DeTess

Okay, let's see. The people currently reasonably active are: Randuir Brightness Lemon Darkness Megasif Arinian Straw Drake That leaves @Shqueeves, @Sami and @Hemalurgic_Headshot. are left on the less-active front. Of the actives, I'm reasonably sure that BR is village. I've also have just had a PM conversation with Lemonelon which have caused me to revise my read on her, and I'm somewhat convinced she's village as well. Lastly, I'm still fairly certain that Straw is village based on his vote against Joe C1. So, ruling those players (and myself) out from the actives leaves: Darkness Megasif Arinian Drake I'd been leaning village on Darkness before, but his sudden turn-around on Straw makes me wonder about him. It could easily be a genuine Stratagem, but it could just as easily be an elim move towards easier targets. It has to be said that Darkness could have gotten Straw on the bridge D4 but didn't, which lends some weight to his claim of it being a stratagem. Or, alternatively, it would indicate that Straw and Darkness are team-mates, but I don't think that is very likely. My read on Megasif hasn't changed much since the last time I mentioned him. He remains sensible, but his comments still seem rather NAI. If it hadn't been for the fact that Arinian had (correctly) assumed Striker's alignment in his accusation of me, I'd have listed him as certainly village as well. As it is, I'm not highly suspicious of him, but I'm keeping an eye on him just in case. lastly, I've heard very little from Drake (had him with the inactives initially, but he did post yesterday). I'd like to think he'd be more active if he was evil, but that's not really proof of anything. So, that leaves me with two neutral reads, and no real elim reads among the actives, which is a problem, to put it mildly. It might just indicate that there aren't all that many active elims left. It might be that I'm completely wrong about some of the people I marked as 'very likely village' as well. In that case Joe probably did decide to sacrifice himself to get a portion of the elim team trusted. Almost makes it worth it to lynch Straw, just so we can test that hypothesis (just FYI, I still think lynching straw is a bad idea). Anyway, this game has me stymied worse than any other I've been in. Actually, something I've just realized @TheMightyLopen, @Steeldancer, are you still enforcing the inactivity filter? And if so, does that mean that Sami has either given some warning of inactivity, or is in fact active in PM's (or a certain doc)?

*Grumble* I'm running out of suspicions and neutral reads faster than we're running out of elims, which is problematic. Also, whoever just tried to eavesdrop on me and BR, you've been poisoned. More thoughts following later.

Arin explained it reasonably well at the end of D4, I think. He's wrong, but his argument isn't too bad. If I remember right, the reasoning for it is two-fold. First, he suspected that my vote in C1 on Striker was meant as a way to distract from Joe and save him. This argument has slightly more weight now than it did then since we actually know Striker's alignment now, but I'd still like to note that I made that vote when Joe didn't seem to be in any danger yet. The second part of his argument is that I've been playing it safe for most of this game, and haven't made any dangerous plays yet, or otherwise stuck my neck out. My counterarguments to that is that I don't really see anything I could have done differently that would have qualified as 'sticking my neck out'. Anyway, if Arinian comes by, he can probably explain it better, or you could just take a look at the end of D4. I don't think we've got more than one, and we might have none (or the merchant is inactive). The reason why I don't think we've got more than one is because this game lacks the usual counter-play against scanner-type roles, apart from day-poisoning which can be counteracted quite easily by checking en earlier scan the moment you hit an elim. Having more than one would make things really quite hard on the elims. The reason I think there might be none is that I haven't seen any evidence of a trust-group forming, which would usually be an indication that someone is out there clearing villagers and getting in contact with them. Maybe they're just really good at keeping hidden, though, or the elims have just managed to kill most of those that have been scanned and cleared. Edit: just FYI, if I'm wrong and there is a trust-group of cleared villagers out there, don't speak up to inform the thread of this fact just because I'm wrong about thinking you don't exist. Just do your thing and remain hidden.

@BrightnessRadiant, happy birthday! Also, thanks for sharing that bit of info. Anyone else had a similar PM?

