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Kasimir

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Everything posted by Kasimir

  1. Kasimir
    You specifically said this: Cash pointed out this was untrue: Trying to understand why this didn't have much impact. And I suppose a side of: You listed these people as who you'd vote on a Village flip from Cash and then go into JNV?
  2. Kasimir
    Nope. Intuitive answer is yes - kills probably proc at the same time as the exe, but he never answered that. Gonna suggest asking in GM PM at this point to make sure he catches it. Would do it myself but I'm having to make some final decision calls - I like the tie as I think it could be informative, but I take your point and don't believe there's more value to be gained by staying up tonight in the hopes someone or some scrap of analysis will bring clarity. In light of my known issues with the tie, I think strongly signalling my vote will move won't have the desired effect anyway. I don't really like the people on the JNV train but I guess it is what it is. JNV - sorry Quokka Buddy. Edited to add: Don't think I'll hang around tonight. Thread is clearly deserted, as Aman has pointed out, analysis has reached an end, and it's been almost a week of poor sleep and two all-nighters, and I start GMing tomorrow. I'm going to trust the Village to make the right decision and stop questioning everything and go sleep. I won't be back for rollover. Goodnight, everyone! o7
  3. Kasimir
    Thanks Aman. I needed that. My brain is just seeing the wall and hoping that if I beat myself against it, something else will come out of it, or that there's something I'm not doing or not taking into account. Part of me just doesn't want to be badly wrong and to damn Quokka Buddy here and it's a massive wall of nope in my head
  4. Kasimir
    I think/guess it feels rushed. Like 'here lemme say something so I can CW hunt.' I don't know bro. Maybe I'm kayana. I don't understand this game anymore I'm flipflopping on JNV more than prata. My gut keeps screaming something isn't right and my head says that I'm crazy and this is JNV's V!meta but it doesn't feel right
  5. Kasimir
    Tbh I can't relate this time, I just want myself dead so this can be someone else's problem I just wanna munch on nachos in the dead doc, crack a cold one, and watch as Village does the thing. But y'know, duty calls. So long as my watch has not ended, I continue to question everything. And doubt. And revise my reads a kazillion times because what the f is forum mafia even anymore Edited to add: @Amanuensis - To be clear, I mean vote, not go back to V leaning.
  6. Kasimir
    Noooot gonna lieeeeeee This makes me wanna go back to Quokka Buddy and I don't know whyyyyy
  7. Kasimir
    Do we have a more productive exe? I think even working with last night/morning Kas's credences for at most one in <Neil, Araris>, and maximum 3 in 4pool+ <Ash, TKN, JNV, AlphWei, Coffee>, there's little enough to go off in this case. I hate to say this but rampant inactivity from a full 25% of the game has just really screwed us this way. My problem with flipping Araris even if I think he could be E is just that by this criteria - we're back staring at 4pool+, with most of the late swings looking Village to me, so where are the Elims? (I know we've asked this and I'm rehashing it. But I feel like this is the statement of the problem.) I'll be candid that I've reserved some E!you possibilities at the back of my head, but pretty sure you're that way about me too. Bottom line for me in terms of my instincts as a player is that my foremost priority is always trying to prevent too much paranoia for Village-on-Village violence/self-cannibalism. If we're looking at a QF64 situation, then we're kinda gonna lose if we follow that playbook. Of course, the problem is it might not be a QF64 situation.
  8. Kasimir
    Care to elaborate? Edited to add: @Amanuensis - Curious about your thoughts on Coffee given potential preflipping there wrt Araris vote. Recognise I'm still on V!Coffee but want to hear other takes since you don't really agree.
  9. Kasimir
    Sigh. Honestly, I don't know I trust my own judgement anymore. I'd like to vote the player I think is most likely to be red since I don't wanna rely on a bailout from the SK, and DK if the SK is gonna or not. I recognise I am frustration voting Ash or protest voting Ash but part of me feels that Ash is being so unhelpful I can't bring myself to believe V!Ash wouldn't even offer an iota of help - it's SCDC (Same Crem Different Cycle.) I recognise pressure voting Ash probably won't change the situation rn, but yeah. I'm also uncomfortable with the sudden 5train on JNV and I'm uncomfortable that JNV hasn't said anything despite being on. I am alright with V!you, not sure about Neil anymore, alright with V!Illwei (weakly so for reasons mostly due to contrast with her previous E game IMO), think Illwei of all players is most likely to be able to read Snow, and so I'm fine with V!Snow here (also the D1 EoD, which I keep going back to, and the long conversation we had.) I am: Not a fan of Araris's lack of interest in solving - Cash vote felt lazy JNV case I've made, though I doubt myself Lean V on Coffee but really don't know anymore if I'm tripping or not wrt the posts I'm sharing I sort of like TKN's posts but IDK if I'm just giving him too quick a pass, which is why I'm curious about how Illwei and you feel about him. Again, a bit incredulous that Ash can make the effort to let us know he's alive but not do anything at all. Probably technically NAI but maybe frustration is making me E lean it. So I guess my pool rn is in <Neil, JNV, Coffee*, Ash, Araris> And yeah again, I think JNV is alright, really, as a shot, but... Sigh. 5train? With no resistance? Not a peep from JNV despite their being on? Oh and with E!Araris, kills feel weird ig. But not strongly on this. I should really vote someone else not Ash. I'm just...yeah. Edited to add: Glad to hear ThreadPMBro! Honestly at the opposite from you unfortunately: tired, feel I'm not thinking straight, and waiting on painkillers, so worried I'm just no longer making sense. Edited to add 2: Please ignore the Snow I meant Aeo I'm tired.
