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Kasimir

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  1. Kasimir
    Really? Because as I can see it, the Eliminator kill isn't their most potent weapon right now. It's the ability to make the people with the Shardblades stab the wrong people and to cause a mislynch. I'm pretty sure that numerically, the slaughter tactic will probably work for us, so you're right in that, but I don't believe in leaving even the slightest possibility of exploitation, especially considering how persuasive you can be. Sure, you're not Wilson. But that doesn't mean you're not dangerous anyway. And I have great respect for that. I'm sure Wilson is about to beat me over the head for this because she didn't enjoy being on the other end of my paranoia, but there you have it. And you should get Wilson to throw in a free Shardblade if the Spy comes forward. Though really, if everyone but Torwel has read it, then it's just down to, strangely enough, you or Torwel. Edit: Apologies, 17S is messing up very badly for me now in terms of posting, so I don't really know how the two empty posts happened, but I'd like permission to remove them, if possible.
  2. Kasimir
    I think you're missing the point. For obvious reasons, all of you have claimed to be Spearmen. So if you all were to not have voted on every even cycle, it would be startlingly obvious that one of you was not who you claimed to be. The worry is then that one of you is concealing your Scoutness, because it would be a useful nasty surprise to have up your sleeve and that that is going to cause us more trouble going forward tomorrow. So as I see it, there are two main ways we can do this. Again, our suspicious group consists in: Torwel, Araris, Ren, and Joe. One way is that we lynch me today, and two of our suspicious four. We get the Darkeyes who isn't dying today to put that first vote on me, just to make sure that there are no nasty surprises for everyone left standing going on forward tomorrow. The other way I see we can do this is that we lynch the three suspicious Darkeyes today, and then if the game doesn't end, we take Joe down tomorrow as he doesn't have protection against Shardblades or the lynch. Frankly, given how tricksy Ren has been in the past as an Eliminator, perhaps I'm overcompensating but I'm surprised that no one else sees the need to make certain that he can't pull more tricks up his sleeve if we plan for him and Joe to be the surviving suspects. Personally, I prefer the second option, if only because it seems really hard to force people to vote for me, so I guess I'll settle for the crude, nuclear option by wiping out our suspect pool. So here, I'll start. Araris. Ren. Edit: If it's not clear, then what I'm advocating at this point is that we lynch and Shardblade the three most suspicious people on Newan's chart. That makes it Araris, Ren, and Torwel. And then we leave Joe for tomorrow if the cycle doesn't end, seeing as he can't pull a Scout on us, can't role-block our Shardbearers (I doubt he's an officer anyway), and can't save himself even if he were a Surgeon. Araris, at this point, I'm inclined to just let you protect whomsoever you wish to. If, as it seems, the general inclination is for the crude option, then it doesn't matter by this point. If you're not a Spy, then I'm sorry.
  3. Kasimir
    To be honest, Joe, I would prefer to defer talk of lynching me to tomorrow. My reasoning is that I don't exactly want to block discussion now (and indeed, I'm regretting having even brought it up until tomorrow.) In addition, I actually would prefer if Ren, or whichever of the three suspects cast the first vote for me. If you do, there's no point in it because you just get busted down to Darkeyes. But if one of them is a Scout pretending to be a Spearman (especially the one who's getting killed tomorrow), then I'd prefer that they not be able to use their Scouting abilities to evade a Shardblade kill. The other alternative is to lynch Ren tomorrow and to Shardblade you if the game doesn't end, but I'd like a bit of insurance. So if tomorrow, we're going ahead with Operation Help Kas, then I think I would like to request Ren to cast the first vote. Anyway: I'm still not sure what to make of the lot of them. (I wish I'd thought to request that Mek watch Alv while Araris was purportedly watching him...) I'm going back through the previous cycles to see if I can make sense of things. In particular, does anyone have any thoughts surrounding the lack of a kill this cycle? We only have Ren, Torwel, and Araris unaccounted for in terms of roles (I mean that we have nothing else to go on apart from your say-so; the same predicament exists for Joe but it's not relevant here) so they're our Scout candidates. But they quite frankly can't have Scouted last cycle because they all voted. So to me, it reads like there was a Lighteyes battle skip or the Eliminator kill (see: the Aladar kill) hit either Jasnah or the remaining Roion Spy. Question is, who would Aonar target? Or does madness lie down that path? Edit: Color.
