Young Bard

First, I can verify Rand's claim. Secondly, I think the list of possible Sophie's right now is Drought, Eternum, and Elenion, with Orlok as a distant fourth if they're all village. I'm leaning against Eternum, simply because I don't think they were active enough to submit actions. I could also get behind a lynch on Elenion, though I've started a PM with them in the hopes of getting a better read. Actually, simply due to opportunity, I'm leaning slightly towards Elenion being Sophie, because I wonder whether Drought's not been active enough to submit actions for Sophie. (If this lynch doesn't take off, I'd be OK with a Drought lynch, though.) As for the convert, there are several more options - basically all of us except Orlok and Rand is possible. For now, though, Sophie's my priority, as we have a much better idea of who Sophie is, and lynching Sophie will result in one less convert being sent over to the Eliminators.

Hmmm... I think I'll kickstart this with a vote for Steeldancer, who I've been fairly impressed by around the board recently. He's one of the more RP-heavy players, which is becoming rarer (not that I'm helping), and I want to encourage that, but he's also done well on the playstyle side of things, by breaking the SK curse in LG41. Plus, I think they're a fairly interesting member of the community, that deserves the candidacy, but not get as much attention as a more obvious candidate. Hmmm... I'm going to have to think about my second vote, as I think there are a number of good options. (Though I suspect quite a few of them will say they're too busy.)

I've heard through PM's that the knight didn't block an attack last cycle, so Sophie almost certainly converted. Hmmm... I'm going to through the list again, but I'm thinking of either Drought (who I hope to see more of), Len or Orlok as potential Sophies. Potential acolytes are a lot harder, but I'm actually going to guess that Sophie might have gone for some newer players as a way of trying to do what people wouldn't expect, so maybe Devotary, Crimsn or Elandara.

But where's the fun in that? Everyone knows that the point of SE is driving the GM insane(r).

Gah. Elandara, Drought. Not sure if this will make it for rollover, but it shouldn't matter too much.

OK, I'm going to take my vote off of Drought, and move my vote over to Elandara. If my head vote tally is correct, that will place everyone on one vote, except for Eternum at zero (who's inactive anyway), Orlok at zero, who has immunity for a cycle, Bort at three who's getting lynched.

I had a half finished post that I got distracted from yesterday, which has now been swallowed into the ether. (It's largely out of date, anyway, I suppose, so I'd basically have to have rewritten it anyway, but still...) DroughtBringer (Player List) - no read. I'd feel comfortable lynching them right now. Eternum (x/0) - no read, but I find it unlikely they're Sophie because I don't think they've put enough attention into the game to really submit actions so far. Elenion (TK421) - I'm going to say a very slight village read - it would be a moderate read but I'd prefer to be more paranoid then clear someone I shouldn't this game. (Len, I'd like to ask what it is about your PM and the analysis post that struck you as village specifically.) Devotary (Player4.exe) - I agree with most other peoples analysis that Devotary seems cleared. (Orlok, I'm sure there's been at least one other game I've played where a slip of the tongue has revealed an Eliminator, even though I can't think of it right now. It was a while ago, though, I'll admit.) Randuir (Cane) - I've had a slight village read on Rand since Cycle 1. (Specifically, the tone of the post where Rand discussed role claiming felt honest to me as a gut read.) Young Bard (Halting Algorithm) - me Bort (Black IC) - No read. I'd feel most comfortable lynching them at this point, but I also know their playstyle the least, not having played with them before, which makes me reluctant. Orlok Tsubodai (McAfee) - Orlok's long post analysing the game felt honest - it seems like they were catching up and giving their genuine reactions to things that happened, so slight village read. Also, non-game talk: How do you quote from people in a previous cycle (apart from copy pasting what they said into a quote box)? I've been trying to work that out for several games now. Elandera (Rayda) - Moderate to strong village. I have a PM with them, and they seem fairly villagery to me right now. CrimsnWolf (O7npC) - Village - I don't think Sophie would have done something like that at the end of Cycle 1, as it was only going to draw suspicion. Vote Count, as I think it stands: Bort (1): Drought Elenion (1): Bort Drought (1): Randuir Randuir (2): Elandera, Orlok Crimsn (1): Len At the moment, Rand is getting lynched. While that isn't the worst choice, it's not the best choice either. Removing the people who I have trust reads on (or who I said I thought were unlikely to be Sophie, which is the same thing right now) from the list of players gives this: DroughtBringer (Player List) Bort (Black IC) Orlok Tsubodai (McAfee) I'm going to vote for Droughtbringer for now, because I'm most comfortable lynching them, and since we have an hour left. If there's only a few minutes left in the cycle, and it looks like it's going to go to a coinflip, I'll probably swap votes to Elandera, Orlok, or myself as a preventative measure. Actually... I may or may not - Joe, will you be saying who has immunity in the write-up like you did this cycle if the immunity comes down a coinflip? If the answer to that is yes, I'll have to think about what I do, because I'm not exactly sure.

