DrakeMarshall

I tried change my vote to somebody who already had a vote to make an alternative lynch and consolidate the voting a little, and just when I do that somebody votes for the person I had my vote on before

Yeah, Soothers and Rioters are definitely iconic for Sanderson Elimination. I had Flutist and Lutist roles in my KKC mid-range game a while back that were very much inspired by the classic Soother/Rioter vote manips, with slightly different interpretations of "pushing" and "pulling" though. Depends on the person. It would be easy to spot for somebody who votes frequently but hard to spot for somebody who doesn't. Not that I'm necessarily saying you are definitively wrong to do so, but I would be careful about suspecting people for doing a thing that you also did. In order to further my quest to create a lynch with actual competition... Vote Tally Coda (4): Araris Valerian, Experience, Magestar, Ventyl Araris Valerian (1): Karnage Lord_Silberfarben (1): Lahilt Matrim's_Dice (2): The_God_King, DrakeMarshall Mist (1): Shard of Reading Magestar (1): TJ Shade The_God_King (1): Elkanah A Joe in the Bush (1): Coda @Matrim's_Dice you have a lot of RP which I am reluctant to discourage, but considering the amount of content you are putting out I feel somewhat justified in singling you out and voting to lynch you until you weigh in on the lynch discussion at least a little. Any thoughts are welcome.

Soothing and rioting are certainly the most reliable vote manips, yeah.

Yeah but if a vote manip happens and one of the players who was actually up for being lynched doesn't claim it, then we know for sure that the elims have a vote manip which is useful. We also know who they wanted dead, and who they would rather have alive, which is also useful. It's not as useful as actually lynching an elim, but it's nothing to sneeze at, especially considering the odds of lynching an elim on D1 aren't great in the first place. More importantly, a tie implies serious competition between 2 lynchees, and that is competition that I want to create. Lynches with no opposition tend to be less likely to catch elims, they tend to be less informative, and worst of all, they tend to be boring I remember, yep. It comes from the Reckoners RP. Basically we are all pretty sure that The Young Pyromancer is an epic whose power is starting new pages. Pyro starts new pages with statistically improbable frequency, even taking into account their overall activity level. So Pyro asked for catchphrases for when your power activates, and the only one I could think of was "Flame On!" from fantastic four.

Letting the elims choose who dies isn't the worst thing, I don't think. At least you forced the elims to do something. In my experience, the worst outcome is when the elims don't have to do anything at all, because the lynch is between 2 villagers. Doesn't leave the village with much info, and without other sources of info people tend to look for somebody to blame for the mislynch, which can be a bad cycle to start. That said, however amusing a 10-way tie would be, 10 is honestly way too many people to spread the lynch over. It dilutes information too much. But a 2 or 3 way tie isn't a bad idea, at least for D1, imo. That's a good question. I assumed voting on a player that got replaced wouldn't carry over but I can see why it would be logical to transfer the vote over to Elandera. Yeah, I like that people are trying to develop a serious lynch but I don't think it should be COda. Why would Coda not know the rules for Firesouls if they actually had that role or knew somebody who did, and seriously planned to kill people with it?

Oh huh. Did I mess up TGK's pattern? Yep, you're right, thanks. Fixed it. Vote Tally Coda (2): Experience, Magestar Araris Valerian (1): Karnage Experience (1): Araris Valerian Lord_Silberfarben (1): Lahilt Matrim's_Dice (1): The_God_King Emi (1): Ventyl Mist (1): Shard of Reading Ashbringer (1): DrakeMarshall Magestar (1): TJ Shade The_God_King (1): Elkanah A Joe in the Bush (1): Coda I also was somehow missing Joe's pattern, which doesn't technically matter since he's not actually playing this game but I fixed that as well anyway. You missed Lahilt voting for Silberfarben. One of these posts I'm going to do more RP. I really like that this game has had lots of RP. I prefer to separate my RP and analysis posts though. Makes less of a time commitment for posting so I am more motivated to make more posts. This game has a lot of cool-looking moving parts and potentially unconventional synergies. I am interested in figuring out the different pieces in play and how they are distributed. If you want to swap information or plan something or whatever, and you don't mind the fact that I tend to use my PMs to fish for information, feel free to PM me.

