DeTess

I guess I can see that, but then why redirect to the fairly obvious target? Also, two group PM's have been created, called Yellow PM and Submarine PM. Yellow PM contains Arinian, Stick, Randuir, Magestar and Drake Marshall. Submarine PM contains Stick, Elbereth, Shanerockes*, Joe, Devotary and Randuir. I've got a bit of a theory about these PM's, which I'll share below. Note that this is based on a number of assumptions, so should be taken with a big does of salt. First the assumptions: Cultivation created these two PM's with a reason, which is not 'because I can'. Cultivation does not want to make it easy for us to figure out who she is. From assumption #1 follows that cultivation wants to know what happens in the PM's. The first way to do so would be to just include herself in the PM's. Both myself and stick are included in both PM's, which I think is one person too few for cultivation to have included herself. I think this is the case because of she'd included only one other person in both PM's, it would be easy for that other person to pinpoint her. If I wanted to watch both PM's in person, I'd include at lest two other people in both PM's. The other option is that she has someone else watch (one of) the PM's. However, unless Cultivation already had a PM with someone they trust a lot(and there is at most one other fully village PM out there apart from Joe/Orlok - Elbereth), the only way for this to be the case would be if cultivation is held by an elim, giving her team-mates to rely upon. I think we're dealing with the second option. This means that there's likely an elim in each PM. I suspect me and stick had been included in both PM's to act as attractors for suspicion of us being cultivation, so that means the elims would be among the others. If I'm right, there would be one elim among magestar, Drake and Arinian, and another among Elbereth, Shanerockes, Joe and Devotary. Of course, this isn't a particularly solid theory right now. it's build on a number of assumptions which seem reasonable to me, but there's no guarantee that they are true. As the game progresses it might be worth it to keep an eye on these two lists of people though, especially if other things happen that seem to support the elim!cultivation theory. That's all I've got to add right now. I'll finish my people-analysis by going over Elbereth's posts soon, and post a vote closer to the end of the day. Ninja'd by pyro, and I do actually have something to say about that. That wasn't my action that got redirected. Given only Ruin's investiture and autonomy's vessel get roleblocks, I assume you are on a planet with an aspect? If you aren't, then that has some interesting consequences. *who, btw, has mentioned in the PM that his inactivity was caused by a busy last week of school/ hopefully that means he'll be back soon.

Welp, if anyone was hoping Dominion would be put back, I think you can forget about that. I just got my action redirected towards pyro. As I can't think of any indication I might have given that I had something to kill pyro with, I'm assuming the goal of this was to just mess around with powers to flip to the alternate win-con. I suspect the same thing goes for odium beginning to kill. What's noteworthy is that Ruin did not blow up another planet. This either suggests that he isn't planning on obtaining the win-con, or that he was on a planet with one other person, and realized that blowing up that planet would be too conspicuous. Stick summed it up best, I think. and Straw's rebuttal and stick's response (my own response is two posts above that one). Edit: because of the actions of Ruin I mentioned above, i wonder if it's a good idea to ask for people to report if they where one a planet with only one other person. This narrows the suspects down, but it does so publicly, which would also help the elims and maybe Odium. However, Ruin does have a kill, so if they want to become hard tot rack, they could kill the guy they shared a planet with first to cover his/her tracks. This is all assuming that the presence of a watcher was Ruin's reason for abstaining from planeticide, which is not guaranteed.

Just why exactly are you annoyed at Hoid though? Contacting you would force him to reveal his identity to you, and apparently he should consider you an opponent as you have trouble winning together, so why take that risk of contacting you at all? What would Hoid gain by doing so? And if Hoid has nothing to gain, why are you annoyed that he plays to his win-con? I'm sorry, Pyro, but I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out your motivations and goals here. I wish you weren't a new players, as otherwise I'd have some previous games to look back on to try and judge what exactly you're playing at here. In other news, I'm going to repeat the call for @shanerockes to join us again. If Cultivation doesn't have other important thing to do with his/her PM's, could you maybe set me up with a PM with him? That way I could try to encourage him to join us again. lastly, the only players I haven't mentioned in one way or another are Sart, Elbereth and Drake. Unfortunately it's closing on midnight here, so I won't go over Elbereth's posts yet. I should have time for Drake and Sart though. Sart Sart has proposed a couple of plans for solving various parts of the game, which is good and makes me lean village on him. It's noteworthy that he apparently didn't realize you wouldn't get investiture if you take from a shard breaking free, but I don't think that's particularly alignment indicative. There's one thing that stood out to me, but it's relatively minor. @Sart, I might have missed it, but I don't think the thread ever reached that conclusion. I myself pointed out that losing silverlight would be a double-edged sword, with advantages for both the elims and the players, for example, and I haven't seen a consensus one way or another. Overall I'm leaning slightly village on Sart. Drake Marshall I'm unsure about Drake. He seems a bit more reactive than proactive in his posts. He provides reads on active people and responses on events in the game, but they seem to be mostly focused on mentioning what has happened, without providing solutions. I'm not sure how alignment indicative this is, as its something that goes for more people than just Drake, but I've also seen quite a few players share plans for solving (parts of) the game. He mentioned that he's curious about Ruin's blowing up Braize, while before he responded with "I like how you are thinking." to Straw suggesting that course of action for Ruin. I'm not sure what this means, but it makes me wonder if maybe (and this is a fairly unlikely maybe) Drake is Ruin, and made that post as a distancing attempt, forgetting about his earlier response to Straw. None of this points to him being an elim. I don't have a smoking gun to point to like I did in Timeline-0. However, it does make me somewhat uneasy about Drake. Neutral read.

