DrakeMarshall

I know, right? You'd think people would have learned their lesson about bandwagonry last cycle

Am I? I straight up murdered Zelda-TJ. I also straight-up murdered Araris and Illwei, if that counts for anything. I would assume the eliminators straight up murdered Dannex. They were confirmed village.

If Zelda had actually scanned me, and was actually planning to release that information through an intermediary a turn later, why would they vote on me. That would be completely counterproductive to Zelda's goals. I forgot about items being impossible to pass rip yeah we've probably lost anyways tbh Wheeeeeeeee all aboard the Drake train then The last stop is coming up

well fart I'm pretty sure I just lost us the game That.. was not what I expected Lotta folks are wondering if there's a Knight in the game who redirected Link's kill. I'm sorry to say there isn't. Think about it. A second Knight wouldn't be remotely balanced. On the eliminator team it lets them redirect Link's kills back to villagers with a decent level of accuracy, which largely invalidates the point of Link. On the village team it's a third village protect role, technically a fourth or a fifth protect role if you count the Durians that Beedle supplies which I personally would count, likely balanced against just a single eliminator strongman kill. This is probably going to be hard to swallow, but I'm Link. This is why I was not concerned about dying last night. I expected I could kill a third eliminator at least before being forced to claim to the thread, or that I would get lucky and have a PM with Dannex and explain things to them, or something that wasn't.. this. Apparently not. I can't provide much evidence for my claim, except that the Link kills have consistently targeted my top suspicion every night and literally nobody else's, and that I am not dead right now which otherwise makes very little sense. I was trying to stay in the zone where the elims would try to exe me instead of kill me, since I didn't get Durian and I was pretty sure the protect roles would (rightfully) be guarding Zelda, but that really doesn't seem to be working out right now. In short, I'm pretty sure we've went from winning the game to losing it in a single cycle....... because I don't see a way out of this that doesn't involve claiming, and I'm pretty sure there isn't another protect role in the game, so no matter what the elims will kill me tonight. Still, I hold out some small amount of hope that I'm wrong about there being no more protective roles, or that for some reason somebody has a Durian they haven't eaten yet, or.. something. The odds are heavily against us here but I'm not quite ready to give up completely. For what it's worth my prime suspicion rn is Szeth if anyone cares who my suspicions are at this point. I was right about Araris, at least, but I'm pretty sure the events of last turn overshadows that a bit. Edit: i have an objection

I reiterate, I am not a Yiga. I am a traveler in a green hat selling you overpriced bananas.

Probably because we were all busy having an informal contest to see who could sus TUO the hardest Is it? The right village gambit at the right time can accomplish quite a bit.

smh I have to explain everything myself I think the probability of evil!Zelda claimer is practically nil and you should think so too I was confused for a moment but the only possible explanation is that Dannex is pretending to have a scan result because they are sure enough that I'm evil to try and bait me into outing myself. Which tbh would have probably worked if I was indeed evil so I'm not gonna say it was a bad idea. @Dannex where are you

Uh, no? No I don't think so. Not a bad trick, though. Almost as good of a real scan, in fact.

If you agree that those posts were suspicious, then I'm not sure why you take issue with my finding them suspicious Interesting, you seem to be right that passing items is not something that actually comes up in the rules.

Sure, here you are: Everyone is voting for TUO again I find this state of affairs very disappointing Archer finds my disappointment disappointing whereas TJ and Steel don't but are voting for me for other reasons Tani is claiming they want to be voted up, to varying degrees of convincingness Or to summarize in another way: Vote Tally The Unknown Order (7): Archer, Ashbringer, Dannex, Tani, YeetAroundABush, attic_gremlin, quillinthestars DrakeMarshall (2): Steeldancer, |TJ| Tani (1): DrakeMarshall I recommend you read though, if you can dig up the motivation. It's only 1.5ish pages.