Hmmm... Actually, Devotary's idea might be pretty good - have a number of people on one vote - if Sophie tries and fails to convert one of them, they won't know whether it's because they were immune or whether they had a role. I may as well swap my vote from Coop to Orlok in order to help that plan.

Huh. Fair enough. Devotary. Unfortunately, that doesn't leave me with much to go on in terms of suspicion. Unless anyone has any other suspicions they'd like to go with, I'm happy to follow along with a lynch on Coop or Eternum.

Excellent. I hoped you'd say that. Devotary of Spontaneity. This line stuck out to me before: I double checked, and this was not confirmed in the original rules or in the thread since. So, Devotary must have asked that in a PM or in a doc. Devotary asked a few questions in the signups thread, but this isn't one of them. I think this might be what happened. Devotary gets their role PM and discovers they're Sophie. This causes them to start thinking more about what their role can do, and they have more questions about Sophie's abilities. However, they don't want to draw attention to themselves by asking all these questions in thread, so they do so in a PM. Then, with a slip of the tongue, they forget that the answer wasn't public knowledge. I'll admit, I'm not confident on this, but I think it's significantly more likely than any other lynch I could try to start on Cycle 1.

Hmmm... Joe, if two or more people are voted in second place, what will happen in terms of them being immune to conversion? Will they all be immune, or none of them, or something else? Walin. I look forward to seeing your reads when you have some. I'll abstain from voting for anyone else right now, because it will depend on the answer to my question for Joe.

[16:34:24 - Loading personality traits...] [16:34:40 - Personality traits loaded.] [16:34:40 - Retrieving memories...] [16:34:47 - Memories retrieved.] [16:34:47 - Initialising body...] [16:34:51 - Body initialised.] [16:34:51 - Porting algorithm to location: Alornia...] [16:34:56 - Sucessfully ported.] The Halting Algorithm (It liked Hal for short) slowly stood up, groaning. That feeling of being put together, piece by piece, was always one of the things it hated most about his existence. It was a way of making Hal very conscious of its own lack of humanity - a fact it generally tried to ignore most of the time. And deep inside, in a place where Hal didn't like to look, there was always the fear that one day, there would be an error in the loading process. To suddenly have one part of the pile of code that made it up fail. It could happen any day, and the worst part was, Hal would have no clue it was coming until it was too late. But that hadn't happened today, and there was work to do. Hal turned it's attention outwards. First off, welcome to SE! QF's have a combined 24 hour day-night cycle. Hmmm... There's a slight chance that Joe didn't include all three roles in this game. I don't think it's likely, for balance reasons, but it's possible. Hmmm... Joe, can you confirm whether all three villager roles are in this game? It says Sophie starts alone, but has multiple lives. So if someone survives the lynch today, we know they must be Sophie. Speaking of the lynch, Walin. Hi! Have a poke vote. P.S. Disclaimer: Hal has no affiliation with, nor was it inspired by, any other real or fictional characters named 'Hal' or 'HAL'. Any relationship between them is purely co-incidental.

I'll sign up as Halting Algorithm.exe I'll let all the other algorithms know whether they're expected to run for the length of the game, or, well... Halt. Until, of course, people realize that a Halting Algorithm can't exist, and I'm making everything up...

Holy copper, Batman, it's over already? And here was me thinking I was going to be sitting watching from the dead doc for three months. (He seems to have confirmed it in the dead doc and locked it off, so I'm pretty sure Seonid's not making this up.)

Hmmm... In that case, Eternum, Jondesu. Sorry, Jon. (And Rae/Seonid... :/ )

Hmmmm... Gah, I also have no idea if HH is having one of his Aspects vote with him today as well, which changes whether I should switch my vote or not. Does anyone remember?

Hmmm... I'm for an Eternum lynch, as he does look to be the most likely candidate for Ruin (he's been active enough to send in actions, which only really how active you need to be). Quickly responding to Rand - I'm not nearly gutsy enough as an Eliminator to bring forward the analysis that incriminates myself as a way of soft-clearing myself, if that makes sense. I'm well aware that could be an IKYK. However, to try and reduce the number of possible Ruins, I'll move to a planet where I think Ruin is least likely to be - either Scadrial or Nalthis, as both of those have Aspects of Autonomy on them - which should help to clear me. Hmmm... Whoever it was that posted the "Ruin is likely part of Hoid's faction" theory (I forget who, sorry. :/ ), I'm... divided on this. On the one hand, your argument kind of makes sense, but on the other hand, I feel like the writeup explicitly calls out Ruin converting to his own win con, and I imagine Hoid would want to keep Braize so they can have their acolytes perform kills. Hoid may have a no-kill rule, but the same doesn't apply to his supporters, I don't think. Pyro - believing something because more experienced players say it's true is worrying - who's to say they aren't Eliminators and aren't trying to manipulate you into following their argument? It's OK to look for other players for guidance - I do that all the time - but make sure you trust those players first.

