little wilson

Not at all, nope. Whatever would give you that impression?

I'm going to be an overachiever here.... Greece, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. Do Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria count? Moldova? I think those might be too far inland.... Name 10 sovereign countries in Oceania. (countries like Guam and American Samoa don't count, as they're not sovereign) this one is a tough one, since technically there are only 16 or 17, depending on how you count it.

Name 15 capitals of real sovereign countries. (I could be cruel and do 20 or 25 but I'll restrain myself )

Actually, I disagree. I'm 5'4'' and I have no trouble getting through a crowd of people. At all. Skirting around people, dodging under arms, whatever. If I'm with a group of people and we have to navigate through a crowd, I typically have to stop and wait for everyone else to catch up. Of course, this might because I have a very good sense of direction and I make sure I know exactly where I'm headed before jumping in, because once I'm in, I can't see a thing.... This. Or they all complain about having to duck under it so they don't walk into it, and you just shrug and keep walking, no hesitation. (Although one time I did this and I miscalculated the height of the tree branch and totally hit my head...<--That didn't happen.)

I'm just going to make a couple comments in response to Unodus. Nothing in-depth since I've got things going on in real life that are compromising my thoughts and emotions and I don't want any chance of that spilling out here. 1. I wasn't expecting that analysis to find a spiked so soon after posting. While it would've nice and I was hoping it would, it was never a guarantee. There are few guarantees in this game. However, give it a cycle or two more, and couple those 2 analyses with the analyses of Seonid and anyone else, and--as Pifferdoo already noted--patterns will start to emerge and all that collectively will help find the Spiked. 2. I've already given the vast majority of my information to certain players, should I die. They're players that I trust implicitly and believe are not Spiked just as much as I believed Eol wasn't Spiked when I defended him. They know I've been straight with them and they are aware of the one piece of information I'm withholding from them. They also know exactly why I'm withholding it. I cannot be more honest and straight that I am currently being, but I don't expect you to take my word on that. 3. It's true that if I were Spiked, it would be important to take me out. The reverse should also be considered. If I am not Spiked, I currently hold a very key position in terms of gaining information and uncovering the Spiked. If I die, that position is lost, even if my current information has been passed off to others. If you're willing to lose that position, go for it. Obviously, it won't happen today, but tomorrow. I will tell you, though, that because of my Lurcher contact, the Spiked can only kill me through the lynch, unless they do in fact have a Mistborn and can double tap me during the night. Personally, I'm not particularly worried about my death. If it's at the hands of the village, I'll be interested to see what you all have to say when you learn who and what I am. I have a feeling you won't be happy with yourselves, particularly if PMs are still running. But we'll see after it happens. That is all. I am now done trying to convince people of my alignment. Should anyone else accuse me henceforth, I will not defend myself as everything that I can say has already been said. If the villagers aren't willing to add things up to their logical conclusion, nothing I say will convince them otherwise, as Unodus has so noted by saying he will not change his vote. I'll continue helping as much as I can until I am lynched or double-tapped. I just won't try changing people's minds if they'd prefer me dead. Real life calls now. I won't be back until tomorrow sometime.

Ugh. That sounds terrible. It's pretty bad here too. When I went home for Christmas (I'm from southern Idaho and I live in Utah), it was snowing/raining as I was coming into Salt Lake on my drive back. 90% of the drivers in Utah tailgate horribly in the summer. They don't lighten up in the winter. I had 5-6 seconds between me and the car in front me fairly consistently, and the person behind me was typically less than a second back, but sometimes as far as two seconds back. Why people could ever consider that a safe following distance with enough reaction time is beyond me. Although, I used to tailgate too. Until I spun out on the freeway last year. That terrified me suitably that I learned exactly how to drive in the winter and I don't do that anymore. Nor will I ever again. It was interesting to feel the effects of adrenaline that much though. I'd never had an adrenaline rush quite like one gets when they're facing the wrong direction in the express lane on the interstate....

Oh, I'm not saying viewing in private browsers would be against Fair Play. I do that a fair bit too (mostly at night when I don't have time to post or respond to PMs, so I don't want any of my PM contacts seeing I was online and being like "She didn't answer this!" so I catch up on the thread privately and then go to sleep). What I'm referring to is someone like Jasnah or Dom--someone who by all appearances is entirely inactive. But what if one of them is a Regular Spiked, so they have no role so they don't have to submit role PMs. The spiked want them to submit kill orders, via the doc. So they do. And they keep up with the thread solely in private mode, so it's showing that they haven't logged on to the site in such amount of time. That I think is cheating. For some to be active in the game on the evil side of things but to appear completely and totally inactive on the site. That's the kind of dishonesty that I think is against Fair Play.

Is that the way this game is going then? I wasn't sure, since I know some of the games lately have been run with the GM requiring kill orders to be made through PM. I asked Meta for clarification on that about an hour or two ago, but he hasn't been online. If that is the case, I find that to be cheating. I think if you're making a game-related move, you need to at least show that you're active by logging into the site and submitting your action via PM, even if you're not going to post in the thread. To completely feign inactivity by placing orders in the doc and keeping up with the game via private modes on browsers is, I believe, against fair play, even if we have no rules stating that.

