Kasimir

I'm gonna need a Read the Rules react by this point aren't I Their ability is inactive as long as they are drunk/poisoned. All drunk/poisoning abilities occur at Night and last the Night and one Day. Could a player theoretically lock such a Dragon by repeated poisoning/getting them drunk? Yes.

No.

I think, contrary to my usual 'Don't Ask, Don't Get' policy, I'm going to have to be a bit more proactive about clarifying here: Either Dragon doesn't have to claim ASAP when first voted on. This is only the thing you need to do if you want being exed to lead to a win for your team. If you don't care to pursue that today, then you don't have to claim. Second, Drake and I are not averse to clarifying how info roles interface with drunkenness/poisoning but because each role interfaces differently, we don't want to do a whole set of clarifications. We're more willing to address your questions about your results in your GM PM.

Funny comment to make of the guy who has been making long analysis posts and who IDed JNV and Ash even as you suggested they wouldn't be hits. Or, you know, the guy promoting thread discussion - I specifically ask and am in part waiting for Neil because he makes a very interesting comment about the kill on C2. Edited to add: There are two factors that make me consider V!Illwei tbh. But Coffee has screwed my PoE immeasurably.

Day One - You Spin Me Right Round The Wheel of Time turns and Ages come and go, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth returns again. What was, what will be, and what is, may yet fall under the Shadow. The small village of Helgen is sheltered from the Blight by the mountains of Kandor and the swords of the Borderlanders. This is not your war: most of you have grown up in Helgen and will die there as well. Last night, the rain mingled with the spreading mist. They hung a Darkfriend in the village square, that morning. You remember it. Old Sargon, no one quite believed he had it in him. But he went to the gibbet, his head held high, screaming the Dark One’s name on his lips. T̶̘͎̋͆̔͆̓͘̚h̵̛̹̬͎͍͕̘͚̬̻͔̯͍͔͖͇̟̳̤̱ͦ̈́͒͗̽͆̑ͥͬͩͧͩͭ̾̏̉͟͜á̵̧̲͔̮̾ͪ̐ṫ͈̜̗̋̊͆ͤ w̱ͣ_̸̢̜̣͙̩̼͛̐ͫ̇̉̍͒͒͢͢_͓̮̋̎ͨ̀̀͜á̟̘̞ͥṥ̴̪͍̓̾ ṯ̢̦̘̩̝̹̩͕̩̻̤̫̠͚͎̤͖̅ͦ̂̈̔̑́ͩ̋ͣ̏ͤ͌̈́ͥ̒̃h͙̉͒̉̎̚͟͢ͅe̛̹͖͎͇̗͙̲̮̭͍̩̺͚̥͚̅̓͊ͯ͗̀̽͛̓͛̈́̔̓̂̍̀ͧ̑̒͂ͥ̈ͫͬ̌̀͝͡ d͖̣̞̙̍̌̄́ͯ͘a̷̷̡̰̞͓̦̳̱̖̻͉̞̜̦̒̿ͬ̌ͤ̓̃̀ͣ̆ͧ͗́̇̽͒͗͘͟͝͡ͅ_͖̉̔͌͐w̵̢̧̞̞̯̺̲͍͖͈͇͙̥̝̞̿̽́̀͑̽̂̿̇̎̕͠͠ṅ̶̷̶̘̤͚̟̘̭̪̞̗̘ͩͬ̈ͯ͆̓ͤ̓ͭ͑̚͠͞ͅ.̨̢̢͕̞͙̩̞̪̤͍̠̀̑̏̍ͬ̾̅͋͡ L̴̸̡̟̞̤̤͇̝͗̈̏̌̆͒ͯ͠a̶̵̢̧͎͚̣̲͙̱̼̯͍̘̲ͩ̒̄̔̍̿́̂ͩ̾ͭs̸̛̭͍̩̙̝̣̻̹͕̭̖͕̳ͬ̏̎͋̋̈̏̑̍͊͋̍̓͛̊̑ͬ̚͞͠t̂̋ n̻ͩi̷̴̗͈̲͙̦̝̪̾̎̉ͥ͋͢͟͠ͅ_̤̩̓̒̄̚͡__̻̻͗̾ǧ̵̸̯̙̩̝͇͔̔ͦ͒̉̇ͦ͊͘̕h̵͈̟̗̻͇͕͓ͩ̅̆̓͂́ͫ̚͘̕͢͡t͎̞̯̟͖̰͍̣̹̬ͭ̐̋̒̃̋ͭ̋̐̀ͣͨͯ͋͐̎͆͑ͭ͝͞,̺̮͇̺̼͙͙̱̞͈͐ͮͨ̓ͧ͆ͪ̅̈́͑̈́͐̎ͦ͊̑͆́͑͋̓́̕͢͠ͅ ṫ̷̸̖̪̪͍̙͙̑͆͑̐͌͗͘h͓͟ę̷̛̹̳̬͍̜͇̳͇̤̯̪̼̥̔͂͛̇̓͐̌̈̈́̈́̓ͬͮ̚̕͘͢͟͟͢͜͞͞͝͡ͅ mó̸̸̴̯̰̮̯̙̻͕̙̥̘̬̬̗͔̔ͤ̔̃͐̀͐ͮ̿͛ͩ̀̽̄̄͡͡u̸̸̻̤̝̤̝̱͔ͪͧ̐̎̽̽̐͒̔ͤ̈́ͨ̈̍̾͘͜ņ̴̷̧͎̱̠̳̣̤͙̘̬̒͌ͮ̿ͪ͌̂͑̍ͩ̀͜t̵̷̵̨̛̙͎͍̹̹̻̼̻͔͍̜͑ͩ͛̑̄̐̓ͨ́̃̆̇́͆̉̂̈̇̍ͫ̑̂̇ͬ̅̓̄͋͢͡͝ḁ̸̢̡̯̣͓̩̮̲̯̠̼̒̑ͯ͋ͩ̈́̎͒͆̌̊ͧ̉̂̚͘͜͝͞_̤͓͉̤͍̞̃̏͒̽ͣ̒̓͝ï̡͖͉ͮ̂̚͢͞n̸̛̘̮̝̒͛̚ ṛ̵̵̨͓̺̯͚͓̫ͩ͐̾ͨͯͭ̈̌̌͐ͬ͝ͅa̵͎̯̝̙̬̥̱̍ͭ̑̒̀̾̈́͒̂ͯ͌͂̏ͤ͢͜͞͡_̼͉̲̬͚̙̫ͥ͛̔͑i̢̤̞̗̜̞̦͇̬̮͎͒ͯ̓ͤͭ̍ͮ̊̑ͥ̓̋ͬ̕͟ň̷̴͔͐̚ m̴͚͇̦̪̬̗̩͇̊ͣͮͭͭ̾̔̀̿̍̃̀̾̿̅̃͋̕̚̕͝i̴̛̜̻͇̭̝̺͍̯͓̘̲ͥ̋ͨ̓͡_̥̰ͤ͑͞͡n̪̝̪͔̿̊̋ͤ́̐ͨͣ͢ǵ̢ͣl̵̗̰͉̩͔̐͂ͣ̐͛ͣ͜ͅ_̡̛̗͙̻̻͙̗͒ͫ͊̍͊̀̉̑̑͞͡_̵͚̉͆̍eͬ͂̋͝͠d̸͖͚̜̳̫̘̜͓͍̝ͩ̌ͨ̿͂̿ͨ̃ͩ̌͟͢ w̵̪͖̳̍ͫ̿_̡̹͙̘ͮ̿̊͂̽̈́͢_̳̏_̡̢͎̒ͮ̀̋́̑̊̾͒ͪ͜͢͝ḭ͇́̀́ͅť̷̙̬̹͇͑̓̄̿͗_̸̨̥̦̠̣̬ͯ͂̓̄́͝͝h̷̦͐̈́_̷̮̬͔̹̤̬̜͖͎̖̺ͯ̉ͧ̀̔͆͌ͧ̏́͗ͮ̎́̈́̋̚͜͡ t͔ͦ̽͢͜h̵̸̷̡̧͎̗̦͕͙̗̺̙̲̮̦͉̤̯̔́̓͆͌̊̆̈́͑͊̋̈́ͤ͆ͬ́̓ͬ̎̆̑́ͮ̕e̔̒̆͋̽ s̶̷̡̜̠̬̩͓̜̯̜̫̖̥͚̽̋̃ͩ͌̊ͫ̌̇ͭ̀̽̑̈́̀̆̀̈́͢o̶̧͚͍̘̺ͭͩ̈́̈̀̓ͭ͆͋̕f̴̶̡͔̮̫͎̯̥͇̬̫͕̫͎͔ͧͫͤͥ͋ͥ͋͋̊̌̇̽̅͌́̓̔̂̔͌̒̌̋͢͠͞t̵̛̛͔̘̥͈͈͓͉̺͖̣͖̓ͫͤ͗̋̓͆̏̏ͩͪ͒̄͂ͬͪ̀̐̌͜͡ w̶̶̵̸̛̛̗̣̲͓̪̪͕̮̻̮̠̌̑ͣͣͩͪ̂͐ͫ͊̈́͒̽́̆̇̏̿́̾̚̕͠ͅẖ̡̙͈̖̹͍̼͍̥̍ͭ̎͂̀̎̎̊ͤͮ̀̇ͩ͌̈́̋͌̄̚̚͠͞ͅi̵̸̶̡̦͎̺̫̺̊̄ͩ̒̋̎ͥ̇ͯͨ̚͟t̻̮̪̦̟̞̼̿ͦͫͭ̔e̴͆ͮ m̴̴̴̡̨̛̼͔͔̰͍̘̱̳̙͓͕̤ͩ̍͐ͫ̈́̎̅́ͧͯ̀̽ͮͪ͒͂ͩ͞ͅį̶̷̨̹͖̬̮̯̠͚̣̹̬̩̪̹͑ͬ́̃̀ͪ͌̽̿͌̔ͯ̐̍̈̀̕̚͘͢͜s̷̵̴̨̡̡̛̥͎͕͚͕̦̱͚̬͍̘̪̜̖͓͎̱̪̮͇̰͓̟͛́̉́̄͗ͨ͒͌ͣ̇ͫ̄̕͘͘͜ṯ̴̡̱͙͒ͤ͑͢ sͪ̈́̊p̶͙̜͓̟͓͇̏ͥ͌̃͋̌̓ͮ̓͞r̸̸̸͉͙̥̘͚̯̯̥͚̳̣̞̟̦͉̅̿́̓ͬ͆ͧ̉̅̍͒ͣ̔̚ͅë̶a̮̦̪̳͚ͯͯ̾͌̈̽͒͋̐͂̀̈́̀̽͘͘͡ͅ_ͭd̬̙̘͉̉ͤ͆̏́̆̋̓i̘̜ͬ̂̉̌n̥̖͚̬̞̰̺̫̤̦̗͒ͪ̿́ͮ́́͐̔ͧ̚͟͝gͥ ṯ̷̢̢̨͎̳̬̱̳̠͙ͨ̀ͣͭ̓̋̽̉ͨ̇̀ͭ̎̅̚̕͠h̨̥̀ŕ̞̣͔ͦ͋͌ơ̵̸̧̨͚͙͎̩̙͚̥̺͕̦̥̥̭̘̜̙ͥ̅͛͌̓ͦ̆̋́ͬͫͥ̈͂̏͟͡ư̛̛̼̗͓͓̤̜͐͆͐ͣͣͩ͊̊ͪ̈́̏̄͂ͦ̔̄̚͜͝g̣̜͓̞̙͍̐͗̀h̢̰̼̳ͭ͊͞͝ H̢͎̳̖̮̣͙̝̺̣̼͐͊ͦ͂̉̏͊ͮ͆ͣ̒́̇ͯ͝ͅel̨̛͖̼̪̻͇͈̠͉̘̗̲̺͓͗ͦ̐͛̄͑̑̍͑ͪͨ͆ͣ̀̚͢͢͡͝͠͞g̺̤͙̣̣̾́͡͠e̶͚̻̯̟͓͓͇̮̙̞̳̞̺̙̩̋͑ͬ̓̽͗̑ͮ͗͌ͣ͊ͨ̓̎̒ͣ͜͜͝n_̤̮͒͗͒̅̄͘̕͢,̵̴̧̡̦̞̘̤̙̽ͥ͛̆̔ͬ͢͠ b̸̵̵̛̛̛̘͎̫͓͙̥̲͈̯̈́͐̊̍̎ͥ́ͣͮ̋̍͘͟͢ͅl̴̶̴̡͙͉͈̳̗̮̘̬͕͉͂͗̓̋͒́̏̅̍͐̀͛̑ͯͩ̍ͥ̔́͒̈̔ͧ̂͂͜͠͞͠á̾̑̑̔_n͍͉ͮͮk̷̛̮̮̼͍̮͖̗̗̪͍̟̭̮͎͈̥̻̩̠͔̓̋̑̓̽̀͗̉ͤͫ̓̿̑ͤ͘̚͢͟ͅͅe̸̲͎̲̞̰̟̙̬̙̲̗̼̠͈͍̞̦͉͇̋̌ͧͤͨ̀̔̐̆ͮ̿͊̒̏ͣ̕̕͠t̵̜̖͖͉́ͪ̉̃ͯ͗́̀̑͋̒̕͢į̛̟͉͍̲͖͎͔̱͖̳͆ͥ̏ͨͫ͗ͮͭ̆͋̓̐ͩ́͜͝n̢̹̰̭͖͉̻̬̺̣̻͚̫̗͈̂́̈́̐ͨ́̓͌ͬ̾̐͛̇̋̀ͩ̒ͥ̏̾̿̇̕͟͡g͓̣̣̞̯̬̤̫ͨ͐̂̈̔̊ i̷̶̢͙͙͉͎̟̻͍̟̱͍͕ͯͦͦ͑ͩͯ͋ͥ͊͐ͫ̉̑̎͌̾̃͘͘̚͢͜͡ț̣̤̙̫̦̇ͭ̂̔̈ͪ̑̉̾̐͢_̷̢̞̰̹̹ͯͭ̒ͨ͆́̾͜_̴̖̳͍̆̋͐́͋̆̎͛̓ͅ i̷̸̸̮̻͍̯̻͍̙͎̗̞̹̻̼̋̌̔ͫ̒̓́͐̄̐ͤ̈̂͋̆̊ͫ̇̔̋̕͜n̴̸̬̫͇̯͇̥̫̲̮̟̩̱̈́͂̐ͣ̋͂ͮ̕͜ a̸̱̤̹͈͓͎͖̪̭̬ͮ́͒̄ͪͥͭ͂̾͐̎͆̎̔͒ͫͮ̿ͬ͂̒ͬ͘͘̚ͅ s̢̢̗̤̤̳̪̭̞͚͔̐̋̑̓͑ͧ́̚͝t̘̫͖͚̱̰͆ͯ_̸̨̦̘̳̯͕̼͚̙͕̠̫͊̎͋̎ͩ̏ͦ̉͑̑̆̉͛̊̕̚̚͟͜͜͠ͅr̬a̷̶̴̡̨̨̛̠̗͔̥̳̱̻͕͇̭̥̹̭̼̖͂̌ͧ̈ͪ̐ͮ̍̐͂ͬͭͥ́̅͗̄̚͜͡͝͡n̷̲̞̜̉̈ͪ̊̉ͭͦ́ͯͦ́̊͋̀̒ͨ͋̚͘͡͡͝g̣͍̳̓ͩ͆̀ͥ̈͌͒̓ͣ_̵͙̪̫͎̹̀ͨ̓͒ë̵̴̶̢̺͓̥̖͙͓̺̪̺̳̃ͥͮ̇̌͑̃͒̎͌́͊ͦ̂̍̿͗͂ͮ̚̕͞ f̷̢̧̤̥̜̗͓̟̤̫͉̦̘̾̓͋ͨͦ̒o̹ṟ̱̊̒͐̕̕g̴̵͍̲͙̦̳̖̮̱̗̫̣̺͇̝̱͍̲̰͎̥ͧͭͭ̏̂̅̄ͨ͘e̶̜͍͈͔̻̅͛̋ͤ̂ͦ́͂̓͌͞͡_̧̖͇̠͛͛͊́̿t͓͕͙ͪ͂͛͂̄͆ͮͦ̂̇ͩ̌̆̃f̶̢̡̝͇̜͎̮̦͔̮́̃̍̍͆̓̃͋̃ͧ͗̑̃̆̋͋͟͜͞ŭ̶̟̗̭̝̹̤̩̫̀͌͗̀̕͡ļ͙̬̩̠̺̼̥̫̥͌̿͐ͨ͛͋͝_̸̨̨̡̳̼̝̫̮̊̑̈́͛ͬ̓̅̀̋ͅǹ̨̛̪̳̬̱͎͓͍̫͓̑̾ͭ̊ͭ͟͜͜e̸̶̡͖̭̘̲̙̠̲̫̖̻̮ͮͬ͂̏͗̓͟͝_̵͙̮͘͞s̨̻͕̦̬̙͇̘̆͂̌͌͋̒͂͌̀̉̽͟͡ͅs̡̢̢̪͖̞͉͍͈̤͉̹̪̖̙̳͆̿̄̂͑̎͐̇̾͑̈́͛̍̅͗̅̎̑̚͡ͅͅ.̙͚̔̕ This morning… Old Sargon walks into the village inn and laughs and orders a mead. Not dead. Not rotting. Still breathing, Light burn him and damn him forever. You are used to the Blight, to fell things. Sometimes, the Dark One reaches out from his prison and touches the world. This though? You don’t know what to make of it. Old Sargon claims a Forsaken walks among you, that Helgen is doomed. And still, the mist creeps in. The Day has begun! It will end in under twelve hours on 19th December (Tuesday) at 1330hrs SGT [GMT+8]! Please be patient as GM PMs are being updated! Player List

