DrakeMarshall
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Everything posted by DrakeMarshall
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Actually, you know what, no. I've thought about it, and I refuse to accept that claim. There is basically no gain from claiming this as a village, and what's more you claimed to be a Hemalurgist who killed the one person that wouldn't have put a new spike on the market. And you don't even have to really explain why you killed Azmine bc that was Ventyl so who knows. I'm sorry, but that's just too storming convenient Any eliminator or kandra could make the same claim and likely go unchallenged, bc even if another person claims vig we really have no idea if it was vig+kandra+elims or vig+vig+elims killing last night. Stay tuned for the next match in the thunderdome bc now I'm like 60% sure Illwei is evil and I'm fully expecting us to vote on each other next turn But why wait? There's already so much to talk about First of all, that is directly contrary to what Lotus did. And more generally my experience is that this isn't how eliminators tend to play games with these sorts of activity incentives (LG66 and LG30 come to mind, although one of these was a little while ago). Second of all, are the eliminators more likely to do this than villagers? Because as far as I'm concerned, all of the things you just said are just plain good things for a villager to do. Still, if you are implying that this applies to me in any way and that my posts don't have filler, thank you There are some philistines here with us who seem to disagree >:| At some point I am curious what is going on behind the interpretation of these reads but in the meantime reads of any kind are good. Imma point out though that I'd legit be okay with executing every other one of the sus reads you brought up, so idk even who my team would be if I'm evil. yes please do it call my bluff and vote to exe Araris I will help you I suppose the same goes for you, though, so congratulations on graduating to an at least slightly more villagery read. Probably a low info kill, yes. Not gonna complain if it means the game is more active. Although I guess that does also hint that the elims are on average more active players. Thank you for somebody noticing what felt like kind of a lot of "soft defense" around Ashbringer. This was the main reason I couldn't bring myself to unvote Ash until it seemed obvious it just wasn't gonna go anywhere. Okay I guess letting us know the elim kill was Jon and not Azmine is some potential gain from revealing as village!Hemalurgist. Although I still prolly would not have done the same thing in your place. In fairness to Szeth I do believe the use of my role would have been alignment indicative, just not to such an extent that it could ever clear me. I stand by my reasons for bringing up LG66. I wasn't even in any conceivable danger at that point, but that isn't really the point, I still think players should vote early, because it's still not the greatest to get a late wagon on you and not have anything you can do about it. And then in the very next post I started a late wagon on Biplet whoops Edit: Can somebody please post? This post is already way too long
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Mistake. Stealing from me was a mistake. Which one of yous tried stealing my shinies? I will find you. Your soul will be mine Upvoted. Not who I expected but ok.
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Guys it turns out I'm awake right now, if not for long. Who'da thunk. Still I'm a bit tired so bear with me if my thought process is a wee bit rambly. Looks like the Ashbringer vote isn't going anywhere, which is.. Interesting. But staying there doesn't seem likely to accomplish anything of material significance anymore. Even though I kinda still believe it's the best exe for this cycle. So... It looks like TJ is dying today. Which, is fine, because it removes a player that I had very little solid read of any kind on, and as far as I'm concerned that's a semi-decent execution. No matter what happens in terms of alignment flips my process of elimination ought to benefit from this. Now I could just throw my vote behind executing TJ, and maybe earn like 2 boxings for my troubles. But you know, when honestly doesn't the town need a devil's advocate? I reiterate that I do not particularly believe in unanimous wagons: they tend to be less informative, less likely to succeed, and worst of all boring. So yeah, I'm going to throw out taking a third option. As I am won't to do occasionally. slightly tempted to vote for Araris again lol Devotary's recent post feels sorta off, but I don't think I have the brain power to put my finger on why right now, so you know what? Biplet. Sorry I just want to know you're alignment TJ also has a point, though. I say as I do nearly the exact same thing
