DrakeMarshall

...and this also feels a bit too easy, but my instinct at this point is to just go with it. I trust a counter to this lynch less than I trust the one that I suggested, and I honestly don't have the energy to play devil's advocate against myself at this point. I'm glad we at least have a lynch that the eliminator team will have a hard time dropping a hammer on, with one probable inactive in their ranks. We'll see how it turns out. Fingers crossed.

Point. Those other four are looking much more likely, I suppose, and there is very little to decide between them. Which is frustrating. Still. I don’t fold easily. Even if I’ve probably lost. So... Don’t think it’s shane. The random vote on burnt last cycle doesn’t really fit. Gonna guess it isn’t Mark from the limited posting they did. Either Ventyl or Xino. Too bad I didn’t let xino lead the lynch for longer than 60 seconds on the first cycle or this would be much easier. Still, we have xino’s posts today, even if they are barely useful. Hm. Ventyl. @Alvron I’d appreciate if you entreated your gods for this one. EDIT: Wait a second. There’s more. Lopen said they shared twins with Ventyl. We know the saboteur would have gotten an Aviar. The odds of one of the inactives randomly receiving an Aviar from sabotage is pretty low, especially considering what fraction of Aviar in circulation are the result of a request action. That considerably increases the probability that Ventyl is the culprit. This is it.

Eh, I give it a decent chance that Alvron is the eliminator engineer, maybe 40% chance. If that lynch works out than I'd say we have a fighting chance. If it doesn't, then it probably would be reasonable to call the game. But I'm up for giving it one last shot.

Lumgol heavily implied that they are the navigator. They claimed they had a role ability to use on the first cycle and requested a bird on the second cycle, and they didn't vote on the second cycle. And nobody has stepped forwards to correct us in thinking Lum is the navigator. I'm thinking the navigator is probably a village role considering the early sabotage treatment, and claiming is pretty low-risk given the eliminators aren't really attacking people and the bridge is unlikely to ever get repairs. So, if Lumgol was not the navigator, the real navigator (who is presumably active enough to see us talking about their role over the course of two cycles, since they used their ability while they had it) would speak up. Thus, Lumgol cannot be the eliminator engineer.

Yes. Even if it didn't get sabotaged I could just claim to have posted that message to narrow the searching field. Given how many other people posted messages for the first time this cycle I thought we were all on the same page here. That the eliminators didn't even bother to leave the message board intact and trade alibis means they are pretty confident. And honestly, looking at the state of the game, why shouldn't they be? Ya know, the same reasoning applies at least as much to you as it does to Devotary. Unless somebody else steps forwards and claim the position of navigator, Lumgol cannot be the eliminator engineer.

RIP. That’s probably game over. Welp, third time’s a charm or something. Might as well vote Alvron.

Hm. I can see why that is problematic. Even if I am honestly still quite convinced of Devotary’s innocence. Is the saboteur allowed to choose what kind of bird they get? Are other requests still honored when the Aviary is sabotaged or does it become completely random? Did any of the other people who got Aviar specifically get the ones they requested?

Huh, so that is a thing. Good to know, thank you. That means Lopen probably is not a priority suspect. If the game was balanced with an active village engineer in mind, 4 elims is entirely plausible, I think. You’re probably right about the elims having a Sak from the most recent sabotage, but there is nothing preventing a third Sak that somebody isn’t owning up to. I might hesitate about claiming to possess a bird I got via sabotage. Still, this is a point against Devotary, even if I don’t think it outweighs my reasons not to lynch Devotary. Did Devotary claim to get a Sak as a result of a request action or was it random?

Point. @Ventyl are you around to back this up? Do you have a PM with Lopen that you know was not initiated by Lopen? Because the claim that "two different people got different twins" struck me as kind of odd. That suggests that the twins have an entirely different behavior when they are loosed via sabotage compared to how they are used normally, which seems unlikely. For now, Lopen. Alvron wouldn't be my first choice, but he's in my top 3 suspects, and I think it's a better choice than Devotary. It may be late in the cycle, but are you willing to switch over the lynch? Devotary, same question. Alvron.

