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Kasimir

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  1. Kasimir
    Yikes! Best to be safe then, thanks for pointing it out, Luckat. Karlin. Odysa. Joe. Anyone who I might've inadvertently lit up in red and forgotten about and who isn't Macen. And once again, Macen.
  2. Kasimir
    Again, a fair point. Well, let's do this then. I am definitely happy about an alternative that doesn't involve Odysa being lynched. Edit to address: Wilson: Aye, but quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
  3. Kasimir
    ...Fair enough. I was reading it more as a general condemnation of Nurse-gambits rather than one localised to Aonar, so I was rather puzzled by the seeming inconsistency in your stance. Consider me convinced. Odysa. Macen.
  4. Kasimir
    Just one last question (one last qualm, if you will), Wilson, and then I will stop. In QF4, I suggested that Aonar was fakeclaiming Nurse. You said, and I quote, "Nurse would be a really hard role to claim, especially if he hasn’t converted both Renegade’s." ...So, what changed? How does Macen suddenly become an Officer Spy here?
  5. Kasimir
    That's why I'm trying to hang around and buy time in the hopes that someone a lot more qualified to figure out what the storms to make of this mess than me can come in and conclusively decide who to place that vote on. As you say; Alv, Aonar, Joe, Maili, or Jasnah. I suspect my only hope will be if Alv or Maili shows up since Joe and Aonar already pretty much mentioned they won't be able to handle this. What more do you want? I'm really not able to make a decision about you and I know next to nothing about Joe except from hearsay. I don't think Alv is lying, but this is my impression of Alv from LG5 and he's done lots of stuff since then. As I said, I'm willing to grant you the point on your strategy--or rather, I'm willing to grant that the cavalry are hopefully in a better position to assess that than I can. It's unfortunately going to be a close lynch, and the sad thing is that as Luckat pointed out, by the time it got to this stage, the only thing we could do is to pick between the three people who're basically up for a lynch. We don't have the time or numbers, practically speaking, to lynch anyone who isn't Joe, Macen, or Odysa. You yourself admitted that we're pretty much uncertain about whether to hit Macen or Joe, and we know that one of them (or Alv) is the Surgeon. If you want me to be frank and honest, then the only reason why I'm especially wary now is that Luckat has made a good point about how we've ended up being pushed in a corner to vote for one of our Lighteyes. And I don't like that at all when we could be shooting our only Surgeon. Still, I suppose that we only have a 1/3rd chance that we'd kill our Surgeon if we look for that Officer. So maybe that's a worthwhile risk. Maybe I'm too risk-averse. At my most cynical and pragmatic, I'd still rather buy us some time to actually adjudicate between the Surgeon-Not!Officer-Swordsman claims, to press Alv and Joe and Macen at greater length tomorrow, and that can't be done if we choose to shoot the guy claiming to be our Surgeon this Week. As I've said, at this point, I'm content to just tie up the votes and to let someone else who actually knows what the Braize is going on make the decision. Maybe it's cowardly, but I really am not keen on helping us try for our Surgeon. And I was serious; if you're pretty sure you know who's lying, and can explain that to me, I'll cast my vote accordingly, no question of trust involved. My current problem is that Macen's had answers for everything so far, while I just can't make anything out of Joe. The only thing that would push me to Macen over Joe, ultimately, would have to be gut feeling. Do you really want me to join in and bring on a lynch of our claimed Surgeon on the basis of a gut feeling? Because sure, just say the word, and I'll do it, then.
  6. Kasimir
    Understood, Odysa. If it comes to that, then I'm sorry, for what it's worth. Wilson: I see what you mean. Yeah, that would be a gap--except that truth to be told, I don't know about your preferred strategies as an Eliminator. I'm neither Joe, nor Aonar, nor Meta, nor Gamma--all of whom have the capacity to tell what your strategies are like. As opposed to what your perceptions of your strategies are. Clearly, the Village made a bad trade last cycle, but we are what we are, and we work with what we've got. I can't tell what you're pushing me towards or if you are pushing me towards something at all. Quite frankly, I no longer care. I'm just going to look at the tactical ramifications because I can neither choose between the Trifecta of Doom, nor am I particularly keen on Odysa's guilt, seeing as how pretty much everyone and their grandmother's been pushing that, which seems to me to suggest that Odysa isn't particularly guilty. It seems like a choice between two bad lynches to me, and the only one that I can see that would be potentially less damaging, and still a little informative is if I choose to go with Odysa as compared to picking between Macen, Joe, and Alv. If you've a good argument for which I should pick, I'll listen. Otherwise, I'm going with the least bad in a world of bad choices. Again, Odysa, I am truly sorry.