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Hey, we made it well into three pages. Nice. Vote Tally |TJ| (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Szeth_Pancakes Ashbringer (2): DrakeMarshall, |TJ| Ventyl (1): Biplet Szeth_Pancakes (1): Matrim's Dice I am mostly okay with this, although I will make the obligatory remark that nobody seems to be defending TJ (if anything, the votes on TJ developed rather quickly after Ash picked up a second vote). Do with that what you will, I guess. I'm assuming some of you all are gonna vote before the end of the cycle to earn your boxing, even if you so rudely disregarded my request to do it a little sooner But hey, I feel that, I am a seasoned procrastinator at most life things after all. I am honestly mainly just curious to see where things go in the last few hours, but I will very probably be asleep for it. So try not to break anything Why not? I’m a perfectionist sometimes, and it’d feel wrong to not have rules for it. I still have a headcanon that somewhere out there is an aluminum gnat that just started with like 50 boxings. This probably isn't the case, but I want it to be A Soulbearer+Slider would be equal parts hilarious and horrifying as a walking disaster zone of chronological turbulence and random redirects bouncing actions around like pinballs. Also wow you did a pretty good job with a really comprehensive role analysis. Makes me almost want to change my mind about voting on you I suppose I could switch to Ventyl
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It is possible, yes. I appreciate that you are doing analysis things. I see. This is at least sometimes true, yes. Clearly, the reason you aren't voting on one of us is that you're also an elim with us!! For what it's worth, if you want to argue for Ventyl I'd say go ahead, I might consider voting for them. I wouldn't call their behavior very alignment indicative, but most of the people who have much in the ways of behavior to analyze I at least somewhat trust, so yeah. A D2 vote is at least better than a D1 vote, but still sorta shaky usually. And you probably won't be the only person who says they don't really want to exe either Ash or TJ. manukosruthere? I wish PMs were still open rip. I have a theory about those vote manips last cycle that I wanna test. Also random idea, what if the kandra started out with 2 uncharged hemalurgic spikes? I could see it making some sense both lorewise and balancewise. My one reservation about this is that so far nobody seems to have started the game with items, so it would be a break from the pattern. Anyways probably this cycle has been a little slower than the last bc we're in the middle of the week. I'll look back at the thread in a couple hours and stuff.
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This cycle feels weirdly like it did at the same time last cycle, in that it looks like we may have to wait until the end of the cycle to see an actual wagon take shape. I have to believe more people will vote, eventually, because there are mechanical incentives for it. And I'm not really the biggest fan of this state of affairs, given how it ended for me in LG66 I got blindsided by a wagon while offline. I am going to politely ask that people who haven't already voted to consider trying to vote now, even if you feel behind in the cycle and/or don't feel very justified in your reads. Because, I don't feel very confident in my reads either! I don't think any of the village is, if we are being honest. But it's still best if we vote early and often. It's not really terribly polite for the people you are voting for nor very good for the village in terms of discussion to drop a vote right before the curtain drops. But didn't Araris and I both already say on D1 that we are both elims distancing from each other?! Look, he even retracted his vote. Clearly this is all a very elaborate distancing tactic At the risk of bringing up more matters of voting philosophy, wouldn't that only make TJ sus if Mat is sus? I feel like elims saving their teammates is more often implicit than explicit, although there can be exceptions. Vote Tally |TJ| (2): Araris Valerian, Archer Ashbringer (2): DrakeMarshall, |TJ| Szeth_Pancakes (1): Matrim's Dice I am kind of feeling bad about pushing the whole Ash thing, but, like, my reasons for doing so are also still there. I don't really have a better idea or a person I think is more likely to be an elim. So my vote is staying put for the time being. As it stands, I would expect |TJ| to be the one who dies, bc Ash has good reason to vote for |TJ| right now. I don't really suspect |TJ| and they wouldn't be my first choice, but I also don't particularly trust them, so as it stands I guess I'm fine with waiting and seeing how this turns out. Or maybe somebody wants to support executing Szeth. You've seen my reasoning against it, but hey, maybe I'm wrong and just got completely pocketed. Whatever you think, please share it, and vote
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You would be correct, the difference between our voting philosophies is not big but it is nonetheless exceptionally profitable I'd say that basically the difference boils down to you favor applying pressure in depth whereas I favor applying pressure in breadth. I agree that very consistently unvoting players who are undefended could be taken advantage of by the elims. And the same goes for very consistently not retracting your votes As much as I stand by my view on this, I'm actually sorta glad that this is a point of contention, bc the village is probably better off if there really isn't a consensus on the subject. It's better that this aspect of voting philosophy is never enshrined in the meta, where it would become much too easy to exploit. This is true, and if Experience had flipped as an eliminator it might have even been rather suspicious. I mean, I'm happy splitting the cycle's boxings with Araris, but it would be nice to hear from more people. unless you're going to vote for me Digging through the archives for interactions with Lotus has not been as fruitful as I hoped. Lotus didn't say much beyond RP, the only people I can find who mentioned reads of them were TJ, Matrim, and me, with TJ's being the only not neutral read.
