DrakeMarshall
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Everything posted by DrakeMarshall
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Thanks Shara seemed a bit skeptical, but then it was a bit of a conspiracy theory. There were a lot of those, where the faceless immortals were concerned. But couldn't all be bogus, yeah? She paid good money to get some details off of this contact in Elendel, and it was a bunch of lies she'd be having some serious words with him later. "Coffee? Sure, I can probably rustle something up. Harmony knows none of us've been sleeping well enough of late. Too much goin on." Juno wandered away, leaving the untouched plate of food and journal on the floor. With any luck, somebody would be brewing some of the stuff in the main council chamber. These days some of the councilpersons were practically living there, and the city outside wasn't doing too hot, what with the people starting to riot. Sure enough, some considerate soul had set up a pot of coffee on one of the tables. Juno poured it out in two dented cups, throwing several sugar cubes in her own. Probably shoulda asked Shara how she took her coffee but whatever, Juno would just remember the way Shara had gotten it in the tavern the other night and prepare it in roughly the same way. She waved to a few of the other early starters in the council room on her way back to Shara's cubicle. "This good?" She held out Shara's cup. Alright, I think the surviving eliminator team consists of 3 of these 4 people: Ashbringer, Unknown Order, Archer, Devotary. I have more village vibes from basically everyone else so this is largely a process of elimination. Except maybe Dannex, I don't have village vibes from Dannex, they just don't seem to be posting much? Idk what's going on there bc I think they have been online on the shard. Bip has moved up to more of a trust read mainly bc I don't get the vibe that they are the kind of mindgamey player who would suggest 3 elims + thug as the elim!thug. And I also think there is distance between the people I listed. People tend to think distancing means voting or sussing a teammate but imo it more often takes the form of just sort of not addressing a teammate in the thread at all. And I also think that (Devotary excepted) one of those people is the Leecher, for what that's worth. So yeah, I think I would agree with exing any of those 4 people. @Matrim's Dice already said they wanted to vote for Unknown Order so in the interest of having a vote that succeeds I will support that vote, even though I think it is one of the weaker options from my list.
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Will be back to post more in like a half hour but for now: My recommendation is that we do nothing about it for now and carry on trying to execute elims. Right now the Kandra should be on the village's side, bc if the elims outnumber the village it's an automatic loss for the Kandra. If the Kandra knows whats good for them they should very probably be trying to help the village exe elims, at least for now. Also, as long as the eliminators are still roleblocking Araris it isn't really a priority if he is a Kandra. I kinda figured the elims would try to do something to deal with Araris last night, which might be a part of why I didn't make my post before the end of the night. Better if we don't have to use an exe for it. A roleblock is more cautious than the alternative, but it also reveals that they have a roleblock, which is absolutely information that I will make use of. Assuming that Araris is telling the truth about the roleblock, and I can't think of an obvious reason to lie about that, it could either be due to a Firesoul or a Leecher. Firesoul however is much less likely, since it would be much easier to proactively target Araris knowing that he was going to make a kill. So in the very least anyone with allomancy can probably be ruled out. I will think a bit more about who it could be when I get back, since it seems very likely that whoever it is be Evil. Edit: I would appreciate it if somebody posted
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Hey look turns out I woke up. I didn't want to talk about the Kandra overly much last day turn since we had a vote to be working on. And imo there was little reason to bring it up before the end of the night turn either. But I have still been working on finding them, a bit. So the upshot is I think it's Araris. The people Araris decided to kill aren't necessarily what I'd expect for a coinshot imo. It would be really, really weird if the Kandra had no kills. In LG66 they had a kill every other cycle, and if anything that wasn't enough. Others have already guessed that they would have one kill every night in this game, so where is that kill? Normally, I would not expect a Kandra to claim coinshot, but after books saw Araris make a kill, what choice would he have? The eliminators might target him more but he could at least ask the village for protection. The alternative was a certain execution after Books posted. What Illwei said about "I'm okay with being suspected but not for the wrong reasons." I could certainly imagine Kandra!Araris taking issue with being suspected of being an eliminator. My roles analysis bingo is going reasonably well and pretty much the only active people I think could still be Kandra are Ashbringer or Araris (which is a pretty funny coincidence considering that they were the kandras from LG66). And yes, this role analysis is far from all-knowing, but that is why I supplied a bunch of other reasons in addition to this one. That is all.
