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Kasimir

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Everything posted by Kasimir

  1. Kasimir
    According to Tallybot (yes, yes, orgo vcs but why should I bother when we have Mat for that >:P) I'll double up on Illwei as I believe in ties and think I'm okay with V!Araris for now. Edited to add: @Ookla the Bald: Additional question. You said you'd've voted Cash. Today, you're pushing Araris. Why? Edited to add 2: Flagged this but forgot. Why should we? An Elim wants us to hit the SK (yes, I'm aware I was talking about blue before red but then I remembered something really important.) We win and end this game when we exe the last Elim. This means that all things being equal, we really shouldn't be SK hunting. We get the Elim, game over. We win. I was sitting on this, but: Our win condition for this cycle as Village: exe red. The SK's win condition for this cycle is to prevent us from exeing red and also not get exed. The Elim's win condition for this cycle is to prevent us from exeing them, while thinning our numbers, and somehow not dying to the SK kill, so not appearing too Villagery. SK hunting is the wrong way to go. The point of me asking the questions I'm asking is because your SK candidates are naturally players you shouldn't be emphasising. They don't give us the chance to lock this game down and win this cycle. In fact, they probably help with exclusion, unless you think a player is likely to be E or an SK.
  2. Kasimir
    About 3AM thereabouts my time - brief post, lurked in thread for a while after that. Sorry, I wish I could be more specific, but yeah, I'm tired. The point is that the Cash/Araris thunderdome was stable by that point and for a decent chunk of EoD - JNV being present especially but unwilling to vote indicates they didn't feel any real need to IMO. In turn, that probably suggests they felt disengaged from the ongoing exe, i.e. teammate not on the chopping block. Give me a sec and I'll edit in the post ref. Edited to add: Here's the JNV post. I think E!JNV hits the doc first and drops a quick post if Araris is this endangered. You could argue risk tolerance, but I don't feel that's the natural thought here, seeing JNV never returned. It reads more to me like JNV was content to stay out of it.
  3. Kasimir
    Is it? Araris is endangered. Ash and JNV, emphasis JNV, return. Neither of them feel the need to vote. I'd note as well that the E!kill patterns so far actually don't fully fit Araris's kill meta IMO.
  4. Kasimir
    Fair, it do be that way. Sorry Aeo, pretty sure you're V but I have an SK slot I'm making considerations about Edited to add: Aeo - FWIW I don't disagree. I think this does explain why Coffee was relatively unwilling to buy Aman's fakeclaim though, because I'd honestly thought it plausible within Aman's range, especially given Aman's proficiency at gambits and the fact it was coming on the heels of an obvious fakeclaim.
  5. Kasimir
    It wasn't an immediate reaction. My reflex was to do so, and I found your hesitation strange.
  6. Kasimir
    Any reason you didn't want to unvote? I felt it seemed plausible on the face of it: it's rough for an Elim or SK to claim Brandon here. I guess Coffee would be screwed either way, but being cced in a thunderdome is a death sentence. Obviously, if there's a cc, the calculus changes.
  7. Kasimir
    @Ookla the Resolute? Coffee barring a cc. Edited to add: Coffee, I still want to know your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate. Being Brandon doesn't give you an excuse to avoid Village work.
  8. Kasimir
    This makes no sense. If you are claiming to be Village and we kill you during the 2-1-1, we lose. There is no world in which you should be okay dying next Turn but not this one. Keeping you alive doesn't help us PoE-wise - it does help us if I survive as I'm very clearly either Village or the SK, and Sanderson should claim next Turn, leaving us (if he doesn't die), two easy clears. The fact you now deny being Sanderson raises enough red flags for a Spanish matador. I am going to repeat my question. If you are a Villager, prove it. I want to know your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate.
  9. Kasimir
    To be clear, you are claiming Brandon Sanderson?
