Straw

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

...Straw, did you know Dannex was elim? Or were you just working against what the majority was attempting and hoping it wasn't elim-lead? 

I wasn't hoping to influence the vote. I just wanted to prove that I did have a Dione vote manip.

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

However, the DS doesn't count for parity so the votes you give them while you're alive don't get them closer towards winning, whereas once you die the votes do count towards the elim win-con.

The elim win condition is to reach a point where they can no longer be stopped. Assuming I loyally support the elims (which I will, since they can kill me), I am functionally on their side. Therefore, I count just as much towards their win condition.

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

Additionally, there are either 4 or 5 villagers left and it appears that two of us are vote-manipers, so there's either a 40% chance or a 50% chance that the random villager gained when you die is a vote-maniper, which would increase their tally by 2 while decreasing ours by 2 (rather than an increase of 1 for them and a decrease of 1 for us), and would probably ensure victory no matter whom we exe this cycle.  

Hmm, I'm not sure how well that holds up. Let's say there are five villagers and two village vote manipulators.

If they kill me:
40%: +2
60%: +0

If they kill a villager:
40%: +2
60%: +1

The issue with accounting for village vote manipulators is that it also increases the value of just killing a villager.

@elims bad move tbh. Instead of removing the village Dione, you essentially decided to shoot your own Dione. Don’t try it again.

I removed the Striker vote btw.

15 minutes ago, Dannex said:

Edit: @Elandera can I have a vote count?

Dannex (4): Quinn0928, StrikerEZ, Somebody from Sel, Liranil
Somebody from Sel (1): TJ Shade
Liranil (1): Dannex

12 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think Straw is bluffing. I think he's an elim (presumably their dione, though he could be faking for a teammate), and I think Quinn is the spy. I'm voting for Straw, but I could be persuaded to vote for Liranil instead, if no one is willing to switch to Straw.

I can offer up the fact that Liranil is a Dione as proof.

54 minutes ago, Archer said:

Howdy. Quick question, would running an I Hate Dragons game require a pass? It’s technically not published, merely available Sanderson content: link.

I don't believe it would require a pass, since it is a Sanderson work.

54 minutes ago, Archer said:

I figure if I sign up now, by the time I get to make it happen, I’ll be experienced enough not to mess it up.

Are you requesting a spot on the QF list? I can't tell from this.

54 minutes ago, Archer said:

I Hate Dragons Game (That Needs a Better Title)

In this 15-player Quick Fix game, there are three [elims], who have a Google doc. to collaborate in. [Elims] can secretly kill one player at the end of every cycle, except for the first. [Elims] win if they outnumber the [villagers]. [Villagers] win by killing all of the [elims].

At the end of the first cycle, one player will be elected [NAME PENDING]. Votes are cast through GM PMs. The total number of votes each player receives will be revealed in Cycle Two but the identity of each voter will remain secret. The [NAME PENDING] becomes immune to [elim night kills] and is given the ability to kill one individual [because they have the crossbow]. When they submit that action through their GM PM, the result will be revealed at the beginning of the next cycle. All kills will be announced as the type they are.

Order of Operations: [NAME PENDING kill], [Village vote], [Elim kill]

Players who are inactive for an entire cycle will be given a warning. Players who are inactive for two full cycles will be replaced. Ties will be decided randomly. PMs for this game are closed. 

Hmm, I'd say this is a bit too strongly in favor of the village. The elected kill is going to be solidly village controlled, since it's voted on by all players and elected player still has to make a reasonable kill (an elected elim can't just kill a top village player without drawing suspicion). The fact that it provides protection as well makes it even better. This means that the village has a bit too much KP. I'm not sure what you should do to fix it, but it's definitely village-sided.

EDIT: Wait, is the election every cycle? I read it as that but I'm not sure.

EDIT2: Okay, if I'm understanding correctly now, it's one election and one kill. In that case I'd say it's fine.