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It wasn't quite belief that she saw in Shara's eyes, but something had resonated. "Certainly." Juno smiled, and began speaking in the cadence of a practiced storyteller. "I believe they're real. See, it's well-known at least by those of us in the know that the meddling of one such being supposedly had a big role to play in the Republic's founding history... Not a gentle role. The way I hear it told from holy sorts of folks, these 'immortals' are s'posed to be guides and guardians and whatnot, but this one had a body count." "Things've been moving pretty fast since Garmet went off the rails, so to speak. So I been asking myself, are we gonna see a repeat performance? Another immortal being meddling in our political affairs, or maybe even the same one? We don't really know much that's concrete about these creatures or their motives, yeah?" "But we do know at least some stuff. They're called 'faceless' for a reason, see? They say the immortals can change faces to look like anyone they please, which is why they're just rusting difficult to find, and not for lack of anyone tryin. But they gotta hide in plain sight, and what with general the number of casualties racking up, I reckon that one of these 'faceless' is out hunting. Could be anyone. I mean, um, I don't think it could be you, no offense but I think you aren't subtle enough, but you get what I mean." The faceless immortals were supposed to be elusive, not to mention, well, immortal. While impressive, if the faceless responded to dangerous situations merely by leaning on the the kind of unnatural brute force and persistence that Shara here had demonstrated, people would know about them. People would have caught them. "Are you with me so far?"
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Shara hesitated, a startled expression flitting across her face, but it was gone and replaced with a smile soon enough and Juno was left wondering if it had been a trick of the light. Probably not. Lotta folks were on edge these days. Anyone could be a part of the conspiracy, or so the coppers insisted. "That's good to hear. The guards have been sorta, um, overly exuberant, lately." An understatement, that. One would think they'd go through your things before staging a public execution, not after. Almost enough to make a soul wonder if they were in on it with the rebs. "What I'm here for? Why, the quality of your company, of course! There's only so much bickering you can do before it gets tiresome, and you seem like a sharp enough sort, for one of the folks from Elendel." Somebody I can deal with after the revolution blows over, she left unsaid. Nobody knew who would come out on top after the dust cleared, but it was plain as day that the here and now would be some kind of pivot in the republic's history. It would pay to have friends among the ranks of whoever won. "Also I think I found one of the faceless immortals," she added in a conspiratorial whisper and a crooked grin. "Can you keep a secret?"
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Juno sauntered into the room, which honesty compelled her to admit was more of a guarded office cubicle than a proper cell, sporting a black eye and a dingy journal under one arm. Some nutter with a doll had decked her by the refreshments table and things had gotten a bit out of hand, but the only important part was that as far as Juno was concerned she came out ahead in that kerfuffle. The coppers were such spoilsports sometimes. "Sup, Shara," she greeted her friend. "I'm here unofficially, 'course. Not really my job on the board. But I figure you might be able to help me with some questions I been asking myself, yeah? Or at least, maybe you'd like some company? I brought food." Juno extended a plate loaded with cheese and bread from the refreshments table, or what was left of it after her fight anyways. She also ditched the empty journal, since it was mainly just for show. Juno had no need of such devices to remember her conversations, not with the polished copper wristwatch that adorned her arm. "Ah, maybe just don't tell the coppers bout the food, though. They wouldn't like it. They get funny ideas bout people sneaking in metal filings that way." "Anyways, um, how have you been doing?"
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Hm. How do you know that Araris and Biplet were the only ones who saw it? They might just be the ones who posted. Somebody else could have seen and responded to it without feeling the need to post anything. But possibly a more likely explanation... What if the order to sooth one of our votes happened before we voted on Biplet? I had been on Ashbringer for quite some time before then, for example, and at least for some of that time it looked like Ashbringer might be in the running for the exe. If that is the vote that got soothed, that would be... Interesting. I still think a Soother is more likely tbh. And I will do my best to find them, if they are to be found, for the sake of my role analysis bingo sheet. But if it turns out that there isn't a Soother, then I'm pretty sure that means Matrim lied. Which would be pretty funny and might also explain why they decided to emphasize that they are "just" a Thief. But I'm not sure what would be to gain from lying about this, is the thing. Also for the record I am confused by people saying things like E/E on people who they don't particularly think are eliminators.
