Orlok Tsubodai

Let’s run with the counterfactual: Aman actually is the role he claims. In this world, does claiming publicly make sense? I think we can rule out sub-worlds with no eliminators, as a neutral SK with only village targets in a blackout is ridiculous. How does he then expect the eliminator team to respond? We have a neutral kill role with partial role scanning capabilities, who later claims that he’ll act village aligned in thread, and not try to hinder the village. Eliminator concern/antagonism is predictable, and Aman knows this. So why claim? I contend that the world which makes the most sense is one in which Aman is phishing (which is entirely character consistent, and so would like to restate my concern that this phishing attempt is derailing discussion, and largely privatising the benefit of D1 discussion to Aman (for the general case, to get as much out of looking at the responses to phishing as Aman, we have to make the assumption that the claim is phishing, which will always slightly mar the strength of conclusions from it).

Tfw you realise Aman's roleclaims on D1 weren't entirely nonsense #doubt I'm afraid I see almost no world in which Kas decides, in a blackout game, to include a number of situation-incongruous roles, a neutral SK interacting with those roles, with a semi-role scan, and allows the neutral role the ability to decide the game, without the village being aware of the possibility from D1. This all being the case, I'd be very interested to hear what you've actually gleaned form this bit of phishing @Amanuensis. I'm not convinced that it continues to add value more material than its cost in obscuring the actual set up, in a game I suspect is strongly set up around role interactions and solvability. I will note that certain players who I would expect to have been slightly more sceptical have not been.

The quick answer to that is that I’m playing predominately on the underground on my way to and from work, which is both intense and for long hours, and so my opportunities to engage are very limited.

Thoughts: 1) Too many people are giving far too much credence to Aman’s claim. Parts of it seem wholly unlikely (the number of football related roles in an SE subforum related game, Kas putting a neutral SK-esque role in a blackout). Given at least some is almost certainly fabrication, I’m putting the whole thing down as Aman phishing, and making alignment judgements on that action. I do not consider voting (or otherwise) because of any perceived threat from the role well thought through. 2) Whilst acknowledging that my ability to keep on top of the thread at this stage is limited, I have seen a few players (my recollection has @Channelknight Fadran and @Matrim's Dice) expressing a village belief in Stick for most of the turn so far, which I haven’t seen a strong justification for, and which seems incongruous with D1. I’d be grateful to hear their reasoning for this in as much detail as they can provide. 3) Notwithstanding all I said above about Aman’s claim being one we should pretty much disregard, I’m going to bite on this from Steeldancer. For one thing, however nonchalant the phrasing, this is obviously very deliberately dropped in, and it would be a shame not to give him the conversation clearly desired. @Steeldancer, care to elaborate?

*claims to be neutral

Have rather limited time nowadays to actually keep abreast of the thread, particularly with this volume of posting, so am just going to try to finish the conversation I did engage in this morning. Including for reference above. Restating my point in a potentially clearer way, the elim win con to remove Kas or Fifth at parity should not affect our game play at all. If the eliminators can hammer at parity, they could no less successfully hammer on a villager, to achieve overparity. The only effect it has is in making clear to the village (and any neutrals, I suppose), who the eliminators are, when they are already at parity. That the eliminators can win by winning the lynch at parity is the same as in nearly every other SE game I have played. I do not see how a statement of something with no difference in conditions should result in different behaviour to normal. I need to take time to think through her second post in more depth. I think whilst TJ is right that I may have misinterpreted Stick’s first post, the second post suggests I did not, and she genuinely is and was arguing that the not-actually-a-hammer-hammer ought to change our behaviour. Other misc thoughts: Agree with Xino that a general sense check suggests that at least five football based roles in an SE sub forum based game is unlikely. Need to try to think through what that actually means about Aman’s role/alignment. Gut village read on Araris, probably because I saw him agree with me

Pretty sure I disagree vehemently on this. In a blackout game, the informational advantage held by the eliminators is likely much more significant than in a normal game. I’d bet on the eliminator team being commensurately smaller, although I’d note this is an assumption. I think a sharper challenge to your point is that the win condition of the eliminators is to outnumber the villagers. If they are at parity, this is just as achievable as a hammer on Kas or Fifth. In short, I think the risk of imminent parity is slim, and that the ability to vote on Kas or Fifth at parity is a bad argument for changing village voting behaviour.

Very good question, Aman. I woke up this morning to messages of manic cackling from Kas, and notifications for a game I have no recollection of signing up to… Making the best of it, however: Stick, your last statement is interesting. Why does the absence of knowledge of when parity will occur suggest we should worry about unconsolidated votes? The eliminators can’t successfully vote on Kas or Fifth until parity is achieved, regardless of the village vote being splintered. I’m pretty clear in my belief that messy, unpredictable votes yield more useable information than bandwagons. What benefit are you suggesting comes from consolidating votes this early in the game?

Apologies, all, for taking so long to become current with this game. It appears to be becoming a habit of mine, and one I’m not proud of. I continued my post by post analysis through most of D1, to find a grounding in the game, and have read through the rest of the game in full, albeit in lesser depth. It’s always interesting going through the early game with some knowledge of alignments; it gives a different perspective on interactions. Keeping Archer’s alignment in mind, I’d ask you all to look again at this post, and to think carefully about it: Setting aside the first half (although I think interactions around Thaidakar are worth thinking about themselves, I’d like to focus on Archer’s case about Aman. I think the case can be summarised as follows: 1) Aman oversold his pitch of e!Thaidakar in the Teo doc. 2) A fourth vote can be e/e, therefore Aman’s fourth vote on Thaidakar can be e/e. 3) Aman suggested acting like the Teo doc had no moles, and has been pro-information sharing. 4) It was odd of Aman to ask Matrim for five reasons for his view. 5) Double voting seems weird. I don’t think it’s controversial to say that this case both is, and feels extraordinarily weak. Addressing each point in turn: 1) Aman’s vote on Thaid, and subsequent placement of him as his sole low tier read felt strongly like a pressure vote. If this was a genuine pressure vote, then it is entirely consistent of Aman to model the same pressure in the Teo doc, or Thaid’s potential teammates would alert Thaid that the pressure wasn’t genuine. 2) A fourth vote can be e/e, but isn’t necessarily e/e, and Aman’s vote seemed a clear pressure vote. 3) Being pro-information sharing is a strategy, and I don’t think it’s necessarily alignment indicative, and if it is, it certainly isn’t strongly alignment indicative. 4) I’m not sure it was (although interestingly, it certainly fits within the Guide to Openwolfing Aman linked here: #18: A Practical Guide to Open Wolfing (by Mantichora) (mafiauniverse.com) 5) Just a very shallow engagement with what Aman is doing. I didn’t find Archer’s argument compelling, and nor did anyone else, it seems, for it generated no further votes on Aman, and was refuted or rejected by Aman, Kasimir (and here), Shadow, and Devotary. Beyond this, Archer’s argument apparently actively misrepresented what Aman had said in the Teo doc, which was verified by Experience and later JNV. Archer, apparently, misrepresented Aman’s comments from a public space, in an easily verifiable manner. I’d ask you all to think about this - to actually stop and think about this. I can’t speak for everyone, but I know for myself that thinking about trying to lynch Aman produces a visceral response. I know my mind anticipates a threadbrawl of great intensity, and that I should expect to see everything I’ve said in the post and the game challenged. When I, as a villager, truly believe there is a strong case for e!Aman, I still hesitate. As an eliminator, I would treat voting for Aman as akin to suicide. He has a silver tongue, a sharp mind, and the thread presence to guarantee he could execute a counter-train. I imagine that this feeling isn’t unique to me. Holding this in mind, consider Archer’s post. He, as an eliminator, makes a scattered series of weak or verifiably false arguments for e!Aman. To borrow a phrase from the Rationalist community, I noticed I was confused. It seems not just odd, but implausible that a rational e!Archer, trying to win, would vote for Aman for what were, as Aman himself describes “really bad reasons”. There are two explanations for this. The first of these is that we assume Archer made an extraordinarily bad decision, and then executed it woefully. I do not think this is reflective of the skill Archer has shown in the SE games I’ve played with him. It is an easy explanation, but not one I think is can be a true explanation. The second of these is that e!Archer made a weak argument claiming e!Aman deliberately. I will acknowledge that there might be other reasons for this, and would welcome them, but the clearest reason I can think of for making such a play is that Archer went after Aman so directly, yet so poorly, because he wanted Aman to catch him, and therefore to gain strong village credibility. My contention therefore is that catching Archer felt too easy, because it was intended to be so. I don’t think the case for e!Aman ends here, however. I think the argument is tripartite. For me, the most compelling evidence is that which I’ve set out above, that: 1) I simply cannot reconcile Archer’s attack on Aman with v!Aman and e!Archer genuinely trying to win Beyond this, however: 2) I think Striker is an eliminator, and that Aman has been defending him as a teammate throughout the game, and; 3) That there is a host of circumstantial evidence suggesting Aman is an eliminator, and that the Archer/Aman interaction was not natural, nor v/e. I’m aware in writing this that we face time constraints, and so am not going to set out the e!Striker arguments at length; I think they can be summarised as Striker’s vote on Thaidakar being exactly what it appears - an attempt to save (or appear to save) e!Archer, followed by Striker expressing a series of self-contradictory reasons for making that vote. Kas identifies that this: Is a clear misrepresentation of Striker’s actual vote on Archer, here: TJ identifies that Striker claims here: that his vote was intended to kill both Archer and Thaidakar, but that this cannot be true because ties did not kill at this point. I don’t buy that a villager would misrecall their rationale for voting in a way that simply cannot have been true. It feels strongly to me like a post-hoc justification for his vote, because he doesn’t have a true explanation of his vote to recall beyond voting to save a teammate. Beyond this, his response to Araris voting for him on D2 is the ludicrously implausible “I’ve been trying to act weird to see if I could get someone to bite for the “easy exe” that is me at all times.”: Matrim calls this out at the time as odd, and Kas this cycle articulates the point more strongly - Striker cannot hope distinguish between votes on him from villager who have noticed he was acting suspiciously, or from eliminators looking for an easy lynch. Beyond this, I don’t think Striker was trying to act suspiciously - his most suspicious act of D1 was to vote to save Archer, which could only have been deliberately suspicious if Striker knew Archer’s alignment. Either way, this alone ought to have triggered alarm bells. Returning to the case for e!Aman, a strong belief in e!Striker is relevant for two reasons. We have first the clear point that Aman has been defending Striker throughout the game, from here onwards. Interestingly, this retraction is in response to Striker’s post here, which I do not find convincing in the slightest - my own notes on it are: D1 53 StrikerEZ Replies to Matrim, disliked Matrim's post Aman quoted, for reasons Aman provided. Disliked Aman thinking one empire doc was definitely not compromised. Thought Aman was trying to set up a plan where faction eliminated, then elim claims faction and says they think the whole faction was village. Votes on Matrim as suspects him more than Aman, voted on Thaid because it was funny Matrim Thaidakar Strong dislike of parroting Aman, no original thoughts. Specifics of paranoia about Aman seem fabricated - immediately disproven by trye faction member of elim claiming that faction Moderate evil Votes on Matrim The second reason why e!Striker is highly relevant to Aman’s alignment is the end of D2 lynch. The argument for v!Aman I find most compelling is his involvement in Illwei’s lynch, where he requested Matrim vote on Illwei, taking the vote count from this: Devotary of Spontaneity (3): JNV, The Sibling, Araris Valerian Matrim's Dice (3): Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ| Illwei (3): The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis StrikerEZ (3): Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, shadow1 To this: D2: Illwei (4): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis Devotary of Spontaneity (3): JNV, The Sibling, Araris Valerian Matrim's Dice (3): Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ| StrikerEZ (2): StrikerEZ, shadow1 Resulting in Illwei’s lynch. If Striker is an eliminator, however, that movement prevents both e!Illwei and e!Striker dying in a tied lynch, and instead only leads to one of their deaths. In my view, the credit Aman should get from Illwei’s death (even ignoring a deliberate Illwei-bus world) is challenged sufficiently by Striker being evil, which I think is highly likely, and note that Aman's own defence of a Striker is suspect in itself. I had hoped to include a third part to this post, setting out observations on Aman’s posts throughout the game, and will still do this, but noting the time left in the cycle, will post this as is. As such, Amanuensis.

