Amanuensis
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Everything posted by Amanuensis
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I was basing those questions off your conclusion, specifically not having his own opinion and that he might have been waiting for an opportunity to save Rand. Don't you think it's convenient that he said he wanted to vote for Yitzi earlier that day, and then I eventually come in with analysis and a vote? Wouldn't that imply that Lopen and I are evil together? In turn, does that mean that Rand, Lopen and I are evil together? What about Cloud, is he in on this too? Did the entire eliminator team reveal themselves on the first day just to save Rand? Is that more likely than us being villagers who are genuinely thinking about this game enough to determine a couple alignments? I personally think it's proof enough. Lynching a Neutral that wants to work with the eliminator team makes no sense for an eliminator, both because it doesn't get them any closer to winning and reduces the number of allies they have. If Rand's knee-jerk reaction to Joe trying to work with the villains of this game isn't evidence of being good, I guess I'm the games biggest fool for believing it.
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Pretty sure I explained how Rand proved himself a villager D1 already.
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Because I firmly believe that Rand isn't evil and that lynching him is a bad idea. Pretty simple, really.
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I quoted... you will see further why I quoted that. And that his first post after he came back. As you can see he didn't placed vote. Honestly most of his posts for D1 looked for me like fillers. Also his words about moving lynch... I think it can be interpreted as slight preparing for saving someone from lynch(you know... one word there another there). Okay, I think it's time to explain my idea... I know it's absolute scratch but from what I've seen I got feeling that Rand and Lopen can be teammates(and this Lopen's post can be just distancing). Yeah there looks like Lopen not cares about if Rand will be lynched or not, he even didn't throw his vote. But after Aman's post: Lopen hastly throws vote on Yitzi. Looks like nice way to save teammate from lynch, safe and nice. And his reason of weird bandwagon on Rand looks flimsy, cause on my opinion bandwagon on Rand obviously formed as back reaction on Rand's push on neutrals(if mind don't lies to me most of votes on Rand were thrown after Willson's words about "neutrals not villagers". So maybe Lopen atleast particulary right... hmm... "shrug", cause situation close to one about which I talking right now). And there goes Lopen's reasoning for vote on Yitzi: Okay, so Lopen's reasons to vote on Yitzi: 1)Strange defending of Straw. 2) Strange reasons for voting on Rand. You know I not gonna bother myself too much and will just copy Aman's reasons to suspect Yitzi(will just say that Lopen's reasons to vote for Yitzi looks familiar... hmm... where I've seen them earlier): So, conclusions: atleast guilty in not having his own opinion for voting on someone.(of course different people can have same reasons for voting on someone, but sequence of how all is happened mostly makes me suspect Lopen. He was saying that he suspecting Yitzi earlier than Aman but didn't vote till there was good situation for that). If Lopen is elim I think Rand can be too(I want to say that I'm not suspecting Rand he looks villagy enough, but if Lopen is elim I think chances for Rand to be elims is high). So you're suspicious of Lopen because he didn't have a unique reason for voting Yitzi, and you believe he was trying to save Rand's life. For that first part, don't you think that applies to everyone who voted for Straw, Rand, and Jon as well (after the initial votes)? Why focus on Lopen and not any of them? Do I take it you believe that Yitzi is a villager? If so, why does he seem more good than Lopen does?
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Not drunk, no. Just didn't remember this
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I'll check it out. Although I will say I have one very good reason to believe Lopen isn't evil, although it's one that involves sensitive information I'd prefer not to reveal until tonight.
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I don't think any of the votes on me were caused by the OOOs and smilies I'd also say I'm more involved in this game than any other player, both activity wise and analysis wise. I don't exactly understand why Lopen is suspicious. Have you already explained this? I can't remember.
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Well let's just say I'm not assuming and leave it at that but don't let me distract you any more.
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Well the second one isn't really a question for a specific player, since you're waiting to see if Joe's vote will count (it will).
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Emphasis mine. If it's pertinent to you right now, I know the answers to both of these questions already. That being said, what are your thoughts on Striker and Aster? You and I are off the table for today's lynch, for obvious reasons, and while Flash hasn't yet escaped my PoE, he's closer to a townlean than others. Besides Yitzi, those are the only two players I'd probably vote for today.
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Because?