Fair enough. I thought your statement of ambition being evil was made with more surety then was actually the case. I don't think ambition's vote manipulation is the biggest threat right now, but if it's being held by an elim then it means that an elim that died could get all of his remaining investiture actions back. Since Odium got broken out N0 there wouldn't be that many kills to go around, but it could be problematic if we manage to lynch Hoid, and he gets turned into a shade, allowing him to make use of any of his remaining investiture. It basically means that once elims start to die, we should keep in mind that they might still get actions to influence what happens in the thread.

Right, but what makes the ambition holder more of an elim than any of those who voted on Straw the old-fashioned way? I think we can agree that not everyone who voted on Straw could be an elim, so why would ambition be more likely to be an elim than any of the others?

Can you explain this a bit more? I know you said last cycle that you thought both straw and pyro are elims, but I'm not sure how it follows from that that ambition is also an elim. I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion. In fact, I mentioned all the way at the start that ambition has investiture that's important to the elims, so it could quite possibly be that the shard is currently held by one. I'm just not sure I see how you take that conclusion from the vote on Straw.

Are you still on Scadrial? If not, since autonomy has two actions, could he have worldhopped to scadrial and planted an aspect in the same turn? Edit: also, get well soon Orlok!

Actually, given all the doubt that was there about his claim, I'd say that we've definitely learned something, namely that he's either survival, or a primary target. If he isn't survival, then the actual survival could start deciding whether to work to get rid of him. This lynch (once again) didn't end with a death, but it did result in us confirming Pyro's story at least partly. Did we learn as much as we could have from a straw lynch? Maybe, maybe not. Lynching Straw would definitely have been more informative if he'd been an elim, but I don't think we'd have learnt more than we did this cycle if he'd been village. If Survival loses their extra life during the day, can they burn a piece of preservation to get another life during the night?

After consideration, I've decided to switch my vote from straw to pyro. The longer I think about it, the less pyro's stated actions seem to match his stated win-con. Taking form Autonomy I can understand if he wanted a way to find Odium if Odium went on a shard-killing rampage, but taking investiture from Odium himself just doesn't match up, as it icnreases the chance of Odium getting out early and isn't of that much use if your win-con is surviving, as the major threats towards you need multiple kills to go down, while a single lynch will fix the issue (which is what the autonomy investiture is for).

Well, the two Shards he chose where the safe picks, as no one can disprove he took from them. If he'd mentioned an unreleased shard, and two other people claimed to have also taken from that shard then he'd be in trouble. You make a good point about him taking from Odium though, as it doesn't make sense. It would serve his win-con for both Odium and Ruin to remain contained, so why risk breaking any of the two free? I'm going to be logging off for the rest of the cycle soon-ish, and will re-evaluate my vote on Straw before that, as I might switch to Pyro.

This isn't really a point in favor of not lynching you. The information that we'd gain is pretty much the same information that would be gotten from lynching anyone else that has been somewhat active. Most information comes from who decided to vote on you and why, while analysis of your posts after you died might show something new in light of your confirmed alignment. No clear lines in the sand have been drawn yet, but if you've got a suggestion for someone we could lynch that would provide significantly more information than lynching you, I'm all ears. I mentioned that that was a possible explanation for you changing your mind. when I voted on you. It's also a possible excuse if you had other reasons to do what you did. This seems like justification after the fact. I also don't see why you'd extort information about mage's action (which can be rather valuable to both village and elims) if you weren't that suspicious of mage. I'm not dead-set on lynching you, straw, but I'm also short on alternatives.

My reasons where basically that I agreed with Stick. You're right that I didn't add anything of my own, but I think she covered most of the things worth mentioning.