Thanks for actually reading it, at least. Kas raised this in our doc, too. I genuinely don't know, but think I must have written it whilst reading the green Experience in the votes column.

Carrying on with a read through, but posting both to make my game relevant post without cutting it too fine, and because the next post is a longer one from Kas, and I need a short break before looking at it. Cycle Post Player Summary Vote Retractions Thoughts AI (perceived) Notable connections D1 1 Ashbringer Writeup GM GM GM GM GM D1 2 Thaidakar Comments on rules clarification joke and RP N/A N/A None Villager None D1 3 Archer RP, votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Poke vote, NAI Eliminator Votes on Thaidakar D1 4 Kasimir RP, asks Ashbringer if we can report our Empires, and those in them with us N/A N/A Question for GM PM? Why in thread. Seeking to provoke conversation on topic, but if so why? Believes views on it to be AI? Unsure None D1 5 Experience Elantrian pronunciation comment N/A N/A None Villager None D1 6 Archer Notes similarity of ruleset to one run by Devotary, jokes in response to Experience N/A N/A None Eliminator None D1 7 Kasimir Joke to Ashbringer N/A N/A None NAI None D1 8 Ashbringer Players can report their Empire, don't have to be honest GM GM GM GM GM D1 9 Thaidakar Votes on Experience for Elantrian pronunciation comment Experience N/A Not out of observed character of Thaidakar Villager Votes on Experience D1 10 Kasimir Who would lie about Empires given easy to verify? Votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Pressure vote on Thaid? Interesting target Unsure Votes on Thaidakar D1 11 Thaidakar Asks why everyone is voting for him N/A N/A Slight overreaction? But neither vote explained Villager None D1 12 Archer Is voting on Thaidakar because opening post read as classic elim N/A N/A Did it? Eliminator None D1 13 Experience Votes on Archer Archer N/A On Archer's response to Thaid? Villager Votes on Archer D1 14 Archer RP name N/A N/A NAI Eliminator None D1 15 The Baker Picture of a cinnamon bun N/A N/A Cruel and tempting. Going to have difficulty reading Baker. Policy lynch if appropriate NAI None D1 16 Devotary Her game has had divided doc mechanic snce 2018, signed up to run it before Ash decided on this game N/A N/A No comments on thinking about how mechanic useful Very mild elim None D1 17 Experience Restates vote, in case Archer missed it being coloured red N/A N/A Wants vote not to be missed Villager Archer D1 18 Ashbringer Each doc knows members within it GM GM GM GM GM D1 19 Thaidakar Asks Archer why his opening post was classic elim, just wanted to introduce RP character. Comments on Baker's cinnamon bun N/A N/A Fair explanation Villager None D1 20 Kasimir Complains about game's data consumption N/A N/A NAI None None D1 21 Matrim Votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Why? Already can see how reacting under pressure, response not yielding information. Value of increasing pressure? Mild elim Votes on Thaidakar D1 22 Ashbringer Reminds everyone that this isn't a faction game GM GM GM GM GM D1 23 Archer Thinks Thaidakar making opening post about RP is suspicious N/A N/A Disagree. We're SE, not MU. Eliminator None D1 24 Experience Points out Archer's own opening post was RP N/A N/A Correct observation Villager None D1 25 Kasimir Jokes about MR7, and that we should focus on the Discovery faction. Makes joke referencing MR57 and Orlok N/A N/A Pretending we hadn't agreed to go for an Arelene only victory NAI Moderation best faction D1 26 Thaidakar Doesn't think making opening post about RP is suspicious, agrees with Experience that Archer's comment is awkward in light of own RP N/A N/A Still voting on Experience Villager None D1 27 Araris Claims House Urbain N/A N/A Check whether Araris displays sufficient paranoia NAI Kasimir, Renegade, Gamma Fiend, Newan D1 28 Archer Suggests worst case is elims have a faction doc they aren't in, try to hamstring it by killing members. Thinks claiming closes info gap rather than exposing new information N/A N/A IKYK? Watch elim kills - targetting one house to give the impression of no sight in it? Eliminator None D1 29 Thaidakar Joke response N/A N/A None Villager None D1 30 Kasimir Discovery joke not meant for Archer. Is pro claiming factions, agrees with Archer's line of thought. Welcomes Araris to House Urbain N/A N/A Agree with claiming factions. See little reason not to. NAI None D1 31 Matrim Doesn't think we should reveal Empires in case someone reveals knowledge they shouldn't have N/A N/A Disagree. Proposing it to allow for potential future knowledge, but at cost of interactions analysis. Seems very simple line of thinking. Trying to get village cred for making point contrary to emerging thread consensus? Mild elim None D1 32 Kasimir Asks Matrim how we'd know an elim knows more than they should, if we don't know it N/A N/A Presumably reliant on members of doc player x has information about noticing they have information they shouldn't NAI Riposte to Matrim D1 33 Thaidakar Notes Kas not GMing N/A N/A NAI Villager (Obviously) not e/e with Kas D1 34 Matrim Responds to Kas. Knows who is in his doc. If someone outside his doc knows who is in doc, then that's weird N/A N/A Argument not even about information/thoughts from within doc, just members. Feels far less thought out than I'd expect from Matrim. Unsure AI Unsure None D1 35 Ashbringer Has sent out all Empire docs GM GM GM GM GM D1 36 Amanuensis Votes on Thaidakar Thaidakar N/A Pressure vote, but again, why? Doesn't directly maximise conversation - so to see what other's think about it/whether anyone tries to take pressure away from Thaid? Unsure. Possible information generating play - mild vil Votes on Thaidakar D1 37 Thaidakar Asks Aman why he's voting on Thaid N/A N/A Fair question Villager None D1 38 Amanuensis Voted on Thaid to fit in N/A N/A Joke, presumably NAI None D1 39 Thaidakar Can't blame Aman for wanting to fit in, does so himself N/A N/A Seems accurate reflection of previous Thaid meta Villager None D1 40 Kasimir Is hyper/delirious. Fundamentally disagrees with Matrim, ascribes low probability to information slips. Has formatted the Arelene doc. Praises God. N/A N/A Suspect post made after seeing Arelene doc membership - was also hyper there. Think difficult to project depth of emotion if not genuine. Moderate village Is in doc with TJ, Orlok, Shadow D1 41 Amanuensis Thinks Kas might have broken, suggests he sleeps, and that we love him. Provides vote count, suggests wagon formation catches elims N/A N/A Agree that Kas broken, although it was a pleasure to see Kas so happy. Gut mild good Mild good None D1 42 Kasimir Jokes to Aman, confesses love. Is going to get breakfast then sleep. N/A N/A Possibly needs a cold shower. NAI Aman D1 43 Amanuensis Village reads Kasimir and Experience, lowest read Thaidakar. Everyone else in between in middle tier N/A N/A Still don't believe Thaidakar read genuine. Query. NAI V reads Kas, Experience D1 44 Araris Votes on Devotary Devotary N/A No explanation, but believe it to be because Devotary didn't provide statements engaging with game. On reflection, recall similar behaviour from Devo in MR56 Very mild village Votes on Devotary D1 45 Elbereth IM check in, RP IM IM IM IM IM D1 46 Illwei Jokes about being in Roshar doc, is lonely N/A N/A None Eliminator None D1 47 Amanuensis Until his Empire vote to reveal themselves, is going to step up as Teoish Emissary. Teoish Empire have five members, so are assuming one or two elims. Given 18 players, guesses four elims, so thinks one doc uncompromised, as thinks GM would enjoy village paranoia. Suggests other Emissaries step up and provide Empire numbers, as good enough D1 discussion topic N/A N/A Strong query - recall Aman has historically expressed dislike of D1 distribution speculation (including in QF59?). Mild gut dislike of Aman putting himself in position of authority - but always paranoid of thread control!Aman. Do like information transparency, which he is encouraging from others. Unsure Teoish Empire D1 48 JNV Asks Ashbringer if we know which of five empires from the rules wasn't included, but comments that he doesn't think it makes a difference. Looks forward to seeing Kas' doc - has heard he's the fancy doc guy. Replies to Matrim. Doesn't think an elim would make a slip about knowing Empire membership. Has read game in Art of Game creation, remembers Ashbringer saying 