The answer to this depends on what you classify as "evidence." If you're referring to incriminating evidence that would hold up in a court of law (so, a Seeking), no, I do not. But if you're referring to a collection of signs that point toward his being Spiked, yes. Does the evidence I have mean that he must be Spiked? No. He could be a villager that has simply made a lot of mistakes. But some of his mistakes hit a little too close to the last time he was on Team Evil for them to sit well with me. I'm going to take this point-by-point as I have them written in my notes. Early game (approximately first cycle): Gut says something is off. In a PM, I was talking about the composition of Team Evil and that it would probably be comprised of both newer and experienced players. Because of the newer players, it would be hard to figure out exactly what Team Evil is doing, since there may be gambits pulled/tried that we've never seen before. Players on Team Evil for the first time (especially new players) add an unpredictable air. To this, he responded with LG6, when he was darkfriend (Team Evil), and I was a Village-aligned Aiel-Blooded (essentially a Thug) Mayor (I'd been elected to that position). He was very unpredictable, and I ended up saving him from a lynch because I became convinced that he wasn't bad. He'd acted distraught in a PM to me and he'd voted for himself in the thread. When criticizing Eol about his Social Experiment, he said he would've gone to Claincy and I and told us what he was about to do. Coming to us would take a very large amount of trust, very early in the game, at a time when it's a little too early to trust the two players who have set themselves up as leaders and have not really proven themselves in the thread yet. Says he's not paying attention in the thread and does not want to vote for "conscience" reasons, or pull the trigger. This is not standard behavior for him. However, it also doesn't really match his LG6 evil playstyle. It is still an eliminator strategy--keeping out of the vote because you know everyone on the chopping block is innocent, and only voting for the ones who are guilty, yet also being active in discussion. (I tried this strategy in LG4). Post Cycle 1 Suspicions (these are typically more solid than the early-game ones): After Hero said he suspected me during Night 2, he immediately jumped on that suspicion with an excuse about a PM conversation I had with him explaining how Eol is likely to be a Spiked Tineye. He then emphasized that I only told him this, and not the thread in general. While, yes, I did mention this in a PM to him, I went in far more detail and length in the thread. Additionally, when Kas asked him for more specifics about this PM--namely the timestamp, since if it happened during all the discussion about Eol being a Spiked Tineye (which, it did), there was a reason for that, Ash realized that I sent him that 30 minutes after Ren posted the theory about Eol being the Spiked Tineye. He then apologized to me. What intrigues me here is that the Spiked Tineye discussion in-thread was not a brief discussion, and Ash used it when he debated with Eol after Eol posted his explanation. And then he claims to not know that it was being talked about in the thread when I mentioned it briefly in a PM (seriously. It was one sentence. A long sentence, but one sentence nonetheless). But if he knew he wasn't paying attention to the thread, why would he put so much emphasis on the fact that the PM was only to him. How would he know that I didn't also mention it in the thread (as I did). It seems like he was trying to cast suspicion on me and hoping no one would verify his claim. And then someone did. (Interestingly, Kas also died that night). Tried to exchange information with me. At first, he brought nothing at all to the table (literally. He said he had "nothing" in terms of information). I find this hard to believe, as most villagers keep at least some vague sort of notes or something. He's played enough games that I'm sure he's learned that it pays to keep notes, even if they're basic. Yet he has nothing. When pressed, he comes up with the fact that Ren is inactive. Ren is never inactive. Do I know why Ren is inactive? ....That's not information. That's an observation, and then he asks for information about the observation he's made. Still, I'm feeling kind, so I asked him what information he wants from me. And he asks why Kas died. I had just explained in the thread that I didn't know this. I could not find a connection. But here he is, asking me. He has explained this in the thread, because I did bring it up. His explanation is a little flimsy, especially since the answers to his questions about if I knew anything were addressed in my post in the thread. In the gambit Maill and I pulled on him, he said he was not a Spiked Rioter after Maill accused him of being a Spiked Soother. I've already explained this one very recently, but just to reiterate and keep everything within this post, I'll say it again. It seems to me that his brain took Maill's mentioned of Soothing, interpreted it to be "vote manipulation role" and inserted "Rioter" into it. Similarly, when he said Rioter in his PM to me, I did not read it as Rioter, until Wyrm brought it to my attention that Ash was claiming he'd been Seeked as a Spiked Rioter. I looked closer, and noticed that that is indeed what he'd said. I even went back to my emails to verify that it hadn't been changed. I think my mind did the same thing, in reverse. I saw Rioter and read it as Soother because all I was really seeing was "vote manipulation role." Joe placed a vote on me early in Cycle 4, PMing me beforehand to see if I was okay with this. He wanted to see if anyone would jump on the vote. I told him to go for it, mentioning that Ash had jumped on the last suspicion of me very quickly. Less than an hour later, Ash voted for me, with fairly weak reasoning. Taken separately, these aren't particularly condemning. This is why each time Ash was confronted, I wrote it off for the most part, logging it away on my notes, and not really thinking much more of it. However, taken altogether, and things start looking more shifty. A lot more shifty, in fact. I want to emphasize that I am not saying that all of this means that Ash is Spiked. He could legitimately be a villager who is not paying attention to the thread at all. That would explain most of this. I think it's a little too easy of an explanation though. And now that he's voting for himself, I'm wondering even more. He could be a Villager. However, like I said in my first point, he did this once before: acting like the distraught villager and voting for himself, when he was on Team Evil. He saved himself last time. He might be hoping to do it again this time. I'll feel bad if he is a Villager, but not terrible. The mystery will be solved, and that's the important thing. I want to note along with this that if Ash is Spiked, Wyrm is not. During the Spiked Soother gambit, Ash was PMing Wyrm, telling him that he'd been Seeked. Ash told me what he had done, and Maill noticed that Ash was PMing someone and the only people on the PMs at the time were me and Wyrm. Wyrm has backed this up as well, independently (so, without my asking him if he received a PM from Ash), telling me that Ash was claiming to be Seeked. If they were both eliminators together, they would not be in one-on-one PM communication. They would be discussing in the doc. Therefore, Wyrm cannot be one of Ash's teammates if Ash is Spiked. Considering the suspicion surrounding Wyrm currently, I want to make that clear.

Both? I just got off work, so I'm heading home, but when I get there, I'll write up a post putting all of it down. I don't know when it'll be posted. Could be in an hour. Could be in 5 hours. My roommates and I have plans, so it depends on how fast I can write it.

Much different case. I decided very early into that game that I was going to target Aonar and Gamma with my manipulation. The only reason you came to trust me at all was because you were the messenger between Aonar and me. Aonar never told me what you were doing and you didn't either. And you notice that I didn't kill Aonar or Gamma. Because I knew they trusted me, and I wanted to mess with them as much as I possibly could. And I did. And it was great. We almost killed you Cycle 4. And then you PMed me, playing a distraught villager, saying something along the lines of "I just came from MR1 and that game was BLOODY! Can you blame me for not trusting people? That game taught me not to, because it was like everyone was a sharder! Trust no one!" What you're doing now reminds me of that--acting distraught and telling us to just kill you. It's slightly different, and sounds a little more authentic, but it's close enough that it tells me something could be up here. I do know Maill's, yes. And I did now Eol's. Yours I'm not so sure about. I know what you claimed. I don't believe you though. I think you're lying. I did not know Ren's role. I think you might have. You were in a one-on-one PM with him. But Ren isn't a factor here, because he was killed by the Coinshot, and there's no way the Coinshot is Spiked. And I've already said that I didn't know Araris' role. I'm not just voting for you based on one thing. I gave you my suspicions of you days ago. It wasn't much then, but it's grown. There have been multiple instances where you have done something suspicious. Not even circumstantial--you did something. I've never totally cleared your name. Each time, I've added more to my notes. This is just the latest point. If you want, I can list off every single thing you've done that has got my eye on you. It's a bit of a list though. One word from it. Yes. One word has brought down countries, if it's the wrong word. You're trying to make it seem like a changed vote can only be Rioter. That's not the case. Vote manipulation roles, by very definition, change votes. Soother changes it from one person to nothing. Rioter changes it from one person to someone else. It was you who defined it as Rioter. But still, I'm not saying you're Spiked just from this. Again, it's been a compilation of things, and now it's to the point where I can't ignore it any longer. The evidence is too high. Joe didn't vote for me because he actually distrusts me. He voted for me to see who was going to take the opportunity to jump on it. I was actually hoping you would, because the last time suspicion landed on me, you did it. Night 2, right after Hero accused me (wrongly) of casting the last vote. You made up evidence against me and when Kas called you out on it, you had to apologize because you realized you had nothing. And now when Joe votes for me, you jumped on it less than an hour later. If that's not being an opportunist, I don't know what is. Also, I want to come back to oscillating suspicions comment from earlier. True villagers are used to being hesitant to trust and having others trust them. Knowing that someone is oscillating between trusting them and not trusting them shouldn't come as a surprise. It might be a minor cause for frustration but it's certainly not grounds for "This person is evil, kill them!" Team Evil is much more likely to get frustrated with oscillating suspicions, because they just want the villagers to trust them, and when someone keeps going back and forth from trusting them to not, it makes them go "That's it, this person isn't worth keeping alive, because they're not actually giving us useful information!" And believe, my oscillating trust toward you hasn't been nearly as bad as it's been for Wyrm. He and I got into a semi-heated argument/discussion about it in the PM with Ren, just before Ren died. He knows all about that. And he's still working with me. Even when he knew I didn't entirely trust him, he still worked with me, because he knew that was the best way to help the village. That is a true villager. One who stays because they know they need to. Not one who sticks the leader up on the chopping block because they don't trust them. Three things here: 1. The last time I checked, stating facts bluntly didn't count as "controlling by artful, unfair, or insidious means" or "using information in a skillful way." Or maybe the definition of manipulation has changed since the last time I looked. But I don't think it has.... 2. Don't vote for someone just because someone else does, especially if you don't think they're guilty. The last part of your post indicates that. If you really don't think he's Spiked, but you vote for him anyway, what does that say about you? You're taking the coward's way out, and that's all you've been doing this entire game, Peng. You're a better player than that. I know you are. So stop voting for wimpy reasons, and say something of substance for once. 3. By this reasoning, we should've killed you in LG2 after Shiv died. Or Aonar in LG4 after he killed innocent after innocent. Or Wes and I in LG6 for the same reason. Or.....I could go on, but ultimately, there's no point. Mislynches happen. That's part of the game. When they happen this late in the game, though, the reasons for the votes need to be looked. Who here has a reason for voting for Ash and has laid their reasons out?....me. Who here tacked a vote on for a wimpy reason? ....you. And you're saying I'm the suspicious one? Interesting. Your definition of suspicious is certainly convenient.

