Kasimir

I'd be interested in how you find it. I don't think he's ever written a book I disliked, and I like his Kitai books (Under Heaven / River of Stars) quite a bit. I finally finished the Poet King. I think I still stand by my assessment of Myers being a bargain bin GGK. She kind of wants to get there in terms of prosody and kind of doesn't, and the books overall feel fine, not wow territory, but I just don't have any strong feelings about them and the fact I took forever to finish the trilogy probably says a lot about my assessment of them. A lot of the story feels like things happening to the characters with no real sense of agency, and the worldbuilding doesn't really stick out to me too strongly. I now get to decide whether to do Yumi which I was putting off until after Poet King, or to go read Elizabeth Moon's Paksenarrion again as a palate cleanser.

Nice! I didn't, I got tea for Christmas, which is what I wanted so I'm pleased I did buy myself a new Kakuno but that's largely because they're so useful and I had an expiring voucher for the store (thought of getting pen flush but didn't know how long it could keep.)

Is now I held my peace as I didn't want to accidentally slip, especially in private conversations with Stick - it was snippity and I knew they were maf, hence the importance of being quiet.

Oh so I was right, it was new Evil quokkas who murdered Raven (I'm kidding, I'm kidding, don't worry it happens.) @Coffeecat Just wanted to say dwai - read your dead doc comments and Aman has it absolutely right. I don't like to advertise this and it almost never gets hit or targeted that significantly in a game so that's why some SE players don't know about it. But as you didn't know about it and stopped once you realised you were hitting that scar big time, it's all water under the bridge, no worries

The 'Kas self-protects and we get a green flip which narrows PoE down' plan. I trust you on mech/strats, enough to follow your suggestions but not necessarily your alignment. Araris backing it up solidified it for me. The back of my head thought was always: yes, but if I do this, next cycle, the Elim NKs me. Which is fair in the sense we just want to buy a single cycle, but not ideal in that we'd like to have an extra backstop. Anyway it was moot since I couldn't self-protect. You should be tbh! Smh. Put it this way: I was planning to be less selfish about Lurching but also didn't want to accidentally Lurch an Elim this time due to the SK, so the net result was most of my actual V reads/people I felt okay about Lurching were dying before I could get to them, e.g. Archer, Devo, Araris. For whatever reason, I never felt comfortable enough about Lurching Neil, Aeo et al, which maybe should've been a sign about where my instincts were. It's balanced by the fact I am the definition of failure as a Lurcher Sir, I pointed this out to Wiz I was very realistic about the nature of my role. Smh I signed up for human experimentation without informed consent I think it just annoyed me in that JNV was clearly in their inactivity meta later on, not really on C1 but C1 is too early to tell, but they just felt wrong and I couldn't remotely explain why JNV felt like someone had killed and replaced my Quokka Buddy and didn't feel confident about pushing based on something I couldn't explain and yet also could not just leave them be >> In conclusion: I don't think I meta-read JNV, I don't know how the hell I read JNV please don't ask me kthxbai Cheers, I really enjoyed it, even the convention game aspect. It just felt like a nice side-thing to do since mine was RPing. I just added the bold text to confuse people Definitely a decent shout for a last dance. I mean, I managed to explain it to you, right? Araris was less of a higher bar because he knows Python but since (I think?) you don't do Python, being able to sling it to you and let you run it more or less is probably a good sign for extending support to any other GM who wants to use Tallybot going forward. That being said, I'll note that I actually cloned the version I gave you just in case, so even if you blew it up, restoring would've been pretty fast I can't promise I wouldn't side-eye you for it though j/k This. I'm beginning to think I can never read you - I just hesitate enough and keep you alive long enough to be accidentally correct when you are Village. But I'm glad we all had a V/V/V game here. Can confirm as well On C1, I basically broke down and analysed everyone's reactions to Archer's SK reaction test fakeclaim thing. The short of it is that I think you can usually spot at least one Elim by identifying an anomalous reaction (i.e. an outlier) to the reaction test. This is largely because Elims have TMI and one of them is likely to be influenced by it in responding, while Villagers lack TMI so may have a higher tendency to 'clump' together. I normally will only argue to look for at most one Elim this way, but had identified Neil and JNV as the two more worrying outliers C1 in that longpost and then focused on JNV. I think this was one of the cases where you do have more than one Elim in the outliers but that's not always the natural result, so it's best not to assume high Elim concentration there. To get a bit into the nuts and bolts (ignore if you want), it's just about analysing each response, issuing it a typology, and deciding whether it's similar enough that it deserves to be grouped, or not. E.g. Neil and Devo both V-leaned Archer for it, but Neil's response was different in valence from Devo's due to the immediate "bucket strat?" comment he made that it deserved to be flagged as an outlier rather than merely classed with Devo and left there. So some of the effectiveness of this method is at the mercy of how effective you are at analysing/category generation. On the crude end, if you lump everyone together, you just won't find good outliers (duh.) Will second that. Ah lol small world! You're running the Fruit Vendor game my mafia server friend is playing in FWIW never mention me to them I may have uh, gone hogwild in the game they just GMed me in while multitabling with this one >>;;