0-2 eliminators per doc. Thinks no harm revealing and clears up people being linked because share an empire vs nefarious connections. Thinks Thaidakar more engaged than other games, but they're never consistent between games. RPs. N/A N/A If pro empire revealing, why not reveal his own Empire? Information can't be unrevealed, so if strong belief, then can act on it unilaterally. No thoughts on players - query thoughts on why Matrim would make suggestion. Makes very good point about doc links clarifying player links. Gut very mild village None D1 49 Matrim Doesn't think anyone would slip on purpose, doesn't see benefit revealing when half the point of docs is that they're secret. Thinks possibility of elims slipping outweighs benefits of claiming. Thinks docs were true RNGd, doesn't think elims equally spread. Doesn't think we can clear people based on being in doc with one or two elims N/A N/A Vehemently disagree. Feels almost TWTBAW. Doesn't engage with JNV's point about doc membership helping with nature of links. Why working under assumption of RNGd docs? Admittedly possible, but reads as agenda pushing. Elims have information on doc membership already, whether whole or partial, therefore only secret to the village Gut moderate evil None D1 50 StrikerEZ Jokingly suggests one elpire doc only elims, and that that elim might bus remainder and deepwolf. Votes on Thaidakar, because why not. Dislikes Aman and Matrim's points, can't decide whether they're suspicious Thaidakar N/A If dislike point on D1, vote worthy - no real case for voting for Thaidakar, can't see any thinking behind it. Worried about pressure from voting for one of them? Mild evil Dislikes points made by Aman and Matrim, votes Thaidakar D1 51 Devotary Responds to Archer, works through elim knowledge of vil empire membership based on doc distribution. Replies to Matrim, points out docs probably already known to elims. Knowing who is in a doc less important than what is happening in it, so emissaries only make sense if others in doc willing to step up to correct misleading information. True RNG more likely to give an even distribution than Ash handpicking, but doesn't know what odds are of even distribution given RNG N/A N/A Why *wouldn't* doc members be willing to step up to correct emissary being misleading. Again engaging with mechanics of game, not player alignments. Hiding behind mechanical workings? Mild evil None D1 52 Amanuensis Disagrees with Matrim that point of docs is to be secret. Identities were confirmed on entering. Thinks point of doc to replace PMs. Allows players to work together outside the thread, and keep eachother accountable in smaller circles. Doesn't think there's a pre-assigned point to the docs. For each empire to decide how to handle them internally. Thinsk Matrim's RNG assumption naive, if not intentionally misleading, as RNG could lead to every elim being in one doc or 2+ docs being elim free. Votes on Matrim, asks him to state five reasons (or as many as he can) why keeping empire rosters secret benefits the village. Wants to know where Matrim's thinking is coming from. Votes on Striker, asks him which of Matrim's points he dislikes, and which of Aman's points he dislikes, and whether either Matrim or Aman is suspicious for them. Reads list has Kasimir and Experience at top, then JNV, Archer, Illwei, Baker, non-posters, then Thaidakar, then Matrim and Striker Matrim, Striker Thaidakar Agree strongly with all of Aman's points - although think he's also not pointing out the obvious retort to secrecy identified by JNV, that docs are already less secret to elims. Get moderate read that Aman trying to solve. Moderate village See reads list D1 53 StrikerEZ Replies to Matrim, disliked Matrim's post Aman quoted, for reasons Aman provided. Disliked Aman thinking one empire doc was definitely not compromised. Thought Aman was trying to set up a plan where faction eliminated, then elim claims faction and says they think the whole faction was village. Votes on Matrim as suspects him more than Aman, voted on Thaid because it was funny Matrim Thaidakar Strong dislike of parroting Aman, no original thoughts. Specifics of paranoia about Aman seem fabricated - immediately disproven by trye faction member of elim claiming that faction Moderate evil Votes on Matrim D1 54 Ashbringer Vote Count GM GM GM GM GM D1 55 Kasimir Remains hyper, has discarded plans to play game as RP!Philosopher!Kas or Araris!Kas because is Hyper!Kas. Loves JNV too. Wishes everyone a good time. Thinks Aman right suggesting four elims. Doesn't think we have sufficient sight of the distro. Thinks open question re docs being uncompromised - in LG7 uncompromised docs hit hardest, but elims will play mindgames with NK. Keeping anything about his Empire to internal discussion, doesn't feel right acting unilaterally. Suggests given four docs, 4-4-5-5 or 3-4-6-5 as possibilities. Thinks dispute over doc compromise is moot as can't assume and don't have enough distro information to work with. Positive gut on Aman, unnerved by speed of his reads list N/A N/A Sorry, Kas - haven't seen if you've been more open, but acting unilaterally myself on Arelene doc as see no value in secrecy. Think Aman's reads list less unnerving than appears, as fundamentally only ordering some players - appears more than it is. Find post difficult to read one way or the other Unsure Positive gut on Aman D1 56 Bort RP. Questions Aman's vote being on Matrim not Striker in Ashbringer's vote count. Thinks makeup of each doc is for each empire to decide. If four empires, elims are either in four or three of the, so already know distro, so doesn't make a difference to share information. Slight suspicion that JNV's views on Kas doing up docs from elim doc not empire doc. Poke votes Tani Tani N/A Given views on elim information, mild disagreement with reluctance to unilterally share information to even information balance. Why poke vote? Unsure Votes on Tani D1 57 Amanuensis Unvotes Striker for response. Restates vote on Matrim. Is of opinion that each Empire should be a democracy, support each faction sharing what they wish. 3/4ths of Teoish brethen voted for empire reveals, will leave them to claim allegiance in thread. Will be updating tierlist frequently, but might put players in positions that differ from actual views. Will leave final worldview each night incase of night kill. Puts Kasimir/Striker at top or readslist, then Experience/Archer, then JNV, Illwei, Baker, Sibling, Bort, Tani, Devotary, Araris, Orlok, Shadow, TJ, then Thaidakar/Matrim Matrim Striker Did not find Striker's response convincing in the slightest. Query what about it made Aman move him to the top? Belief that E!Striker would have responded in different manner? If so, how? States that he believes himself to be night kill target. Gut dislike of clearance of Striker. Do like playing games with read uncertainty. Dislike calling attention to self as nightkill target Mild evil/unsure Odd clearance of Striker D1 58 Kasimir Asks Aman if given uncertainty in readslist, he intends to intervene if actual village read looks like they're going to be mislynched. Is aware of what Aman is doing and why, interested in extent of commitment to this. Devotary Thaidakar Can see why voting Devo from my own assessment, would have liked to see explanation from Kas Mild good Votes on Devotary D1 59 Matrim Thinks docs replace PMs, has never seen a game where everyone claimed all PMs in thead. Responds to Aman callig RNG assumption naive or misleading. Thinks it could be naive - has had a hectic day, first time sitting down and thinking about game. Doesn't understand why it could be misleading. Thinks misleading implies secrecy option harmful, when anything achieved by open claiming can be achieved through emissaries. Isn't going to give five reasons for empire secrecy, as hasn't seen five reasons for publicising them. Isn't goign to ask for them, as doesn't think it worth going there. Thinks arguments both ways, but prefers to keep membership hidden. Thinks it funny that differing opinions on this is enough for a vote. Thinks it odd that Aman is voting for him for suggesting a level of sharing having said he supports each faction in sharing as much as they want. Gives thoughts on gamestate. Voted Thaid as a joke, and because he doesn't think Thaid has cared so much about votes before. Change in playstyle might equal change in alignment. LIkes Aman's approach