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Everything posted by Amanuensis
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Long Game 91: A Fresh Start in Shinovar
Amanuensis replied to Ashbringer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
*bows respectively* Hello. Silho right? Don't believe we've met! Hey Araris! I can't promise to be 100% Aman this game (currently back in college and things are getting especially busy before the holidays) but will do my best and at the very least be active enough to vote. I was following along early game and caught Stick myself; was very happy when y'all got her outta here I cleared you and Archer for that reason, and I'm confident in V!Tani for reasons Kas mentioned early on in the game (basically a vibe check). Everyone else is kind of a meh blob for me tho. Is there anything you all can tell me to help solidify the rest of those reads?- 1292 replies
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- turkey season
- sorry for minorly cursed rollover time
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And yes btw I'm legitimately insulted. If one of you isn't an elim than wow. Round of applause.
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Nope. I wanted to die a few days ago. And frankly in a terrible mood, so I'm tapping out I hope every villager that votes me feels horrible after. Byeee
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Y'all, I haven't read a word anyone has put into this sudden case on me and I don't plan on it. It's dumb. And I'm not sorry for saying that. I'd be the one bussed. Not the other way around. And I just don't care I did my job. I got two elims. Good luck. Cya next time (if there is a next time).
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Amanuensis GL
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I just feel this is more in line with Village Striker than Elim Striker, based on experience with him; not precisely based on experience with mafia as a whole. Yeah it's sus on a surface level but I don't think it's explicitly sus for him; he knows better. Ultimately I don't know what to say otherwise kill him and we'll see. I have no reason to defend him and I get why people want to get rid of him; I just will be more surprised if he flips red than green.
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Trust =/= "feel pretty good about these slots" I'm not infallible I was wrong about you in the Neighborhood game and you basically defeated Town single-handedly. I've been wrong thinking Mat was a wolf and tunneled him all D1 of MR56, and it turned out he was a Village PR. These are just two recent examples among a dozen or so in the last few games I've played. I might be right now and then, but I'm not perfect, and so in every game I operate under the assumption that I'm off about someone. I can see a reality where Striker is a wolf even if I don't believe it myself. The fact that several people (who all can't be wolves) are saying he is suspicious and they want to kill him means they could see or feel something I'm failing to, which I accept. Mafia is a game of majority opinion, so I'm a firm believer in giving everyone their voice and a choice. Plus I'm not too worried if we're wrong at this point. We managed to nail two wolves in as many turns, so it's not like parity is a stone's throw away.
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So what you're saying is we should flip you?
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This wagon formation always catches- Ahem. Memes aside, I'm fine with thi- Oh. Ninja'd by Mat voting Striker. @StrikerEZ wanna add your vote to Devo for a tie?
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Oh yeah, I don't trust Shadow much more than I do you Kas but I do think she's pragmatic enough to have killed me last night over Araris tbh. Also that she really did nothing to stop Illwei from dying. Granted, it might have looked bad if she tried and Illwei flipped later, but I think e!Shadow could have talked herself out of any suspicion and thus would have made sure they didn't lose a second teammate - especially the roleblocker. The problem is, I'm slightly apprehensive believing that You, Me, Orlok, and TJ are all Village, especially with three of you in a doc together. If one of you isn't evil, then your Empire is a clear village powerhouse, and I'm somewhat amazed that the elims don't seem concerned about letting that continue? The fact that you're vouching for them all is probably what concerns me the most about you. Like, what elims balance out a V!Aman/Kas/Orlok/TJ distro? I feel like Devo is a good fit alongside Archer and Illwei, which is part of why I don't know if I'll ever stop tunneling her, but who else? Mat isn't a bad counter either, but that would mean Illwei volunteered to die so Mat could regain some cred after me pressing him since D1 and others jumping on board... I'm at the point where like, I kinda just want us to clear out half the players with a big tied yeet and pray? xD If someone put a gun to my head right now and I had to kill three players... It'd probably be Devo, Mat, and Kas tbh (sorry friends). Just because I feel you three give the most info + have the greatest possibilities of being a deep wolf this game. But I'm just one guy with one vote and rn I'm keeping it on Devo.
