DrakeMarshall

Zachary Holcomb hopped up onto a stone bench in the Garden, studying the other guests from his vantage. "You will have to forgive my inexperience. I would expect the constabulary's response time in a town such as Bilming would be rather lackadaisical in comparison to the cutting edge enforcement we enjoy in Elendel, but it seems to me that they can't be that slow. Something must have gone wrong." He examined the faces. Who was surprised? Who wasn't? "My good Lords and Ladies," he continued in a grave tone, "I do not know the reason, but I do believe we should assume there will be no outside help in the foreseeable future. It is up to us to fix things ourselves. We must each play the part of amateur detectives, and solve the murder of Talbot Oswin." "But that shouldn't be a problem for any of you." Zachary's lip ticked up on one side. "Are we not Lords and Ladies of Elendel? Are we not the finest citizens the Basin has to offer? Truly, was there ever a people more well-versed in the ways of intrigue and conspiracy? Was there ever a people more equipped to solve a murder? As it is written in the book of the Survivor, there's always another secret. So let us ever keep searching." "Judge carefully, for I believe I have an answer to this riddle. The means and the motive for Talbot Oswin's murder. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let us rewind back to when the late Oswin was found. Reexamine the evidence." Alright, I'm done with RP now. Point is, this is a murder mystery game and I'm pretty sure by now there should be enough information to solve it, if we're lucky and/or smart enough to fit the pieces together. I reckon we can win it. But with 5 consecutively dead villagers in a game of 18, you'd best believe the current is against us right now. But, I think how we got in a fix like this will be pretty telling. That goodness I'm not limited to 200 word posts anymore. Wouldn't be able to do this if I was. First, some responses: Honestly, I gotta say that elim!Drake would probably be okay with killing a newer player. Certainly village!Drake is a lot more okay with lynching a newer player. Which I'm pretty sure Vapor was. Thing is, while it's really cool that we have so many newer players interested in the game (), the meta of protecting them comes from a time when there was only like 1 or 2 relative newcomers in any game. At least to me it doesn't feel quite as doable for a larger number of players. Sorry if that seems like poor form, but yeah. All things held equal, I'm still holding off on lynching newcomers C1, but when I was suspicious (wrongly, apparently) of Vapor I was okay with lynching them on what was effectively C2 of voting. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only "older player" who does feel that way. Maybe I'm idealist, but I think that if I put enough effort to communicate what my thought processes are well enough, the truth should eventually become evident. Putting people up for lynch is imo one of the better ways of gauging their alignment, provided they are around often enough to mount a strong defense. As paradoxical as it sounds, I really don't think elims will defend themselves as fiercely as villagers will. At least to me, knowing whether the lynch is right or not kinda makes a big difference. It's a lot easier to find the flaws in an argument when you know for a fact it's false Not gonna lie, I'm getting a little tired of antihammer as a reason to stack votes on mislynches. Is that the only reason you voted? That's fine. If I haven't caught an elim in 1 or 2 cycles you have my permission to lynch me. But nobody's caught one yet so I think it'd be a pretty good investment to keep me alive until I can prove myself. Now that it's the weekend and I actually have the time, I want to do a day-by-day and very roughly post-by-post analysis. From the first voting day, since I kinda don't think D1 counts for analysis (kinda glad we got the chance to focus on RP, though, because the RP has regrettably dwindled after the first couple cycles). Cycle 2 TJ Shade reports where Orlok was randomly assigned and asks where others ended up. Other people reply with answers. Probably NAI for all involved. The amount of NAI content in this game feels a little concerning. Devotary talks about the possibility of secret doors. Probably NAI but it's a pretty cool idea at least. Mist poke votes Striker, Araris stab votes Vapor, Vapor votes Araris back, people decide on rooms to go to. Probably NAI. Especially since 2 of them are dead. A serious discussion occurs on the utility of a room in which to growl TJ votes Gears because they think Gears and I are following each other around. I really don't think the elims would be so flagrant but this also feels like the same brand of theorizing I've seen from village!TJ in the past so I'll cut some slack here. MysticLotus says their character suspects Vapor, which feels like kind of an odd way of distancing yourself from a suspicion when you're saying that OOC. Araris pushes to not lose the game to a hammer. Village read except that isn't helpful anymore. Gears signs on with the Silber lynch, making it the second vote on Silber. They explain they'd rather lynch Silber than Striker. While I don't think an elim would most likely cast the second vote on the person who gets lynched (they tend to be more cautious about that sort of thing in my experience), Silber and other non-Striker players who had votes only had 1 apiece so they weren't the only alternatives to Striker. Could be just a villager not really knowing who to lynch yet, or could be an elim not really caring who gets lynched yet, so I'll call it a wash. Devotary provides a vote tally and does kind of the same thing as Gears. Similar reasoning applies. I also don't think they could both be elims because in my experience elims avoid voting one right after the other like that. Mist makes this post in advice to a new player asking for voting advice: This is just a pretty good summary of the village's priorities in the game, so I'm inclined to read it as more village, since an elim doesn't as strongly have those priorities in mind. Windrunner votes Striker. Feels pretty elimy how they do it but I guess not because they flipped village. MysticLotus is cautious about who to vote for. Which, kind of feels like what I would do as a new elim in the first cycle. But