I've got to wonder about the Orlok kill. He'd been inactive for most of the game and had only just announced his return and that he'd just be jumping into the game from that point onward, so I wouldn't have classified him as a major threat. Has anyone had a PM with Orlok last night? And if so, did he say something that might give a better explanation for his sudden demise than: Orlok: I'm back! Elims: AAAAAH! Orlok's back! *Shocked Gasp* Quick, kill it! Kill it with fire Poison! Anyway, on to a vote. If I go by my list from yesterday then my vote would be on Lemon. However, my read on her is far from solid, being based mostly on the fact that Joe forgot to mention his PM with her. My overall trust in my own reads also hasn't exactly improved after Striker's death (so if whoever did this made the kill based on my read of him, maybe go trust someone else's reads?). I'm going to join with Darkness's Vote on Manukos. Since logic hasn't really been helping me out, I might as well try and follow my gut here, and my gut says that something's off about a couple of things Manukos has said. His comment on my first post stands out in particular to me, but I also feel that there's something off about the way his opinions seemed to develop over this game. He initially stated that he was quite certain about the innocence of those that voted on Joe (with a paranoia clause included, admittedly), while lightly defending Striker when he voted on Walin. Then last cycle he completely changed his mind on Straw and decided to start voting on Straw. Also, despite posting rather infrequently, he's posted at least once each cycle, indicating that he is active.

Yeah, best to avoid a reoccurence of what happened in AG3. I think just reading through D4 should give you a good idea about where the various players stand, if you have time, of course. To add to what Orlok already said, though it's unlikely that the elims become inactive, it could be that there are elims among those who have been mostly inactive from the start of the game (Sami comes to mind).

