DrakeMarshall

This goes doubly if you are a coinshot trying to decide who to kill. It's all in the name

Well played, folks. Village, I think we had our good moments, even if we never lynched any evils Shout out to Sart for blocking the elim's first serious attack (not biased at all by the fact that it was specifically saving me, no siree) and to Fura for sending a really good infodump PM before dying (even if I carried it with me to the grave not long after). If nothing else, we had one of the better dead docs Also, sorry Ark. Kandra!Aonar, you did good. Even in the dead doc you had us stumped for quite some time. I'm also quite impressed that you got people to buy a coinshot claim, even with role analysis in this game being of questionable value. Elims, what a beautiful execution. This is really the kind of defeat that makes me want to try again all the more. And lastly a big thanks to our GMs. Keeping these things running smoothly is a lot of work.

So I was talking about these mechanics in a dead doc, which I worked on a while ago without a particular setup in mind, and said I would share them. This is designed to be an all-encompassing coverage of Scadrian mechanics. The idea is that some subset of powers could be chosen to craft different setups for multiple games. It's definitely a work in progress. Some of this stuff is likely broken. And possibly a little too fiddly for anything short of an LG. But I figure somebody might still be able to make use of it. If I ever make a more polished version, I'll post that, too (either in here or as part of a signups thread ). Without further ado, here: Some terminology: Slotless: Shorthand for "not requiring an action". Enhancement Stack: There's a lot of different things that can heighten the effects of powers (allomantic nicrosil, allomantic duraluminum, feruchemial nicrosil, hemalurgy), so every allomantic and feruchemical power has an enhancement level, and has different behavior at higher enhancement levels. Some remarks on balance: Certain synergies of abilities are extremely powerful. Especially if a player can access multiple outside sources of enhancement at once. Balance accordingly. It should go without saying, but compounding is extremely powerful just like it is in the books. Balance accordingly. Any setup can be fine-tuned by changing the number of charges allomancers get and the number of maximum charges feruchemists get. METALS Allomancy: Actions tend to be powerful, but start out with only a small number of charges, and it's generally quite difficult to get more charges. Enhanced effects are dramatic but prone to having side effects which may be undesirable if you do not expect them. Iron- Specify a single target. No self-target. All actions targeting them are redirected to user. User passively survives a single attack while burning. Enhanced: Passively survive two attacks. Additionally redirects target's action to self. Enhanced x2: Passively survive all attacks, including unstoppable ones. Action cannot be roleblocked. Steel- Specify a single target. No self-target. Attack target. Attack cannot be detected using Allomantic or Feruchemical Tin. Enhanced: Attack target twice, but the massive recoil cancels the user's vote. Enhanced x2: Attack becomes unstoppable, user becomes untargetable. Tin- Specify a single target. Learn the identity of all those who target the target. Enhanced: Additionally, learn all those who target self, but the lists are lumped together. Enhanced x2: Additionally, learn what actions were taken as a seperate list. Pewter- Slotless. Gains a passive extra life while burning. May take an action to attack a player, losing a life in the process. Enhanced: Gains 2 extra lives, and a double attack (which costs both extra lives to use). Enhanced x2: Gains three extra lives. User is roleblock-immune. Copper- Slotless. Specify two targets. Targets and user all gain immunity to non-enhanced zinc, brass, and bronze. Enhanced zinc/brass/bronze can still pierce the coppercloud, losing one enhancement stack in the process. Enhanced: Anybody who targets user or targets is also affected by coppercloud. Can block zinc/brass/bronze of a single enhancement level, and deducts two enhancement levels from anything that still pierces it. Enhanced x2: Copperclouds cannot be pierced by any level of enhancement. Zinc- Specify a source and destination. No self-target. Redirect source's vote to destination. Enhanced: Additionally redirect target's action. (also pierces unenhanced copperclouds) Enhanced x2: Redirected votes count for double. Enhanced x3 (only possible if target is spiked): Target is converted to user's alignment and gains a permanent PM with user. Brass- Specify two targets. No self-target. Cancel targets' votes. Enhanced: Additionally cancel targets' actions. (also pierces unenhanced copperclouds) Enhanced x2: Roleblock may block unblockable actions. Enhanced x3 (only possible if target is spiked): Target is converted to user's alignment and gains a permanent PM with user. Bronze- Specify a target. Learn what type of action they take. Additionally learn what types of action target your target, but the lists are lumped together. (also pierces unenhanced copperclouds) Enhanced x2: Fully role-scan target even if they did not take any action, and identify which action was the one they took if the scan reported multiple actions. Cadmium- Specify a single target. Affects the user, target, and anybody who targets either. The actions of effected inviduals take place on the following cycle (bendalloy and cadmium excluded), during which effected individuals cannot take other actions. Cancels with Bendalloy. Enhanced: Cancels unenhanced Bendalloy without being canceled in turn. Delay lasts two cycles. Enhanced x2: Cancels enhanced Bendalloy without being canceled in turn. Cancels the votes of effected individuals for duration of effect. Bendalloy- Slotless. Specify a single target. All actions against user and target by outside sources will fail, and user and target may only target each other. Cancels with Cadmium. Enhanced: Cancels out unenhanced Cadmium without being canceled out in turn. Gain a PM with target for the cycle. Enhanced x2: Cancels out enhanced Cadmium without being canceled out in turn. Gain doc communications with the target for the cycle. Gold- User