to the game so fat. Thinks Striker's vote reads like opportunistic elim Striker. Archer/Thaid not e/e. N/A N/A Post feels defensive. Response to Aman is on technicalities, not on providing a reason for secrecy beyond "elims might slip". Thinks Aman is being uncharitable with reading Aman, yet likes how Aman is approaching the game - inconsistency? Vote on Thaid, and Thaid/Archer not e/e might be limited defence of Archer. Sense of frustration from post. Unsure if alignment indicative. Logic on Thaidakar is odd - Thaidakar was asking about votes which hadn't had a reason provided. Matrim was third vote on Thaidakar. Mild evil Suspicious of Striker, Archer/Thaid not e/e, doesn't vote on Aman D1 60 JNV Wrote program doing randomised elim distribution within factions. Thinks if true RNG then most likely 0, 1, 1, 2. Knows of Kas's doc skills from a dead doc. Asks Matrim for his empire's thoughts on sharing their membership. Could see e!Thaidakar but they tend to be more engaged C1, and dislikes way votes arrived on them. Looks at Thaidakar progression. Doesn't think Thaidakar is evil, particularly given no one else protesting the votes on them. Doesn't have suspicions except Matrim for tonal response to Aman N/A N/A Making very considerable effort. Program makes big assumption re RNG though, but interesting to see conclusion given assumptions. Like thinking about Thaidakar. Mild good Defends Thaidakar D1 61 Experience Posts in character. Claims Teod Empire. Thinks we should all tell which Empire we're from. Claims to be emissary of disruptors. N/A N/A High effort. Agree with thinking on sharing empires. Missed Disruptor claim at first pass. Now known village, but not sure why he's claiming it Villager Teoish Empire D1 62 Kasimir Doesn't think doc distribution is pure RNG. RNG results have to be allowed or annulled by a GM. From GM perspective one elim per doc is great as no doc can coordinate without elim infiltration. Also something good about uninfiltrated docs - village paranoia, and elim fog of war. We don't know which world we're in, so can't take an elim in a doc as a clear. Do not have enough information to say prima facie which world we're in, not included to further engage with distribution inferences. SHould be able to draw less tenuous conclusions by C3 from flips. N/A N/A Makes sensible points, not alignment indicative NAI None D1 63 Ashbringer Vote Count GM GM GM GM GM D1 64 Devotary Doesn't think emissary can be objective, thinks we'll end up with members of empires contradicting their emissary, or everyone in doc voting on emissary's wording. Votes on Experience for claiming elim. Experience N/A Not actually sure how idea of emissaries became so useful, or what their function actually is. To tell us anything useful about their faction, they'll have to reveal faction members regardless. Hadn't spotted Experience's claim until this point. Opportunistic vote on a joke? Might believe Experience msunderstood game? Villager Votes on Experience D1 65 The Baker Votes on Thaidakar. Provides picture of mouldy bread. Thaidakar N/A Going to struggle with understanding The Baker if no reasoning for votes continues Unsure Votes on Thaidakar D1 66 Kasimir Replies to Devotary with examples of villagers making elim claims in RP or as a gambit N/A N/A Sensible Given v!Experience, mild village Defence of Experience D1 67 Experience Is doing as Kas suggested N/A N/A Fair, but was a potentially derailing action Villager None D1 68 Devotary Responds to Kas, says each example listed had a reason, Experience hasn't done anything like it before, setting up an IKYK that should be resolved directly N/A N/A Very narrow reading of Experience. Agenda driven? Mild evil Pushing Experience D1 69 Kasimir Has filed Experience as a high chaos player, with high risk threshold. Doesn't see claim as odd for that sort of player. Doesn't think it's even an IKYK. Squinting at Devotary's post N/A N/A Possible that confident in v!reading Experience because TMI, but honestly see it as just a sensible read. Mild village Defence of Experience D1 70 Illwei Likes JNV. Thinks Araris village, Matrim village. Thinks anyone claiming elim should be ignored. N/A N/A Now known evil. Village read on Matrim notable, but risky if e/e. Eliminator Araris/Matrim village D1 71 Tani Replies to Bort's poke vote, wanted to say something cool, doesn't know what to say. N/A N/A None NAI None D1 72 Illwei Thinks Tani either village or e/e with Bort N/A N/A Unsure Eliminator Tani either village or e/e with Bort D1 73 Araris Replies to Illwei, says you can just kill people claiming Eliminator, to force everyone to ignore them N/A N/A Possible joke response? Doesn't vote on Experience - indeed is still voting on Devotary. Hasn't offered much thinking Gut mild village None D1 74 Bort Humours Tani, retracts poke vote, poke votes on Shadow. Shadow Tani Dislike self-admitted poke votes, think they achieve very little Very mild elim Poke votes Shadow D1 75 Araris Dislikes poke votes, may have to stab vote Bort if he persists with them. Asks if anyone has any appetite for voting on Devotary, or if not Bort or Tani N/A N/A Bort/Tani odd choices, hasn't given reasoning yet for Devotary vote, interesting that pushing it. Implied disregard of Experience's claim (as I think is sensible). Unsure Pushes for votes on Devotary, Bort or Tani D1 76 Kasimir Asks Bort whether he's trying to kill Tani (or Shadow?) or get her to post. Replies to Araris. Has weak negative gut read on Bort, has already joined on Devotary, would favour Devotary over Bort N/A N/A Reference to the best SE post of all time, presumably. Interesting negative gut on Bort - behaviour different to the MR - assesses as Bort's response to the MR? Very weak mild village None D1 77 StrikerEZ Votes on Devotary, is exhausted, won't be around for long but will be around at rollover Devotary Matrim No explanation for coming off Matrim onto Devotary. As an aside, not sure why people feel need to comment on being around at rollover. Why is participation there more important than elsewhere in game? Mild evil Votes on Devotary, retracts on Matrim D1 78 Experience Asks Striker whether he has a reason for the vote, comments that if people reasoned their votes this wouldn't have to be asked the whole time N/A N/A I like you, Experience. Villager Asks Striker to justify his vote D1 79 Kasimir Says Experience should reflect on his actions, having RPd as an elim without comment N/A N/A Joke NAI None D1 80 Experience Claims reason for elim RP forthcoming, asks for patience N/A N/A Not going to engage here Villager None D1 81 Bort Replies to Araris disliking poke votes, pulls out LG75 post from Araris poke voting on Tani N/A N/A Effort to find post from a year ago, in game Bort didn't play. Odd thing to search for. Suspect situation difference Mild evil None D1 82 Kasimir Notes double standard from Experience asking for reasons on votes, but withholding reason for his elim RP N/A N/A Situation feels slightly different - post reasoning important in thinking, this is either a gambit or RP, with thinking promised to come NAI None D1 83 Experience Admits contradicting self, isn't going to give own reason yet, so voters without reason should feel free to stay silent N/A N/A Just odd at this stage. Gambit so obviously a gambit, that he thinks is worth not pressuring vote reasons for? Villager None D1 84 Kasimir Thinks Experience's claim looks like bait. Thinks Devotary's response too rigid, wonders if a failed projection from e!Devo of villager response to RP elim claim. THinks history of such claims with regards to RP, from player of Experience's profile should give anyone pause. If Devo does think it's an e!Exp gambit, doesn't see it winning trust. Just gets a squint. What's point from e!Exp's perspective? Devotary's vote just doesn't feel right. Asks Experience why he singles Striker out for his vote without explanation, not Araris N/A N/A Strong sense of mindmeld on thinking re Experience's claim and Devo's response. Mild village Suspicious of Devotary D1 85 Experience Didn't notice Araris' vote, Striker voted so asked him in response N/A N/A Not going to second guess this Villager None D1 86 Matrim Apologises for being disengaged. Thinks Experience's claim is NAI as was devised in their empire doc, and Aman is in that Empire doc. Got a village feel from explanations N/A N/A Can't remember seeing anything about claim being devised in Empire doc?