Wow you guys are really posting up a storm here. At least it should mean I have some basis for D1 analysis, for once. Or at least I would, if I could sift through myriad short posts before rollover Maybe it'll end up being D2 analysis after all. @Kynedath not guilty, you say? Hrm, I see. Most interesting. Very well, your case has been deferred. Ashbringer (@Ashbringer), how do you plea? With this sheer volume of posts, I think it'd make life easier if I busted out my vote tally script and put it in action: Vote Tally Coda (2): Experience, Magestar Araris Valerian (1): Karnage Ashbringer (1): DrakeMarshall Experience (1): Araris Valerian Lord_Silberfarben (1): Lahilt Matrim's_Dice (1): The_God_King Emi (1): Ventyl Mist (1): Shard of Reading Magestar (1): TJ Shade Now that I've done the pre-work of creating new regex patterns for all the new players, it only takes a few seconds to create vote tallies. So feel free to ask me for one whenever you feel like (yes, I am indeed shamelessly providing a useful service to the village for entirely selfish reasons of earning more boxings ). Also, who is down for making a gigantic tie?

I would, if you want. Last I checked Lorena was asking somebody what the heck was going on, which is a prompt anyone could answer.

So pretty much what I’m getting from catching up on the thread is that everyone is talking about the kandra and at the same time everyone thinks we shouldn’t be talking about the kandra: First off hunting for the kandra and hunting for the elims is not the same thing, as far as I’m concerned. Hunting for elims involves looking for evidence of hidden teamwork, which doesn’t apply at all to a kandra, whose main weakness is they have zero allies. Second, the kandra has a serial killer win condition and I would expect them to have the ability to kill, as befitting a serial killer. Third, do we actually know that the game ends if all the elims die but the kandra is still alive? @StrikerEZ That is all I will ever say about the kandra for the next few cycles. Lotta posts are clearly just made for boxings hehe. Can’t really fault that. I appreciate Araris sharing a trust/suspicion list this early. Kind of impossible to get solid reads at this point but it’s still phenomenally useful for later in the game when analyzing who is and isn’t in cahoots. Anyways I’ll vote… Kynedath, how do you plea?

Yeah I figured It's also why my first post had 200+ words of RP in it

Lorena stirred, eyes flickering open. As she shifted and stretched, a heavy fur-lined jacket that was draped over her tumbled onto the floor. The corner of the room was surprisingly comfy. She must have drifted off. This meeting was taking ages to start, but it looked like things were finally heating up. Rust and ruin, what was all that racket? Oh look, some bloke died on the floor with a coin through his head. Guess the investigation was going somewhere. Nobody paid the corpse much attention so it had probably been there for a while. But they certainly were having lively discussion. Mainly about who to kill next? Kind of brutal but you gotta do what you gotta do she guessed. The PLE was none too shy about that sort of thing. Anyway, there was probably stuff she could figure out by listening in. It was dark, with the windows boarded up. Hard to tell what time of day it was. Felt like a morning, though. “Mornin’.” Her eyes settled on one of the folks standing in her corner. “I don’t s’pose you could give me a rundown of what’s gone down here?” She glanced meaningfully at the dead body.

All 16 metals? All 3 metallic arts? Black markets, cool items, and a chance to hoard boxings? I'm a sucker for fancy mechanics like this I think I won't be passing this game up. Sign me up as Lorena Blackburn, a distant relative of the late Thomas Blackburn.

Lol that first cycle really threw me off Good game folks. Thanks Straw for running the game.

Wait did you actually pull off a D1 bus that perfectly? I am suitably impressed. You deserve the win.

Don't worry about it. I don't think Megasif and I have been cooperating in any particular way beyond having the same vote this cycle, but it doesn't really matter. I didn't think the village would probably win this cycle anyhow. Lynch needs two votes to turn around, which I doubt will happen, but @Sart @The_God_King if you happen to be around for the end I don't suppose you'd think about it? The number of votes I have right now should strongly suggest that eliminators are voting for me and it would be nice to turn this around if we can. Before this cycle, I'd have figured Archivist would be the final eliminator after Elbereth, Amanuensis, and Zillah, but I'm genuinely not quite sure whether it's actually you or not. EDIT: Wait no it couldn't be you one of my earlier trust reads has to be wrong it was either Archivist or God King. Interesting. Anyways good game folks. Like I said before it was fun getting back into SE.