Um. I'm glad you agree with me but. My point was kind of that you shouldn't do what you just decided to do. Re: Devotary's analysis. Your analysis of the end game condition is sound. I'm just not getting my hopes up about any village engineers coming through for us, since so far, it hasn't happened. Unless Aman happens to be a village engineer, I don't think it's very likely. This is an interesting point with regard to Stick. But, as you say, it's kind of hard to make a good pairing for who was bailing Stick out as the engineer. If I hadn't changed my vote, I'm pretty sure Stick would have been up for the RNG tiebreaker.

Right, the cycle is winding down. So, two things: I am very against the Devotary lynch. I don't think I'm understating things to say that this will likely be the deciding factor that loses the game for the village. Not only have I provided ample reasoning for why I think Devotary's past behavior is village, but think about it. Is Devotary really acting like an eliminator engineer under the gun right now? Is there really enough resistance to Devotary's lynch (aside from me right now) to signal those votes on the right track? I don't think it's much of a coincidence that the votes on Devotary include Stick and Lopen, both of which I have been vocal about thinking are eliminators. I am also both surprised and suspicious that it hasn't occurred to Aman that the Devotary lynch has just been too easy. I'm not sure why people are content to let this be. If we get this lynch wrong, and no village engineers show up that haven't been around before, I'm realizing that the village literally cannot win, even if we get every lynch after this one right. While Alvron is one of the few suspects, what little I have on him kind of points to his being a villager. This is very frustrating, because the other suspects have barely given much commentary. I don't like my odds at guessing with so little information. I feel reasonably good about narrowing it down to either Mark or Shane. I think Shane is slightly more likely. Unless the real eliminator engineer is more active, and stealing the claim from one of their teammates, in which case, it's Lopen. Considering the fact that Stick accused Devotary of literally the same thing, and Lopen seemed eager to rely on alibis to catch the eliminator engineer, I'm for sure willing to bet that the eliminators have thought of this already, and are using this tactic since the game is so close to ending. Lopen. @everyone, if nothing changes, then I don't think the village can win. Please think twice before you let this lynch go unchallenged.

Slight nitpick, but why are we interested in what birds people got this cycle? Everyone got a bird randomly since the Aviary was sabotaged, so this does not affect role or alignment. What birds people got last cycle is more interesting because it means they spent their action requesting a bird. As for the shoebill, idk but that’s what I got. Hm. That is tricky, since it isn’t an alibi that can be backed up. Gonna think about this one (and hopefully hear what the other players I flagged have to say). Thank you for volunteering a claim in any case.

