Amanuensis
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Everything posted by Amanuensis
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Town won. Only game to do it without going to lynch or lose with two villagers and one eliminator. Right now we are waiting for everyone to send in their votes to see who is moving straight to the finale, and then a few other players will be chosen by a jury of last year's finalists for a second chance at qualifying for the last game.
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Nah. Just laziness. And the fact that right now adding my vote to a 10 person wagon doesn't really matter. Plus I'm trying to keep my streak of voting for a different eliminator everyday going (in G10 on D1 I voted Jony, D2 Mido, D3 TPA, and now D1 of this game, Yitzi, assuming I'm right). Tempted to see how far I can push it
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Awe, thanks We still have quite a while until the turn ends... what else can we talk about? Hmm.
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If Yitzi is village, I might actually start taking you serious.
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I really do think that Aster's D1 progression was good. It's possible that, given Rand was in the lead before Jon accumulated votes, that he decided Rand was probably evil, and given my hard defense of him, that lynching either of us would solve that concern. I just don't like the fact he was dodging my questions about Yitzi, which could be explained as him just not thinking too much about him up until that point, but also be because he wanted to avoid looking at a teammate. Ultimately, even counting today's actions, I think Aster could go either way. Seonid, who I believe is town (partly due to tone, partly due to him being one of few players to vote on Yitzi before the general consensus decided it was a good idea) voted on me due to paranoia, so I won't discount a similar progression for Aster. Plus there's also the fact I could be completely wrong about Yitzi, which throws this entire theory out of the loop, which is why it's probably best to lynch Yitzi first and reexamine things from there.
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(9) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, Arinian, Dalinar Kholin, asterion137, Arraenae, The Flash, StrikerEZ, BrightnessRadiant, _Stick_ (5) asterion137: randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, Yitzi2, Straw, (3) randuir: OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) BrightnessRadiant: STINK, (1) Crimsn-Wolf: cloudjumper, You probably did. I think that Aster has a very good chance of being evil, if I'm right about Yitzi. Straw might even be, given Yitzi's soft and indirect defense of him early on in D1, on top of him voting for the Randwagon to counter it. They're probably not all three evil together, given that Aster did vote for Straw when the Randwagon got ahead, but it is something to consider. With both Yitzi and Straw voting for Aster right now, it's hard to tell. It could be a bus, but we shouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of Aster being good. That's basically why Yitzi is my preferred lynch. If people want, I can point out the posts Yitzi has made that, to me, absolutely prove he's an eliminator, but I would probably rather see people go over what he's said and see if they can find them on their own. Like I said, I really don't want to become a mayor and direct people, especially since I'm wrong just as often as I am right, especially early on in the game (the first day of my Championship Game, I defended two different eliminators from attacks by villagers). The best thing, in my opinion, any player can do is follow their own heart and thought processes. It's rare to learn anything when you just follow the crowd, both as the individual and for the observers. Ninja'd by Stick doing her own tally
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It did, yes. You'll notice I haven't done a single wall post this game, for example, and that my post count has probably doubled due to me attempting more "stream of conscious" and "real-time interacton" style play. I think it's probably best to lynch Yitzi today, having said all of this. I've revealed my trump card, which means that if I'm right about him, anything we could learn from this point forward is not going to help too much. @BrightnessRadiant, @randuir, @TheMightyLopen, @Straw, @Arraenae, @StrikerEZ: would you be willing to vote for Yitzi over Aster?
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Wilson and I had a discussion around halfway through D1 about how observing (and playing, in my case) this year's Mafia Championship has impacted quite a few players.
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It's not exactly alignment indicative. I think I explained the theory behind "negative space hunting," which consists of narrowing down the players who are not demonstrating significant tells for either alignment, which generally means they're an eliminator who is comfortable with the state of the game and not interested in getting involved. As we can each only control our own participation, it's each villager's responsibility to talk things out and form opinions on each other. For those lacking input, it's up to the rest of us to encourage them to do so, which generally is more revealing of their perspective when adequate pressure is applied (the lynch). What this does is show who's genuinely trying to solve the game, and who already knows the answers and is just putting on an act of solving. The way to differentiate the two ultimately boils down to tone, but seeing their observations of other players, as well as their votes, gives us a slew of interactions to later analyze when the player in question is revealed good or evil. Everyone on that list I posted in the beginning of the game are players who I have not seen enough town tells to determine they can probably be good. I have actually narrowed it down a little due to conversations that have taken place this turn, but I'll save that discussion for the night, since it's not very relevant to the lynch. I'm about 90% sure that Yitzi is evil. There's a potential for him to be a villager, I won't deny that, but a few posts of his have cemented the idea that he's an eliminator for me, and I doubt I'll ever budge from that, which means it's essentially a tunnel for me. Which is why I've been trying to ask a lot of players to give me their thoughts on him before I push his lynch any further. If the eliminators realize he's going to die, they can just bus him to muddle up our reads so far. That is why I pushed yourself and Aster today. I wanted to see your opinions on Yitzi when he wasn't under threat, because if either of you are allies, you might come to his defense, or in Aster's case, vote repeatedly for two players I personally know to be town. I might as well reveal this now, because there's very little chance of me living through the night anyway. I am the Scavenger, a town only role. I wanted to avoid saying this because none of us want a mayor running around here, but my life is guaranteed to end soon, either via the eliminator kill or me attempting to get the Ringleader charges of steel. The Ringleader has steel tonight, and they will be using it. We are in contact together thanks to the Neutrals, so they have been aware of both of our identities since day one. After I die the Ringleader is no longer a Coinshot, since they'll be unable to get any more charges, but they are a town only role, which means the eliminators will probably want to kill them sooner rather than later. With that in mind, neither of us plan on revealing their identity to anyone but the Neutrals. So for those of you like Seonid having concerns about my alignment, don't fret. It's impossible for me to be evil, and my days are up anyway. There is a chance Aster isn't evil. I honestly thought he could be town from reading the first day alone, but his lack of opinions on Yitzi until he was put in the vote lead, plus his voting on me and Rand, who I think between my arguments yesterday and the neutral's wagon on him proves his innocence, makes me believe they've been force into a situation where they have no choice but to vote for the other and hopefully get credit for lynching an eliminator so we leave them alone in the days to come. I think that just about covers everything I want to share.