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Oh? I'm very curious to hear that argument TBH I basically trust no one right now xD everyone is kinda floating around in this soupy "I have no idea" mess Like, for reasons that I'm not sure I can articulate in a convincing way, I feel pretty good about these slots: Bort (lol this one is just tonal really, you don't feel as rigid as you did in MR57) Tani (I'd be really surprised if their interactions with Illwei were E/E) Striker (just so blatantly weirdChamp that I'd be surprised; plus there's like, something I've noticed he does as elim that might be a tell and I haven't seen it this game - very possible that he's adapted since I've kind of mentioned it before in MR57, just without calling it a tell) Baker (it's possible they dropped a vote on partner!illwei and let it sit but idk, that's not the feel I get from them, with or without explanations) Of these four, I could only see e!Striker or e!Baker keeping me alive. Beyond them, I could see e!Kas not wanting to kill me so I can put him out of his misery and tbh, I'm at the point where I do think he's the most likely elim from his Empire (Shadow/Orlok/TJ) but their doc could very well be uncompromised, so not willing to pursue that right now. JNV technically has incentive to keep me around so he's not alone in our Empire doc (Sibling is barely active) but I'd imagine the elim doc would scratch the same loneliness itch - that said, Archer does say doing math is an elim and he even said it this game about JNV IIRC, which could maybe be a partner distancing thing but idk. Has anyone gone back to look at Araris' suspicions? I don't recall him really having any beyond Bort/Striker but... I also don't really see him being killed to relieve pressure. It was either a role phishing kill or a low info kill because someone more high profile wants to blend in (or for the aforementioned keeping me around to protect them). TBH I think we should just yeet Devo and Striker today and hope for the best.
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If you could vote out 3 players today (2 more on top of Striker) who are the others and why?
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I'ma be sad if Striker is an elim that pocketed me by open wolfing but hrm, that would mean his interactions with Illwei were E/E on that subject? Idk probably just v!Striker imo
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Oh right, I think that's the biggest thing that weirds me out with Archer/Devo/Illwei. Why did neither Archer or Illwei ever vote Devotary when Kas and I were both pushing her? Why does E!Archer prefer Thaid over Devotary on D1? Why does E!Illwei prefer Mat over Devotary on D2? ED1T: Like, if I was in their shoes, I'd definitely ML Devo and point fingers at the people that were pushing Devo harder. Thaid D1 is such a boring ML because it doesn't really lead anywhere? Mat was obviously doing more by D2 so why prefer Mat over Devo, who has mostly been skating by in comparison? Devo either they were both deliberately trying to make you look like a teammate or you just are one. Until I see something explicitly village from you, I can't buy the framing possibility. Even cutting out the role theory, bussing is a great way for elims to gain cred when allies seem like a foregone conclusion. While I'm not refusing to believe that Archer wasn't bussed, what I care most about is what players do after they self-prez. I just haven't seen a desire to solve so that + Experience vote + never been voted by two known elims + rapidly shrinking PoE leave me kinda stuck here. ...that all said, I STILL DON'T GET WHY I'M ALIVE. Elims banking on me tunneling you out and organizing a mass village grave? I must trust one of them when I shouldn't or else they'd want me gone ASAP. Bleh. @Ashbringer cuz vote
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Heh sorry, not me at least. I've been leaning village for Araris. Would have shot a player that would have given more info too. That's something I didn't consider tho. Assumed we'd see a failed kill like someone was protected but roleblocking stops it from happening all together. If Araris was vigilante'd and the elim kill was roleblocked... Will the real Dakhor Monk please stand up? Please stand up? (Please stand up?) ED1T: Both Araris and Experience are viewing the thread rn and I'm sad While the above is a stanza from a proto-song written by 7-year-old Kon after the wraith possession of his older brother Rin and brutal gravity based magic murder of their mother Kir, I found it oddly fitting in how depressed I am BECAUSE I'M STILL NOT DEAD
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Please do. Btw everyone I'm not a Dakhor Monk I just decided to go with what Kas said to get some discussion going / see how the elims would react. Killing Araris is not what I'd expect, so now I'm just confuzzled. @The Baker I consider it my duty to vote Kasimir if he is evil, and I know he will thank me after. At the same time, I will never forgive myself if I vote Kasimir and he isn't evil. So if you are really sure you're gonna need to convince me. Are you an Elantrian that saw him visit Araris last night or something?