  10. Kasimir
    @neil the beguiled @Ooklil the Wei- To what extent would you say faking slips/derps are within Neil's E!range? Feel there's a potential way to narrow this down but it depends - I'd never bet the farm on his being derpclearable, but I want a relative gauge in mind. Edited to add 2: Tbh, I don't. Edited to add: Gonna do something a bit unusual. Maybe tactically bad, IDK. For science! (As Neil would say.) @neil the beguiled @Ookla the Resolute @Ooklil the Wei @Coffeecat @Ookla the Bald @Winnie the Pookla Give me your top SK candidate and your top Elim candidate and why. Edited to add 3: I have thoughts about the road ahead for the Village. But for now: Mr Sanderson, I know I mentioned I wanted to die but I'd like to request protection for this cycle, as I feel I might be of use into the endgame. I think it's worth forcing a kill within PoE if we can. Thanks!
  11. Kasimir
    LOOK MAT. LOOK. I DON'T SUMMON THE HORSEMEN OF THE EXE ON MERE GUT OKAY I LIKE MY VOTES TO IDK HAVE OOMPH I DON'T LEAN FULL INTO THREADWHIPPING / EXE SUMMONING MODE UNLESS I HAVE MORE TO GO ON THAN "tbh JNV just feels off and I can't explain why but #trustmeok I know V!JNV when I see them" SMDFH
  12. Kasimir
    Oh yeah sorry I forgot: one more consideration was how JNV acted towards them. JNV was unusually understanding towards three players: Aeo, Archer, and TKN. With Archer flipping Village and Aeo looking pretty Village to me, I think there's prima facie reason to think JNV's ignoring TKN was in fact Elim TMI acting rather than shielding a teammate. I do feel it felt like a slip/oversight, rather than deliberate, and in LG97, JNV had no issues shading TKN.
  13. Kasimir
    Alright. I'm still in the middle of busy stuff, but I want to try to drop things for people to engage with and to keep discussion flowing. So: Mind explaining your thoughts here? Purely off-the-cuff was my disclaimer, as I haven't had the time to sit down and do analysis yet - boils down to the JNV vote. I'm not confident JNV was bussed, though I've to actually redo vote analysis later on factoring in all the rest. Given JNV self-pressed on Ash, it feels a bit like the team preferred an Ash wagon, and I think TKN could comfortably have voted Ash. I'm not saying I'm as confident of V!him as I am of Aeo, but I think it's a good look and I'm not interested in litigating that when there are more suspicious players to push. Also, there's Araris's reasoning FWIW which I'm keeping in mind - the Elims know that both JNV and Ash are Evil, and they know that the SK may very well shoot one of them. Now of course, the SK is going back to shoot people who look like Village the next cycle. It's a no brainer because they're - I'm an idiot yes sorry we just kill the last Elim and end this, what am I talking about, I was drunk. Keep forgetting how our wincon relates to the SK. Anyway, where was I? The point is that I don't feel the last Elim wants to look Villagery - SK risk is real. It's a bit of an IKYK on some level but that's my intuition right now. Defer to @Winnie the Pookla as I feel his E!sense is sharper than mine and if V, value his instincts here. Mind clarifying it? I gotchu man
  14. Kasimir
    I think you mean NKed, and it's gotten more complicated since I just came off an offsite game where for whatever reason the Elims Just Did Not Want To Kill Me and I was getting seriously confused/trolled/questioning reality at every step. There's a variant of this ruleset where it actually is but IMO it's too bastard - the GM can break the rules, there are no Evil players at all, and the Village wins once the GM is exed. I don't feel it's as fun to test as what Drake and I are testing for here, and also, I think that'd invoke too much LG97 trauma.
  15. Kasimir
    They're going to switch off tomorrow or day after if it's any consolation, but the game will be over by then I think?
  16. Kasimir
    It's in clarifications but no - that's a Night death, not an exe. No, as the Madman is a Village role.