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asterion137: Aster really hasn't said much this game. In his first post he only commented on having more than two players in a PM as excessive, but doesn't seem to believe it's suspicious himself. In his second, he says he'd prefer a Straw or STINK lynch to a vote based on pure gut, but is fine with either if no more leads present themselves. Like with Yitzi's soft defense of Straw I pointed out on D1, this made me wonder if Aster was on a team with Straw, although that's unlikely because he eventually votes for Straw after Straw joins the Randwagon, because "voting on someone who isn't here is a classic elim move." This is a reasonable progression, especially since in a previous post, he expresses doubt that evil!Rand would intentionally try to create a rift between the town & neutrals when he isn't able to be around to argue for it or if he didn't have an ally's support. He also reiterates what I said before that if Rand is evil and he dies, the eliminators would end up alienated immediately for the play, thus causing them to turn on the elims and probably cost them the game. Overall Aster's D1 play shows a consistent stream of thoughts, which makes me want to lean town, although I am offput by the fact that he has given 0 thoughts on anyone else but Straw, Rand and myself. Speaking of, let's look at D2. He starts off voting for Rand saying he understands where Yitzi is coming from regarding Rand/Cloud/Myself. That being said, he hinges my alignment proving evil only if Rand is evil too, and later expresses that the last minute vote turnaround onto Jon looks like eliminators trying to save a teammate from D1 death. This bothers me because on D1, Aster already set the precedent of believing Rand is not evil, and in this very same post he says he's leaning town on me anyway. Compare this to his next vote, where he votes against me despite saying he thinks Rand is town and I am town, makes absolute zero sense. Add that to the fact that he ignored my pointing out that the last minute lynch on Jon implicates Yitzi as much, if not more than, Rand, in addition to my first post this turn where I asked him for his thoughts on Yitzi... it's hard not to look at this and assume something isn't right. Conclusion: Aster's D1 looks pretty good to me due to progression, although I don't like how little he's said. His D2 looks terrible in comparison, however, although it's early enough that I think Aster can redeem himself. @asterion137, please give us more thoughts on players, and explain how voting for two people you think are town just because one of them is defending the other makes any sense. (4) randuir: Arraenae, OrlokTsubodai, A Joe in the Bush, Crimsn-Wolf, (3) Amanuensis: Yitzi2, Seonid, asterion137, (2) The Flash: The Mighty Lopen, _Stick_, (1) StrikerEZ: Amanuensis, (1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, (1) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant,
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StrikerEZ: Got some mixed feelings about Striker. My initial concern began when he expressed suspicion of Straw in his second post but never voted for him. This made me squint for two reasons: one, I believed that Straw was a mislynch waiting to happen. He tends to accumulate a lot of votes on D1 mostly due to his play style, and I had the same exact thoughts in MR21 that eliminators were trying to take advantage of that. Granted I was evil that game and Straw was town, but it was a valid point nonetheless (and, surprise, another eliminator lynched Straw that day). For two, it bothered me because generally when a player avoids voting for people they're "very suspicious of," I can't help but think they're A: evil and trying not to draw attention while perpetuating the village's suspicion of one of their own, or B: evil but a teammate is already voting there so the natural inclination to not "throw all their eggs in one basket" causes them to hang back. If B is true, one of Araris, Rae or Len would have to be evil, given the first voter, STINK, is neutral. That being said, Striker did the exact thing with Jondesu, a proven villager, in his very first post, then did it again with both Straw and Rand in his third, so it's become a trend. In his fourth post, the night had already began and Striker only posts to say "whoops I forgot to vote" and "I really don't like how Jondesu was lynched last minute." For the most part this is NAI because I feel exactly the same (I personally did not want the Jon lynch to happen, as I expressed in several posts), but 2 of the players involved in that lynch are confirmed neutrals, and the other three I am leaning villagers on, so in an evil!Striker world, this could be him directing suspicion at an all town last minute wagon. Now, I haven't expressed all of this until now, but this is what I've been thinking about Striker for most of the night. The fact that him saying he's suspicious of people but not voting, and that those people also happen to be players that other's are expressing suspicion of,has become a reoccurring theme at this point. This can mean two different things. 1, he's a villager who's following popular opinion rather than trying to form his own, perhaps due to being relatively new, perhaps due to people's thoughts on those players being appealing or having merit (even if I disagree). 2, he's an eliminator who's going along with popular opinion in order to push mislynches without actually contributing to them so that he can avoid responsibility. In response to my vote and asking for his thoughts on Straw, Rand, Yitzi, Stick and Brightness, he talks a lot about how Straw created a lot of PMs but didn't really do much with them. He says that fact in addition to a few opening posts of Straw are the only things he believe are suspicious of Straw. As for Rand, he says his reaction to the neutrals is what makes him suspicious, but despite that, the sudden Jon lynch that effectively saved Rand at the end of D1, and the fact that he doesn't know what to make of his later posts, he's leaning town on him. He finishes the post saying he believes Brightness is a villager due to her efforts, but before that he says he hasn't developed any opinions on Yitzi or Stick, yet. @StrikerEZ, I would really appreciate it if you go over all of their posts soon and tell us all what you think. Conclusion: Leaning evil due to following popular opinion, although I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, due to his activity not being that high and him sleeping through turnover, but I would really like it if he would start forming and expressing his own thoughts.