Ah, not quite. If somebody claims to have gotten an Aviar on D1 (a fairly low-risk claim since all of those Aviar were returned at the end of the cycle) and there are no more than 3 claims, then we can be reasonably confident that those three people are also not elim!engineers. A similar principle can apply for claiming role-specific actions, although that comes with the usual downsides of announcing your role (probably worth it at this stage given the urgency of finding the elim!engineer, but I'm not going to force anyone to roleclaim, even if I personally would do it if I had a role). A similar principle can also apply to anonymous messages... Hm. That could be useful. Anyways, people who are claiming to have received Aviar on the first cycle: Me: Kokerlii Lopen: Sak ??? there should be a third one did somebody else claim Reading through the game: A lot of the early posts are individual analysis, without that much interaction between players, which is unfortunate. Devotary's explanation about village!sabotage was probably to open a defense of Lopen for eliminator teammates to be attempting at this stage. Mark could very well be a teammate of Lopen or Lumgol for his soft defense of those two players on the first cycle, but if neither of those two are evil I doubt Mark is. While this could be acting, I don't get the sense that Stick is teammates with Aman, Lum, or Lopen. While this is pretty small, I think the tendency is usually for players of either faction to assume the most problematic possibility for the enemy faction. Not only is it just plain good strategy, but I feel like people subconsciously tend towards creating a narrative where their own cause is the underdog. Again, maybe I'm reading into it more than it needs to be, but in my experience, "limitations on the eliminator team" is something the elims are going to be vastly more aware of than villagers are. And not something an eliminator would really think to hide. Devotary sounds genuinely displeased with the possibility of there being no village doctors, and it just being "a more vocal death". Reads as more likely to be village, to me. Alv said the game is very likely to have WGGs, which if the elims have no doctor I would be fairly sus of. But I can't think of an easy way to discern if the elims have a doctor or not. Well, that's what I get for trying to definitively read Alv. Striker trying to push the lynch away from being just RNG is a bit village. Although only a bit village, since encouraging activity is a pretty common blending-in tactic as well, since it doesn't cost an elim very much. Lopen seems oddly okay with just letting the D1 lynch go in a direction they don't think is productive. I am going to mostly give this a pass because they were planning on going to sleep soon and probably didn't want to open up a whole new lynch, but it's a wee bit suspect. Striker breaking the tie is a bold move and personally I think more likely to be village. Although, the choice of lynching a fully inactive player who Striker believed probably wasn't an eliminator, is not ideal. When questioned Striker cited that there were no other good choices, with the implication that lynching a fully inactive player is a relatively safe choice. I'm not going to pursue this very hard though because Striker is one of the few people who absolutely cannot be the elim engineer. I don't think an eliminator would as readily share this sentiment. Even if Aman is an elim this would be a tad blatant as defenses go. I also don't think Devotary would be elim teammates with Stick and say this. It doesn't really fit with the distancing mindset, and if somebody were consciously trying to break from that mindset it would probably be more pronounced. Burnt talking about having a potoo was initially a bit suspicious to me since the only strategic reason to say it is as a cover for an elim. But I'm also pretty sure Burnt didn't bring it up for strategic reasons. There's also the fact that when you get a non-Aviar bird, Rand has been linking you to the Wikipedia page to that bird, which in the case of the potoo specifically mentions the mournful cry in the first paragraph. So I'm pretty sure Burnt's potoo claim is legit. I still find Stick's TWTBAW comment to be suspect. I removed my vote from Stick mostly because it looked like nobody was defending them, but in retrospect it isn't clear to me if that was the case or not. On one hand, there were a lot of other candidates who tied shortly after Stick. On the other hand, creating ties is also a kind of unusual way to defend somebody. I can think of very few people who would think of "gigantic ties" as a defense mechanism. The first person on that list is Alvron. The second person on that list is me, since I've thought of something kind of similar to this before (I've never quite got the hang of execution, but you can bet that most unusual plans have at least occurred to me at some point), and I know it isn't me. Alvron basically defends the elims' choice to pursue sabotage. This is interesting, because Aman just brought up that Alv also disagreed with the elims' choice to sabotage the brig. I have two possible ways of reading this: The simplest explanation is that these are just Alv's genuine thoughts about what the elims are doing. It makes perfect sense for a villager to agree with some of the decisions the elims make and think they would have