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At this point, how is what you are doing any different from what you disparagingly referred to as voting based on "what amounts to a disagreement over voting philosophy"? I'm down to talk voting philosophy, but is this how you are justifying your suspicion of me, or not? It reduces the pressure of early votes, but it doesn't get rid of it entirely, or even necessarily mostly. People don't necessarily respond proportionally to the amount of danger they're in. Do most players respond significantly differently if it's a 25% risk of being executed or a 50% risk? I don't really think so. Any significant amount of danger pretty much creates pressure to respond to it. And leading in the votes at any time in a cycle counts as a fairly significant amount of danger, in my books. I mean, sure, I might change my vote, but maybe I won't. I can be pretty arbitrary about when I argue to derail a wagon and when I just... Don't. My vote is gonna be on someone when the turn ends, and there is legitimately no guarantee that it won't be the first person I voted for in the cycle, or the second, or the fifth. It may not be often, but I definitely have kept my vote from the beginning of D1 before, and I don't have to do it always to prove that there's a real chance that I might. And, heck, even if my first vote is pretty much a throwaway, so what? Then maybe it's the second or third vote where it starts to be serious. Sure, that means I wasn't applying pressure for the whole cycle like you were, but by my third vote (with plenty of time left in the cycle), I was applying real pressure. If Experience were an elim, the elims really should have felt under pressure to do something about my vote, because my vote was partially responsible for eventually killing Experience. I don't think the elims can actually do nothing. Literally nothing means never posting in the thread and pretending you are inactive, but even just playing super passively all the time would mean ceding all control over what happens in the thread, and creating a pattern that makes it really easy to catch elims, neither of which would be good for the elims. How somebody could have defended Experience last cycle is by voting and pushing for somebody other than Experience. This can be accomplished while only barely mentioning Experience, or even without mentioning Experience at all.
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I agree that it is perfectly viable to put somebody up for vote on D1 who hasn't done anything suspicious. Where I disagree is with keeping that person up for lynch if it seems like there is a better choice available. If you want to make your first vote be your last vote, that is fine, but is that a strategy you think everyone should follow? The response you gave to my vote came at like 2AM for me. I didn't see it. Sorry bout that. Please explain why my reasoning seems inconsistent. You have certainly established that you disagree with it, but what specifically contradicts itself? Because while I could certainly be wrong, I don't believe I've been inconsistent. You wouldn't be the first or likely the last person to get whiplash over my voting for somebody at one point and then abandoning the vote or even defending them later on Even so, I have yet to be given cause to regret defending players who nobody else is defending and pushing the vote towards a different target. It's just, people in this category legitimately don't tend to be elims. Even if the elims tried to do the same thing with a teammate, it would be really hard to make that look convincing, and even if they did then it would become really easy to identify them as a team once one of them died. EDIT: Missed this line before. Yes, the benefits of such would be rather large. But so would the benefits of boosting teammates, probably. I'm not saying elim!Szeth wouldn't have agreed to it. I'm saying elim!Szeth would have probably taken a second to think about it first. I don't believe saying either yes or no was alignment indicative, really, just that it was a simpler decision overall for a villager.