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Hey I was thinking of doing that. Going over Striker posts now, then I'll do Aster's. (3) Amanuensis: Yitzi, Seonid, asterion137, (2) The Flash: The Mighty Lopen, _Stick_, (1) StrikerEZ: Amanuensis, (1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) randuir: Arraenae, (1) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash, (1) asterion137: BrightnessRadiant,
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OOOOOOO. INTERESTING. (3) Amanuensis: Yitzi, Seonid, asterion137, (1) StrikerEZ: Amanuensis, (2) The Flash: The Mighty Lopen, _Stick_, (1) Yitzi2: Paranoid King, (1) STINK: Ecthelion III, (1) randuir: Arraenae, (1) The Mighty Lopen: The Flash,
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Might as well say I think Cloud has a good chance of being a villager, and that despite Seonid's super-bad previous-post, he's likely town as well.
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If anything I believe that points to Yitzi being the eliminator, personally. There was a point where Rand had 8 or 9 votes yesterday, which if I didn't interfere, would have either stayed that way or gotten worse. That's generally an indicator of a D1 mislynch, whereas Yitzi's had trouble getting enough votes to overtake it.
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As in the mass pile of votes, or the turnaround?
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I could be wrong, but there's a few things he's said that make me lean town the past two turns. His D1 wasn't the greatest ever, but I could see it him just being a confused villager.
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Rand is probably town, too, even if many people seem to disagree. But what do I know. I'm only human
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By the way, @TheMightyLopen, @The Flash, @_Stick_: I'm relatively certain all three of you are town, so I would advise not voting for each other
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OOOOOOOO. Interesting.
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By the way anyone I didn't tag is welcome to answer the same question I asked those I tagged. Your opinions matter too!
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Oh wow I'm alive. Cool. @The Flash @cloudjumper @asterion137 @Paranoid King @StrikerEZ @Elenion @Araris Valerian @Ecthelion III @Drake Marshall @Yitzi2 @Dalinar Kholin These are players I'm either suspicious of or have absolutely no significant reads on. I would like them to be the focus of discussion today. I think I'll start with a vote on Striker. What are your thoughts on Straw, Rand, Yitzi, Stick and Brightness? Same question for everyone on this list, as well as your thoughts on each other, please and thank you.
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It's not much of a reads list, but I just whipped this up. The Flash Cloudjumper asterion137 Paranoid King StrikerEZ Elenion Araris Valerian Ecthelion III Drake Marshall Yitzi2 Dalinar Kholin Everyone not on this list have either: openly claimed neutral, have posted enough content that makes me think they’re either a villager or that they don’t need to be pressured anytime soon, or in the case of Shqueeves and Elbereth, are going through things in real life that mean they should be left alone for a while. None of these players have said or done things that make me think they can’t be evil. I am leaning town on Straw, Arinian, Seonid and Stick, and Arraenae, hence their absence from this list, but I wouldn’t make any hard bets on them being villagers (same applies to players like Lopen and Rand, but in their case I don’t think they should be considered for the lynch until midgame, personally). When I look at Asterion, Striker, PK and Drake I get mixed feelings, and unfortunately I don’t have the time to look into their posts to articulate why right now, so hopefully I can get to it later. I personally would like it if more vocal players could question them, as well as the Flash, Cloud, Araris, Yitzi and Dalinar more, throughout the course of the next few days, as the key to figuring out who is good and evil is player interaction always. I also suggest that this list be cross-referenced with who voted for which lynch yesterday, the reasons they provided for choosing it, and any reasons they gave for not choosing another. Village’s best bet at victory is figuring out who among these are villagers and continuing to narrow it down. After participating in my championship qualifier game, I learned about something called “negative space hunting” which is based around not locking onto a player just because they do something suspicious, but continuing to investigate players that are giving neither good or bad vibes, as eliminators tend to be more careful about their image than we are. Whether it being a result of lurking, or not taking any firm stances on other players / other topics, I feel it is every villagers responsibility to try and get those struggling to participate or form solid opinions actively contributing. Got to go now. If I don’t get on again before the deadline and die like I expect to, then I wish you all luck and lots of fun.