  4. Kasimir
    Tentative vote against Joe. Given that he apparently is cool with throwing doomed teammates under the bus, I'd like to know a little more about what he makes of things thus far. Same call to Araris, and Torwel already has a vote on her.
  5. Kasimir
    The rules say you wouldn't, but you'd be busted down to Darkeyes. I don't want that to happen to you or Luckat. You guys deserve a happy ending to this game. Nevermind, forget about my request. It isn't a big deal anyway, and our energies are better spent trying to red-vote for the last Spy. And I've never actually survived to endgame as a Good player, so this personal victory thing can go hang >> Edit: For those tracking Lighteyes votes, I used my secret vote on myself. I nearly forgot to submit it (I think I submitted it 4 minutes before the close), so I figured I was the safest place to throw that on.
  6. Kasimir
    (Technically, we can do this the crude way, by slaughtering everyone who isn't me, Alv, Mek, Eoldren, Newan, and Luckat. It would be crude, but it would be a mindless way of solving the problem.) However, if we figure out who the surviving Spy is, may I please request that a Spearman lead the lynch against me? >> Yes, yes, I recognise it's a new low for the King's Wit. >> Edit: Not that this should stymie discussion since we still need to do so to flush out our last Spy, if they don't accept Ren's generous offer. Edit 2: My read now is that since Aonar is on Team Aladar, the role-blockee was likely Jasnah instead. Pretty much the only person Aonar could've counted on not to go, "Eh, wait a sec bruv, I was the one who was role-blocked." That was why I'd asked Alv about the cycle in which she'd contacted him. Perhaps she'd told him that, but I'm not sure. So I guess following the second role-block is not likely to be useful by this point :/ Unless we can somehow reframe it in the context of the kills.
  7. Kasimir
    Oh Almighty, I have one last question. What happened to Torwel's vote on Araris? Edit: Not so, I lied, I have another. May I just confirm that if a kill hits a member of Team Roion, then it will also not be reflected in the write-up?
  8. Kasimir
    Well, three things first. King, in your report, you say that Aonar was a Darkeyed Spearman. But your list has him as a Guardsman. Could we have confirmation of which he is, or is this your way of telling us that he did indeed use his Guard ability? Second, is there going to be a Skirmish, a Battle or a Highstorm at the end of this cycle? Last, if an Eliminator kill hits a Scout who was off Scouting, will it be reported in the same way a Surgeon/Guardsman save is? Now, as far as I can see, last cycle has been pretty good: we've managed to root out 2 of the 3 remaining Spies. So good job guys, but we can't rest on our laurels. Let's find the last Roion Spy. Now that Aonar's dead: who among us received his spanreed, if I may ask? As far as I can see, our suspect pool really depends on whether Araris is truthful about being a Guardsman. If he is, in fact, a Guardsman, then he's clean (I think.) Our suspect pool for Jasnah's partner would really be the two Darkeyed Spearmen (claims) and the Lighteyed Swordsman: so, Ren, Torwel, and Joe. Obviously, we can do further ruling out from there. However, of course, if Araris is lying, then he's back in our suspect pool, as it were. Thoughts? Edit: I hate the colour editor. So storming much.