37 minutes ago, Liranil said:

See, I was thinking it was odd that they went automatically with the lower number of three elims, although that could just be them underestimating since 4 elims would just automatically mean we're done. 

No matter what, yeah, we have to vote out an elim this cycle.

32 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Wait... you're right, they did. I hadn't even noticed that, though if they're wrong all it means is that we're even more doomed. 

14 minutes ago, Liranil said:

So the question is, were they trying to give us the best chance/odds, or did they just let insider information slip?

I'm assuming three elims because the village has pretty much lost if there are four, so there's little point discussing that. Also, it's not like this is a new thing. Literally my first post on cycle one was commenting that I think there's three elims:

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

Okay... so then why wouldn't we just exe you? That way, we are guaranteed not to hit another villager. The elims lose a +2 vote difference in you, gain a +2 vote difference from the village, and lose the villager death from the exe (because I'd be very surprised if both Liranil and SfS are elim, and the elims have at least one vote-manip on their side, possibly more if they can somehow coordinate with DS!Straw). So it's a net loss for the elims if we exe Straw.

If the village votes me out, they lose. If it's 3 v 5 v 1 today, and the village votes me out:
-1 Spy from vote
-1 village from elim kill
-1 village from convert
+1 elim from convert
Which makes 4 v 3, so the elims have a majority and win.

Hi, I’m the Detritus Spy! Now, you may be wondering why I’m claiming, and that’s a pretty good question. Well, I’ve realized that us humans really are a threat, and that the Department of Protective Services is right. That’s why I’ve decided to join them!

You might be thinking that the DPS will just kill me and grab a conversion, but that wouldn’t really help them. I have a Dione vote manip, so I can essentially create a +2 vote difference. If the DPS killed me, they’d grab a villager, gaining a +2 vote difference. Therefore, the DPS wouldn’t gain anything from my death. They would also be missing out on the chance to kill a villager, so it’d be a net loss for them. The DPS can also ensure my loyalty very easily. If I turn against them, then they can just kill me and I’d lose. I also don’t have any reason to betray them, since I don’t win with the village or anything.

@DPS let me know if/when we have enough combined votes/vote manip to win. I look forward to winning together. 

4 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Bleh, sorry for my inactivity. Been quite busy since Christmas, so I'm currently trying to get caught up. I've only skimmed through the thread, so this may be a gross generalization, but from what I can tell, the reason for the rather large vote train on Breaker is just because they've been strange all game, and generally bizarre voting patterns/suspicions. Is this correct?

The things that I've seen at least:

• Breaker has not really given reads
• Breaker's vote switching last cycle was confusing and seems like it might have been to cause a tie
• Breaker has had a generally odd tone (begging for elims to kill him, not really offering any defense today, etc)
• Breaker wouldn't give reasoning for his suspicion on Liranil

On that note, I don't think I actually remembered to vote for Breaker. Might as well do so, even if it won't make a difference.

Okay I'm pretty uncertain with Breaker since my gut says he's village but he really hasn't been doing anything that villagery. I haven't seen him post any reads and all the vote hopping last cycle was very odd. I would be okay with an exe on him.

I'm going to have to read through the end of last cycle a lot since there was quite a bit happening.

2 minutes ago, Liranil said:

My main reason for not voting yet was because there was already pressure on Breaker from other votes, and I want to hear what they have to say about my questions (plus I've been doing most of my posts this round on my phone and I haven't figured out how to change text color on mobile yet). Also, what is bussing? 

Bussing is voting on another elim.

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

What's the status of the LG list on the spreadsheet? I have slot #10, but I'm pretty sure that's the game that I'm currently running...

Is there any way I could request an LG spot for 1-2 and then 6-7 months in the future? I want to try my Narak Blackout and then rerun Honorblades with some... updates using a certain piece of source material.

