DrakeMarshall

Seven votes. The alignment flip is a bit more likely than not to be accurate, but not by much. Shrug. Also, Fura is good.

Maybe this time I won't screw up making a last-minute post. As a matter of public record, let it be known that I am about to use the ledgers on Furamirionind. I couldn't make this public before, since I can think of several way the eliminators could throw a wrench in things. But, on the off chance that I die, it could be helpful for this post to be made public now that the cycle is almost done. I think most of you will agree that this was the best possible choice for my scan. I promised Fura I would give the ledger to somebody they would trust, who can confirm that the Bard/Striker/Drake ledger chain is legit. What better choice than Fura herself? I am rather curious why Fura didn't just suggest herself in the first place. To those ends, I would like to know if I can trust Fura. That's about all I have to say for now.

Nah, I’d be down for it. It is a bit of a shame because I already had plans for how to use the ledger, but I can change them.

I liked Alv's defense. And it's also a bit of a turn-off that Alv claimed he had no knives, boxings, or other items to steal. The DrakeMarshmallow "mass murder" hedge fund is in desperate need of financial revitalization after I blew it on a bribery C1, and is currently accepting donations from any and all parties who are interested. That said, I still kind of want to lynch you, Alv. You broke a deal Also, if you did manage to slip the noose twice in a row, I would become very paranoid. I could just scan you, except I have other plans for that ledger. I all but promised Fura I would pass the ledger to a trusted party to validate the Bard/Striker/Drake chain, and I don't think Fura would accept you as a trusted party. I really would have preferred to lynch Rae this cycle, but I don't see that going anywhere, so I'm leaving my vote where it's at.

One of these days, we are going to be on an eliminator team together. And it's either going to be a completely ridiculous failure, or an eliminator victory that goes down in SE history.

Fair enough. I'm not particualarly expecting a consistent playstyle, considering the vast inconsistency of my own, and I'll take this under advisement. I'm not interested in killing you. I kind of told you in PM that I wouldn't pursue that path, at least without a very good reason. I honestly don't know. I agree that it's unlikely that Alv and Rae are both eliminators. But I have enough reason to suspect either of them independently that I'm pretty sure one of them is evil, and if Alv flips innocent, Rae is my next target.