Okay, so both Drake and Striker where tough? (right, @Steeldancer/ @TheMightyLopen?) Talk about coincidences. I do think it's somewhat noteworthy to see that there where at least 3 tough players, as that would suggest that there's a bit more killing power around than usual. Maybe compensation for the possibilities of guards getting poisoned? I'd think that if there where multiple assassins (or even if there was 1 assassin for that matter) we'd have seen something form them/her/him by now. Anyway, let's take a little time to redo my reads of the survivors(I'm omitting @Sami and @Orlok Tsubodai as neither has done anything of consequence since my last post on everyone). Drake(apologies for forgetting about you the first time around, btw): Drake added the third vote to Joe in C1. This would be the earliest vote I'd expect an elim to cast in that situation, and given that is was C1 and there where still some hours left in the cycle at the time I don't think its very likely that the elims would be looking to pile up the votes yet as things could have swung elsewhere. There isn't anything particularly alarming among the rest of Drake's posts, though I'm somewhat curious about why he thought that the Unremarkable vote on him was forced by the elims. I don't necessarily disagree with the sentiment, but I'm curious about what led Drake to that conclusion. Overall very slight village read Darkness: He keeps tunneling mostly on Straw. I reckon at this point that this is paranoia speaking, rather than an elim trying to draw the village into lynching someone. After all, there are far easier targets to get that done, while village!straw is only 1-2 elim attacks away from being dead. It just seems like a waste of time for an elim to be doing this tunneling when it could be turned to easier targets. Very slight village read. Straw: I'm still reading village on him, though Darkness's paranoia is starting to affect me somewhat. I'm still having a hard time believing that Joe would intentionally get himself lynched C1 just to get a more trusted status for 1 or 2 team-mates. Overall his posts have been sensible, though mostly NAI. I do not agree with his comment about not reading too much into the Walin lynch and will take another look at that lynch just in case. Brightness Radiant: BR has started to be a bit more active. I'm getting a bit of a village vibe from her, but I almost always get that from BR, so it's not really an indication. What is more of an indication is that she was the first vote on Joe. She did keep her options open about changing it later, but she didn't (though that could have been because she wasn't on in the latter half of the cycle). Overall slight village read. Hemalurgic Headshot: I'm still curious about why HH thought Roadwalker was probably good a couple of cycles back (@Hemalurgic_Headshot) as that came a bit out of the blue and without explanation. He wasn't wrong, of course, but I don't think there was much indication of this at the time. There's also something else that I find slightly noteworthy, and that is his trust that I'm probably village. I know that that's a very weird thing to complain about, but I think HH has played enough games with elim!Orlok to know that activity=/=good. This makes me a bit wary of him, but not enough to consider voting on him anytime soon. Neutral read. Lemonelon: I'm not sure about her. Joe omitting her form the list could have been an accident, but from her description the PM was active enough that that would seem unlikely. Then again, I missed Drake when I made my first list of reads so it's certainly not impossible. Her vote on Striker also seemed mostly bandwagoning on my vote. Overall I hope she'll become a bit more active here. Slight elim read. StrikerEZ: His vote on Drake was pure self-preservation, which is even odder when you consider that he was tough and would have survived anyway. Not that you should be throwing away your extra live if you're tough, but I don't see why he would endanger other people that he wasn't suspicious of when he wasn't at risk of being removed from the game. Essentially he was valuing his own extra life higher than the continued existence of another player, which I find suspicious. BR makes a good point about him probably playing more careful if he was an elim, however. Overall I'm still suspicious of him. Arinian: I've explained why I'm leaning village on him yesterday already, and he hasn't done anything to really change that right now. Megasif: Megasif has luckily posted a lot more since last time. His posts are sensible, and I don't find too much that i disagree with. That is unfortunately not particularly alignment indicative, and I don't have much of a gut read on him. Neutral read. Manukos: I have't got much of a read on Manukos. His post responding to my breakdown of the roles N0 feels a bit off to me in hindsight, but that's about it. Gut tells me to be wary of him, but I've never been one to trust my gut. Neutral read. Shqueeves: He voted Lemon because people where suspicious of her but not voting on her. This was almost a direct copy of something BR had said about Striker a cycle earlier if I'm not mistaken. Overall there's very little to be said about him, however, as that's all he's added in a couple of cycles. Neutral read. @Shqueeves, could you maybe provide your reads on a couple of players? Maybe Megasif and HH, or some other people of your choice? Now, let's take a second to look at that piece of vote manipulation. Darkness hadn't voted at all if I'm not mistaken, and BR hadn't had a vote at all, so all the manipulation accomplished was confirming that the manipulator hadn't been poisoned yet. It should also be noted that there where quite a few people with only 1 vote that the manipulator could have added to the bridge and create a possibility for them to be lynched. This, to me, suggest that this manipulator is probably village and just wanted to check if he'd been poisoned yet. There's an alternate explanation though, if you're willing to invest in a very big tinfoil hat. Darkness has been voting on Straw for the last coupe of cycles and the manipulator might have assumed that that was the case here as well. in that case their action would have been directed at saving Straw. Moving the vote to someone with no votes would also keep suspicion relatively low, while switching someone else into the vote would have created a lot of suspicion of Straw. Therefore, if we take this reading, it's either a village Worldsinger stepping in for Straw, or an elim teammate of straw stepping in to help elim!Straw. As I said though, this second reading requires a lot more tinfoil than the first. However, if we do end up lynching an elim Worldsinger than it might pay to take another look at Straw.

@Arinian, I'll go through your entire post tomorrow if I'm still alive as right now I'm not awake enough to be certain I'll be entirely coherent. However, I'm getting that the main point is that I'm sticking to stating things you believe are obvious. And yet what do you think I should have been doing instead? Should I have been sitting around silently, saying nothing, assuming others where also all drawing the same conclusions I did? My discussions with Darkness and Manukos certainly point out that my conclusion about straw's likely village-hood isn't shared bye everyone, and therefore isn't as low-risk a statement as you seem to think it was. Your other conclusion seems to be that just about everything I said was NAI. How exactly does that swing to me being an elim? Is it just the fact that I haven't caught any elims yet? Because the same goes for anyone that wasn't part of the Joe lynch in C1. Another argument you present is that I voted on Striker in C1, which could have been an attempt to save Joe. Ignoring for a moment that I made that vote before Joe started accruing a vote lead for the moment, there's another fault in this argument. Last time I checked, we don't know Striker's alignment yet. For all we know, he is another elim, which would invalidate that argument. This is, in fact, another good reason to lynch him, so we can either put this argument to rest, or look at it with actual knowledge, rather than speculation. With the exception of the fact that he's willing to assume Striker's alignment as an important part of his arguments against me, I don't think Arinian's vote on me is proof of him being an elim. If he is an elim, he'd know that I'd flip village, and that he'd likely be under increased scrutiny afterwards, so it would be far safer to just use the elim-kill on me. So @BrightnessRadiant, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, if your only reason for voting Arinian is that he's voted for me, would you maybe be willing to reconsider that vote? If you've got other reasons as well, then go right ahead, but if that's the only reason than I'm not sure how valid that argument is.