Same tbh. Some of my Elim games have had me having breakdowns midgame which is why the offsite stuff helps. No pressure, just go hogwild, die with honour killing town doctor...wcgw More general comment I wanted to make with regard to the dead doc stuff - as Drake noted in our BT, actually, Tallybot is meant for helping the community, and Xino I think ran his own iteration with vote= flags. What I'm saying is that it's probably possible to provide the script as support/doublecheck for GMs, it just needs some testing and set-up for each game as my regex is not always the best. It's a bit more annoying to wrangle in Ookla season, but out of it, it's less of a problem because Drake and I already have the pre-existing player dictionary, so that usually doesn't require too many tweaks.

Hope so too, Neil T/T is much better and I feel you on this. I have a fit everytime I see red in my GM PM.

Thanks for running and dealing with my ongoing cries about being a failure to the legacy of Gamma, @Mat And thanks for putting out all those fires @Elandera! In retrospect, I actually didn't expect that many outliers tbh:

Will do, I think someone else from the other site I play mafia on is in a game currently running there. Thank you for PR shielding @Amanuensis holy chull I felt so much less like a walking target with you playing IKYK mindgames Figured I should, since I realised your plan basically meant the Elims would know I was vulnerable the next cycle, which meant a guaranteed kill. Not that it was on the table, since I self-protected C3 anyway. I didn't fully sus you for it since Araris also signed on and by C4, I was pretty willing to buy V!Araris. Slightly annoyed I shielded you since I nearly intercepted the Araris shot - my judgement was that the Elims might've gauged Araris was more frameable (since you were pushing him, and he's Araris), so chose to protect you instead but evidently that's not how it went >> My Lurching skills tend to be peak clown meme OTL Oh and thank you for swinging off Illwei. When I did the overnight reread of C3, I just could not place that possibility high on the C > B > A list and while I figured the vote was giving you bad vibes, it just felt like the wrong answer right there in light of...other factors I cited. I was really hoping you would because split vote was worse. @Cash67 had the best go out line in this game ngl. That cheeky "Wagon Wiz in my honour!" ftw. Yep, felt you on it Multitabling was leading to my C2 and part of C3 just being underwhelming because I didn't have the attention span to handle this while the Elims were pounding the Village hard in the other game. gg everyone!

MR67 Memes: Yep, only kept sane this game by extreme memeing >> I am Not Good At Lurching OTL

Here's mine: it is ungodly early and I have reread everything. Staying on Neil. Lurch order has been sent in with sacrifices to RNGesus and prayers to Holy Gamma, god of Lurchers. Goodnight all I want sleep.