learns what types of actions targeted them on a specified past cycle. Enhanced: User learns what types of actions targeted them on a specified past cycle and the cycle before it, but they are not distinguished. Grants immunity to alignment change while burning. If alignment was different on either cycle you asked to look at, reverts to previous alignment. Enhanced x2: User learns what types of acctions targeted them on a specified past cycle and the two cycles before it in one massive infodump. Electrum- Self-protect. If user is attacked, they identify what kind of attack targeted them. Enhanced: Self-protect against two attacks. Cancels user's vote. Enhanced x2: Avoid all actions targeting user, identify the types of all actions targeting user. Chromium- Specify a single target. No self-target. Roleblocks target, while still expending any charges they attempted to use. Enhanced: Consume two charges of target's ability instead of one. Enhanced x2: Block unblockable actions. Nicrosil- Enhance target's action. No self-target. Enhanced: Applies enhanced x2 to target's action, but causes them to use up an additional charge. Enhanced x2: Increases efficiency, no longer uses up an additional charge. Aluminum- Slotless. Nullify zinc, brass, copper, and bronze effects on self. Prevents user from using other allomantic powers on the same cycle. Enhanced: Additionally nullify cadmium, bendalloy, iron, and F. Duraluminum, but remove a single charge from any other allomantic powers user owns. Enhanced x2: User may not take any actions but is untargetable by allomancy or feruchemy. Duraluminum- Slotless. Self-enhance. Enhanced: Applies enhanced x2, but causes user to use up an additional charge. Enhanced x2: Increases efficiency, no longer uses up an additional charge. Feruchemy: Player begins with a certain number of maximum charges for ability. May spend action storing to gain charge (unless otherwise specified, the action of storing a charge has no mechanical effect beyond gaining one feruchemical charge). May spend additional charges to add additional enhancement stacks. Enhancement abilities tend to have less potentially undesirable side effects. Tapping is slotless, but any actions gained from tapping are not. Iron: Gain redirect immunity and enhance iron/steel. Enhanced: Roleblock immunity. Enhanced x2: Actions go first in OOA, taking precedence over every other effect listed, even those that are supposed to trump unblockable actions (yes, enhancement levels generally make action priority extremely complicated) Steel: Gain additional action. Enhanced: Gain two actions. Enhanced x2: Gain three actions. Tin: Gain ability to track one target and who they target visited. Enhanced: Learn the identity of all those who target the target, instead of who the target targeted. Same as non-enhanced allomantic tin. Enhanced x2: Additionally, learn all those who target self, but the lists are lumped together. Same as enhanced allomantic tin. Pewter: Gain attack. Enhanced: Double attack. Enhanced x2: Unblockable attack. Zinc: Gain role or alignment scan (random). Enhanced: Both role and alignment scan. Enhanced x2: Additionally learn who the target targeted on the last cycle. Brass: No effect. Enhanced: Attack all who target user and cancel user's vote. Enhanced x2: Unblockable, unstoppable, redirect immune. Attacks all who target user, and the user themselves, and a single target if user specifies one. Copper: Create a group PM containing up to five people for one cycle. Enhanced: Create a group PM of any size for one cycle. Enhanced x2: Create a doc of any size for one cycle. Bronze: Gain additional night action. Enhanced: Also, passively learn who targets self during night. Enhanced x2: Also gain zinc/brass immunity. Cadmium: Store, gain delayed death. Enhanced: Can delay once-delayed death. Enhanced x2: Survive a lynch. Bendalloy: Store, gain an ability to gain an allomantic charge of something. Enhanced: Additionally resists unenhanced chromium while tapping. Enhanced x2: Gain two allomantic charges of something. Gold: Store, gain extra life. Enhanced: Double extra life. Enhanced x2: Triple extra life. Electrum: Store by canceling user's vote. Spend for user's vote to count double. Enhanced: User becomes immune to unenhanced soothing/rioting. Enhanced x2: User's vote counts triple. Chromium: If the game has much RNG, then the obvious choice is letting chromium force the outcome of an RNG roll. Enhanced effects could do something to the effect of having the GMs choose the more favorable outcome for the chromium-user instead of the chromium-user specifying an outcome. However, I try not to build things that are too reliant on RNG, beyond deciding tied lynches. So I'm not really sure what to put here. Nicrosil: Store, losing access to another ability, tap to enhance stored ability. Enhanced: x2 enhance ability. Enhanced x2: Ability does not consume any charges, but still requires at least one existing charge to use. Aluminum: Store, allowing user to pass (non-aluminum) charges of feruchemy. Tap, no effect. Enhanced: Reverts user to past alignment if converted. Enhanced x2: Resists F. Duraluminum. Duraluminum: Store by canceling a vote from self. Slotless, spend to redirect the vote of whomever's vote was canceled. Enhanced: Slotless, aditionally redirect the action of whomever's vote was canceled. Enhanced x2: Redirect cuts through redirect immunities. Hemalurgy: Hemalurgy is centered around the "hemalurgic spike" item, which may be passed to other players. Hemalurgic Spike: Grants a slotless ability (one player may not attempt to use more than one spike at a time, however). Specify target and desired power to steal. If target dies on that cycle, and possesses the predicted power, spike gains charge. May self-implant to gain power, or gain enhanced version of power if already possessed. The effects of Zinc and Brass are upgraded by one enhancement level for every spike an individual possesses. At four spikes, every cycle you are not protected by coppercloud, aluminum burning, enhanced gold burning, or aluminum tapping, you are converted to the Serial Killer win condition. Compounding: If a player possesses both the allomantic and feruchemical abilities for a metal, they may spend an action burning an allomantic charge and gain three feruchemical charges.

