into a Shade, it effectively gives the dead-doc as a whole a kill, which can be game-changing if employed wisely and at the right moment. *** "As I told you, doctor, Entropy is a universal force, and survival breaking free only proves how foolish we are to try and impose order on powers like the shards. We are trying to play god, but the very laws of the universe are conspiring against our attempts to order powers whose very nature forces them towards chaos." Met was paying a weekly visit to one of the 17th's psychologists. The 17th Shard pretty much mandated that for those that had been working with the most volatile shards, and Met had been part of a project surrounding Ruin that had nearly led to a containment breach. "So, you're saying that our current system here is doomed to fall to Ruin?" The doctor asked, the question almost sounding like a statement of fact. "Those are your words, Doctor, not mine." The question annoyed Met. A lot of people seemed to think that the accident had resulted in Ruin affecting Met somehow, but that was nonsense. The accident had provided a new perspective, but in the way any traumatic experience could. The involvement of the Shard was unimportant. "But I do think our current system is prone to failure. If it was perfect, Survival would still have been in containment, and there would have been no need for these sessions." "And do you have a solution for this perceived problem?" She actually sounded somewhat curious now. "If I did, I'd be busy working it out, not talking about the meaning of life and my feelings and the like up here. No offense meant, Doctor, but I'm not sure how useful these sessions are. It's already been established that no investiture crossed over during the incident, so I'm free of any Shardic influence. I'm fine, and should be allowed to return to working on bigger projects as soon as possible. "It's true that you're free of any outside influences." The doctor checked a pocket-watch. "We'll have to continue this next week. "If possible, in addition to keeping a daily log, could you write a bit on how the incident affected your outlook on the work we do here, and your place in it? That might help me make a final evaluation and allow you to join some of our more ambitious projects again." Met sighed. The doctor always promised that doing just the one thing extra would help her wipe the slate clean, but it never seemed enough. still, there was nothing to be gained, and a lot to be lost by disobeying her. "Yes ma'am. Same time next week, I assume?"

What makes you think that? To meit seemed like there where some small teams of both the non-17th shard factions already in place. On a re-read I see nothing confirming this, but also nothing pointing to only Hoid and Khriss being in play for their respective factions. I'm not sure if this is a good idea. Knowing which people have taken from which shard is potentially very useful information, both for the village and the elims. I'm personally of the opinion that we should be working to contain information away from the elims, but I also understand that the downsides of this might be outweighed by having more village access to information. If lots of people do decide to declare which investiture they are taking, I will do the same of course, as this is the kind of tactic that really needs an all-or-nothing approach. Either everyone shares so we get all the benefits, or no one does to deny the elims the benefit of knowing this info. If we go somewhere in between the village won't have enough information for analysis, while the elims will still be able to predict the actions of a number of players. I might have some more thoughts on the rules and mechanics later. Lastly, I won't be online during the weekend (so most of Day 1 and the beginning of Night 1). After that it should be business as usual for me.

Pyromancer is obviously Arraenae pretending to be Meta pretending to be Young Bard pretending to be Alvron. Did you guys learn nothing from AG4?

There was a game a while back in which being converted would cost you your role, and several people had a way for them using their role to be verified. When one of them got converted, he got lynched the next cycle because that verification failed. I see your point, btw. I'm often one of the people who looks for ways to use the rules to the factions advantage, but I understand why it's probably a bad thing to expect everyone to set-up an anti-conversion safeguard, and I might not do so myself either.

Well done elim team, especially to Devotary who only just registered on my radar, and Ecth, who managed to remain well below it. Also well done to Drought, for his fantastic manipulation and trolling over in the dead doc, and Joe managed to sound very village in the end (especially because it had been a communication goof-up that had outed him, ad not actual elim-intent). I also wanted to give a shout-out to Len, who managed to figure Drought out just in time (or 2 cycles to late. One of those two).

I'll definitely sign up for this one. I'll be Met.