I also understand that it can be pretty hard for villagers to find a read at the beginning. If you happen to be a villager, I'd advise that it's usually better to get your thoughts out in the open, even if you don't feel very confident about them. You've probably thought of some smart things that we haven't Mist swaps from Striker to Silber. I don't like the development of the train, but I'll cut some slack because by now Striker and Silber are pretty solidified as the two main lynches, and they just realized Striker dies C1 a lot. I still wish that wasn't everyone's reason for lynching Silber, though, because that reason had nothing to do with Silber. Silber is confused about the secretary being a player. In retrospect, an elim would probably know how the secretary mechanic works, but hindsight is 20/20 and all that. MysticLotus votes for Vapor based on the suspicions of their RP character. I am a bit confused. @MysticLotus could you walk me through the reason for doing this? TJ switches to Vapor. @TJ Shade could I ask what you meant by saying the Vapor-Araris interaction were "poke-votes gone wrong"? Mist does a partial analysis/reads list which is a good sign. @Mist could I ask why Silber would look more suspicious if the secretary is an NPC, though? I don't really get how that works. Silber makes a post pretty much deciding they were doomed, which I think should have probably given people who saw it some second thoughts so I'm gonna look closely at what comes next. I get that people won't want to change the lynch on C1 when a hammer is a threat and we don't even know who to vote for, but usually at this point a lynch where the lynchee is online to the very end and knows they're about to die will see some doubt. Devotary posts RP and a room vote and doesn't comment on the Silber lynch. See above for why I find this a little suspicious. TJ comments that Silber hasn't even voted yet in response to Silber's final post. Which, is honestly a fair point. Also comments on Orlok and Eternum being inactive, and that they will die unless they've been lurking but still submitting actions. Which is interesting in retrospect since both of them are still alive and I can't remember either posting much. Orlok voted for MysticLotus last cycle, though. Silber theorizes that a bunch of people voting him are evil. I am quite sure that 2 of his reads were wrong, but it's pretty reasonable that at least one of the players who voted up Silber is evil. Windrunners vote on Devotary still strikes me as weirdly disingenuous sounding... Gears defends themself against Silber's accusation and says they have to vote for somebody and they'd vote for a different target if one appeared. Didn't look too likely that one would, though. Lahilt says they find Vapor more suspicious than Silber. @Lahilt could you explain what you thought was more suspicious about Vapor? Burnt gives a vote tally, which I like. They decide the lynch on Vapor looks sketchy and chooses Silber over Vapor, which given the context that Vapor hadn't had a chance to respond yet, seems like a fair decision. They say something at the end to the effect that they didn't think Silber was particularly suspicious but they wanted to prevent a hammer, which I don't like. Truthwatcher says something to the effect that they have no reads and they don't care who gets lynched so long as it isn't the secretary. This feels a little like an elim not wanting to commit to a mislynch (since we now know that both Silber and Vapor were guests), although on the other hand it can be hard to feel good about a read in the beginning of the game... @The_Truthwatcher I can sympathize, but the way to get reads off the ground is to start voting That is arguably a more important reason to vote than to prevent a hammer. We can't just not lose, we need to win, and the way we do that is by developing reads. Burnt announces the end of the cycle. End Act 1. Cycle 3 Gears reports that Araris said he found something. While it's quite possible that the elims targeted Araris for other reasons or for no reason at all, if they targeted Araris for an item, then it would have to be Gears who did it. But seeing as Gears announced that Araris claimed to have an item first thing in the thread, I kind of don't think Gears killed Araris. Kas makes some interesting clarifications about roles and items, which I still don't really understand the implications of. Are role and cosmetic role somehow linked? Gears puts in RP and room vote. Pretty NAI all-in-all. Discussion about whether we should reveal items we found. People seem pretty conflicted about the idea of sharing items but then they do it anyway. Nothing overtly alignment indicative that I can tell. Gears makes an interesting assumption about a piece of evidence in the form of a discarded contract being relevant to the killers. This is interesting because I would assume the killers probably already know the answer to whatever the mystery is in all these bits of evidence, although this probably isn't a strong alignment indicator on it's own. TJ theorizes that Araris was fear-killed. I kind of disagree with this on the principle that C1 kills are rarely that well thought out, but it's plausible that the elims could have perceived Araris as a threat. Somewhat like myself, Araris tends to make a point of voting independently, and if it was the elims intention to push bandwagons on villagers under the pretense of preventing hammers, I could definitely see how Araris could stand in the way of that. I'm hesitant to assume that the C1 elim kill wasn't basically random, but if it was targeted at Araris specifically, TJ's list makes a bit of sense for finding killers. I don't necessarily agree with crossing off Devotary or Burnt from the list, though. Gears does a vote-by-vote analysis of last cycle, which is an act that I will cautiously village read. Concludes that there isn't enough AI content out there, which feels pretty accurate, so I will village read that as well. Mist says some things to defend against TJ's vote. Seems mostly NAI to me but could I ask @Mist what you meant by saying "TJ, at that point, I was kind of panicking." Gears says TJ's list seems useful but they would rather lynch Xino than Mist and votes Xino. Mist says they don't see very much AI from Xino but still votes for them out of self-preservation. Says they will look for a