I think someone else is going by your name in the darkfriend doc, then... Potentially?

Cycle Summaries (cont.): Cycle Five: 1) Matrim wonders where the Veterans are, is confused why Xino didn't self pres. Doesn't think TJ and Aman are e/e. 2) Aman expresses confusion. 3) Matrim votes on Aman, can't see his votes from a village perspective. Doesn't see v!Aman staying parked on an inactive C4. Thinks v!Aman too invested in solving. 4) Aman votes on TJ. Puts JNV/Orlok top trusts, TUN middle, Matrim/TJ lowest. Accuses Matrim and TJ of hammering. Says Aman didn't move vote because couldn't be online. Kill must have come from Matrim or TJ. 5) Matrim notes Orlok or TUN could have submitted kill as were online within C4. Says Aman ignoring point, which was that he went for TUN to begin with. Aman chased side train. Pulls up historic posts showing some reasoning for TUN. Provides reasoning for not voting Xino. Asks TJ why he joined Matrim, who he was suspicious of, in voting on Aman. 6) Matrim thinks Thaid kill makes sense from any PoV as was unanimously trusted. 7) Aman votes on Matrim, argues Matrim tunnelling on him, and that such a tunnel must only be fabricated. Brings up Matrim's post voting on Orlok defending Bort, suggests partnered with Bort. Accuses him of pushing lynch on Xino, then trying to get Aman voted out. Says only possible Araris busser, yet Thaid was killed over Matrim. Apologises to TJ for doubting him about the Araris train being corrupt. 8) Matrim thinks Aman's points tangential to what he's quoting. 9) Xino votes TJ. C5 thoughts/notes: #3 - haven't got there yet, but how on earth did Aman wriggle out of this and have you voting on TJ for the first half of this cycle after this, @Matrim's Dice? #6 Thaid also a wildcard at LyLo. #7 - apologies from Aman.... Not going to be able to come close to finishing this before the end of the cycle, unfortunately. Pre end-of-cycle conclusions: TJ/Matrim not e/e. TJ/Aman not e/e. Matrim/Aman not e/e. Overall, Aman is most definitely evil, and isn't evil with Matrim or TJ. As such, I ought to vote: TJ Sorry I'm late :/ Really, truly, wish I'd been around. You've just been in two elim docs with me! Of course you know it!

Cycle Summaries (cont.): Cycle Four: 1) Matrim recognises he looks bad from being connected to Bort, commits to rethinking. 2) Aman expresses glee at catching an eliminator. He suggests Orlok bussed an elim for the second game in a row, and asks for answers to his questions yesterday. Reads Thaid as top trust, then Orlok/Matrim, TJ/JNV, TUN/Xino lowest trust. Claims he and Stick were right, and TUN is last eliminator by PoE. Moved Xino down because he's been a non-factor, suspects Xino trying to replicate Orlok clear from Araris' death. Thinks JNV not voting is notable, votes on TUA. 3) Thaidakar votes on Orlok. 4) Matrim struggles with conclusions from re-reading. Commits to not reassessing Orlok except at LyLo for Araris and pushign Bort. Feels Thaid disconnected, with vil-slip moments. Thinks JNV trying, gets village vibes. Thinks all of JNV, Thaid, Orlok are villagers. Gets a gut village read on TJ, is sympathetic to his confusion, but thinks TJ has been on the wrong side of debates and EoDs. Stopped form firm village reads by similarities to LG83. Doesn't like how Aman e!read Bort but voted on Orlok. Gut elim read. Wants to ISO Xino. Thinks he's generally under the radar, thinks he elim read Bort yet voted on TJ. Votes on Xino, commits to reaffirming it or changing it after an ISO. 4) Xino is suspicious of TJ's elder claim. 5) Aman notes that with e!Elder!Araris, the existence of Village Elders is abitrary, and so this isn't a point against TJ. Thinks the lack of veterans is notable, but tat the game had a small roster, and we've only had 6/14 flips. Claims Veteran. 6) Thaidakar finds Aman's veteran claim suspicious, votes on him for it. 7) Aman claims that his veteran claim was an IKYK. 8) Thaidakar misunderstands. 9) Aman spells it out. 10) Thaidakar thinks it's Aman trying to turn away suspicion. 11) Matrim thinks it interesting that Aman claims to think he's a NK target. 12) Aman claims he is because he's ramping up on the game, and that he's a big part of why Bort was voted out. 13) JNV trusts Matrim, doesn't think an eliminator would be so obvious in moving off Bort. Thinks it unlikely that Bort and Orlok are evil unless Orlok really likes bussing. Thinks Aman is the only player that really feels village. Might be bad memory becuase remembers emotions well, facts not well. Can't see Archer kill coming from TJ. Thinks way he was arguing against Aman and TUN possibly evil. TUN possibly evil alone. ISOs Xinoehp, votes on him. 14) Aman hadn't noticed Xino defending Bort D1. Wants to deep dive Xino, suggests JNV may be pocketing him. 15) Matrim thinks Xino's D1 Bort defence is moot, as everyone was. 16) Aman needs to reread D1. 17) Matrim ISOs Xino, focuses on reads progression. Notes Xino left Araris out of D1 reads, but put him as evil when this was pointed out. Xino was first person to v!read Bort, did so when Bort had two votes. C2 village tier nearly identical - might be elim being lazy with new list. Notes Xino never articulated moving Stick up his list. Is suspicious of Xino's reasoning for his C1 Araris bucketing. Calls out Xino shifting Bort down in second list for bad vibes. Thinks C2 progression natural. Notes Thaid stayed in Xino's list, despite vil-slips. Is happy with vote on Xino, thinks well within PoE. Potentially e/e with Orlok, not with TJ or Thaid. 18) Xinoehp votes on TJ. 19) Thaid is convinced by Aman, votes on Xino. 20) Matrim asks Xino why he isn't voting on TUN or Aman, as no chance of TJ lynch, surely he'd want to self-pres? 21) Xino doesn't feel it as still village loss if v!TJ lynched C4, v!Xino C5. 22) Aman asks Xino who he thinks is an eliminator. Doesn't like three of his town reads voting Xino - gets village vibe from him. Asks TJ what he thinks of Xino tunnelling him, given TJ spent the game tunnelling Stick/Archer. 23) Aman thinks one elim between TUN and Xino, TJ fourth elim if Xino flips evil, as Xino might be trying to distance TJ. If Xino town, then just TUN, or TUN +someone pushing Xino. 24) TJ replies to Aman suggesting he spent game tunnelling Stick/Archer. Thinks different to Xino, as TJ had wider PoE. TJ's current PoE is TUN, Xino, Matrim, Aman, votes on Xino. Matrim in PoE for Bort defence. Edits, changes mind, votes on Aman. 25) Matrim votes on Aman without explanation. 26) Xino votes on Xino. 27) TJ's gut says Xino village. Thinks Orlok not elim unless e/e with Matrim, which isn't possible because Matrim went after Orlok C3. Remaining players are TUN and Aman. 28) Matrim's vote on Aman is for gut that refuses to go away. Thinks Aman's play reminds him of Hyena more than any other game. Aman's votes don't match what he's saying - vocally suspects Xino, votes on the inactive. Confidence in being NKd. Wanted PM with Orlok but didn't send Orlok one. 29) Xino retracts. C4 thoughts/notes: #2. Strongly dislike tying himself to Stick - feels like piggybacking on village cred. #3 - I'll regret this one day, but never ever clear Orlok from having voted on or pushed eliminators. Have you all forgotten my eliminator doctrine? #4 - evidence for 3v1V? #10 - I really struggle with Thaidakar's playstyle, but however he does it, this game has had him voting correctly on Bort and Aman. Note to all to pay attention to his votes a little more charitably going forward. #12 Aman was also the third vote on Orlok. Not privy to PMs, but as a general policy, Aman is lethal if allowed to manipulate in PMs. #13 - see #3. More importantly still, when analysing Aman, always look at the facts, not the way he makes you feel - indeed, if he's making you feel something, take a cold shower, and be very wary. #14 - where has Aman got his certainty of e!TUN from? Very low hanging fruit, setting up a mislynch. #24 - less likely Aman/TJ e/e. #28 make me highly doubt Aman/Matrim (although I've already ruled out) C4 Conclusions: Increasingly can't see Aman/TJ. Very surprised to see Aman still alive C6 after a C4 like this. Running out of time, so will do a bit of C5 for myself, then a few posts from this cycle. Will finish this next cycle (or even in the aftermath, for fun).

