Kasimir

I'm working through it. Genuinely not sure, need time. Do not want to commit prior to finalising vote analysis because I think timing and apparent wagon viability matters here wrt hypothesising. Will promise to get back by Rollovet (24 hour mark) if my exhaustion is unkind, as soon as possible/earlier if I can? Am working on it I promise. And yes, by which I mean I do want to try my own NKA though I'd prefer Ash's over mine, but I need the vote progression analysis done first for timing reasons. Can I ask what this means? (Highlighted and bolded.) Devo would bring it up as an objection, and the teammate would need to probably have a stronger view about it. IDK, it wouldn't be hostile or violent - when I say I recall this from being E with Devo, I think it was back in a MR she, Fifth, and I were Elims together. We wanted to NK Mat, or considered a returning player (IDR the full context, can pull it up later as I think speed more relevant now in your exhausted state), Devo pointed out that wasn't cool, I said, "Yes, but half the game is returning players or new players so our choices are limited." And Fifth and I outvoted her. I think. Maybe Devo remembers. I'll check later. I think to me this is more indicative Raven is likely a solo SK kill. I struggle to see an Elim team not have at least one regular who would point out the issues with going Raven. Like is that impossible? No - it just requires a convoluted situation where a non-regular swapped the kill late before the regular could object and so on, but yeaaaaah. There's a reason it became an unspoken taboo, and that's to do with how welcoming the community was. I know, I know it's a complicated conversation and there are many other factors to what's offputting and what's not, but I do think it's harsh even as we suffer from playerbase renewal to be killing new players early if there's no urgent tactical need for it and all that. I don't know I'm frustrated, just exasperated because that was a needless N1 back in LG98. But yeah. There's definitely a potential pool, I'll draw it up when doing NKA. Ha. Hahahahahhahaa. I need to introduce you, my good sir, to a meme from Stick I kind of think Araris is just being Araris. But I tend to project the alignment I want Araris to be (Village bro please ) rather than look at what is there. So I really do not/would not trust my judgement on Araris even though I try. I will say I hesitate on whether E!Araris would've just voted Archer like that. It's a lot bolder than I would expect from him. A Ravenclaw kill would be entirely within his targeting MO though - he opens with low info kills (I'm presuming this for the moment, as opposed to aggressive control/threat kills.) Edited to add: Yes, please rest well! Will do. I've some OOG stuff as well that will be preoccupying me so will attempt to pareto principle my thread presence where possible. With regard to Araris - nulls are my default tier. He was stuck there because I had no reason to V read him but also felt what I saw was...normal for him. I went back and forth about whether I thought E!Araris would be as aggressive on Archer (kind of doubt it) but at the same time, recalled he noted once that E!him has a tendency to be more annoyed on issues of play than V!him, which stood out to me a bit in the sharp tone of his response to Archer. So I shrugged and nulled him. Edited to add 2: Neil, maybe let me be candid here. I think - and this is me committing prior to completing vote re-analysis on rest - that I generally disagree with your and Aman's approaches on a broad level, largely because I feel and IDK if it's weird I feel that way wrt Aman because I feel both of you are - overexpecting from some players. It felt true of Ravenclaw, and I'm going to quietly admit it feels to me to be the case with Wiz too. Now, the thing I will admit is that I sometimes cut too much slack to players being weird when the simple answer is that they're just Evil. This was the crux of the clashes between me and Stick in our last QF because she asked too many questions (sorry, meme for Stick's amusement) because she felt I was essentially doing a purity read and I felt she was hyperfixating on low/casual/moderately experienced players just being inexperienced/susceptible/human/fallible in a way that made me think she was trying to LHF. Maybe both of you are right, and I'm fine giving both of you the room to work and re-evaluating as things go on, which is why I'm not intervening. This is sort of in the back of my head as well in terms of yesterday's trains and so on.