done some of it differently if it was them. The other halfway likely explanation is that Alv disagrees with the idea of sabotaging the brig with the intent to hospitalize people, because the elims sabotaged the brig early with the express intent of avoiding a hospitalization that could possibly backfire. All in all, this makes me trust Alv a bit more, since the simplest explanation is that village!Alvron is making these posts. However, both possibilities are fairly likely. Lopen expressed support for trying to find the elim saboteurs by way of alibi, which is somewhat village, unless the elims happen to have a good alibi prepared. Okay, I know Devotary already brought this up, but even with the explanation that followed, this feels weird to me. It's like Striker is already knows Aman was an inactive elim or something. I don't particularly get a bad vibe off Striker or Aman, but I am still pretty wary of a comment like that. Striker was initially too unsure to cast a vote, then after Araris provided additional reasoning, Striker was convinced to cast a vote on Stick. The fact that Striker readily reassessed with new information is a point in their favor, and a point that suggests Striker and Araris are less likely to be elim teammates. Striker's vote on Stick has seemed to flip-flop a fair bit, which is also more frequently a village thing. Lopen posts a list of reads, which, for a list of suspicions, doesn't actually contain very much suspicions. The vote cast at the end of this post is prodding Ventyl to weigh in, which falls in line with Lopen's lack of reads. This isn't necessarily suspicious, but I'm kind of wary of someone who is reasonably active in the discussion and yet still remaining perfectly neutral. It's possible but unlikely for a villager to go about their business and somehow end up completely neutral. I also feel it's a tad contradictory to cast a vote prodding somebody to weigh in on the later cycles, because while that's 100% valid at the beginning of the game to encourage discussion, at this point those kind of votes kind of hurt discussion. Not really something I want to read into very much, but if Ventyl is inactive in part due to playing two games, doesn't that kind of increase the probability that Ventyl is a villager in this one? I know if I were playing two games without very much time for both, I would probably give a bit more attention to one I was an elim in, since there are fewer elims and thus my faction would be relying on me more. Again, I'm not sure this is even a valid line of reasoning, but a similar logic could be applied to Alvron, which would suggest he is also village. This line really doesn't sound sincere to me, but since BR is in the hospital right now I'm not going to focus on it overly much. Brightness spends a lot of post suspecting Striker, then votes for me because she thinks I could be Striker's teammate. In my experience, the kind of overthink-y mindset where you vote on one person by proxy because you are mainly suspicious of someone else, is almost always a village mindset. So that's definitely a point in her favor. Aman arrives, which is good for activity levels. Says some stuff about a Burnt - Alvron team, which curiously enough was on a short list of possibilities I wanted to consider at the close of last cycle. But, at this point I'm not feeling particularly suspect of either Burnt or Alvron, so idk. @Alvron would it be fair of me to ask if you plan on including yourself in that? Aman is concerned about the game being almost over. I'm trying to decide if elim!Aman would cultivate a sense of urgency and try to steer it, or try to downplay the crisis and risk being called on that. Probably the former. But, village!Aman would certainly also act concerned about the game being almost over so I'm not really making any headway here. In any case, Aman wasn't active enough early in the game to be an engineer, and right now I'm only interested in lynching the elim engineer. Lopen posted the anonymous message so can't be the elim engineer. Good to know. Oof. That took a while to get through. So, engineer suspects: Lumgol - Potential suspect but not very active. Claimed to receive a useless bird. Ventyl - Potential suspect but not very active. Devotary - For the reasons listed out above, I trust Devotary, I think. Mark - Potential suspect but not very active. Shanerockes - Potential suspect but not very active. Claimed to receive a useless bird. _stick_ - I think Stick is an eliminator. I'm now pretty convinced about that. But, I don't think Stick is the eliminator engineer. If Stick were the eliminator engineer, the defense of Stick would have been more pointed last cycle. Alvron - I have a few things slightly pointing to Alvron being a villager, but there also isn't very many other options and Alvron remains plausible. Burnt - Potoo claim seems legit, from what I now know. So, I'm kind of left with the impression that the eliminator engineer is a lurker. Which is not going to be fun to track down. This isn't good. I don't love to do things this way, but, Alvron, have you got an alibi? EDIT: I should probably also mention that I also suspect Lopen of being an eliminator, but am not interested in lynching Lopen since we know they can't be the engineer. EDIT2: @Ventyl @Mark IV the same question I posed Alvron applies to you. Are you going to claim any alibi for the first cycle?

