Kasimir

@Amanuensis - I am fully prepared FWIW to be called kayana or tripping as I am concerned I am deathtunnelling JNV here. I am aware of the JNV inactivity meta argument, I just feel the vote analysis has taken me here and the NKA has sliced it to this point. I'm willing to agree about TKN's natural kill meta so it must be being suppressed by someone. Recognise that this is just rehashing everything I've said but I was concerned I was overstating my confidence level. I guess I have moderate credences but also doubts.

I think there are Elim players who would have less playful a reaction - it's one of the reasons I lean Village on you, next to the Aman push! Anyway sorry was editing in during Coffee's intervention so here goes: I suppose to press the point a bit more: yesterday, Aman was asking who E!Araris teammates were. Neil hasn't really faced substantive pressure yet. Without pressure, I'd argue IDing teammates is hard. Maybe you guys can do it, but again, I am first and foremost a vote analyst by inclination which is probably why I'm more bearish on E!Aeo than most - that D1 EoD doesn't look right to me in a V/E world. I would argue that if there is even a double Elim presence in 4pool (and not say, triple, which would be possible but also unideal), the fact that Ash and Alpha barely have a pulse would strongly interfere with our ability to ID them. Again, almost none of them have come under serious threat. There was a double vote on JNV for a short while on D1, and one on Ash, but I don't know how much credence to give those given the dominance of the Archer and Aeo trains - these mostly flipped Village with the exception of Araris, but that's very little pressure which doesn't demand much of a visible response analysis can pick up. I don't think connectives strongly help here - I think we have to fall back on reads/post analysis. Happy if anyone stronger in those areas can correct me. tldr; "who are E!JNV's teammates?" ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add: Tbh I am actually willing to believe he's BranAman Sanderson, considering some of the drek he's pulled. But if not, I lowkey hope someone in 4pool is BS, because that'd help us with sorting the pool just a bit more.

^I was going to say this. I think I outlined a 1/3/3 team with TKN JNV and either Aman or Neil, moreso Aman, but I have bias don't trust my instincts Don't mind me but my response to that is legit some flavour of: "Maybe make that the problem of someone else other than the guy who spent 5+ hours crunching out analysis trying to even ID one Elim? " Which I'm pretty sure y'all weren't going to anyway, as it's probably more rhetorical, and I'm just poking fun at you guys @Amanuensis - My point is I sorta recall JNV/Aeo interactions D1 for you to read if you wanna ISO JNV. I'm really just too tired for it right now and I think just re-pivoting us back to 4pool is already Work Done on my part so someone else can take it from here while I get some sanity recovering sleep That being said, it's difficult to work with with a small pool and my instinct is Aeo is probably not a good JNV partner. Which brings us back to 4pool + Neil/Araris but not both. Agree there might be an Araris preclusion but he's just stabvoting JNV so I don't feel it's a strong one. You could argue JNV would not have left Araris in the lurch but given stated RL busy, IDK how strong that is. I do read Coffee as Village but if I'm wrong, maybe Coffee hell knows. TKN's pushing outside of 4pool makes me think he could be a partner FWIW. Ash isn't giving us anything to work with so I don't oppose pressure on Ash on principle but if our priority is to see red in the write-up, I currently feel JNV is the best route forward. Open to thoughts, comments, objections.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ If only we had something like voting and pressure generation to be able to work out potential partners, since JNV has never come under pressure since my C1 vote on them! Again, I think where I'm at rn is still that the <TKN, Ash, Alpha, JNV> pool is the place to shoot in, and JNV is the most likely candidate to have realised I was pushing V!Devo hard. I have gone back and forth on them but even my re-read notes state two things: and Aeo is soft excluded IMO. JNV's absence and Aeo's EoD absence is too much risk for them, even with a single teammate left to man the watchtower. There are some JNV/Aeo interactions I want to go back to, e.g. where JNV shades Aeo but later also has a pretty understanding view of her and Archer. If you buy the reaction test outlier analysis, I'm still back to JNV too. Alpha's so absent he's just a shrug for me at this point with maybe some meta-game reasoning teammates might ask for a PH rather than endure this but I just don't know. Suppose we just bracket Alpha for now - if he's inactive then he's an endgame problem. I think JNV could have a partner in E!Araris FWIW, can't recall about whether potentially true with Neil - I think so since I said in a V!Araris world, I could see maximum maybe E!Neil (Coffee?) and some in the quiet tier I am just going to name 4pool at this juncture. Long story short that's an analysis for any Kas that's not 0550hrs Kas. Edited to add: With TKN pushing for Neo and someone else I am just too dead tired to recall, I think TKN could be a shout too.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm back to E!JNV and I think the timing matches better. Not gonna argue with 2 though.