reason to become suspicious of Xino, which kind of feels like doing things in the wrong order. TJ flips to Xino, which they already said they were okay with doing. Truthwatcher makes a comment about transporting suspicions from one game to another. I don't want to read into it too much but this feels very slightly village because I don't think an elim would probably have that problem? Orlok calls out MysticLotus for alluding to PM conversations that may or may not have been misrepresented by MysticLotus. I wish I had more content from Orlok to analyze, but I think Orlok spotting a discrepancy and suggesting a different lynch than what was happening already seems slightly village. Striker casts the second vote on Vapor for much the same reason as I did. MysticLotus defends themselves against Orlok's accusation. Their answer to me is a satisfying response to what Orlok said, although that pretty much just puts me back to not having a strong read on them. People put in votes to find other rooms. I don't think that's how it works (I think you'd need to use the Search action to find a hidden room) but it's a fun idea anyhow. Probably NAI. Mist says something to the effect that I haven't given enough reads. This is mainly because this game has more than it's share of NAI content, which is starting to concern me a little. I think you are also asking me why I am voting for Vapor when I had shared a village read of them earlier? I'm not really sure if that's what you're sayin here but pretty much I changed my mind after Vapor posted again. Devotary says they don't feel like a Xino lynch and decides to vote for Vapor. TJ shade justifies their PoE analysis as a starting point for discussion and arriving at a lynch. Fair enough. Lahilt votes for Vapor. On one hand, assuming 4-5 elims, this vote might have been needed to prevent a hammer, since I'm pretty sure Vapor ended up with 6 votes so if 2 of the voters were elims they could have hammered if it weren't for Lahilt. On the other hand, like I said before, "stopping a hammer" is reasoning that could be used to vote for anyone, and I'm a bit wary of votes cast with that as the only reason. Since this vote was only cast at the very end of the cycle, when it was unlikely that the lynch would be able to change off of Vapor even if Lahilt had wanted it to, I will give Lahilt some slack, though, since the timing of the vote means it wasn't really detracting from discussion. In summary, my experience of the last few cycles has been that there's been a fair amount of NAI conversation and a lot of sheeping to prevent hammers. I was originally very worried about the elims making a hammer. But what we're doing right now isn't workable, either. Piling many unreasoned votes on a single target, and then letting discussion of the lynch die because splitting votes could be seen as dangerous, is not helping the village. It's killing us as surely as a hammer might. I'm half convinced that was the elims plan all along, to win without using the hammer and use the threat of it as a smokescreen. I will personally make sure I am online around each rollover to detect and counter a hammer, if that's what it takes. But we need competition between lynches if we are going to progress in this game. I'm going to do what I can to create that. Player List: TJ Shade: Village read. I like the way they have taken initiative on discussion. Gears: Elim read. It feels like the elims are trying to jump on mislynches and steer the game, and the way Gears has been voting fits that pattern. Orlok Tsubodai: His voting on Lotus felt like a village move, but I'd really like more content to analyze from him, because personally I find it kind of hard to get a strong read on Orlok even when he has lots of posts. StrikerEZ: Not much of a read on him, really. Dodged the first cycle's lynch which might be indicative but not strongly, and appeared to have reached the conclusion of voting for Vapor independently of myself. Eternum: Has been inactive, as far as I can tell. Which is interesting because the filter hasn't gotten to them yet, so they've still secretly been submitting actions. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if one or more of the eliminators consisted of less active members. @Eternum do you have anything to say about the game? Mist: Probably village, based on the work they are putting towards solving the game. Kinda don't see an elim going out of their way to do their homework for suspicions and bring past games into it. Burnt Spaghetti: Not a strong read, overall. Did some villagery things and did some elimy things. MysticLotus: My gut leans slightly village, but I'm also slightly concerned because they seem like they've posted a lot and I still don't have a decisive read outside of what my gut says. The_Truthwatcher: My gut leans elim on them, but it might just be a newer player trying to come to terms with the game. I feel comfortable giving them more time, during which I will hopefully get a better grasp of their alignment. xinoehp512: The C3 lynch switched from Mist to Xino to Vapor. I don't feel like a lot of Xino's posts stick in my head. It raises my eyebrow a little when votes shift onto and off of somebody that quickly, but from examining the surrounding situation I don't think there was a hidden agenda there. Very cautiously village read, I guess? Lahilt: Mostly elim read for basically just supporting votes to prevent hammers, but they also might not be active enough to put more work into their votes. Devotary of Spontaneity: I originally strongly trusted them for bringing up the danger of an elim hammer, but now I'm second guessing. It's really starting to look like the elims wanted the village frightened of a hammer, and Devotary has been warning us of hammers and flying under the radar with bandwagon participation. I also don't really like how they approached the Silber lynch. I think the elim team are Gears, Eternum, Lahilt, and Devotary. Probably I'm not completely right, but I'd wager at least 2 of them are elims. Vote Tally Gears (2): StrikerEZ, TJ Shade DrakeMarshall (1): Mist I'd be okay with lynching Gears, but like I said, the lynch needs competition. I'm getting tired of how bandwagonny this game has been so far. Anyway, of the 4 people I listed, my top suspicion is probably Devotary. @Devotary of Spontaneity how do you plea? That is all for now.