I'm not sure you had a choice. Sart being a lurcher was going to come up soon no matter what happened. You'd look better if you confronted it, sounding like a 100% certain villager, and also managed to take out the village lurcher (who you may not be able to kill otherwise) in the process. Openly supporting the lynch on me wasn't really an option either, because everything before this cycle pointed to you have a strong village read of me, and I don't think I would be the only one who would have called you on that reversal. The degree of confidence is actually a little suspicious. I'd buy 90% sure that Sart is an elim, but 100? You don't strike me as the type to exaggerate needlessly. Except, I think you actually do exaggerate when you're hiding something. When I talked about two lurchers being a possibility, and you were making a show of disagreeing with it in-thread to hide your role, you wondered if a villager has ever blocked two attacks in a row, which I remember sounding pretty out of character. There's also the fact that sheer confidence has obviously netted certain players (Fifth comes to mind) a great deal of trust despite arguably not doing the village very many favors. If I were an evil role in this game, I'd be toying with the idea of exploiting that dynamic right about now. This. I forgot to mention this last cycle, but this is another reason I am suspicious of you. When I log on, Aman and Fifth have been extensively in contact, and Fifth is now fully geared up to lynch me. Fifth is citing Aman's reasoning for why I am evil, meanwhile Aman is making a big show in-thread and in-PM of disagreeing with lynching me despite having provided said reasoning. And is also perfectly content not to suggest an alternative lynch target despite clearly having opinions about other players. It was hard to put my finger on what the discrepency was at first, but it looks an awful lot like Aman was manipulating Fifth while pretending to be opposed to what Fifth was doing. It doesn't help that this happened not very long after I told Aman something to the effect of "I trust your abilities enough that I'd find it fishy if you didn't catch any evils in the next few cycles; I hope that isn't unfair", and this is the response. I suppose the other option is that Aman and Fifth are elim teammates making one last show of distancing, in which case the massive reversal of Aman's read on Fifth makes sense. But I kind of doubt the pair of them are good enough actors that they could be teammates at this point.

Sigh. This feels like a repeat of the last round of voting. Three, if you count mistborn. I don't think the village has 3 protect roles. The third option is that Aman is the SK. I think SK!Aman generally fits a bit better than elim!Aman. I'd wager Aman already has a good explanation ready for why they aren't an elim, and I'm betting it's going to be true.