I have the village in the palm of my hand? I think not. I've been contacted by a number of players, yes, but only a very few of whom I trust. I'm slowly working on narrowing the field on who's Spiked. My "oscillating suspicion" of you should come as no surprise. I've been oscillating suspicion on most of the players who I'm in regular contact with, but that's just a part of this game. Manipulation is such a huge aspect that I know I'm being manipulated. I just don't know where it's coming from. So yes. I've oscillated suspicion toward you. Would you like to know who else I've been swaying back and forth with? Wyrm. Claincy. Maill. Hero. Winter. Joe.....Pretty much everybody I'm in contact with right now. But in the last 48 hours, I've realized that the majority of that previously named group are good. And the ones I'm not quite certain about, I think are good, but I'm still sort of debating. Using a person's seesawing suspicion as evidence of their guilt is faulty at best. You say I "know almost everything now." Actually, I don't. I know 4 players roles, for certain. That's including my own. There are 4 other players who have claimed roles, and I believe they're telling the truth, but I don't have evidence to support it. One player is wavering between two roles, but I'm becoming more and more convinced I know which role they have. And one player claimed a role, but I'm certain they were lying, either about both their alignment and their role or just their alignment. To this, I defer you to LG6. That game should be familiar to you. You were evil in that one as well. Only 25 players in that game, and we didn't kill the first darkfriend until Cycle 5. This game had 28 to start with, and we're only on Cycle 4. So please, tell me where I'm going wrong? Why is this so different from any of the past games? Just because we didn't luck-hit a Spiked in the first 2 rounds? That rarely happens. Perhaps it would've if people would talk more, but out of the 21 players left in this game, 3 are inactive, 4-5 are quasi-inactive, and another 7 are around, but not talking much. If people would talk more, we'd be actually getting somewhere. One final thought. In all three games I've been evil, can you tell me when I've given you the impression that I would kill someone who trusted me completely? I like my mindgames, and if someone trusts me, there's nothing on the green earth that would make me kill them. I'm going to screw with their minds. You know this. Maill knows this. Joe knows this. Wyrm knows this. Every experienced player in this game knows this. So doesn't that mean that I wouldn't kill Eol? Or Kas? They're among the last players I'd kill--particularly Kas (sorry, Kas. But messing with you would be hilarious.... ). Try again, Ash. You wanted me to find a Spiked? I just did. It's you. Congratulations.

Well, I can honestly say that I am shocked that Ostrich is a villager. I apologize for sending the Coinshot after you. I will take full responsibility for that. Should've sent them after Ash instead. I mentioned toward the end of my megapost a gambit that Maill and I tried on Ash. We thought that he was a Spiked Soother, so we said our Seeker contact seeked him and saw him as a Spiked Soother. In the course of this gambit, both Maill and I were talking to Ash simultaneously, and he was responding to both of us quick enough that he couldn't have also been consulting a doc. I thought this indicated strongly towards his innocence. However, then I realized that he told me Maill accused him of being a Spiked Rioter. Maill did not. The funny thing is, when Ash said this in that PM, I didn't read Rioter as Rioter. I read it as Soother, since that's what I was expecting to see. I have a feeling that Ash did the same thing. We both saw "vote manipulation role" and interpreted it how our brains wanted to. For Ash, that was Rioter. For me, that was Soother. Interestingly, Ash claimed to be a Regular Villager. He also offered multiple times to be sacrificed for more information. This reminds me of LG6, when he was darkfriend and magnanimously suggested the villagers kill him (but he didn't say what he was). My vote is going on Ash. He was a Thug that cycle. He drew Tin, Zinc (I think; maybe it was Brass), Pewter, and finally, Iron. Yes. He was a Lurcher the night he died. I'm rather peeved about that, because I should've known he would be the target. I said during Cycle 3 that I was pretty sure the Spiked had seeked him Night 2. They had a more important target Night 3, but that, logically, leaves him for Night 4. And instead I had him lurch the Tineye who I'm not even sure that the Spiked know at this point. Well. Actually. They might now. Which means we'll probably lose PMs tomorrow. That or I'll be killed. Right now, I've only been contacted by one Lurcher, and that person has moved between lurching me and the Tineye. Unless I win the I Know You Know me and Spiked are going to play, either I or the Tineye will be dead (unless the Spiked hate I Know You Knows just as much as me and decide not to play by going after someone else). Fortunately, the information gleaned from my PMs (including who others have PMs with) has been delivered into other's capable hands, in the event of my death. Eol was the Mistborn I was referring to--at least, I'm pretty sure I said here in the thread that I'd been contacted by a Mistborn. I told two others his identity, but I highly doubt those two are Spiked. I've had my doubts about them, but have again and again been reaffirmed of their innocence--mostly due to the circumstances surrounding my trusting them. They don't make sense at all for a spiked, either because there are simpler means to do what they were doing or because it is way too convoluted for the Spiked. As I said above, I believe he was Seeked by the Spiked Seeker on Night 2. They tried to lynch him Day 2, and when that failed, he became a target. However, he wasn't the primary target on Night 3 because of Araris. So they targeted him Night 4. Also, about Araris--we had no idea he was a Seeker, so that's not information the Spiked got through me or Claincy. I actually like your analyses. They're good.

There are a few targets possible. I've got a list. I actually think I've pegged a couple spiked, but you'll see. However going after Ostrich is far too easy. The Spiked will just lurch him. Going after someone else keeps the Spiked on their toes. The Coinshot got the list. Who they picked will be revealed in a few hours.

I'd be careful, Mek. You're walking on eggshells right now with your reasoning and logic. The only "real lead" we have right now is actually Ostrich. The fact that you're tacitly defending him won't speak well of you when we lynch him tomorrow and he's spiked. I happen to trust Hero a bit. You though? The fact that you've latched onto him so much is actually kind of fascinating. Care to explain yourself more? Maybe dig your grave a little deeper? First, though, let me explain something. We have a Soothing and two Riotings. I'm 90% certain now that the Spiked have two vote manipulators. A Soother and a Rioter. The Soothing on Wyrm is the Spiked trying to implicate him. That makes sense. The Riotings though. I'm working on those. At first, I thought that Sarc's Riot was the Spiked one. Because that was the attempt to save Ostrich. But I'm actually not sure they were really trying to save him. I think they were trying to implicate as many people as they could so when he died and was discovered as Spiked, the fingers would start pointing at Wyrm and some others. Maybe Maill. Maybe Hero. Depends on which the Spiked Riot was and which the Village Riot was. The point is anyone who even seems like they're defending Ostrich at this point will have my eye on them as well as others' eyes. So just be careful.

As I've mentioned to a couple of you in PMs, I need to take a short break from the game. Nothing extreme. Just for the day. A friend pointed out to me that I've been pushing myself too hard the last few days in regards to the game, and I realized they were right. Between keeping up with everything going on in PMs and the information and then the analysis posts, plus work in real life, I've ended up getting far too little sleep the last 5 nights in a row, and I've exerted almost all of my brainpower into analyzing and I'm pretty sure I've crossed into the overthinking/overanalyzing stage. For both my own personal sake and my health as well as being the best player I can, I need to take a step back. As such, I'm going to immerse myself in other things for the rest of this day, maybe watch a movie or a tv show, play some piano or a game, or just whatever. The point is, I won't be doing the game. However, I get email whenever I get a PM, and I'll be keeping up with those. If anything urgent comes up that requires me immediate attention, I'll respond quickly. So I am still here, if needed. Before I go, I'll vote, since I need to. My vote is going on Ostrich, for the reasons laid out in my megapost: he's been the most consistently suspicious player this game.