Seeing the kind of work you're putting into this I think it's fairly likely that you're a villager. Game was goin really fast in LG66. More pages of content to analyze in the first cycle of that game than some games see in all their cycles. Don't usually post full reads so early since I don't usually have that many reads until later. Would you like me to post reads? Kinda already said I would 2 posts up. Haven't really done good analysis for that yet though, imma do that tomorrow morning if that's all the same since I had stuff today. Keeping too quiet about my opinions isn't usually what my problem is I reckon give it some time and that should become fairly evident. Idk but if you're okay with it I'd ask you hold off on putting me up to defend myself until I can do that analysis I promised, and you can decide whether or not its to your liking. If you force me to, I'm pretty sure I can prove I'm village, but I'd be focusing on doing that instead of focusing on catching who the elims are.

Sigh. Feels like the only times people follow the lynches I suggest is when I'm wrong. Anyway this game's probably churned out enough content by now for a comprehensive analysis. I'll be making one of those on this cycle. I'm a fan of mechanics to let dead players participate, myself But I wouldn't expect such mechanics to make their way into a murder mystery, barring fairly unusual circumstances. Does the geranium have any significance with the novels? For that matter, is there 1 or multiple killers in the novels?

I don't suppose I could ask you to say your reasoning? It isn't really possible for me to respond otherwise. I agree that PMs can be dangerous in terms of pocketing. Whenever elims have pocketed me in past games it's been through PMs I disagree about this being a reason to suspect Lotus, though. Whether they're right or not, I'm pretty sure Lotus wouldn't have defended themselves by elaborating that they think elims would want to avoid PMs, unless they were sincere in thinking that. Oh? Known rooms, you say? Does that mean there exist some rooms that are currently unknown??? Welp I know what I'm searching for Vote Tally xinoehp512 (4): Gears, Mist, TJ Shade, Vapor Vapor (3): DrakeMarshall, MysticLotus, StrikerEZ DrakeMarshall (1): A Windrunner

Re: Lynching Xinoehp. I uh. I'm not really one to talk when it comes to making lists of people that are supposed to contain elims. But it usually doesn't work out very well for me. I don't want to steal steam from a lynch that prevents a hammer, but we do need to be smart about our lynches. Basing one or more lynches on the assumption that we can figure out what the elims were thinking for a D1 kill might not be so swell of an idea, and I'm not seeing a strong reason to lynch xino outside of that reason (although I would still really like to see how @xinoehp512 responds to the votes when they show up). But yeah me and Gears were I'm pretty sure the only ones who knew Araris claimed to have found something, for what that's worth. Didn't think it really mattered cuz I've found something every cycle and none of it's actually been useful so far, but I guess I could see how it might have been important cuz Araris was keeping whatever he found a secret (and apparently so is Kas, if such an item actually existed). I kinda don't think that elim!Gears woulda announced Araris' claim after he died, though. For now my vote's staying put, I think. Has anyone tried to go to a room and failed, yet? I'm curious to know what'd happen if we all voted for the same room. But probably let's not do that cuz it might hurt our chances looking for evidence. Zachary Holcomb was very perplexed. He could not remember for the life of him how he managed to end up laying facedown in the gardens with a splitting headache. He suspected the mostly-empty bottle of Talbot's whisky still clutched in one hand had something to do with it. Good stuff. Folk were abuzz about Lord Heron getting himself iced... Or burned, rather, Zachary supposed. They were gettin' all heated at some loony who shouted at him yesterday and wouldn't give his name, which was well and good, but Zachary wished they'd keep it down. Downright inconsiderate of them. Some of us have headaches. Curious, though. A dead layabout Oswin suggested a personal feud. A dead Lord Heron suggested a fracas over succession. But what the rusts did they mean put together? Was Oswin in line to inherit any Heron holdings? Surely not, the Oswins were little more than a satellite to the great house. Did someone at the party have it out for the whole Heron family? Maybe, but it weren't obvious who at this eclectic gathering would give a fig about the Herons. Mayhaps Zachary could do something about that. He drained the last of his bottle and scanned the copy of the Elendel Daily crammed in his pocket. "Hey, anybody hear about this?" he spoke up loudly. "Herons just opened up a big mining venture in Drypost, allomantic grade metal on the cheap. They say it's s'posed to double their wealth in the next few years, believe it or not. Guess it won't be Aralis what's rakin' in the boxings anymore, though. Wonder what that's about?" Zachary cast the paper aside and wandered off to find someplace to sit down, keeping his eye on where he left his copy of the Elendel Daily. The "news" he had just announced was significantly blown out of proportion compared to what the paper actually said, but he figured it'd catch the eye of anyone whose eye was on the fate of House Heron. At least, that was the plan. EDIT2 (come on, please post more so I don't have to keep editing to construct a progressively larger wall of text ): Hmmm... Vapor. (@Vapor) Wish I had a better suspect, but it's a little sus to plan for the lynch you're supporting to be a mislynch, and then have somebody ready to blame for it. It's true that villagers sometimes play the blame game, but it feels like you expect this to be a mislynch and you're still voting for it. I think this is a better lynch than xino. Xino hasn't even had a chance to respond yet and the reasons for lynching them seem kinda vague and PoE based on a shaky assumption. Also moving my updated vote tally down here where it's more visible: Vote Tally xinoehp512 (4): Gears, Mist, TJ Shade, Vapor Devotary of Spontaneity (1): A Windrunner Vapor (1): DrakeMarshall This tally is made by an automated script, so let me know if there are any mistakes with this tally, and I can fix them so they won't happen again.

See, the thing is, is that an elim would want to vote people out... But so would a villager. When you are looking to find something alignment indicative, you can't just stop at "an elim would do this." You gotta look at whether an elim would be any more likely to do that thing than a villager in the same situation. An elim might want to vote other people out, but a villager should definitely want to vote other people out, because that's the only way we can win. But yeah, whether I agree with you or not isn't really relevant to my trusting you. Thanks for elaborating on your reasoning here, it helps at least a little. How about this. You said if I extend to you my trust, you think we can get rid of a killer. Do you have anyone in mind other than Devotary? If it's all the same I would rather not lynch my top trust read, but at this stage of the game I'd be fine with agreeing on a different lynch you suggest.