You know what. Neil yes I know splitting the vote, w/e, y'all are adults and can deal with it. Re-read LG91 and kind of not sure about E!TKN now. Edited to add: E!JNV really likes mentioning TKN and I'm not sure if Aeo is their replacement goldfish or something. Edited to add 2: Lowkey considering returning to TKN but you know what, Neil can join the hotseat too since we gotta get this right or pray that Araris's luck once again carries his team, if he didn't burn it all in that LG91 finale. Or I guess, pray that I actually make one save for my whole life in this game so I can actually post the goalkeeper celebration gif I have ...Yeah let's just get it right. Edited to add 3: @Ookla the Bald - If you're Village, which I'm still re-reading on, I don't disagree about the potential opportunism here but I feel that Neil sort of just sitting it out could arguably also be an Elim just trying not to make too many commitments and sitting back while we push each other, which is a niche I can see happening as well. Because if you think about it that way, then two things Neil did IMO can't be written off. A. D1 attempt to call/beg for Ravenclaw takers, pulling Aman off the Ash train (you were present in the vicinity when JNV and Ash were endangered and never voted that Day), and B. the weird af Illwei post from C3 which - yes I get what he means by BM and so on but it just feels weird. Intuitively if I think a slot is red, I feel I'd be a lot stronger about it??? I'm down to the fact that if I accept your arguments you could've done something, and I accept Illwei's arguments she could've done something, then isn't this basically the something here? Neil trying to sort of push and not push Illwei at the same time? Edited to add X: @Ookla the Bald I guess I just feel like - shouldn't you just CW onto Ash here instead of trying to pull people to Ravenclaw? Listen, Archer was a V!lean for Neil, and I think strong enough he defended Archer against a number of people. Aeo was also a V!lean for Neil at points IIRC. He wanted to add you as well. If so, that's two of Neil's V!reads on trains. Isn't the reaction here at some point, if no appetite for Ravenclaw, just CWing on the inactive? [Edited to add: Because to be clear, unless you V!read Ash, an Ash flip is absolutely better than an Archer or Aeo flip, given Neil's credences. Even if you think Ravenclaw is more likely E, aren't you semi-committed to the view that if this isn't realistic, then you believe you are going to be allowing either of two green flips through? Does this really make sense as an attitude from a Villager? I feel like that's not really showing up in Neil's advocacy here - he keeps talking about wagons and wagonomics rather than the fact two of his V!reads are endangered. Because yeah, to be blunt, I'd've shat a brick if I'd been on at rollover and thought y'all were gonna murder Archer yet again, which was why I was so damned tilted at Wiz C2 because I felt Archer was readable.] I'm reminded here of what happened when I CWed onto you in Mat's Threnody QF - like yes, I'm sorry, but I had a null/no read of you as compared to a robust Village read of Archer and while I was down with voting Turtle, we didn't have the numbers to CW onto Turtle to save Archer. I'm questioning not liking the wagons and being laid back about two of your V!reads going into the tie, especially with little Ravenclaw appetite. The fact Ashbringer and JNV were choices here and Neil ignored them, IMO, is telling. @Ooklil the Wei And I guess otherwise we're back to the problem, right? Which is that if we accept the Aman kill was motivated by JNV and Ash being on death row, then the Elims swapped kill MO. Does an Elim team entirely composed of quiet players, completely lacking in thread control (remember AlphaWei only subbed in C3) really kill in the same numbers they need to hide? (Aman raised this point when he was doing his pyramid scheme too.) I have looked over your game records courtesy of the spreadsheet and while I wanna see isn't there or I'd feel more confident, you are correct you almost never bus, but I also know Illwei here hates bussing when she could do something about it. And there's what IMO Araris mentioned about the dangers of bussing here in terms of exposing you to a SK kill downstream because you then look Villagery. So if I rule you out and Illwei out, aren't I back to Neil? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add X+Y: I guess what I'm saying is, I'm back at Neil again. Can't promise it's my final answer but will be up at rollover. There's a Lion comparison to be made for TKN but IMO it doesn't fully match - kind of just feels off here, and since Lion was E, I'm more willing to see this coming e.g. from LG93!V!TKN. But not sure. Again, KIV this is the train Neil cited, but was probably responding to something in the vicinity of: But running from my notes, by/close to the time Neil intervened, it was really like this: In which he still manages to avoid the two E trains (Ash, JNV), also avoid Wiz, be cool with Archer and Aeo endangerment, and side-train onto Ravenclaw. His concern is ties, not the fact his V!reads are in contention here: again, I don't feel that's a natural or sincere reaction to endangerment of your V reads in the exe. A bonus is that one of the two players he solicits here is an Ash voter. He's okay parking his vote on Araris when we had the C2 Araris/Cash tie, and in fact, his vote never changed at all, suggesting extraordinarily high contentment in a cycle everyone was switching around like Master Yoda doing an Ataru dance - this one case is the one he objects to and wants to CW Ravenclaw for. Why? What's different here? Suggestion: no red trains in contention/in flux, especially when Neil was seeing a potential Ash in the three-way tie. I am going to get some sleep due to timezones and expect to be back three to four hours before rollover. If I'm not because of RL reasons, then sorry, this is my final answer, but I will try to be back.