Caught up. Yes, I did get the Kokerlii I requested on the first cycle, and then had to return it. It isn't so helpful to be claiming birds we got last cycle since that was when the Aviary was sabotaged and it didn't require an action to get a bird (and apparently more than 3 Aviar were distributed). But, I might as well say anyway that I requested a pair of twins, and got a Shoebill instead. I'm going to scan through all of the past posts and try to come up with something. In the meantime, given the precarious balance of the game, I think it's the right idea for people to be giving alibis for sabotage. I'm pretty sure we could lynch one of the eliminators this cycle with some good analysis, but we're going to need a bit more than that if we are going to specifically target the elim engineer, who will end the game soon if nothing changes.

Woot I’m alive. Fun fact: since the game ends when the elims outnumber the village, my calculations from last cycle are wrong. If the assumptions hold then my original guess that hospitalization is faster is correct. EXCEPT that the assumptions don’t hold. The village engineers don’t appear to be active, and that’s a major part of the village balance. Meaning that sabotage is going to end the game in two cycles. This is concerning.

I was considering breaking the tie, but nah. Thank you Burnt. Edit: ninja’d

Well, I've waited to see what would happen now that Stick is on the spot with more votes, and I guess I'm not really getting the feeling that the Stick lynch is going to flip red. So, I'm in a spot where I don't necessarily support any of the current lynch candidates. I am feeling a bit directionless with the vote and I am sensing I might not be the only one. You will have to forgive me for suggesting we take things in a new direction. Alvron, I know you always kind of hold your cards close and make it difficult to read you, but my gut says the options on the table are all bad and somebody like you on the sidelines is probably the right choice. Yes, this does considerably increase the probability of my being lynched. I'll leave that up to you guys to deal with. Needless to say, I don't think you should lynch me. Are you implying I am evil because I lynched a villager? I'm a bit more concerned by the lack of serious voting on the first day. I can confirm that this is probably something I would do to distance the eliminator team. However, it is also something I would do as a villager trying to make sense of what the eliminators are doing. Regardless, I have reasons* to change my mind about the eliminators making the wrong call. Yep, I publicly requested a bird. Your point here seems to be that this is something an eliminator hypothetically might do, not that it is something a villager would be any less likely to do, which imo is a poor criteria for choosing suspects. You spent most of your post explaining why you were voting on Striker than switched to me, so I'm not really sure what your case here is. Although, I can get behind the idea that Striker and myself are probably the same alignment. Because Striker is currently my strongest village read. This lynch feels weird. I'd say the elims are inactive but they were obviously active enough to sabotage two ship parts. I'm going to think about this more in the morning, assuming I'm still in the game. *I ran some numbers. I was kind of curious what the best choice of wincon for the elims actually was. Due to the nature of the conclusion I don't think there's any danger in sharing it with the thread. Sabotage: The game starts with 8 parts to sabotage. It would seem that the eliminators can sabotage 2 parts per cycle, and I'm sincerely hoping the village can repair at least one otherwise I don't think the game is balanced. Assuming no engineers on either side were killed, the eliminators would sabotage every part in 8 cycles. Since the eliminators are typically forgoing their kill in favor of sabotage, the lynch is the only mechanism that is likely to remove engineers of either alignment. On average the lynch probably hinders both sides roughly evenly and it still takes about 8 cycles, but the time it takes is highly variable depending on if and when engineers are lynched. Hospitalization: There are 17 living players. Almost certainly 3-4 eliminators, leaving 13-14 villagers to dismiss or hospitalize. Factors: The eliminators still likely have an engineer, who could very likely squeeze two extra kills from sabotaging the biology lab and brig. This can be considered as a flat -2 to the number of hospitalizations the eliminators need to carry out. Doctors: Those who visit the hospital lose the ability to speak, vote, or count towards parity, making it not particularly viable for large numbers to visit the hospital. The doctor will be the one visiting the hospital repeatedly, so anyone who wants to cover for the doctor must also visit repeatedly, and if any of those people are killed later they cannot be replaced by other players willing to cover for the doctor. So, maybe there are 5 volunteers to cover for the doctor, maybe 3 of them are on the ball and persistent enough to give up all other ability to influence the game every single cycle the doctor is doing their thing. Even assuming the eliminators just randomly attack the group of people visiting the hospital, the doctor is more likely than not killed after 3 cycles of this. Which goes to say, even assuming a pretty dedicated effort to conceal the doctor, we can't expect them to heal more than 3 players. Probably not more than 1 village!doctor, so flat +3 to the number of hospitalizations the eliminators need to carry out. Lynch: I've read before that the lynch is roughly 30% accurate, and that statistic sounds reasonable. In conclusion, 13-14 players to hospitalize, 3 extra lives saved and 2 extra lives taken taking it to 14-15, 1 attack and 0.7 villagers lynched per cycle. If 4 eliminators: 14 / 1.7 = about 8 cycles to win by hospitalization. If 3 eliminators: 15 / 1.7 = about 9 cycles to win by hospitalization. In conclusion, they're actually really close. If it's a 4 eliminator team, the two options are effectively equally good, but sabotage is more of a wildcard since it depends so much more on a single role and whether those players survive / are active. If it's a 3 eliminator team, then sabotage is slightly faster, and I was wrong about hospitalization being a better choice (although, it might be a safer choice, since it isn't contingent on one member of the team not dying).