Wheee I love incorrectly reasoned bandwagons that form on me while I'm not online. As I am no longer under the gun and the cycle is almost up, I'm not going to waste time justifying myself. So, there's a chance that I'm going to fall on the wrong side of history, but... I believe Sart's claim. Here's why: Sart both PMed me claiming lurcher and later announced it in-thread. It's not like he was trying to hide it. I think you may have created that narrative, Aman, because you were able to figure it out before he ever claimed to you, but Sart is not by any stretch of the imagination avoiding accountability here. I highly doubt an eliminator lurcher would expose themselves like that while they had strong evidence of another village lurcher. It's possible that elim!Sart protected both elim!Aman and village!me and is now taking a bullet to clear Aman and get me killed to boot, but that just sounds highly improbable. Sart also told me about Fifth's claim (which by the way, why was Fifth pulling a fake-claim gambit like that one cycle after lynching Furamirionind for doing the exact same thing?). I don't think elim!Sart would tell village!Drake about a claim like that. I know I am village. Sure, a reverse-WGG frame job is possible, but it's seriously unlikely. The only time I can remember it happening, I was the one who did it, and in retrospect I don't think it was even a good idea. Even if you are not me, and do not know that I am a villager, it is very likely that Sart and myself have the same alignment, and it is also very likely that Sart would not have exposed himself if we were both eliminators. Ergo, Sart is very likely to be a villager. Sart's defense frankly sounds both more sincere and less convoluted than the accusations against Sart do. I am more suspicious of Amanuensis. Reasons: I agree that two village lurchers on top of a mistborn sounds highly unlikely. Ergo, if Sart is village, Aman is not. The way Aman has approached lurcher claiming is considerably less direct than Sart, and I believe simplicity and directness plays in the favor of the village 90% of the time. I've thought for a while that Aman could be the SK: They survived an attack on the first night, and is claiming to have protected themselves. There was no kill on the first night, indicating the SK had something better to do. Such as protect themselves. On the second night, Xino was killed. Aman speculated a coinshot kill because it was an attack against an inactive. I find it highly unlikely that there is a village coinshot in addition to a village mistborn, even more unlikely than two village lurchers. There is a much more obvious explanation: Aman is the SK, making the kill on the second night, and Aman is definitely the type to take out inactives. Aman conspicuously did not bring up that they were the type of person who would attack inactives as an SK/eliminator. I do not believe this fact would not have occurred to village!Aman, or that they would have refrained from mentioning it. Aman has been largely ignoring the subject of the SK in the thread. I am pretty sure Aman is good enough that the stuff they do say, will rarely be incriminating. But the things that are left unsaid are more telling. I also tucked a question about SK analysis in a PM with Aman containing several other points, and that particular point was ignored. Not hard evidence, but I think it's fairly indicative that Aman is avoiding the subject of the kandra. This may be a function of time to write posts, but Aman has been changing views about things in a way that seems a bit disingenuous. Notably, one of the only things that has changed today from last night was that an eliminator died, but now Aman doesn't suspect Devotary at all. If I were the SK I would want to keep the elims and village mostly balanced against each other.

Well, I've read all of xino's interactions and there's really not that much to analyze. The only relevant interaction I can see is Aonar expressing what sounds like genuine annoyance at xino evading the inactivity filter like they did. I find it less likely that Aonar is on Xino's team. Devotary. My reasons are already well-known; I was already suspicious of Devotary and furthermore I do not believe last cycle was a V-V lynch.

With a protective role, the only evidence for it you can see is people surviving attacks. Statistically, the more attacks are survived, the higher the probability that there is more than one protector. We have a sample size of three attacks, and 2/3 of them were blocked. A priori, my prediction would be a single lurcher, because of role distribution. This information from this cycle somewhat increases the probability of two lurchers. It's hard to say definitively which is less unlikely, there being a single lurcher who guessed right twice or there being multiple lurchers.

Interesting. I'm not shocked to be the target of an attack. I generally hope for the elims trying to get me lynched instead of attacking me, but the D1 state of affairs may have prevented that. Other news, the lurcher seems to be doing very well, and I am considering the possibility of multiple lurchers in this game. Given that a villager mistborn has already flipped, I am inclined to assume that xinoehp was the kandra's kill. Before I cast a vote, I will be reading all of xinoehp's interactions. But as of right now my suspicions pretty much are the same from yesterday.

I guess one long post responding to everyone doesn't really count as two. Well, this does. While I'm posting: I might as well ask what it is about Straw you find suspicious, because right now I haven't been able to get a read on Straw.