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same
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I very disagree At best, it was just one lie, and only one thief who claimed because of it But seriously, Matrim claimed because I pressured them to after narrowing down their role, which has very little to do with the lie I told. As for you, I really don't think you had to claim over this and I'm not the biggest fan if you are wanting to hold me "largely" responsible for that, bc it was definitely your decision even if I played a role in it. Still, I can see the logic in you claiming, wanting to address a potential discrepancy. Imma say thinking "lies=evil" is definitely more of a villager move on your part. I was rather more concerned that a thief would piece things together and try to quietly steal from me at the next opportunity not that it would have hypothetically gone well for them, rather than sharing the discrepancies they found with the thread and therefore outing themselves. Now that you mention it, the D2 vote manipulation is quite fascinating. Not necessarily fascinating in a way that leads to justifying a vote, idk how I feel about that, but still really interesting. Because, one of the votes on Biplet got canceled. There were four votes: TJ, Mist, Drake Matrim. At this point, you seem to be assuming one of those four people cancelled their own vote with feruchemy, which... Why? Like you said, it clearly can't be TJ or Mist. But in addition to that, Matrim and myself have both claimed, and those roles we claimed were confirmable. So you are additionally assuming one of us is lying about not having a second role. Except that is also mechanically impossible for me, or at least highly unlikely, since nobody should be able to start the game as a double ferring (or a double misting for that matter). So if we go down that road, then the only explanation is that Matrim must have lied about not having a second role. But again, why not consider the possibility of a Soother? Personally, I find that more likely, and I have a hunch I know who that Soother is. Alright, fair enough. Not that it really matters to the vote at this point, but this does have some effect on my read. :thonk: Biplet was originally the person who suggested the possibility of a 3 elim team and a Thug... Wait wait for real I feel u fam... I really, really do. Me
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A tie it is, then. Well, I'm certainly fine with that.
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Clarify? I would assume that E/E would have to mean Araris is an eliminator and I wasn't under the impression that you thought this was the case. And besides, Books at least gets a pass for their vote on Araris, since I don't think they have come online since their initial vote after revealing that Araris killed Manukos.
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Hmmm... I am village reading one or two parts of this, but I have some questions. To be clear, are you saying suspicion did play an important part in deciding who you would target, or no? Like, I was under the impression from your posts earlier in the turn that you didn't steal from me basically because you were just waiting to fatten me up, not bc you village read me more than you did Archer. Also, I am a bit curious whether or not using theft for scanning is a thing you were thinking about / if you agree with it at all. Voting based on role alone is a terrible idea, but like Archer(?) said, voting based on how one uses a role is significantly more justified. I feel a little guilty for asking Matrim to claim and then voting on them based on the contents of that claim, but I would not disqualify the reasoning just because of that. Cool, that was my top guess for what your second role is, especially after I ruled out Archer being a Thief, but it's nice to have confirmation. I'm not sure why you chose to claim right now, but I'm assuming it had something to do with the shade being thrown at the 'other Thief', and you preferring to come out in the open on your own terms, instead of getting caught at some point and probably getting exed. So yeah it's time I said that the whole thing about me getting stolen from was complete BS The goal was to give thieves a reason to hesitate from stealing from me. As far as I'm concerned there is nothing dishonorable about bluffing off a prospective thief But with both thieves out in the open there is no reason for me to keep pretending. It would only cause more confusion than necessary. And plus, if one of you does pilfer my boxings now, I'll know exactly who to pursue for vengeance Edit: Vote Tally Biplet (3): Araris Valerian, Archer, Matrim's Dice Araris Valerian (2): Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes Matrim's Dice (2): DrakeMarshall, Illwei
