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Kasimir

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Everything posted by Kasimir

  1. With regard to your second question - he may also have made a bet with me the Village would not vote him if I didn't get involved and he argues it's kind of true given: A. I got enough people to stick to the nonsense TBB train that should not have been a serious option at this point of the Village's tactical situation. B. I had to breadcrumb Araris into going for the vote. I'll give it to Drake: he has the best gambits and wins with style.
  2. A. What makes you think he didn't? Let's just say there was a near thing, an intervention from me and Drake also has a sense of fairness. Which adds to why I really don't want my bro dead despite also knowing it's...not likely to work out. B. Drake lives spicily and Drake has a plan. Look. You either think I'm Village or not. And if you think I'm Village, then you know I think lying to the Village is a pretty bad idea. Which means that the fact I'm dead serious about this and that Drake isn't denying being Aut either from the very start of this cycle clearly implies he decided to openwolf. And the fact he's openwolfing is the main reason I've stopped hiding he's Aut. This is also further backed up by my behaviour because I've never really had any constant reason to suspect Drake - I just refused to lie to the Village by V!reading him. If you don't think I'm Village, I can't really help you there at this point, to be honest. Let's say we bracket the question of whether Drake is Aut. What is uncontroversial at this point is still: Drake is Odium That kill should have made him Intent Convert He still chose a target that should not have been a shot that any reasonable V!vig would have picked, which still indicates he no longer thinks of himself as being aligned with Village interests. The Village can choose to act on this, or it can choose to hope that Drake made a mistake. IMO if you have a vig that is making a control kill against the Village rather than an actual suspect kill (and remember, you yourself V!read DeTess last night!), then you still have a problem that you and the vig need to resolve.
  3. I did my best I don't particularly care, to be honest. This is a gamethrowing move right here, but I actually also want Drake to win, so I consider my duty to you discharged. I have warned the Village: what the Village chooses to do with my warning, including throwing the game, is on them. I'm done here.
  4. He's quite probably Evil. But from an objective perspective, the DeTess shot is an explicit warning that Drake was willing to make a kill that runs counter to Village interests. I repeat the point that in no world running his standard/reasonable Village play would Drake have taken that kind of hero shot on DeTess as compared to say, Araris. It should be crystal clear to any player paying attention that this is a sign that Drake no longer sees his interests as coinciding with the Village's. Failure to respond to this on the part of the Village or to retaliate by voting him out or attempting to vote him out is going to result in a tough road for the Village, and I frankly feel it's well-deserved. I would argue that even if it's a tie, you are probably not well-served offing yourself just because the rest of the Village and Szeth doesn't seem to appreciate this tactical reality. The tie will be very costly because it gives Drake a free tempo to shoot whoever he wants tonight (no real prediction there but it won't be Araris! Possible TJ or Stick or Szeth.) [Even if you are Evil, and AC, I would argue you have to see that unless Drake commits to a joint win with you, your prospects are actually pretty awful if he's not voted out here.] But I've said my piece. It's a frankly terrible move from Szeth and in any world where I didn't know what I did, I'd actually be forced to ask if Szeth were Evil or being played by Drake here. It's a move IMO that the Village will regret because your PtV shrinks over time and is dependent on whether Drake feels nice enough to let you. Drake has the power at Night. The only time the Village has the power is during the Day. The longer you wait, the more players you lose and the more you are dependent on AC votes, and AC, if they are smart, will try to broker their own deal with Drake. IMO that's why there's no choice but to move on him. I know that. And still I can't make myself vote him, so I guess I'm just as culpable. Edited to add: The tie will be very costly, but a tie and free tempo to Drake is better than giving up a life and also free tempo IMO.
  5. I'd sooner believe the sky fall. If you are Evil, the why should be very obvious to you. If you are Village, re-reading Roshar very, very carefully should tell you why, even beyond all the reasons I've cited to you. (I'm keeping this secret out of respect but it's been pretty damned obvious, not sorry.)
