Young Bard

...OK, it's now the morningafternoon, and I've had sleep. So this post should make more sense. I'll try and decipher that mess I posted yesterday, and place a vote. But first, a vote tally (because someone asked for it, and I'm curious myself. Vote Tally: Winter (2): Magestar{1}, Jebus{1} Sart (0): Jondesu{1}, Lopen{1} Paranoid King (5): Sart{1}, Sami{1}, Jondesu{2}, Yitzi{1}, Bard{1} Jondesu (1): Arinian{1} Arinian (1): PK{1} Elith (1): Orlok{1} And a brief notes on my thoughts of each of the players who have been voted on here: Winter - I can confirm from my memory of LG22 and... MR15, IIRC, that Winter usually is generally a fairly chaotic player, so I don't view them as overly suspicious right now. Probably neutral, or even slightly village, is my gut read at the moment. Regarding the Truthless comment - I don't think the plan was ever likely to work from a villager perspective, but it makes no sense from an eliminator or Truthless perspective either, so I buy that Winter was aiming to do what she said she was trying to do. Sart - I really haven't seen him post enough to judge either way. He's made 2 posts over three Cycles, both of which are a few lines or less in length. Probably neutral to me, right now, more through his inactivity than anything else. His defence of his vote on Arin seems well reasoned - I'm trying to remember if in the past he's been inactive because they don't often say anything despite being active in the game, or whether they tend to not follow the game very well, which is something I should know, but can't remember. PK - I'm fine with PK being lynched, which it looks like he's going to. The not undoing his vote on Flash is only mildly suspicious to me, at best, but his PM with Elith and what happened there is really making me doubt him - it feels like he was deliberately trying to create false information to confuse the village by the sounds of things. Jondesu - Arin, I really feel like this vote came out of nowhere - I'm tempted to vote on you until you provide further analysis, but it's nearly the end of the cycle, so next cycle will probably be a better time to bring that up. I'm not really suspicious of Jon at all at this point in time. And I'd also agree with Sart's post earlier this cycle that Arin's post could be suspicous. With less than an hour in the cycle, now might not be the time, but I will definitely want to dig deeper into this next cycle. Arin - See my previous post. Although, PK's reasoning for voting on Arin seem weird. (Well, he basically seems to be indicating that Arin's misrepresenting the case for PK being lynched, and is saying it in a roundabout/weird way, I suppose.) I intend to look up Arin's posts in C1 and C2 for analysis at the beginning of the next cycle. Elith - I agree with Orlok here that if PK is a villager, then Elith could be an Eliminator, particularly since there does seem to be a bit of a gap between what PK and Elith said happened in that PM, so I think I am fairly suspicious of Elith right now. That said, I highly doubt Elith and Orlok are both Elims, and I'm kind of getting a weird Elim gut read from Orlok this game. However, I'm not going to vote on Orlok yet because 1) he's generating a fair amount of discussion, and I don't want to stifle that, and 2) I'm really worried that my Elim read is more paranoia than any kind of reasonable suspicion. And I haven't even begun to go through the last cycle in a coherent manner. I intend to do that now, but it probably won't be up until after rollover. Nevermind.