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Interesting. Thank you for contributing to my game of role analysis bingo. So, idk really which way this points, but I do maybe have some perspective to offer here, as the original Thief from LG66. And the first thing is that when I was a Thief, I wanted boxings If it came down to using my role on a probable villager or not using it at all, I would have stolen from a probable villager, in a heartbeat. Because even just consolidating moneys into one place was good for the village, and if that one place happened to be "Drake", well that is purely besides the point I seriously intended to buy the lerasium alloy before the eliminators could, and I was the only person whose alignment I could be certain of, so of course my hands were the best place for everyone else's stuff But the second thing is, I personally also did go out of my way to steal from the more active players who I also suspected. Because, yeah, I would rather set back the eliminators than villagers. If my own benefit coincides with the harming of eliminators that is obviously ideal. More than that, though, targeting people you think are villagers is actually contrary to maximizing profits as a Thief. People who have killed are going to have more money in their pocket, so stealing from them is gonna make you richer. More than that, you can use theft as a crude but effective form of scanning. You should have an idea of how, given some of the contents of our PM conversation from D1. All you have to do is steal from somebody who has more boxings than they should otherwise have, and viola, you caught either another thief or a murderer. ...hm. Walking myself through that, I might have just convinced myself that Matrim is unlikely to be a village Thief. I wouldn't necessarily blame a village!Matrim for not seeing things the same way, as some of my thought processes were... Unconventional. But I do think it lowers the probability of a village!Matrim. I could definitely see village!Thief stealing from rich person they have little read on one way or another, but stealing from people you consistently put on your trust list just... Isn't a great look. And, yeah, Matrim stole from Szeth, who they were genuinely vocally suspicious of on D1 (I actually did go back and check, to make sure it really originated on D1 and not later). And this almost made me hold back from voting. But, thing is, Szeth was also the person who earned the second largest number of boxings in D1. The explanation "Matrim is trying to maximize boxings while also targeting people they suspect" only works for 1 out of 2 thefts, while the explanation "Matrim is trying to maximize boxings, period" works for 2 out of 2 thefts. Like, if Matrim had wanted to steal from somebody who had a comparable amount of boxings as Archer, and who was also on Matrim's sus list, that would have been doable. There were options that fit the bill. Biplet, for one, which is.. Hm. Well then I think I will know where to look next if Matrim does flip elim. Matrim I'm sorry for outing you as a Thief and now posting what is effectively my second "why Matrim is Evil" rant of the turn But, um, I do think you're Evil.
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I looked it up and still not sure if I really get it but I realize we're already a decent amount into the cycle so for now imma get a vote out there and suggest Devotary and see what happens. Here is your complementary voting tally: Vote Tally Araris Valerian (2): Flyingbooks, Szeth_Pancakes Devotary of Spontaneity (1): DrakeMarshall Matrim's Dice (1): Illwei Szeth_Pancakes (1): Matrim's Dice @Flyingbooks I feel that information you would find relevant has come to light since you made your vote.
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I'm sure it is possible in the abstract for the Kandra to have roles, but it would be fairly surprising, I think. Like if the Kandra is just randomly also a Misting, I have a hard time picturing that. It would make more sense to just give them whatever powers you wanted them to have as part of a special role. Yeah, I'm making a bet about how I think secret mechanics work, but how else do we deal with secret mechanics? Again, I don't think it's wrong to pursue the Kandra, if you think you have a reasonable chance at succeeding. I've seen games where the thread was largely consumed by discussion about some serial killer role or another, and this is not that. I'm usually the one who complains when people do this But I very much disagree with the notion that ever bringing up the Kandra is inherently bad. But tbh this is not really a useful direction of conversation. The best way to show that I'm still in the business of catching eliminators this cycle is to actually start doing some of that. So for starter's here's the reads list I've been working on. Color Key Strong Village Read Village Read Slight Village Read Neutral / No Read Slight Elim Read Elim Read Strong Elim Read Player List Ashbringer Biplet Szeth_Pancakes Matrim's Dice Araris Valerian The Unknown Order DrakeMarshall Archer Illwei (formerly Ventyl) Devotary of Spontaneity Dannex Flyingbooks I don't really have any strong suspicions, sadly, but even just the process of elimination yields pretty decent odds for hitting an evil player, I think. Pending a more in-detail analysis of some of these players it is likely that I will vote for one of the orange names.