  10. Kasimir
    To be honest you are so different now I am just doing as you suggested and regarding you as a new player who has played some forum mafia before! But I'll be honest that my gut just doesn't feel right about the "weird reasoning = Elim" inference here so I'm asking others to weigh in. Wrt the Aeo and Araris issue — yeah. I just feel the Araris problem is who the team is meaning we are dealing with the low activity band and I'm confused enough about Araris IDK whether to press him. Aeo is the D1 but I admit 90% of my restraint also comes from having MLed her in three games so that might be unduly influencing me. Araris asked you this and I still want to know why you think E!Araris? Maybe something I'm missing. @Winnie the Pookla Why Cash again? You theorised that Cash was focused on you and Wiz but as Cash pointed out, he'd never even mentioned you. Did that not affect your view of Cash? I'm curious because I don't feel that vote had much behind it other than being self-pres. JNV feels E on the basis of analysis but I'm doubting because they're so inactive it seems hard to say plus 5train. FWIW as Araris noted, I try not to lock down until rollover and am open to being persuaded until then.
  11. Kasimir
    Ash Edited to add: @Ookla the Destined re-amplifying I'm guessing the answer is yes because since when does the damn Village get a break Edited to add 2: Of all people, I honestly think you are probably best placed to read Aeo right now. This isn't a comment about: But just the fact you're PHing in with a fresh set of eyes. I think three cycles of Aeo swinging on a Targaryen coin between high-octane chaos and solving just isn't helpful for anyone with regard to being able to read her (cf. @Amanuensis .) Edited to add 3: @Amanuensis / @Ookla the Bald I guess to sharpen my point about why i keep returning to that post: it feels like a mix of pointless and an already-made up mind. Araris should be self-presing regardless of his alignment. Half the vote statements there aren't adding anything concrete in terms of analysis - I recognise this is harsh, but there's a reason I also file my vote trackers as RAW because I recognise they're more me working things out. Suppose we accept that this is Coffee's working - well, what does this show? Overwhelmingly, it makes an Aeo sus case. So why is the conclusion E!Araris, therefore vote Araris? [Edit: Sorry - E!Aeo, therefore vote Araris.] I don't feel the reasoning process here really makes sense. I guess I was too tired/done last cycle to really nail down what about it bothered me, but I've laid it out now. At no point I think have we heard reasons why for Araris is suspicious, apart from that mention from self-pres. It doesn't mean that Araris isn't sus but it does mean Coffee's Araris push is as baseless as he accuses other votes of being. (Like, what's the point of that long chain of noting votes? Feels like it's there to pad and look constructive rather than actually being constructive. Subtracting that away, the analysis is fine but very firmly indicative of E!Aeo, which makes E!Araris just feel like a predetermined conclusion.) Why am I not voting Coffee? Two factors. 1. What I said about Ash. If E, I think Ash is simply never going to post unless given crucial incentive to do so. To some extent, I agree RL is NAI. He's mentioned briefly in past cycles about hoping to pop up if he's up for the exe. Every single cycle, we are giving him more time, only to get another promissary note. At this point, I just want to either flip him or actually see if he only is responsive to exe pressure. 2. I'm considering if I'm too fast to move off JNV but I do want to hear from JNV. Could still go back to them ig but 5-train? If we're at 6/3/1, are all Villagers really on JNV? (Araris???) 3. What I'm struggling to determine is whether I'm Creccio-ing Coffee tbh. I can see defeaters for the Araris push [Edit: ...Aman push I'm just gonna go to sleep again soddit] but I'm concerned that I'm essentially thinking Coffee for being Evil because his reasoning process is nonsense on stilts, which....yeah. I guess I could be okay with a Coffee vote depending but want your takes. Edited to add 4: TKN: I could see Coffee as an Aeo partner on further thought, but I think that Coffee's Araris push does not quite feel like distancing - Coffee could've shifted at D2 EoD and moreover, it's weird to distance by voting on Araris with a post that functionally says nothing about Araris. But I don't feel strongly about this. Edited to add 5: Also TKN: Right, lost the thought. Sorry. What I was meaning to add is that I slightly feel like E!Coffee would be more aware of the actual Araris voters, cf. their assumption I was voting on Araris at that time, but I don't feel very strongly about this.