I re-read your E games when re-introducing you into the suspect pool, so it's interesting you're assuming here I didn't when revising on you - you're off your V and E meta it's hard enough to tell, but I redid LG97 and the slog that was QF64 in order to read your E games, so yes, I'm coming from the position it's within parameters, and then did a side of LG89 (E!JNV, V!you) and QF66 (E!JNV, V!you) to doublecheck. I think 'lazy' is the correct word here, in that in QF64, you generally stayed in the background and didn't offer much. When you did, you offered just enough to get suspicion off you or to blend in. You spent a significant amount of time discussing mech to avoid having to talk about suspicions, and did that even into the final cycle of the game. I think V!you tends to offer more spontaneous observations: having re-read all the cycles, I've seen none occur between C1 to C4. Most of your posts were mech-related, or responses to Archer, or comments, some of which were definitely my fault, but even so. You had exactly one post of analysis in which you said you wanted a JNV and then an Araris flip, and then even after JNV flipped, settled for an Araris flip with a lazy one-liner in Cycle Four that your position hadn't changed, even when challenged on it. Could you? Aman and I were already on Ash and calling for an Ash shot out of frustration and the fact Ash was hiding. You weren't the determining factor IMO - it was Aman's insistence on resolving Ash. Do you genuinely believe you could hide Ash beyond a call for the SK to help us resolve Ash, given just general determination to stop waiting on Ash to re-appear? Keep in mind Aman had been voting Ash for three cycles by that point, occasionally stopped by Aeo. And does E!you have any other option at that point? It's a four vote train on JNV and it wasn't going anywhere. JNV was bussed, whether passively or actively. This is a fact, because the game hasn't ended with Coffee's flip. To be honest, I don't see effort in your V games either. What I do see is showing up on occasion to make an insightful comment. This I haven't picked up either, so telling me I should clear you on effort is a wash. Edited to add: To spell it out: you did one round of vote analysis on E! and V!JNV and have been crutching on that ever since for who to vote on (Araris), which in my view, is most definitely not effort. It may be effort for you, but it also demonstrates a certain passive contentment with where your suspicions fall and reluctance to rethink. Aren't you begging the question here? The very fact your kill MO hasn't been prevalent already suggests they are determining the kills, simpliciter. In LG97, you absolutely let JNV call the kills. And I'd point out that you trying to shoot me was going to be rough last cycle given we also asked me to self-protect. I have my own theories about why I'm still alive, and some of them include the fact I was backing V!you, as well as strong suspicions about interactions within the Elim doc I don't want to spell out. Edited to add: Again, I return you to: A. Illwei chose to passively bus JNV and allow the Ash shot, making a lukewarm JNV post while JNV died. B. Neil chose to make the world's worst CW ever for attention or suspicion, trying to redirect votes onto Illwei when zero people had been interested previously. C. You bussed JNV. If you are arguing that you could have swung the JNV issue or shielded Ash, then isn't this all the more true of Illwei? If you assume as much of your skills, isn't this also true of A? So why is your push back onto Illwei here, especially given you came in wanting to push Neil? I think it's just as fair a reconstruction of events that it's relevant you're pushing Illwei here - the player I had wanted to push, and the player Neil has been frontlining as who he'd like to push, guaranteeing at least a tie. Edited to add 2: @neil the beguiled - You came in liking TKN's first few posts. Later, you speculated TKN was either an Elim or an SK. How do you feel about him now? Edited to add 3: @Ookla the Bald - Maybe let's do it this way. Can you link me to two Village games which you believe demonstrate the amount of effort you put in when Village?