Not really. I'm prepared to defend you with the same force I defended Furamirionind. Not really. It will only make us look good if and when Devotary flips evil. 1. Yes and no. I agree that the human tendency to gravitate towards only 2 options for decision-making is pretty unhelpful. But it also inspires people to take sides, which in this particular context is actually useful. 2. If you had given me this last cycle when I initially asked for it, I would have seriously considered backing off on my suspicion of you. Not really. Aside from not wanting to lynch Fura, I suspected Devotary for specific things she did, such as distancing from the D1 lynch, and specific things she did not do, such as giving evidence for going out of her way to solve the game. That can only be called playstyle insofar as anything somebody does in-game could be chalked up to playstyle. Playstyle can be a mitigating factor (for example I didn't know Fura's playstyle as well in the last game we played together and I tried to lynch her, but now I would like to think I have a better sense of what is normal for her and what isn't), but never a reason to suspect somebody. Not really. I can't remember an SE game where defending somebody like this has made anyone more trusted, and that goes doubly for a lynch between two innocents. I don't think my defending Bard in a similar fashion in the last game scored me any points. I am expecting to net suspicion from defending Furamirionind, I just don't care. You can lynch me if and when Devotary flips village, because I don't think she will. This sounds a tad disingenuous to me. I don't remember you expressing that degree of certainty last cycle. Good catch. Me neither. I guess I'm less cleared than I thought. I wonder why this occurred to you, though. It's a little off the beaten path. Were you looking for a reason to lynch me? Regardless, a thug!drake probably wouldn't want to burn his extra life for no reason, and you might be overestimating my intelligence if you think I could stage a tie to become trusted on the first day. Especially considering how one of the big topics D1 was literally how we would re-lynch thugs, and I even agreed myself that village thugs should let themselves die, meaning that if I was lynched but survived I would still be a guaranteed eliminator to anyone who had their eyes open.

I still think the elims have a hazekiller, and I believe that Fura is a hazekiller, I just don't think Fura is the elim hazekiller. I concede that suspecting Fura for being a hazekiller may be valid, although I personally do not due to the other reasons I gave.

I was interested in Aman’s shift of focus as well, but as you can see Aman is no longer credibly distancing Fura. I am defending Fura, but I am also less likely than most to be an elim after D1, not to mention putting myself out there to defend people is something I am kind of beginning to make a habit of. Given the spread of villagers and elims, I believe it’s much more logical to insist that somebody is village than it is to do the opposite. I can’t speak for Ventyl or Sart, aside from that I have no particular cause to suspect them, and that their votes happened early enough into the cycle that I find it less likely to be a reaction to Fura recieving votes. For what it’s worth, I respect that you are willing to risk it. Me too. I doubt it’ll actually happen, but I’d put myself up for the lynch if I am wrong about Fura. I probably wouldn’t at this stage in the game stake my life on Devotary being evil, unless I was only risking my life and not also staking Devotary’s by lynching them. I doubt you will change your mind, any more than I will change mine. But, maybe think about it? You said you’re in a tunnel and I bet a fresh perspective wouldn’t go amiss even if you are right. Fura may have lied about her role in PMs (she did that to me too, incidentally), but if anything that feels more like a villager’s attempt at a gambit than an eliminator tactic. I struggle to see what an eliminator might gain from such a ploy, and it would almost inevitably net them suspicion for a lie that they couldn’t substantiate with accurate scans and would likely face a counterclaim in the future. EDIT: I think we can agree though that this doesn’t really feel like a V-V lynch? Not that I am at all unhappy with greater levels of activity and participation, but the jump from D1 levels of participation and side-taking to what we have right now is interesting. You are reading my saying “uncertainty is to be expected in a V-V lynch” to mean “villagers act with uncertainty”. My point there was that everyone would act uncertain. Even eliminators would act uncertain because they know at least as well as the villagers that there aren’t any good options. That said, the statement “villagers act with uncertainty”, while not my original statement, is also sometimes correct. It isn’t always the case, for example I believe Fifth is likely a villager in part because they are so certain in their suspicions. More to the point, I am not suspecting you on account of uncertainty. It would be one thing to give me some soft reads and suspicions, things you aren’t sure enough to act on, but things you’ve noticed. What you did was avoid giving me any suspicions the first two times, and then told me you suspected the person who was probably going to get lynched today the third time. I’m sorry, but I find that suspicous. I asked to know your thought process, see how you were trying to solve the game, and you effectively blocked me out. That doesn’t prove that you are an elim, but it does increase the probability considerably.