(tally is missing my vote on Stick) 1) Araris had a point, I think. But personally, I am mostly satisfied by this explanation. 2) I was kind of wondering if you would bring up your bird again, after this post: As you say, you had no reason for sharing this information. Unless you were trying to cultivate an alibi. That you didn't try to bring this up again, particularly when I threw you in the list of people without an alibi, is a smallish point in your favor. I'm also not sure how to feel about my vote on Stick because there is seemingly little response, although that might be due to it only being a single vote. I am now very curious how the voting will unfold late in the cycle, and hopefully I will be online for some of that (I unfortunately can't be online at rollover). I am going to urge people not to procrastinate to the end of the cycle on voting, unless you actually want to deny people the time to respond to your votes, or unless you legitimately don't have the time to vote right now. It's easy to say you can do it later, but it's much better for discussion if you vote sooner, and right now the cycle is 3/4 done and there are only 2 votes. Currently, I have village reads on Striker, Araris, Devotary, and Lopen. More or less in that order.

Eliminators are a lot more aware of their own suspiciousness then villagers tend to be, for obvious reasons. I feel like eliminators are more prone to the mindset of wanting to defend themselves in advance from a potential mistake. At least, I know that this is almost definitely one of my own tells. It's mostly how you said it that provoked my vote: Acknowledging that you did something suspicious is one thing, but trying to call yourself TWTBAW before anyone else said it was even wolfy, let alone too wolfy? Seems a wee bit exaggerated and fake, at least to me. 1. Agreed. Either there is no village doctor, or they are playing it safe (which is probably smart of them). 2. Agreed, although it certainly is less likely for those people to put in the orders, while still absolutely possible. 3. So long as we can consistently repair one item per cycle, we should last long enough to defeat the eliminators. Voting on what item to repair is one way to make sure that happens. For what it's worth I vote to repair the bridge because I think that's a very strong asset. I am actually kind of against repairing the brig, because I don't think it's very safe to use, so long as the eliminators are thinking along the lines of sabotaging the brig in an attempt to hospitalize people. If we are predictable in repairing and using the brig then the elims can just use that as an extra kill (though one that has a chance of backfiring for them). @Randuir I am assuming that if a ship part is fully repaired, that will be announced in-thread. Is it announced in-thread if a ship-part is halfway repaired? If this information is announced in the thread, than it may be worthwhile to distribute the repairs across multiple ship parts, in case we have more than two engineers, since it won't be any setback at least in the long run. I don't think a doctor would revive people every cycle, if they wanted to live very long. Assuming there even is a village doctor they would only delay the eliminators for a short time. And if the eliminators lose their engineer then they probably wouldn't be able to progress at all with their sabotage win condition, until they take out a village engineer or two. I agree that there is no guarantee that they will keep sabotaging, albeit for different reasons. The choice to sabotage the brig feels like a decision to hedge their bets, trying to accomplish both a sabotage and a hospitalization. Are the roles of hospitalized people announced?