  12. Kasimir
    >> bro ilu but also All the best with RL! Edited to add: VC according to Tallybot: Dislike dominance of JNV train, willing to sit a bit more, unsure. Really would like to hear from @JNV rn because something feels off and JNV was on Shard earlier so lack of JNV presence isn't reassuring. Edited to add: Honestly, is it worth just exeing Ash rn. He's gonna be a crapshoot at lylo at this rate if we end up there (sorry Ash, but at this point, I am no longer confident you'll be able to get back into the game as backlog continues to increase with each cycle) and it feels like I'm forced to either accept him as maybe Village or to be forced to make a decision on pretty much frick-all at lylo. (I'm not an optimist I guess and after more sleep am now more pessimistic about whether I'm right on JNV.) Admit my frustration with the situation may be bleeding through - understand about RL but there's only a point to which you can issue promissary notes you can't cash.
  13. Kasimir
    Honestly, for Coffee, my V lean was just based off the you push and one or two posts that felt very comfortable. I do think part of it is me feeling Coffee trips a few Creccio flags, so I'm being more careful there, but the point I want to make is Coffee is so far off meta at this point regardless of alignment I think we just gotta shrug and do what Coffee suggested - treat them as a new player. It's where I ended up mentally, even if it means that there is less of a baseline. There are reasons I'm okay with a Coffee secondary E!wise and suggested as much. If you're right, you tell me 'I told you so' after the game for screwing over the Village I guess. I don't know bro I don't really trust my judgement anymore. Something sleep deprived something I guess. Last three games were disasters on stilts. Kind of mentally at the place where we were begging Stick for death in MR56 because I feel like we're just going in loops. Or maybe this is just me waking up from a sleep schedule nuked to hell and back. What happened to being happy if I've gotten over my Elim issues ? It's not much consolation but I would be crying too because E!rand. Can you share why you think so? I do feel that way vibe-wise but I'm concerned I'm not reading TKN right. That's my main concern wrt waking up to no response tbh. @JNV Hey Quokka Buddy. If you're Village talk to me. I absolutely could be tunnelling and don't want you dead if I'm wrong Can you share why? I lean tunnel (or I guess target locked mode if E!Araris) - I go back to Coffee's post on Araris last cycle which just more or less assumed E!Araris and sussed Aeo on the basis of E!Araris. I don't think there was ever working shown and normally your post goes "Here's why X is Evil" not "X is Evil, also Y looks Evil because of X" when voting for X. If you read Coffee charitably, then Araris is sus because of Aeo, but this properly means Coffee should be pushing Aeo, not Araris, and his backing down on Aeo is weird. I'm going to just blow up the post here, because I think it's worth highlighting: Like...what's the point of that entire post as analysis? I've colour-coded it: pinkish is Araris sus, mint is Aeo sus, orange is both, please don't take them as my thoughts on their alignment, I'm tired and just wanted colours that didn't look like hell on the colour-picker. Counting just off colour codes (grey bold are my comments): 2 Araris sus : 4 Aeo sus therefore vote Araris. You could argue Coffee was being pragmatic but they're clearly not today. I think the most charitable read here is Aeo sus, therefore Araris sus, but the 'therefore' is doing a lot of work because of order of implication here: if your evidential basis for E!Araris is E!Aeo, whom your analysis is showing sus af the Village move here is to exe Aeo, not Araris, and then go for Araris if Aeo flips E. Anyway I'm linking the OG post. I think the question is, could this be gerrymandered? Maybe, IDK. The fact the conclusions don't fit the reasoning is kinda just weird to me. Still with V Aman for now but acknowledge I could just be pocketed af and too tired to care.
  14. Kasimir
    Depends on your definition. Explained vote on Aeo as disliking sheeping me on JNV, replied to you saying not that convinced of E!Araris.
  15. Kasimir
    Hi Miss I'm 21 and I can't count, how does it feel to PH into the SK game u explicitly wanted to avoid
  16. Kasimir
    We're at 10 unless 10AM Kas can't count. But if I'm right then you got outcounted by a guy who hasn't yet slept which is concerning for me mostly
  17. Kasimir
    I did some but I trust you on it more than me. Also congrats!