On the lam - technically slang for 'running from the law' but I'm using it here in the context of 'was an exe candidate.' I'm still compiling the votes but my glance at EoD suggested Ravenclaw was in solid contention for a bit. I'm trying to check/quantify how much because if so, this might tell us about the timeband Ravenclaw's killer had to be around in. But even without that, just being a sus candidate...yeah. I can categorically state here that unless there's something odd with that team, a Raven kill is not going to be in Devo's wheelhouse FWIW. Can't say about Ravenclaw, but unless Devo is metabreaking or has teammates who strongly overrule this (my experience in a MR being E with her), Devo always wants to avoid killing players who have been killed quite a few times before, new players, and returning players. She's one of the few who has the strongest restrictions on her kill MO, but is absolutely into early low info kills. Raven's relatively early death in LG98 (admittedly not in the QF), but also relative newness IMO (first game in LG98s) is likely to influence Devo against a Raven kill solo. Yeah...but Raven's also still largely in the sheeping phase and learning to form suspicions phase. I would actually say I'd consider TKN more of a wildcard than Raven. Like as a maf, I'd totally want this guy around in my final few? (SORRY RAVEN LOOK I'M TIRED I'M TRYING DIPLOMACY BUT ALSO. I'M STILL TIRED.) Edited to add: @neil the beguiled - This might be a stronger statement to commit to, and I don't feel as confident of it as the Devo statement, but I'm struggling to see any world in which any regular (i.e. 'has played often/recently') player here is willing to sign off on a Raven kill. There's a reason Raven getting N1ed was so striking in LG98b - it's a strong taboo that was broken. LG98 was rerun, which is why there's a LG98a and a LG98b, and Raven also played Archer's QF69. This makes it 2-3 games Raven played, one which ended on C1, one which he was N1ed in, and one which he actually got to play. I'm genuinely struggling here to see any regular consider this an acceptable kill when there are many other targets. Maybe, just barely. But in light of Raven also having been N1ed on his technical first game? Oof.

Just saw the edit, edited into my post unfortunately I'll recopy for ease of reference: Well, that's the point of having a Village with varied skillsets, right? We cover each others' weaknesses. I think I'd die in chat mafia, one minute mafia with Aman and Stick and a bunch of others already killed me because my brain just goes ???? and empties out Raven's really new and really unlucky actually. They keep getting N1ed in direct violation of new player protection. To me, it's definitely a low info kill for Raven, and I think unlikely Raven would die soon, so it's low info + safe I suppose (i.e. if you had to park a kill and go), but Ravenclaw interests me because Ravenclaw was on the lam for part of the cycle, which is a headspace I'm trying to get into - why make that shot? And maf or SK? I am trying to be diplomatic here: Raven's getting used to the idea that voting off the bat isn't itself sus. It's fine, we all start somewhere, but I actually kind of don't feel that fits the profile of even a potential kill, as phrased.

It's memeing. You absolutely should not put anything in there you aren't prepared for people to open I'm down for that. Working on the vote analysis but I've saved it in my GM PM to avoid last cycle's disaster so we're good. ....I need more sleep >> Okay, yeah, I'll...take it. Yeah. Okay, some context. NKA is done very rarely here. Ash is the best at it, which is why I @ him. I trust him at it over me, and he and I both converged on Devo as a suspect in the last MR. (I'm sure Aeo or Mat are just dying to say again that Aeo made the kill choice, which is true, but Ash's analysis still found Devo and Mat. I only found Devo via NKA.) The two main kill typologies you'll see are what I call noise/control kills (e.g. taking out me or Archer) and low info kills (i.e. taking out players who've said or interacted little so that there's not much you can work on for their death.) There's a third one which appears but more rarely, e.g. fear/threat kill. Which is what it says on the tin. It's more rare now because there's a bit of an understanding in the community that we try to avoid doing too many fear/threat kills - Aman used to keep dying so early he couldn't really get into a game. (I'm bracketing other issues Aman faced - they're not relevant, I just want to acknowledge I'm aware the meta hasn't always been kind to Aman.) Okay, to be honest, that's a fascinating set of skills to have I'd like to be better at those things, but unfortunately I get the best results from vote analysis, so I guess that's what I'm stuck with. Yeah - I think I've said this before in a couple of out-of-game settings, but the thing players forget is that I'm not the person to go to for god reads. It's just that if I'm Village and you don't kill me by lategame, I'll probably correct for my mistakes by then. I'm not in it to get it right from D1, I'm just in it to revise my beliefs appropriately where possible. (Feel free to ignore it, I'd say less self meta, more just acknowledgement of my weaknesses as a player.) "Sia lah, it's not a game," Kasim said, grimly. The other SE players in a circle didn't really seem to care. "It's your life and mine." And yet he was here, for all the good it would do. What did it make him? A fool, Kasim thought, bitterly. A fool who apparently thought all he needed was words to convince the others. Convince them to what? Get out. Get help. Try to recce, or link up with one of the groups trying to break their way out and get help. They needed police. They needed actual professionals, not the pretense that some game they'd played a few times over the years on the Internet was going to help them. You thought you knew the others, maybe. But faces were a lot harder than words on a screen. Names on a screen. He'd never known Elandera, but she was apparently one of them and dead. Maybe that was where it came from, he thought. You had to step up, if no one else did. The note on Elandera... He didn't recognise the print. Didn't think anyone did. Whoever it was, it was planned. Coordinated. How the hell did a bunch of bloody Internet mafia nerds stymie a whole con? His mind whirled. Edited to add: Several factors. No time/bandwidth to process/do EoD results. For context, < 2 hours of sleep so brain was screaming NOPE at any attempt to process anything new so I ran off last cycle thoughts, mostly. Could I just revote JNV? Sure. Would that be constructive? No. I was already rethinking Devo. And I remembered that a lot of the time I was reading the thread, I saw Coffee/Silber was there as well, and I remembered how fast Silber responded to the last few pings, indicating again they are there and actively watching. All of that seemed like a player who was just lurking but not wanting to get involved and it feels like a good under-the-radar place to pressure.