Please read Part 1: Eol’s Social Experiment, if you missed it, as I will be referencing it in Part 3: Full Analysis. Part 2: The Lynch on Satrams The first vote on Satrams was placed by Wyrm on Sunday, at 11:04 am MST: Barely an hour later, Satrams responded. As I pointed out later, Wyrm never removed his vote. In a PM between he, Kas, Ren, and I, he said that his vote was a poke vote to see if Satrams would respond quickly. After Satrams responded, Wyrm said that his logic seemed faulty, like he’d rushed to get a reply in quick. He then suggested that Satrams could be trying to save Hero, if both Hero and Satrams are bad guys and Kas is a good guy. I placed the next vote, at 6:11 pm. First, I responded to Satrams post with this: I said a lot more, mentioning my suspicions and then wondering who I was going to vote for: Eol placed the final vote on Satrams 3 hours after I did, at 9:15, so just shy of two hours before the end of the cycle: Before Eol placed this vote, he and I discussed in a PM. He’d seen my previous mention of Kas in reference to the Social Experiment, even though I didn’t mention Kas by name. He asked my opinion on the vote, since he didn’t want Kas lynched and I didn’t either. At that point (just after I placed my vote), the lynch targets were Kas, Dom, Ash, and Satrams, all with two votes on them. However, I didn’t realize Ash had two votes, since I didn’t noticed Ament had changed his vote to red (he’d originally posted it in green). So I only gave my opinions on Ash and Satrams. Ultimately, Eol chose Satrams. I could say a lot about these three votes, but everything that could be said about them has been said about them, and the fact that all three are laid out like this, back-to-back-to-back should help you decide. As we know, the cycle ended and Satrams died. However, this data section is not going to end quite yet, because the real information is in the discussion after the lynch happened. First, we have Kas questioning 5 people, including a question for me about why I found Sart’s logic faulty. This was posted at 3:42am, and before I woke up to respond to it, Wyrm posted twice. His first post mourned that Satrams didn’t get back online and defend himself, and then he bolded Eol’s name, asking why Eol chose to go for Satrams rather than Hero, Ash, and Kas. His second post was a question to me about why I used his statement in our PM about Satrams possibly trying to save Hero, but didn’t discuss it in said PM. Both of these happened in the 5 o’clock hour. I responded to both Kas and Wyrm at 8:45, explaining exactly why I found Satrams’ logic faulty: In response to Wyrm, I realized that I hadn’t responded, but thought I had and figured I must’ve seen that PM as I was getting ready for church. After contemplation throughout the day, when I finally was able to sit down to write the post, I used it as a possibility, but it wasn’t the reason I was voting for him. I also mentioned after that that I would’ve retracted the vote had he responded--and that he was online, checking the thread, before the rollover, so he could’ve responded. Seonid and Winter voiced surprise at the lynch on Satrams. Seonid seconded Wyrm’s call for Eol to explain himself. Hero comes next, with his post based off of a faulty thread reading, where he first accused me heavily only to realize, hours later, that I was not the last person to vote, and changed it over to Eol. In the post, he talked about how close the vote was, making it a “prime opportunity” for the Spiked to control the lynch. He lists two possibilities. 1) the Spiked wanted Satrams gone the most and made it happen, in which case one of the three of us is spiked. 2) The Spiked didn’t participate in the lynch at all, which seems odd, since the vote changed enough that the Spiked had plenty of time to sway things one way or the other. He thinks the Spiked were probably paying attention near the end to make sure the lynch didn’t go poorly for them. It occurs to me that Hero has a good point here. However, that involves an examination of all three on the lynchblock: Hero, Ash, Satrams, and Kas, two of which we know are not Spiked. Because of this, I’ll exam it more in Part 3, where it belongs. While Hero’s post is directed toward me, a number of responses come through. First, there is Winter coming to me defense, saying that the other 2 shouldn’t be discounted, and really, anyone is a possibility. Ash agrees with Hero that my late vote was strange, and seems very eliminatory; however, it’s strange that I would do this. He says that I was explaining to him early on about how Eol could be a Spiked Tineye in a private PM, and that I could’ve been trying to pit Ash against him, to get him to kill an innocent. Winter worries that a bandwagon is going to form and lynching me wouldn’t be wise. Hero says that I’m more responsible for Satrams’ death than anyone else, and that if I’m guilty, Winter is the highest on his suspect list. He later retracted this post. Winter acknowledges the suspicion she’ll accrue should I be guilty. She looks back on the vote and sees that Eol was the last to vote, mentioning that correction. She posts this at 5:05pm. Hero, who was apparently at the Firefight signing at Jordan Landing that night which started at 6, didn’t post again until 9:27, apologizing for his mistake. In the intermediary four hours, many people spoke. Mek says that I’ve been active in getting everyone together in PMs and talking, which doesn’t seem like an eliminator tactic. Winter agrees, reminding everyone that Eol was the last to vote, not me. Weiry is also hesitant about lynching me, saying that while the late vote could be construed as suspicious, I’ve “suitably explained” that it was due to “outside circumstances.” He’s unsure about Eol. I defend myself, correcting Hero about the timeline, telling him to verify his facts, and saying that Eol and I had discussed the lynch before he voted. I stated again that Sart had been online and could’ve defended himself but didn’t. Kas asks Ash to explain his post about the PM conversation he had with me “early on.” Ash realized he made a mistake and that PM conversation was not, in fact, with me. He apologizes to me. Ostrich says he’s cautious about me because of how many people I’m willing to blame (for future reference, Ostrich, I am a female ), but he is more suspicious of the players who voted for Satrams. I bolded “but” because that’s a separating conjunction, indicating that the first clause is dissimilar to the second clause. However, I am one of the people who voted for Satrams. Considering what the conversation is about and has been about, this seems like a rather blatant error. Continuing on, Ostrich says those who finished Satrams off didn’t provide reasoning and he’d like to know that. Claincy says he doesn’t think I’m spiked because he doesn’t think a Spiked would set up PMs and be encouraging discussion as much as I have been. He goes on to say: After that is Hero’s apology. Eol posted next at 9:37 pm, explaining why he voted for Satrams, saying that he didn’t want Kas to go, and he had tentative links to Ash that he wanted to “see play out,” which left Hero and Satrams. He found Satrams more suspicious because of the reasons already stated. In this post, he also listed the number of people advocating a lynch, the number who seemed indifferent, and the number against a lynch. Because the number advocating was so much higher than the number against (over half for and one against), he mentions that all those people said a lynch was necessary, but nobody wanted to be the one to make the call. He called out Ash for saying that he “didn’t want to pull the trigger” even though he agreed on a lynch, and then immediately condemned the person who made the call, saying it was an eliminator strategy. He also said that if this situation had occurred at the beginning of the cycle, he would’ve voted for Ostrich, since Ostrich never elaborated on his suspicions. Hero responded to me, saying that he missed Eol’s vote and made an incorrect assumption. Eol is now at the top of his suspect list, followed by me and Wyrm. He hopes the Seekers seek the three of us that night. The night ends about an hour after Hero’s post. Kas dies. Wyrm posts about 5 hours later, at 4:01am, wondering why Kas died. He then says that he he’s suspicious of those who are suspicious of Eol. He understands why Eol and I would be suspicious, but he doesn’t understand why Hero is suspicious of him. He votes for Hero because Hero didn’t want to vote during day 1 but is now taking advantage of others who did vote. Ostrich echoes his post during the night, saying that those who voted for Satrams are