Bleh. I knew time would be an issue with this and RL stuff. I still haven't read most of yesterdays posts, let alone todays - I intend to read over yesterdays posts before I go to bed, mull some things over when I go to bed, detailing my suspicions, and then post in the morning. Sorry all. I'll try and do something tonight though, so you don't just get this message (meaning at the time of writing this I intend to post a quick summary of probably incomprehensible thoughts after I read through that I can decipher in a more readable - and evidenced - fashion for you all in the morning. Right. So Stick isn't an Eliminator. Darn. At least that's something that makes me slightly less guilty- it probably means that my absence didn't cost us anything when I was away yesterday, as I probably would have voted for them anyway, as my top suspicion from Day 1. Just typing a splurge as I read through Day 2 and whats happened so far in Day 3: Elith - EDIT (c. 1:40 am): Elith seems slightly elim to me through trying to cast suspicion on an edited post by Orlok, when the post was apparently only edited for typos. Probably worth me slapping a vote on him, and I might in the morning, unless I see something better through the readthrough, or if I change my mind with my more sensible morning self. I just don't trust my tired 1:30 am self to have a fair judgement of elim-ish behaviour, so I won't vote for him tonight. I probably will in the morning. It's really strange. Len's post, when I try to objectively analyse it, feels villagery, but my gut read is Eliminatory. I'm trying to work out which I trust more. On the one hand, I have a terrible gut read, so I don't know why I still trust it in any way, and I may have tunnelled on Len for several of the games we played together (), but on the other hand, I wonder if the objective analysis being villagery is due to it being manufactured with the intent of being villagery, while Len is really an Elim. (If we're playing the 'reference the old SE games' game, I'll draw your attention to LG24 - where Aman was an Eliminator who's posts were aimed at being so squeaky clean in order to get everyone to trust him - successfully - before he killed 5 people in one night in a special attack. As a fellow Eliminator that game - I was nearly convinced he was a villager. ) Orlok - I don't understand where my vote count went wrong - I built mine on top of Flash's, assuming theirs was correct - did I do something stupid like missing a page, or did Flash? (This is mostly rhetorical, by the way - I don't expect you to answer this. It's probably something I'll chase down to verify in the morning, because I don't understand where the error is.) I'm trying to work out which alignment would have more to gain by correcting me. I honestly can't tell. I'm trying to work out whether I'm just being really paranoid of you right now, because part of me feels like I should trust you, and part of me really doesn't. Gah. At this point, I feel like my sleepy brain is just casting paranoia on every post I read right now. This is what happens when you try to squeeze in SE at 12:30 in the morning... I'll try going onwards - I'm not sure why - I might do a re-read again in the morning anyway pending time, because I'm not sure how useful this current read is right now. Ecth's post seems village to me, strangely. They seem... unconcerned in a casual way by their near-lynch, which doesn't feel forced to me. You know, for a 'quick summary', this is turning into something that looks more akin to a stream-of-consciousness post. And all you lucky folks get to read it. Anyhow... Rae - good point. I hadn't considered that. Still, apparently, my initial distribution guesses were flawed, so I'll post a fresh distribution analysis in the morning after I verify Orlok's stats. (Quick note that I didn't note in Orlok's post, and I'm not going to, because this post is going to be confusing enough without me bouncing back and forth up and down the post as I think of things: Adjusted impressions of the alignment of the various role distributions if Orlok's stats are correct would be that the Eliminators would have a Dustbringer, but that's a guess, and I might change my mind in the morning.) Eternum - I think I was one of the people who said I was suspicious of you... I'm trying to remember why I was now... (Loads a third tab to look at the Day 1 thread so as not to lose my place in the Day 2 thread and this post here...) Ah, yeah, that's right - you seemed to be too... casual about throwing suspicions around, and hopping on to agree with other people who were suspicious without adding to the discussion. I'm trying to get to bed before 1:30 at the latest (it's 12:50 now), so I'm not going to go hunting for the way you voted tonight for how you voted across the day, but either not voting after voicing suspicions, or doing the opposite and voting several times throughout the cycle, particularly without heavy evidence behind it, would also make me more suspicious. I think you were one of the two, but I can't remember which (I saw both in the Day 1 thread, which made me slightly suspicious of multiple people - something I meant to talk about yesterday and then didn't. :/ ) Jebus - I have a slight village read of Jebus - I got a really village read from him when he asked how to colour text on the Shard in the Discord Chat towards the end of Day 1 (which, I know stuff on the Discord Chat isn't meant to influence the game, but that's my fault, not Jebus's, for reading more into it than I should. Sorry.) To me, that feels like something that Jebus would ask his Elim buddies if he had them, and the fact that he didn't makes me trust him. On the other hand, if Jebus turns out to be evil, then I'm sure that at least one of Rae, Lopen, or Orlok would be as well, in order to suggest this trick to him for the exact reason of making people think he's village. Anyway, I think I was going somewhere with this. Oh yeah. So his post sounds villagery to me, but I'm 80% sure that's just confirmation bias. EDIT: (Yeah, yeah, I know I said I wouldn't go back and edit paragraphs I've already written, to reduce confusion. Or have I said that yet? Hence the confusion I'm talking about. Anyway, I think it's well and truly established that 1:00 me has no consistency whatsoever. Anyway.) I actually think the "Do the Skybreakers know who the other Skybreakers are" line, which I must have somehow missed in the first post, feels like it takes the exact thing that made me think it's village and takes it too far, because that line feels like it's *trying* to achieve that. So... I'm back to neutral on him. And I think one of Rae, Lopen or Orlok are evil, which I might have guessed any way for balance reasons, but oh well. (maybe Len or Mage as well, now I think about it - how active has Len been in games while I've been away, anyone? (Again, mostly rhetorical. I'll probably have forgotten I wrote this in the morning anyway. (Oh, look, nested parentheses (Are you enjoying being inside my head when I post my unfiltered thoughts? )))) (Is that the right number of closing parentheses? (Yeah.)) *sigh* I'm not going to be going to bed by 1:30, am I? I've done less than a page so far. I might try and move along quicker from here on out. (Which I had been intending to do all along, so I could just be lying to myself - and continue commenting nearly every post.) Sami - meh. Too little content to tell. I'd prefer if you post more, Sami. Then again, I'm not one to talk, seeing as I just took I hiatus in the middle of a QF, so... :/ DA - (goes back and rereads Jebus's post - not going my new thoughts on that here.) Hmmm... You apparently had *exactly* the same thought process as I did just there. Interesting. So, because of that, I feel like I should trust you. But I don't. Of course I don't. Because my brain is making me paranoid of everything. It seems to be a much more logical post from you than I'm used to. However, I think that should be encouraged, so I'm going to wave away my paranoia on this for now, and keep going, and put you roughly neutral on the list from most elimmy to most villagery. DA (again) - Hmmm... this post seems... strange. I'm probably going to read through this in the morning with my head in my hand at the terribleness of all this analysis, so I'll tag this post for my sensible, awake me to see and think about then. (If people are confused where I'm up to, this should also place where my comments are up to in the thread. Yeah, let's just say I'm doing that.) Jon - I'd found that weird too, but I feel that Eliminator!PK would have removed the vote after... someone, maybe you, called him out on it Day 1, but he didn't. Strangely, I'm not thinking Truthless, either - I'm thinking right now that he's just a villager that was bored, didn't think at the time that Flash was going to have a serious chance of getting lynched, and when there was he was offline, and didn't really have anyone better to vote for. Winter - I feel like it's an Elim 101 strategy to start PM's and be friendly, to recieve claims and to seem like a villager to everyone else. (Thinks about how I intended to start a PM with *everybody* Cycle 1, before I ran out of time after getting to about 4 people, and how elim-ish I myself would have found that... moving on...) Then again, being friendly could just be being friendly. (*tries furiously in a IKYK-like loop to think about whether I'm being paranoid of Orlok, or whether I'm overcompensating for my paranoia of Orlok, or whether I'm overcompensating for my over-compensation of my paranoia of Orlok, or whether... nevermind. I think you get the picture. I have no clue about Orlok's alignment.*) Also, you don't need to worry about acting stupid, Winter - I may or may not be taking crown prize for that this game with this post. We'll see. Also, it's 1:30, and I've barely gotten through a page. Great. Let's see if I can make 2:15... (Probably not. But don't break this dream for me...) Stick - I was the person who PM'ed Elith - see my Grand super Evil Happy and Cheerful Plan to PM everyone and see which PM's got some sort of response, and the fact that Elith is first on the list meant he got one when I tried to do that. But, I can't PM you now, since... you're dead. Sorry. Also, why you seemed suspicious? I *just* closed the Day 1 tab - I'll open that for a living person for me to talk about why I'm suspicious, but for a dead person, that can probably wait until the morning. Sorry. (And by 'the morning', that means: probably never, in this case.) EDIT: Gah. I just realized you meant the person who said Orlok had changed their post. To clarify, that wasn't me. All I did was start up a post saying, roughly. "Hey Elithanathile... Huh. Your name is really long and confusing. Have you got a nickname? I wouldn't know - I've been away a while." To date, he hasn't responded to the PM, though he did clarify that Elith or... something else, I can't remember, would be an acceptable nickname. Wilson - Rewriting my post on Elith up top. Dunno what Elith thought he saw - maybe it was an honest mistake, maybe it was an attempt at casting suspicion in an unverifiable way. I'd ask him to clarify, but... I'm sure he's probably already done so after other people asked him. The joys of being late to the party. And my mother just walked in and was saying "What the hell are you still doing up?" Me: "Uhhh... Good question. I'm not quite sure." Them: "*rolls eyes*" (Why did I just put that in speech marks? That's silly. Anyway. I might be going to bed without finishing this in a couple minutes. Or I might not. I'll see. On the one hand, that might be a relief for all of you reading this...) Hmmm... more sus of Jebus now. (Actually skipping over things faster now...) Stink - your post makes sense. I agree. Arinian seems to be disagreeing for the sake of diagreeing rather than trying to promote conversation or to make a point, if that makes sense. Again, might be my really tired, addled brain speaking. Weak Elim read. If they are, then that would make Len and Ecth slightly more likely to be villagers. Stick - did Elith mention a PM contact??? Huh. I *just* reread that post, and I didn't remember anything about that. Hmmm... it does. I don't know how I missed that. (Yes I do. It's because I'm tired and not thinking properly... Oh well.) I'm not rewriting Elith's post again - I'm assuming I'll here more about this going on, so I'll say I'm suspicious of this PM contact, whoever they turn out to be. Which is probably already obvious. Anyway. Even though it's Jebus's first game, I still think Jebus would know that Elims have a Doc together - I'm pretty sure he asked me a question similar to that when he was reading through the SE rules and General Etiquette. I think it makes more sense as a trick gone to far. But... I could be tunnelling. At this point, I'm not sure. I'm interested in seeing what others think. (If anybody is actually insane enough to read this. Which they probably aren't. I'll probably do a TL;DR, in 'the morning'. Meaning I probably won't, again. Oh well.) The conversation on Ecth seemed to have died down before Yitzi brought it up again. A villager, trying to continue with their reads, or an Elim, trying to flog the dead horse? Decisions, decisions... Eh, I'll say they're very weakly village-y to me. But that's subject to change. Also, on page 15. Finally. The conversation turning back on Ecth seems to have stifled other conversations elsewhere, with Yitzi and Stick going back there in quick succession. If Yitzi's an Elim, then someone else under suspicion (Elith, possibly?) could be as well. Lopen - hadn't we established it was Rae that had sent those PM's, hence why they were under suspicion Day 1? Mega - I don't know whether you continue to read games after your death, so you might not see this - I could summon you, I suppose, but I'm not sure it's worth the effort - but, I think it's better in SE if you don't delete posts, even if you want to add new content to it, in order to prevent rephrasings - a similar issue to what Wilson mentioned before. Stick - I take it Sebas is Elith, but who's Silver? (Again, rhetorical. I'm looking it up now, and it's... Roadwalker. Hmmm... Interesting. Roadwalker was one of those that seemed to tunnel on Flash based on the opening RP, which was just weird, frankly. But, that's little more than a weak read for me. Still, worth looking into in the morning. (I voted on Flash, but it was mainly because of his responses afterwards, and because the other alternative was Ecth, who I was less suspicious of.) Also, my page just froze for a second there, and I was *really* worried that the page would crash, and I'd lose my work. (*copies work so far into a OneNote Doc, to confuse myself in 6 months when I find it.*) Lopen - "He's going back and forth a lot, like he doesn't want to have a stance that could hurt him. It's like, he's not really saying anything here. Maybe he just hasn't had the time to form a lot of opinions, but I don't like the phrasing or the content." (*looks back up my post, cringes*) Sorry about... this ^ by the way. I did intend to have a more cohesive post, (and still do), but... maybe a more unfiltered post can help people get reads or something? Never mind. To be honest, this is partly for me, to be able to get something down amidst IRL, and not go over endless revisions and nitpicks and ending up not posting anything, and just to catch up. The trick, for me, is trying to find the balance between 'splurge', which this will be a great example of, and endless nitpicking. Anyway, about the actual contents: I think I trust Lopen. But... I generally get a gut trust read on Lopen, so that's not saying much. Rae - you go to all of that trouble putting together an ISO of Stick's posts, making me sure you were leading up to something. (I mean, you post a line saying "I think such and such a standpoint, or lack thereof seems suspicious", but I thought that you were leading up to a more meaty paragraph suggesting Stick be lynched or something, but you don't even vote for them. So, I'm suspicious of that? You seem to be trying to hedge to make people suspicious of Stick without coming out strongly yourself. So, I'll say I have a moderate suspicion of you right now. In fact, you're my best guess at a Truthless right now, to be honest - I don't think anyone else has been posting content that's still alive that I could be consistently saying would be suspicious, which I think I can about you. But... I'm not sure. At this point, though, I'd be willing to risk a Rae lynch, depending on how Elith responds to the "Orlok edited his post" claims. Orlok - I would really like to respond to many of these, but I don't have great context for many of the things you're responding to, so I'll respond to mine first, and see what else jumps out at me. Regarding my suspicion of Stick, it's similar reasons to Rae - I found an inconsistency between their suspicions from post to post, a shying away from voting, on top of a general bad gut read. I would go into further detail (and I might, if the situation warrants it), but with Stick now being dead, I'd prefer to go on with analysing players who aren't yet dead. (This is just due to my poor timeliness though, so... sorry I didn't get to this last cycle.) In my second post you referenced: My analysis, to the best of my knowledge, was correct. I don't understand at what point my analysis was incorrect, and intend to discover that in the morning (my leading guess is that Flash skipped a page when gathering up his vote tally, because I don't think I did, and it's the only point where the tally I was basing my analysis off could have gone wrong, I think.) I'm sorry I caused confusion with that post (though that seems to have been sorted out fairly quickly, luckily.) OK, other thoughts - you vote on PK, and yet you seem much more suspicious of Elith throughout your post - it makes me wonder whether you're Elim buddies (although... if you were Elim buddies, it would make no sense for Elith to have told that lie in the first place, I suppose, so... I don't know. I still am getting a weak Elim gut vibe from parts of your post that I'm trying to place. Also, I can confirm I was the player who PM'ed Elith and asked him what an abbreviation of his name could be, though that fact is likely irrelevant now that Stick is dead. However, there was no correspondence about your post, or basically any game-relevant content, in that PM (to date, Elith hasn't responded in the PM chain. My introduction was only about 3 lines long.) I'm assuming either someone else PM'ed Elith, or they made up the "PM partner" who raised the point about Orlok's post. Orlok pt. 2 - (starting a new paragraph because the old one was looking too much like a wall of text) - I've mentioned it above, but I find Jebus's post troubling to. I know they've read the rules and Etiquette guidelines, and I think the fact that the Elims have a doc seems fairly obvious, and makes me wonder the previous time they asked a question in the Discord Chat and this might have been an attempt to get people to think they were a villager for not asking game questions to their Eliminator buddies. I mentioned above that I thought if Jebus was an Elim, I think an experienced player probably is too, now I'm thinking either both of you are Elims or neither of you are. I'm putting both of you on a moderate suspicion ranking. PK - Hmmm... I think you've already posted before on this cycle after people were wondering about who Elith's contact was, IIRC. Why did you not claim earlier? Also, Elith's post seemed to suggest you were much more suspicious of Orlok than you seem to suggest. That could be lost in translation, but it's a stretch. Moderate to strong suspicion on both of you, I think. Unless you or Elith are Truthless. I'm definitely going to go back and read both of your posts in the morning. Elith - Before, my gut was saying you were Eliminator. Now my analysis is saying you're an Eliminator, through your almost pre-empting of the criticism of the vote from Stick, and my gut is saying you're neutral. So, I don't know. I'm not suspicious of Stink right now, though. Also, it's now past 3AM. >> I didn't think I'd be going this long. Still, nearly done... If I continue on at this rate, I'll actually be able to go to bed before I get up in the morning. Rae - "Stick: Your ISO makes it seem like you're tunnelling" Rae: Here's another ISO Me: *snickers* - OK, I kind of feel similarly about this than I did your previous ISO. At least you voted and had a summation this time, which just feels better, so I'd say it's slightly less suspicious as an Elim/Truthless thing than the last one, but only slightly. If there's a Truthless (and I say if, because I'm thinking Ecth might have chosen not to include one just to see how we react), then I think Rae is my best bet right now. Final page! Yay! (I'm not going to get to today's posts - that can be done in the morning.) Lopen - Hmmm... Good point about Sart. It's the only post he made C2, and I don't *remember* any posts from him C1 either. They're usually quiet, but the one post he did make does seem to be about something strangely distant from where all the discussion is, as though they're trying to turn discussion away from fellow Eliminators. I'd say I have a weak to moderate suspicion of Sart, particularly if Lopen is village. Yay! Final page is short, and I get to go to bed. Night all. Oh, one final thing to remind myself that I *must* talk about in the morning: Why on earth did they murder Drake and Megasif? They seem fairly random to me... Most of it is probably trying to avoid the Lightweavers, but nevertheless, I thought they'd go for more active players or something. I'm guessing the Elims were probably trying to find people with roles, which makes me think that the Elims don't yet know who the people with roles are. I.e. if you have a vote manip role, and you claimed already, first, shame on you for claiming in the first 2 cycles , and second, you can probably be relatively sure that the person you claimed to is also a villager, or a Truthless, by the fact that you're not dead. Which... you probably could have worked out for yourself anyway, but those are the pearls of wisdom my 3:30 brain has to offer. I might get back onto this in the morning. Night all (again).