Yes Mr Sanderson sir, okay slep well ThreadPMBro Oh Neil you asked. It's uh, a meme thing that emerged from I think LG91 and MR56 as a combination. PMs were generally locked in LG91 so players used spoiler boxes to send each other PMs and pretended they were extremely private. And it just caught on as a meme. MR56 was blackout and flipless and also no PMs so Aman and I went kayana and turned the thread into our personal PM space and bounced thoughts off each other. So yeah.

I... Why am I going all over the place over Aman @Winnie the Pookla Current Aman read btw? And yeah I intend to do a full vote analysis but need to save my strength for it as I'm exhausted from the work stuff and the last time I did an extensive vote analysis when this knackered, I MLed Archer and stuff. Cash is doing a lot of lurking I see. Also feel eh about Silber's vote sensitivity too. Lurked and showed up right after getting voted on.

Aman calls himself the King of Fake Roleclaims for a reason. I'd add a PhD in Reaction Tests to his qualifications and am sitting here, sipping my tea and smiling at the thought of potential Elim consternation about who @Amanuensis is going to protect each cycle while they can't push him out in the exe. Yeah. This is where I really need to re-read to get a baseline of Ravenclaw again, because, suffice to say, I struggle with where to pitch Ravenclaw tbh. They are actually fairly new here, and while they have made good plays on occasion, I think it's necessary to control for their inexperience. Which, okay, yes, I've said I should do the re-read last cycle, just had some time/energy issues. I'll try to get down to it by tomorrow. I do it on occasion to diversify. My main problem tbh is that I'm a vote analyst by inclination - I'm actively bad with post reads/analysis, which is why I struggle with Aeo in ways you aren't. I use meta as a crutch and have been trying to learn to get better with post reads, tone/vibe reads etc because otherwise I can't really engage with the game until C2 and that's not really ideal for Village. I don't disagree about manipulated wagonomics FWIW but for me it's just about self-correcting over time and with info to correct false assumptions/projections about the votestate. I implied this but to say it explicitly: part of the 'welcome new to the forum players' schtick is that there's a powerful social convention against killing new and returning players, to let them get back into the community and have fun. So you were never in danger N1 at least. That's it from me quotewall-wise - I want to do vote analysis and I'm kind of low on energy today due to sleep deprivation so I'm hoping to do less wallposts and more contemporary engagement. Sorry about my wet sock energy. We all have RL

Do you believe the kill orders took a potentially-chaotic EoD into account? Specifically I'm curious whether you hypothesise there was a hasty switch off Archer from someone as EoD went into flux.

Kas: "tbh I'll go sleep." Kas: "I've been working all night." Kas: "Besides, how bad can it get—" Kas: 1. Coffeecat while I process whatever happened. 2. Sorry Neil, reply later - I'm running off less than two hours of sleep for RL reasons. Want to get back when I'm in better shape. 3. @Ashbringer - you're my NKA guy. What do you have for us?

It's not just you. Their Aeo read is whack and the last time they had that was LG97, though I suppose Aeo was huffing less chaos juice that game minus the 'exe Szeth' stuff.