suspicious because Satrams wasn’t discussed and no one provided a good reason for why they voted for him. Eol responds with a vote on Ostrich, asking who Ostrich would’ve preferred, and reminding Ostrich that since he’s looking for good reasons, Ostrich himself still hasn’t provided any for voting for Eol. I responded next, saying that I did provide good reasons--his logic was faulty and I backed that up. I mention that there are players in the past who have voted and lynched other players solely because of their gut. Those aren’t good reasoning. While faulty logic isn’t great, it’s something, and the first lynches are typically not based off solid reasoning. Hero answered Wyrm, saying that he suspects everybody; he just suspects Wyrm, Eol, and me a little more. Seonid says s/he is suspicious of Eoladdin because he voted late and determined the lynch, with weak reasoning--also saying that mine was just as weak, but that my later defense was a little more firm even though s/he disagrees with my reasoning. No vote is placed as there is already a vote there. My post analyzing Wyrm’s last post is next the next one relevant to this situation. While I spend most of it picking apart Wyrm’s post, I noted that I think the people who are suspicious of those who voted for Satrams are also suspicious because I think they’re trying to use misdirection, focusing the discussion and attention in the wrong place. One of the biggest players to blame in the lynch is Satrams himself. I repeated again that Satrams was online and could’ve defended himself--and defending yourself is a very big aspect of this game. dowanx called me out, worried that people weren’t discussing the fact that Claincy or I weren’t attacked the night before. He’s also worried that despite the amount of suspicion around me that was expressed, no ones has said anything. He explains his thoughts on the lynch. He thinks the Spiked wanted a large split could so they could control things better. I placed my vote on Satrams, hoping that someone non-Spiked would vote after and kill him. We realize that’s not going to happen, and ask Eol to place the final vote because he’s already garnered suspicion so why not use him to the last drop? Cycle ends and Satrams is dead. While he thought that Eol wasn’t spiked, he now thinks he is and that the Social Experiment wasn’t condoned. He thinks that I’m the bigger problem, so I should be lynched first. He casts a vote on me. Weiry votes for Eol, because his Social Experiment explanation “seems” reasonable, but his gut won’t let it go. Ostrich says he’s suspicious of Eol because of the Social Experiment and he’s a paranoid new player. Araris votes for Sarc because Sarc defended Hero, one of Araris’ top suspects, supporting it with only Hero’s public claims of “(supposed) innocence.” He adds on that the only person who Sarc has voted for is Ostrich, a player who was trying to piece together what Eol had done. Araris says that the idea for backstage PM-discussion was a good idea and made sense. Ostrich, at 7:08 pm says that he didn’t tell Winter or Maill which role he was accused of being until he knew what they were accused of being. He says he’s not mostly lost his suspicions on Eol since he’s shown a lot of reasoning for being a villager. One thing here: Eol hadn’t posted since the last time Ostrich posted. In fact, Eol had only posted once since the cycle began and it was only a post questioning why Ostrich was so gung-ho towards Eol. The last time Eol actually defended himself was during the night cycle, almost 22 hours prior to Ostrich’s post here. I’m positive Ostrich read through the night cycle, since he reiterated his post during the night, wanting “good reasoning” from the people who’d voted for Satrams. And now, suddenly, his views on Eol are different, even though Eol hasn’t posted anything to have prompted that change of opinion. Moving on, at 7:34 pm Claincy said that he’s uncertain about Eol, and even though Eol’s not the most suspicious player in the game, he’s tempted to vote for him anyway, just because of the information gain that will happen if we lynch him, regardless of alignment. And that’s the last post I collected, mostly because I could continue putting quotes down extending through to today, because we’re still talking about this issue, at least in part, but ultimately, there’s not much reason in going further past this post, because most of points of discussion have been talked about by this now (as in this post by Claincy), and everyone who participated in it has talked, and their stances are fairly well-known (especially seeing it all back-to-back like this). Part 3: Full Analysis And now for the hardest part. I said we wanted to take special note of Ostrich, Wyrm, Ren, and me after the first part. Obviously, we no longer have to worry about Ren, so I’m going to drop him, but add on one player to replace him, due to things in Part 1. Ash. The reason on here is his flip-flopping response to Eol’s experiment. I’m not too particularly worried about it, since it makes sense, and that’s why I didn’t make note of him initially. But with Ren gone, I want to keep the options open. I’ve already discussed Ostrich’s PMs and the manipulation I’m certain went on there, particularly in the PM between Ostrich, Winter, and Maill. I can’t really say more about that specifically in this context, although in light of Araris’ post in which he defended Ostrich’s suggestion, there’s more. Quite frankly, I couldn’t disagree with Araris more. The backstage PM-discussion was a terrible idea, as it led to manipulation and more. PMs should never be used as a replacement for the thread when it comes to the frontstage players of such a game-relevant issue like this was. To be completely honest, the fact that Araris defended Ostrich made me slightly suspicious of him for a time, but then I decided it was more probable that Araris was simply being manipulated. However, in light of Araris’ role, I’ve had to look a little closer. First of all, I want to point out that we have no idea (or at least I don’t) who Araris seeked. I’m betting, based on this post, he at least tried to Seek either Hero or Ostrich on Night 2. Most likely Hero, since, as Araris notes, Hero is his top suspect, and why wouldn’t Araris Seek his top suspect? However, I notice that he uses the phrase “supposed innocence” in that post, which indicates to me that he hadn’t Seeked Hero. He used a similar phrase to me in a PM. He was in contact with a “reported Soother,” which, now that I know he’s a Seeker, tells me he hadn’t Seeked that person. He was going off of what they said. What does this mean though? I don’t really know, to be honest. As I said, I would assume he Seeked Hero, but if he did, he must’ve gotten an inconclusive result, which can only mean that Hero was being Smoked. If this is the case, Hero is probably Spiked. The fact that Araris defended Ostrich also has me vaguely concerned, as I don’t think Araris would defend just anyone, particularly someone who had been as aggressively stubborn as Ostrich had been. Technically, it could be due to a Seeking. Or just a hunch that Ostrich was good. Or something else entirely. I’ve no idea. The point is that if he knew Ostrich was good…..well. That opens up an entirely different can of worms that leads to a Spiked Tineye, and I would really prefer not to think about that as it would mean that me and a number of other people will die. Not that I don’t expect to die eventually. I do. But….this would make it far sooner. Moving past that (and attempting to wipe it from my mind), the next thing I want to mention is Hero’s point about the Day 1 lynch with the Spiked. I mentioned earlier that I wanted to analyze it a little closer since I’d had a thought. He mentioned two scenarios. One in which the Spiked were involved in the lynch, and one which they weren’t. He thinks the first scenario is far more plausible, since it was spread out so much and they were probably keeping a sharp eye on the thread, to make sure it went their way. Now, in order for them to be concerned enough to get involved in the vote is if there was a chance for it to not go their way. Which would mean that at least one of their team (but likely only one) was on the chopping block. Well, there were only four with 2 or more votes on them: Satrams, Kas, Hero, and Ash. Satrams and Kas are confirmed innocents, so the Spiked were surely not interested in that, except as a direction to steer the vote, in case it didn’t go their way, if Hero is correct. I have strong reasoning to believe that Ash is not Spiked, thanks to some help from Ren given less than 6 hours before he died (which I will