  7. Kasimir
    ...you do realise that we'd have reason to believe Wilson is a Spy/lying (on my proposal; I'm currently considering Wilson's point) only if you turn out to be a Spy upon your lynch? Is this what you're telling us now? That you're a Spy? Because I'm not quite following what you're getting at there.
  8. Kasimir
    I apologise for the double-post, but I reckoned that nobody wanted to deal with a super-long post, and since this does shift a little from the intent of my last post...well, better to be safe than sorry, I suppose :/ So: ok guys, maybe we’ve been approaching this wrong by derailing into the Lighteyed Officer. At this point, we think Wilson is the Officer—well, she’s claimed to be one, and we’ve tentatively accepted that claim. My suggestion is that we stick to the plan where Macen plus another Surgeon/Guardsman protects Luckat for this cycle. If the Guardsman winds up injured, we know Macen didn’t do his job and we lynch him next cycle. We simply don’t have the time to process all these claims and still make a good lynch and if we only have one Surgeon, I don’t really want us to play Russian Roulette and try to weed the true/good Surgeon out. We’re not Matrim Cauthon. What about the lynch, then? I suggest (sorry Odysa), that we lynch Odysa. Here are my reasons: Wilson has been continuously insisting that there must be a second Officer hiding amongst <Jost, Alv, and Macen.> But all of them have claimed to not be the Officer. Alv has claimed to simply not be an Officer, Jost has claimed to be a Swordsman, and Macen has claimed to be a Surgeon. Now, if we must lynch a Lighteyes, we could lynch Jost, because based on his claim, we don’t stand that much to lose if we’re wrong. But all that tells us is that either Alv or Macen is the Surgeon, and that either of them is Officer #2. I don’t find that terribly helpful as we’d be forced to face a similar dilemma the next day. But how does lynching Odysa help us? Really, because Odysa is the lynchpin. (Sorry about the pun.) Our assumptions are entirely based on Wilson’s claim that there is a second Lighteyed Officer. And while there’s nothing personal here, I don’t want to risk our Surgeon just to go and figure out who that could be. So what I think Odysa’s lynch lets us achieve is that it lets us rule out scenarios in which we have one Lighteyes Officer, and that is only Wilson. We would then know that Wilson has been lying to us. Consider: as I’ve previously mentioned, if Wilson is telling the truth, then it necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are truthful. But if Wilson is lying, then the only scenarios in which Wilson lies and we only have a single Officer are those scenarios in which Wilson does not actually role-block Odysa but roleblocks Meta and Torwel instead (i.e. the ones where Odysa lies about having been role-blocked. The assumption being that Odysa has no reason to lie if she is Loyal.) Note: there are also more complicated variants where Wilson isn’t actually an Officer but is in contact with one. Nonetheless, this still results in Odysa, Wilson, and that Officer being in cahoots and being Spies. It’s perhaps not as informative as lynching someone in the <Jost, Alv, and Macen> triumverate, but I think it allows us to begin the next round knowing if we’re barking up the wrong tree: brings to mind the tale of the giant who brings down his entire house trying to swat a mosquito. Last, Odysa has avowed herself to be roleless, meaning that should we mislynch, we’re at least not taking out a Guardsman or a Messenger.