As of starting this post, it looks like it might end up being double post, but it's been 6 hours, and I'm also fairly sure editing votes into posts is frowned upon, so here we are. Reading the end of last cycle, imo the lynch on Silber didn't see nearly enough opposition to make it worthwhile. I'm a little wary of peoples just sort of letting that lynch slide and being comfortable with letting the discussion stop at that, but seeing as I also voted for Silber and wasn't around later to reconsider (I'd like to think I would have, although it's hard to say with hindsight), I am also partially to blame, so it would be hypocritical of me to pursue that line of reasoning very far. Hmmmm soft trust read on Vapor last cycle for temporarily voting on Araris cuz I kinda doubt the elims would bother to vote for the person they planned on killing. They were also the opposite lynch to Silber at the end not sure what to make of that. So uh. Same stuff about voting being important applies. Which is kinda frustrating bc I don't feel like there's a lot to go off of yet. For now, could I ask @A Windrunner A Windrunner to walk me through the reasoning for this post: Could you explain what behaviors you had in mind and such? Looking back, the remark someone said about there being a lot going on with the game during C1 stuck in my head as a little sus since I feel an elim / non-village would be a little more likely to feel that way, but it's not really a significant enough thing that I'm gonna try and go find it rn. Anyways I haven't visited the Garden yet so time for some fresh air. Hoping to do more RP this cycle. I do have a reputation as a gossip to live up to, after all

Hmph, I would have liked to have been online towards the end of last cycle, but more on that later. I have some work I need to do right now that should most likely take a couple of hours, and after that I'm planning to spend some time figuring things out with this game. I will look forward to reading what looks like a pretty involved writeup.

Zachary Holcomb had a serious problem. His problem was another ruined rusting party. Why did Talbot Oswhatever have to go and get himself killed? Rusting selfish of the man, if you asked Zachary. Now the murder was all people talked about. Next thing you know and nobody even wanted to hear the highly entertaining tale about what happened last Cladence between the scion of House Haught and a nobody horseless carriage mechanic, or about the rumored shady dealings between the Tenierts and the Governor to set up and drag House Gardre through the mud. And he had been so excited to discover that precious few guests had heard of the latest tales from Elendel. But nothing killed the atmosphere of a party quite like a killing, it seemed. Zachary paced back in forth, agitatedly fiddling with the ostentatious aluminum cuff links fixed to his sleeves. Was it too much to ask that there was a decent party somewhere he could go to and just have a good time? What in the survivor's name was even the point of the murder? From what Zachary could gather, the man was near-universally regarded as a grand waste of space, so how was killing him anything but a grand waste of time? Unless there was more to the story. Zachary felt a spark of excitement at the prospect. An intricate murder plot would be just the thing to engross the rumor mills of Elendel! And him with firsthand knowledge of the whole affair, to boot. They would all want to listen to him, and any embarrassing scandals that may or may not have involved him would be mercifully forgotten by the wayside. He would have to get to the bottom of this mystery though, and quickly. Once the constables took over the investigation he'd probably be shut out, and his chances to salvage a compelling story from this mess flew out the window. Zachary liked his chances of solving the murder, though. None were his equal when it came to figuring out everyone's dirty secrets. His resolution made, Zachary pasted on a dazzling smile as he entered a small alcove with a lovely little fireplace, a room which the servants had named the growlery. Most of the partygoers were currently engaged in histrionics over the murder, and he hoped to find a more levelheaded conversation here. "Quite a stir back there, huh? The name's Zachary Holcomb. Pleased to meet you, but I don't believe I caught your name before...?"

Aight first order of business: does anybody know what the storms a Growlery actually is??? Cause I sure don't. Second order of business: we get to lynch today, with the benefit of having a cycle beforehand to analyze. Idk what there actually is to analyze in mostly RP, though. I'm also concerned by how hard it is to really protect against a hammer. Most D1 lynches don't see anywhere near enough votes to protect against that and idk I for one don't really love the idea of banking on the elims not wanting to end the game too soon. I'm... Honestly not sure if there's a good answer to this, or if there's something in the blackout setup that makes it harder for the elims to just end the game. Reading back on last cycle... Soft village read on TJ because they thought kills only worked in the same room and I'm pretty sure an elim woulda made sure to know how their kill works. I kinda think most of the posts were NAI it's hard to do anlysis when there's no lynch discussion going down. Uhhh @Lord_Silberfarben Lord_Silberfarben, what is your relation to Lord Talbot and what were you doing when Lord Talbot was killed?

Wait what??? That's great. I have no idea why it's there but clearly whoever put it there has eminently good taste

Thank you all who responded to my questions In light of that bit of the rules you quoted, you're probably right that RP doesn't have a big mechanical impact, after all. Woulda been cool but yeah probably not practical. Idk if those are all things that happen in the book but if so it sounds like an interesting read Yes, there is 18 players. 4 or 5 sounds like a reasonable guess. The rule of thumb is usually 20-25% I think? So both 4 (22.22%) or 5 (27.77%) would be plausible. I'm going to be pessimistic and assume it's 5 for now to avoid nasty surprises in the future, but you're probably right about 4 being more likely. Good questions. I'll take a stab at em: 1) I think most likely yes, but I already got PAFO'd on that. 2) Are there things that can do that? Huh. Yes I am excited to find out what they are. 3) Yeah thanks for reminding me of this. I remember this was one of the things I took note of when I was signing up. I'm gonna slightly village read you for bringing this up, because I think this is a fairly major concern for the village to be thinkin about. If the elims can ever get in a hammer, pretty sure we lose immediately. I'd really rather not risk that, even if the elims potentially have a harder time communicating between themselves in this game. So this is the part where I push everyone to vote (surprise surprise, the guy who puts inactivity filters in his games based on voting every day wants y'all vote ). Once the voting starts, vote early and often. Three important facts: Even if we pile more votes on a single candidate than there are eliminators left in the game, that doesn't necessarily make us safe. If some of the voters for the top lynch candidate are also elims, then their switching to the Secretary will also leave the leading non-Secretary candidate with fewer votes. Probably the best way to guard against being hammered is having multiple candidates for the lynch who each have a lot of votes (ideally 5+ at this stage in the game). I know this is probably unrealistic of me, but it would still be fantastic if we could manage those amounts of activity. Please do not take what I've said as a license to pile votes on a bandwagon without reasoning to back it up. Imo it's in a similar category as trying to prevent vote manips, where it's maybe a contributing factor in deciding to vote for somebody but it's not really a good enough reason on it's own, because the same reasoning could apply to any other player you wanted to vote for. "Of course, the Heron succession crisis was absolutely sensational," Zachary voiced enthusiastically. "Elendel was abuzz for weeks in speculation. Caused almost as great a stir as the incident with the Erikell disinheritance and the flamingos... But surely you've heard all about that already, that's old news. In any case, congratulations on your most precipitous ascendance! It may be so that the present company is lacking, but truth be told I had expected no different from an auxiliary house to greatness." Zachary watched the guest who was pushing her way through the crowd with a critical eye. Fashion was a bit out of date, but that was Bilming for you. If I see anyone who meets that description, I'll definitely let you know I mean, fair. Since it's a "partial-blackout" game and not a full blackout game, I'd personally be fairly surprised if something major like a whole separate faction were left out, but you never know. My perspective about what counts as "a lot of stuff that is going on" may be a bit skewed since I frequently gravitate towards the most complicated setups possible It doesn't maybe feel like there's a lot going on yet since we're just introducing characters and consulting rngesus to choose a room to search, but that'll probably change in a hurry. Also can I just say everyone's RP is great.