This is very interesting. This suggests that Alv currently may have at least one dagger, as well as that Alv had the Alleyverse dagger and used it. @Alvron have you killed anyone so far? Agreement with basically all of this. Except: I have a hard time picturing Fura and Alv on the same team, considering how much Fura is out for Alv's blood. At times in the last cycle Alv had something like 5 votes, in great part due to Fura, and so there was a very real chance they could have died. Re: Bard/Striker/Drake team. Do not conflate my alignment with Bard's, because Bard could easily have reported an accurate scan result and been evil himself. Note that my vote is currently on Bard. If Bard is village, however, that would confirm Striker. And if Striker is village, that would confirm me. However, I have another problem with the viability of a Bard/Striker/Drake team. The work of Striker and myself has pretty clearly helped the village. Striker scanned Lum, and I seem to recall being much more eager to follow up on that lead than you were. Then Striker and I tried to hammer Gaea. I'm actually kind of surprised it hasn't occurred to anyone that we botched that hammer on purpose, but Either of those things would honestly be enough to evade suspicion. I don't believe in using more effort than necessary to accomplish a goal, if my goal was just to become trusted. Any narrative that features Striker and me being eliminators is going to necessarily involve extremely complicated gambits, and while I adore extremely complicated gambits, I don't think I'm nearly that good. If Occam's Razor has any say in the matter, we are both villagers. Also, I'm not interacting only with Striker. I've interacted with you, haven't I? And I've certainly interacted in some capacity with the multitude of players I've suspected. Yeah, sorry. I wanted to get you in on the hammer. I told both Fura and Striker that I wanted to approach you about it. I was 90% sure you were asleep by the time I approached Fura and Striker with the idea, about an hour before rollover. Were you around? I'm going to be kicking myself if you were. Hm. I can't really put my finger on why, but this post makes me suspicious? I think? Wow, you're realling going all-in on Alvron. That's not like you. I respect that you almost always give serious consideration to your doubts. This reminds me more of how you've told me you play eliminator games than of how I've seen you work in the past. But, maybe you're just right. Alvron dodged the lynch. And I have a rule about Alvron dodging the lynch. Alvron has a way of doing that when he's evil. Alvron. I'm conflicted about this, but. Best case scenario we lynch an eliminator. Worst case scenario I have a shot at getting a knife. But I will be clear, if Alvron turns out to be innocent, your actions here look pretty suspicious. The fifth name in our PM is wilson. Wilson is both a constable and in jail. Either of those things on their own would make her untargetable. And how has trying to control what Drake does worked in the past? Don't try it But seriously, I'm asking you to trust me on this one. You don't have to trust in my alignment, just trust that I have good enough judgement to know what I'm doing. I already know who I'm scanning. I believe that my explanation next cycle will satisfy most people. If it doesn't, then you may lynch me. Fifth hasn't been against me or Striker, that I can tell. I've actually been agreeing with a lot of what Fifth has had to say, at least in this game. Fifth didn't participate in the Striker bandwagon. Alongside Striker and me, Fifth tried very hard to lynch Gaea. Also, why should it be public who I am scanning? This sounds like an awfully good reason not to make it public who I am scanning, so that the elims can't just knife them. Why, thank you I still think the chances of a governor being elected in this game are practically nil, with the requirement of a majority vote. It's been a while since that has been a requirement in any games and I think people aren't remembering just how difficult it is to reach that kind of consensus. But, why not try. Drake. Yeah, I can't really blame you for having an elim gut-read on Striker. I have an elim gut read on Striker. I said some of Striker's posts set off alarm bells for me. I still trust Striker unequivocally at this point. Other news, my primary suspect is still Rae, for lynching Joe, for fitting the bill perfectly for bussing Lum not to mention not being concerned about raising the probability that Lum flipped incorrectly, and for generally being one of the only remaining players I don't have a reason to trust. I am also suspicious of Devotary, although I do not have a very compelling explanation for it at this point. That is all. Congratulations for reaching the end of this wall of a post.

*incoherent roars of rage* Ten measly seconds and I would have pulled it off This is exactly what I was trying to prevent, the elims buying the lynch on the wrong constable. Ah well. I tried. It's after midnight here so g'night. Edit: Right, this reminds me, before I go to sleep: Bard. I'm still suspicious of you. I also don't like this vote on Alv which seems like a really easy next step for an elim. I apologize if I'm not particularly articulate in my reasoning at the moment.

This is simultaneously saddening and hilarious. ...and we should probably stop posting, yep.

I would say that you could/should have agreed to help us, but it might be moot, considering our completely terrible timing Also, it's not too late to make 8 pages!!

Yeah XD I wasn't watching the clock closely enough I guess

...and surprise! I do want to lynch a constable. I just don't want to give the eliminators any chance of doing anything about it. I said from the start I was scared of vote manips. This could blow up or go south, but then again, maybe it will pay off. Gaea.

Two can play that game. Wild theory. You are going to kill Rae, and then try to lynch me. I already said I would take responsibility for Rae's death so I don't know why else you would need to state that you plan to hold me responsible. You said if Rae dies you will lynch me. You never said anything about if Rae dies and flips village. In effect, for some reason you are very confident that Rae will flip village if she dies. Now, maybe that's just a villager who is so confident in their read that they won't consider the alternative, but maybe not. I dunno, I like my wild theory better than yours, Bard.

Have another tally for page 7. Vote Tally Alvron (3): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZ Ark1002 (3): Alvron, Arraenae, Furamirionind Arraenae (2): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine xxGaea (1): Fifth Scholar little wilson (1): Araris Valerian

Kind of, yeah. I don't like any of the other lynches, and I will take responsibility if somebody bribes the vote on Rae and they end up being innocent. Why wait for later cycles? We have 3 more pages to write in the last 20 minutes if we want to hit double digits! I find this post highly suspicious and think we better put Bard in the tied vote just to be safe.