Yeah, I’m inconvenient like that. I am more in favor of attempting probably inaccurate D1 lynches than Aman is, but I still really don’t like lynching villagers if I can help it, and I think you’re a villager. Other news, between thread and PM I believe I’ve asked Devotary three times now for reads on other players that would be valuable for catching other elims if Devotary were an elim. If they had answered with a concrete suspicion, I probably would have backed off, since willingness to share that info would be a villager move and because that info would be insurance in case Devotary was an elim. I’m not the best at catching elims in the conventional sense but I’m usually decent at spotting a villager once I’ve put them on the spot. What I’m saying is, I’ve been trying to give Devotary lots of opportunities to convince me otherwise and I’m still reading elim. Doubly so for the concerted push against Fura, where I would usually expect a stronger sentiment of uncertainty on a V-V lynch (off the top of my head, I’d suspect Lumgol of protecting Devotary if Devotary is in fact an elim). Sorry if I’m wrong about this but I definitely think lynching Fura is a mistake (can anybody here, considering everything as a whole, point to any particular thing that really incriminates Fura?) and I do maintain my suspicion of Devotary.

So uh. This is the part where I point out that nobody but me is actually defending Furamirionind, and that you all should probably reconsider lynching Fura.

I am of the belief that if many people are unhappy with the lynch, then they should change it. But that's besides the point. Thank you for providing this explanation. Do you believe any of those categories might correlate with alignment? For that matter, what category if any would you place yourself in?

Yeah, I don't really agree with lynching Fura. Mostly because I have a PM with Fura, and after asking them to explain their thought process on some things and their reads, I don't really feel like this is the thought process of an elim. There's also the fact that most of the things Fura is doing that they are being suspected for, are things I suspected village!Fura of in the last MR (which we can now talk about, because it finished). So I'm a bit more inclined to suspect Devotary. Reasons: Rath and Devotary are the two people I found when looking for "people who tried to avoid input on the lynch". I would be pretty surprised if none of the elims were exhibiting this behavior pattern in a village-village D1 lynch. However, Rath's response to my initially raising that point kind of points to their being village (thanks for pointing that out, Fura). I also have a better gut read on Rath. The D1 interaction where Devotary needed to clarify that one post was interesting and kind of odd. I'm not sure I can put my finger on what seemed off in that interaction, because I don't even think the post that Devotary needed to clarify was really all that suspicious, but yeah. There's also the fact that so far Devotary has focused mostly on game analysis and not analysis of people, although I concede that this isn't strongly alignment indicative because there isn't as much to analyze with people yet (it's more that the players who are already analyzing other players seem slightly more village to me).

Well, that was quick. I guess I'm not too surprised somebody attacked Aman, but I expected it would take another cycle or two. They also survived. Possible explanations: The eliminator team perceived Amanuensis as a threat (which is interesting, because there are also a good few players on the shard that would not react by killing a player they deemed someone to watch out for at the first possible opportunity). A village lurcher (or thug!Aman) protected Aman. The eliminators, including Amanuensis, decided to try a WGG, and presumably had a role to do so with. Moreover, I'm pretty interested in the fact that there was only one attack, not more. I doubt the eliminators failed to make a kill. Possible explanations: The SK does not have a kill and thus couldn't make one. Probably because they have infiltrated the eliminator team and meant to rely on the eliminator kill. They are a kandra, after all. The SK has a kill, but they also had a different action they wanted to do instead. This possibility would support my theory of a kandra mistborn. If a mistborn!Kandra wanted to protect themselves on the first night, that could potentially implicate Aman. The SK was inactive, and forgot to submit a kill order. In this case, they will probably die to the inactivity filter soon. The good thing about this possibility is that we'll know if this is true in at least a few cycles. I'll make a definitive analysis later in the cycle but this is pretty much me processing.

People who are trying to keep their heads down, which is what distancing from the lynch entails, don't do what Aman did. More generally, it's just statistics. If so-and-so person always opposes the D1 lynch or just generally doesn't participate in it, it's not really a useful data point to know that they did it in this game too. It's a lot more interesting if somebody is acting hands-off when sometimes they do get involved, and we can wonder why they chose not to this time.