  6. I won't vote you. But I can't vote Drake. I know it's the correct strategic option here but I cannot bring myself to do it and won't. TBB
  7. Walin isn't. Fae and Turtle are. @The Bald Brandon: The terse, unemotional reply as objectively as I can make it: -Drake real problem here. Problem is not his Avatars but the fact he has a NK. There is no way in hell one reasonably flips DeTess if one wasn't planning to be anti-Village - DeTess is a paranoia shot, not a real shot. Drake knows better and has better V!play - this was a deliberate control shot. -I still don't want to hurt Drake and this is not helping. -If you let him use his NK, he can rip out the voting core of the Village before you can find the Hoidites. Hoidites really not worst problem right now. They can't vote or kill. With two players, they are not getting Shards unless the Village seriously screws up. -His votes and Avatars really are not the problem here. -I don't feel there is sufficient reason to go for you prior to flipping: <Fae/Turtle, Walin, and probably Araris.> Then you, then TJ/some mess of 'Not my problem.' -Strong case for E!Araris. D3 defensive vote from Archer when major Araris train sprang up, Archer's shifting reads on Araris (high Village for not self-pressing, sudden N3 claim would exe anyway), D4 Archer read while not defending Archer in vote. -Possibly could negotiate with Drake, IDK, or maybe it's wishful thinking. -I was basically committing to helping Drake and ignoring my wincon this cycle. It's not viable anymore. I'm sorry, but watching you self-vote and that tonal crem just broke me. I can't do this anymore. I'm leaving and Stick is replacing me. @ me if you guys need more info but it really shouldn't be this difficult and I am going to need to brief Stick. Edited to add: IMO strict order of priority: Drake + Fae/Turtle -> Walin/Araris -> Araris/Walin -> You -> TJ -> Not My Problem, Figure It Out Yourselves. I'd really rather not have to move against Drake but I think it's necessary unless you all can get him to hard-commit. Edited to add 2: Right I forgot Wiz. Treat him as interchangeable with you I guess.
  8. It wasn't a reaction test. It was me trying to square two opposing impulses, which is that I didn't want to be forced to betray Drake and to lead the Village against him, and that I was fine with a no lynch here. I do think there are E!you worlds - I just don't feel there's a compelling case to go onto you right now. I do suspect you but nowhere near the priority of needing your flip right now. The numbers aren't pretty - don't vote yourself. Remember Drake has a NK. Do you really expect him to play nice with it? I'm trying to walk a line that I can feel alright about. I'm subbing out of this game because I quite frankly had a mental breakdown about either forcing/gaslighting a player to kill themselves or betraying a player and a bro who had only ever been kind and honorable to me. I want many things. I wanted a nice, chill, RPful game. I didn't want to have to be a piece of crem who had to betray so many goddamned people this game. I wanted a game that didn't leave me crying and repeatedly apologising to Drake in the Threnody doc because there's nothing else I can do or could do after I snapped. I wanted a game that wasn't a clusterchull and that didn't leave me creating repeated clusterchulls and disappointing or hurting or letting someone down no matter what I did, and which way I chose and abusing people's trust. I just wanted a game that didn't leave me seriously questioning if I was becoming one of the worst people I knew. You want me to say what I want? I want all of that. If the Village lynches Drake this cycle, I get his Shards. I keep my wincon. If I don't Intent Convert. I essentially become a major Village vig with an extra life. That's what I was pointing out. I don't want this to happen. I don't - fricking want to be forced to choose and to let someone down no matter what. I'm tired of this. It's a mess. My player-game separation is entirely in karking pieces right now and I am briefing Stick, who is replacing me at rollover. Do whatever you want with that. I can't do this anymore.
  9. It...really isn't. I'll say this much, because I hate to see a player kill themselves for no reason. Smh I was going to sit this out, alright. Sigh. I mean exactly what I said, at various points of this game and oh god Drake is gonna give me so much hell for this: The Village cannot afford your flip. There is absolutely zero reason to go for you right now and I've implied as much. This cycle should probably be a social experiment in the Village willingness to follow me down an absolutely nonsense train that makes no sense whatsoever. I've said all along that this was a short term alliance with Aut. If you come at the king, you better not miss. Which is a way of saying that if you want to antagonise Aut and force the issue now, why vote VOCALS in particular? Why is an actual openwolfing Elim SK still alive? What are Hoid and the last AC who lack a NK and vote majority going to do to us? In general: I have hinted a third train might be a good idea. Literally, why is no one voting Drake? Araris has the right idea. You all shouldn't need me to highlight this but I actually really don't want you to die like this regardless of what I think about TJ's case on you. There is no reason not to turn on Aut at this juncture, quite frankly. Unless he gives us one. P.S. Shards go to the nearest non-Vessel on the same Shardworld. I'll give you another hint: I'm a Villager. JNV and I and Drake are on Threnody.
  10. Very spicy. Multiple impulse control problems :eyes: Possibly rabid. Did I take you to the vet yet? :eyes:
  11. Admittedly had just found it weird/easy sheep, but also, #notwrong I guess. Edited to add: Thoughts on Walin's alignment?