1. I think the point at least for Aman is that he suspects Ash is going Dingo. Ash has been in thread a few times, but hasn't said much beyond the SK engagement. However, it's definitely possible that Ash just got overwhelmed by thread volume which can be rough to handle (which is why Aman pointed out if he can manage it, Ash should probably be able to.) 2. Please, seriously, stop. I really get how you feel because I am not sure I am okay with pushing JNV despite my suspicions going there and I'm not going to enjoy if an Araris or Aman push becomes necessary. (We'll classify ethical concerns with bro ones.) You know your own alignment. You've mentioned regretting self-voting in terms of what it did to us in the QF, and the D1 claim in the LG. So...why do it again and create another nope chapter? Volunteering yourself as the CW instead of Ash is the least productive thing here because while Cash is willing to take you up on it, if you are V, you are guaranteeing us a ML on C1. Please make an alternative train or propose one. ...No one @ me about my suicidal tendencies in-game I'm trying to be responsible here. 3. Tbh Ash signed up for it anyway. Which is my way of saying, fundamentally, that you can't control what other people do, both on Ash's part, and the people voting Ash, and offering yourself as a train instead isn't productive here because it doesn't really fulfil anyone's goals and probably generates more noise and confusion for them (assuming good faith voting.) People aren't voting Ash because there's no better target. People are voting Ash for PoE reasons and so on. It's not like a 'there must be blood' world. Again, no one @ me about my suicidal tendencies in-game I'm trying to be responsible here. Smdfh. Why has your read of Archer shifted?

Is there a reason you're particularly defending Ash, and is there a train you'd rather make?

Oh God no please go study for the last final. French Kings go I believe in u o7

I'm admittedly back to questioning if I'm once again LG84 tunnelling on you as you had a gambit response there that threw me as well and that I couldn't get over for most of the game until you killed an Elim. Maybe I should take my own challenge to Archer seriously and accept I'm just not good at projecting/modelling your assumptions. Mass PR claim (qua PR not in detail.) Mass regular claim. So there are two buckets. PRs taken at face value, so Village doesn't accidentally kill PRs and focuses on cleansing within the regular bucket. PRs try to Stay Alive and use abilities wisely. There are a bunch of tactical considerations there. Don't ask me why I've heard of this.

What if I don't want to. I play to chill with my bros. Seriously what's the point of it if you're Village and I ML you. I think so. I feel like you tend to wobble more and I also feel like you tend to get - caught up on things, maybe. I don't know the right word for it. Like fishbones. Like people will do weird things and it'll catch you and you'll be aware of that. Your last Aeo read was almost opposite-valenced from how you'd read that I guess. Maybe. I think you're an outlier but what's really pushing me to you over the others is the fact your play feels viscerally different I guess, and here I am back to struggling to express what I'm catching and what I might be wrong about. And see, I hate that too because it's good if V!Aeo. Like...am I really pushing/wanting to exe you for making progress in terms of your play? That's sort of not cool too. Okay, for anyone who really doesn't like it, please ignore the ongoing Quokka Therapy session and don't let it affect your read of me I don't choose when to have paralysis issues these days I guess.

No, we just annoyed the heck out of everyone because we spoke nothing but German during that entire group PM And spec was laughing their arses off at how some people you were in chats with were going nuts while luckat was like 'Google Translate time!' and I said 'At last, my hour has come!' I'm being disingenuous when I mention the blacklist because the reason I got blacklisted didn't have anything to do with you.

To be clear, I literally mean sheep. If you think there's reasons, go for it. If you think I'm insane or whatever, then don't. Not saying "don't vote JNV but let me park a vote on them." Am saying that don't go "huh Kas thinks there's something weird about JNV so lemme join in" because I'm really not sure I'm correct. I just feel strongly enough that I keep getting something off about JNV's posts that I feel like it's worth pursuing this strand. I guess you can make a meta-argument that I feel strongly enough about this or can't let it go enough that I'm pushing it despite hating it so much. But yeah. Whatever. I don't know anymore. Ah. No. Just something that's been annoying me for maybe three to four games now. Easy cred? I feel that in that world, you'd be hypothesising E!partners largely in the ignore tier IMO. As much as Archer pooh-poohs it, it feels like where E!partners would be.