Hm. So the elims had an engineer. Unsurprising. They decided to go after sabotage because there was only 8 parts left to sabotage and >8 people left to hospitalize (although I wonder if they failed to take the lynch into account? With a semi-consistent mislynch they would probably be winning faster if they pursued the hospitalization win condition). They sacrificed their attack to make a sabotage, but they probably convinced themselves to do it because they were sabotaging the brig, and that would most likely hospitalize at least one person. Only it didn't hospitalize anyone, that part of their plan seems to have not worked out. Which to me says that any internal affairs agents are now soft-cleared. Because if the elims had an internal affairs agent, they either would have brigged someone to guarantee a hospitalization, or they would have not sabotaged the brig in the first place. They also didn’t go after the biology lab despite apparently wanting to kill two aviar with one stone by sabotaging and hospitalizing at the same time, which could imply that one of the elims is a biologist. Or it might just imply that they thought the bridge was a bigger threat (they would kind of be right in that case, it’s a really fantastic ability for the village). What concerns me is that no village engineers had repaired the gasbag in the meantime. If there aren’t two active village engineers to repair at least one part a cycle, the game is going to end fast. If our engineers are inactive and the elim engineer remains in the game, we're toast. Well, onwards to the lynch. The best possible thing we can do is take the elim!engineer out of the picture, although I doubt we will get that lucky. First of all, sorry to Elandera. I like what Burnt said, "thank you for your service". Second of all, we actually have a decent lead now, at least. Two eliminators took sabotage actions. Player list: Xinoehp512 - Probably too inactive to place sabotage order. Lumgol - Probably too inactive to place sabotage order. StrikerEZ - Spotlight gives Striker an alibi. BrightnessRadiant Ventyl - Probably too inactive to place sabotage order. Elandera Dead so clearly not to blame for sabotage. Amanuensis - Probably too inactive to place sabotage order. Ax's boyfriend - Probably too inactive to place sabotage order. MrakeDarshall - I said I was taking a bird and that's what I did. I'm probably not smart enough to plan this in advance although I'd be flattered if you thought so. Devotary Mark Shanerockes - Probably too inactive to place sabotage order. _stick_ TheMightyLopen Alvron Araris Burnt Suspect list for committing sabotage: BrightnessRadiant Devotary - Pretty good village read right now, although that may be colored by my incorrect suspicion of Devotary in our last game together. Mark - I don't think elim!Mark would defend village!Lumgol like they did, so unless Lumgol flips evil I'm ever so slightly more inclined to trust Mark. @Mark IV I wouldn't mind hearing more of your thoughts though. _stick_ TheMightyLopen - Lopen's response to my vote last cycle has earned at least one cycle's respite from me voting on them again. Alvron Araris - Very slight village read for the aforementioned reasons (TM). Burnt Nah, I didn't think it was suspicious at the time, otherwise I would have voted for you last cycle. Elandera flipping village doesn't really change that. Why do you think it was suspicious? Stick.

I don’t remember saying I trusted Elandera? Oh huh. I guess I did. Once by the way, not twice like you said, and only with the qualifier of “very slight” and only talking about a single post, but whatever, I stand corrected. I hadn’t really considered (or indeed remembered) my earlier comment when I cast that vote. I’m still keeping my vote where it is though, I think. I’m not claiming to be very sure of myself but my initial reasons for voting stand, and it kind of felt like Elandera was more interested in backing off on the vote than explaining why, when I asked them about it. I also got kind of odd vibes from BR’s most recent post but I’ll give some slack on that since it was apparently posted while sleep deprived. Speaking of sleep deprived it’s 2:30am so bye.