Vote Tally (rearranged from before) (assuming Flash's is correct at the time he posted it): Ecth (5) stink, roadrunner, megasif, stick, flash Flash (5) PK, Eternum, Arranae, Orlok, Bard Stick (2) Arinian, Drake Jondesu (1) Elenion Megasif (1) Jondesu Roadwalker(1) Elithanathile Rae (1) Winter And after the Stonewards and Dustbringers: Vote Count (changes bolded/strikethroughed): >Ecth (4): Megasif, Roadwalker, Stick, Winter , Megasif, Stink >Flash (4): Orlok, PK, Eternum, Bard, Arraenae >Stick (3): Arinian, Drake, Flash >Stink (2): Jondesu, Elithanathile, Arinian, Drake >Jondesu (1): Elenion >Megasif (0): Jondesu >Roadwalker(0): Elithanathile >Rae(0): Winter Stoneward actions: Winter: Rae ---> Ecth (could be villager or an elim - personally didn't find Ecth suspicious, but by the looks of things, plenty of other villagers did) Jondesu: Megasif ---> Stink (I think they might have been following my instructions here, because Stink was never really seriously up for the lynch, and Mega had one vote on them) Elithanathile: Roadwalker ---> Stink (Ditto to above) Dustbringer actions: Megasif: Ecth Stink: Ecth Arraenae: Flash Arinian: Stink Drake: Stink 3 Stonewards and 5 Dustbringers. That's a lot more than I was expecting. If I were to guess at distributions, I'd say that the Skybreakers probably have possibly 1 Dustbringer, and then another role that's either a Dustbringer or a Stoneward. I don't think El would give an Elsecaller role to an Elim - if they were suspicious enough to be lynched, then theres no point in delaying the inevitable by a cycle - it only slows down the inevitable. There's also no point to them having a Lightweaver, since there are no vig kill roles. That's it for now - I'm off to an RL event, I'll be on tonight to defend my vote swaps and discuss the previous cycle, and my reads on it in greater depth.