Oh yeah. Current reads. Tired so no Digimon today. If I'm still around next cycle, I'll add some. Light V: Archer with asterisk. - There's a defensive tic E!Archer has in certain situations when he's being gambity and challenged on it that I kind of wanna hang onto for longer term. I was thinking to see if it triggered. It didn't. Also good vibes off some posts. Can point to them eventually, I sort of saw them when doing backreading for the longpost but want to get it done. Null+: Wiz, Neil -Meta reasons for Wiz but don't feel strongly confident. -Ok with lean on Neil for now but strongly believe player of calibre can easily simulate regardless of alignment. Wait and see I guess. Null: Araris, Aeo, Aman, Ash, Coffee, Raven, Ravenclaw -Ash and Coffee clear lurkers. No disagreement about more pressure, lurking more egregious with Coffee than Ash. -Raven feels kinda disengaged relative to his previous three games ngl but IDK I feel confident enough on a read. -Re-revised Ravenclaw downwards because I'm struggling to understand Ravenclaw's mindset - not as confident of V lean anymore. Needs re-read. -I will never not want Araris to be V and I will never agree to C1 Araris and I'm just going to have to deal with that. -Honestly I'm getting some E stuff off Aman and I don't know how I feel about that. He's chunked into nulls because I do appreciate his thread confidence, but Aman's always good at passing the vibe check. I exed V!Aman close enough the last time and the idea of going through that again is no bueno. I don't really know why I signed up for this game. I thought I was recovered enough from all the breakdowns and paralysis but here I go again with my brain one white hot bar of NOPE at the idea of getting it wrong. I'm going to take my own advice to Aeo and disengage or try to get sleep. -If I don't mention you explicitly, you're in here. Null-: JNV, Devo -For reasons already listed, mostly. P.S. Explicitly prefer if people don't sheep me because I'll be really upset with myself if JNV is V and I misread them. I just can't really let go of the things that are bugging me but it's also uncomfortable to me for people to be regarding it as much of a case when I'm struggling to articulate, to a level I feel personally satisfied by, why I can't seem to stop staring at JNV, contra my usual 'stahp JNV is Village get off' swatting at people. It's doubly annoying because some of the content I want to cross-reference as comparators are in PMs which were deleted so that's real helpful, great work Kas. Gonna have to dig a bit more.

Not reaction test related Also, I'm generally of the view your assumptions are from a galaxy far far away here. They model a psychology I find pretty alien. I don't think that's AI, but I think that's throwing me for a loop when looking at your own analysis.

H'okay. Archer's Clusterchull on Stilts. 1. Preliminaries 2. Categorising Responses [RAW] (You'll want to skip this if you're short on time. I'll repeat this in a section below that summarises/organises the results more intuitively. This is me showing my working/actually working this out for myself.) 3. Categorising Responses [COLLATED] In summation: JNV. @JNV Quokka Buddy / @Amanuensis ThreadPMBro please talk some sense into me.

I can see this. I'm curious how fruitful you'd think the Coffee (if you missed it, Silberfarben) train would be though, given how long it's been since Coffee's played - Coffee likely knows if E that there's no appetite for exeing them. For anyone who wants context, I just remember a clash with Coffee from QF6. The one game that put me on a SE blacklist for a while I think the part that keeps catching me is, I don't understand why the inference is so clean. I felt a significant amount of doubt, and you yourself are /shrug on Archer. So why is it so clean? Do you have a Neil read btw? Dw I've saved the damned thing in my GM PM now >> TOP SECRET THREAD PM: Kas-Aman

No worries bro I get it!

WAIT AUTOSAVE HAS IT SOMEHOW NO ONE DO ANYTHING I'M C/PING INTO GM PM STAT I'M NOT LOSING IT AGAIN LIKE A DECENT CHUNK OF IT IS MISSING BUT WHATEVER MAN MOST OF IT IS THERE IT WAS LOST AND IS FOUND OMG THANK YOU SO MUCH RAVEN IT WASN'T EVEN CTRL Z BUT I'LL TAKE IT HOLY GOD THANK YOU SO MUC Edited to add: @Amanuensis - Staying away from the thread PMs for a bit as that accidentally got me to c/p over for a while and I want this post done even if it's not exactly that great. I'm curious what your current view of the thread etc is, i.e. where you're at. I've seen you mention who you're interested in voting, but I'm trying to understand I suppose. ...Aaaaand I nearly just reflexively c/ped again. Christ. I'm a menace.

...................... Frick's sake I was afk for a bit and working on an analysis post, fricking clicked the wrong fricking thing, reflexively c/ped to reply to Aman, and lost my fricking mega-analysis of the Archer thing. Fricking hell. I'm sorry. I'm done. I'm not doing this a second time what the fricking hell. Aman bro, I see you, and I'd do a thread PM reply but I'm really not in the mood right now because what the fricking hell I am so mad with myself. It was hours of work. I should've done the usual thing and c/ped in my GM PM, but noooo I had to tell myself it was almost done, and get distracted and now I've fricking gone and borked it and almost used words not allowed on the fricking Shard reflexively and had to c/p that crap out. God I hate this so fricking much right now ajghdfywjdksdhikl

Same, tbf. But the offsite community is helpful for that. Not saying SE is toxic, but playing in a super chill environment where I don't feel players are expecting anything from me at all and where I don't feel obligated to give Village everything/not let my teammates down has been very helpful for restoring perspective. It's just a game. It's okay to check out. Sleep matters more for your sanity, ability to analyse, and health, Village will take care of itself, and you reaaaaally aren't near being exed right now.