Why Ash?

I first banged on about likelihood of V!Devo at 2101hrs, which...sorry too tired to timezone maths, but rollover is 0700hrs for me, so do your own maths please This post is a bit long, but the Devo point is in two bullet points, frontloaded. At 2324hrs, I then make a second longpost. This time, the Devo analysis is buried in a spoiler box but still there. In response to Aeo, at 0112hrs, I once again assert V!Devo. Even then, the Elims don't necessarily need to go to the conclusion through me - Mat made the announcement at 0135hrs, and I could see Elims with TMI immediately realising what the mistake entails since Mat also states Devo caught the error. At 0236hrs, I promote Devo to the highest tier on my readslist. At 0325hrs, JNV returns and states they'll be reading to catch up. (I'll add that my initial post on the Devo issue misses Ash by a hair - Ash is on at about 2040hrs my time.) At 0457hrs, I once again remind people that Devo is most likely V so please, you have one job if I die, don't kill her. I think this is the one that caught your attention. I could go on but I think my point is amply made - I latched onto V!Devo quite a bit earlier, and both Ash and JNV were in a position to see that and potentially make a kill based on a strong perception she was going to be hardcleared. More so for JNV than Ash. They don't need to be on at EoD for this.

I was going to edit this into my post, but I think this might work: I think there's a question one can ask about how this works with my view of the NK and potential timestamps - my reply is this is pure vote analysis, but also, that's why I'm voting JNV Alpha and Ash likely wouldn't have noticed, I think, so it's between JNV and TKN. TKN has acknowledged his personal kill meta is aggressive, so requires a teammate who would override that. I can do a more extensive NKA later but it's nearly 5AM now and I have spent longer than I wanted to just hammering this out. I don't believe they needed to be on at EoD - I was adamant about Devo being cleared before that. I could see Wiz being the SK kill after calls for his shot and I'm less interested in finding the SK here. Edited to add: Specifically, I made several longposts about how Devo was likely V and how the NK could not have come from her. I think that's a shot I could see the Elims making, especially if they popped into thread briefly enough to see me hammer this home repeatedly - it doesn't require EoD presence.