Vote Tally (assuming Flash's is correct at the time he posted it): Jondesu (1) Elenion Flash (4) PK, Eternum, Arranae, Orlok Megasif (1) Jondesu Stick (3) Arinian, Drake, Bard Ecth (5) stink, roadrunner, megasif, stick, flash Roadwalker(1) Elithanathile Rae (1) Winter There. Ecth is getting lynched with 5 minutes in the Cycle, and the only other reasonable lynch candidate is Flash. I found some of his posts to be an Eliminator gut read, but I was more suspicious of Ecth. (This is where it would be useful to know how many vote manips there are as well - trying to work out whether I should switch now). Ah, nevermind. Stick, Flash. I just don't understand the lynch on Ecth - it feels more like a way of shifting the lynch onto an easy player by the feel of things than anything else. Vote Tally (assuming Flash's is correct at the time he posted it): Jondesu (1) Elenion Flash (5) PK, Eternum, Arranae, Orlok, Bard Megasif (1) Jondesu Stick (2) Arinian, Drake Ecth (5) stink, roadrunner, megasif, stick, flash Roadwalker(1) Elithanathile Rae (1) Winter

...I'm putting a pin in this to remind myself to respond to this later, because I probably won't get to it before rollover. In short, there are meta reasons why I disagree with this vote - If Stink is actually doing analysis in games, thats something that should be encourage, not discouraged by lynching him. Orlok and Lopen (I think it was Lopen - if it was someone else, I'm sorry - I can't remember off the top of my head, and I'm too lazy to go back and check.): I do think knowing how many Stonewards and Dustbringers we have is helpful - it allows us to guess the balance of the game better - whether the elims have a smaller team with more abilities, or a larger team with less, the alignment of the Stonewards/Dustbringers in the game (which is practically impossible to guess Cycle 1, but you can get a sense of it over a few cycles.) Finally, my argument was intended to generate discussion, and to act as a means for me to try and get reads on the various players by the way they responded and the reasons they gave for being for/against it. I really don't find Ecth suspicious at all, really. Flash, I don't know his playstyle at all, but he seems slightly Elim-ish to me. My most suspicious read, however, especially out of the candidates on the board, is Stick. It's... mostly gut, although there are some things that particularly struck me as off that I'd go into depth if it weren't right at the end of the cycle (sorry :/ - I had an IRL event, and wasn't able to get on until this point, so this if my first opportunity to respond to all the things that have happened since I went to bed yesterday) Actually, I'm kind of worried that Stick is a Truthless, but I think a Day 1 lynch of some kind would be useful, because I think it will net us some information regardless of alignment. (Also, I said I was going to vote last night - I didn't, I'm sorry - I had an IRL thing, and then I had second thoughts about voting on Stick last night, so I went to bed.) After this, I'm going to go and do a vote count, and see if I can get an accurate one up by the end of the cycle (probably not, but I can try). Tonight, I'll do a much more in depth analysis of Stick's and Flash's posts, as they appear to be the runner ups of tonights lynch, give a general rundown of suspicions, hopefully with a piece of evidence or two for each to give something better to respond to than a 'gut read', hopefully get an RP up, and try and make a guess about El's balancing based on how many Stonewards and Dustbringers we know there to be.