  9. Kasimir
    I'm dead, was all Kaddar could think, as the archer nocked an arrow to his bow and drew back the string. He heard the thwack! of the arrow flying, and threw himself as far as he could, forward and to the left. He staggered, regained his balance, and hefted the spear, wondering if he could put it through the archer before he was shot again. "Storm it all," said the lighteyed archer, lowering his bow. "I'm not paid enough for this." Kaddar coughed. "You aren't?" "What do you think?" the man groused. "I hate archery, I'm worse than a chull at it, and Highprince Roion doesn't pay me enough to fight." "Well," Kaddar said, "What do you think about working for Gavilar?" The man blinked. Sensing an opportunity, Kaddar went on. "Be happy to pay you double what you're earning." His erstwhile opponent looked, for a few moments, as though he was seriously considering the offer. Finally, he said, "Thanks, but that's not an offer for me. I guess I'm already headed somewhere else." His hand drifted, Kaddar noted, to the inside of his arm. Around them, the fight raged; darkeyed spearmen cried out as they were cut down, and flights of arrows hissed through the air. Roion was fond of archers, Kaddar noted. They should've improved the shields the darkeyes had. He'd lost his own somewhere in the melee when he'd faced this archer. "That happens," he said, thinking of the night Gavilar had asked him to be his Wit. The man laughed; a short, tired sound. "Try not to get yourself killed, Brightlord." Kaddar blinked. "And you...?" "Call me Khas," said the man, over his shoulder. He turned and strode away through the clamour of battle, bow at the ready. Nothing is true, everything is permitted.
  10. Kasimir
    1. You're right on the bolded part; teaches me to type at 2am... >> So the Roion case says little about who his partner could be. 2. My main reason for taking some of Karlin's words at face value, despite his half-hearted attempt to pretend to be Odysa, is basically that his last message gave me the key to finding out who he was. "'My plan was to protect Jain....but I had no access to my computer for that cycle and was oblivious to his impending doom until it was to late.'" Pretty much points away from Odysa and at Jasnah and Karlin alone. So given that he wasn't heavy on deception, I try to read most of what he said as not being primarily deceptive. You may differ, and indeed, you are correct in pointing out it is a possibility that Karlin has in fact protected Macen. I'm not sure I want to bank on that possibility, because it's also possible that one of our two claimed Guardsmen have in fact done so. I'm also pretty sure he didn't send in orders, because that's the best way to explain the lack of a kill. 3. Now, 4 good Guards and 1 good Surgeon versus 1 evil Guard is downright ludicrous. I buy that Wyrm is a troll; like you, I'm finding 3 good Messengers hard to swallow (although the Spy Messenger could simply be not claiming Messenger). I'm basically even more troubled by the suggested Guardsmen numbers than our 4 Spearmen, at this time. 4. Very frankly, Araris, you're missing the point of such a plan. It's not about blocking the Spies so much as eliminating you from our Spy-pool, given we're not sure we can trust you. You might remember that from LG7. I'm still not sure I want to trust you at this point, given a second Guardsman claim and the almost-definite possibility of one more evil Guardsman--I'd be more willing to let Alv have free choice of protections. If the others disagree, then I'll defer to the vox populi. I grant that Aonar's equally fishy, and I'm trying to decide what we can/should do about him. - Edit: Luckat, my bad: on 3., it must be either Karlin or Aonar who saved Macen. Araris was role-blocked, and unless you want to postulate Guardsman #6...I'm also a bit reluctant to think it's Karlin for the reason that Macen's exposure came in the last hours, which is outside of Karlin's timezone, and Macen was fighting it to the end, pretending to be a Surgeon loyal to Dalinar. It seems quite a stretch for Karlin to protect Macen and to hope that Macen was in fact a Spy. And Karlin wouldn't have Spy reasons to have known that, as he was a barely-active lone Guardsman on a different Spy team. He could've made a lucky guess, but the case against Macen was very tentative early on--in fact, Macen was claiming to be an essential Loyalist role, which meant that by rights, Karlin shouldn't even have been throwing protection on him. It was really only Alv who cemented it. Torwel. Edit 2: Just to indicate I'm not pulling it out of nowhere--Jain's following Melbourne Time (sorry Jain, but it was in the Nationality Thread.) Karlin is his RL friend, so it's not too much of a stretch to say that Karlin is also following Melbourne Time, which is currently GMT + 11. Which means that the cycle ends 7am his time. Sure, he could get up at 6am or so to catch the end of the cycle, but I just thought I'd point out that would indicate Karlin won't always necessarily be able to catch/follow the often wordy and significant developments going on in the cycle (hence his not realising I had revealed myself both as Wit and as his contact) and the last time he was on, Macen was claiming Loyal Surgeon. So yes, I find it more likely that Aonar protected Macen. Plus, he decided not to tell us he was role-blocked because we were looking for just about anyone to lynch? Really? Conveniently shifting suspicion onto Torwel? Because he didn't have enough time to defend himself when he was capable of putting up posts in the next couple of cycles? (Recall he was role-blocked in Cycle Two. Despite repeated calls for the other role-blockee to come forward? It's Cycle Six now. He sat back for three to four cycles, during which he was capable of posting, and at no point decided to reveal the information. That's suspicious, IMO. To anyone who is feeling tldr; please just read the two Edits for a summary of why I think Aonar should be lynched.