Aman bro - I understand this, but I don't really want to ever go there ever since we exed Jain on the basis of being anti-Village. I get it but it left a bad taste in my mouth when we did it, and I never want to do it again. If you are green and I'm green, I defend you to the death. I'd rather request Aeo please tone it down if we're all triggering each other and ask the IM to de-escalate rather than to go there. I think killing Aeo for it given the considerations is extreme. There are meta-comments I can make about how I don't think, in general, that everyone's responses is helpful (cf. Sono and here and escalation), but I'm going to shock @Winnie the Pookla and @Elandera and especially @Devotary of Spontaneity especially in light of my repeated brawls with Coffee by saying that I don't think this thread is the time and place for it. Maybe Araris in particular will drop dead from shock and we'll get his flip right now Anyway, my analysis dump. I'm currently going to vote JNV. I am actually temporarily ignoring your questions. Sorry @Amanuensis - I realised part of my answers was my explaining why I'm critical of the train approach to NKA here and now, but that required looking at the trains, and formulating my views on them so I guess I'll approach Q1 first in a roundabout way. Remember again that I've explained why the Elims were killing Ravenclaw qua Archer voter. The fact Devo died and flipped Village validates this. (Again, let me retrace my logic. If the Elims didn't miss Ravenclaw's vote, it's very likely that Mat would have had his mistake caught in the Elim doc. The fact I had to catch the vote issue is in my view strongly suggestive that the correct counts on which to do analysis are the mistaken ones.) This means the EoD vc (or near-EoD vc) the Elims were working with looked like this: Cycle One: Here's the thing - there's high vote dispersion in this EoD, with votes stable until EoD. Recall that the main movers were: <Neil, Aman, Raven, Devo, Wiz>, which means even in an E!Neil world all the vote changers were Village. We know at least 3/5 of them were Village, indicating high E contentment with EoD. Or to put it another way: There was high vote dispersion for a significant chunk of D1. 7 active trains, at largely values of 1 with the JNV train as the outlier. 3/7 of these trains are flipped Village. This timeslice is from Cash (flipped Villager) voting on Aeo for being frantic, at just under five hours to EoD. That in my opinion entails a further claim: There was high Elim complacency near D1 EoD - no significant pressure to generate CWs, with no particular player under threat. This is backed up by, again, the fact most activity happens after the five hours to EoD mark and is, in my view, strongly Village-skewed. With the main movers were: <Neil, Aman, Raven, Devo, Wiz>, which means even in an E!Neil world all the vote changers were Village. We know at least 3/5 of them were Village, indicating high E contentment with EoD. (We can throw in Archer for six movers, but that doesn't matter here since Archer flipped Village as well.) Certainly, at the time Wiz shifted from Ash to Aeo, he thought he was breaking a tie between Archer and Aeo by killing Archer. @Amanuensis - This is the one thing that draws me short wrt an E!Aeo team. Based off this, where could partners be? Wiz changed in the last ten minutes, meaning if E partners were around, they were fundamentally okay with rolling the dice on Aeo. This was the landscape you, Neil, and Ash were okay with (possibly Araris.) Araris I know is absolutely okay with risk and would likely never have swapped at all. Ash was second train and probably didn't want to cause a flashwagon situation regardless of his alignment. Neil actively keeps calling for Ravenclaw voters and expressing anxiety about the tie, so I guess there's some potential there - he really can't swap onto Archer given his declared V!read, and Ash making it a 1/3 (Ash/Neil/Aeo anyone?) or 2/3 might not be much better. Not sure. Option B: <Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN> - Harsh when Alpha and JNV were both MIA, and Aeo had self-voted and couldn't be around. (Ngl if I were her E!partner I'd be so mad at that stupid vanity self-vote for causing me an EoD heart attack.) At most one from here I think. I think it's possible to postulate an E!Aeo here, you just need a partner in <Araris, Neil> (two? IDK this is purely vote-related) and maybe a maximum of one in <Alpha, JNV, Ash, Coffee, TKN.