I only said it probably wasn't a double bluff. Go big or go home, I say. Double bluffing is boring and lame, a triple bluff is obviously still on the table You know what else is on the table? Two chalices of wine and a generous pinch of Iocane powder Nice bird (Aviar?) drawing. I'd forgotten you were that good at drawing. The bird definitely makes up for any absence. Just you wait the next game I run inactivity will be excused only if the players provide me with a drawing of a bird *cue evil laughter* True that, about ties being useful and eliminators defending each other. But, that gets less effective if the tied vote becomes diluted across too many players (if I were elim I'd definitely consider letting one or more elims take a small risk if it meant most likely earning trust). I believe that a 2-way tie is optimal. Mainly, I guess I'm not content with the votes right now because it doesn't feel quite as helpful when all of the lynches are happening with only one vote. There's a lot less to analyze when whoever ends up getting lynched, was lynched unilaterally, imo. (got ninja'd by Striker who I see kind of addressed my concerns here, so yay) That said, I can sympathize with not having any good leads on the lynch, which is probably why we were in this situation of having a 4-way tie with 1 vote each, in the first place. It's hard to do anything on the first day when there's nothing to talk about, but it feels more difficult in this game than average. I wonder if we don't have any leads (good or bad) because all of the votes so far are basically poking players who have yet to show up? If so, I am partially to blame for this since I switched to xino, who I honestly am doubting will post this cycle at this point. While I'm not necessarily opposed to lynching somebody because they never showed up, I'm also not very satisfied with that being 100% of the votes that are being cast right now. We should at least be considering alternatives. In the spirit of being the change I'd like to see in the world, Elandera @Elandera, you voted for shane with no explanation offered, kind of on the tail end of other inactive people getting prodded with votes like it would blend in. Could you please explain why you chose shane in particular?

Yep, those are pretty much the two cases of village!sabotage I thought of too I didn’t notice that it takes 2 repairs to counter one sabotage. That makes village!sabotage considerably less viable. But, I think having the option will still be useful, if admittedly less useful than I initially thought. Cool. My curiousity is sated. Lopen. Next up, xino @xinoehp512, are you there? 1. Not quite. From my very limited impression of Araris, I feel that elim!Araris would have been less likely to poke Aman. Burnt’s thoughts about hospitalization and the likelihood that a hospitalized person is an elim seemed pretty genuine and helpful (although I am aware that it is very possible to fabricate that sort of thing). I believe my reasoning is kind of weak, but hey, it’s still reasoning and at this stage in the game I’ll take what I can get. 2. Are you saying that because the rules say this role was hired by the NITC, it’s more likely to be village? Yeah, I had to specify a bird when I put in my order for it to be valid. For reference, I’m asking for a Kokerlii. I doubt I could win the draw on a more useful bird so I might as well just inconvenience the eliminators (I don’t really see a use for Kokerlii except for the elim team). Sure I might just be an eliminator double bluffing you, but would I really bring that possibility up if I were? I probably would but whatever Slight village read from this post, for reasons (TM).

Oh huh, the game has started. Neat. Minor village read on Burnt and Araris for reasons. No real suspects yet, so I guess I'll just prod people and see what I can find. @TheMightyLopen TheMightyLopen, would you elaborate on why you don't think villagers will utilize sabotage? Obviously it's risky since it brings one of the elims win conditions a step closer, but I guess it doesn't feel that obvious to me that a village!engineer would never choose to sabotage things.

I do believe I recall reading the post from the AoGC thread a while back, and saying to myself I would want to play this one. This setup looks pretty weird, but weird in a good way. Sign me up as... Technically, the only character I have from First of the Sun would be Quill. So sign me up as Quill, a hemalurgist by trade who was marooned on First of the Sun quite some time ago, and has survived mainly by virtue of his... Er... "pets" As thanks for deliverance from isolation on the islands, he has agreed to tag along for a single expedition back to the Pantheon on behalf of the Northern Interests Trading Company. So does this mean that there are some generic birds that aren't actually Aviar?