He had...one science vote. What about the rest of his C1 and C2? Except that I was asking you why you thought a cc play was remotely plausible. So...you basically think you have the game locked on Neil, no need for further discussion, backreading, or you know, evaluating with the what, more than 24 hours we have left? Because yeah, you're Sanderson, but honestly the fact you're taking it as license to sit there and not consider other possibilities is appalling - we need to vote red today, or failing which, prepare the Village for the best possible endgame, and I dislike that complacency regardless of your alignment. If Neil flips green, who do you go to next cycle?

Turn is closed!

Thank you Mat and Quokka Buddy I appreciate the help here. I get to retain a tiny scrap of faith that some players read the rules or the topic title...

Short answer: PAFO. Long answer: It depends, because these roles operate pretty differently.

One vote. But you can't exe at Night so it doesn't matter. These votes are about as meaningless as the dark void of human existence as I contemplate my tea sadly after almost a week short on sleep and allnighters No, you're Mat >>

I have never heard so much slander in my entire life.

Hi all, please be reminded the Turn closes in twenty-six minutes!

@Coffeecat - You're lurking in the thread, so instead of waiting for an Elim to cc in a suicide run, think you could answer my questions? The point is to solve for the Elims, not to wait for something to happen.

Sorry, didn't see this - my notifs are a bit wonky at the moment and only Wiz's showed up. However, JNV has the correct answer here, thank you Quokka Buddy!

PAFO.

I have already rolled for Pattern degradation for this cycle. As I've been asked, my bad choice of naming scheme means this is what the cycle schema looks like: Cycle One: N0/D1 Cycle Two: N1/D2 Cycle Three: N2/D3 This means the game ends on the last exe, rather than hoping for a clutch shot from a Veteran, of which I will neither confirm nor deny whether such a role exists in this game.

I can't answer tactical game questions. I am the GM and cannot take sides.

You all are free to force me to need one, but IMO the only thing you need to know is drunkenness/poisoning takes precedence, that's it.