  12. Hmm. This is a very interesting comment Very vintage Porch Bro, too, in bloodthirst. I guess it deserves an honest answer: No, there really isn't. Make what you will of it
  13. Is there a reason you ask this and vote TBB? If TBB were Evil, Archer would know because TBB was on Roshar and Roshar was planning to gun for Archer. Bro Turtle and Fae are due to be filter-killed today so it really doesn't matter.
  14. FREAKIN' AUTONOMY THAT SHARD IS JUST CURSED >:( To be honest I don't particularly care if you're Evil. Edited to add: I suppose to put it less spicily (as much as some chaos gremlin part of me enjoys being this provocative) - it's not a priority tier in my head. Same deal as DeTess. Some layers you just don't flip until you've flipped the less likely options. I don't really see E!you as the first level priority. Will this stop me from complaining about or considering E!you worlds? Nope. Will I touch them anytime soon? Nope.
  15. Bhai, clearly the Village wants Aut to hammer them Who needs to live, amirite? Honestly this is why I'm leaning towards a third option. Meta-read of Wiz doesn't seem Evil but I guess you can vote Wiz if you really want to. Low key want to give Araris a chance if possible. I struggle to see Walin as anything but a convert, and I still think Fadran is a Choice which takes us back to the pool we need the inactivity filter to flip for us. Fadran is unlikely as you choice or an Araris choice. So where does that leave us? Still <Turtle, Wiz, TBB> if we accept the point against H!Walin. Look. Here's the unspoken problem. Let's say we find the ACs. What happens after that? You told me what you suspected Drake is playing. Alright. So what's the logical next step? We cannot afford too many casualties among the active voters because quite simply, if you burn through your active voters, you will get wrecked by the neighbourhood SK. Wiz might not be present but he's at least responsive to PMs which indicates he can be induced to vote. Edited to add: Bro my nice chill RPful game entirely died when freakin' Autonomy crashed my rave. Every. Single. Shard game. I sit back and have a chill game and then freakin' Autonomy comes in like a wrecking ball. Every. Time. That Shard is just cursed. That Shard and I have a cursed history. I just cannot even. Edited to add 2: Ok I'll be fair - it probably also has to do with the fact I struggle to sit there and watch a Village be willfully blind or do nonsense on stilts and not say something about it and if I do refrain, it's probably because I'm Evil smh. Edited to add 3: Current vc: VOCALS (1): TBB TBB (2): Kas, TJ I feel like people have checked out of the game. Smh Murderpuppy, this is what happens when you kill DeTess. She's more checked into this thread than maybe 3/4 of the surviving players right now. Edited to add 4: Like seriously: LG29: Having a nice, chill game having impersonated Araris. Autonomy: "Hi Kas I've converted you welcome to the Autonomous also btw tell us what Araris's role is." Me: "Omg screw you seriously." AG7: Ellie: "Btw im Autonomy " Me: *INTERNAL SCREAMING* Then this game.
  16. Will giving page/line reference like TBB wants violate the spirit of this rule? Sorry to hear. As the guy who had a break-up two days ago I feel this pain. H'okay. Case for V!Szeth boils down to several factors. I'll leave out why Szeth can't be on Team Khriss—since Team Khriss is functionally dead and out of this game, it doesn't matter at this point. The AC case is even more straightforward. First, Szeth pushed me in a very sincere way. I don't deny some Elims will try to put me on the table because they need options (cf. Elan D4 when I challenged her on her PoE, and Mat suggesting I would convert Fifth), but they often don't really back it up properly. I felt it was sincere because it was an extremely aggressive challenge that lasted the entire cycle and carried on into the Roshar doc. It's often very difficult to simulate distrust of a player you actually trust; if you re-read Roshar, you'll notice I essentially act as though I trust Drake despite my saying I think he's Evil. Which is a powerful suggestion the read is inauthentic. With Szeth, it's harder to fake that sort of lingering distrust, e.g. balking at the idea I would be involved in any way in the Frost chain of contact, and insisting on using Drake instead of me or Ruin to broker communication with Frost. So since it's fairly authentic, it seems to me to emerge from a Village PoV. If Szeth were AC, he doesn't really need to 'fake' distrust since he just needs me dead no matter what team I'm on. (For the record, I will state that I trust Drake to act in his own interests, which is a really powerful kind of trust especially early on in a conversion game, and works only as long as our interests are aligned. Once our interests are no longer aligned, all bets are off.) Second, there was a very aggressive late-Day to EoD train on Szeth on D3, with a maximum of five votes, including you and Archer. I had to break it up by suggesting a Xino CW as I V!read Szeth. The fact that Archer was fine with that train and I had to counterpropose a CW is IMO powerfully suggestive that Szeth is Village. And moreover, I think it is unlikely the ACs still had a conversion left untapped by N3. For me, the V!TJ case is in