Yeah so I really wanted to vote Elbereth for exactly those reasons, because if we lynch her and she flips elim then I feel pretty good about finding all her teammates. The thing is I'm still kind of paranoid about you, Megasif. I pretty much agree that if I assumed you were a villager then Elbereth has a high probability of being evil, but I am wary of assuming that. This post helps, though. I kind of don't suspect you as much. So I guess I'm fine with Elbereth, especially because the village needs to consolidate votes. Le sigh. The timing of this is not ideal, but for the record I really had decided to vote for Elbereth before this post happened. But obviously now I am keeping my vote on Elbereth. Not only for self-preservation (although obviously in part because of that) but because the weird tacit opposition to the Elbereth lynch makes me think Megasif is on the right track. If you happen to be a villager and would be interested in hearing my response to these points, here it is: 1. I addressed this in my post. So far nobody has died of inactivity. I said I would change my vote if it looked like they actually would die of inactivity, but a lot of people have been barely avoiding the filter for almost the entire game, and I don't think it's unreasonable to plan for this pattern to continue. 2. No, I don't think most would agree the elims are the most active. I certainly wouldn't: We've been lynching all of the active players for 8 cycles and what do we have to show for it? More importantly, if we supposed your assertion to be true than the village no longer has control over the lynch. It's LyLo so if there are any more inactive villagers than there are inactive eliminators, the eliminators have already achieved parity and the village has lost. If that is the case, then if you are not yourself an eliminator then you should be seriously questioning your role as someone supporting the leading lynch right now. 3. I said there is evidence against Megasif, but I also said that if I was going to vote on one of Megasif or Elbereth it would be Elbereth. Which is what I have done. Is there a particular reason you would like me to vote for Megasif?

Yeah I really, really wish I was actually being a clever elim. Earlier in the game you asked me if there was any questions I had that I could ask in order to trust you more. Considering the stakes of today's lynch, I am going to ask you the same thing. So, I'll be honest: my prediction is that the village is probably going to lose. The elims have shown signs of still being active enough to submit kill orders every cycle, and if there are equal or more active elims than villagers, then the game is done. Heck, if we're really unlucky the filter might even take out enough villagers to let the elims reach parity. For that matter, if God King is a villager our chances of winning have tanked as well, because as understandable as it might have been, they voted for another villager, and the elims can side with that vote to win the game. Even if the shades unexpectedly come through for us it won't help if we lynch a villager and reach even numbers with the elims. Even if we get this vote right this cycle, we have to do it again every single cycle until the end of the game if we are going to win. Villages just don't turn the game around from LyLo that often, especially when there are 4 eliminators still left. But let's do some analysis. The only suspect I'm gonna rule out a priori is myself, since I kind of can't not do that. The_God_King: Village read from their reaction to getting accused earlier in the game, but that only goes so far. Lord_Silberfarben: Lots of RP early on in the game and participation in the discussion that seemed mostly NAI to me. Kind of a village vibe though? Elbereth: Conflicted reads. Also interestingly I don't think Elbereth could probably be teammates with Silberfarben, God King, or Megasif. The_Archivist: Village read from their C1 vote but at this point what you did C1 is only worth so much and I know one of my trust reads was wrong. Sart: Their C1 vote made them trusted, and while we should probably be second guessing that at this point, most of Sart's later actions have also seemed village to me. Zillah: Neutral read, but it's also becoming increasingly evident that a fair few elims were hiding among less active players so I kind of suspect them on that basis. Amanuensis: Suspicious of Aman for similar reasons as Zillah but I also kind of wonder if he might have tried to knife CadCom and I'm skeptical the elims would have a knife. Although the elims attacking CadCom tonight is an IKYK-laden counterpoint to this theory. Megasif: If I were an elim I would have killed village!Megasif pretty much the instant I thought they wouldn't be protected by a medkit, and I'm wondering why that hasn't happened. Also, probably isn't on a team with Zillah, because Megasif tried to lynch Zillah and one of the only times Zillah voted was on Megasif in retaliation. A random choice would have a 50% chance of being correct. Unless there aren't actually 4 elims, but in that case we aren't at LyLo either. I am tempted to vote for God King, on the basis that they voted for somebody I know is a villager during LyLo, and if they even are a villager it might not matter who I vote for regardless. I am tempted to vote for Megasif, on the basis that the search for elims for 90% of the game has been fruitless, and that is strong evidence that the people who became trusted early on in the game are to blame. I realize that might be similar to God King's reasoning for voting against me. I am tempted to vote for Elbereth, on the basis that I want to make sure we put together a lynch with numbers behind it because that is the only kind of lynch that can be successful against the elim team at LyLo, and Megasif's vote is the only one I can side with. I have a feeling that 1 of Elbereth and Megasif is an eliminator and the other one is village. I'm leaning towards the elim being Elbereth but I don't feel that sure about it. But considering how the game has been going with us systematically lynching a bunch of active villagers, I kind of think that the eliminators must have a pretty high representation among inactive players. I believe the safest lynch is Amanuensis, but I could see there being a case for a different player in the same category. Nobody has actually died to the inactivity filter yet, but I might change my vote if it becomes clear that is going to actually happen. Thoughts?

*facepalms* Yeah there were too many votes on Kidpen at the end.