Fair. I think I saw and dismissed it mentally because I kind of agreed and after Szeth's LG and Archer's QF, the fact of JNV's E!meta became known. I guess on retrospect you can say this is a non-committal statement on his part at least. Opposite here tbh. You are his ML of choice based on his credences going into this cycle, so why de-escalate? Sense of fairness maybe, but eh. Opposite meaning than as an Elim I definitely don't do these things because I like the Village to carry on with unforced errors which is why I sat there quietly when they flashwagoned their Seeker trying to save their Coinshot when both claimed thirty minutes to rollover Literally just CW anyone else guys why is this so hard smh I admit part of it is a cynical theory I have in my head that - look. Neither of us are particularly charitable to each other (I'm saying this as a statement of player history here) and without a buffer player, we always, always clash in a game eventually even if we have a few quiet ones and everything was pointing to this going down this cycle. Sure there are multiple other reasons to kill Araris but if you want to maximise a Village split in lylo, one really easy way to do it is to kill the one potential buffer player and leave you and me alive and just watch us go at each other. Sleep is important Hey but if you exe me, Mat can name the next cycle/aftermath the Sanderlynch (Yes I know we don't use that word but c'mon you can't get that pun with Sanderlim or Sanderexe.)

Unlikely. Possibly, but somewhere in the thread he makes a comment about NKing Aeo because we've shown we have no appetite for exeing her. IDK which cycle, they blurred together a bit when re-reading. I can go check. But yeah fair. In what sense? Do you have a reference for the JNV not in E!meta bit? Because I really recall just you saying JNV is off from E!JNV but also that you believe they tick classic Elim boxes. Fair yeah - I was relooking the whole thing so I definitely remember Aman et al arguing that two inactives wasn't the natural assumption. Yeah, that makes sense to me. If TKN's a hit, you claim god status? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ To be clear, not advocating locking on TKN now. Would like to hear from TKN and Neil, and rereading Neil if you have the time is worth it. My thoughts largely as follows: -Probably overly influenced by the offsite game I just played with Drake where all my scans kept coming up Village and I was getting increasingly lost/confused where the Elims were, only to realise E!Drake was the most elegant solution and yep there it was. Renewed my faith in Occam's Razor. -Re-read QF66 as well to compare a V!TKN / E!JNV game. Worth noting JNV never once mentions TKN at all in that game (granted, Archer C2s them) and also that TKN is more active in a helpful way earlier than just mech/SK discussion. I feel there's a clear discrepancy with how TKN is playing this game, and it's making me reconsider. -I...agree E!Neil is a possibility, but even then, two things in Neil's favour IMO - first, his behaviour this cycle. IMO when there's a rift between two possible Villagers, you always have two options - you can make it worse, or you can try to stop them and keep Village rolling forward. I agree Neil theoretically E!leans you but the fact he was trying to de-escalate is worth something in my view. Village-on-Village conflict is always a gift to the Elims. In contrast, TKN doubles down by joining my vote on you. I'd argue that given there was always an open possibility of V!Illwei, Neil's behaviour is more pro-Village here. -Second, while I'm...eh about Neil on re-reading, I also feel that one positive is the fact he was pushing an under-the-radar Elim team from the beginning. I think Araris sussed him for it a bit given that Neil then focused on TKN and Wiz, but...is that really a bad thing? In retrospect, Aeo, Aman, and I are all Village. Neil pointing us to low profile Elims is kind of loltastic as deepwolfing if he's setting us on two of our teammates and discouraging Village-on-Village violence given the Aeo, Aman, and I set. If a deepwolf has to bite at some point, where's Neil's bite? He couldn't save his teammates. Isn't that ultimate deepwolf failure? In that world, don't you just go for Village cred since you have to sit there for the long run? (Are we suggesting that EoD was meant to look a bit sus so the SK wouldn't hit him? He was already sus to several...) -Take this or disregard this as you will: I can't say more about it but I'm aware of an alternative explanation for Neil's activity drop. -I'd add I felt Neil had some fairly natural C1-C2 posts that made me think he wasn't in a doc. -Genuinely more uncomfortable with TKN's C4 complacency compared to you or Neil. - @neil the beguiled Honestly, could you link me to one town game and one maf game for you? I just need a better idea of your baseline. -Unsure what Coffee's read is worth but if Coffee was pushing Neil last cycle, she clearly didn't believe E!Neil. Edited to add: In any world I wasn't Brandon Sanderson (wow does this sound like such a weird statement), this is where the Village probably flashwagons me for what's supposed to be an E!slip RIP.