discuss in a bit). Which leaves…..Hero. It seems odd that Hero would mention something that could come back and incriminate him if someone followed the logic through, if he is in fact Spiked. But it’s not the strangest thing that’s happened in these games. Still, I’m not going to overanalyze that. I’m just pointing it out. Next up is what happened after Hero posted that post about the scenarios (which is the post where he misread the thread and accused me for being the last vote on Satrams). I find it very curious that both Ash and then Ostrich jumped on the chance to cast suspicion my way. Ostrich’s is more interesting than Ash’s, though, because by that point in time, Winter had mentioned multiple times that Eol was the last to vote, and Ash had just barely apologized to me for making a mistake about the PM conversation (which I’m assuming he had with Ren). Yet right after that, Ostrich says that I’m suspicious. His reasoning is even more curious since it’s based on how many people I’m willing to blame. This is interesting because by that point in time, to my knowledge, I’d only said that I was suspicious of Ostrich, Ash, and Winter (other than Satrams, who I voted for soon after I said that, and Eol, who I said I was no longer suspicious of). Considering that there are 5-6 Spiked, saying that I suspect 4 people isn’t that extreme. Especially since none of those suspicions at that point in time were very large. Side comment here: I have a feeling my brain is not in the right mindset to do a great analysis. There’s been a fair bit of information gained today and I think my brain is at *mindblown* level right now as it tries to work through everything, piecing it all together. With that in mind, I’m going to say that these things bear more thought: Thread Mis-Reading (by--at least--Ash, Ostrich, Hero, and Wyrm). Could be intentional, could be innocent. Dowanx’ argument about me and Eol in the possible Spiked situation is awfully similar to Hero’s breakdown of the scenarios. Not sure what to make of this. Could be Spiked collaborating in doc and feeding off other’s ideas--but that seems like an easy way for things to come back and bite you--or it could be someone using an idea they agree with from the thread (like my usage of Ren’s Spiked Tineye theory). Dowanx’ errors in his argument--namely that he says there’d been a lot of suspicion placed on me, when in fact two of the three that had expressed a large dose of suspicion toward me apologized for it because they realized they were incorrect, due to misreadings. Not sure how one could miss Hero’s struck-through paragraphs in which he condemned me. Ostrich’s stubborn attitude and sudden change of heart toward Eol And finally. I mentioned a bit ago that Ren gave me some help that helped me figure out about Ash. He wasn’t intentionally giving me the information. Let me explain the situation: Ren, Wyrm and I were in a PM (Kas was in this PM until he died). We’ve had this PM going since the first night cycle. A couple days ago, right at the start of the night, I accused Wyrm of being Spiked. He and I got into a lengthy discussion, during which I realized that I was severely overcompensating because of how desperately I don’t want to get stabbed in the back by him. I admitted this to him, and after that, things got better. While I still believed he was probably Spiked, I knew that a vast majority of that belief was based off of biased feelings, so I couldn’t trust them. We started talking about various suspicions, mostly Ash. Wyrm asked if he should contact Ash, and then mentioned it was weird that Ash hadn’t contacted him, since he usually does at the beginning of the games. I told him sure. He relayed to me what Ash was saying and everything was good. I was starting to trust him. I even started a one-on-one with him, because I was suddenly not sure about Ren, if Wyrm really was good. We continued using both PMs for a time. Sometime just after 6 pm MST yesterday (Thursday), Ren caught up on the massive length of replies we’d added to that PM. He questioned Wyrm about the lack of contact with Ash. Apparently, Ash contacted Wyrm night 1, asking Ren about his suspicions, and Ren said we should wait til the night is over. Ash said that he told Wyrm the same thing. While Ren wasn’t entirely sure what Ash meant by that, since he was going off-topic for bit, the fact is, he’d mentioned Wyrm implying that he was in contact with Wyrm as well as with Ren. Wyrm responded, after Ren was dead, that he had not had any previous contact with Ash before he contacted him from our conversation. Now, obviously, someone here is lying. Ren says Ash told him he was in contact with Wyrm cycle 1. Wyrm says Ash was not. Do I know the point to lying about this? Heavens no. But I do know that Ren has no reason to lie, and no villager has a reason to lie. I also know that Ren gave Wyrm the timeframe in which to be looking for this message, so it should be easy to find. Today, Maill and I contacted Ash. I’d thought that he was Araris’ Soother for various reasons. I was dead-wrong about that fact, but due to the nature of the contact, I can say that I’m nearly certain that he’s a Villager, basing it solely off his responses and the quickness with which he responded. However, to be sure, I asked him when his first contact with Wyrm was. Ash had no idea about any of this exchange, and I was very curious about his response. He said 27 hours ago (this conversation took place just after 5pm today, MST). I paraphrased Ren’s comment, giving him a timeframe just like Wyrm had had. He found the message in question. He’d missed it before because he was on mobile and the message didnt’ show up in the recent PMs, and he’d forgotten about the conversation because it died off almost instantly and he hadn’t sent a new one until after he’d been lynched. This told me that Wyrm was lying. You may think this is a trivial thing to find him suspicious over--lying about being in contact with someone at a given time. But lying is still lying, whether it’s about something trivial or something huge. I’d say the trivial lies are some of the biggest tells, too--since those are the ones that villagers really have nothing to gain from lying about them. But Spiked? Lie about enough here and there and you can manipulate someone into distrusting someone else. Into accusing them of being a Spiked Soother. Into saying that your Seeker contact Seeked them, when the Seeker didn’t, just to see what the accused says. Subtle manipulation can get a person to do a lot. And that’s exactly what just happened. Now, this makes me question some things. In Seonid’s analysis, Scenario 3 is the one where Eol is a Villager and Wyrm is Spiked. I think that’s the scenario we’re at. It makes the most sense, considering. However, it’s practically a guarantee that the Spiked have a Mistborn at this point. I also believe they have a Seeker and a Smoker, as well as a vote manipulator (probably a Soother, but it could also be a Rioter). I also believe that no matter how big of a troll Meta is, he’d make the balance between the powered v. unpowered equal for both teams. We know there are Regular Villagers. Kas is one. I know of two others. I’m inclined to believe that there is one Regular Spiked and only one. That’s 5 roles on Team Evil, and there could be a 6th. If there is, I’d be willing to bet it’s Lurcher, although I suppose it could be a Thug. I feel like having a Thug, Mistborn, Seeker, and Smoker, all on one team though is a little over balanced, although I guess it depends on who is on the team. Still. I don’t think there’s a Mistborn and a Thug. Which means Wyrm would be the Spiked Mistborn. This is all said, I’m not sure about lynching Wyrm willy-nilly, since I suppose he could’ve just been mistaken as to his contact with Ash. Maybe. Possibly. Or maybe he deleted the PM? I don’t know. And that’s why I’m bringing it up here. I’m also not voting yet, since I’m not sure if I should vote for Wyrm or Ostrich. Or maybe Hero. Or someone else entirely--heck, maybe the Tineye I’m now worried is Spiked. I’m hoping we can discuss all of this (with far more discussion than has gone on today) so we’ll know better what to do. We have less than 24 hours. Almost 21 now. One last piece of information: I’ve been contacted by a Coinshot. This Coinshot says they killed Ren because they thought he was Spiked. They saw Ren posted more before the game than during, and thought it meant he was discussing things in the spiked doc. Additionally, Ren’s posts weren’t particularly helpful (in the Coinshots opinion). Seemed they were trying to either confuse us or rile us up. The Coinshot apologizes for this mistake.