Whoops. Turns out I wasn't online at rollover. Still, if I was online, I wouldn't have changed my vote. I'm rather attached to my own life, and putting me up for the lynch would force my hand. And even if Ark had claimed mistborn, I probably would have been more likely to lynch them because of that (a village role that can pretty much clear themselves of being an eliminator and then subsequently survive attacks just didn't seem all that likely to me, but apparently I was wrong, which is kind of scary if other factions are balanced against that and we don't have our mistborn anymore). So, while it's a pretty bad outcome, I'm pretty sure that would have happened either way. Ark, in PM: "Drake I'm a village mistborn probably keep me alive" Drake, in-thread: "So I feel like lynching Ark today" Think about what you are suggesting. As chance had it, Ark wasn't online after my vote, otherwise they probably would have claimed and probably used pewter to survive. But how do you propose I could have known Ark would never have been online for a good 24 hours? If Ark had claimed mistborn to me in a PM, all it would have taken is for Ark to be online at some point in the next 24 hours to notice that I'm lynching him after he claimed village mistborn to me, and I would be finished. For what you are suggesting to be possible, either Ark or myself would have had to have made a fairly serious error in judgement: Ark by telling me both that he was a village mistborn and that he absolutely would not be around for the next cycle to stop a lynch on him, or me by not considering the massive risks of pulling something like this without a way of knowing Ark wouldn't have been online. Even if Ark had claimed mistborn to elim!Drake in a PM, I could have night-killed him without exposing myself (I would probably wait a cycle in case he was baiting me). Or if the elim team has vote manips (which I think is most likely the case, given 3-4 elims each with a high probability of having some kind of role) that would have been an even safer and more reliable way to do it. For that matter, the fact that vote manips or other voters didn't break the tie to protect me is a strong hint that I'm a villager. Considering that this was a tied lynch between villagers, I am more inclined to suspect the people who distanced themselves from the lynch, kept their head down and hands off, because they were okay with how things were going. (I would hesitate to call consuming half the thread in D1 lynch discussion "keeping one's head down" so I'm not suspecting Aman on account of that, although I wouldn't say it makes Aman more trustworthy either) In other words, I am looking for people who: Were reasonably active last cycle Didn't vote Didn't cite objection to the idea of a D1 lynch as a reason for not voting Don't have a history (that I know of) of avoiding D1 lynches People who could maybe fit that description: Devotary Rath Fura(?) told me they were receptive to the idea of no D1 lynch in a PM so I'm less inclined to suspect Fura for not participating It might've been dumb to start making suspect lists on D1 when there isn't that much criteria yet (so is N1 too early? ), but I'm a firm proponent in the efficacy of suspect lists. It gives other people a lot of information about your connections to other players, and I think it's a pretty good way to catch eliminator teams. It's a shame because I previously had soft trust reads on both Rath and Devotary. Guess that puts them back into neutral read, maybe slightly elim read. I don't think I have much more to comment on, so peace out. Oh look, I got ninja'd by a bunch of people.

Good idea. If you vote on me right now, I'm probably less likely to attract votes about D1 stuff later. They'll never suspect Would it change your mind if I claimed cop?