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Yeah, there's a reason why that was my last of three reasons It's, uh, not very much reason on it's own. I also have an open tab 24/7, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't constantly say I'm viewing the thread, I'm pretty sure it's only in the vicinity of when you reloaded the page or whatever. And again, I fully agree that this is the sort of thing to take with very many grains of salt, but, it does potentially relate to activity outside of the thread, and I think analysis of when somebody is online is generally fair game even if it's very inconclusive. Considering that you are pushing me as the most likely person you think is an eliminator, it is kind of interesting that you would phrase this like you are assuming that I don't know Matrim's alignment But yeah, I do 100% find tie avoidance more suspicious than defending a player of unknown alignment. We don't know anyone's alignment unless they are already dead, but we still gotta guess. Yes and no. At least when I voted on Experience, the cycle was already more than half over and still nobody had really made a move to take you off of the chopping block, so there was actually a degree of slightly village reading you in play. But yeah the activity was also very definitely a factor. Yep Interesting. I mean, Ash said that they had bad experiences with ties in the past, so maybe at one point they were okay with making ties but then that changed, and the two of you have been in different games with Ash. I mean, yes, I guess it just feels ironic that I'm the one arguing against claims in the thread, and I am also apparently the one with a reputation of being free with role claims, so much so that you suspected me for it at one point. You can't take the same action twice in one cycle. So you can't steal on a day turn and then steal on the night turn, at least not without a power that grants extra actions which gets around this. If you were doing it because you preferred to execute Experience over Matrim, that is understandable, although I sorta wished that had been in the post with the vote bc then this wouldn't be an issue I will think about this. The tone of this defense at least seems genuine.
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Echoing Matrim, I for one would not countenance executing another completely inactive player at this time. (although if any coinshots feel like going after them, I guess I wouldn't necessarily object) Is this basically for the boxings? I can't use the quote button for this one since it's already been added to the locked main thread, but this one is from @|TJ| I will note that you have more elim reads than there are likely elims, and this is only among the 10 players you have reads on, so some of those elim reads are definitely incorrect. Although, you were also right about Lotus, so congratulations. For my read, I refer you to the questions I asked Matrim. I wasn't there in LG74, and your current meta about roleclaiming is confusing to me I did the exact same thing in LG66, and I don't even particularly regret doing it, even though the elims knew my role pretty early on. Information trading is fun. I remember I played a game a little while back that had a neutral role just entirely based on trading info in PMs and docs, and it was a good time. Moreover, the benefits of synergizing roles in this game potentially outweigh the risks, and the potential for such combos is one of the things that makes this particular setup so cool. All that said, I'm village reading you a bit for this post. When an elim says they suspect someone, it usually isn't in their interest to change their mind unless there's a decent amount of opposition. And while I've been village reading Szeth, I kinda think it would've been an easy-ish execution to push through if you and Matrim had both kept gunning for it. Who knows, it might still end up being the execution that gets pushed through. So, your reasons for suspecting me are basically that you and Matrim should have been in the same category? You had done something I legitimately found somewhat suspicious. Matrim hadn't. Experience hadn't. Therefore, you were a better vote option than either Matrim or Experience. Maybe you disagree with the veracity of my read, but even if the quality of our reads are garbage on D1, we can't really do anything more than follow them to the best of our ability. If nobody makes an effort to actually find elims, even one that will probably fail, then what even is there to analyze? It's just people voting randomly.
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Interesting. From my limited sample size, it seems like the overall power of roles in this game might be slightly less than it was in LG66, where IIRC basically everyone had 2 roles. The presence of three kills is a little surprising. Two I might expect, one for the elims and one for the kandra who probably has a kill, but a third is a bit strange. Most village killing roles would want to wait at least a bit before vig killing someone. And even if the elims had an extra kill power, the only conceivable way that would be balanced is if the number/frequency of uses is limited, in which case using it up N1 seems like it'd be poor strategy. I suppose there is some incentive for a hemalurgist to strike early, to obtain a useful power early on that they can start using, but even then I might want to wait a cycle or two to learn who a good target might be. Still, not gonna complain. I did not expect to see a dead eliminator this early. Why would they claim now? There is really not much point in clearing yourself unless people are voting for you, except that you are letting the elims know who to kill. This is the second time that somebody who turned down my role-trade offer in PMs, and who suspected me for even making such an offer for information concerning their role, has now turned around and asked somebody to make a completely public role-claim in the thread, when there wasn't really even a clear benefit in doing so. Now, I admit, I haven't been around for a while, and there is clearly some stuff I'm not getting. But the current meta about roleclaiming that I am observing seems confusing and inconsistent with itself. What gives? Does this mean there are in fact two thieves? Idk what else it would be. I'd say maybe somebody roleblocked/pulsed you but two of those roles just died, so, that's looking a bit less likely. Seeing as Szeth actually claimed, I think I can at least provide my reasoning for why Szeth is village. I think an elim!Nicroburster would not jump at an opportunity to nicroburst some random villager, which is basically what Szeth agreed to almost immediately when I offered it, pretty early in the turn. If I were an elim!Nicroburster, I would want to take some time to think about the possibilities of boosting all of my different teammates, which is not something I observed Szeth doing at all. I will continue in a new post bc this one is plenty long enough already.