two parts: second voter on Archer and persistent sus on Archer. The second voter part is important because let's look back at what we know of the train and the circumstances. N3, I explicitly express my frustration with the D3 voting and say we need to vote in the vocal player bracket, and include myself and Archer in that list. D4, DeTess once again places Archer on the lynch list, and TJ seconds it, after raising Archer suspicions on N3 as well. That's a risky move for E!TJ in multiple ways: given the temperature of the thread and Night indications that we would move to more vocal players, it's pretty clear that move is going to draw flak to Archer once again. Furthermore, let's look at the supposed composition of the AC team: Fadran has gone inactive by then, and TJ has not been high on thread presence. We don't know about their final member, but it can't be Szeth, it can't be Murderpuppy, and it can't be me. If it's not you, then you're committed to their third member being in <Wiz, Walin, Fae, Turtle, Araris>, most of whom are also inactives except Araris. Giving up Archer has a pretty high associated cost because it makes the team that much more vulnerable in the thread. The second part is the fact he's just not letting go of suspicion I might be Aut, really. (Notice he mentioned he was going to return to it again until Drake claimed.) I don't deny it could be TJ faking paranoia and fully expect TJ to ape this against me one day, but for now, I think the two halves put together lead me to V!TJ. Edited to add: For context - in our play together, I've never known E!TJ to really have paranoia of me. I sometimes need a PM to read him better, but he's also often more placatory. I guess it's what he calls Elim appeasement. I'm not really getting that off him right now.
  17. Going with your read of it. But my current Wiz read is V so if we're looking in that particular PoE, I'm not willing to flip Wiz off the bat.
  18. ...Clearly I have impaired faculties of judgement when it comes to what is adorable. But just look at hoarfrost boy here: Smh bro it's Revenge of the Sith and Return of the Jedi I think Ash was just making a Nalthis joke smh >:( Unforgiveable. Smh. I think he prefers 'murderpuppy.' But don't quote me on it. Drake doesn't lose if we kill Hoid+partner. Does involve killing him eventually, but since we're functionally on the three cycle timer for JNV, I think there's time to go after the hidden enemy first. Again, my view is that JNV delayed to take out one Elim for us - we owe it to them to give them the time to finish up. They've been fairly pro-Village for a neutral. I think H!partner is possible, yeah. My D3 Araris case still stands. It's hard to make sense of his Roshar jump in an E!Araris world and his PM defense of Archer while the team let Archer die, but also feel that Fadran is a Capital C Choice that really feels like a <Turtle, Walin, TBB, Wiz> choice, italicised Wiz because I think there are reasons to meta V!read. Turtle is being flipped one way or another anyway so I am fine with having half the pool cleared. Edited to add: @|TJ| Contra what TBB says about meta, I feel like Fadran is a risky off-the-wall choice for a quiet player that requires some calculation that lying low is better. I'm not sure I really buy that TBB would necessarily go for an aggressive conversion choice because fundamentally, he does have one in Archer, and he's done fairly well with low-lying/off-meta teams before that I think he has the capacity to meta-screw. Turtle would actually be my first pick for this, but Turtle's MIA and going to die. But part of this is just me deciding to trust you/Mat on specifically your read of the D4 Archer-TBB interaction. Edited to add 2: One reason I'd also lean again Walin in that pool, except as a convert, comes down to: I'd caution against overreading into the term 'team' because this is a very new player, and it's easy to Ripple Effect them. That being said, I might be fine taking it prima facie at face value as DrakeI. was definitely quite missing Night 0 and it's also a capital C Choice to expect a first-time player to be thrown into a core faction role like Hoid. I also kind of do not know if he'd apologise to his 'team' if he were a solo converter who hadn't yet converted - it doesn't really feel like the natural thing to say. This doesn't rule out that Walin was subsequently converted, but I would be surprised if DrakeI./Walin were Hoid, given the combination of factors.
  19. I What Is there a Shard that can make time go faster What just happened
  20. Somehow I feel like taking the first action to break a ceasefire is the direct way to incentivise the friendly neighbourhood SK to stop being friendly, but y'know, that's just me. @Devotary of Spontaneity Am I allowed to quote from a doc? Does this violate the c/p rule?
  21. I'm running off the likely conversion profiles here, and TJ's posts a couple cycles back. I am not working off any PM here or any doc shenanigans. I will add asking me to answer honestly doesn't really change things because I don't really know how you'd know if I were lying. But as a policy, I try not to frick around with lying to the Village too hard if I can avoid it because it just confuses your own team more.
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