I'm not so certain. As I mentioned before, a lynch on Hoid would result in him absorbing the hit using preservation's investiture, and so would be a perfect opportunity for some bussing. If pyro's Khriss/ a convert, and has some preservation, then the same case applies. If Pyro isn't survival, and doesn't have a way to protect himself then the above does apply, of course. That is the one thing that makes me somewhat wary of the lynch. The case as a whole seems reasonably solid to me, but we have a tendency to lynch straw early in many of the games in which he plays. The only option I'm really seeing right now apart from him is Pyro, but that's not really optimal either.

The one problem I have with this analysis is that fusing shards would make it impossible for him to return all of them to the original owners, and he'd get called out by whoever didn't get the shard back, likely resulting in either a lynch or offensive actions taken against him.

@Seonid, does the player starting with survival start with survival's win-con? And can you give an indication of how many shard-related actions need to be taken before someone gets overwhelmed by shardic intent?

Well, if you're going to summarize it like that... It could be that Straw just changed his mind about how useful autonomy would be to the village, but this also looks like a (barely, but this is C2 with no deaths yet) decent enough case to lynch on. Let me quickly go through your posts against to see if I wouldn't rather lynch you, _stick_ . ***Soothing music plays while I read through stick's many posts *** Hah, I've got you now, Stick! Or should I say Khrissala? If you actually are Khrissala, I really hope that remark gave you a fright Clearly this is you admitting guilt as you've followed up this post by doing exactly what you describe elim!stick would do if they'd seek to lynch someone! Okay, in all seriousness though, apart from the post Elbereth already highlighted, I haven't seen anything that makes me suspicious of stick. She expressed suspicion of Straw before, so this condemnation isn't coming out of nowhere, and I don't think the voting is at a point where an elim would feel like interfering and attempting to lead a lynch. I'll vote Straw.

The shardic protection won't save you from the lynch, though Survival's ability will protect someone. Since preservation got released today, there are at most three charges of preservation going around (2 from N0+ hoid's charge). I don't know how many people are on Scadrial, but only people that got a charge during N0 can be in place to make use of it. 4 shards got released today, and we know Ruin wasn't in silverlight, so at least half the players aren't on Scadrial. Any number of the remainder might not have a charge to spare for an extra life. That means that, even though there's a lot of protection going around, it's hardly perfect coverage.

Megasif, from this post:

There's two possible outcomes to lynching pyro as far as I can see. Either he dies, proving that he's not Surival, or he lives. Living doesn't prove anything, however, as Hoid started the game with a charge of preservation, and Khriss could have stolen a charge turn 1 (unless, @Seonid, there's difference in write-up between survival's extra life and one gained from preservation's investiture). I'm not wholly opposed to lynching him to check, but if he's not survival, there's a decent chance he's got some of preservation's investiture to keep him alive anyway.

I know you (claimed you) didn't get ambition, but they wouldn't have been able to convert you afterwards if you did. If they guessed correctly that you where going to use that bit if ambition's investiture to get two actions to increase your chances to get a shard, converting you last cycle would have made sense, as the conversion would hit you could get a shard, meaning it wouldn't get blocked, while still giving them a chance of recruiting a Shard. Given that you did attract some negative attention before that I don't think you're any more likely to be converted than the people I put on the list.

I know that I'd said I'd create a short-list of the people I'd convert if I was an elim this game, but after a first attempt at that list it contained about half the players. I've put it int eh spoiler tag, but it's not much use until I can narrow it down more. I'm going to continue working down the list of people. Next up would be Orlok, but I'm going to skip him for now. I've established before that I'm very bad at reading him, and he talks enough that creating that bad read is going to take a decent chunk of time. I'll get to him once I'm done with the rest. Speaking of someone talking a lot, let's take a look at: MonsterMetroid Monster started of Timeline-a in a way that seems village. This is a trend that seems to continue. He's very active, shares a lot of reads and plans and encourages others to participate by asking questions. Chucking a vote at Orlok also seems to be a more village move, as it's not something an elim would do unless he/she was very certain of their case. So I'm leaning village on Monster Magestar Mage has been very open about his actions these past cycles. I'm not sure if it's a genuine attempt to show that he's got nothing to hide, or an attempt by elim!mage to make us believe he's got nothing to hide. I don't think he was lying with his first claim, however, since Ambition didn't get freed N0 he'd risk getting busted if two other people claimed to have taken from ambition N0. For the rest, a big deal was made of Mage claiming that his role hand't changed. That's somewhat noteable, but he was far from the only person to say this in one way or another. Some people have made note of his passiveness as well, and though I do see it, I myself am not particularly aggressive during the opening cycles either, so I'm not sure how alignment indicative this is. @Magestar, in a normal game I might somewhat agree with this sentiment, but in this game there where ate most 4 elims, in two teams of two. Neither team has the numbers to stir stuff up independently, and I doubt they're are communicating since they are adversaries. This seems to me like you where really just digging for an argument to not vote. I'not sure how to think about Mage. His open-ness about his actions make me lean somewhat village, but some of his posts make me lean elim. His open-ness could also be meant to misdirect. he probably did take from ambition N0. and I believe him when he said he doubled his actions last turn, but he could just as easily have gone for one of the other shards, with his claim of having missed ambition being meant as a smoke-screen. I'm going to put Mage in the slight elim-lean category for now. Megasif I honestly haven't gotten much on Megasif right now. I seem to remember him being a bit more analytical than he is in this game, but he also mentioned time-constraints, so that's a good excuse. @Megasif, why do you think so? I agree (see above), but some more explanation would be nice. I've got a decidedly neutral read on him for now. His defense of Mage is notable, but will be more interesting when we know the alignment of either of them. I'd say they choose people that haven't had the spotlight shone upon them yet, and that are either in the mid-bracket of posting(Bard, Steeldancer), or have a track-record of not getting found out easily (Orlok). Since Mage announced having taken from ambition N0, and the 'double your actions to double your chance at a a shard' gambit seems somewhat obvious, he'd also be a reasonable choice if they want to obtain a shard, though mage has had some suspicion on him. Edit: regarding voting, I'm leaning towards either mage or HH right now. I'd like to see HH's promised post before making a final decision.