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Alrightie that seems to have been an eventful night. I really want to go back and sift through everything people said about Lotus, now. For now, though, I am going to suggest that Ashbringer is a good choice. Here are my reasons: Like I brought up last turn, of all of the votes on Experience, I am most suspicious of theirs. I don't dispute that tie avoidance may be a valid reason, but the thing is, it is an equally valid reason for all wagons. So if it's the main reason you are giving for your vote, it seems like there are other reasons you're maybe not saying. And while I get that everyone is stretching to find reasons to vote a little bit in D1, of all of the votes that happened, this one probably sticks out most. They have been engaging in discussion mostly only when somebody calls them on something. And, again, this does not necessarily make an elim, but I do think it makes it more likely. A couple times I've noticed Ashbringer viewing the thread for a while without posting, and while this isn't really a big deal, it does make me think maybe they are spending that time being active in the elim doc. D2 votes kinda feels bad because I'm really not that sure about Ashbringer being evil, but I'm also more sure about it than I am anyone else, and I disagree with literally all of the other votes cast so far in this turn, so... Yeah. Next on my to-do list will be replying to a bunch of stuff and then rereading the previous cycle.
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Starting a new wagon was a theoretically viable option, just one that would have been sorta counterproductive and hypocritical for me to take at the time. But times change and I later decided the badness of the current wagons probably outweighed whatever reasons I had for not trying to make a new wagon earlier. Fewer than you would think, honestly Either the rumors of rampant PM unsafety I've been hearing about are exaggerated, or I was particularly unlucky in choosing to send PMs to a lot of the people who were the biggest supporters of PM safety In any case, I think I'll take my chances. See, maybe I'm more free about disclosing my role than some, but not free free. It's gotta be a trade, quid pro quo, yeah? You decided against that particular trade when it was offered, so I'm not exactly gonna just tell you my role if you ask nicely, now, am I? You have done a terrible, terrible thing Striker forgetting about Mist was a mist-ake I mean, I guess I can see where you're coming from, if you have bad experiences with ties. Whether or not ties are actually good or not can be a discussion for another time. My point was that avoiding ties is a valid justification for basically any wagon. You chose this wagon in particular, and I have to imagine that you do not jump on every wagon you come across, which is why I find it a lil suspect for that to be the main stated reason for a vote. It implies a degree of hidden motive. I gotchu fam
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Juno took a seat nearby as Shara seemingly took her measure and then introduced herself. "Hmmm, I remember you from the meeting, I think. You wrote to me, before the messenger service went down." A good conversation, even if Shara's views on the trade of information were regrettable. A shame, what happened with the messenger. Juno fished in her pocket for a moment, touching a slightly creased scrap of paper, a message that had meant to be sent and a promise that could not easily be kept. Who'd have thought Zara was missing from the meeting only cuz he had his hands full with singlehandedly delivering all our messages? "Sorry to hear 'bout that unsavory business with the death threats and the bloke in a very vibrant cloak, by the way. Am I right in guessing that you would be from Elendel? One of Yoden's people, perhaps?" The folks from Elendel proper largely didn't understand Garmet's problems, but Juno reluctantly conceded that this was, for the time being, alright. We've got bigger problems on our hands, and harmony knows it. Still, she wasn't exactly planning on letting Elendel sweep Garmet under the rug after the whole rebel thing blew over. Just... After.