  9. Kasimir
    Hmm, thank you Macen. I'm not entirely sure I'm convinced enough to retract my vote, but so noted. Thank you for responding. To be honest, the more I think of it, the more I am very leery of going after the Lighteyes today when Joe indicated he wouldn't be around for a follow-up response. A Guardsman is basically a one-time deal, and if we lose our Surgeon (assume the worst; assume we only have one Surgeon), then we're basically really in for it right now. Of the Darkeyes, Maili and Odysa are the most likely 'possible targets' that won't have votes squandered. I'm going to note suspicions of Karlin and Jasnah as well: Karlin's been looking in on the thread and saying nothing, and that's always just a little bit strange as it could indicate a Spy trying to play inactive (or possibly, not, of course) and attempts to draw him out haven't led to anything. I've gone back through the thread--he basically said something in Cycle One, nothing in Cycle Two, and a throw-away comment in Cycle Three that he should've known that Jain was evil. That's it. Seems a lot to me like someone's doing their best to stay above the inactive death requirements--just barely. Same with Jasnah, though at least she made good on her promise to come back with suspicions, even if I have no idea exactly what grounds them. There's one or two 'implicature inconsistencies' between Jasnah and Maili (that's to say, Jasnah finds Maili suspicious even though they seem to share one or two people they're vocal about not trusting.) I just flag these as people I'd look into on the Darkeyes end for now and actually set off to do that. Ren's a good candidate as well--as I previously mentioned. He probably has RL reasons, but at the same time, gets markedly more quiet as an Eliminator, so it's not something I'm willing to immediately brush off. ...And if we take Joe to be telling the truth, and if we take Wilson to be telling the truth, that means someone between Alv and Macen is the Officer, and the other is the Surgeon. Dovie'andi se tovya sagain, is that it? It seems to me we don't necessarily need to settle the Lighteyes problem today if we can 'soft-settle' Macen's allegiances, at least for this skirmish. But I'll map this puzzle out and see if there are some cases we can rule out in order to figure this out. Clock's still ticking.
  10. Kasimir
    Sorry guys, I've been waiting to pull this one since forever. All credit to Awes for this, and to Wilson, who first sent me the P.A.F.O. originals off which this is based.
  11. Kasimir
    ...I know this seems to be against what I was advocating, but the more I think of it, well, Macen. Not that my vote can make a difference at this point, anyway. Remember I said I was going back through my notes and the stuff in the previous Cycles? Well. The funny thing is, I can make sense of the way he seems to sometimes be echoing conclusions other people make--that whole slipping in that sweet spot where you seem useful and avoiding suspicion. Because that's kind of what you want to do, whether Spy or Surgeon. Your job's to stay alive so as to save lives because as a protective role, you're really important. Cool. I got that. And then there's this: Macen said this last cycle. And that just strikes me as exceedingly strange for a Surgeon. Sure, the only votes there were Meta's and mine. But these things can change, and we've both previously pulled our votes very late into the cycle. So well, if you are a Surgeon, why in the name of the Stormfather would you ever put a vote on someone you think is likely to be Wit and risk losing your role?! Why in the name of all things sane would you ever think that was a good idea, when you'd been previously savvy enough to stay out of suspicion to avoid having the village lose your role?! A dead Surgeon and a role-less Surgeon are roughly equivalent; the only difference is that a role-less Surgeon is at least one body between us and the Spies. That's what made me change my mind. I can explain Macen's prior behaviour as caution because he knows he's a Surgeon, but then that falls apart--is inconsistent, I should say--in the light of his claim and acknowledgement that I am likely to be the Wit, and blithely stacking on a vote anyway. Edit because quote did not show up in the correct box. Formatting fail.
  12. Kasimir
    Probably like what Nick Gillard describes most lightsaber duels in Star Wars to be like: that they are essentially chess played at 100 miles per hour and every move is check mate.
  13. Kasimir
    Well, for one, if that's the case, then there's really no point in testing Ace's loyalty, since you're really our only high-stakes target here. Life would suck if we lost Wilson or Macen, assuming Macen's a good Surgeon, but it wouldn't be unendurable. And I'm definitely expendable. Unless. What if we stipulated for one Guardsman as well to throw their protection onto you? In such a case, it looks as though the Eliminators wouldn't know who to role-block, or how many do end up protecting you. In addition, we would clearly be able to see if Surgeon protection failed and know that Macen didn't come through. Because right now, your thought banks on there being a good Surgeon, or at least another one. I'm not necessarily sure that is the case. I just forgot. With Luckat and myself controlling the Lighteyes votes for Dalinar, then at least for there to be a Spy majority on the Lighteyes votes, we'd need Wilson, Macen, and Joe to be all Spies. So that's a plus at least. ...Aonar suggested that you consider Newan/Odysa for a Shardblade target. I'm not necessarily convinced that Shardblading someone is the best this cycle, in case of a misstep, but that's the only discussion on it I can currently find. The rest will require me looking through my notes to decide on who to vote on and to find suspects. What are our plans for the Lighteyes vote this cycle? Edit: I say 'The rest will require me' because I obviously cannot speak for the others. Myself, I am not convinced with regard to Newan/Odysa yet, and will have to look further. And yes, I talk a lot I like to help my team strategise. Edit 2: spelling.