Melonin looked around, suddenly realizing that he had made a very, very bad choice in staying behind. One person tried to take charge, calling for pushups - Melonin moved away quickly from that person. Did he not just realize that someone had just died? (El - the writeup is unclear, but I get the sense that Hael's murder happened somewhere else, so Melonin isn't aware of it yet. Correct me if I'm wrong.) This wasn't the time for pushups! He sighed. "We're doing it all wrong." No-one heard him. No-one turned their heads, to listen to his words. How did the heroes do it, managing to effortlessly sway the crowds without even breaking a sweat? Melonin looked around, before speaking louder. "We're doing it wrong!" he said again. He didn't dare look around to see whether anyone else was taking notice - he felt that if he did that, he would probably break... whatever it was, right here, right now, that was making him speak, so he rushed on. "We're all here because we're Radiants, right? Or we might be, or something?" By Talenel's stinking breath, this was hard. "If we're Radiants, maybe we can do something to stop... this", and Melonin stopped to gesture at Brightness Kenara's body. "And perhaps even catch those that did it." He paused for a moment. "There's a very rare text, one of the very few surviving the Hierocracy, from before the fallen Radiants left. It talks about the different orders, and what they can do." (For all the devout Sanderfans out there, yes, I know there's no such text. This is just a way for me to give Melonin the information he needs. He's not lying - I'm just breaking canon briefly in order to get the information I want out.) "Ummm... There were the Stonewards, rumoured to have the skill and the power of Cohesion - if you think that might be you, then I think we need to know you exist, and that you're with us, without you claiming and perhaps being targeted next by the murderers. So, you should probably use your powers in a subtler way, let us know you're here in a way that doesn't influence anything, at least for now. If you could, say, make two peoples suspicions count as one when the suspicion doesn't change the result of whatever we decide to do, at least for today, that would be fantastic. Umm... who else was there?" "There were the Dustbringers, capable of Division and Abrasion - I think you should do something similar to the Stonewards - let us know you're among us so we can plan for it, but try not to influence what's going to happen - at least not on this early cycle, anyway." "There were others... Lightweavers, Elsecallers, but there powers were reported to be subtler, and I have nothing to say about them other than to wish them luck, and to ask them to please use their abilities wisely, and to the best that they are able. Lightweavers, in particular, your actions, while subtle, can only benefit us all no matter who you protect, so please make sure you always use your actions, regardless of everything else that happens. It can only help us." "There were others, but I, ummm, I can't quite remember them. So, I'll just say, make sure you try and do whatever you do well, whatever order you are." If it's not obvious already, I'm trying to do as much of my posts in RP as possible. Then again, I've said that before, and have failed miserably. If past records are anything to go by, I'll probably swap to analysis on posts once I actually have anything to go on, because RP'ing reasons why someone should be lynched is just hard. Secondly, I'm a villager, before anyone asks, though frankly I don't see the point in asking/answering, because I can't think of a reason, especially on Day 1, why people wouldn't claim village. Thirdly, the Truthless. I can't think of a way Melonin would know theres one among us, so I'll post about them here: We need to be wary for the Truthless, but not so wary that we allow ourselves to avoid lynches until the mafia have overtaken us. For that reason, I'm advocating that we still try to lynch someone every day, including Day 1, despite the Truthless, because even false lynches provide us information - who voted for them, who nearly got lynched but didn't due to a last minute voteswap, etc., is generally the best and most accurate way of catching Eliminators that I've found, at least for those people like me that have horrible gut reads. I'd love to hear all your comments on my advice, and why you agree/disagree, or just where you need more explanation or convincing. If my attempt at RP'ing recommendations was just confusing, here's a plain text version: Stonewards, Dustbringers: We need to know you exist, but claiming to somebody in particular is probably a bad idea at this stage. I recommend you do your manipulations in such a manner this cycle that is does not influence the result of the lynch, so we know you exist and can offer recommendations in thread without wasting our time. I'll do a vote tally shortly before the cycle ends and compare it with after so we know how many of both of you there are. Lightweavers: Just put in an action every cycle. It can't hurt, and is very likely to help the more actions you put in. Whatever you do, please don't go inactive. Reads: Nothing yet. I don't understand why PK, Roadrunner and Eternum are suspicious of Flash - to me, the Shardblade striking Kenara down faster than the eye could see was just a way of preventing us from finding a Skybreaker straight out. I think PK meant it as a joke, but I'm slightly suspicious of Roadrunner and Eternum. Roadrunner already has a vote on him - though I might swap my vote at the end of the cycle if he hasn't responded or if I don't see anything else I find suspicious, and with Eternum, I'm nowhere close enough to suspicious to knock him out on Day 1 of his first game, though. For now, I'm not going to vote - mainly because I've RP'ed already and I want to get this stuff out before I make another RP on Melonin voting, but I intend to vote before I go to bed tonight (so in the next 5-6 hours or so - it will be there before all the Americans get up tomorrow morning, anyway.) EDIT: Gah. I forgot the thing I was perhaps most excited to talk about - whether El is trolling us with secret roles and alignments. I have been getting weird vibes from this game, even when she said there weren't any secret roles/alignments in the game. I'd considered all the ways she could be trolling us with the Truthless - she could have multiple Truthless in the game, or none, and just watch how we react to a phantom threat. Strangely, I'm getting the same vibe from her swap from a "There are no secret roles/alignments" to a PAFO - my read on it right now is that she might be trying to make us all ridiculously paranoid in this game without good reason. Joe did something similar in his QF a while back - made everyone think there was *something* going on, when there really wasn't. Then again, there might be - I'm not saying we should rule out any options, just consider the possibility. So, my recommendation with El's PAFO is to be cautious, but not to the extent where it impairs your judgement, if possible.

... Next time, @Darkness Ascendant, I'm going to insist that I read the RP before I promise whether or not to respond to it. This was too much. Out of the corner of his eye, Melonin saw some sort of scuffle between 2 figures emerge (Stick, Megasif). Absolutely barbaric - this clearly wasn't the behaviour of some sort of hero. Still, between that and another squabble elsewhere on the courtyard (Stink, Mage)(could these people go 5 minutes without bickering and fighting?), it was the perfect opportunity for Melonin to make his escape. Melonin turned to sprint towards the exit, and nearly crashed into a man mumbling to himself. Short and stooped, with a cowl over their head, and had a voice with a strange timbre, to it, a kind of sombre gravitas which was nearly as soporific as the words themselves, which seemed to have a strange lack of any sort of rhyme or reason to them. (DA, if you don't like this description of your character, I can retcon/rewrite this part.) He seemed to be mumbling to himself. "Blinking lights. haha look at all the blinking lights." He kept going, and Melonin found himself listening in wonder. After a minute or two, the figure's mumblings seemed to come to a crescendo "I hate it. Someone end me." He paused there for a second, and Melonin used the opportunity to burst in. "That was incredible! The way in which you illuminate the meaningless of existence through your dialogue, using an absurdist structure. I love the way in which you used the random chaos of your language and fragmented train of thought in order to demonstrate the chaos and lack of order in the world. It's just..." Melonin stopped as the figure turned to look at him, fixing him with a strange expression that Melonin couldn't quite tell what it was. "Uhh... Sorry, I didn't mean to interrupt. I used to be a Literature Professor, you see, before I ended up here... It's a long story. Anyway, what's your name? Mine's Melonin. Are you here to join up with the Radiants to?" All thoughts of leaving forgotten, Melonin waited patiently for a reply. Yes, I am signing up to this game - catching up all of the subterfuge and murder that I'd enjoy with all of you proved too tempting an opportunity.