More my own thoughts - that earlier in maybe C2 or C3, had considered giving him credit for focusing on SK hunting because that seemed too Evil for an Elim to willingly broach. I feel that goes a bit TWTBAW and is not viable at lylo anymore. So yeah I'm agreeing. Yep, basically. Yeah - he mentions Ash as a potential teammate but that being said, Ash was voted on a bit earlier prior to TKN's JNV vote, if the context helps. JNV and Ash tie. Shortly after, Aeo and Aman swap to JNV and the Ash train dissolves, which is the point at which TKN enters with the post on JNV partners and votes JNV. Edited to add: Before I forget - TKN for now.

Edited to add: Sorry the notif didn't come - I think the Shard doesn't reping you if you've already been pinged. It wasn't a point for why he's a Villager, or at least I'm really not sure. It was me telling Neil that I felt that there was no alternate viable CW at the point TKN joined, since Neil was arguing that it depends, e.g. could JNV and TKN just thunderdome. I was pointing to the votestate and telling him that yeah, but look at the trains - you, with zero take-up, JNV on Aeo, and Coffee on Araris. Does E!TKN really have options here? I feel like he could plausibly either drop a bussing vote or just hope to scare people off the JNV train in virtue of train size. The Aeo comment is earlier in the cycle: Later on, as he votes JNV: You're right he has Ash on both teams - most of us were expecting one in <Ash/JNV> at best.

I think based strictly on Options A, B, C, my personal ranking rn is: C > B > A. Like look you know Neil better than I do. My problem here is always: isn't that like the world's worst CW. No one has voted you from the start of the cycle, and it came so late. If he himself has unvoted you, even while trying to FUD V!reads on you, does any reasonable Elim here imagine there's enough take-up? It's almost like if E!Neil, it's him being performative...but in a nonsensical way? I am fully willing to accept your bus threshold is so high and you think busses are much worse than players often believe that I am not willing to rank a passive bus from you as the most likely option of all three. And I was relooking LG97 last night as a comparison as your point about the JNV post made me want to recheck it: I kind of think it's also worth running a direct LG97 to MR67 comparison here: LG97 #1 Archer - Aeo focus again. I s2g if JNV ever just voluntarily reads both of them out of the blue, they're Evil. Zero TKN mention and TKN is their teammate. LG97 #2 When asked who they'd vote out, picks Aeo, and then sort of mentions TKN sus but waves it off. LG97 #3 Context here is different, but I just wanted to highlight I think you're right that E!JNV isn't gunshy of mentioning E!TKN, but keeping him in a weird null semi-sus place but never voting on him. MR67 #1 Early mention of Aeo and Archer when asked for reads. Absolutely nothing on TKN. MR67 #2 I'm struggling how to assess this with regard to JNV now - their mention of bad vibes everytime they play with TKN is untrue. LG97 demonstrates this was not only the case, but they smuggled TKN into a null- type position and while mentioning they'd vote TKN, never did. @Ooklil the Wei Just to be clear, I'm bringing this up as a follow-up to your point, especially because I think you're stronger on post analysis than I am. But I think this should re-open E!TKN possibilities in a relevant way. I don't disagree that both of you pointed out there's value in taking the SK out anyway, but the problem here is that one way or another, we're sort of stuck in a position where While I went with the TKN plan because Araris backed it up and I respect his E!instincts, I'll point out asking me to self-protect is actually kind of pointless - if I really did follow the plan, which I am not going to officially confirm nor deny - there is no way in hell it resolves the flip issue. It tells the Elims that killing anyone not me is going to be successful, meaning two green flips either way. Even worse, this cycle, it guarantees that I'm the one NK target that will definitely go through because I can't be protected any longer, so what point is there in 'keeping me alive so I can make another save'? (I'll note of course this requires me to have followed the plan, which the Elims won't know if I did.) And while TKN could be busy, I also just distrust the lack of solving energy at lylo or the sudden bad vibes deal. I don't feel you voting him is itself an Elim thing, here and now. The whole pushing TKN has always been the LHF problem at an lylo, he's emphatically not LHF. I'll add the Araris tunnel didn't feel right to me into C4 - like hello, you've have vote analysis, why are you pushing Araris yet again? Is there nothing that changes your mind here? In what sense? How so? Yeah it looks like it. Look, at endgame, I don't know if you can do TWTBAW with regard to SK focus anymore - it just feels like you gotta call a spade a spade at this point. Am willing to vote Neil if there's some way to re-assess on TKN but he kind of feels like the best shot to me at this point.