I may as well quickly verify this list is correct, and that I was on Silverlight until it exploded. The thing that surprised me most is that I would have expected an as-close-as-possible even distribution of refugees between planets. The fact that there are 3 (2, if you don't count Steel as a refugee like Jon and Joe presumably are) makes me think that: 1) That guess is wrong, and Seonid didn't necessarily distribute the players evenly, or: 2) That 3/4 refugees (including Steel) landed on each planet, and Ruin also happened to land on a planet with 4 refugees, leading to the strange amount of new players to Roshar. Could someone from the other 2 planets double check who was there already, and who arrived, to check whether it's more likely to be Option 1 or 2? For now, I'm going to be assuming it's Option 2. If so, that implies that Ruin is one of Rand, Eternum, Shane, Fifth, or Ripple. Rand claimed Ambition, so he's out, and Shane seems to be inactive, leaving three players. For Eternum, Fifth and Ripple, I'd like them to say their whereabouts for the game so far. Eternum - Hard to tell - I haven't seen them post enough to give any indication. Fifth - They first brought up Ruin in the Roshar Doc - I could see this being Ruin who was focused on their own role, hence them mentioning it (similar to Pyro with the Survival role, though less so.) Then again, it could easily be a villager who was just being (perhaps justly) paranoid. Ripple - I had a brief conversation with them in the Roshar Doc, and they seemed confused and still getting their feet. I don't read that as them faking - though they could be Ruin and still genuinely confused, I suppose. I wouldn't mind other people from the Roshar doc commenting on whether they agree with that assessment, though. If I were forced to pick between the three of them for the most likely Ruin candidate, I'd say Fifth, though I'm definitely not sure of the fact. I'm also wondering whether I'm really overthinking this, which is... very possible. I'm going to have a look at this in the morning, and see whether my non-tired (or at least less-tired) brain still agrees with my analysis before I put a vote down. Going by Rand's theory that Ruin was in a Doc with somebody Night 2, if anyone was in a doc with one of these three players in Night 2 (remembering that Ripple is pinchhitting for Monster, for those who missed it), please come forward, as that might be the key to finding Ruin.

Gah, I thought that Straw had the ability to protect themselves from the lynch, for some reason. That changes my plan. :/ Honestly, I'm slightly more inclined to believe Straw, but I struggle to imagine a scenario in which either HH and Pyro or Straw and Mage are both lying. In the end, I think I'm going to vote based off of who I think will reveal more useful information for the village, and I think that's Straw. Straw's made quite a few bold statements, they were the only one to recommend Ruin destroying Braize before it happened, and they've generally attracted the attention of more of the players that I'm trying and struggling to read (Fifth, Mage, Rand, and HH themself), which means it's going to be more proactive to see their alignment. Also, with the way the numbers are (with HH submitting votes as Autonomy), this is also the vote that is less likely to accidentally cause a tie, which would be bad for the village as the third non-lynch in a row. EDIT: Monster Metroid - I meant to post that and I forgot.

Hmmm... I don't think either of you would make good lynch candidates. Plus, yet another lynch without receiving a death (which would be the case, if Straw were lynched and he's telling the truth about having Preservation) would be really bad for the village. LivingLegend Monster Metroid - I don't find them especially suspicious, but I find them more suspicious than either of the main candidates, and, they'll actually die so we'll get some concrete information to analyse, which we dearly need. HH is a possible lynch candidate as well - if the MM lynch doesn't take off, I'll likely swap over to HH before the cycle ends. Sorry this is so short, I'm between lectures right now. I can hopefully post more analysis tonight.

Hmmm... The (highly subjective) way I see the vote tally right now: HH: A bunch Straw: A few Pyromancer: One or two (I think - there was certainly conversation - I can't remember if that's been translated in votes) Droughtbringer: Randuir Anybody else: Nobody This is... a fairly narrow avenue of conversation, IMO - I'll probably end up switching my vote to HH before cycle's end, (hopefully with a fair amount of analysis, though that's probably optimistic for lazy old me, as always). So, I'm going to try and broaden out the lynch discussion a little bit. Let's see... The players I want to examine in more detail (I'll try to get to it before cycle's end) are: Fifth Scholar Devotary of Spontanaeity LivingLegend MonsterMetroid If any other players (especially those who I called out as inactive) want to comment on one of the above four players, please do. Oh, and for the people who are a part of these new PM's - I'd like to quickly reiterate the point Orlok made while he was around: Don't trust any group PM's you are in - the chance that every single player is a villager is extraordinarily slim - the chance that they will remain that way for the whole game is even less.