I am signing off for the night. If you insist on lynching me over last cycle then fine, I didn't expect it to come to this. But since we are that much closer to LyLo you will be making a graver mistake than the one I made. Also, Kidpen.

Woo more people. I was the one who protected you, CadCom. I would really like to know what kind of attack I blocked.

Yeah I can see why you might think that. Would it change your mind if I said I was okay with lynching God King? They aren't my first choice by a fair sight, but if we are the only people who are going to vote this cycle then we might want to agree on somebody. And you can understand why I might not want that somebody to be me I'm holding out hope that more people will post but yeah.

*villainous laughter* At this rate everybody else will die to the inactivity filter and I will secure a village victory by virtue of being the last one standing Keep it up, guys. But seriously please don't

Well, that clearly didn't work out. Most likely that means at least one of my trust reads is an eliminator, but it isn't the only possibility. It was worth a shot anyway. True to my word you can do whatever you want in the aftermath since I was wrong. I apologize if I was seen as taking too much control over the lynch as that definitely wasn't my intention. I can at times state my opinions rather forcefully. I don't suppose somebody would be willing to step forward and take credit for using a knife on one of these two? From Aman's post last cycle I wouldn't be surprised if they had planned to knife CadCom, but I could imagine somebody suspecting Joe enough to use a knife as well. Seeing as CadCom is still alive, it would probably be useful to know if they were targeted by the eliminator kill or not. Anyways the game is 7 - 4 right now if we believe the game was set up with 5 eliminators.

It's fine that you disagree. I made a pretty conspicuous post intending to spark discussion and I was kind of getting irritated when it had the opposite response. However, even if I'm wrong, I'm not really seeing how you tie that to my alignment. Seriously what do I even gain from doing something like this as an elim? You may disagree with my basis for casting votes, but I strongly disagree with yours as well. Yes and no. I'm not really clearing them so much as I'm choosing to gamble a single lynch on those people being villagers. Like I said to Silberfarben, if I'm off base about Karnage then you can freely ignore me or lynch me or whatever. I think it's the right point in the game to be making those kind of calls. I trust those people, so for the purposes of my own voting, I am going to exclude them from my suspect list. I was clear that if you did not accept the premise, my conclusion was invalid. I was also obviously still going to present my own position as the correct one but I think I did a fairly okay job of laying out the limitations to my findings. I disagree with your numbers, though. The main issue I have with your percentages is that you are calculating your probabilities under the assumption that my trust reads are completely random. I did not choose that players at random and I obviously believe that my choosing process has significantly better than random levels of accuracy I have a high level of confidence that each of those people are villagers. The other issue I have with them is that I don't think those calculations are quite correct? Even if you did assume that my trust reads were random. I'm pretty sure the probability of all 4 eliminators being found in a random sample of 7 players from the total set of 13 living players = (7 choose 4) / (13 choose 4) = approximately 5%, and if you were to add the 2 players you said you were okay with clearing it goes up to (9 choose 4) / (13 choose 4) = about 18%, and if you accept that I am also acting in good faith it goes up to 29%. Still not great odds, if you don't agree at all with any of my other trust reads, but also not the same as the numbers you were representing. I've said that I'm pretty confident that they are eliminators, because I am pretty confident that they are eliminators. I did not say this without reservations however. I am equally concerned by the lack of discussion. I think the mounting deaths of active players may be equally to blame, but even so, I probably would have avoided making that post had I known that the discussion would die after I did. I am honestly pretty glad that you are pushing for more discussion, even if I find myself in a position of being your adversary in that discussion. I can't speak very much to a gut read except to say that it is incorrect. I have been vocal about wanting Karnage lynched for the last few cycles, but that is because my reasons to suspect Karnage haven't changed while people have been lynching people I actually trusted over Karnage for the last few cycles. It is possible that confirmation bias has impacted my decision making process, but I have definitely gone out of my way to analyze every living player and not just Karnage. Honestly I wouldn't mind getting lynched and taking the back seat on this game; it's been fun to play SE again and I'll be keeping an eye on the signups for more SE games, but I've probably spent too much time on this game. But I truly think Karnage or Aman is the best lynch for the cycle, and I think I've explained why I think that in good faith. Anyways somebody please break the tie if you want a lynch to happen at all this cycle.

Indeed, Kidpen and Megasif were exactly the ones I had in mind. I stand by those reads but I don't think everyone would necessarily agree with them. And yes, the lack of any possible eliminator team including CadCom was one of the unexpected results I found from running through the possibilities I had basically no read whatsoever on CadCom themself, but somehow the interactions and movements of the people around CadCom prove them innocent.