This is possible; however, if it happened, it's not because I'm in contact with one and asked them. The only people I asked to help were Claincy and Maill, and Claincy didn't get online in time to. And we know what Maill did. To my knowledge, I'm not in contact with any vote manipulators....

Okay. This took far longer than I’d anticipated, although I did collect a lot more data than I a did last night, so that probably has something to do with it. I’d apologize to everyone--but especially Araris--for the wall of text you’re about to get. Fortunately, there will be a lot of quotes to break it up. Does that make it better? There are two situations I’d like to focus on. Eol’s Social Experiment and The Lynch on Satrams. I’ll mostly be paraphrasing what people say, unless I want to make specific mention of their wording or bring special note to a certain part of the post. Regardless, all links to the original posts will be given. Eol’s Social Experiment The first evidence of Eol’s Social Experiment began with this post by Winter at 6:37 am MST on Saturday. Kas responded 3 minutes later with an explanation about the seeker role and such, and Winter followed up at 6:43 with a little more information about the situation: Renegade responded almost an hour after that: And Winter, 2 minutes later. I’d like to point out that she has been extremely reasonable and rational up to this point. She didn’t jump out and accuse Eol, but she brought it up for discussion in the thread, asking questions and divulging information, but not revealing too much. And the responses, particularly that by Ren, were good. Wyrm responded at 7:56 am MST. The pertinent part of his post is the first paragraph: The rest of his post emphasizes the fact that there are no safe roles in the game so we need to be wary of Seekers. This is a very valid point that still holds up now. Back to the quoted part though. This initially seems like a reasonable point, and it is. However, looking at it with a little more knowledge on the situation as it unfolds later, I find it interesting that without know who did it and what exactly was done, much less an explanation on the part of the person, Wyrm says that “they’re almost certainly a manipulator,” because no one on our side could possibly do this. For the most part, that’s right. But crazy Villager-led gambits happen (like Gamma’s gambit against Joe in LG3). Not often, but they do. I find it interesting that before any more information is here, he says this. Another point here is that by saying that the person is almost certainly an eliminator, it sets things up at least a bit for this post by Ostrich, posted less than 10 minutes later. It’s the wording here that intrigues me, “accused” and “suffered,” when he could use far less provoking words. Add to that the fact that he wants to take the whole discussion about it into PMs and I’m concerned. I understand if they just want to make sure they were all accused by the same person and accused of the same role. But why must they have further discussion than that? Wouldn’t it be better to discuss that fully here in the thread? Behind scenes makes it much easier for someone to manipulate others, turning reasonable suspicion into “Let’s kill who did this.” And I have reason to believe that’s exactly what happened. But before we get to that point, let’s carry on. There’s are a few questions brought up by Mek, Wyrm, and Maill about the pseudo-Seeker. Mek’s post was about 3 hours after Ostrich’s, at 11:16 am MST, with Wyrm’s at 11:26 am, and Maill’s at 1:10 pm. Then Maill posted again at 1:42, voting for Eol and revealing him as the person behind it and wanting to know why he’s fishing for roles. Less than a minute later, Ostrich also responded with a vote on Eol, not having seen Maill’s post, but deciding that he’s going to keep his vote on Eol. He also mentions that Eol’s been asking about the Tineye specifically. Lord Pifferdoo replies 3 minutes later, mentions that he’s not sure what exactly Eol is trying to do but that the message was rather blunt. Wyrm responds at 1:57 pm, wondering why Eol would contact people like this, but that he won’t vote for him yet as he would like an explanation. Ren thinks that if Eol is spiked, he’s trying to get some of those 5 to be trusted, but Ren isn’t sure how expects to get away with all of it. Ostrich, at 2:43 pm, echoes Wyrm’s call for an explanation from Eol, before the votes are finalized. Renegade, at 4:16 pm, says that he thinks Eol is a Spiked Tineye. I’d quote this one, but it’s rather long. The point is that there are some discrepancies with it, in the light of the knowledge we learned after this--like that far more players were contacted than we’d initially thought. He also acknowledges that this is “awfully early” for the Spiked to “pull this kind of stunt.” Claincy, at 4:45 pm, says that he doesn’t think Eol is spiked. The gambit probably isn’t likely to bear any fruit, and to paint a target on yourself just on the chance you find a Tineye isn’t a great plan. He mentions that team factor in planning with Spiked and how, if Eol was Spiked, his team would’ve discouraged it. He acknowledged that if Eol is a Spiked Tineye, it’s possible but it’s a “rather brash and risky action,” and ultimately, Claincy thinks Eol isn’t, but that feeling isn’t certain. At 5:21 pm, Jain said he was also contacted by Eol, but that Eol said the messages were an “icebreaker.” Jain thinks that because Eol hasn’t stepped forward to defend himself, he seems “awfully erratic, if not suspicious.” This “icebreaker” comment was backed up 40 minutes later by Weiry. I’d like to bring particular mention to these two comments, since both of them substantiate Eol’s statement that this was a social experiment. They were an “icebreaker” meant to start conversation, although admittedly, icebreakers should relieve tension, and this did quite the opposite. Still, it is a way to start a conversation, particularly in these types of games. Seonid posted at 6:16, worried about the bandwagon on Eol. S/he would like a day 1 lynch with more info, and it doesn’t seem like we’re likely to get one by lynching Eol, whether he’s Spiked or not. Winter returns to the thread at 6:23, about 11.5 hours after her last post in the thread, saying that she is “convinced” that Eol is an eliminator. However, she’s not going to vote for him, as she doesn’t want to be part of a bandwagon. This post intrigues me, despite it’s shortness. The last time she posted, she was reasonable. She was rational. She was discussing. She was suspicious, but she wasn’t so certain as to need a lynch. What changed? ….We don’t know. She was in PMs that entire time. But her stance is a quite a flip. I’m certain she was manipulated. The next post was me, at 6:47. I mentioned that there were only two votes on Eol, so not a bandwagon and that he hadn’t defended himself yet, probably because his plan was working out exactly like he wanted. I then backed up Ren’s idea of the Spiked Tineye and explained it a little more, saying that there were a couple who bit on Eol’s PMs. Ren posted at 7:24, not knowing what to do but that even if he is a Tineye, we might not want to lynch him. However, if we do, we’ll gain some information about who to trust/who not to trust depending on his alignment. Seonid, at 7:36, needs to think because I had “disturbingly good reasoning” (of which, I’m not proud of, by the way), and find Eol more suspicious now. S/He doesn’t want to vote yet, but they’re leaving the option open. The fact that Eol’s been online but hasn’t defended himself could be telling. Eol finally arrives, at 8:16 pm. He apologizes for not replying and gives the reasons why--he’s either been asleep or at work, so he’s checked the thread, but hasn’t been able to respond. He’ll respond shortly. In the time he’s writing his response, Mek, Araris, and Seonid post. Mek says that while it’s a “pretty dumb strategy” for an eliminator to stick their neck out like that in sending a bunch of “scary-looking PMs,” the “nature of his inquiry is suspicious.” Tineyes are better left anonymous. He votes for Eol. Araris doesn’t think killing Eol is imperative as he doesn’t have a dangerous role if we’re right about him being a Tineye. Plus, the spiked probably have an emotional allomancer. Seonid says that s/he wants to hear the defense before deciding about the innocence. Eol’s explanation. Posted at 9:04 pm. First, he listed the players contacted, and the times the messages were sent. He then listed the players not contacted and provides reasons for why (either intimidation or he couldn’t find them in the messenger). Emphasis mine. What he says is true: a lot of players place value on past behaviors and play styles. That’s fact. That’s part of the reason a lot of people have remained silent in this game, because they feel they don’t have much to add. I don’t think that’s a good thing. Eol came up with a way to somewhat close the gap and put him in a position to participate better. He acted on it. Foolish, yes. He didn’t expect it to bear fruit (which he acknowledges here, and many others acknowledged. And, in fact, only one PM did bear fruit in the form of a bite. So he was mostly right). Then comes some discussion about it, from Mek and Araris with Eol responding to them. Ash debated with Eol about it, with Ash insisting that it’s more logical for Eol to a Spiked Tineye, since he didn’t continue talking to gather more information. Ash laid out a better way to do the plan, involving Claincy and I beforehand. Eol replied that Ash is being to paranoid and while short answers may only provide a starting point for the profile, other people may have been more talkative. He didn’t think it would be discussed as much in the thread as it was. Ultimately, in the course of all this, Araris, Newan, Joe, Claincy, Wyrm, Ash (who was swayed by the debate they had), dowanx, me, and Mek (due to a comment I made about this) were convinced at least enough to say he probably wasn’t spiked, although different people had varying levels of suspicion remaining on him. Winter retained her suspicions on him, but declined to vote. Kas stated both sides of the issue, equally. And Ostrich, who was called out by Wyrm, initially removed his vote after saying he didn’t like the trolling attempt and is a new player and paranoid. Wyrm responded to him, admitting such a tactic could be worrisome. Ostrich later voting again for Eol, without providing any other statement that “I still have my suspicions on him. I questioned him as to the nature of those suspicions, but he did not respond. In the midst of this, with about 23 hours left in the cycle, Kas asked us not to focus so much on Eol, since we still need more open discussion. For the most part, most of us who were active ended up agreeing with Eol. The biggest outlier is Ostrich. But that’s not surprising, since he initiated a PM, keeping relevant discussion out of the thread, and when he noticed that the other two people in the PM with him were suspicious of Eol and therefore easy to sway more, he pushed hard on a lynching, despite all his claims in the thread about wanting to wait for an explanation. He has also never provided more details as to his suspicions outside of reminding us, almost like a broken record, that he’s a new player. Besides Ostrich, notes should be taken of Renegade, Wyrm, and myself. Renegade for being the first to mention the Spiked Tineye idea. Wyrm for circumstantial evidence which ties him to Ostrich (mostly in the form of his first post setting up Ostrich’s call for PMs and also the vote on Ostrich and near-immediate removal), and my usage of Ren’s Spiked Tineye Theory to persuade others to Eol’s guilt before giving him time to post. ----------- I’m seriously running out of time. It is now 10:25, and the rollover is at 11. I’m going to post this all right now, and start on The Lynch on Satrams to post tomorrow. I’m sorry this isn’t all of it. I’m trying to do as thorough of a job as I can. And I know there’s not much actual analysis in this section. My plan is to do full analysis on both parts, connecting them together and all of that, after the Lynch on Satrams section. Again, I’m sorry this isn’t everything I said it would be. I wasn’t able to start until I got off work, which wasn’t until 5, so I started at about 5:30 or so. Basically, I’ve been working on this for 5 straight hours. No joke. My neck hurts, my back hurts, my eyes are starting to hurt, my brain sort of hurts, and I’m very tired. You’ll get the rest after I get some sleep. (And, technically, work again. >> )