Describing tones specifically is kind hard, but the relevant difference I would say is "less game solvey" than usual. A lot more of your posts seemed focused on other things. Which is not inherently bad, but compared to my understanding of your playstyle, I would call it alignment indicative. I think I've commented about this before but idk. I am inclined to believe you on that particular count. So here is the particular comment that stuck out as elimmish: My issue here is that, like, I'd get it if you were saying "be cautious of IKYK" or "I think Illwei was actually lying" or anything along those lines but that isn't how this reads. It feels much more like you are genuinely just trying to devalue analysis from a dead eliminator, or at least that particular analysis (which incidentally was Ashbringer trying to figure out who might have told Illwei to kill Kas, which didn't narrow things down that much but then I don't think every player on that list actually would have suggested something like that), which I don't think is a great look. TJ did you read this I don’t think my read is particularly unexplained? I named D1 posts I found questionable from you, and specifically why they seemed questionable. If I had that much more of an explanation than “gut” to go off of I’d probably have voted for you on cycles after D1 by now, but I don’t and haven’t... Is there a reason you feel sufficiently threatened from appearing on my suspicion list to justify a vote? Mhm I'm contrary like that sorry not sorry I don't really have any proof for this, but FYI I kinda predicted eliminator Rhoam before the game started This was based on the fact that we know several confirmed village and eliminator roles and some conjecture about what roles it would actually make sense to give to eliminators, and also some thoroughly shaky conjecture from the signup thread introduction about the Yiga "being able to impersonate anyone." By far the most important roles are Mipha, Zelda, and Link. And Mipha is dead. I could maybe see a case for Urbosa staying protected, but otherwise, yes, I think a decent chance of eventually getting a Durian to Zelda/Link is more valuable than protecting whatever other roles we have. Remember that we literally can't lose if Zelda and Link are still alive, and that the elims probably don't have a means to deal with protects since that was literally what Kohga was for, and that if this process keeps happening the odds are actually pretty good that a Zelda or Link will get at least one Durian. It also runs the risk of putting Durian in the hands of eliminators if people's trust reads are off base, but if somebody survived an attack in this way it would kinda implicate them regardless. I appreciate that you are putting thought into this beyond just the TUO train this cycle, in any case. You get some village points in my book. Ok, but saying an elim might do something isn't good enough. Do you think it is actually more likely that elim!Drake would do that than village!Drake? Because I'm pretty sure it's actually the opposite. Idk do you think Illwei was in any real danger at that point? I kinda don't. My main concern was conslidating the vote, which was still very scattered quite a ways into the cycle. It certainly didn't help that Araris was being less aggressive than usual about applying pressure in the votes. I mean, I don't dispute that one of us is probably indulging in stretched reasoning Also apparently a TJ vote is going nowhere so there isn't much point in keeping it, even if the TUO bandwagon weren't apparently a foregone conclusion. People are saying they trust TJ, and I also don't necessarily want to discount that, but then someone please tell me why because I still don't right now. Tani @Tani. My reasons are thus: They switched their vote back onto TUO after making the self-vote, which to me makes it seem rather less likely that the request was in fact sincere. They were in the running for the execution last cycle, and then the pressure quickly backed off of them quickly. Quickly enough to make me suspect people were defending them. They are probably the best intersection available to me between "people I suspect to a significant degree" and "people others might actually vote for"

Where elims are concerned coincidences are rare, but that does not say as much about alignment as you seem to be suggesting. Basically, my reasons for thinking TJ is a better bet for the exe are: Their tone in the D1 discussion felt very different than usual imo It sorta stuck out to me that TJ said they always do a PM with Kas and Illwei, and IIRC only really asked for a PM with one of those players in this game Kinda feels like they were trying to downplay / devalue analysis of things Illwei had said but idk I'm not as sure about this as I'd like to be, but I'm more sure about it than I am about TUO. Agreed. @Dannex I am going to assume you would have passed it on if Zelda had scanned an eliminator. I reiterate some of what I said in our PM: In theory, I could get behind TUO being in the running for the votes. The reasoning against them might prove accurate, and while they aren't my top suspicion at all they definitely aren't on my trust reads either. But the train on them feels... Exaggerated, I guess? I'm not sure if that's the right way to describe it but it doesn't feel to me like a train that is bound for success. Tell me true, do you seriously think it will be? I'm literally the only one defending TUO, after two dead eliminators defended TUO, and even TUO hasn't showed up to defend themselves. There should be enough elims still out there to defend TUO if they wanted to, and by your own theory it seems like they would want to. It feels like y'all who aren't evil are letting yourselves focus all on one thing. I will apologize for opposing this only if it turns out I'm wrong

Neat. One for two isn't bad, and for the record I definitely called it about King Rhoam being evil. Losing Mipha kinda sucks though. I'm going to suggest that if you have a Durian and you aren't Zelda or Link, maybe pass it to someone you think is one of those roles? Idk it should increase our chances of denying the elims their win condition. I'm wary of this, honestly. I guess it's possible, but idk I don't really see Araris bluntly defending a teammate like that. I mean, people are going to vote for who they suspect. I'm not going to vote for you just because you asked I don't suspect you that much. Like, if you sincerely want to withdraw from the game (which would be sad but yeah sometimes other stuff has to take priority), you can very much do that without voting yourself up, which would only be harmful to whoever your faction is. and if the request wasn't sincere then well we'll cross that bridge when we get to it Unless I'm mistaken it doesn't seem likely that people would follow me on Steel so for now I'm gonna try TJ.

I'm sorry but no. Explaining new reasons for a vote a cycle after it happened is not accepted by me I can remember like three or four different times I've seen people do that and all of them were evil

I agree with not wanting Stick to die, it's just that it kinda seems like you stated that this wasn't what you expected the vote to accomplish, when you voted...