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Juno flung the door open to Garmet's most reputable tavern, a bustling establishment only a short walk away from the meeting hall. She walked purposefully up to a counter, waving at the owner, a shortish bloke sporting a mustache and a brightly colored shirt. "I would like..." She said pensively, "some soup." They'd been at it in the meeting hall for hours into the evening, and those refreshments just weren't cutting it. Juno dropped a handful of boxings over the counter, which he accepted bemusedly, and slumped into her seat. She zoned out for a moment, thinking over the past day, before coming to with a start at the realization that she wasn't the only person from the meeting hall in here. She gratefully accepted a bowl of steaming onion soup and a generously buttered slice of bread, making her way to where that pair was sitting. What was their names again? Josephine and Shara. She was pretty sure they were both from Elendel. "Long day, yeah?" she said from behind them. "Rebels really shook the town up." She eyed the neglected glass of wine speculatively before claiming it for herself. It wouldn't do to see it go unappreciated, it simply would not do. "I'm Juno, by the way. Pleased to meetcha." sorry not sorry
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A wild archer has appeared! Maybe now I can figure out how to read you properly There seems to be plenty to look at in your post. I would actually be pretty surprised if both of those vote manipulations were a result of soothing... I thought that executing experience was preferable to executing any of the other people who had votes. And with the information I had at the time (namely, not knowing experience was apparently the only tineye in the game), I cannot honestly say that this assessment was incorrect. Like I said in that post, my goal was to consolidate the vote, because up until then all of the votes except Araris' were scattered to the point of being inconsequential, with none of the people with votes in any real danger. In retrospect, it would seem that I accomplished my goal. However, experience was an inactive player, and everybody seemed pretty lukewarm about executing them, which made me change my mind about experience being the best available option. The fact that experience seemed like the best option among the players who were up for the vote became outweighed by the fact that the experience train seemed increasingly like a dead end, both in terms of information produced by it and in terms of the likelihood of getting an evil role killed, so I later pushed for the execution of somebody who was not previously in the running, a motion that others apparently did not see fit to support for one reason or another. Does that answer your question? I hate to shoot myself in the foot here, but |TJ|'s meta analysis was based on my behavior in LG66, where the same boxings incentives were present. So his meta-analysis was sound. The main reason I think the conclusion of said analysis was misleading was because it was based on a sample size of two. I feel that a lot of things he pointed out are actually very common things for me to do as a villager, and LG66 was in some ways atypical of how I usually play as village. In fairness, the post by Araris in question did not really say anything secret. Like, it's a pretty common method of analysis, so he didn't create an IKYK so much as just highlighted one that was already there. Mhm, I think a couple of us noted this. Personally, I'm inclined to give the benefit of the doubt on it for now, though, because I feel like that suspicion is mostly balanced out by how Biplet handled the thingy with Ventyl. To be fair, Szeth was also a pretty big fish. At one point I observed in our PM that we were basically neck and neck for the 3 boxings prize. Maybe the thief is a villager who trusts me I mean, it's like I said. All you really know at this point is that Szeth and I have roles. So what? Everyone does I, uh, may have offered roleclaim trades to literally everyone I messaged People keep telling be about this 'PM safety' thing, whatever that means... I am pretty sure I haven't, but you are perfectly welcome to try
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If it's just a matter of making some amount of votes cast at the beginning of the cycle still meaningful, I can respect that. But I do think there is a balancing act. Constantly changing your vote makes voting meaningless, but never changing your vote makes analysis meaningless. And if you think we are too far towards one side of that balancing act, and are trying to even the scales, then that's perfectly fine. But I believe the goal should always be to hit an elim, even if we very probably won't succeed on D1. Yeah sorry I know you've sorta explained some of this stuff I guess I'm just perplexed about Archer in particular bc everyone's read on them is kinda sorta gut, which is fine, but I am a little surprised that they all seem to agree, whereas I for some reason do not share the same gut read. I agree that Araris' post seemed vaguely village, although I will also say that I have definitely made arguments about "meta" and optimal play while being an eliminator before. There are some ways of playing that I would defend regardless of alignment, as a matter of principle. Are you saying both me and Szeth tried to get you to claim? The message text contains seven instances of the letter 'A' So, we do not have a vote tonight, nor do we have PMs. I am thinking now would be a pretty good opportunity to do more RP. Problem is, I don't really know what to RP about next. There are only so many outlandish ideas I can suggest, see. Hmmm... Anybody wanna RP with Juno?