Gah. I missed that Straw had more votes again. Excellent. Straw HH EDIT: (Sorry for the double post - I wanted to make sure that Seonid caught the vote switch so close to rollover. )

Gah. I trust Pyromancer's claim, so I'll swap my vote from Arinian to HH to try and stop that hammer, not that I think it will do any good. At least I think Pyro will survive today, but this is the second cycle in which the village will get no information from today's lynch. During rollover, I'm going to read through how the Pyromancer bandwagon started again, because I'm sure someone there had an interest in 1) shutting off useful information and 2) driving discussion away from where it would be useful. I also have a suspicion of Straw, but that might change on the reread.

Gah. It seems like uni will take up most of my time in the Monday-Wednesday period generally when I have classes (it's Tuesday night/technically very early Wednesday morning for me now) - me dropping off the Shard is mostly due to that. In the 'off-periods', I should have much more time to dedicate to the game, which is why my activity level will probably fluctuate somewhat. Which is why I'm posting a quick, after-midnight post now (again), and only have time for the things that are directly aimed at me, except for one or two quick points (again). I apologise for that. His comment at the start of the cycle about nothing having changed was your stated main reason to suspect him. How does him being Khriss in the Timeline-0 change this statement in a way that makes it less suspicious? I'm not really seeing how it makes it an less suspicious. Overall, Young bard has been an active participant in discussion, and hasn't been afraid to push less popular plans. He doesn't seem to want to lie low, so I'm leaning village on him right now. Yeah, the 17th Shard Sudden Death Win Con is definitely a blazing wreck at this point. It was worth a shot, though. The specific comment (it's very early in the LG43a Night 0, if you want to find it) specifically had a line that struck me as off that was basically "Well, we've started again, but that doesn't matter to me at all since I have the same role..." <- I am ridiculously exaggerating this, but it struck me as very, very off, and it was a matter of trying to decide whether it was 1) my head being weird, which it turned out not to be, 2) him having a role and losing it, and not wanting to reveal the fact, or 3) him gaining a role, and not wanting to reveal the fact. I was assuming it wasn't Number 1, since I had nothing better to go on, so it was a matter of deciding whether it was Number 2 or Number 3. When he claimed Khriss, that was me going "So that's what caused that weird line" in my head, which meant it was a lot easier to write off Number 3 as a dud theory. Does that make sense? I'm not sure if I'm able to describe my thought process clearly this late at night. Huh. Nobody's voted yet? Hmmm... Arinian (@Arinian) - you contributed very little to the discussion, and when you did, you voted in favour of a no-lynch, when a lynch could have helped the village gain more information on the alignments of players. Could you elaborate on why you started a no-lynch vote? As I said at the start, tomorrow I should be somewhat more able to get on properly tomorrow and properly comment on the game as a whole so far, and a much deeper analysis of several players. (Well, that's the theory, anyway. I find that things rarely work out like that.) P.S. Me saying I thought someone was lying was a bluff that turned out to be completely wrong. I thought Pyromancer was lying when he said he was Survival the first game, as a way of encouraging people (including the actual Survival, who would presumably know he was lying after seeing a fake win con) to contact him. It turns out I, uhhh, misjudged Pyro, let's say. P.P.S. (I did that analysis after about 4 hours of sleep. Don't judge.)

Hmmm... I want to get home, but I also want to respond while the Americans are still awake. First off, Droughtbringer, before I forget. Second off, I trust Pyromancer's claim, or at the very least, I don't think he's Hoid/Khriss. Part of that's a meta reason - I don't think Seonid would give that role to a new player, for balance reasons (and yes, I remember AG2, no need to remind me... ), but also, I get the impression that he is just a very empassioned new player, not a villager. If anything, I suspect he'd be more reserved and trying not to draw attention as an Eliminator, which is the exact opposite of what he's being doing this whole time. Unless anyone counterclaims this, I'm putting a trust read on Pyromancer for now. Thirdly, I'm strongly against a Fifth Scholar lynch, especially if it shuts down useful discussion on the lynch, which it functionally did do, as both Sart and Orlok pointed out. I'm probably most suspicious of HH right now - I'm going to spend the trip home thinking about whether I want to vote on them so near to the end of the cycle when they probably won't be able to get on to respond (if not, I'll find someone else to lynch - I've already mentioned I'm strongly against a no lynch). Arinian is another possibility, except there's a very similar problem.