  14. Kasimir
    I'm still from Great Lord Gamma's House, and my Great Lord would tell you that it's exactly because you invoke this reasoning to ask me to eliminate the possibility of you being an Eliminator that makes him suspicious of it. Because it's precisely when you say, "I wouldn't do this as an Eliminator because it doesn't make sense" and we assent to that that someone has good reason to take that route. Precisely because we would think an Eliminator can't do that. So in short, I grant that Gamma is highly paranoid and his paranoia might've rubbed off: I acknowledge that it makes no sense for you to reveal yourself, but at the same time, the possibility exists that you are banking exactly on this reasoning. I've played Evil with you (ironically, you were a Heterochromic back then, d'you remember?) and I respect how cunning you can be. That was reinforced in QF4. The short story is, I don't know what to believe when it comes to you. So I'm going to look towards tactical considerations for the time being. 1. Are you absolutely sure Macen is lying? Because otherwise, I'm not willing to risk a Surgeon on the hope that he's a Spy. (And yes, I accept he could be a Spy-aligned Surgeon.) Last Week, I let my suspicion get the better of me, and I lynched someone who claimed to be a Watchman. A Surgeon is a role far more useful (well, some might disagree.) I'm not really sure I want to run the risk of costing us another. I'm obviously not going to stop you though, and anyway, it's not even as if I can; if you want to vote for Macen, go ahead. 2. Do we indeed learn nothing? I'm suggesting we can put a temporary moriatum on the Macen line and pursue other lines. It would be a straw man to suggest that I'm saying we do nothing, and I wasn't banking on watching for Macen's protection on Luckat to come active. I was really just saying that the proof of Macen's allegiance, until we get something more definite, will have to come in the form of his working with us, rather than against us. Now, if it's qualms about putting Luckat's life on the line for that, then that I can understand. Still, lynching Joe or even going back to the tired debate about Odysa and Newan would still give us some information. And that's what I suggest we do. That there's no reason to compound one error with a second by being reckless and going after Macen by thinking he's lying or trying to throw something at us to prevent his death. ...FWIW, I do want to trust you, and I've been betrayed enough times in this game to know I should curb that impulse. I'm not convinced enough to throw a vote for Macen yet, but I'm going to go and have a think again.
  15. Kasimir
    This is going to sound weird, Cursor of Doom, but I totally knew I'd forgotten something/someone. *headdesk* Alright; current protection list: Macen, Kaddar, Kenara. Noted. All the same, thoughts on having a plan? It does sound a bit more coercive than I'm fond of (...it's really more the style of someone I worked with in LG7, I guess...), but at the same time, it has the benefit of allowing us to move past the yardblock that's 'What to make of Macen?' at the moment, if or until we have some sort of definite way of figuring his allegiances. The one thing that I do find curious about what Macen said is that he thinks Wilson's definitely proven herself as the Officer while the rest of us haven't proven our roles. I find that rather strange, because when examining the scenarios, we really don't necessarily end up with that as a definite thing. So I can't really see how Wilson's claim should be taken as being more serious or definitive than anyone else's. And if he's correct about being the Surgeon, then Luckat does get protection, but that's only if Macen gets back on in time to see this, which is why I edited my post to quote him, so the notification will show up. ...I don't suppose we can ask for an extension on this one? Think we're starting to make headway
  16. Kasimir
    TBH, my gut reaction to Macen's admission is to give him the benefit of the doubt. But this might be just the aftermath of what happened to me in LG7, so here's my suggestion: fine. If Macen says he's the Surgeon, and he's publicly admitted it, as Aonar points out, his days are likely numbered anyway. So here's the thing: as he can't be role-blocked, Macen ought to be protecting Luckat this cycle. We continue to stipulate protection targets until we discover definite proof, one way or another, such as lynching the other Lighteyes Spy/Spies. Given that we don't know if we can trust Macen, I am not very keen on the idea of letting him be accountable to just himself and go off and protect whomsoever he wants. So first things first: 1. We task Macen to protect Luckat. 