Melinon could have sworn he felt a prickling on the back of his neck of someone watching him. He turned around, looking around, but there was no-one watching him. Except the Cthaeh, of course. The Cthaeh was always watching... The prickling feeling continued, however. Continuing to ignore the glares of the behemoth next to him, he turned around again. Around the cobbled courtyard, up on top of the tents... there. On top of the pole, was that a figure, watching the proceedings? What was he up to? He looked at the exit. He didn't know what was going on here, but he felt like he was a lamb being set up for the slaughter. Now might be his last chance to get out. Then the prickling on his neck stopped. Melinon looked around, confused, and took a moment to find the pillar where he was sure he saw the figure before. Whoever it was was gone. For some reason, this helped Melinon ease the tension in his shoulders just slightly, though he couldn't put his finger on why the figure in the distance seemed so foreboding. Maybe, just maybe, this would all go well, and this would be Melinon's path to victory. Nevertheless, he kept a firm eye on the exits of the courtyard. To El: This has never really been your style, but I've grown too used to Joe not to ask this: Are there any secret roles or alignments in this game?[/color=blue]

There was still time. Brightness Kenara hasn't reached us yet. I squirmed, looking around. The exits were uncovered. All it would take would be to make a dash, rush into the nearest alleyway. I wasn't good at much else, but I was fairly sure that once I made it into the alleyway it would be childs play to lose anyone chasing after me. I continued to peer around, looking for any obstacles or people that might get in my way. When I turned the other way, I saw another Alethi soldier beside me, almost blocking out from the sun with his enormous frame, look over and gave me a menacing glare, before turning back and returning to a stiff attention posture. I could do it. If I was to dash away, now would be my chance. I'd signed up to be a hero, to have an adventure. But there were no heroes in war. Only death. Lots and lots of death. And then, a messenger arrived, telling me to meet in the square for a 'glorious opportunity'. I was fairly certain they said the same thing to soldiers going on suicide missions. On the other hand... Was this the moment? If I walked away now, let Melinon Olmar mean nothing for the rest of my life, having slipped away now, only to find that the rest of these people, lining up straight and neat as a firing squad, went on to be the heroes I'd always wanted to be. Would I ever forgive myself if I moved away now? Sure, we were only going out on a training exercise. But, this moment right here might be my last chance to get away. I shifted in my position, drawing another glare from hulk next to me. Meanwhile, Brightness Kenara moved another space down the line. "I'm Johnny Quick, Brightness." If it wasn't clear, that was me being indecisive about whether or not I should join the game. I'll either be joining or spec'ing, but I'm not sure which yet. What will it be? Will Melinon stay, or will he run away? Stay tuned to find out, folks.

Ah, of course. Thanks. That helps a lot.

Thanks! I'm glad to be back! It's a shame that I spent so long away. I'm not sure I'll be able to return to playing a game any time soon (though I'll certainly keep an eye on my timetable and the games coming up to see if there's one I can't miss), but I probably won't be able to rejoin SE properly until about November. That said, if I sign up to run an QF and an MR now, I probably wouldn't be running it until at least that time, if not later, so I have no qualms about signing up for both of those now, if that's OK. (On the off chance I do get to the front of the list before then, I'll likely pass until after November anyway). I've got a loose idea for a Rose Empire game based around the mechanic of Forging and Soulstamps in particular (just a quick question for someone who remembers the Emperors Soul well - once a Stamp has been created, can anyone use it, or just a Forger? I can work with both, but it might change what the game looks like), which I think, currently, will be in the MR. (The reason I'm signing up for a QF at the same time is that I might change my mind on that later, and decide there won't be enough mechanics wise to run an MR. Otherwise, I'm expecting the QF to be a Scadrial game set in the days the Lord Ruler was still founding the Final Empire - an idea I had, IIRC, since before I left, that I think I haven't seen before, that could be quite interesting for both RP and mechanic reasons.)

Last night, there was a breach discovered in a large number of sites including Cloudflare. Some major sites, such as Discord, Uber, and Yelp use Cloudflare. In total, there were up to about 4.5 million domains that could have been affected. Luckily, it appears that Google discovered the leak and informed Cloudflare before the hackers discovered the bug, so the number of sites actually affected seem to be minimal. To search for potentially affected sites, you can go to this website and search up any sites that were potentially affected. It's been recommended that you change your passwords on all the Cloudflare based domains you can think of/remember, just to be safe instead of sorry, as there are a residual number of password folders, etc., that have been residually been left on search browsers such as Google and Bing as a result of this leak. Note: The Shard does use Cloudflare, but I got confirmation from the admins, who got confirmation from Cloudflare, that the Shard was not affected by this leak. P.S. For those who don't really understand what Cloudflare is, or want to know more about the Cloudbleed leak, this provides a relatively good explanation. Or, for the more technically minded, you can read Cloudflare's official statement.

This ends right as I get back - I'll sign up as 39214, the agent that has a bizarre fascination with the greatest apparel known to man - the bow tie. He has bow ties of every variety - both non-lethal, and... well. Nont-non-lethal. Because lets face it. Bow ties are cool. Clarifications: How will you count the 100 words? Ifwewriteonegiganticwordwithnospacesdoesthatcountasmanywordsorone? Will you allow strategies and analysis to be posted before the game and before you know your alignment? I'm not completely sure I understand "C" - If A's regular PM's are with B and... D, say. They may or may not also have a special contacts/Elim PM with E. If C redirects A's PM to F, will that close B's,D's, or E's PM's? Will it not work unless A creates a PM with someone that turn? Or if someone creates a PM with A that turn? 'Scuse the tired idiot not understanding... Is the thread told who voted for who in the GM writeups? If the Bureaucrat tries to cut off A's PM, and asks for the PM to be cut off with B, but A doesn't have a PM with B, does their action do nothing, or does it still cancel a random PM between A and someone else? If it does nothing, is the Bureaucrat informed of this? Other notes: The Double Agents get a Doc to discuss in?! o.o (Sheep - Also, I'd ask Alv or an experienced GM whether they think this rule - or any other rule, for that matter - is unbalanced.) Hmmm... there are a couple other things I'd say here, pending your answer on the strategies and analysis thing. Dunno.

Come to the Dark Side, Arinian... We have... cookies. ...That phrase gains a whole new meaning on the Shard, doesn't it?

I'm offering a quick win with Survival if they help us win. With him, and the inactives, we can win this lynch even without me protecting myself, which will end the game.

Sorry... Although... You really think you can kill me? I had protection yesterday... You really think I don't have protection today? Or I won't tonight? Humans... So predictable. *sigh I'll let you in on a little secret. Right now, the earliest you can kill me is Night 9 (Well, actually, we can control all the Night kills right now, so Day 10, really, but let's be optimistic her). The game is currently on track to end Night 8. It could end this turn, even, if only @Arinian sides with us in the lynch today. Survival? The quicker this game ends, the less likely it is you're caught in the crosshairs by Odium or someone else. We're promising to make the game end this turn, which is better for both of us. I think we should kill Dalinar Kholin. I'd put reasoning and all, except I'm kind of an eliminator, and I'm also busy, so I can't be bothered.

Huh. I'll convert you tonight, and pass you a bunch of charges to power your Voidbringing. You get to sit back, send in orders, and enjoy the ride. Sound good? After all, you do want to be on the winning side, don't you?