  17. Kasimir
    Night Zero: The Mist Creeps In The Wheel of Time turns and Ages come and go, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth returns again. What was, what will be, and what is, may yet fall under the Shadow. The small village of Helgen is sheltered from the Blight by the mountains of Kandor and the swords of the Borderlanders. This is not your war: most of you have grown up in Helgen and will die there as well. Last night, the rain mingled with the spreading mist. They hung a Darkfriend in the village square, that morning. You remember it. Old Sargon, no one quite believed he had it in him. But he went to the gibbet, his head held high, screaming the Dark One’s name on his lips. That was the dawn. Last night, the mountain rain mingled with the soft white mist spreading through Helgen, blanketing it in a strange forgetfulness. This morning… Old Sargon walks into the village inn and laughs and orders a mead. Not dead. Not rotting. Still breathing, Light burn him and damn him forever. You are used to the Blight, to fell things. Sometimes, the Dark One reaches out from his prison and touches the world. This though? You don’t know what to make of it. Old Sargon claims a Forsaken walks among you, that Helgen is doomed. And still, the mist creeps in. The Night has begun! It will end in under twelve hours (sorry for the delay, number crunching took time) on 19th December at 0130hrs SGT [GMT+8]! GM PMs are currently being dispatched. Please be patient and alert us if you do not receive anything by 1415hrs SGT [=GMT+8.] We are announcing that the Village loses if they exe more than one Villager! The Darkfriends win if the Forsaken is not exed in three cycles! (i.e. X=3) Clarifications Player List
  18. Kasimir
    Am I?
  19. Kasimir
    Sign-ups have closed! Please hang in there while we get everything sorted The engines are not on fire!
  20. Kasimir
    You have Illwei in your suspect pool? Sorry, I'm tired - Remove Illwei. I think she could be E and ascribe it some low probability but SK!Illwei is delusion To be clear I suppose, and maybe showing my hand a little, I think it's worth exeing candidates in particular who have high odds of being Evil or an SK (as in ticks both boxes.) We're functionally dealing with two SKs now, one hopefully a little more connected than the other, so there's something to be said for applying pressure on the SK now. Ultimately though, I still don't want this to consume too much of our energy - blue before red, blue or red before green is where I'm at with regard to flip priority. (If it's an E/V possibility for that player, I'm less interested compared to E/SK possibilities is what I'm getting at.)
  21. Kasimir
    8 works better than 7 for our testing purposes, tbh. If you really can't, dwai, but not going to turn down an extra sign-up otherwise!
  22. Kasimir
    Off the cuff thoughts with zero analysis whatsoever: -Likely V!TKN -Likely V!Aeo @neil the beguiled Sorry short answer as I'm busy rn and can't give it the rethink yet—it felt as though you were trying to galvanise takers onto Illwei while not wanting to commit to a CW since it was dead. In other words, my gut react on the spot and my reason for pushing back was because I distrusted what felt like attempts to CW hunt. Has anyone voted Coffee yet? If not I'm looking in: <Coffee, Illwei, Neil> rn. Disagree with Aeo's NKA—completely ignores the Ravenclaw point validated by Devo's flip. I'm not relitigating this again. Araris maybe V Coffee
  23. Kasimir
    Just a reminder: whatever you do, don't post a meme of an ongoing game please. Post-game is fair play! #GMModeEngaged
  24. Kasimir
    Aman You'll still be the real BranAman Sanderson to me bro. Sorry guys no time for analysis rn. Will be back later.
  25. Kasimir
    Feels like an IKYK. With AlphWei having barely anything beyond a pulse and being just this shade of less filter-dodgy than Illwei, suggesting Elims would pile onto an obvious LHF train that didn't do anything is a strange train of thought when Ash was being more obviously egregious about it. Feels a tad self-congratulatory if I'm being honest. Weakly, enough to make me not want to vote her today but you're free to pressure her if you want to Something something Stick's motto here. My credentials: just came out of a QF being scammed by E!Illwei, saw some slight behavioural shifts. Would I bet the farm? No. That's why I'm self-describing it as a weak read. Do you feel that's concrete? It's a you call. Illwei just subbed into a slot that could barely be said to have signs of life - stating here you want concrete thought is strange and artificially raises a burden of proof that makes me question your sincerity in asking. Yeah I know I said I was gonna sleep. Was finishing something up, saw this, and felt like I had to log back in to say something because it was ??? Everything I'm reading in this bolded section I'm quoting demonstrates an artificially inflated burden of proof based off a test that was an isolated vote IMO and I question why Illwei in particular merits this higher burden of proof; is this E!Illwei trauma? Is this train splinter tactics? Don't feel an isolated vote that would have looked opportunistic by any measure is indication the slot should be red. Turn this around and apply Neil's own tactics to himself: does it smell right by this elevated standard of evidence? If no, why this and why now? Goodnight all. Done for real.
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