Introduction: Firstly, I want to apologise again for not being here for the last two cycles. I think this is probably too late, but a very large part of me wants to atone for my absence. If I wasn't here for the cycles, I want to be able to say that I've done the work I would have done had I been present. I'm doing this for me, more than for anyone else. I'm starting this post without having properly read the end of cycle three, or much at all of cycles four and five. My starting point here is the following: Distribution: On distribution, I assign a very low credence to a three member, all regular elim team. On game mechanics alone, the eliminators were going to lose a member. I am taking as a prior that a vanilla three elim team is extremely unlikely. An obvious consequence of this is that we are now at either 2v2, or 3vV1. If we have no village veterans, then a 2v2 gives us only a 25% chance of winning. The eliminators will hammer today, for a 50% chance of winning this cycle, and if unsuccessful, a further 50% chance of winning next cycle. If we're 3vV1, then a correct lynch today repeated tomorrow is a village victory - we go 2v1 tomorrow, and win C7. A village veteran reduces the probability of an eliminator victory in a 1R1Vv2 world. If the hammer is on the regular villager, then the eliminators have a 50% chance of winning outright this cycle (as they can outvote the veteran C7), but lose C7 if unsuccessful (2v1). If the hammer is on the veteran villager, then the kill is on the regular villager, and the eliminators have a 50% chance of victory this cycle, and if unsuccessful a 50% chance of victory C7 (1Vv1). Interesting, unintuitive conclusion here that if we have 1R1Vv2R, the eliminators ought to hammer the Veteran. In a 2R1Vv1V world, or even a 1R2Vv1V world, nothing changes from a 3Rv1V world - a correct lynch this cycle is game winning. Irrelevantly, given this conclusion, I think a 3Rv1V world is more likely than vilager veterans if there's an e!Veteran - I think an eliminator team guaranteed to go to two voting players is fairly weak, and is therefore less likely to face a village veteran than a 4 player starting elim team. I think that the fact that we haven't seen a village veteran yet is moderately evidence that we have no village veterans. I could probably prove this with probability theory (but am not going to unless I get very bored tomorrow) - the likelihood of not encountering one, across three lynched villagers and five killed villagers, is intuitively very low. Given the (admittedly unproven) lower likelihood of a village veteran, we can, through Bayesian updating, in turn increase (marginally) our belief in a 3v1 world, as no village veterans is more likely there than in a 2v2 world. I don't know that any of the above is useful except as a thought exercise - but in conclusion, we're either at 2v2 in which case we have a 25% chance of winning, or are in a 3v1V world, which I think is slightly more likely, in which case a correct lynch today is game winning. Alignment priors: Matrim - as a starting point, I think Matrim is nearly confirmed village. My recollection is that my belief in this derives from a villager slip D1, and from his participation in the Araris lynch. TJ - I have/had no real read on TJ - I couldn't tell you anything about his posts, except that he suspected (and was suspected by?) Archer. Aman - Very limited recollection of Aman's C2 posts, except that he claimed not to have read C1 before engaging in C2. I was going to just go from C3 onwards, but writing the above tells me I really do need to reread C1 and C2 as well. Fundamentally, need to freshly evaluate TJ and Aman, but any evaluation on Matrim is a re-evaluation from an existing strong v!Matrim credence. Cycle Summaries: Aiming here to summate the relevant posts from each cycle, and the cycle as a whole. Cycle One: 1) Matrim opens the game suggesting an early fang use. 2) TJ is opposed to a D1 fang, as he feels there is more to gain from a fang done once connections exist to analyse. 3) Matrim suggests waiting until two eliminators are dead to use the fang. 4) TJ believes in a four elim team, and from concludes that using the fang C2 is optimal. TJ corrects Matrim's misunderstanding of the fang. 5) Stick questions wording of TJ's post. 6) TJ continues to focus on benefits of elim connections from a delayed fang. 7) Matrim argues for a D1 fang, on the grounds that it is wasted if we lynch an eliminator D1. (Kas swiftly enlightens us with the OOA). 8) TJ votes on Stick for nitpicking wording. 9) Bort proposes no D1 lynch, and a fang instead. 10) Araris votes on Matrim, for his views on when the fang should be used. 11) Archer suggests the Fang will only hurt the eliminators if lynch pressure forces them to use it on a player they were not planning to be fanged, then votes on Bort for his no lynch proposal. 12) Matrim argues that Bort was not proposing a no lynch C1, as the lynch comes before the fang in the OOA, and calls Archer's vote on Bort weird. 13) Striker votes on Bort. 14) Bort updates his view, arguing now for a C1 fang, and poke votes on Aman. 15) TJ argues a four elim team, and believes Archer's analysis includes too much elim strategising. He reiterates his argument that Stick's question in her first post looked performative. 16) Mat places Archer, Illwei, Striker, Orlok, Bort, TJ, and JNV in his "Good Bucket", and Thaid, Xino, Stick, and Araris in his "Bad Bucket", before voting on Thaidakar. Bort is v! read because Matrim sympathises with his takes, believes Bort is trying to figure things out, and is handling the votes on him well. Araris is e! read because he voted on Matrim without an explanation. 17) Matrim suggests Thaidakar is avoiding the thread, and that he gets bad vibes from their PM. 18) TJ continues to suspect Stick for her nitpicking, and her defence of it. TJ reads Matrim, Bort, and Orlok as village, Striker, JNV, Araris and Illwei as null, and Stick, Xino, Archer, and Thaidakar as evil. 19) Araris moves his vote from Matrim to Striker. 20) Matrim pushes Araris on his stance on using the Fang. 21) Archer does not like Bort's move from Matrim to Striker. 22) Aman thought the game started 24 hours into the cycle, and tongue-in-cheek claims Elder and Veteran. 23) Matrim thinks Thaidakar's opinions in PMs are odd, and doesn't think Stick should die C1. 24) Striker votes on Araris. 25) Matrim notes Araris' reason for the switch makes even less sense, as he also had more in his good pile than Xino. 26) Araris missed Matrim's list, raises being e/e with Striker or Matrim as the only reason why he'd have to reach to vote there. 27) Bort moves from Aman to Thaidakar in defence of Stick. 28) Araris votes on Stick, and notes he is not a fan of voting alongside Matrim. 29) TJ refuses to move from Stick onto Thaidakar, as his Stick vote is reasoned, and his TJ read is gut. 30) Matrim says he'd be fine voting on Araris, gives village points to TJ for not moving to Thaidakar, and is nervous as to people joining him on Thaidakar given his private reasoning for the vote. 31) Stick votes on Araris. 32) Archer votes on Araris. 33) Matrim votes on Araris. 34) TJ feels continues to feel iffy about Archer from his thought process on how the eliminators might suffer from the fang. He thinks that if there's a bus, it's on Araris. Maintains his vote on Stick. Overall summary of C1: Initial discussion of the use of the fang. Voting relatively fluid, consolidation at points on Stick and Thaid, late train on Araris. C1 conclusions: On re-evaluation feeling very safe in my strong v!read of Matrim. I've already factored #3, and Matrim's vote on Araris into my priors, and so they don't increase my credence of v!Matrim, and I see no reason to weaken how strongly I weight them. Matrim does defend Bort in #16, in what is a very charitable manner, given the posts themselves. TJ spends a lot of the cycle focused on one line of one of Stick's posts, in what can only be described as a pretty severe tunnel. His thoughts on the use of the fang feel genuine, and he reevaluates on it. Aman makes no game-relevant posts. Notes: Bort poke votes Aman Araris pushes e!Matrim Cycle Two: 1) Matrim wonders how shared the opposition to an early fang was amongst the eliminators, and is suspicious that Thaidakar held that view because Araris held it. 2) Bort asks what caused the Araris "bus". 3) Matrim wonders whether Bort's wording was an elim slip. 4) Archer thinks Araris was the designated fang sacrifice. He thinks the vote pattern is indicative of v!Stick, but gets e!vibes from TJ not moving after Araris' vote. 5) Matrim voted to use the fang, and challenges Archer's assumption that Araris was the designated fang target. 6) Archer says he discussed veterans in his PM with Araris, and therefore that the elims were considering veterans. 7) Aman says he's not backreading D1, and would rather interact with players in real time. He asks for players' accounts of D1, and congratulates the village on the elim flip. 8) Matrim expresses suspicion of Thaidakar for mirroring Araris' opinion and Araris moving the lynch from Thaidakar, but holds off on voting pending a full vote analysis. 9) Aman still hasn't read C1. He expresses confusion about Matrim prodding Bort. He assesses Stick as Araris' preferred mislynch. Aman expresses that he'd have liked a D3 fang, to get the most out of the mechanic from a game-solving perspective. He comments on Archer's belief that Araris was the fang target, and says if he was evil, he'd advocate being the fang target himself. 10) JNV responds to many of Aman's questions about C1. 11) Aman still hasn't read C1. Aman believes the Araris lynch wasn't necessarily a bus, and is apprehensive about anyone concuding that. Aman v!reads Orlok for retracting on Stick, rather than moving onto Araris. Aman commits to reading C1. 12) Archer reads Thaidakar as disconnected, not evil, and votes on TJ for not moving his vote during the end of D1. 13) Matrim responds to Aman's questions about Araris/Striker/Matrim. Matrim thinks if there was a bus, it most likely came from Striker. Matrim says his prod of Bort was a joke, and replies to other questions from Aman. 14) TJ asks why everyone is assuming Araris/Stick was v/e. 15) Matrim attempts a vote analysis of D1. He notes TJ's vote on Stick as shaky (although says he agreed with it at the time), Araris' vote on him, and Thaidakar's vote on TJ, which he questions as distancing. Matrim pushes Thaidakar's movement to Stick as further distancing from TJ. MAtrim concludes Araris' vote on Striker means v!Striker. Reevaluates, and believes the Araris train was pure. Clears Stick for her move to Araris. Clears Archer. Gives Orlok village points for unvoting Stick, notes this was critical to Araris lynch. Doesn't agree with Archer that TJ suspicious for not doing anything at the EoD. Votes on TJ for his Stick vote. 15) Bort claims to be confused about the meaning of the phrase "Bus". 16) Stick voted on Araris as she saw others were suspicious of him, and his poke vote on Matrim switching to Striker being atypical. 17) Matrim explains bus/bandwagon distinction to Bort. 18) JNV argues Stick's question that triggered TJ's vote didn't feel performative. 19) Orlok posts a long series of butchered quotes, asks questions, votes on Bort. 20) Matrim replies to Orlok, says his suspicion of Thaidakar wasn't from subverting expectations about his view on the fang, but the tone and way he argued it. Matrim now leaning towards disengaged v!Thaidakar. Thinks only one of Thaidakar/TJ evil, leaning TJ. 21) Bort attacks Archer, suggests Archer is twisting everything Bort said to the extreme. 