That could be the case, but it isn't that far-fetched an IKYK that the elims would not recruit him because he's such an obvious conversion. In fact, I'd say its far more likely that they converted someone that's been flying under the radar. I'll make a list tomorrow of the people I'd consider converting if I was hoid or Khriss. I wouldn't lynch someone just because they're a good conversion candidate, btw. The best conversion candidates are also often important assets to the village. It's better to keep an eye on the and act if you've got proof of conversion.

The problem with this plan is that, if one elim team already has a convert, and they are all still on silverlight, they can break devotion free between them without needing any villager support. I think we just established that having devotion in the hands of the elims would be problematic, and this plan would guarantee that it would end up with one of the two elim factions as no villagers would be taking from devotion.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/wiki/Pocketing Basically, it's when an elim tries to get in a villager's good graces by defending them or otherwise acting favorably towards them.

Alright, on to the next two, being Droughtbringer and Devotary. Droughtbringer Drought has posted quite a bit, but most of his posts are very short (with one major exception). There's really only one thign that has stood out to me enough to make note of, and that thing honestly involves a bit of tin-foil. This is probably me projecting my own paranoia about Orlok on someone else, but I find it odd that Droughtbringer is willing to village-read Orlok on his usual playstyle. In my experience Orlok always plays very active and is always very helpful with analysis, irrespective of his alignment. I'm fairly certain Drought also played the game that taught me this, so I'm wondering if he's trying to 'pocket' (that's the term, I think) Orlok. This is me being incredibly paranoid, however, so take this with an unhealthily large dose of salt. So my read on Drought is neutral if I'm not being paranoid, or slightly elim if I'm being very paranoid. Devotary Devotary is definitely a fan of figuring out convoluted ways of getting things done (see PM-circle plan and 4-step-plan-to-confirm-pyro-is-survival plan). His willingness to propose plans and figure out ways to help solve the game make me lean slightly village on him. I didn't agree with his PM-circle plan, and I think his method for confirming that pyro is survival is a bit too convoluted, but just because I disagree doesn't mean I suspect him. There's one thing I'm wondering about though. Devotary was Khriss last cycle, and at the beginning of this cycle he stated that it made no difference for him. does that mean he is still Khriss? (I'm joking, obviously) slight village lean. Now, regarding our freed Shards. I agree with Monster that Odium probably isn't in elim hands. I'm not so certain one way or another about Ruin. Destroying Braize could have been meant to deny kills to the elims, but it could also have been part of a ploy to give his elim faction the sole use of kill actions (apart from odium, of course). With Ambition now in play, it might be worthwhile to share what investiture you have if you're very certain you're going to die. If Ambition is village she'll know whether it is worthwhile to turn you into a shade if you die. If Ambition is an elim or neutral then sharing that information probably won't harm anyone, as long as you share that information only if you're certain you're going to die (such as when you're well ahead in the lynch and there are good arguments against you). Dominion being in play means that you should be careful about who you tell about your intended actions. Loose lips sink ships or, in this case, get your game-winning action redirected in a way that makes you lose the game instead. Cultivation being free probably means that a bunch of PM's will start appearing. Just remember that whoever has cultivation probably has some form of agenda that they try to further by letting people talk to eachother. That agenda could be 'Help the village win by furthering communication', but it could also be more nefarious. Make use of any PM's you happen to get, of course, but be vigilant! There's not much to say about preservation, I think. If you do happen to turn into a mistborn you should be somewhat careful though, as your reactive kill could just as easily hit someone trying to set up a Pm as it could hit an attempted conversion.