Maill voted Wyrm because I asked for help in saving Eol. I'm pretty sure neither of us expected emotional allomancy, and particularly not emotional allomancy in the way of saving Eol. I haven't had time to focus on what exactly that means yet since I've been at work all day, and the rollover happened as I was going to sleep.

I just spent the last two hours typing up a huge analysis post for the situations that people are focused most on Eol for. The Social Experiment and The Lynch on Satrams. Unfortunately, technical problems happened, and I happened to lose all of it. It's way too late in the cycle for me to type it all back up and collect the information. However, I'd like to make a request. Those who have votes on Eol and can change them (so Peng and Araris, since Wyrm is asleep) I appeal to you to remove your votes. I also appeal to the Village Seeker to Seek Eol tonight. I'm sure there is someone you trust enough to give the information of your seeking to. I really do not think it would be wise for us to lynch Eol. After collecting all the relevant posts in those two situations, I've seen who is being manipulated, and I have a fair idea of who is doing it. If you give me some time (not tonight. I need to get some sleep tonight, since I've gotten far too little the last 3 nights, and it's starting to take a serious toll on me), I will show you what I've found. One day. That's all that I ask. If you're not swayed, kill me tomorrow in the lynch. There's one main thing about this game. People make mistakes--most often the villagers. But we can learn from those mistakes. We do. It's just when. Hopefully before we do too much damage. If you kill Eol, there's no going back from that. You'll have let the Spiked manipulate you. Don't give them that power. This may seem heavy-handed. It is. And I understand it's going to make me seem suspicious. That's fine. I've never stuck my neck out this far for someone, but I am certain that he's innocent and we do not want to kill him. There are other ways to confirm him. Let the Seeker do their part. Please.

Um. I'll have to go back and check my PM with him to make certain, but I don't think I ever said Kas was suspicious of Wyrm. I said that Ren told Kas that Ren was suspicious of Wyrm, because Wyrm was focusing a little too much on the inactives and Sart (Day 1, before Sart died).

A few different reasons. One, I think his explanation made sense, even if his course of action wasn't the wisest. I don't believe in lynching players based purely on a stupid move. He was a good player in the one game I played with him, even if I didn't interact with him at all and I think he has potential, so I'm not about to say that he's not worth anything to Team Good if he's not spiked, just because he did this. Two, I honestly think the Spiked were trying to set him up. Looking at it in that light, the situation makes a lot more sense to me than the other way around, because I really can't see a spiked team ever coming even close to condoning something like this. Maybe I'm totally and completely wrong about that. But if Eol is Spiked and was intentionally trying to get himself lynched, it makes no sense for him to come back and give such a hardy defense of his actions. We'd be in a lot more of an uproar right now after lynching him and knowing for a fact that the Spiked had that much information. Plus, we'd be trusting some Spiked a bit as well, because I was willing to write off Mek, Piff, Ostrich, and Winter as all being Villagers since they were the first to come out and try to work through the situation so openly. And I think Ostrich at least is Spiked. Three, Kas kind of trusted him. At least, I'm nearly certain that's who Kas was referring to. In one of my PMs with him, he said there were only two players he kind of trusted. I was one of them. And since he came to me to defend Eol (even if it was only to tell me that Eol had told him about the experiment before he did it) I'm pretty sure Eol was the other one. Kas is one of the most paranoid players in this game. He knows he's prone to trusting people, so he tends to overcompensate, particularly for players like me, Wyrm, and Ren. Gaining his trust is rather difficult. Granted, I haven't had to do that as an eliminator, but I'm fairly certain I should just avoid Kas altogether if I'm an eliminator. Far safer that way, even if he presents an interesting challenge. The fact that he trusted Eol, even if it was just a little bit, is another mark in Eol's favor. And since Wyrm requested that I reveal the person who asked, I will, but only because I want more discussion on this, and I feel this is the only way to gain it. I'm still uncertain about whether he was trying to find out exactly how much I knew or if he was an innocent villager trying to decide for himself what happened. Ash was the player. For now, my vote is staying on Wyrm.

Can you please explain how it fits that he told Kas what he was doing? If he was going off on his own without any advice from his fellow spiked, why in the world would he let someone else know who was not his own teammate? Here's how I see the Eol situation: Eol wanted to be of use and try to peg some people by seeing how they reacted. I'll bet he was trying to match things up with past games for the players he could as well. He wasn't expecting to be discovered as fast as he was, but people started discussing it in the thread. The first person to hint towards it was Winter. However, her couple of posts weren't a direct "Hey, this happened to me, what do I do?" It was a "What do you do if this happens?" It was more hypothetical, but those who were messaged as well would know what she meant. Then we have Ostrich who gets on and directly calls out about false accusations and requests people to get in touch with him and Winter to talk about this. And it all spirals from there. That's how the role reveals started getting out and everything hit the fan. Now, if Eol is a villager as I really think he is, the Spiked know this. When they got his PMs, they saw it as a way that they can totally spin the situation to string up someone. Make him look incredibly suspicious. Blow it out of proportion. Was Eol's experiment unwise? Yes. Should he have thought more about it? Yes. Did his explanation make sense? Yes. Did the situation blow up a little more than it should've? Yes. Was information revealed to more people than Eol? Yes. Is that Eol's fault? No. That's ours. That's on our heads. But who do you think was there, subtly encouraging the role reveals? The Spiked, almost assuredly. I've been evil enough times to know that if I had a chance like this, there's no way I'd let it pass me by. You bet I'd try to make people suspect an innocent. He all but offered himself to the Spiked saying "Please, set me up to be lynched!" The only reason he hasn't been is because most of us are trying to be as level-headed as possible. Could he be spiked? Yes, he could. Could he be innocent? Yes, he could. Which alignment makes more sense, given the entire situation? That he's a villager and the spiked took advantage of the opportunity he presented.

I received an interesting PM last night from a player requesting information regarding why Kas died. This request was in the form of an information exchange. They give me their information, I give them mine. However, they did not bring anything of real value to the table. I still asked them what piece of information they would like. They could've picked anything at all. But they picked that. To give some reference of time, this PM came through after I'd posted in thread saying I couldn't find any connection. And we all know I've been the only one saying that the Kas kill wasn't a threat kill. Yet this question leads me to think that someone else agrees. If they agree, why aren't they saying anything in the thread? Wouldn't it be better to have two or more minds working to find the connection? After all, if it's a connection kill and we find the right link, we've found an eliminator. The only reason I can see for why this person isn't saying anything vocally, but still asked for this information is because they wanted to know exactly what I had. Who would this information benefit the most? Well, if I'm right about it being a connection kill, that information will definitely benefit the Spiked most of all, because it would tell them how close I am to finding one of them. I'm not sure I want to reveal this person's identity quite yet. However, two of my trusted sources know who it is, so if I die before I'm able to, one of them can release it. Mostly, I wanted to see what people think about this. The person who asked it is under a fair bit of suspicion from a variety of people. And to be honest, I'm tempted to switch my vote from Wyrm to this person, but I'd like to hear thoughts first, since the request could be an innocent one. So, what does everyone think?