22) TJ responds to Archer's vote. Argues he is static in playstyle on D1 voting, and that he left his vote on Stick because if he finds someone suspicious D1 it will take a lot to make him change his vote. Didn't vote on Araris because he had no memory of Araris' posts or the reasons for voting for him. Further explains why he was suspicious of Stick's C1 question. Notes Matrim's post voting on TJ was predicated on ties/interactions with Thaidakar. Votes on Archer for removing all Araris voters from elim pool, and for feeling malicious all game. Claims v!Elder. 23) Matrim moves his vote from TJ to Striker, because he likes TJ's exlanation for his static Stick vote, and TJ "sticking to [his] guns" even is he is "baffled by those guns". Is side eyeing TJ for voting on Archer. 24) TJ is deferring thinking about Striker until tomorrow. Striker is on his e! list from reads from other players. 25) Matrim considers moving back to TJ following PoE from JNV. 26) Striker votes on Archer. 27) Bort votes on Archer. v!reads Stick, Thaidakar, Matrim, JNV, TJ, Orlok. Is suspicious of Archer, wants to hear more from TUN and Aman. Thinks Archer and TUN, Striker are evil, suspects Striker least. 28) Xinoehp votes on TJ in preference over lynching Archer. 29) Matrim asks Archer voters why they're voting for Archer over Striker, as if it's a belief in a bus of Araris, Striker makes much more sense as the busser. 30) Bort argues Archer was twisting everything he said. 31) Matrim notes in response to Stick questioning v!Orlok that Orlok's retraction took the Araris/Stick trains from tied to Araris leading. 32) Stick raises possibility of Orlok retracting on Stick as bussing Araris. 33) TJ agrees with Stick that Orlok retracting could be bussing. Places Bort and maybe JNV as villagers, ?? Thaid, TUN, Matrim, Stick, Orlok in paranoia tier, Archer, Striker, Xino as evil. 34) Matrim challenges Stick on suspicion of Orlok, says speculation is of an accidental, not planned bus, with Striker not having room to retract. 35) TJ says if anyone moves to Striker, he'll move with them. Overall summary of C2: Votes split between TJ, Archer, Striker. Archer/TJ very opposed. C2 notes/thoughts: Interactions before Aman had read C1 with Matrim feel very natural - so decreasing the likelihood of e/e Aman/Matrim. TJ's questioning of the clearing of Stick is odd - reading the end of C1 the Araris train was instigated by Stick, and her posts read as very natural. #15 Matrim is indirectly pushing e!TJ through arguing Thaidakar was distancing from TJ. Possible distancing himself from TJ, but I think this is unlikely. Suspicion of TJ in this manner reduces my credence in a potential e/e Matrim/TJ world. Consequence of this is a further reduction in likelihood of Matrim being evil - if not e/e with Aman or TJ, then not elim in a 2v2 world (allowing us to reduce the overall likelihood of e!Matrim). Matrim's vote on TJ for Stick vote reasonable, further reduces e/e Matrim/TJ. Continued friendly Matrim/Bort interactions. Not sure how Matrim progresses from #15 - distancing TJ/Thaidakar to #20 v/e Thaidakar #22 - dislike reasoning for leaving vote on Stick. Mild v! from giving reason bluntly. Can empathise with reason for not voting on Araris - felt that way myself about TJ. #27 is odd. Fundamentally two of Bort's three elim reads are on players with very little to analyse. Increases my assessed probability of Bort/Aman distancing. #33 from TJ notable for Bort being his only firm v!read. Derived solely from e!Archer belief? C2 conclusions: Matrim - unlikely e/e with Aman or TJ. Nothing major to swing my read in either direction. Interaction with Bort. TJ - Moderately strong village feel from how TJ is making his arguments. Very much do not like conclusions - v!read of Bort in #33 is notable, as is suspicion of Archer. Aman - strongly dislike not reading C1. Possible as a genuine style change, but very, very off in a cycle in which an eliminator was just lynched. Mildly increased suspicion of Bort/Aman distancing. Cycle Three: 1) Stick suggests that Archer was a weird kill, as he was up for the lynch until the end of the cycle. Believes an elim therefore had to have submitted the kill in the last two minutes of the cycle. Notes Archer had said Orlok would vote with him on Striker in group PM. 2) Matrim relaxes v!Orlok read on Stick's argument. Is firm on v!Stick. Wants to lynch from Xino, Bort, TJ, Orlok. 3) Stick notes Bort and TJ both also online at the end of the cycle. Asks why people are v! reading JNV 4) Matrim suggests lynching through Bort, TJ, Orlok given online at end of cycle. Is tone reading JNV. 5) Stick votes on Orlok, believing Orlok the only one not in the group PM who knew Archer would be safe from the lynch. 6) Orlok votes on Bort 7) Matrim votes on Orlok, believes Bort case feels manufactured. 8) Aman asks for tl;dr on C2. Votes on Orlok for "what has already been said", and not responding to Stick's vote. Thinks v!Orlok would have PMd Aman, suggests Orlok did not to avoid Aman reading his alignment in an extended PM. 9) Aman doesn't think TJ is elim after Archer NK, was leaning town on him. Thought Archer was the elim of the pair, would have voted for him had he been able to get on. Thinks Kill might have been intended to frame TJ. 10) TJ thinks Archer's kill was to show more green on Araris' train. Asks Matrim why he dismisses e!Stick so easily. Asks Stick what the advantage is for Orlok of killing Archer, suggests Matrim or Stick have higher motive to do so. Thinks Matrim's post voting on Orlok feels like a defence of Bort. Votes on Matrim. 11) Aman says he might be misremembering C1, but on first read it didn't feel like a bus. Had forgotten Orlok's retraction on Stick. Thinks vote on Bort felt pre-planned. Stick and Matrim voting on Orlok felt good because it validated his feelings on Orlok. Concerned about Mat's post reading as a defence of Bort, as not town-reading Bort beyond suspicion of Orlok. Is concerned no one hs defended Orlok except TJ, suggests Orlok/TJ e/e. 12) Stick notes TJ was suspicious of Orlok in C2 but is now backing out of it. 13) Bort votes on Orlok. 14) Xinoehp votes on TJ, claims village elder. 15) TJ says backing out on Orok because of three back to back votes on Orlok, two from players he suspects. Says his own read progression has been flip-flopping all game. Asks Xinoehp why he suspects TJ. 16) Matrim wasn't dismissing e!Stick, is paranoid of her. Is trying to work out the end of D1. Doesn't think e!Stick works without e!Orlok or vice versa, but Orlok/Stick not e/e based on this turn. Doesn't like Bort's vote on Orlok, thinks Bort misrepresented what Orlok said. Getting a bad gut from Aman. Retracts from Orlok, leaning Aman, Bort or TJ. 17) TJ asks Stick why her argument why she wouldn't kill Archer doesn't apply to Orlok. 18) Aman is happy to vote for either Orlok or Bort, is leaning town on Matrim and TJ. Asks Orlok, Bort, TJ, Xino who they suspect other than who they're voting for. 19) Stick retracts Orlok, moves to Bort. 20) Stick retracts Bort, moves to Orlok. 21) Aman reads Stick and Matrim as top tier of trust, JNV, Xino, TJ below, Orlok, Bort lowest. Doesn't believe Araris was bussed, so won't doubt Stick/Matrim until LyLo. JNV, Xino, TJ town for microreads. Is trying to figure out which of Orlok/Bort is elim. Suggests possible e/e. 22) Bort also suspicious of Thaidakar, JNV, or Xino, or Aman or TUN. 23) Aman asks Bort to explain his reads on JNV and Xino. 24) Matrim moves his vote to Bort. 25) Aman asks Matrim for a tiered readslist. 26) Matrim reads Thaid/JNV as top trusts, Stick next, then Xino/TJ, then Aman, then Orlok/Bort. 27) TJ would vote for Bort or Xino next after Matrim. 28) Matrim considering Aman/Xino, would switch there if anyone else would. 29) Stick 90% certain the elims have to be Bort/TUN, retracts on Orlok, votes on Bort. If fourth, TJ. 30) Matrim retracts on Bort, votes on Aman. 31) TJ asks Matrim why Aman, and what the case on him is. 32) Matrim presents case on Aman. Gut, solving approach feels like Hyena, doesn't like how he's pushing Bort and Orlok, or how opinions manifested. Feels Aman's progression on TJ in their PM is odd. Thinks Archer kill explicable if submitted at the beginning not the end of the cycle. Aman assuming a 3 elim team. Ultimately gut. 33) TJ retracts on Matrim, votes on Xino. Wants to lynch Xino over Bort, but Bort over Orlok. 34) Matrim thinks Xino the next step if Aman flips elim. C3 thoughts/notes: Dislike Matrim's level of conviction in Stick's hypothesis of the Archer kill being placed last minute. TJ/Bort were both under pressure from Archer C2 - last minute kill not the only reachable conclusion. #9 Hackles raised by Aman suggesting he'd have voted on NK target. Reads as saying something sus for v!cred, knowing it would be seen as suspicious. No explanation as to why he'd have voted for Archer over Striker. To vote Archer over Striker, town reading TJ suggests Aman did think C1 was a bus - yet in C2#11, Aman says he'd be suspicious of anyone arguing that. Aman didn't post after that in C2 - so where in C2 did he reevaluate this view? Strong suspicion that this post contains a view formed after Archer's death for cred. #11, vote on Bort was preplanned - I'd agreed with Archer before the end of C2 that he'd vote with me on Bort, and I wanted to articulate my thoughts. Didn't respond to Stick's vote because I was trying to evaluate it - I had Stick and Matrim firmly in my village core, yet Stick's argument was both bizarre, and difficult to respond to beyond telling her to consider other possibilities. #15 mild village from acknowledging his own read progression inconsistencies. #21 Reinforces my suspicion of Aman re #9, suggesting he'd have voted on Archer had he been around D2. If he is (again) convinced Araris wasn't bussed, why would he have voted for Archer? Whole thing feels deeply out of line with genuine thought process. C3 conclusions: Aman - strong e!Aman. Predominately driven by him stating he would have voted on Archer, which feels fabricated. It's completely out of line with his stated views (both before and after) on the Araris lynch not being a bus, doesn't appear to have had time to be developed (no Aman posts between Araris lynch not being a bus and Archer's death), and firm view that the post was designed to get village cred for feeling suspicious. Matrim - Dislike Matrim's early C3, but very much like his progression on Aman, and reevaluation of e!Orlok. Still committed to v!Matrim. TJ - Less to evaluate. Less likely e/e with Aman from retraction on Matrim after he states Aman case? I'd intended to get through C4 and C5 tonight as well, and will do so before the end of the cycle, but I've been at this now for 6 hours, and it's 5am, so will leave it here and resume tomorrow. I haven't read much at all of either cycle bar the writeups. With the warning that that might cause me to reevaluate, my present view is firmly: Matrim TJ Aman It would take a lot to shake me from v!Matrim at this point, and a very good explanation from Aman to have me prefer TJ as today's lynch. I think it's moderately more likely that we have one veteran eliminator - Aman, than this being Aman/TJ - but would vote TJ without hesitation over Matrim if it were the three of us.