Gah. Sorry. Went out, and then came back and was being lazy. I don't think it's wise to reveal too much about what roles we have - I don't want the Hoidites targeting any more of us - but we have an Awakener who scanned all of them. Doc made our investment fail, but showed up as a Nalthian non-Shard, which means they had to be Hoid (note: due to RL reasons noted below, I'll advise going for Len and Alv first so Doc has a chance to defend themselves - I didn't know there was RL stuff going on when I started this post). Alv we were less certain about - they showed up as a Rosharan Shard - which could either be Cultivation - in which case why would they imply Mage would be Cultivation, unless they had an ulterior motive for doing so? Odium, we discounted fairly early, because it seemed to be up in the wind, and we didn't think Alv would be inactive if they had a kill role to use. Len was marked as a Selish Shard, which meant with Devotion Shattered, they must have had Dominion, which we'd suspected was in the hands of the Hoidites anyway. Then Len also pulls this out of their hat today to try and get me lynched. That, combined with the fact that they've been voting together quite consistently the past few cycles has made us relatively certain about their alignments. There are a couple others we suspect - we're waiting to see how they vote and react in thread to confirm or possibly deny our suspicions. Odium - target Alv, please - he has a Shard, and he's a Hoidite. 2 problems solved in 1. Actually, he's also Alv, so make that 3 problems solved in 1. Then we have 2 Hoidites out of the way (assuming we can still swing it to Len today), and we can lynch Doc tomorrow when he gets back. Hopefully, by that stage, I'll be able to get back to you on the other Hoidites. Unrelated to everything above, Doc just posted on Discord, and wanted someone to pass on that he probably won't be able to post at all tomorrow due to a RL tragedy for a friend of his.

Wow... Much of a bandwagon, anyone? OK, so people don't believe me. Fine. And, for the record, I don't think Hoid is Elenion himself - he probably got converted at some point. If it's not too late, lynch Len the moment my alignment is revealed, followed by their buddies Doc and Alv, and... 2 others, who we haven't worked out yet. If you don't believe me, just look at their voting patterns the last few cycles, and you'll see they consistently voted with each other... We think Doc is the most likely to be Hoid right now, but it could be any of them - we're not exactly sure. Ruin seemed to agree with us though - I imagine Doc used his Survival charge to save himself if he was Hoid. Honour Invested in me last night - that's why Odium's attack had no effect. Honour is in a convert of Autonomy's hands right now. So, yeah. Len, that's how your logic is flawed. I could have been, and was, invested by Honour. Alv - you are not an Autonomite. I was trying to work out whether my suspicion of you was paranoia or real, but your lie just confirmed that for me. Thanks, I guess. You want me to prove my claim? Fine. Autonomy will convert anyone you want tonight. They can confirm that they were converted - and that I am an Automite - this Night Turn. Put your votes in purple.

Elenion. I don't know where this is coming from - the real Hoid, I suspect - but it won't work. Shame on you, trying to get the village to do it’s dirty work for you. We both know I can’t be Hoid, and I don’t know why you’re pretending I am. Part of me wonders why you choose me, of all people, to try and get lynched. My activity is probably part of it - active enough to send in orders, be a nuisance, but not so active that anyone will have a village read on me and want to object to my lynch. What I don’t get is what you get out of it - the game won’t end so quickly that they won’t lynch you, and that puts your team and mine back in equal positions... You know what? Village, here are your choices: I was converted by Autonomy. You can side with the group that can maybe, possibly win with you, or side with the eliminators, who you can’t win with. Your choice...

I guess Drake seems to be the bandwagon of choice. Feels kind of... anticlimactic, and definitely unfair on Drake, but... at least it's only one cycle, and 2 deaths... Drake, I hope you sign up to another game - most of them don't end up like this, as you might have guessed. @little wilson - This was... definitely not the way I'd expected this game to turn out, and it's slightly disheartening, but I am certainly looking forward to seeing how the next iteration unfolds... Hopefully we'll eventually get a version of this game where one or more Eliminators don't reveal and then go on to survive and win the game... That seems to be a bit of an MR10 specialty...

Len - you're right - I have been more inactive lately, rather than less as I'd originally thought. I apologize for that. Part of that is due to unforssen RL stuff coming up, and part of it is just my own laziness, procrastination and nervousness of acting with so little information. This one Cycle delay in information is really throwing me - normally I think I'd have more of an idea as to what's going on, but I have almost no clue. We've actually had a surprisingly low number of deaths (what with only Odium and Ruin intermittently killing), and with the one cycle delay, its even worse. I feel starved of information - but I'll give it a shot 1. Assassin in Burgundy - First of the Game Bandwagonned easily just then, but in general seems relatively uncertain about what's going on. I think if they were an Eliminator, judging from LG25, I think they'd probably hide until it was time to bandwagon at the very last cycle, which its not time for yet, so I'm slightly less suspicious of them for that... But only slightly. Too little to tell. I'd say weak suspicion, mainly because I can't always follow their train of thought in voting habits. 2. Master Elodin - Second of the Signups Don't think they're an Eliminator. They were under scrutiny towards the beginning of the game, and I feel like they reacted as village Elodin would. I think they'd have been a bit more... forceful in their arguments? 3. Jondesu - Quintus 17th Shard Worldhopper Died too early for any connections to be made :/ I looked through Night 1 again, and very little comment was made about Jondesu's death. Didn't especially associate with anyone, nobody seemed to push for their revival... In short, theres nothing here to incriminate anyone else, so far as I can see. 4. AliasSheep - Kelen Taldar Returned Held Devotion. Didn't have any particularly strong views in thread, before apparently using his Breath up for something. Did he say anything to the people in his World PM about his intentions? Who else was with him? 5. Darkness Ascendant - Kaldain Selblessed Inactive. Too little to tell. At least we know they're not lurking and sending in orders - they haven't even been online. Leave them alive - I don't honestly think we can afford 6. A Joe in the Bush - Jack Tormander Returned Agent of Autonomy I don't understand why Joe was converted to Autonomy, knowing he would commit suicide. The only thing I can think of is that Auto thought Joe had information. Maybe Auto thought Joe was 17th Shard, and therefore knew who the Shards were? In which case, I strongly suspect Auto is someone who voted on Joe Day 1. Which coincides with what... someone, sorry I've forgotten who you are, said when they accused Alv of being Autonomy. That's all I could get from here. 7. Doc12 - Silence I've had a bad gut read developing on Doc over the last Cycle or two - I really should have posted before, but I've been busy. I'd like to do a more detailed post analysing Doc's posts... but not right now. Probably one of my top picks for the lynch right now. Either they're a Hoidite or possibly an Automite at best, I think. I find it highly unlikely that they're village. 8. Kynedath - Desten Kyde Inactive Lurker. I'd be OK with killing them, but they said in MR19 that they were on mobile and had RL stuff, so wasn't doing many posts, or lengthy ones. That could explain his behaviour here too. 9. TheMightyLopen - Kaloo Vessel of Odium I also had a relative village read on Lopen. I think Lopen's too good a player to have an obvious champion. Odium, whoever you are, I think the only chance you have of completing your win con right now is to work with the village against the Hoidites. 10. Straw - Malum Farcimen Errr... I think they were pretty clearly the Threnody Shard, by the looks of things. Assuming the Threnody Shard didn't have it's own alignment, they're village. 11. Young Bard - Serol Slightly inactive - will probably work things out 'eventually'... *sigh 12. Magestar - Magestar I'll wait to see Mage's info after it's revealed in the writeup to talk about this. I could break down and explain what it means if Mage were in every faction, but I think I could do better things with my time. One thing I find interesting is that Mage died and then Odium starting killing again - I think it very possible that Mage could have been the Champion of Honor to Lopen, and recieved it after he died. When he passed on, it was moved again and given to someone who actually killed. 13. Alvron - Lorna I agree that Alv is probably Autonomy. Which makes me very nervous, but the Hoidites are the bigger threat at the moment, so I'm hoping that we can side through mutual necessity. Alv, I never thought I'd ask this, but any pieces of information you could reveal, that would be very valuable right now. 14. Dalinar Kholin - Sanya Posted just then in response to a claim of inactivity - they didn't contribute one line of discussion. 15. Harambe - PUNisher Elantrian Nothing that I can see to be learned from this, unfortunately, except that Harambe is a particularly chaotic player. 16. I_am_a_Stick - Stic Not much to say here except a mild gut good read? Dunno. 17. RubiksCube - cubefright archive Not enough to go on, unfortunately. I haven't noticed them playing especially different to how they usually do, but I think it's possible they are an eliminator. Neutral. 18. DroughtBringer - Ralar They've been playing well this game - I don't know if that's a sign that they're getting help, or if I'm just growing paranoid. If this is their own playstyle, then they'll be a player to watch in the future. Weak suspicion. 19. Araris Valerian - Aralis Difficult to tell. Araris has always kept their cards close to their chest. I think they might be slightly more inclined to post either more or less if they were an Eliminator, and I haven't seen either so much, so... Neutral, with a slight evil bias due to paranoia, knowing I probably couldn't catch them if they were an Elim or an Automite. 20. Arinian - Arinian Dunno... Arinian, have you claimed Survival to anyone before this Cycle, like was suggested by Joe? I was in your World PM's the last... 3(?) cycles, and you didn't claim there. I understand being afraid of Odium, but Survival is the easy claim role when you're about to get lynched. 21. Zephrer - Tardeick True inactive. Let them lie - lynching them won't solve anything, except having one less villager to count to the eliminator win con, I imagine. 22. Conquestor - Farallen Oniz Vessel of Preservation Conq's death combined with Sheeps, to me, made me think that Odium was working with the Hoidites, because otherwise it was a very lucky guess. But... there's no sign of further co-operation, which gives me hope. 23. Sart - Sam Trudite Hmmm... I'm slightly suspicious that Sart didn't mention the attack... With the write-up, I think Sart sounds like a Feruchemist. Is that right, Sart? 24. Aonar Faileas - Nilan Izenry Paranoia + Lurkishness makes gives me a slight elim read. Dunno. 25. Elenion - emissary of Mandos I do think Len isn't a Hoidite, assuming they're telling the truth about causing Preservation to leave the game. They still could be an Automite or an Odiumite, but they're not my primary concern right now. 26. Kasimir - Tenth of the Dusk Uhhh... could definitely be evil... Again, someone who I'm slightly paranoid over because I know I couldn't catch them if they were an Eliminator. Pheww.... That took a while. And I didn't find someone to vote for... I think Doc is probably my best bet, but I don't want to do all the analysis now for that, so I'll put a placeholder vote on Kynedath as well until I've prepared my analysis post on Doc. I should get to that in about 8-10 hours or so at most.