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For what it's worth... By now I would not be surprised if some people have put together the pieces that Szeth and I had an arrangement concerning a possible use of our respective roles. I made the offer, after some brief negotiation Szeth quickly accepted, and I strongly suspect the same offer would have given elim!Szeth pause, even if he did end up accepting it. That is a lot of my reason for village reading Szeth. So yeah, we have roles, everyone has roles A lot of them can benefit from each other. It doesn't really matter anymore because PMs are ded. That is all. Could someone explain to my why Archer is on everyone's trust reads? Like, I almost kind of have a sus gut read of them, and I'll defer to others if there's something super villagey that I missed that everyone else picked up on, but I'm just mostly confused. I can sympathize, especially bc I literally just asked Matrim to clarify something about their reads well Also though. I just kinda want to point out that between posting reads with few explanations or not posting reads at all, the former is definitely better for the village, and there are lots of people who haven't even done that. Le shrug. I do not really understand how oversight on my role would have allowed me to be mechanically confirmed one way or the other, but I do hope it would have at least built up some degree of trust. I figured it out. Tada! Now gib upvote
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Aight I am looking at the last couple posts from the previous day: Well, this vote for experience is definitely understandable. Also reads closer to village frustration at being exed without enough reasoning, but shrug elims also get frustrated if they feel like they are being exed for the wrong reasons so this is only a slight village read on Matrim. So this is pretty much the reasoning that feels typical of the experience train. And, in fairness, the reasoning is basically 100% correct. With what we knew at the time, experience was a better choice than matrim. I just wish we could have taken a third option. Of all the votes on experience, I am probably the most suspicious of this one. In my experience, when the main reason for a vote is preventing ties or vote manipulation, it is often a disingenuous vote. Because, while it is a valid reason, it's also a justification for literally any train ever. Why do you support this train in particular? If it was one of several reasons, then fine, but if it's the main reason for casting a vote, I am suspicious. Interesting, I didn't notice those. Soothing is not the only possibility, and I will assume you either do not possess any of the ferring roles that cancel out your vote while storing, or that you are making a very sneaky IKYK pretending you are unaware of these roles Wait, you started the game with boxings? Or does the thief action happen after income is added in a turn? Oh, it does. Huh. Anyways: I may have a soft spot for thieves since it was my role in the last game. However, Thief, if you try stealing from me, this will not stop me from going to very unreasonable lengths to make sure you regret it This I swear. And if you've ever played Settlers of Catan with me, you'll know I'm not lying.
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Well..... Crap. Keeping the tineye was like the one piece of mechanical analysis I actually bothered to give. And the investigator role is also absurdly useful, it is the only straight-up alignment cop in the game. I mean, it is less clear that it would have been used in the hands of somebody not online yet, but still. I'm having a hard time picturing a worse set of roles to execute on D1. Didn't LG66 also have a particularly unfortunate D1 execution? See, I was wondering about that. So there is at least some hope of getting a tineye back in the game. I doubt whoever gets the lerasium alloy would be willing to use it for such altruistic purposes, but maybe at least a medallion or spike will give us our PMs back. These are useful items to buy anyway so I can hope we won't be without PMs forever. All I will say about this is, in your analysis it seemed like your vibe for me was more "ambivalent" than "suspicious", so I'm a bit surprised by your decision. So, I see where you're coming from, but I disagree. If you have reason to believe that the current voting is not going to turn out well, then you should act on it. Yeah, it's a paradox to defend somebody on the basis that nobody has been defending them, because then it is no longer the case that they aren't being defended, but... The concern is that eliminators would try to save their teammates, and I know I'm a villager, so at least from where I'm standing, it's still the right decision to defend somebody who is starting to seem like they are more likely to be innocent. It isn't really useful to get a village read on somebody if that person dies. I don't think changing your mind sometimes undermines the seriousness of a vote, or at least it doesn't undermine it very much. If my vote for experience had been received differently, there is a very real chance I might have kept pursuing their execution. Not to put too fine a point on it, but I believe the outcome of today's execution could have been averted if people had been willing to risk pursuing alternatives to the 2 or 3 bad choices for the execution that were in the lead. Because nobody seemed all that jazzed about exing experience, it just seemed like a better choice than Matrim or Ventyl, but not really a good choice. Sometimes being willing to change your vote is a good thing. I have probably another post or two worth of quotes worth to get through but I am submitting this post which is probably already like 400 words.
