Orlok Tsubodai

Ok, so I clearly haven't been able to catch up yet, but am getting there. With the GM's blessing to post my analysis in notes form, I give you the first four pages of D1: Posts by game Cycle Posts by turn Player Key content Thoughts on content Alignment Indicative Vote Retractions 1 C1 1 TJ Shade Writeup 2 C1 2 Matrim's Dice Asks if thoughts on distribution Doesn't give own opinions. Fairly safe conversation starter. Very mild evil 3 C1 3 Archer Respinds to Matrim. Poke vote on Striker (known elim). Sensible but NAI game analysis. Safe distancing? Unlikely - moderate likelihood village. Moderate village StrikerEZ 4 C1 4 Shard of Reading Known villager. Sensible NAI distribution analysis None Known villager 5 C1 5 Liranil Known villager. NAI NAI NAI 6 C1 6 Quinn0928 Known elim. Suggests potential elim warder for Green Ajah. Suggests 5 elims as Green Ajah. Plausible distribution. Strong chance of IKYK. Known elim 7 C1 7 James Brafin Suggests four eliminators. Misinterprets first writeup Confusion re first writeup feels very genuine - hard clear village for me. Village 8 C1 8 Quinn0928 Clears up James' misconception NAI NAI 9 C1 9 James Brafin Acknowledges misconception NAI NAI 10 C1 10 The Unknown Order Also clears up James' misconception NAI NAI 11 C1 11 Quinn0928 Asks James if first game Kindness feels genuine. Unlikely same team. Known elim 12 C1 12 James Brafin First game on this site Remember James has offsite experience NAI 13 C1 13 Lotus NAI NAI NAI 14 C1 14 Matrim's Dice Agrees publicly with Quinn re village vig. Assumes five eliminators. Unsure. Number of elims not a valuable day one discussion topic. Unsure 15 C1 15 Illwei Votes Condensation. Jokes about being an eliminator. Goes through roles. Expects three kills a cycle. Points out that overestimating elims a way to seem more village. Joke votes on Quinn (eliminator). Returns vote to Condensation. OOG reason for vote on Condensation? Very strong familiarity with Quinn. Sensible inclusion of warders in distro analysis. Agree with their point re overestimation for town read purposes. Mild village Condensation 16 C1 16 Dannex Wants Green Ajah to claim. Wants them mechanically confirmed, with yellow ajah protection. Doesn't want the green ajah to use their kill frequently. Suggests one black ajah vote manip. Do not like suggestion of green ajah claiming. Suspect evil, with black ajah having a yellow ajah member likely. Moderate evil 17 C1 17 Shard of Reading Points out no PMs except between Aes Sedai and their warders Thanks Shard! Perhaps revise Dannex assessment. Known villager 18 C1 18 Illwei Suggests vig kill be trigger happy. Jokes about conferrign with elim team. Mild village from encouragement of vig. Mild village 19 C1 19 Quinn0928 Asks Illwei to spell name correctly. Distancing? Unlikely, I think. Known elim 20 C1 20 Condensation Complains about speed of the game. Gut reads Illwei as trustworthy. Votes on Burnt. Tell me about it... Why village read from post? More likely that elims make faster gut reads in my experience. Unsure Burnt Spaghetti 21 C1 21 Matrim's Dice Revises assessment of elim numbers given warder. "Hopes" green ajah "good". Suggests unlikely vig kills accurate Good unhelpful word in context. Assume it means accurate. Discourages vig killing. Mild evil as such. Mild evil 22 C1 22 Quinn0928 Suggests Matrim pocketing Condensation Probably player familiarity Known elim 23 C1 23 Illwei Votes on Quinn as joke in response to name post. Further familiarity. Likely NAI - possibly mild village as slightly less likely on same team Mild village Quinn 24 C1 24 Quinn0928 Says busy so only making short posts NAI NAI 25 C1 25 Matrim's Dice Complains re ever changing votes. NAI NAI 26 C1 26 Quinn0928 Says they're procrastinating. NAI NAI 27 C1 27 Illwei Jokes about Green claiming. Says no notes in QF - just point and shoot. I should probably listen to this advice... NAI 28 C1 28 TJ Shade Clarifies absolutely no non-Warder/Aes Sedai PMs. GM Reeks of evil. 29 C1 29 Ashbringer Suggets players claim to their warders and communicate with them. Communicating always sensible, practicing PM safety. Known villager 30 C1 30 Quinn0928 Jokes about Illwei being Green Ajah. Distancing? Known elim 31 C1 31 Devotary of Spontaneity States white ajah useful to the elims. Says lots of protection likely - so possibly larger than standard team. Doubts two village yellow ajah so continuous protection can't be arranged. Makes sensible points. Possible village lean due to warning re yellow ajah Mild village 32 C1 32 Quinn0928 Clarifies that warders know their Aes