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When before have I fixated on the Kandra?? I am confused, since before this turn I maybe mentioned the kandra once in a single post. My general stance has been that both kandra and elims need to die, and I will favor killing elims, but if there is strong enough reason to believe somebody is a kandra that is still definitely a good execution. Matrim is possibly still a good vote for reasons other than Kandra shenanigans, and when I finish analyzing certain other things I might join you on that. The extra action is how I was able to use Archivist twice in one cycle. Again, although you get 2 actions in a cycle, they are normally required to be distinct. So 1 of those 2 actions is always going to be wasted for any of us that only have 1 role. However, the extra actions granted by nicrobursting and the like can ignore this restriction. As for the vote on Araris... The writeup does not officially distinguish spikes from coinshots from elim kills from other things. IIRC everyone who died in that writeup was "spiked" so I would take this with a grain of salt. However, there are also reasons I will get into later for why I still probably wouldn't trust Araris just this yet.
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Oh, huh. Interesting. Fair's fair, I am an Archivist. This is a big part of why I have been doing role analysis as a thing this game. Between my ability giving me random tidbits, the claims I've gotten, and extrapolation based on hints like the ones you gave, I've been steadily trying to fill in my chart for everybody's roles. After having received clarification on how Archivist works, I am also pretty sure I am the one Manukos saw targeting them on N1, during which I learned they were a Connector. I was a little conflicted about not sharing the existence of such a potentially dangerous role, but it also would have been bad to disclose such a powerful role to the elims if Manukos was village, so I held off on saying anything. Matrim for now. I am still a bit suspicious of you, but I don't think you could be the Kandra. Just one question though, why would you steal from Archer? Haven't you been reading them as village? Because after scratching my head over it for a while trying to understand it, I'm pretty sure that's why Archer asked me if I was a thief. I'm one of the only people who vocally does not especially trust Archer. Speaking of which: I believe my conversation with Matrim should now answer that to your satisfaction. Are you a Thief?
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Okay fair enough I'll be clearer about what I'm getting at. I think there is a pretty high chance that you are the Kandra. Part of this is based on a combination of mild suspicion while also thinking you probably aren't on an eliminator team. Part of this is based on role analysis. And while role analysis is generally not a great way to catch eliminators, it is a significantly better way to catch a particular role, and I would be very very surprised if the Kandra were not a particular role. I figure you probably aren't Ferring. If you were a Ferring, you would interact regularly with the fact that storing metals comes with various drawbacks, and I think you probably wouldn't have forgotten that having your vote cancelled can be caused by feruchemy as well as by soothing. Especially because you had one of those roles in the last run of this game. I figure you probably aren't something that has run into certain barriers of the action economy in this game. You asked me why a second theft in one cycle would imply the existence of two thieves. I am pretty sure that if you only had one action you could take that was allowed on either day or night turns, you would have quickly run into the fact that you can't actually use it in both day and night turns, due to this snippet from the rules: "You have two actions per cycle, which must be distinct actions." This rules out most of the types of pure mistings that can act on either day or night. I figure you probably aren't a hazekiller. You remarked that you had to check back in the rules doc to see what that role even did when Azmine died. I figure you probably aren't a vig killing role. Initially this was because you strongly implied on N1 that you would have claimed if you were one of the killing roles, but now it is because Illwei and Araris have both claimed. I figure you probably aren't an Investigator or Lurcher, mainly because these are both very powerful roles and I would be fairly surprised if a second one existed. I figure you probably aren't a Rioter, because I think we would have seen evidence of rioting by now if you were one. Also because one of those already died. If my reasoning is sound this leaves the following possibilities: Soother, Thief, Thug, Kandra. If you're a Soother (which by the way you said you aren't ), that should be easy to confirm since I imagine you have used it at some point. If you're a Thief, then again that should be easy to confirm. In which case, I want to know if you stole from me Also if there really are two thieves I'd be a little surprised if both are villagers, but we can cross that bridge when we get to it. If you're a Thug then at least you could survive being exed, although also if you had made this claim I might have just retracted. If you are the Kandra, which to be honest is the vibe that I've been getting, then you have a Serial Killer wincon and my vote is well placed. I could probably be persuaded to try to vote for an eliminator instead of who I suspect to be the Kandra, but regardless, I didn't think it would be a good idea for me to just sit on this, hence the vote, the request for a claim, and this elaboration. That is all.