"Surely you don't mean the Lord Heron?" Zachary feigned surprise, rejoicing internally to have bumped into somebody actually important in this sham of a noble party. "Truly, it is an honor. I am afraid there is little or no fame to the name of Holcomb, except, perhaps, that which coincides with my own. Or so I should like to think. I would normally find diversion within the confines of Elendel proper, but things have gotten a tad dull in the city lately, so I'm expanding my horizons. But truth be told, I have not thus far been thrilled by my stay in the country. If I may be so bold as to presume, I cannot help but notice that you also seem disappointed in the quality of company on display at this event? Alright, let's get this party started. As I recall, today is not supposed to have a kill or a lynch, so let's take that opportunity to get a head start on discussion, yeah? There's nothing to discuss about yet, you say? Well then we'll simply have to make things to discuss @TJ Shade What do you think the rooms are supposed to do? @Gears In light of your character name, would you happen to know things about the novel Death Comes at the End? Idk it's a blackout game and Kas gave us that title to go off of so it might be useful in figuring out the basic setup, although I also wouldn't put it past Kas to throw us a curveball and do something completely different. @Orlok Tsubodai Do you think there is a particular strategy we should go about with searching? @StrikerEZ We know this game has at least a village and an elim faction, so how many elims would you expect for this number of players? @Eternum How much do you think the lack of lynch/kill today affects things? Do you think we should basically approach D2 in this game like D1 in an ordinary game? @Mist Do you think RPing will have a mechanical impact on the game? I kinda figure our characters are supposed to actually solve a mystery by searching for hints and stuff which would be pretty cool if it somehow involved RP. @Elbereth Why did you steal the cosmetic role I originally wanted to pick? @Vapor Going by your name, are you by any chance related to Mist? Also your profile is quite funny @Araris Valerian If you were going to vote for somebody today do you have any idea who it would be? @Lord_Silberfarben This game seems a little different in that the elims don't get a doc to talk in. How do you think that affects things? @Burnt Spaghetti I kind of recall you like doing stuff in PMs. PMs are not unrestricted in this game, but what's your take on the room PMs? @MysticLotus Welcome to the madhouse Kind of a big question but what do you think are the best ways to identify eliminators? @The_Truthwatcher I think you're in the LG rn but I've never played with you so hi. I'll ask you a similar question as Mystic: what do you think are the best ways to identify guests? @xinoehp512 If memory serves then I believe you are a player who likes to analyze rules. Does anything in this game stick out to you as particularly unusual? @Lahilt Do you think there is any chance of secret/roles factions in this game? @A Windrunner What food items do you think are most important to stock up on when you visit a fancy party? @Devotary of Spontaneity Can you think of any other interesting questions to ask people? I'm definitely running pretty dry on ideas at this point That is all.

Zachary Holcomb threw open the doors to the Study and entered, resplendent in a finely tailored three-piece cerulean suit. Entrances were important. "Hello, hello." He traded the blot-stained invitation at the door for a fluted glass. "Talbot, you've been holding out on all us city folk. I never knew you had a place this lovely squirreled away." He almost meant it, too. Breezehome was unexpectedly lavish, for the private stomping grounds of a backwater noble. He'd run into Talbot a fair few times, now. A quintessential rich idiot, the man had excellent taste in parties and horrible taste in everything else. He never knew Talbot was connected to the Herons, though. Now there was a name that carried weight, back in Elendel. He scanned the room with trepidation, and experienced a peculiar mix of relief and indignation when none of the other guests seemed to immediately recognize him. At least the festivities wouldn't be ruined. Who knows, Talbot's grand blowout might even be fun. Time to work the room. He sipped his beverage thoughtfully while sidling up to one of the guests in the crowd. "Evening. The name's Zachary Holcomb, and alas I am in sore need of a conversation partner. I don't suppose you would indulge in my silly request? To whom do I have the pleasure of speaking with for the night?"

I can see you have your priorities in the right order Welcome aboard.