Sedai's Ajah. NAI Known elim 33 C1 33 Ashbringer Notes no roleblocks in game. NAI Known villager 34 C1 34 Matrim's Dice Suggests not everyone may have a role NAI NAI 35 C1 35 Quinn0928 Suggests red ajah may not have warders for thematic reasons Possible? Known elim 36 C1 36 Illwei Alignment reads based on jokes? Difficult to know what is meant and what isn't. Reiterates their vote on Quinn as a joke. Largely unhelpful. Unsure if playstyle or obfuscating Very mild evil 37 C1 37 Quinn0928 Clear familiarity with Illwei Unsure Known elim 38 C1 38 Condensation Says already far behind on the game. Feels like immediate voting not necessarily the norm. You think *you* are behind? NAI 39 C1 39 Dannex Wants vanilla roles to claim. Says they're expendable because vanilla. Disagree vehemently. Most important role in the game is your mind and analysis. Not to mention vanilla claims narrow down elim targets. Moderate evil. 40 C1 40 Matrim's Dice Points out vanilla claims narrow field for elims. Agree. Basic but sensible point. Mild village. 41 C1 41 Dannex Says one vanilla claiming worth it for village What possible advantage does it convey to the village? Mild evil 42 C1 42 Quinn0928 Says it should be up to discretion of vanillas to reveal themselves. Promoting poor advice Known evil 43 C1 43 Illwei Points out uselessness of knowing whether we have vanilla roles. Says Dannex always has controversial opinions. Useful to know re Dannex. Mild village 44 C1 44 Lotus Says QFs move fast This one faster than most. NAI 45 C1 45 Dannex Jokes NAI NAI 46 C1 46 Quinn0928 Suggests elims may want to kill vanillas as definitely not protected Fair point. Known elim 47 C1 47 Dannex Votes Illwei. Suggests lynching a vanilla best possible mislynch. Still a mislynch (and misses that he could be lying but not elim). Still doesn't explain advantage of knowing whether they're in the game. Moderate evil Illwei 48 C1 48 TJ Shade GMs as a rule are evil. As before. Confirmed Shai'tan 49 C1 49 Illwei Says they wouldn't kill a vanilla if evil. Suggests claimed vanilla likely a warder. Has (joke)claimed vanilla. Warder? Mild village 50 C1 50 Quinn0928 Says Illwei could be troll villager. Suggests vanilla less likely to be protected or watched. Conversation on hypothetical vanillas is completely useless to the village. Known elim 51 C1 51 Gears Ability analysis. Says not to trust bonded. RP. NAI NAI 52 C1 52 Illwei Calls out Dannex's logic. Says they recall Dannex being against D1 lynches. Doesn't vote on Dannex - why not? Mild evil 53 C1 53 Quinn0928 Says that value in game has much more to do with thread than roles. Agree. Known elim 54 C1 54 Matrim's Dice Says Dannex's plan a bad idea and that we should vote on suspicion. Votes on Dannex. Agree with this wholeheartedly. Moderate village Dannex 55 C1 55 Dannex Still treats knowing of vanillas as useful info - doesn't justify why. Feels like they are missing a major step in their logic. Mild evil 56 C1 56 Illwei Jokes about trolling NAI NAI 57 C1 57 Dannex Says trolling not a factor in whether they vote on someone or not. Trolling can completely change meaning of what is written Mild evil 58 C1 58 Shard of Reading Against killing Illwei. Gut read and vote on Dannex. Says only an hour into C1, Dannex pushing hard for kill on minimal info. Oh good lord. Is it really only an hour into C1... Agree with gut read on Dannex. Known villager 59 C1 59 Lotus Doesn't like Dannex being aggressive Could be a playstyle thing NAI 60 C1 60 Dannex Says they aren't pushing hard for a kill Reads to me like they are. NAI 61 C1 61 Matrim's Dice Clarifies that lynching for suspicions better than for role info Obvious point NAI 62 C1 62 Quinn0928 D1 votes always low reasoning. Illwei often a good early lynch for elim team. Defence of Dannex with some distancing Known evil 63 C1 63 Condensation Votes on Dannex, retracts on Burnt Fair vote, revisit dependant on Dannex alignment. Mild village Dannex Burnt Spaghetti 64 C1 64 Dannex Says difficult to have suspicions on D1. Says push on them suspicious, as they just poke voted Illwei. Real attempt to backtrack - their vote is anything but a pokevote. Moderate evil. 65 C1 65 Shard of Reading Says that their interpretation of Dannex's actions are a push to kill Illwei. Valid interpretation - I agree. Known villager 66 C1 66 Dannex Confrontational response. Defensive - feels unnatural response Mild evil 67 C1 67 Matrim's Dice Asks that we avoid D1 lynch discussion again. Doesn't like people following their votes. Tryign to stall Dannex train? DOesn't feel too much like it. Unsure 68 C1 68 Illwei