2. If Luckat dies, we regard this as immediate evidence that Macen has been lying to us, and lynch him. 3. I don't know who else we ought to assign Guardsmen/other Surgeons to this cycle. I don't especially know if I would suggest protecting Macen this cycle. If he's a Spy, another Spy might take care of the problem for us. On the other hand, I really don't want to lose a Surgeon, if he's telling the truth. So 50/50 about adding him to the rolls of people who need protection. So, to reiterate, here's my suggested plan, thus far: 1. We don't lynch Macen this cycle. Macen's job will be to protect Luckat, as he's a Lighteyes and can't be role-blocked by an officer. If Luckat dies, then next cycle, we regard this as an indication that Macen is a Spy and immediately lynch Macen. (What say you to this, Macen?) 2. Messengers, contact Luckat. Please. 3. Guardsmen, other Surgeons: we're hopefully going to discuss a list of players who will need protection. At this stage, I will tentatively suggest myself and Macen as candidates. We can further discuss this; stay posted. 4. I don't know what to say about the Officers at this stage, and I truly have mixed feelings about planning/stipulating too much, so I'll just leave this here as a note, for now. I may as well ask for the moon at this stage, but I'd like responses from Alv and Joe on the matter. And I'm going to carefully think things through. I admit, that if we think about it, we've not been using the Lighteyes vote so much as neutralising it. So to some extent, it isn't necessarily a big deal, as long as there aren't two Spies left among the Lighteyes, at which point, well, the good point is, it'll be obvious, since I'm the Wit, and Alv doesn't get a vote. I'm going to go and look over Joe and Alv again before making my decision. Thoughts? Comments? Edit: Point taken, Wilson. And I'd just like to reassure everyone that I have no intention of going for my personal victory at this stage, as one of the two safe roles currently standing. (I know, I know, you only have my claim for it, which is why I'm restricting myself to simple discussion and helpfulness and suggesting that the Messengers go to Luckat.) It would be just selfish of me to prioritise that over us getting in a decent position, so that's not the case right now. If we're better off, then we can hopefully have a conversation about my pleading to be killed. --looping in Macen, to avoid unexpected misunderstandings.
  17. Kasimir
    Wait. Are we seriously going with decimating the Lighteyes just to find who the Officer is? (I grant it's maybe not a big deal if we think about it, since we're not exactly using the Lighteyes vote, but throwing it elsewhere, but I'm starting to get very worried about the direction we're taking.) Also, to all who keep saying "Well, I just thought I should point out you could *possibly* not be the Wit", I have only this to say unto thee: L.A.F.O.
  18. Kasimir
    You say this right after the dogpile of last cycle? Really? I don't even...
  19. Kasimir
    Then we ought to change (AA) to (Post-Ascension) so we can have BS and PA
  20. Kasimir
    Thanks for posting, Eoldren. That was really a more general phrasing: I was dubious about the wisdom of running off my memory of players' post-frequencies, at a time when I was exhausted, to boot. I just felt that I didn't want to waste the time by going off to sleep without leaving a vote to prod someone into speaking. So I did that. And as previously mentioned, on Week 1, I used my secret vote on Meller. On Week 2, I went for Alinel, and for Week 3, I used it on myself. Anyway, Karlin. Where have you been? With regard to the protection, Ren, I see the problem you're hinting at. I'd suggest one Surgeon on Luckat, the Surgeon and a Guardsman, if we want to absolutely be certain. That's the best we can do without knowing the protective roles--and we shouldn't. That's just the nature of the beast in games like these, I'm afraid. The other alternative is we can go House Urbain/MR1 and start listing down people we do want to protect. (I don't know if we want to expand these to other roles, since we've already been suggesting that the Messengers contact Luckat.) Possibly, to cover our bases, we could suggest who the Officers (both of them!) ought to role-block. We would then regard deviation as an indication that the Officer in question is a Spy. (To the second Officer, whoever you are: I understand you may have reasons for wanting to remain silent, but they don't look good at this point in time. If you aren't rooted out by this lynch, don't come forward, and certainly aren't cooperative, we'll have no other explanation for your actions than that you are a Spy.) How to protect Luckat in battles is another issue--we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, since it looks like we need to schedule three layers of protection. If we can start to vet our Messenger network, then we may be able to better deploy protection. But at this stage, it's all just a thought--the only concrete suggestion I'd actually endorse would be to either task that Surgeon/Surgeon-Guardsman on Luckat, or to make up our wish-list of protection and let the protectors choose. The latter has the nice effect of making it so that the Eliminators, too, aren't sure who to role-block, and if they don't role-block the right person, then