Hmmmm. So, I kinda don't think that's what you said when you cast the vote? At the time you cast the vote it wasn't super likely it would save Stick, and you even acknowledged this when you voted. You don't? Again I've played like 2-ish cycles with Illwei ever so maybe my take on their playstyle is missing things, but I kinda disagree.

My concern is largely with what you stated you were trying to accomplish with that vote. I mean, if I was in a doc with Illwei and I saw a post like that, I figure I'd have asked people or whatever to see what was going on. Idk wouldn't you?

Wheee I love surprise bandwagons that develop while I'm asleep. Of those votes, Archer's was by far the most understandable. Devotary and Matrim less so, and while I'm obviously biased on the topic I'm having a hard time not flagging Matrim's post in particular as a tad disingenuous. not gonna complain if it gets me scanned sooner though Anyways in those cases where a reason was given, the main one seems to be that I am being connected with Illwei, yes? Because I think there are some things that should hint that I'm probably not on a team with Illwei. One way or another, I am pretty sure I would've had some idea of what was going on with Illwei's copypasta posts, which.. I very didn't. I'm not sure I woulda even read it as village in that case. Also, if we were on a team, we would've been making pretty minimal effort to distance, since the game started. The main thing here is that if you want to say we made some kind of plan to do this (which, honestly, is probably something I might do), it seems pretty unlikely for an eliminator team to be in agreement on something like that and be able to execute it right out of the gates. But honestly I am almost as concerned by the reasoning behind the Stick vote. In a game of this size, there is a lot of "null" space to hide in, and in an exe between two villagers the elims could pretty safely just... not intervene. I kind of want to look at the non-voters or the people who didn't place their vote somewhere it was likely to have influenced things. Particularly Araris, who is usually quite opposed to that sort of thing. But also Szeth, honestly (I know they weren't really online later in the cycle but idk I feel like they were usually not that shy about dropping a vote in LG77 even so). That is all.

Hello again. buckle up because im celebrating not having to post in 200ish word chunks anymore @Kasimir I just want to say I take back anything I may have ever said about being sad over your death. You know why Also, why the beans are we executing Stick? Like, I was legit pretty heckin suspicious of them last cycle, but their response was... Pretty villagery, to me. Like, I have a hard time picturing a genuine eliminator having such a chill response to a TMI accusation, but idk. I'm also not seeing a whole lotta defense apart from my own. Anyways, I have a handful of additional posts I want to reply to, and then a bit of analysis, and then of course there is voting! IIRC last night you said I was in that sweet spot moreso than Tani. Is there a reason you are backing off on that? So I disagree with both of you guys I mean, I'm pretty sure Illwei was angling for a misex somewhere down the line because if LG77 is any indication they don't find it hard to elim read me. But for folks that aren't me, I don't think I would find such an interaction strongly alignment indicative, if it was someone else who was the subject of this post. I mean, I expected claiming Zelda as a village play. It's a sound way to bait out the Kohga kill. Since Illwei was the first and I had a hard time finding a motive other than baiting out the Kohga kill, that felt like a village move to me. Apparently not. In retrospect, the fact that it was on D1 probably should have tipped me off. A serious attempt to bait out the Kohga kill should have been on like D2 or D3 ish. Village points for being the first person to actually go back and read through and analyze all of Illwei's past posts. Right, I remember a thing I wanted to say. How Illwei responded to you using the terms "goodie" and "baddie" really felt to me like you two were meeting the first time, ie you hadn't spoken in a doc previously. Village points for you! Well I have a pretty strong basis for believing at least one of those reads is mistaken, but hey probably same for my reads. Now, you seem to be implying that my distancing skills would be transparent I am offend! Very offend! My distancing skills are simply The Best, end of story they definitely don't involve murdering teammates without their consent anyone who told you I sometimes do that is slandering me Drake no like this vote I am pleased to have a fellow advocate of tied votes back in the game for some reason people here don't seem to like them as much these days. Wait wait wait are you also a disciple of tied votes? But real talk, probably not a great look to defend Tani because you apparently think I'm e/e with them but tbh this vote feels very counterwagony. Which, is fine, I mean I definitely likes me a good counterwagon and I'm not a huge fan of the Stick vote, but... I find it a wee bit sus that you apparently aren't basing your vote on any kind of comparison to Stick, when arguably defending Stick is at least half of what your vote accomplished. It always be like that. I wouldn't worry too much about people alluding to past games or known playstyles, these are occasionally useful tools for analysis but they are one of many in your toolbox Alright, enough of my quotenotes, so now l give you an updated reads list, absolutely context free guaranteed! unless you ask i suppose It's only been a cycle but I feel like a lot has changed: Color Key Village Read Slight Village Read Very Slight Village Read Neutral / No Read Very Slight Elim Read Slight Elim Read Elim Read Player List Matrim's Dice The Unknown Order Ashbringer Azmine_king Archer Dannex Szeth_Pancakes Steeldancer Araris Valerian kaylakrue |TJ| Devotary of Spontaneity _Stick_ Jondesu Alvron DrakeMarshall Random Bystander WhiffleWaffles attic_gremlin YeetAroundABush purplewhiteandgold Tani quillinthestar Basically, I have reasons to trust Ashrbringer, Whiffle, and Dannex now, and I distrust Szeth and Araris. I also took back my trust on Tani and replaced it with something more ambivalent, although I still have misgivings about both the Stick and the Tani vote honestly. I'm inclined to keep my reads on Steel and Stick, if partially because I figure some of my D1 reads had to be correct. Feels like a monty hall problem kinda thing but idk I never took a stats class for some reason. Anyways new and improved tallybot activate! this way I can pretend it worked the first time and that I didn't almost hit submit on a vote tally that registered votes on players who aren't playing this game Vote Tally _Stick_ (5): Ashbringer, Matrim's Dice, Steeldancer, Tani, purplewhiteandgold Szeth_Pancakes (2): WhiffleWaffles, DrakeMarshall Tani (2): Alvron, Archer Steeldancer (1): Jondesu DrakeMarshall (1): |TJ| |TJ| (1): _Stick_ Ashbringer (1): Araris Valerian In conclusion, I would like to try voting for Szeth @Szeth_Pancakes for now. I am open to being convinced otherwise, but will mainly only be convinced by one of the other two names I put in orange seeming like a more viable wagon or I suppose if Szeth wants to explain their thoughts more but nah that would probably never work If it comes down to it I'd rather see Tani get exed than Stick but if you're like me and don't particularly like either votes this is the third option I am suggesting. Sorry Szeth if I'm wrong but this feels like it would be a more useful vote.