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This vegetables knife is confusing to me.
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So first of all, Matrim's Dice (@Matrim's Dice) I don't suppose I could ask you nicely to claim a role? I believe I have a decently good reason for asking. I might yet be wrong about that, but also, know that I'm not asking you to do something I'm not prepared to do myself. I believe in making fair exchanges for information, quid pro quo and all that, so if you're willing to reveal your role, I guess I'll reveal mine too.
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Hm, that.. That's a very good point. Okay cool so I'm convinced that Illwei is probably a villager now. Interesting. Do you suppose this is what got manukos killed? And if so, why? I, uh, think they would probably definitely know if they had been nicrobursted or pulsed, so I'm not completely sure I follow the roles analysis here, but yeah. Seems legit. I was already sort of planning on joining an Araris wagon if we had one. Also, I trust books more or less, and we shouldn't be at LyLo just yet, so there isn't much reason to hold off. In fairness, Manukos specifically requested not to be treated as a returning player. I stand corrected. Araris. I had entertained the possibility of you being a hemalurgist or something that killed Lotus, mainly because it is easy to rule out a lot of other players from doing something like that on N1, but for some reason I had discarded the possibility. Whoops. Well, at least that means the discussion today will be more interesting than just "everyone vote Araris." That woulda probably made for a lousy discussion. I have some ideas for who I would vote for next, but I will explain them in a new post.
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Hmm.. Yeah actually, I think you're right, the vote manip that happened today is probably a Soother. You're reasoning is sound, especially because the only person who voted for Biplet who could possibly be a ferring of one of those types is Mist. There was also two vote manips that happened on D1, so I don't think it's off base to assume at least one of those ones was from a ferring, though. Do you mean you don't do votes very late in the game or very early in the game? Also if Biplet is your strongest read do we get to know if it's elim or village read? Oh look, Matrim's Dice just asked you the exact same two questions whoops. Anyways as always your sharing of reads is appreciated. Personally I don't put you and manukos in quite the same category of people who decline to vote, and part of that is for the thing you said, which is that you weren't even online D1. And if this isn't IKYK bait I don't know what is But hey if you die at least I will have an excuse to continue distancing myself from Araris with votes so really everything is going according to plan
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I suppose. Sharing the contents of PMs is certainly contrary to the whole 'aura of mystique' thing I was going for, but I hadn't really thought of it as an alignment thing. Out of curiosity, why are you learning towards it being a soother? Not that it matters overly much, but my thought process is sorta that there's already a rioter dead which is a fairly similar role, and that there are several distinct possibilities for ferrings that do this, none of which seem individually any less likely than there being a soother. So I'm a bit surprised at this. I don't think there's any reason to disbelieve that Ventyl/Illwei had a kill ability of some kind and killed Azmine, so yeah, that part of the claim definitely makes sense. I'm not completely decided on the rest of it. Unsure what to make of stating that suspicion was "directly Ventyl-based". In a weird way it feels like a villagery thing, like with most elims not wanting to admit that they were voting for reasons that might be other than catching elims. But also feels like wanting a safe vote, like Ventyl was in part a good sidewagony gig bc they clearly didn't mind you voting on them, but that is probably no longer the case with a new person at the reins. So idk. This tbh
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...no?
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The plot thickens I have very mixed feelings about manukos. Manukos scares me i might have a hint abt their role Interesting. Wait wait when did Szeth become an elim read? I tend to agree with the village read on books, actually. even though im very slightly miffed at their vote I mean, I guess. I would be pretty surprised if the elims would spend a Hemalurgist kill on N1, though. Well, I would definitely be surprised if all of the elims are doing what Lotus is doing. Probably there is a decent spread of playstyles in their team. Although that may be a statistical fallacy, idk I'm a math major and I never had to take stats for some reason. Szeth if you pocketed me we will have words when this game is over Biplet please forgive me I liked our PM but not really in a way that would prevent me from voting to kill you. In the nicest way possible. And you gotta admit though TJ's last advice post to the village definitely reads like a last advice post to the village. Like I've done that before as an elim but it would definitely have been very much going the extra mile.