they waste their kill on Luckat. (This assumes all of them try to Sabotage Luckat.) We can't rule out the effect of random bad luck with the second possibility, though. Next: are we going to designate a target for the Lighteyes secret vote this time? And Joe: I'm not sure if you meant to colour that vote, but I thought I should inform you that it isn't coloured. Who did you use your Lighteyes vote on, so far? Last, on the issue of lynching Macen. The main way I think Alv could gain from lying on this (I'm not saying he is) is that Macen's being innocent and a swordsman really doesn't implicate him. We'd have to look between Alv and Joe for our two Officers/Spies, and...well, there are, of course, the possibilities in which Wilson is an Officer and a Spy...I'm not sure what evidential weight Macen's innocence would lend to which belief, here. And that's not a major issue as I think (with some reservation) that tracing our other Officer seems to be a more promising route than immediately going for Odyssa. At the same time, it just seems to me that I'd like to be a bit clearer about what exactly we would gain if we discover Macen to be innocent, because if that leads us to another likely bloodbath, then already, the possibility that Alv is lying becomes especially pertinent. Edit: My consistent response to people pointing out they have no real 'evidence' for my being Wit is that you're always welcome to lynch me and find out Help me fulfil my personal goal! Meta tried. Apparently, by the last thirty minutes before a lynch or so, it stops looking like a real great idea. But hey, if it helps, why not?
  21. Kasimir
    When going through the scenarios, the thing I find with regard to Twei and Wilson both lying is that I can't see the purpose it's serving: Wilson just about dragged her Spy-mate into the spotlight, all for a reveal that she was an Officer. It's possible, but it's kind of strange, tactically. But this is Wilson, after all; just that as Maili earlier testified, Wilson prefers to avoid drawing unnecessary connections when evil, at least that was true of LG9. So maybe some of you guys familiar with Evil!Wilson can further clarify on this point; but yeah, I agree that I would put somewhat more credence on Wilson's claim to be an Officer. This is actually rather useful; thank you, Alv. If you're being truthful, then the result is that (though we already knew it), the Lighteyed Officer-Spy in question is actually on either Aladar's team or Roion's team. If that's the case, then we likely have one Darkeyes-Darkeyes team, and the Vamah team seems to be a Lighteyed Swordsman-Darkeyed-Role team, probably for balance, since 14: 6 is still a bit on the big side, I'd say. So it'd have to be balanced out appropriately. With regard to Macen, I had one or two additional qualms, but again: I'll add that later today after I've gotten some shut-eye. And last; with regard to the Odysa-Wilson problem, I would say that because Wilson called out Odysa early, by the same estimation of Eliminator style, it seems strange that they might be Spies together, but we can't eliminate (ha!) that possibility, I guess. So on one hand, Odysa's being a Spy doesn't exactly eliminate the possibility in which Wilson is also a Spy and Odysa's partner. To make things worse, because Wilson's claim to have role-blocked Odysa comes after Odysa claimed to have been role-blocked, there's really no way of sorting that out in a foolproof manner, since communication has already occurred. Then again, if the other Officer is a Spy, then it does highly increase the chances that Wilson is on the level, since in most of the cases, I've figured we'd end up with 2-3 Officers and Alv has claimed to not be one. Unless both Joe and Macen are Officers, it seems that if we can figure if Joe or Macen look more suspicious/likely to be a Spy than Wilson, then such a lynch might have potential to be informative. Perhaps. (I'll need to think this through with a clearer mind.) Good night/morning, all.
  22. Kasimir
    It's 5am in the morning, and so I can't really process that to a good extent, but thank you for your reply, Newan. I do appreciate it and I'll assess it at some time when my increasingly-strained mind is able to focus. ...I am dubious about the wisdom of this, but I'd like to put a vote on Eoldren. You made a few interesting posts throughout the cycles; what do you think, at this point? In addition, I'd like to flag Jasnah (Damon Shan): in QF4, she explicitly used feigned inactivity as a strategy. Granted, she was Good in that game, but the problem is that inactivity can be both a strategy of a Loyal/Spy player. Also on the 'haven't heard much from them' list, I'd include Karlin, and Mek (if only because the 'vibes' are at the moment some amorphous and ill-defined entity), and to lesser extents, Alinel. Besides putting the first vote on Jain, Alinel's mostly been silent since. What gives? Half a cycle's a-wastin', gentlemen. We ain't got much time on that clock. We gotta find ourselves some Spies, y'ken?