> I don't deny Aeo has major impulse control problems which makes me think we'll never get along on an E team because it's frustrating as all hell to deal with and I was E with Winter* before, but. After Aeo's chaos causing her team heart attacks in MR66, does she double down here? IDK - maybe you could argue yes: character/nature is character/nature which means she's just going to fundamentally keep behaving in the same ways. If you're an optimist about human nature, then you say no ig. This isn't a meta read. It's a mata read, btw. I lean V/V even so because of where the main movements come from. But ngl can understand the temptation to just flip the damn CW and call it a day. *I have a significant amount of trauma from most E games, but being E with Winter, I'm sorry to say, was a special shade of hell and that's probably colouring my take here. Cycle Two 1. Game Notes: Observations Holding space again. 2. Vote Analysis [RAW] C2 Thoughts/Analysis: Apathy is similar between C1 EoD and D1 EoD in that our chronic non-voters continue to be chronic non-voters. If we think this category still has the most Elims ( @Winnie the Pookla, you had this thought. Are you still on it?) then it entails that basically there was no vote on an Elim anyway. The difficulty here is that I think apathy is pretty much expected from our No Vote tier, with Ash and Alpha showing up once and disappearing, so there's little we can do about it. JNV had RL, and TKN is a chronic non-voter so I wasn't expecting a difference. Neil pushes Araris and stayed put. Aeo swung between Araris, Cash, and back to Araris again - it's hard to see them teamed, I think, and it suggests a certain lack of investment, given her regrets about giving her teammates early heart attacks in MR66. Coffee's more or less launched a Crusade for Damascus - sorry, Araris, but has more or less reached the destination immediately and is using it to draw conclusions. I kind of want to side-eye Coffee for methodological reasons but the Aman push and the post I picked out both seem like positives here. My final answer: disappointing, but difficult to call, so I want to pathwalk. I lean by a very slight hair towards V!Araris, on the same basis that a lot of the shifts came late from flipped Villagers or Village credences, but don't really have a strong reason to believe so. A. V!Araris Ex hypothesi, Araris is V. I'm fine with V Aman at this stage, I sort of maybe am with JNV but am probably going to rethink this nearly a hundred times. So where are our Elims? In <Neil, Coffee, Aeo> IMO, with an Aman side - not sure if all are, as I think there are reasons to V!read Coffee and Aeo, so let's ID Neil as one of the suspects and orange them both on a positional basis. (The main defeater for Coffee I think is something in the vicinity of 'insane Elim meta.') Unfortunately, IDing the potential teammate in <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> feels like a crapshoot here. And if I'm correct about my Coffee and Aeo reads, I'm almost required to believe there's a teammate in there. If I think V!Neil, then our entire inactive tier is just Elims+SK, but IDK. B. E!Araris Ex hypothesi, Araris is E. The thing is: where are Araris's teammates? Bussing Araris? Inactive? I think Aman asked this question and it's just bloody weird IMO. I expect at most a maximum of one teammate in <Neil, Coffee, Aeo>, with a strong possibility there's none. Neil's vote stayed for way too long, so I'd italicise him as it started as a pressure vote and then never budged. He had plenty of time to go somewhere else without looking too suspicious. Coffee being Araris delenda est doesn't really work, I'd argue, because Coffee hasn't exactly been shy about pushing Araris. This leaves us with Aeo, which sort of works in light of Aeo hopping between the Cash and the Araris trains, but she ended up on Araris and stayed there, which doesn't feel as right (I'd rather think Aeo has low commitment to either train.) Aman doesn't feel correct here because he was pushing Araris. I remember from LG94 he has risk tolerance, because what the hell was that D1 even but continuing to keep the fire on Araris just seems like an odd decision. Which really, once again, points to the <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> barrel, which is...really hard to differentiate. Maybe slightly less for TKN, but TKN has been known (cf. QF64) to avoid defending teammates before to stymie vote analysis. IN SUMMATION/OVERALL CONCLUSIONS: - Feel V/V is best explanation of D1; this likely points to V!Aeo, recognise I am Devil's Advocating @Amanuensis at this point but that's my function. - Slightly lean towards V!Araris on D2 for V/V due to where the swings were coming from: E!Araris requires largely inactive partners IMO, with a maximum of one in <Neil, Coffee, Aeo.> V!Araris probably points to some in <Neil, Aeo, Coffee> but I kinda don't think so, so probably most willing to look at Neil in there, with partners in <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN.> -I feel in either world, there's a commitment to Elims in the <Alpha, Ash, JNV, TKN> pool. I'm considering going on JNV in light of that as I think it's more productive than an Araris shot. People are free to talk me into something else.