So are you selecting B. Because I actually think the simplest answer is C. Edited to add: Like again—either A. you came in with a half-hearted (you diluted your JNV statements) post on JNV meant to distance and passively bussed them, B. Despite deepwolfing, Neil made a half-hearted CW trying to drag people to you despite also unvoting and no one taking the train earlier, or C. TKN bussed. I geddit if there are other reasons to V!read TKN (and that's my point of asking this) but just in isolation, postulating a bus here seems to involve the least absurdities.

But I don't see what the actual gamestate has to do with feeling good or feeling bad. Concrete states of affairs in the world don't care about how I feel about them. It'd be convenient with my annoyance with Illwei if she were Elim but it doesn't make that true. I'm concerned/not sure why you are using that proxy as your indicator for truthlikeness at lylo. I'm concerned with getting that Elim here, not getting someone I feel good about getting. I've seen as many MLs at lylo which happened because Village kneejerk voted the main suspect and didn't take time to rethink. Case in point, Archer MLing Az with everyone else, Drake and I MLing xino over Archer, and Archer MLing Maili over me. Ultimately, at the end of the day, all we can do is our best, and despite many Villages making mistakes at lylo, I'd like to think the dead will condemn us more for not trying than for trying our best and getting it wrong. Which is? 1. I don't buy TKN's arguments about Illwei's entry speed. TKN was fifth voter on JNV and it's easily possible the Village would've had cold feet as it was a stable 5 train. Not this wasn't a wrong assessment as Aman and I did hop off. Could Illwei have swung it? Maybe, maybe not. Thread consensus felt very locked - people were tired of rethinking and it's hard to see even an aggressive entrance do more than tie her very tightly to JNV with potentially little reward. I'd also point out that there's a fundamental problem here: Coffee flipped SK, Araris and Aeo flipped Village. The last two I expected, but this means that when you relook at the C3 trains, you're forced to accept one of three pretty uncomfortable conclusions: A. Illwei simply showed up, made some half-hearted posts, and dropped a post saying she felt JNV was Village without deflecting the trains to mimic her V!meta. B. You parked a vote on AlphaWei, never tried to find another train, and then had a sus vibes late post telling everyone AlphaWei was probably red but also unvoting AlphaWei even as you tried to redirect traffic to a dead train. C. TKN bussed JNV somewhat after Rollovet (the halfway mark) and never looked back. I feel they're all uncomfortable because they offer some level of absurdity: A. Illwei is generally anti-bussing. Or rather, it takes more to make her reach bus point than most. B. This is probably the most half-hearted way of saving a player possible. That being said, Drake just scammed me by doing a half-hearted tercer save so what do I know. C. It's difficult to see this make sense with TKN's play but you can argue parsimony here. 2. Negative arguments because 90% of the pro-Illwei arguments are "E!Illwei would do X instead of Y," e.g. "E!Illwei wouldn't just casually leave JNV to hang like that" and "E!Illwei would've been more proactive C4." At lylo, I simply don't trust negative arguments any longer (hence my current lack of willingness to continue that provisional V!read of Illwei) because of the indicators that the fact we haven't found the last Elim suggest (wrt the absurdities) that something somewhere, some assumption has gone wrong - which also suggests the behavioural models are wrong and calls into question the negative arguments. 