You're missing at least one... Easy for you to say; when you do come up with somebody to lynch you'll probably be right I'm pretty sure that D1 lynches are somewhat less likely to hit an eliminator than just randomly selecting a player to be lynched. On the one hand, the elims tip their hand by swaying the lynch, but on the other, you're likely to get a mislynch out of it. I generally believe having a D1 lynch in games that allow it is more helpful, but it's going to be a tradeoff either way, without an obviously better choice. (it also can depend on whether you have an odd or even number of eliminators and players in total, due to it influencing when LyLo could happen) When it comes down to it, I don't mind if we don't actually go through with lynching anybody, but I do think the intent to have a lynch is very productive. There really ought to be a nontrivial chance that the D1 lynch will actually happen, so we can learn stuff from voting and seeing how people react. For example, I cast a vote on Rath. Rath gave a response that satisfied. Now I have a better read on Rath. ...and now I just talked myself into an idea. We'll see how this goes Right now, these are my reads (also while I'm reading through everyone's posts, nice RP everyone ): Amanuensis - So far, I'm pretty sure everything they've posted are things they might have said from any of the alignments. Ark1002 Lumgol Fifth Scholar - Generally good contribution to discussion, although I'm not yet convinced this is alignment indicative for Fifth. Araris Valerian Ventyl Furamirionind - I'm apparently not very good at reading Fura. Rathmaskal - soft village read from their response to my vote, which was both prompt and genuine-sounding Devotary of Spontaneity - soft village read from suggesting we leave the kandra alone to go after the elims, which I doubt an elim would suggest even to blend in, and would be a really bold move for the SK to be making Sart _Stick_ - soft village read for posting about the possibility of an elim-kandra, which I think an elim would have brought up in the elim doc Walin Aonar Snipexe Straw Drake Marshall - it's that Drake guy I keep hearing about, he sounds pretty great so I guess he's probably village xinoehp512 I think we undervalue the use of village reads. Sure, an accurate elim read can catch an elim, but an accurate village read permanently narrows the hunting field. Even a random vote can be effective if you can narrow down the list enough. Assuming my trust reads are reasonably accurate, and assuming 4 elims 1 SK, that's 5/13 (38%) odds of hitting an evil player if I just choose randomly. For reference lynches are on average accurate about 1 in 3 times, so 38% isn't bad, especially for a D1 lynch. Of those, Lumgol, Araris, Sart, Walin, and Straw are still in "inactivity filter" territory, and whether they post later or not, it doesn't at this point make sense to lynch them. I'm also going to hold off on lynching Amanuensis, because I've already poked them once with a vote. I'm also not going to lynch Ventyl because it would be poor form to lynch a brand new player on the first day. Bringing the list down to 6: Ark1002 Fifth Scholar Furamirionind Aonar Snipexe xinoehp512 It may be a shot in the dark, but it's an educated shot in the dark. RNG chooses Ark. Here's the catch. Like I said, I want there to be a nontrivial chance that somebody gets lynched. I expect to be online during rollover. Right before rollover, I'm going to use RNG to decide whether I retract my vote or not. Ark already has one vote. Maybe my second vote will count, maybe it won't I don't even know yet. It'll be a surprise. This is kind of breaking new ground, since I've definitely never done this before. But, I thought about this, and I think it might actually be a sensible D1 practice. It's a way to gain most of the benefits from a lynch discussion, but with reduced risks.

Hm. Fair enough. That was a quick enough response time that I'm inclined to think you're being sincere. Rathmaskal. It doesn't guarantee that all of those roles are in the game, especially since they are mostly well-established roles that our resident GM wouldn't necessarily be itching to field test, but I can see why that might be a reasonable basis to predict a role madness setup.

I apologize for the double post, but there's no easy way to edit a quote into an existing post. Do hazekillers know how many charges they have left at any given time? If so, hazekillers might be somewhat more useful to the village than I initially thought. You could hazekill a known allomancer, and if it didn't use up any of your charges, then that could implicate them in making the eliminator kill.

Interesting. I had just assumed the Kandra would have access to a kill. I realize the rules don't actually confirm this. Hiya Aman. I don't know who this Drake fellow is but he sounds pretty cool I truncated this post to avoid length, but I like your analysis of PMs, and proportions of elims (it's always best to assume more elims when there is any doubt). Again, post truncated, but I am responding to these two points: Be careful about making assertions like that, unless you're pretty sure you are right. If you turn out to be wrong, then you just claimed to have a special role, and you will be targeted for it. I can definitely empathize with a villager wanting to live, but I also don't think there are that many cases where an extra cycle to persuade people would make the difference. In the end it will be a judgement call for any village thugs to make, depending on how late in the game it is and how likely they think it is that they could either convince the village of their innocence or catch an eliminator if they could just survive one more cycle. Actually, now that I think about it, what lead you to believe everyone had a role, in the first place? The only way I can imagine a player having any grounds to make such a conjecture at this early stage in the game, with limited PM throughput preventing too many village roleclaims, is that you already know the roles of a decent sample of players from the eliminator doc. Rathmaskal. This isn't hard proof of your guilt, but I'd say it's a more promising lead than I can typically spot for a D1 lynch. Nice catch. And because I think an eliminator or an elim!kandra would keep such a discovery to themself, you can have one of my Villager Bucks (TM). I don't think it's likely, though, for balance reasons. ^this. It could really mess with the eliminator team. Incidentally, executing both the eliminator and SK win conditions at once without any ability but the elim faction kill, is also doable What about a kandra mistborn? A mistborn wouldn't generally make sense in this setting, so it's not out of the question for the mistborn to be a secret role. And we know Bleeder was capable of switching out different spikes to gain different abilities, just only one ability at a time (which is exactly how the mistborn mechanic works). And Serial Killers are notoriously hard to win as, so this is actually one of the most balanced ways to use the mistborn role as it is written. And it isn't even that much of a power-up for the Serial Killer, since they still only have one action, and would need to sacrifice their coinshot kill in order to use a different metal.