We know she does it on a regular basis on impulse - cf. LG98 and QF69 which she explicitly cites as "don't do it." (Impulse because she does it anyway despite citing QF69.) But I'm saying it's one thing to be a regular self-voter and another thing to do it deliberately in situations that materially affect your team's win chances, in light of the blowback she got that game. It's easier to displease the Village because you know, so many people and the thread. It's harder to do that with a doc who can vocally express their displeasure. It's a different setting. Again, maybe I'm projecting. The main place I hesitate on SK!Aeo is the Raven shot. But that being said, I don't know Aeo well enough to know how much she'd go with that particular taboo. Edited to add: Like I don't even think there's any form of 'have to emulate my Village self' pressure here because I legit don't think anyone would bat an eye at her not self-voting. I think it's just pure impulse. But I feel she's also pro-social enough to be a bit more restrained on it with teammates, and even if not, should've been after that D1 EoD. I dunno. Spitballing ig. Edited to add 2: Can someone post please. I just want to drop analysis and go nap and I can't if that merge is going to bork a longer post up and it shouldn't merge anyway.

Question for you. After her gamethrowing openwolfing in MR66, do you think E!Aeo is cool with self-voting into a tie into D1 EoD? (Genuine question - I think you could say yes, but I'm squinting.) Edited to add: To be clear, I think self-voting qua self-voting is something Aeo would do regardless of alignment so it's NAI. But under the circumstances, as her teammate, I'd feel deeply uncomfortable, if not put out. I'm struggling to see them go 'you do you queen '. Maybe I'm projecting my discomfort with having been E with Winter here (looooong story), but I kind of think that she'd rein it back just a little or at least have a social incentive to do so in the form of a doc. SK is a possibility I've been considering, but the Raven kill makes me question. Edited to add 2: Sorry, still not clarifying properly. I mean self-voting qua self-voting, she'd do no matter what. But self-voting into a tie (she believed it was a tie, and it was only broken by a Villager) and continuing to lean hard into the chaos streak beyond that? I agree you can say I'm making a TWTBAW argument and I suppose on some level it washes out as that. I just kind of would like to hope that Aeo wouldn't drive her teammates to drinking like it's a new sacrament, I guess, given her expressed sentiments after MR66.

Says the bro who abuses this liberally when Evil!

Maybe it's me. I just decided to do a rehash of the Security Officer and went 'screw wincon I'm just gonna meme on the Elims because I can' ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm legit just parking my vote on her while I rethink everything and rework analysis ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Funny how that takes time to do, if only ChatGPT could write an SE post for me. Respect for Coffee's and Aman's insistence on a possible E!Aeo world is making me relook but in general, I think D2 has ??? moments from Aeo but the D1 exe result is still a major sticking point.

Then we have a definitional problem. I take self-defense to be purely focused on giving reasons to believe you're Village, which you also intimated. I take casing another player, while it may serve the purposes of self-defense, to be about solving more than self-defense. <Okaythen.jpg> Edited to add: Reasons as to why I am Village =/= Reasons why Someone Else is Not Village and Should Be Voted. I'm not going to engage further as I don't consider this a good use of my time this morning.

Why? Again, it's not either-or, but Coffee specifically thinks that just giving reads is a problem instead of defending herself, as though there's anything 'just' about showing up and doing Village work. Obsessing with how you look over doing Village work is what got Mat exed in MR56 on C1. This I would agree with, but that's not defending herself - it's making a case for someone else.

My point is that it's overdefending again - sitting down and spelling out reasons for V!you is bare minimum but helping your team by offering reads and doing analysis work so they can read your mindset is better. Coffee expects Aeo to defend passively which is kinda ??? Edited to add: Well, this is mine. Not going to comment on the self-voting - honestly she does it so often I just ignore it everytime she does it now for my own sanity. But you accuse her of giving reads instead of defending herself which is just a weird position to have. Edited to add 2: I don't think it makes you look pretty bad, but I'm asking you if you think this affects the coherence or the grounds of your view now. FWIW I'm still partway through my re-read and not sure about you but I've flagged some posts I like and V!lean you.

Why should she give reasons as to why she is Village? Don't get me wrong, I'm really not a fan of Aeo swinging between chaos and overdefending and it's really still not helping that chaos = Evil button, but... As a Villager, giving reads and analysing helps your team and is bread-and-butter. As MR56!Aman said, less defending, more doing Village work. If you are a Villager, that's where it really comes from - walking the talk. Expecting her to spend more time giving us reasons to think she's Village is ??? because the concern shouldn't be with how you are read (barring what it says about others reading you) but with helping your team. Edited to add: I'll also note your response to the third teammate question isn't really working out well since Wiz flipped Village. So you're committed to Aeo's team being cool with Aeo in a 50/50 D1 which is not impossible, but - well, my vote analysis I'm reworking on has a line there that's basically about the human condition and the darkness of the human soul

You were strongly pushing E!Aeo and E!Araris last cycle...?