I guess I'd better solidify the lynch, just in case... Sart. Now it's just a matter of hoping the vote manips don't strike twice... Also, I think we're going to have a bunch of inactive deaths once rollover comes around. Which, hopefully, will balance the numbers between the factions (and doesn't kill the Bondsmith, hopefully...)

Oh, also Sart, because I just said I was going to go hunting for Diagrammists on the other team first, and I know Lopen, at least, is on my team, so... Sorry Sart... And Wilson, I guess, for a last minute change to the lynch. (I'll warn you if I do that again, Wilson - kind of ran out of time today.)

Continuing on to where I was before... Lightweavers - Not too many ideas here. I'd suggest doing a pointless vote manip. this cycle so we know how many of you there are totally. I'd suggest performing your action swap from someone you trust to someone you don't trust... I feel like I've badgered Wilson with enough questions, but here's one more... What happens if a Lightweaver redirects a scan/PM reading role? Is the scanner told they were redirected, and if so, to whom? Are they still told the scan results of the new player? If you could accidentally alter a scan or PM reading role, then I don't think you should use your action redirection without very good reasons. Where there are cycles with a clear majority, stack up the votes to be doubly sure they get lynched, etc. If you have information that the thread doesn't know, you should act on it, but don't do it recklessly based on mild hunches. Elsecallers - Seriously, if you start messing with dead players alignments, I'll assume the worst - that you're a Diagrammist. Aside from at least one PM maker, I think this is the most likely Diagrammist role in the game. Dual protect/information hider - it's a Diagrammists best friend. If you are by some miracle a village Elsecaller, then stick with protecting your most trusted villager each cycle. Whatever you do, don't hide a players alignment. Surgeon - No real advice... Do your thing - remember to send in actions. Whatever kind of player I think the Diagrammists will attack, they'll change their tactics to avoid attacking one I post, so there's no net gain. Runner - If you know an Edgedancer, team up with them to get words between them and the leader of their faction directly, because its the easiest way to test PM's between players. Also the other role that I most suspect is Diagramm-y, seeing as the Diagram doesn't start with a Doc, they'll need a Runner to communicate (or else dupe the Bondsmith into linking them up, but I think it's a bit unlikely for Wilson to expect that...) Artifabrian - Save it for the late game, I think. This is handy as a protect role if you think a villager with a useful role is about to get attacked - but it only works once. I think throwing it away in the early game is a mistake. Ardent - Same deal as the Lightweavers. Do something that doesn't affect the lynch this cycle (bit late now, I know... Sorry :/ ) to let us know you're there, then try and prevent vote manips if you can. Only actually change the result if you're sure that what you're doing is right. Cook - I'm... honestly not sure about this. Part of me thinks it would be contradictory to support a lynch and not a vig kill, but... you don't learn as much about players opinions from vig kills. In the end, I think it comes down to how good your intuition has been historically, and how strongly you think you're right. Veristapodifjasfum Scholars (seriously, how do you spell that...) - Is this a counter to the Elsecallers? I'm not sure I understand what good this does. Scan the dead, I suppose... If this is a role, then I'm basically now 100% certain that at least one Elsecaller is an Eliminator. Explorer - send in actions & stay alive, I guess. The non-assassinating Assassin - Hmmm... Interesting stuff. I'd like to think about this one some more, but I won't post before rollover if I do it now. So, sorry, and IOU right now. :/ Sorry this whole list wasn't as informative as I was hoping - I think I probably raced through the second half too quickly to be useful, but hopefully this will at least help some of the newer players, and the Radiants, who are the most important roles, at least. If it isn't clear, I am going for the Primary win con first and foremost. That doesn't mean I won't search the other sides team for Diagrammists first (), but I do think that that was the problem with LG23 - everybody ignored the larger threat to stop the smaller one. From what I've seen, MR10 had a similar issue.