Arin, I'd very much prefer it if you where to try to fully explain what made you suspicious of me anyway, even if it takes a bit of time. If not now, then in the coming night turn. Knowing the exact details makes it easier for others to judge your reasoning and makes it harder for the elims (if you aren't one yourself) to turn you into a martyr whose example should be followed by everyone because there isn't actually any evidence to question. Also, maybe you should look at the full context of that post again you quoted again? At that moment I thought Jondesu had just said that he hadn't offered a role-swap to Joe at all, which just seemed really weird to me, however you looked at it. It also seems like you're accusing me of not taking risks or sticking my neck out. Which is not entirely unreasonable, but until you accused me the same could be said about you(and about a bunch of other players). What exactly do you think I would/should have done differently this game?

Guys, there's still 14 people alive, yet in 24 hours there's only been 10 posts, made by 6 people in total. @Orlok Tsubodai, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Sami, @StrikerEZ, @Arinian, @Shqueeves, @Straw, @Drake Marshall, if Real life allows it, please become more active. @Darkness_, if you're feeling better now, could you explain your suspicion of Straw more, as you mentioned in our PM? HH, I've been looking over Joe's list of people he PM'd again. Is it correct that he didn't PM you in nigh 0? And if so, do you know why he didn't when apparently he has contacted everyone else? Also, does anyone have any idea why the Unremarkables would vote on Drake? I haven't noticed him doing anything suspicious, but I could be wrong. Lastly, I'd like to point out that if no votes get added this cycle, there isn't going to be a lynch at all, so please get active everyone, and start voting. this isn't the time for all information to dry up. Vote tally Drake(1): unremarkable vote Striker(1): Randuir

I think chances for death in a full front row are even less, probably no more than 2 in total, but we'll see. I agree that we shouldn't fill it up, and 2-3 sounds just fine.

I'm happy this thread today is 48 hours, as this is probably my only post for the first 24 hours of the thread because I've got an exam coming up today. Anyway, the two people I'd like to see in the front of the bridge are Striker and Lemon ( @StrikerEZ, @Lemonelon). I'm voting Striker as I'd preferably want to see Lemons response to the thing I noticed last cycle. I also understand that she (I think?) was having some real life trouble so I'm willing to give her(?) a bit longer. Also, @Manukos, you're the second person to mention this suspicion that C1 was set up by Joe on purpose. Could you elaborate more on why you have this suspicion? I really don't see how this would be worth it for the elim team. I thought Orlok wouldn't do a double WGG last QF either, of course, but this theory about Joe seems to be a whole other category of wasteful(for the elim team) and unlikely.

I've Pm'd Sami and Shqueeves this cycle. I haven't heard anything from Sami yet, but Shqueeves told me he's had a very busy week and is resting up today. Hopefully this means that he'll return to the game soon.

Apologies, @BrightnessRadiant, I meant to say you where the first vote on Joe, not on Straw.

I haven't got much to add right now, and probably won't be on again until the end of the cycle. I'm not opposed to a Roadwalker lynch as there's definitely something going on with him. Vote tally for those curious. Vote tally Straw(1): Darkness Lemon(1): Randuir Roadwalker(3): Arinian, Jondesu, Roadwalker Striker(1): Unremarkable mob Edit: the Reason I'm not actually switching to Roadwalker is that I still feel that there's something going on With Lemon as well, so i want to leave the possibility for a switch to him open. Unless there's a large amount of vote manipulation that is about to be brought to bear Roadwalker's lynch is locked in right now so I don't think I need to add my vote there to prevent someone I think is innocent from getting lynched.