Vote Tally Alvron (4): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZ, Young Bard Ark1002 (3): Alvron, Arraenae, Furamirionind Arraenae (2): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine xxGaea (1): Fifth Scholar little wilson (1): Araris Valerian Yeah, this last second storm of voting just feels crazy and I think probably you are all elims I'm not really seeing any reason to lynch Alvron, so no can do. Also, why would Alvron retract a vote that makes it easier for him to be killed?

You are missing Elbereth's vote on Alv. Vote Tally Alvron (3): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZ Arraenae (2): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine little wilson (2): Alvron, Araris Valerian Ark1002 (1): Furamirionind xxGaea (1): Fifth Scholar As it is, Alvron stands to be lynched, and I don't really understand why we're lynching Alv. EDIT: Okay, there are officially too many vote tallies This is almost more confusing than not enough of them

Oh, right, that would work. Still not something the eliminators are likely to start with very many of, but this is a fair point. Also, what the heck is happening to the lynch. I'm confused.

Vote Tally Alvron (3): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZ Arraenae (2): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine little wilson (2): Alvron, Araris Valerian xxGaea (1): Fifth Scholar Furamirionind (1): Furamirionind Done Edit: Ninja'd. Twice. Oof. Edit2: Does my script seriously not have Fura in it? Fixed.

Well, since you mentioned me... It's debatable whether it is actively detrimental (I'm not sure I agree with the hypothesis that the eliminators would target people holding items, since they will have to reveal themselves by voting on their targets if they want to prevent the items from just passing to a different villager), but I don't actually think it matters in this case. It's human nature to do the same kinds of things that you've done before, and at least to me that is a far more probable explanation for why somebody would do something, that has nothing to do with alignment.

Personally, I'm not advocating we wait because I think new evidence will come to light (although, there's a small chance it will). I just want more time to think. Having time to think about things for a while is very underrated in QFs. There's a reason why elims have noticeably worse win rates in LGs than in QFs. That was one of my first questions to Joe. He said there are no secrets. EDIT: I had forgotten about my vote tally script. Useful stuff. Vote Tally Arraenae (3): DrakeMarshmallow, RayOfSunshine, StrikerEZ xxGaea (2): Elandera, Fifth Scholar little wilson (1): Araris Valerian

Thank you. I currently suspect you but I would much prefer to hear out your response.

Sheev chuckled. "I'll let you know if I see anyone like that." "It's true, leecher bodyguards are criminally expensive. Easily triple the price of a trusty veteran hazekiller to get a good one, but worth every boxing. I found this fellow, a Terrisman with twin gifts of chromium and electrum, who I wouldn't trade for anything."

Even a lead of two votes isn't enough to safeguard against a single bribe, which could still turn it into a tie. The ability to change a vote as opposed to just cancel it is rather powerful, effectively equivalent to being able to cast three votes in most cases. And the eliminators can very likely field more than one bribe if they have a mind to. Come to think of it, this is very probably a big part of what makes up for the elim team lacking a kill. Conversely, if we have a big enough lead in votes on one of the constables that it is not susceptible to vote manipulation, that probably just means we are lynching the constable the eliminator team wants. Either way, it costs the elims something to protect their constable, but it also costs us something. It costs the village a lynch, and the loss of either PMs or the black market, and the potential to make the unreliable alignment flips into a permanent thing. I don't think that's a very good trade unless we are pretty confident about knowing who the corrupt constable is. ^this. Aside from ledgers, I can't think of a way to discover the responsible parties for bribery. If there was, I would be much more supportive of lynching a constable ASAP.

I think it's just that all of our characters are equally manipulative and selfish Also, I edited in a response to your RP in my earlier post.