You aren't exactly the easiest son-of-a-chull to exe this side of the Sellen, Dyring! Commenting on anything else later - my attention is actually about 90% on the vote analysis I'm finishing up. Edited to add: I hate to be that guy but I noticed a missing vote in an intermediate VC and I'm PTSD Chihuahua all over again ._.

If I grant you're Village, isn't that a tough call? Fair on the protect. Any chance they're trying to kill the SK to avoid losing their number unnecessarily? Why so? Why that ranking?

I'm leaning V/E now FWIW but I think you are the main ? here. Doing the longer analysis, and will be hoping to get rest to synch with you, but the short of it is I think it's telling we had two major CWs rather than the indifference and split of D1. Which feels faster-paced, compared to the early Cash indifference. The main potential distortion factor I can see here is if you expect that you made a significant difference in pulling people off potential sidetrains and onto one of the two main trains. The contrast to D1 is visceral. Edited to add: As the voice of reason/Devil's Advocate here, I firmly suggest you find three priests and a stuffed cushion and begin the Spanish Inquisition and prepare the bonfires—oh sorry wrong Devil's Advocate. I can't really say I disagree? I suppose part of it is my giving your views more weight than what felt like Coffee crack, part of it is both of you feeling that way (regardless of Coffee's alignment, it's still something to think about wrt the epistemology of disagreement), and my thoughts coming off NKA for C2. There's an additional factor which is that suppose <you, me, Aeo, Neil> are pure and we're closing on the Elims. Isn't this the world in which the Elims absolutely whittle us the f down? Why isn't this happening? Do they hold their nerve? (Maybe. Interested in @Winnie the Pookla's take here.) I'm not really fond of theories that suggest the Elims are being reactive here, and that sort of makes me think that the reason there wasn't any attempt to target is that it's tainted but also potentially (and combined with that), we're barking up the wrong trees.

Former. I'm trying to think about the extent to which you believe you had an impact on the Araris train - my assessment right now is that there's high complacency on C2 as well but it's differently-valenced from C1 and for that reason, I'm currently redoing C1 now we know the Elims were also working off the (wrong) public counts.

@Amanuensis Question for you. How much do you see yourself as summoning exes these days? In particular, this game. I'm trying to run some analysis.

Roger that, and yeah - as I said, I found myself slipping a bit into more an interlocuter position and if it is an Aeo tunnel, I'd rather we not just feed that (which is what happened in LG84 IMO - Orlok was looking to me to hold him back, I Did Not Do That, and the Arelene doc just went into a mass tunnel on you occasionally egged on by Shadow.) Obviously need to go look things up and think for most of these. My current instinct FWIW - V/V. And the kill thing, yeah that's what I'm trying to cross-reference against the original NKA I did, tbh. I stil feel - and this is instinctively correct to me - that the train angle is absolutely a complete mistake. I think if we expect a frame kill wrt Devo, I'd argue to look more closely at <Neil, JNV, Coffee.> (But I also don't fully believe this is a kill JNV makes here.) But I don't really expect a frame kill. I think it's either: A. Aiming to leave us paranoia-exeing in <you, me, Neil, Aeo> B. What it says on the tin: that there's an Elim in <you, me, Neil, Aeo>, maybe two. If A., definitely my eye goes straight to TKN. It's the QF64 playbook again. But also, at the same time, not. So I lean B. But this is purely from a NKA angle, mind.

Aman. Serious question right now. What role do you need me to play? Because I find myself sort of playing interlocuter, which is fine - I was looking for an Aeo post that, as I mentioned, I'd flagged in my GM PM to pursue at a time where she wouldn't compulsively respond when unhealthy as it felt like a slip. But I sometimes get the idea that you - and this was true of Orlok and also MR56!Aman, are looking for me to step up more in the Devil's Advocate section. I guess I'm asking what modality I'd be most useful in. I don't know I can cover both right now even if that'd be ideal.