Now claims Warden. Doesn't think behaviour is elim nature for him. Doesn't see Dannex being pushy either. Suspicious of Shard of Reading for voting for Dannex. Also suspicious of Condensation. Disagree with suspicion of those suspicious of Dannex. Mild evil 69 C1 69 Matrim's Dice Retracts Dannex, votes Condensation Why? Mild evil Condensation Dannex 70 C1 70 Dannex Suggests Condensation and Reading top elim reads. Will vote on them if Illwei retracts vanilla claim. Why *still* insistent on this vanilla claim? Reading now confirmed villager. Condensation voting on them. Feels very reactionary. Moderate evil. 71 C1 71 Condensation Says Dannex vote still makes sense to them. Isn't pressured off Dannex. Moderate village 72 C1 72 Shard of Reading Clarifies feelings re Dannex Fair enough Known villager 73 C1 73 Illwei Questions apparent change in Condensation opinions on D1 voting If they've been called out for it each time previously, surely changing their mind is likely or nautral? NAI 74 C1 74 Quinn0928 Doesn't fault Condensation for changing playstyle. Agree NAI 75 C1 75 Matrim's Dice Doesn't want D1 lynch discussion. Is voting Condensation for where the vote landed, not the vote. Disagree that vote target poor _ had I been playing I'd likely have joined vote on Dannex. Mild evil 76 C1 76 Condensation Says they are doing an introspection class - reason for change in playstyle. Plausible. If so good for them. NAI 77 C1 77 Ashbringer Jokes? about their own D1 voting history and being killed Don't know context, probably joke NAI 78 C1 78 Shard of Reading Says they are talking of Dannex's surety as why they are voting for them, not the fact it is a D1 vote. Very sensible Mild village 79 C1 79 Quinn0928 Promises not to kill Ashbringer this game Joke NAI 80 C1 80 Illwei Gives good explanation of Reading's point of view Agree Mild village 81 C1 81 Condensation Says they historically had a hard time with decisiveness NAI NAI 82 C1 82 Matrim's Dice Had misread Reading's intentions Fair NAI 83 C1 83 Illwei Complains about speed of game. I have more than 1100 posts still to catch up on. You have it easy. NAI 84 C1 84 TJ Shade Vote Count. Dripping with the True Power. Hail Shai'Tan 85 C1 85 Quinn0928 Queries Illwei still voting on them Feels like oog friendship NAI 86 C1 86 Illwei Retracts Quinn. Claims two warders. Claims Dannex and SoR as village reads. Retraction (and pokevote) seem driven by prior relationship NAI Quinn 87 C1 87 Quinn0928 Asks to be added to Illwei village reads Joke NAI 88 C1 88 Dannex Asks Illwei to respond to whether they are retracting vanilla claim Still cannot figure out Dannex's obsession with this vanilla claim Unsure 89 C1 89 Shard of Reading Notes he finds the village reading of themselves and Dannex entertaining NAI NAI 90 C1 90 Breaker Not quite sure what they're saying here Unsure Unsure 91 C1 91 Illwei Says they never actually claimed vanilla. Explains to Breaker that they were recapping thread thus far. Sensible enough NAI 92 C1 92 Quinn0928 Explains the discussion re vanillas to Breaker NAI NAI 93 C1 93 Breaker Says they misquoted and were thrown off. NAI NAI 94 C1 94 Shard of Reading Says pages 1 and 2 rules discussion NAI Confirmed villager 95 C1 95 Illwei Smiles NAI NAI 96 C1 96 Dannex Retracts Illwei. Most suspicious of Reading and Condensation. Consistent with prior stated posts. Unsure 97 C1 97 Quinn0928 Says only Illwei can explain their trolling re claiming GM and IM as warders Or anyone else could... NAI 98 C1 98 Breaker Screams NAI NAI 99 C1 99 Quinn0928 Says they will be active this game It certainly seems so NAI 100 C1 100 Matrim's Dice Explains but misunderstands Illwei's joke NAI NAI 101 C1 101 Quinn0928 @s Illwei re Matrim saying we should ignore them Friendly jibing NAI From what I have read so far, and acknowledging there is much I haven't read, I am so far most suspicious of Dannex. I can't work out their apparent fixation with vanilla roles, and find it particularly odd that they want vanillas to claim. I also dislike their request in their first post for the Green Ajah to claim in PMs (although clearly impossible). I further note their request that the village vig kill doesn't use their ability frequently, which I see as elim-helpful. Beyond this, and again acknowledging that there are still 17 pages left in D1 for me to read, I note that one of the players suspicious of Dannex was killed D1. My analysis is clearly still in an embryonic state, but I need to take a brief break from going through the thread, and think breaking my notes up may help others trying to read them.