  23. Kasimir
    I've gone back and gone over the Two-Officer Problem, or the Meta-Wilson-Odysa-Torwel problem, if you prefer a more lengthy way of talking about it. So at this point, we can count Vamah (1), Aladar (2), and Roion (3) as Spies, indicating that there are three Sabotage actions in operation at any given point in time. Once again, we need to assess how this measures up against the Scouts and the Lighteyes who chose to skip battle, and the the possibility of role-blocks and having hit Aladar Spies. The upshot of this post, though, will be several things: -Once again, I would urge/recommend all available Messengers to contact Luckat this Week. Getting coordinated is highly important, and more importantly, we need to start sieving through the Messengers to discover which of them are Spies. I find it hard to believe that in three Spy Teams, there are absolutely no Messengers at all.. If a Messenger refuses to contact Luckat, it'd seem somewhat suspicious. More relevantly, in the case of a dispute (say, if the Messenger claims to have been role-blocked), I think it would be useful to confirm with our current Officer about whether that charge is true. -We find ourselves with more than one Officer in most of the cases. That the other Officer is unwilling to come forward is strange. -In most of the scenarios I've tested out on the truth-table, the lynchpin is mostly with regard to whether Wilson has or hasn't been truthful. If Wilson is truthful, that pretty much necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are truthful (despite the skewed temporal order). The only possible scenario where Wilson is truthful and someone is lying is the one where Wilson is telling the truth and Torwel is lying. However, in those scenarios, there would be a possibly-good reason for Torwel to be lying without Torwel's being a Spy. -So, a truth-table mapping out the possibilities where Wilson is lying consists in four rows. (This is a necessary fact, because the only variables we are assigning different truth-values would basically be Odysa and Torwel. However: consider that Wilson’s claim is essentially a conjunction: that she role-blocked Odysa on Week 1 [W1] and that she role-blocked Torwel on Week 2 [W2]. This essentially results in three possible ways Wilson’s claim could be false, inflating the scenarios we’re looking at to 10. (See: ¬ [W1] & [W2], [W1] & ¬ [W2], and ¬ [W1] & ¬ [W2].) By right, there should be 12 of them, but 2 of them are incoherent, as they are scenarios in which Wilson role-blocks Odysa but Odysa lies about being role-blocked. -The upshot from these scenarios: 1. Torwel could be lying, but it could be for other valid reasons besides her being a Spy. However, of course, the possibility that Torwel is a Spy cannot be readily dismissed, strictly on the basis of the scenarios. 2. Communication is required in some of these scenarios; however, it is not necessitated, because of 1. and because Odysa posted first. 3. There are anywhere between 1-3 Officers, and if Wilson isn’t an Officer, she must be in contact with one, pointing towards a Lighteye-Heterochromic team, or a connection between two separate Spy teams (Wilson would not be likely to be on Team Vamah, as two Lighteyed Spies on the same team could easily sway the vote in catastrophic ways.) I’ve appended the table to this post in case my reasoning has been deficient. I've chosen to append them in the form of images so as to deflect worries about my tampering with them: for me to alter the images would be to alter the post's contents. I did not spend overmuch time analysing the results; this is more a blow-by-blow of 'what it would take' for Wilson to be lying, and for Odysa and Torwel to be lying/telling the truth. As previously mentioned, I reiterate that the table where Wilson tells the truth is uninteresting because in most cases, Wilson's telling the truth necessitates that Odysa and Torwel are telling the truth, hence rendering the other scenarios incoherent, save the ones in which Torwel lies. And truthfulness and lying may be caused by being Spies or Loyal, but could easily be due to other reasons. Hence my primarily being interested in conditions, rather than whether it tells us these are Spies. Perhaps this might seem over-cautious to some. I do not deny this charge.
  24. Kasimir
    What are you convinced of? :S I'm not following.
  25. Kasimir
    Pretty sure that isn't legal, but it doesn't stop people from doing it. I've seen self-published ebooks on sale on Amazon for Kindle--some of which are, for instance, for Star Wars. Because clearly, there's nothing wrong with writing and selling your own Star Wars stories, right? The other thing is I'm wondering if it's just some bot compiling these things. May not be likely but has happened on occasion, with T-shirts and so. Especially if Source Wikia happens to be...ah...exceedingly prolific.
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