3. Non-provisional, because - and this applies to Illwei too - I'm willing to file active good vibes posters away and V!lean them in early game. It is no longer possible to do so at lylo without a stronger reason to, hence my talking about provisional and non-provisional reasons. The issue and the reason why I don't feel provisional arguments work anymore at this stage is pretty much why despite Illwei's assertion she's so Village she should be cased, I don't buy it - I feel it's the opposite problem right here. Yes, TKN could be bussing, but that vote on JNV is at least One Villagery thing he's done, and despite re-reading, I don't have as much to go on as both of you without again, negative arguments. I don't think there was that much appetite. I've come off relooking the votes last night and Ash was the main competitor. Maybe Araris at some point and TKN did in fact say he'd want either JNV or Araris dead, but keep in mind the main votes were: you on Alphawei, and Coffee on Araris, who retracted after challenge. Formally, this is the votecount when TKN goes on: He shifted from saying he'd support an Aeo train to either Araris or JNV, but voted JNV as Araris was unlikely to be exed, which I think is reasonable. He earlier commented that he felt an Aeo exe was also unlikely given demonstrated unwillingness to actually commit to exeing her. Possible his view might've been different if Aman had stayed on Aeo. Is it? I'm sorry Neil, but I kind of think it's BM to respond to suspicion on you with "I am so obviously Village that this should not be questioned and you're tilted if you sus me, go sleep because you're delusional." You can argue it's a legit Elim tactic, sure, but even so. If you're not interested in convincing me otherwise, or even assuming a basic good faith approach to this game, I don't think I should be expected to be begging you to convince me otherwise, or to also commit to a good faith approach on you. Respect goes both ways. [Edited to add: I'm aware aggressive approaches like this are more common at MU, and it's yet another reason MU and I don't get along. I'll candidly say a decent slice of MU players are actively BM to me.] Edited to add 2: I'd add there's another layer here, which is the whole 'ah but you can't sus me without a Correct Case!' Yeah sorry, I find preoccupation with that more Elim than anything - see Biplet in LG83, or Mat in a bunch of games. Also, on you - other stuff, e.g. I felt the AlphaWei vote was so parked it's questionable what you got out of it, TKN has a weird post where he susses you because he says he tried the same thing and got more out of it than you (weird because if you ever flipped Village then yeah it feels like TKN being self-congratulatory which feels off) but given he's also sussing you, feels like a wash. In general, things like - as Aman caught - you floating an under-the-radar team but then calling for attention on TKN and Wiz rather than Ash and JNV, suggesting you'd look at Ash but not doing so, asking Aeo about JNV (but yourself never mentioning them since or committing to a view on them.) If you want me to take your C1 at face value btw, it reads like you were trying to splinter-train off in case Ash got voted, and appealing to Raven and Aman does mean you called an Ash voter off Ash. Why so?

Oh yeah - so like a timeloop within a timeloop?

Self-awareness: 200%, statement of the problem.

Striker, Drake, and I would like our lives back, but we appreciate this

I'm commenting about Neil, not you. I've just come off from reading C3 and think Neil looks a bit worse than you from it but both of you just look pretty negative from it. I'd note here that being condescending after asserting you are so Village no one should question it in a classical case of circular reasoning is certainly how you convince people to decide it's worth keeping their vote on you I'm certainly happy to just leave it on you and take the rest of the cycle off. Actually you know what? Thank you for the advice - I'll do just that. See all of you after rollover, or after the Aftermath. Goodnight everyone