@Roadwalker, I applaud your appreciation for satire. Now can we be done with the 'I'm and elim, and these are my team-mates' meme for the rest of this game? Anyway, time for me to talk a bit about my reads of the various players. Darkness: I find Darkness's continued suspicion of both Jon and Straw quite interesting. I've never been an elim with Joe, and I've only once (not counting this game) played against him when he was an elim so I'm not too knowledgeable about his strategies. However, Darkness's stance about Straw and Jon seems to me to be far beyond normal Tinfoil. Then again, I don't see an elim risking attention at this point to try and reinstate suspicion on those involved in taking Joe out when it would be easier and less risky to just kill them all. Neutral read. Straw: Straw was the second to vote on Jon in C1. He did however provide reasoning for his vote, and then followed that reasoning and evidence revealed at a later point to vote on Joe. No sudden stance changes or other oddities there. The only other comment that stood out to me was his quick reaction on Walin's gambit, but given that at that point most people thought Walin was an elim than I'd say Straw's reaction was more villager-like, as an elim would have known that the reveal would be proven false in a bit. Given that Straw was the vote that put Joe in the lead I'm reasonably confident that Straw is a villager. Brightness Radiant: First vote on Straw, nothing else of consequence. I really hope she starts posting more. I'm leaning village on her. Hemalurgic Headshot: Hasn't posted much. I'm rather curious about what made him conclude Roadwalker was probably good though. Neutral read. Jondesu: Joe's target C1. Got attacked by elims in the might of C1. If this was part of some WGG then I really need to applaud the elims for their dedication to bringing this point home. I might re-evaluate him in 1 or 2 cycles if he's still alive, but for now I'm reading village on him. Sami: posted once two days ago to apologize for not posting. No read, poke notification to be more active(@Sami). Roadwalker: His first action of the game was to claim to be a village Unremarkable. If he's speaking the truth then this action worked out in favor of the elims. If he was lying then why speak up about this at all? As an interesting bookend, in his last post he claims to be an elim... Roadwalker did vote on Joe in C1, but retracted it again after Joe posted his defense.Though noteworthy, this is fairly NAI, as there are reasons for both a villager or an elim to do so. Roadwalker was also one of the first to vote on Walin, while calling it a poke vote in white text. His vote being at least the second vote on Walin, I don't think there was hardly anything pokey about it. Overall I'm leaning somewhat elim on Roadwalker. a lot of his actions just seem odd, selfish or aimed at increasing chaos. Lemonelon: I just realized something very interesting. @Lemonelon talks twice about communicating with Joe in PM's: There's a number of things standing out to me here, such as the fact that apparently an elim not admitting that they are such makes him trust PM's less. However, what he said also seems to indicate that he and Joe had a rather active PM. And yet, Joe failed to mention this in his list (and Lemon didn't correct him). It makes me wonder whether there where no PM's between them to begin with, just conversation in the elim Doc. This would certainly explain why Joe didn't include him in the list of PM's, and why Lemon saw no reason to correct him at the time. Anyway, this theory does involve a non-negligible amount of tin-foil, but at the same time it's an explanation that seems to fit the facts for me, So I've got an elim read on Lemon StrikerEZ: Striker is not verry active, and I remain somewhat suspicious of him because of his vote on Jondesu. Slight elim read. Arinian: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Arinian). Megasif: Alos posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Megasif). OrlokTsubodai: Hasn't posted much either, but has provided some reasons for that. I've got no read to him (which, given Orlok's tricksyness means that he's obviously an elim). Manukos: Hasn't posted much. No read. Eternum: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Eternum). Shqueeves: Posted very little. No read, poke notification(@Shqueeves). I'm going to vote on Lemon For now, though I might be willing to change the vote depending on what he has to say. @TheMightyLopen/ @Steeldancer since spy kills are shown differently from guard/assassin skills, and the previous spy kill was very clearly a poisoning. Does that mean that the rock being pushed onto Sart means that that kill was not the spy faction kill?