Zachary Holcomb had a serious problem. He'd tried his luck with three different parties in the last 48 hours. The grand blowout at the Cett Mansion, of course. The weekly luncheon with the ZoBells, most assuredly. He'd even gotten desperate and finally caved to the incessant stream of invitations to attend the opening event of that dingy little tower the Harmons had just put up, and regretted every minute of it. The problem Zachary faced was gossip. Specifically, a distinct lack of it. The silence spoke of things unspoken to his face. News spread like wildfire, and right now the buzz was all about him. Hard to have a good conversation face-to-face when everyone was talking behind your back. Hard to catch wind of any good scandals when the one everyone was talking about these days was one you were already intimately familiar with. How the rusts had the Harmons of all people already heard all about it? Didn't these people have anything better to do? Like wildfire, indeed. Surely there was a party somewhere he could go to that wasn't ruined. Again, he rifled through his stack of invitations. Again, he came up with only one card that fit the bill. The invitation was a horrendous patchwork of ink blots that some heroic secretary had painstakingly polished to the point of decipherability. Breezehome Manor. In Bilming, of all places. Zachary knew he was scraping the bottom of the barrel, but what choice did he have? (TL;DR I am signing up as Zachary Holcomb, the Socialite)

Sup. This was a fun game. I gotta say that for a game this complicated our GMs did an unreal job of keeping on top of things and making it work. Pyro you did a quite impressively good job of elim-ing I would be interested to see where things would have gone with our PM if I had survived Also a big shoutout to the shouty-shout agency I probably shoulda done more PM'ing of more peoples but you guys were all great. Other people probably have a lot better things to say gamewise since I didn't have a lot of firsthand experience with the different roles, but two minor points of feedback: The Gasper role was quite fun (and I'm so glad that the elims also thought of using the post restriction to fake having the role because I thought that sounded like a super fun idea ). It was also really interesting to change the style of my dialogue a bit, because I usually make these massive analysis posts that answers everything all at once, and I think I maybe learned some new stuff from being forced to communicate in smaller chunks. But at least to me, the store condition was also kinda fiddly in practice. The fact that I was limited to exactly 200 words (and not like 205 words or something) when the boxing reward only kicked in at exactly 200+ words meant that the actual amount of boxings I had was constantly in flux since all of our word counters were behaving slightly differently (heck, even using the same word counter, I sometimes got different results for some of my posts for some reason, which was really confusing). Also, this is probably mainly my own fault, but I had wanted to store cadmium for all of the 3 turns I was alive, and for various reasons I only was able to do so for 1 of them (and even in the case where it succeeded, it was only because Striker made an allowance and let me edit down a post I accidentally made slightly over 200 words). Idk I would be interested to hear what the other Gasper's experience of the role was. It's entirely possible that I am just too accustomed to being able to make larger posts and/or wasn't reading the rules carefully enough and/or was just plain unlucky, and that the other Gasper didn't have difficulty with it. I never experienced it firsthand, but I remember when I got the clarification that the bulletproof vest didn't take an action to use, I thought it sounded pretty strong. For one of the cheaper items in the shop, the fact that it didn't take an action to use, didn't get used up if you weren't attacked, and was still semi-reusable if you were, made it seem like a pretty desirable item to possess. It sounds like people are saying there was too much protection in the late game and this is probably why. Idk I think for many protective abilities you do need an action to use them, so maybe if it just took an action to wear the vest for the night that would help, since you would need to at least weigh whether you think you'll be attacked or if you want to do something else with your action. But, overall my impression of the game is that it was improbably well put together for how ambitious this game was. Seriously I'm not even sure I can recall a game as complicated as this one that ran as smoothly, without it being a rerun that improved on a previous and similar setup. On that subject, I think a rerun of this setup would be spectacular, if you ever want to run one. While sadly it was not my fate to steal everyone's stuff and moneys in life (I was so pleased to be the Thief and get a chance to start Drake's Mass-Murder Hedge Fund 2: Electric Boogaloo), I was determined to do so in death. Everyone who bet against me and Matrim gotta pay up

Interesting. To answer your points: 1. From your phrasing, you sound like you are saying it's better to give the elims control later on in the game? Clarify? I'd say it's very much the opposite. Early in the game the village greatly outnumbers the elims. We have much more control, but don't know how to use it. What we desperately lack is information. So it can be a good thing for the village to sacrifice control in the early game in exchange for information. But in the late game the gap between the village's control and the eliminator's information has shrunk considerably, and it is much more important for the village to fight for every ounce of control it has and not give any of it up. 2. Since you've declined to explain what you mean by this, I have no way of responding to it. I'd really like it if you did explain what you were thinking here, though. Regardless, I'm not sure why my voting patterns are elimy, because I'm not really sure why elim!Drake would waste so much effort stirring things up and drawing attention to himself. What does he gain from it? 3. I will generate much more information in the long run if you keep me alive. I'm not about to stop generating discussion. In any case, I am curious: you are saying that knowing how I flip would be useful, and you may be right, so if I flipped villager, who would you then be more inclined to trust or suspect due to that information? What parts of what TJ said do you agree with? Because as far as I can tell the main thing they said this cycle was that I didn't provide enough information up-front in my reads post, which is something I am a bit inclined to say applies to you as well.

The only person for whom I'm convinced there are enough people willing to vote on to lynch is Experience. To a point, I would rather prioritize accuracy over easiness, and you did already have one vote on you, which is as many votes as anyone else had. While I agree that it is important to be pragmatic about putting your vote somewhere it can actually make a difference, I'm also not sure how I feel about the person I voted for being the one to bring that fact up I'll give you the benefit of the doubt about misunderstanding what I said, though. That is, for the time being, a good enough explanation. Araris. Kynedath is probably my least well-reasoned suspicion, but it's a choice I can go with.