Posting to blatantly filter dodge, and to offer sincere, and self-loathing apologies at my inactivity. There’s a lot going on for me at the moment, and I thought I had a handle on it, but don’t. I’m going to try to get back into this today, before rollover, but if not then will just continue trying. I’m going to take another break from games after this, until my life is in different place.

I’ll sign up as Locke.

I see the pain is still fresh... My own views on it might not be known anymore, but given I plan to rerun it, for the record, I agree with Kas on the above 100%. They are the path of least resistance for each faction to propose lynching without causing inter-factional friction, which needs balancing, but which was the joke I was trying to make! (Spitballing, but possibly by giving them a kill each time they lose a player, to change the risk calculus of going after them vs a faction that can strike back?)

Our obvious first step is to work out who the Discovery faction are. They're clearly the greatest threat, irrespective of whether we're Moderation, Heritage or Glory, with near perfect information on the game-state - why wouldn't we want them lynched?

Going to open voting on Bort. Thinking further on this, I still cannot see how this comes from a village mindset. As I've set out before, it both heavily minimises information both from D1 and from the fang. This is taking a very extreme view from what I said. Ok, so here's my thoughts... C1, it's likely a villager will by lynched, unless someone really screws up and reveals themselves, just by weight of numbers. There are more of us than there are of them. If we activate the Fang today, we guarantee ourselves at least one elim down, even if we do mislynch a villager during the exe. That is, after all, the point of the game, so why not use the mechanic we have to help with that before we lose the chance to? I think for now, a poke vote on Aman. @Amanuensis? This isn't actually what I think Bort was arguing for in his first post - Bort is arguing for no lynch at all. I see this as spin of Bort's original position. Switch to an easy mislynch target, without justification. I think this is an attempt to provoke a mislynch on one of the Araris voters. I don't buy his explanation here: I'm pretty sure that bus was a term for throwing teammates under the bus back when Bort and I played SE many years ago - as such, I think this is manufactured confusion. I just don't see how a first assessment of the idea comes from a village mindset.

If the vote count is 3:3 Archer-Striker, I’ll vote Striker.

I would prefer to stay on Bort, whose posts I’m working through as part of my next long-post. I maintain Archer, Stick, Matrim, Thaidakar as my cleared village pool. I’m trying to work out my read on TJ. If I am to move, it’ll be to one of TJ and Striker, although I’m more open to forming a new view on TJ, as any argument for Striker for me is the same one I ran through yesterday, and I don’t know why I’d now come to a differing conclusion.

I haven’t had time to address all I want to, and am working on a longer post, but just want to jump in on this. My retraction on you had nothing to do with your elder claim, Stick. I village read you from your post, tonally, and from what you were doing towards the end of the cycle. I did believe your claim, because I thought I’d found you claiming it in an earlier post, and you confirmed it in a PM, but you being an elder had nothing to do with my reading you as village, which was why I retracted from you.

Genuinely don’t believe this level of misunderstanding the rules is possible to fake. Thaidakar looks pretty firmly village from this, to me.