That is actually not the game you're currently running. See this post from you in the GM PM on Nov 30:

Quote

Can I get a new spot on the GM list?

Edit: For an LG.

As to requesting a certain timeslot, you can't exactly request one, you just have to get to the top of the list and then wait until your desired timeslot comes around. So it's very unlikely that you could run another LG in 1-2 months, but it's decently likely that you can run something in 6-7 months.

Okay, I'm back.

First of all, why is there so much kill discussion? I don't find that very helpful. I think that offering reads based on posts in the thread is much more helpful, since it makes people give specific thoughts on certain players rather than just making groupings.

New thoughts:

Striker - gut good, disagree on ties
Matrim - gut good
Snipexe - seems a bit too much
Xino - broke tie in favor of Ventyl. Either village or another elim in Mat/Archer/Snip.
BrightEyes2 - sudden vote on Ventyl, watch her

Breaker - odd focus on being killed
Quinn - bandwagons Archer, I don't like this
Breaker - overly aggressive, weird
Matrim - weird narrowing down
Archer - weird reads, too much village IMO
BrightEyes2 - not much connection between explained reads and list

Read list:

Breaker - mild village (getting weird feelings here though, would like more reads from him)
Striker - very mild village
Archer - neutral (leaning gut good though)
BrightEyes2 - neutral (would like more thoughts on why people are where they are in your list)
Matrim - neutral
Ghander - very mild elim
Quinn - very mild elim
Snipexe - mild elim

I'm a bit unsure about Snip, so I think I'll go with a Quinn vote.

I won't be around for a bit, but I should be able to make rollover.

Hi, I'm here. Sorry for not being around all that much. I'll try to update my reads at some point.

11 hours ago, Archer said:

Straw – First to list their reads. Also voted Snipexe initially, came up with good reasons. Defended me. RIGHT. GET CAUGHT BEING RIGHT? NEUTRAL (An elim would want to get caught being right, not wrong. Has confidence to support people they know are villagers, that builds their reputation)

What is this supposed to mean?

2 hours ago, Breaker said:

My honest opinion is that this sounds like bad faith interrogation, that the intention behind the initial statement was rather clear. If I am wrong, and you do read this differently from me, I genuinely do apologize for such a harsh accusation. Further, I hope I'm not stepping on the toes of your investigation, if this was a purposefully shallow attack. 

??? I was confused because Archer's first game was as an elim so I'm not sure how to interpret what he's saying. Since on one hand it didn't seem like he thought you were an elim but on the other hand if you were playing like he did his first game, and he was an elim, then I'd read his post as an elim read on you.

It wasn't an attack, and I'm not sure how you'd really read it as an attack on Archer.

Archer also kind of answered my question before I posted my post, but I'd written it around the same time as Xino's second to last post and forgotten to send it until later (hence why I also didn't have reads on the newest posts and why I missed BrightEyes2 posting).

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Ghanderflaffe’s making me nervous. Not in an Elim way, but in a likely to bandwagon kind of way. They asked for a vote count when there was one posted a few posts prior, which makes me think they’re likely skimming and may have missed some stuff. That said, last game I played with them, they didn’t vote much, so perhaps it won’t amount to anything. I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card. Both of your playstyles are perfectly valid by the way, they just make me feel less secure. 

I've been getting pinged by Ghander as well, but not in a "this post is suspicious way" so much as the fact that they've made five posts so far but none of them really say anything.

"I expect Breaker to play this game like I played my first one, which will also make them a wild card."
So wait, you're reading Breaker as an elim? You were an elim in your first game.