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I really hope you're evil, because it doesn't even seem like you're trying to consider Rand being good. You did see how neutrals swarmed Rand after the Pauper was attacked by the elims while being protected by the Child to get their permanent PM, right? If Rand was an elim, do you think the neutrals would swarm him immediately after making that deal? Surely that would result in the death of the Pauper, the Convict and the Child.
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(6) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, Yitzi2, Straw, (4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (3) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, Arinian, Dalinar Kholin, (1) Amanuensis: asterion137, (1) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, (1) The Flash: _Stick_, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) Straw: STINK,
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I think you're doing fine. I feel pretty good about you based on tone, it's just I think you're letting paranoia rule too much of your opinion at this state of the game. If Rand and I were still alive in mid-game while lower-priority players were picked off, your concerns would have a lot more merit, but right now it's dangerous. PM me tonight and I can give you information that will alleviate your worries.
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Oh. Is that why you're voting Straw? :Thonk: Speaking of. @Straw where you at?
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Re: Asterion. My primary concerns with him are the fact that he's voted for two people today he said he believes are Town, just because one defended the other (Rand and I), in addition to him not commenting on any player but us two and Straw/Stink so far. If he could help me understand his perspective better / opinions of more players, then I might retract in favor of Yitzi, since Yitzi was my preferred lynch D1 anyway.
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Personally I don't think the Aster lynch should be set in stone yet, we still got 20 hours to discuss this. I feel like Aster could go either way, although I really don't understand his actions today from a villager perspective. I'm hoping he gets on soon because if he is town, lynching him isn't much better than letting Rand get lynched.
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Whoops. (4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (4) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, (2) Amanuensis: Seonid, asterion137, (2) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, Arinian, (1) The Flash: _Stick_, (1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) Straw: STINK,
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@Seonid, I believe you're town. I would very much appreciate you removing your vote on me. @Arraenae, same thing but with Rand. @randuir, we may need more votes than 4. There's 6 neutrals total plus the eliminators. In interest of that: Striker, Asterion. (4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (4) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, Amanuensis, (2) Amanuensis: Seonid, asterion137, (2) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, Arinian, (1) The Flash: _Stick_, (1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III,
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I haven't once said Rand was evil. I've been vouching for him the entire game. It's an additional reason why I'm suspicious of Asterion's initial vote on you. (4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (3) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant, randuir, TheMightyLopen, (2) Amanuensis: Seonid, asterion137, (2) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, Arinian, (1) The Flash: _Stick_, (1) StrikerEZ: Amanuensis, (1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III,
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Bing bing.
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I'm surprised you haven't figured this out yet. I expected most players to not catch on, but it should be pretty obvious.
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There's different strategies, but yes, that tends to be the norm. But there's a lot of other players guilty of that and worse. Like I said, Yitzi and Aster did the same thing, essentially. I just want to see you think about more players is all, really. You don't know what I do about Lopen that makes it 75% likely that he's town, so it's possible that I'm biased. I don't really think you're an elim trying to get him mislynched, since there's a few things you've said this game that make me lean in the direction of town. I just think you're tunneling on a pretty valuable player for us, and I'd like to resolve that tunnel without having to resort to my trump card.
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Could be. Or it could be he isn't the PO. Although I feel his voting for Joe if he was contradicts everything he said before that (personally I think Rand would be more subtle). That being said, the reason I'm suspicious of you has a lot more to do with that.
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Just to highlight three of his posts on the first two pages.
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Oh, sorry, I thought you were still asking about Rand. As for that, no. I don't believe you honestly thought that Rand was the Parole Officer. There was way too much supporting evidence of Rand not being that role.
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I know you didn't say any of that. I was taking the scenario to it's logical conclusion and asking you which you think is more likely. I get what you're saying about Lopen slowly approaching the vote, but I don't get how it's alignment indicative. Huh? I just said an eliminator would not do that. Maybe if they thought about it over time and discussed it with their teammates, but not within minutes of finding out.