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You might be surprised by how often something like this is considered. The first order issue is that it requires everyone to agree on this course of action, which I have personally never seen happen in games where no voting minimum exists. The underlying concern is that a lack of a D1 execution tends to just make D2 end up feeling like a D1 vote, without much information but now with one less villager due to the elim night kill. High five we have the same time zone. And potentially the same aversion to waking up before 7am I mean, for what it's worth, I am unaware of anyone actively coordinating voting from within PMs. But there is definitely a lot of random conversations going on in there, and the contents of these random conversations occasionally become relevant. But yeah when in doubt, and I am definitely still a bit confused about the whole Ventyl thing, I'm planning on just basing voting decisions on the stuff I can see in the thread, and just assuming that whatever is happening in PMs will make its way into the thread if it's really important. I am kind of tempted to start on a mechanical analysis of each role or something, in a shameless attempt to grub for boxings but also because apparently nobody has done that yet and usually that is a thing people seem to do on D1.
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I was really confused because I kept mentally translating vil = evil but then I realized vil = village But anyways, the presence of yet another reads list on D1 is a good sign. Enough posts like this and we can hopefully connect dots about possible elim teams later on in the game. I prefer the term "educated shot in the dark" to describe my votes, but the principal is much the same. But on the subject of voting philosophy and killing, I mean this in the nicest way possible but Araris. I have more or less three reasons for doing this: Earlier you said something along the lines that if the votes don't change much as we approach the end of the cycle, it is more likely that the folks with votes are village. More recently, you said you are happy with both Experience and Matrim as possible exes. But to me it pretty much looks like the votes have been on those two and are staying there, which would imply that we will have better luck looking elsewhere, if I am following your own reasoning correctly. What gives? I am still slightly suspicious of the remark that seems to assume that vote manipulation would only help the village, which seems like a potential instance of TMI, like if elim!Araris knows his team does not have access to vote manips. I'm becoming less in favor of the experience vote than I was. I suppose I would somewhat prefer it to Matrim, but, I'm not above trying something else first. I would invite others to either consider joining me or make the case that I should change my vote.
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Wait really? Hmmm that sounds like it would be a fun game.
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I feel your pain, I really do. It's not a feature you would usually care about that much in other parts of the shard, but yeah I definitely find myself wanting to edit in quotes sometimes when playing SE. It just no longer includes their name and timestamp of the post you are quoting, nor will it notify them that they have been quoted. I would tend to agree. I would also tend to agree with this. Procrastinators, unite!!! tomorrow What fell magicks are you using to create a cast iron pan that is made of aluminum??? If you wanna wear an eye-searing copypasta amazing technicolor dream coat, fine, but this, this is just the last straw My suspension of disbelief is ruined forever. Okay, what the heck is going on. @Ventyl are you trying to get people to vote for you? ...why? Opportunistic seems like a fairly apt description of that vote, yes. Idk because sometimes villagers can be opportunistic too, but the vote does kinda feel weird. Hooray!! I love graduating Yeah I was gonna say, I initially thought it was you who said the thing that got Biplet voted for Then it turned out Biplet also said a similar thing, and technically you never implied Ventyl had secretly read the thread or whatever which was the stated reasoning for Ventyl's vote, so I decided not to say anything. I feel this on a spiritual level. Yes you are more likely to earn some amount of boxings by bandwagoning, but the earnings are spread amongst every person you bandwagoned with. Whereas if you push for a new target with fewer votes, you could split their boxings among fewer people, and therefore get more shiny moneys. So I think the expected value of bandwagoning or not bandwagoning is roughly the same, with the difference being that refusing to bandwagon is a higher risk and higher reward proposition. I mean, you aren't really getting in any extra scans by using a pulser ability, you are just delaying them. But yes in general roles that manipulate action economy have the potential to be really effective in some circumstances. Hrm. Aight well I'll defer to the folks you had PMs with to make sense of that. Anyone you would rather execute than experience? Because fair warning I might not keep my vote parked on experience for the rest of the cycle. Two whole pages have happened since I made that vote