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Sigh Thoughts pending, must imbibe coffee Should have just Dakhor'd myself >:( @StrikerEZ @Tani did Araris imply he had a role in your doc?
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Hrm. @StrikerEZ tell me about your reasons for the players in your conf town and totally wolf categories. Just noticed Baker, Tani, and JNV are in the first, while Illwei, Devo, and Araris are in the second. I'm especially interested in your illwei read at the time
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I actually proposed this exact thing in our doc and then was VERY SCARED when you suddenly posted the same idea
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- how about village murder
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You're not dumb I'm gonna kill someone tonight >:) ED1T: Yeah Tani Towni imo
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Devo has brought up Tani potentially faking some kind of weird doc thing with Illwei/Baker, so maybe feel her out more. Personally, I think Tani is likely village? But I've been going light on the analysis so that's really a vibe thing, and she's not posted too much anyway. Sibling could use some prodding to get involved more / give thoughts, but I wouldn't vote them out just for being a low-impact new player. Araris might be someone to consider since they've mostly been hands-off this game other than interactions with you and Striker, who I'm village leaning currently, so not a wonderful look for him? Those four are kind of my poe right now based on D2 events, but I am fairly worried about there being a wolf among Kas, Shadow, and TJ. I wouldn't call them priorities for D3, but people should be keeping tabs on them just in case. ED1T: I'll probably (or at least try) to do a proper reads list / tier list by the end of this turn, but tbh no promises because I think I've done enough + don't have it in me to do much more. I have the utmost confidence in the village to figure things without me
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It's definitely possible they decided to do something like Orlok/You/Me did in MR57 but very high-risk play, especially with the fact that ties result in multiple deaths. Voting now has a multiplicative amount of power which could wipe them all out in one round, so I feel like Mat would be concerned about that. Plus he 4th voted Illwei unprompted which... she could have told him to get her out of the game for long game credit, but I don't think I'd kill Mat tomorrow for that small possibilty. Better to look into other potential suspects first then revisit Mat if nothing else shakes out.
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Okie, thank you. I do agree that Illwei said a few things that made me think twice about her. Like this exchange, for example You have to admit It's funny Spoken like a true psycho killer I unironically felt that was her playing with us like "haha look how funny I am for killing Experience" without explicitly saying she did it I still think Striker is Village, but since he's very much willing to die in a tie, y'all can make sure he's in a big one with like 2 or 3 other suspects tomorrow Mat is... something. I still have mixed feelings about him, but Illwei did vote him, and Mat did vote Illwei, so... benefit of the doubt? Idk. I'm obviously not privy to your doc and Devo's activity in there, but I'm really curious why she wants to live so badly. Villagers should be inherently suicidal like Kas, Striker, and I
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I'm willing to entertain this. Who would you have voted yesterday if you could? (I noticed you didn't vote just now) Who would you like me to kill tonight most?
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Hm true, roleblocker is probably the most important role for them, but I could see Devo being a doctor or vigilante. Perhaps they wanted to maximize the effectiveness of a second kill by hitting someone with a role (Illwei's role implies there are a decent number of village roles imo). Either way, you're right; that's a point in Devo's favor. I'm slightly concerned that Mat is protecting Devo because they're E/V and e!Mat doesn't want to draw further scrutiny by losing a 2nd member of his Empire + hoping that him being right about Devo will look good for him after the flip. That would mean hard distancing from Illwei like I did with Orlok/Bort in MR57 tho, which I'm not inclined to believe atp. Bort is the other person in their doc and he also voted Illwei, so idk, I really do think he's just V!Bort right now. Granted I don't have the same TMI I did in MR57, but I just don't feel it; @Bort I'd very much like you to chime in tho, since you did help us kill Illwei. What led to you voting her anyway? If someone really wants another player killed tonight, now is when you should begin pitching me your case on them And no Shadow, I will not shoot Striker xD
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