  18. Kasimir
    @Eiwlil
  19. Kasimir
    Fixed. I just brute forced it by adding 'ooklil' and 'illwei' as valid votes. Added Eiwlil as well because why not, this lets me poke at Illwei when I can Count looks correct. And just as I said that it borked, but anyway Cash is dead, thank you RNGesus, so I don't need to fiddle with Ash's regex, I can just comment out Cash and have it work normally, praise the coding gods >>
  20. Kasimir
    You mean once I fix Tallybot
  21. Kasimir
    I wish I could describe it but I uh, have a habit of deleting all my PMs after a game. I might have some archived JNV ones from our more extensive games, I'll take a look after I wake up. I'm afraid all I can give everyone is the unsatisfactory answer, "I know what they are normally like when I see it." Edited to add: Tbh the last time I was V opposite E!JNV was LG84, as far as I can recall. That didn't have PMs so I have no real basis for comparison. I just know that they're, in Bladerunner 2049 parlance, "off baseline." This is why I was so frustrated C1 when I didn't know how to explain it. Edited to add 2: Psst. JNV is exclusively they/them. Edited to add 3: In LG97's Elim doc, they directly confirm their NK doctrine would exclude Raven. (Not Raven as in Raven specifically but they sort out the players who are no gos.) Edited to add 4: Put it this way - 80% of the time when I'm asking JNV for a read in early game, they tell me they think TKN is Evil and admit they always think so but they can't help thinking it. This is what I mean by oddly understanding. I'm used to JNV getting tripped up by stuff. They'll admit it, admit in a self-aware way it might just be them, but also affirm they kind of just have that read. So that's one thing. The lacuna here is also interesting to me - they're avoiding giving a stance on TKN and this is in spite of me deliberately seeking to engage TKN to get more out of him and I wanna see if LG97 is that way too.
  22. Kasimir
    ? Should I be concerned that Aeo and I are apparently mindmelding all of a sudden >>
  23. Kasimir
    I'm going to stop saying more about this. I think there's a non-zero chance I'm just tired and tripping and part of me is quietly terrified I'm just screwing us over further with each sentence >> NoSleep Kas is bad. It's more that I usually see them tripped up by you and TKN. Again, it's rough to say (since it washes out as a "you are normally a bit more blood for the blood god" argument) but they're being oddly understanding of you and TKN. I have PMed them in multiple games (I can't recall, to be fair, wrt their views on you so if you have the time/energy, go look at some past games not LG98 and see what they say about you specifically) and I feel they're more tripped up by you/TKN normally. With TKN it's more an absence to be sure, but TKN has admittedly not been really present, so it is what it is. Edited to add: @Ookla the Resolute Hey Aeo actually can you do me a favour if you have time/energy? Go look at LG97 and track what JNV says about you and TKN.
  24. Kasimir
    Just to reiterate my current stance for people: No more than one in <Neil, Araris>, up to three in <Alpha, Ash, TKN, JNV> If I'm mistaken, probably throw Coffee back in but remove Araris. I could see it in the vicinity of <Ash, JNV, Coffee> instead as Neil is actually one of my SK candidates due to the Raven kill issue. It's weakly defeated by the fact Neil didn't know the SK rules but I don't fully know how to feel about derpclears. I don't strongly believe there's much content to use for connectives because: A. No substantive pressure, which doesn't require too much in response (this is prior to ISO/rereads, so sue me) B. Problem with chronic inactives is that while we can probably get something off TKN, Ash and Alpha are 90% just not there. If you believe they could be E, you just have to accept it. I agree that's ugly and unsatisfying as a solution, but if not, we stare back at the "But who is Araris's teammate?" hell, which we have also agreed not only lacks satisfying solutions, but still points us back to 4pool anyway! So if you are being forced to grapple with 4pool, why not do it now rather than at lylo when we have less room to be wrong? C. Not really a point but it addresses Araris's question of why the Elims are dgaf about train kills and potential exposure. I guess I'm just pushing because I feel like people right now are sort of focused on the people with content, and I think if your Elims are partially or substantively in those who have neither faced pressure nor produced content, then you can't get much out of it because you can't analyse an absence. Not very well anyway. tldr; pressure in 4pool good, pressure on all the slots good, can we please aim to avoid lylo, if not, then go into lylo in a position of strength so less ocrap from us then. I don't see that as NAI tbh. It's causing me some concern.
  25. Kasimir
    I still think they're overcredencing on you and Archer FWIW. It's odd to be voting a player for actually improving which was why I was so torn C1, but I cannot not go back and see it as a weird post. Yes shhh judgy people I might as well get to eat and take a break and mourn my sleep schedule.
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