Thanks both. Good to know there isn't that much time pressure then to catch up before a contended lynch...

As an aside, all, I am desperately trying to catch up on the past cycles - does anyone have a vote count for this cycle, so that I don't have to jump way ahead in my read through?

Thanks TJ Shade, and those who have been so kind as to welcome me. You will have to forgive me if it takes me some time to catch up on all this. I shall have to skim it, rather than follow my normal approach, but even so there is clearly a lot to get through.

I shall sign up as Locke Tekiel.

I shall sign up as Locke Tekiel.

Why would I, as an elim, go on to night kill one of my two main suspects? Given I have made something like one post since D2, your certainty is pretty incriminating. Good game, though. Presuming this is LyLo if you're trying to lynch me. Araris

OK, Matrim is 100% evil. Will stake my rep on it. Very clear that I haven't been well, and haven't been paying nearly as much attention to this game as normal. Opportunism from Matrim here, which implicates Pyro as well.

On skimming the thread, it does appear that Matrim and Pyro are at least two of the members of the elim team.

Forgive me, Araris. My involvement with the game was pretty minimal due to some serious issues in my personal life.

Xino. May as well join in on this - I haven't had the time or energy to look at the thread in more detail.

Quite the opposite often - PMs allow communication without village scrutiny. Indeed, they offer a fantastic opportunity for manipulation or pocketing. I'm content to leave my vote be for now, but shall note that I am staying in the Study.

MysticLotus. I'm also in the Study, and the two of you have exchanged very little by way of communication, as I'm sure @TJ Shadewill verify. I'm not sure what to make of it, but your above feels well like it may well be pocketing to me. Please explain how you think what you've said in that PM makes you think he's a villager.

Life has been really difficult recently. As such, I've struggled to engage with much at all. I will be endeavouring to get back into this tonight. I'm going to go to the Study.

Straw correctly identifies I should have posted this here.

Apologies, all. The last 72 hours have been really difficult for me. I'm going to try to get back into the game, but am afraid I'm giving up on doing so as locke the tormented. I just can't bring myself to make the effort to do so at present.

soz all. locke spent all of yesterday in pubs celebrating their reopening. investigations reveal at least four of my locals still serve good pints have decided im going to do this game entirely on gut. just not fun trying to analyse and write as locke. as such, ventyl. reasonably strong gut village read on tj shade. havent thought enough about gears.

Lol @Elbereth so evil.

el powerwolfing. want to see her analysis of me. used to be a tell of hers that shed ignore me.

will get to analysis in c. 30 mins. as said before, key to ventyl lynch is whether we think their assumption re most players being kr is genuine. cant understand how they would arrive at this conclusion @Ventyl (cant uncapitalise mentions ) as squiring mechanic demonstrates need for large number of non-kr in game.

feeling very tempted to throw in the towel and concede this challenge to wilson. v tough to engage as i normally would, and not enjoying this so much. that said, gut reads alone is that tj shade not elim but need to iso their posts and reread later. not too attached to gears lynch. based on game balance unsure re ventyl. key here for me is their assumption that most people are radiant. would imagine less than half are, based on recollection of lg13. as elim team lg13 we had two radiants and three vanillas, i think. if hes elim, would know this, and not make such a claim. will reevaluate game later, possibly after drink or three. makes this torture slightly more bearable and less foreign and unnatural.

hardly. making sure you dont squire obvs diagrammatist.

agree not squiring el. she also sus for me.

torn between moving vote to striker or ventyl. hoping someone convinces me either way. still think gears sus.

indeed. @little wilson, i offer you up my recognition that autocorrect is a nightmare. you have my renewed respect.