I don't have much more stuff, but here's an update on my reads (this is adding more to my previous reads, not my full read, see my past reads post):

Quinn - very mild elim - doesn't want to vote, open to voting anyone, will bandwagon at end
Archer - very mild elim - will not reveal suspicion
Quinn - mild village - prompts Archer, asks Snipexe reasoning
Ventyl - very mild elim - weird switch to Matrim

Ghander - very mild elim - hasn't really said anything despite having a fair number of posts
Archer - mild village - kind of feel like Archer would have just revealed if he was an elim
Matrim - very mild village - gut feeling

This updates my readlist to:

Breaker - mild village
Archer - very mild village
Quinn - very mild village
Matrim - neutral
Araris - very mild elim
Ghander - very mild elim
Ventyl - very mild elim
Snipexe - mild elim

I'd like to hear more from @Araris Valerian and @Ghanderflaffle.

Also, @BrightEyes2, not sure if you're around, but any thoughts on the game so far?

EDIT: Brighteyes, disregard the last bit, didn't see your post.

10 minutes ago, Archer said:

I understand that. What I have is a suspicion. Publicizing it isn't likely to greatly improve the conversation, but it is likely to prompt the Elim to change their behaviour. I believe that at this time, it's better for me to play my cards tight to my chest. I'm being transparent about that so it doesn't look like I'm ducking the conversation entirely, which would be more suspicious. 

Thirding Danex and Matrim on this. Right now I really think that you should share your suspicion. C1 is always a bit harder than other cycles, so we need all the discussion and thoughts that we can get. Especially considering that a lot of the current votes are just pokes, another legitimate vote would be a great help IMO.

2 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Also, I asked Matrim what the exact reasons for voting Snipexe were earlier, but he didn't respond--probably because he'd already removed his vote on Snipexe. So @Straw and @Archer, could I get an explanation? If Snipexe is exed this cycle, the reasons that everyone voted for them will be important information, and it's probably better to have everyone state their reasons clearly and explicitly now than try to have them remember later. (and I'm too lazy to go read back through the thread xD)

Archer did give their reasoning. It was a "shot in the dark" and they have a neutral read on Snipexe. Should be seven posts above yours if I count correctly. As for my reasoning, here's an expanded version below.

The first suspicious post from Snipexe is this one:

Quote

Hello, one and all. I'm considering Rping, but I think at least at the moment I'd rather focus on writing in-game related things. We'll see how many posts I get up this cycle, and go from there I guess. Anyway, I'm not going to drop a poke vote yet, but depending on how many people show up by midday tomorrow I'll probably drop one then.

It's hard to describe what's exactly suspicious about this post, and I do think it's only mildly suspicious. IMO it's kind of odd that Snipexe mentions future posts and poke votes to come. It feels like a way to have an excuse not to do anything for a while.

The second red flag from Snipexe, and the much more major one, is this post:

Quote

I disagree with this. While it is true that the village's voting is what gives it power, I don't think a double execution is necessarily a good idea this early in the game. The probability of discovering a legitimate Elim first cycle is practically 0. There's no evidence of actions, there hasn't been a vote-out yet meaning we don't know any roles/alignments, and there haven't been any pms yet. The village vote is effectively random chance C1. Gaining information is important, either via vote manip or on-death role reveals. However, it also means people are dying. Our chance of killing villagers this cycle is much higher than hitting elims with a kill, and every village kill is a step closer to Lylo. Having more random kills now rather than informed kills later doesn't really help us. The information we get now won't be as good as the information we could get later. I think double kills can be good, for all the reasons you listed. I just think random double kills aren't. 

In this post, Snipexe repeatedly says that the C1 vote is "random chance" and emphasizes the low odds of hitting an elim. He also casts doubt on the quality of the information from C1. IMO this seems suspicious since it's preemptively casting doubt on any information gained from this turn, which benefits the elims no matter what happens.

Another odd thing is how Snipexe doesn't acknowledge posts and votes as a source of information. The things that he lists as possible sources of information: actions, death flips, PMs, vote manip. I'm not sure if this bit is exactly suspicious, but I certainly think it's worth noting.

21 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'll join Ash on voting Straw, though mine is not a poke. It also is not a response to his read on me. It's founded on the grounds that the reads list is mostly composed of things already said, with that dreaded pinch of gut that cannot be ignored .