I'm pretty sure that I added the last vote, so I suppose that is an issue? I'm not entirely sure what you're saying there. Anyway, I took so long to vote on Walin despite voicing suspicion of him relatively early for a couple of reasons. First, I was somewhat wary of voting on a new player in C2, despite the fact that I was rather suspicious of him. It was only after he'd basically said 'I'm an elim, come lynch me!' that that wariness disappeared. Secondly, I've spend most of my evening yesterday finishing Persona 5, which kept me distracted from SE significantly longer than I expected, so I was rather slow to react to the developments in the later third of the day.

I reckon there's maybe 1 or 2 more. One of those might also be an elim. Now, there was some sense to Walin's plan, as falsely claiming to be an elim will generate reactions that might be alignment indicative. I will take another look at last cycle, though I don't have too much hope of finding something as it occured relatively late in the cycle after a lot of people had made up their mind about Walin already.

Yeah, Walin's list is almost certainly fake. He seemed too upset by Joe's sudden death to pull a stunt like that. Also, he neatly included two people that where already main suspects, plus someone that people don't have reads on (BR).

@Darkness_, I can definitely see elims switching to vote on their own, but as I explained above, Joe had only 1 vote on him when Straw switched, while Jondesu still had 2. I therefore don't think they'd consider things a lost cause yet at that point. I'm not 100% convinced of this (note that I listed the four who voted on Joe as 'likely village', not 100% confirmed), but of those four, Straw is the one I least suspect. I do agree that we shouldn't take Joe's reads as a real indication as there's likely elims among both his village and among his elim reads, just to make things difficult in case he got lynched.

Another piece I want to quickly post is a quick analysis of how the votes developed on C1. Joe kicked things off with a vote on Jondesu, which was backed up by Straw and Striker. After that BR was the first to vote on Joe. C1 Vote tally 1: Joe: BR Jondesu: Joe, Straw, Striker The next important vote that happened was Joe retracting his vote on Jondesu. Straw was the next one to switch his vote from Jondesu to Joe, leading to the following situation: C1 Vote tally 2: Joe: BR, Straw Jondesu: Striker At this point, Joe is leading the vote, though only by the margin of a single vote. Drake quickly followed with another vote for Joe, which put him squarely ion the lead. Only at this point did Jondesu add in a vote on Joe. The final vote on him was made by Roadwalker, but he changed his mind again after Joe's defense. Finally, a couple fo minutes before turnover, Walin added last vote onto Jondesu. C1 Vote tally 3: Joe: BR, Straw, Drake, Jondesu Jondesu: Striker, Walin Now, lets see what we can learn from this order of events. BR was the first to vote on Joe,m and she made the vote in such a way that she could have backed off later if she wanted to. she didn't though. This suggests that she is likely village, as it is rare for one elim to be voting on another and keeping her vote there in a situation such as this. Straw was the one to put Joe in the lead by switching votes, so he's pretty much cleared in my mind, as that's the one vote an elim would almost never be making. After that, we get Drake and Jondesu. Drake is also probably village as his vote solidified the vote on Joe, though it could be that at that point the elims had already given up on Joe. I doubt that though. The fourth and fifth votes are where traditionally the elims might be starting to add votes onto their own. Jondesu however has the advantage that it seemed like Joe wanted to get him lynched, and the elims would probably not fake such a move on C1, where it is very likely to result in either one of them getting lynched, so he's likely village as well. That leaves roadwalker, who voted and backed off again.This is NAI, as there are both good reasons for a villager or an elim to do what he did. So, this means that BR, Straw, Drake and Jondesu are most likely village(with Drake being the least likely of the four, and straw the most). This is a huge thing to have C1 as it removes 20% of the likely suspects. Lastly @TheMightyLopen, @Steeldancer, is it correct that the Unremarkable mob hasn't made a vote this cycle?

More thoughts in a couple of hours, but I'm fairly convinced Jondesu is village. The elim attack makes a lot of sense given that Jondesu would be considered cleared village so killing him would give the village the least amount of info. A wgg would not be inconceivable, but it would be rather wasteful to target Jondesu, given that most people already trusted him. That having been said, if we do have a merchant I wouldn't mind it if they could scan Jon to be sure. That's just paranoia speaking though, so make up your own mind in this regard. I'm pretty sure this is a case of tough player meets elim kill. If the elims had a second kill there's no reason they wouldn't use both, especially after our early success. Also, from a balance standpoint it is fairly unlikely that the elims have two kills in a game as small as this unless there's a lot of protection and people with 'tough' around. And Walin, if analyzing made one suspicious, I'd be lynched C1 of most games(I've never been lynched C1). Why do you think the fact that he was doing analysis had something to do with Joe's death?