Right, down to business. Considering the amount of information that got released last cycle, I'm thinking we have the tools at hand to make this a better than average D2, yeah? Do you mean V/E? Bc otherwise, this doesn't work. Which... I feel like a villager would be a lil more likely to catch that but idk. I don't suppose you have any reasons of your own to provide? If not than fine, it's sometimes valid to side with another player's reasoning, but it's also... Easy. I mean, some of that was probably due to vote tally confusion But yeah Araris didn't feel quite as stabby on D1 which is interesting A priori, the expected probability for a player to be an eliminator in a normal game is about 20%. I guess it's sorta helpful to say there has to be an eliminator in a certain set, bc then it raises the chances of one of those peeps being evil slightly over 20%, but it's not... Let's just say I wouldn't find it a valid reason to cast a vote. I mean, you kinda were in LG77, but then again we all were once the evils all outed themselves tbh this line reads kinda more suspicious to me than the one everyone was actually calling Szeth on, by like a mile I mean, in my limited time with Illwei I feel like they kinda would just troll peeps, but idk I guess I'll yield to peeps who have played with them more on that Welcome! aight I had a lot more I wanted to get through but gotta go rn hitting post will be back in a bit

I mean, are you saying there wouldn't have been enough people online at the end to overcome a lead of 3 votes? Idk I don't really believe an exe is ever 'locked in' until rollover so personally I'd say it's still worthwhile to try and suggest a better alternative. But then, that didn't really work out for me so maybe I'm not one to talk.

Well then Well then It's almost never too late but ok This is the second time you've said something to the effect about being concerned there is a target on your back, which I'm inclined to read as slightly village. I also have no idea how any of that plan works but le shrug What could possibly be gained from lying about being Beedle? Whether Beedle is a confirmed villager or not is one thing (although it seems to be becoming increasingly likely that they are), but there is no reason to lie about being Beedle regardless. Considering what gets revealed later on in this turn, I want to read this as slightly village. lol Well, this simplifies things. I have an idea or two to capitalize on this... I'm sorry, but you were one of my stronger village reads, and I'm not sure you are anymore This feels... showy... Thank you for your generous donation to the Drake's Immortality Complex fund I can 100% guarantee that you will not live to regret it ^this tbh just sharing reads is good can't let the scanners have all the fun anyways Drake out that was a pretty long post sorrynotsorry

Huh... I'm.. Not sure how to feel about this either. I don't really like these votes. Mayhaps I will regret this but Pyro to Steel I am offend! Why would you do such a cruel thing to my innocent tallybot! Not sussing exactly, but the way you phrased it felt.. Weird. Should I be sus of it?

oh goody

Ooh but that's a lovely high definition picture of coal. This is acceptable Was that the "Death Comes at the End" murder mystery fun?