Oh my God you guys read the rules already ;-; It's over the whole game you cannot exe more than one Villager a cycle staaaahp this madness you bloodthirsty fools

Reasonable. I'm not sure if I believe you're V, I honestly kind of want to because of two factors, but at the same time, you did scam me in Archer's QF and with Coffee claiming Sanderson, PoE has kinda been screwed to hell and back.

Are you suggesting E!TKN, or just both V!TKN and V!Araris? I do know Araris has a thing where he sometimes puts a distancing vote and then feels locked in, but in this case, it just feels like an unforced error. Edited to add: Why would the Elim cc you? ccing you would be seppuku. There's no reason to hope for the Elim to cc here. Edited to add 2: All the what votes?

I still have work and RL but I want to go through some of the basic vote counts and see what we can glean. I'll try to do vote progression analysis later when I have a chunk of time. Cycle One: Flip Edition: Agreed RL may interfere, but again - Ash and JNV both showed up and then didn't. Neil's Ravenclaw CW happens around the time both JNV and Ash face some pressure (though that eventually melts away), which might suggest Neil is a potential partner here. I continue to be very struck by the fact most of the last minute vote movers were Village: <Neil, Raven, Wiz, Devo, Aman>, which is strongly suggestive, as I've argued, of high Elim contentment with this state of affairs. (Aeo intercepting an exe for Ash is probably the biggest gift the Elims received C1, which is why we don't do that >>) Credence Edition: My argument for V!TKN is the JNV vote and the fact JNV just seemed to overlook TKN in their initial reads before being called out about it, i.e. being just as oddly understanding of TKN as they were of Aeo and Archer. Cycle Two Flip Edition: Credence Edition: Second time an entire train is exterminated except for Araris, FWIW. Again, from Ash's and JNV's relative inactivity, I'd argue they're relatively content with this state of affairs. It's true the Araris train only picked up momentum after JNV left, but with some votes on Araris, I'd expect JNV to have realised they needed to check in. (I have additional thoughts here about Araris's kill MO FWIW.) Cycle Three Flip Edition: Credences Edition: I think it's reasonable to argue the JNV train is pretty pure, which means at most one of <Araris, TKN> are Evil. Relative inaction from Neil, Coffee, Ash, and Illwei is interesting - Ash was potentially too inactive, though I recall seeing him in thread a few times. Illwei makes a mixed argument for JNV, but, crucially, refuses to vote on them. Neil tries to direct traffic to Illwei, but at the same time, unvotes Illwei despite arguing her slot is red. Also, @neil the beguiled - One more question I had I suppose. This was something that was bothering me a bit, which is: suppose you are correct in arguing that zero take-up on AlphaWei indicates AlphaWei is Evil. (You made this claim last cycle, here.) Why then do you unvote her? Shouldn't the obvious inference be: these trains are wrong, I need to steer people onto AlphaWei? Coffee as claimed is BS, therefore confirmed Village. Araris dropped a poke vote on JNV that never moved. @Winnie the Pookla Want your assessment of this cycle. But we also know something very interesting: the Elims significantly altered their kill MO. This is because instead of leaving the <Aman, Kas, Aeo, Neil> set untouched, they started to shoot inside the set. If you theorise, as Araris initially did, that they didn't want to mess around with Aman playing IKYK games, then they clearly changed their mind. What was the factor here? 1. Kill MO swamping, potentially: perhaps one of <Ash, JNV> or a teammate didn't want to kill aggressively but felt the need to when they perceived the Village was getting its drek together. 2. The theory that Aman was BS - but again, if true, why dare the shot now? Other easy ways to take out discussion people, including me, especially since Coffee, Neil, Illwei, Aeo were all shading Aman. (I'm questioning FWIW if this shot is an Araris shot in the first place. It doesn't quite feel correct.) @Ookla the Bald Reasons?

What OoA? You don't need an OoA. No, you do not. Think of it like trolling in LG92. Edited to add: Okay I shouldn't be so mischievous @Ookla the Paradigm:

Remember to get those actions in, by the way!