I mean, you might be now. Not really. I feel like I've repeated myself about this a lot, but I don't like targeting people more often than necessary across multiple games, and I recently finished leading a mislynch on Karnage in a different game that is now over. That's why I wanted to pick somebody else on D1. Because D1 lynches are close to random anyway. Does that make sense? But if there's an actual reason to kill Karnage I'm fine with killing them. And in any case I'm not particularly invested in telling anyone else not to kill Karnage. I think they'd be a better lynch than Experience. Yeah I'm not really trying to blame you for the fact that a group of people are lynching Experience. Sorry if it seemed that way. I get that your own vote is the only one you are responsible for. Although I resent the implication that I am not trying hard to create a different lynch Uh. Coda didn't really have the lynch swung off of them. At least, not successfully. Why would I be worried about the votes swinging off of Experience? Swinging the votes off of Experience is largely what I want to happen, which is the part you wanted me to provide reasoning for in the first place. And in any case you haven't ostensibly been involved in any swinging of the votes, this cycle or last, so why would you be concerned by that? I don't get it. I'm absolutely not saying that because X group mislynched last cycle, X group will mislynch again this cycle. There's little or no causal connection there, but I am observing that I think X group is about to create a second mislynch in a row, which I'm not particularly down with. The way things are going we will see in retrospect whether it is indeed a mislynch or not, but you already know my prediction. What is the legitimate reason to suspect Exp? Your wallet is welcome

What Pyro said. Everyone's fine with lynching Experience and discussion has died. Ergo, what are the chances that Experience is part of a team that has a vested interest in protecting them? Not high. In order to deny the elims the ability to exploit "lack of defense = innocence" as a gambit, I'd prefer if Experience stayed in the running as a lynch candidate, but the lack of any serious opposition is still a serious problem, no? I'm not saying said group is elim, I'm saying said group is incorrect. What? What same set of people would be pulling lynch swings? I don't get it. Are you saying the group voting for Experience would not pull 2 lynch swings? Because to my knowledge you guys haven't even pulled even a single lynch swing yet It sounds like you're suggesting here that the elims would want to avoid swinging the vote off of one of their own players for second time in a row. Which, is not something a villager would know anything about. How would you know there was a first time? You were literally my top trust read, but I'm sorry that was just way the heck to suspicious to ignore. Araris.

It's the minutes of the SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! A rather ridiculous agency that engages in activities such as conversing in group PMs, RP, and SHOUTING!!!

Thanks for that (Part the sevententh, the part that was misspelled, as the spell-checker had flame-retardant coffee spilled on it [it’ll make sense later], and the backup spell-checker, a monkey that has been trained to check spells in twelve languages, none of which are english, did no catch the error until it was too late.) Stick: The stick leaned forward, before hopping in front of the table. It supposed it was the representative now, even though it didn't know what it was the representative of. It guessed the lack of mention in the writeup of any shouting meant the RPB was a go. It would have to compose a eulogy now. Confident Indecision Maker: ALL HAIL SHOUTY-SHOUT REPRESENTATIVE FLAMING NINJA STICK!!! Yep gotta write a eulogy I guess Still it's an excuse to RP THE INSANITATION OFFICER: YES!!!... CAN I BE 'THE INSANITATION OFFICER!!!' FOR MY PSEUDONYM ¡¡!!!!! Confident Indecision Maker: I just realized who it was that had claimed seeker to you Stick!!! ALSO I SUPPORT THIS PSEUDONYM!!! (The narrator pauses for a moment to remind the audience that the pseudonyms that appear before the words that comprise the minutes are PSEUDONYMS and thus are not the real identities of the people. Please make an attempt to discover the identities of these people.)

@Ventyl 1) You are a better player than you give yourself credit for 2) I am still suspicious of you. I do think it's a bit suspicious when asking me to defend a slight suspicion takes precedence over commenting on literally anything else in the thread, and your actions after that point of jumping onto the Experience train doesn't exactly break the pattern. Incidentally, I don't see a reason for the Experience train, I do see a similar crowd lynching Experience as who lynched Coda, and it feels like another mislynch. I wouldn't say I'm very great at this game but I'd be really, really, really surprised if Experience flipped elim, the way things are going right now. They are either innocent or they will survive the lynch, and the latter isn't particularly likely. Have a current vote tally. I'll probably edit this to keep it up to date. Vote Tally Experience (4): Araris Valerian, Elandera, Emi, Ventyl Walin (1): The Young Pyromancer Araris Valerian (1): xinoehp512 DrakeMarshall (1): TJ Shade Karnage (1): Ashbringer Ventyl (1): DrakeMarshall Emi (1): Karnage Ashbringer (1): Magestar I will be posting the latest SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! minutes soon. You can find in the bit above the relevant part where I asked Coda to vote to save themselves, if you are interested. That is all.

(Part twelve, a number of months in a year) Stick: The stick wonders who the next representative will be. The stick also wonders what the GM's answer will be. The Great and Mighty Game Master: I'm...not sure I quite understand what the budget proposal is proposing??? Also, have another reminder that the GREAT and MIGHTY GAME MASTER greatly appreciates the SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! very MUCH!!!!!! The Representative: STICK!!! Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to become the next representative of SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!!. If you do not accept it, then CONFIDENT INDECISION MAKER!!! Your mission, should you receive and choose to accept it, is to become the next representative of SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! I leave SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! in your capable hands! Hopefully, by the time you too must pass along command of SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! you will know who is truly worthy of the position!!! OH GREAT AND MIGHTY GAME MASTER!!! The budgetary proposal is suggesting we send the contents of the PM as RP and share the money! Farewell, good people of SHOUTY-SHOUT AGENCY!!! It was an HONOR to serve by your side! :)!!! (Here words were obscured by several large tearstains. The narrator will continue once they decipher them.)