I'm confused about what you want me to do, since I'm not going to fabricate reads out of NAI posts just so I can avoid repeating stuff. Also, looking at my post, I don't think that I was particularly repetitive of other people, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

I don't really like guessing on Elim counts, but I'd think four is good. The Detrius Spy shouldn't really be taken as an extra elim in distribution, because that's... not the point of the ability. Plus they need to die. And I'm guessing three Elims is too small, considering LG67 (which was an LG, but still... a three-Elim team can fall apart pretty quickly, especially with action scanners).

Noting that that was LG68, not LG67, and the main problem with that was that there was an insane amount of action scans (over half of the playerlist iirc), so two of us were outed by them. That was also a LG, which are significantly more village-sided, and there was no chance of getting a convert from the Spy.

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

But I'll poke Straw. You're one of the Old Guard of SE, but you haven't been saying much. Any thoughts? @Straw

Okay, hmm, I admittedly haven't been that involved. Here are some thoughts.

I would echo the anti-tie side. It essentially allows vote manipulation to control the vote, and I think the elims will likely have vote manipulation.

Some initial reads on people:
Quinn - very mild village - prompted for detailed explanations
Snipexe - very mild elim - promises content late, could just be trying to dodge poke-votes
Breaker - mild village - good opening post, feels like a new elim would be more hesitant
Matrim - very mild elim - "brainstorming elim strats isn't the greatest look" feels off to me
Araris - very mild elim - ignored vote manipulation messing with ties
Snipexe - mild elim - says no chance of finding elim C1, continues to emphasize lack of knowledge now

So roughly:
Breaker - mild village
Quinn - very mild village
Araris - very mild elim
Matrim - very mild elim
Snipexe - mild elim

I think I'll throw a vote on Snipexe.

lmao that was quite a shock. Wasn't expecting a reset.

I still stand with what I said about there probably being three elims. I think that four would be too many with the possibility of a conversion.

19 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Yeah, put me down. What do I have to do to get the game approved?

You typically PM the full committee + mods.

What's up people let's go I suppose. With this many players I'd estimate that there are at most three eliminators, which would put the alignment distribution at 3 elim vs 1 spy vs 13  village. The elims can of course get a conversion if they kill the spy, hence why I think they only have three. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

Just now, Ashbringer said:

... with that in mind? How do propositions of Blackout games work? Like what if members of the Approval Council want to play the game?

Same as always, PM the committee with the public rules and ask for volunteers to look at the secret rules.

22 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I don't see how 'hanged' is any different than lynched?

While I'm not for the term "hanged" either (too specific IMO), I think that "lynched" is typically used in a much more racially charged manner than "hanged," so there is a difference even if they refer to the same method of execution.

Just now, STINK said:

Hiya

Hi STINK.

2 hours ago, Elbereth said:

While replacing Fifth, we’ve decided to expand the moderating team from 4 to 5, and are promoting @Elandera and @Araris Valerian. I’m confident both of them will be excellent additions to the team, given their years of experience in the games, level-headedness, and impartiality. I’m quite looking forward to working with them both.

Congrats to the new mods!

3 hours ago, Elbereth said:

We’ve also had a number of discussions about the term “lynch”, and have decided that, given that word’s racial connotations, it would be good to perhaps use a different word. This is not a rule, nor will it be enforced in any way, but we do recommend that you change to something else, and we as a moderating team will endeavor to avoid the term. We’re still tossing around ideas for this term. Some ideas we’ve discussed have been remove, expel, and execute. If you have other good ideas, we can talk about that and try to come to a consensus. For the duration of AG7, we will be using ‘removal’ as the replacement term.

I've been using "vote" and "voted out" since August and IMO that's the best substitute. "Remove" is pretty good as well. A lot of other forums use "eliminate" but that doesn't work here for obvious reasons.