Tenodin hated chasm duty. It wasn’t just the oppressive nature of the chasms, or the fact that they were looking for corpses to loot, or the fact that if they got really unlucky a hungry chasm fiend would make a meal out of them. Tenodin could handle all that. No, it was the fact that the eastern sky was obscured. For all any of them knew, a highstorm was sneaking up on them to crush and drown them while they were out in the open. Oh, sure, one of them Stormwardens had probably said that no storm was coming, but Tenodin didn’t believe in that. Stormwardens had failed him before, after all. He was shaken out of his dark thoughts by a shout from one of the other bridgemen. Apparently a number of claw-marks had been found on one of the walls and everyone was supposed to be looking out for a chasm-fiend. Ah, well, that’s better than a highstorm at least. It probably wouldn’t catch us all…. --- My thoughts exactly. There's a couple of things we can learn from this event. First off, the elims probably don't have an active vote manipulator right now. If they had one then I can't see why they wouldn't have used that power to at least put Joe and Jondesu on an equal amount of votes. Of course, that doesn't mean they don't have one, as there's a couple of players currently not active, so if it suddenly starts to seem like the elims do have some form of vote manipulation going then we should look at who was not active over the last cycle. Secondly, the Jondesu vote. I feel even more convinced that there was some sort of foul play going on there, which makes me even more suspicious of Striker. Walin also stands out because of his attempts to try and protect Joe. In particular, he said this which makes me wonder: From Joe's post we know that he was this guy. I can't remember where Joe stands on the C1 lynch discussion, so I can't judge if this comment seems out-of-character for him. What I'm most wondering about is why he said it if he is an elim and was fully intending on capitalizing on the D1 lynch. it makes me wonder whether Walin is using the fact that Joe supposedly said this to cover himself in case he can't stop the Joe lynch. It's a somewhat tenuous suspicion, and it isn't helped by the fact that the doc is apparently inaccessible during the day (so we know this wasn't a case of talking the doc). Still, if anyone knows where Joe stands normally in regard to C1 lynches, I'd appreciate it if you could share that info.

You are correct that an elim is rarely lynched c1, @Walin. However, most games without a C1 lynch tend to go in favor of the elims in my experience. The reason for that is that even a mis-lynch grants information, while a no-lynch gives almost no info, depending on the discussion. The less info the village gets, the easier things for the elims are. For example, if Joe proves to be innocent, I'll take another look at the votes on him that happened after the third. If Jondesu dies at a later point then information can be gained by looking at what happened this cycle. If we'd just decided to leave the lynch alone for a cycle than all this info would be non-existent, and finding hard evidence later would be much more difficult. Of course, you don't have to vote C1 if you don't have suspicions, but lynch discussion should occur, because otherwise information flows and discussion just grinds to a halt.

So as it currently stands, and barring any vote manipulation, Jondesu is going to be the one to get lynched. I don't particularly like that lynch,e specially since the way Straw and Striker jumped on it makes me suspect at least one of them is an elim trying to get a bandwagon rolling. In fact, Striker's vote is the most bandwagony of the two, and it might be a ploy by elim!striker to get back into village!Joe's good books by following his lead in voting. vote tally: Jondesu(2): StrikerEZ, Straw, Joe Joe(1): BR BR(1): The Unremarkable mob Striker(1): Randuir At the moment a single vote manipulator could significantly change the current distribution of votes, but I'm not convinced enough of anyone's innocence for that to bother me enough to try and solidify one of the other votes instead of adding Striker to the list. Edit: also @Darkness_ and @Sami, neither of you have posted yet. Though it is still early, you might have some unique insights that would be valuable to share with the rest of us (or just a "hello, I'm not inactive" is fine too for now).