  11. Kasimir
    Last thoughts before I'm heading off for the night: (as I said, I've mostly been examining the conditions of possibility for each person's being a Spy. In other words, I'm not saying that our suspects are Spies. I'm examining what it would take for them to be Spies/what that would imply. If we can match these scenarios up to things we know for sure/our data, then we can rule out possibilities that are incoherent. Here's what I have so far.) 1. Aonar. Wilson theorised that Macen was likely to have role-blocked Aonar (which is an assumption that puts Aonar on Team Roion), and that this might explain one of our missing kills. I find that a bit strange: if Aonar could've figured he was a natural candidate for a role-block, then him submitting the orders for the battle sabotage just doesn't make sense when he could delegate it to a partner. In addition, if, as Ren has suggested, Aonar was a Scout who tried to miss the Week 2 Battle (although note that this suggestion places Aonar on Team Aladar), then Aonar would never have sent in a sabotage action in the first place. His partner would have. So what would it take for this to work? Well, in the first case, Aonar's partner would have to be someone who draws their own share of the attention/is just as likely to get hit by a role-block. And Aonar would have to not be a Scout/using his Scouting ability. So something like a Squadleader. In addition, this first case suggests that Aonar's partner can't be a Lighteyes, because that would be a neat way around the role-block problem and they had absolutely no reason to not take it. This, for me, suggests that if we are working on the assumption that Aonar was the one who was role-blocked and refusing to come forward, then we need to look towards a particular set of potential partners to explain the missing kill: people like Ren or Alv or possibly, Araris. (Alv is, of course, ruled out by this point.) In the second (Ren's) case, Aonar would not have been the one carrying out the Sabotage order. I do suggest this implies his partner could be either a Lighteyes (in which case the main possibilities are Joe, who I mention for the sake of completeness, but would tentatively put somewhat less weight on), or more likely, Macen. Another possible partner is a Darkeyes less likely to draw flak, hence being the one sending in the orders. Again, for the sake of completeness: Odysa, Torwel, Araris, Jasnah, Mek, Eoldren. (We obviously have reason to rule out Eoldren and Mek, I believe. Furthermore, Wilson doesn't put so much stock on the idea of Odysa partnering up with Aonar, if only because he would likely have encouraged a different playing style. I'm ambivalent about whether Torwel is a realistic possibility, though.) 2. Araris. As Luckat previously pointed out, Araris was role-blocked by Wilson during Week 4. The Week 4 Battle was pretty much when Macen was saved by a Guardsman. So, whether Araris is telling the truth about being a Guardsman is one thing. (After all, our only evidence for that will be if/when he makes a successful save, unless we want to L.A.F.O.) But if Araris is a Guardsman, then he cannot have saved Macen. In fact, unless Wyrm gave the Eliminators three out of five Guardsmen (Araris, Karlin, plus Macen's rescuer), I'd say it looks like Araris would then be on our side. So, whoever saved Macen, whether a Spy (Karlin or someone else, perhaps, five Guardsmen still seems too many, so the most parsimonious answer seems to be that Karlin did), or someone on our team who made a mistake, it can't be Araris. Period. But this puts us in a slightly awkward position, because we have three Guardsmen. Which is by no means impossible, but something to keep in mind. But let's think a little more about things: the kill from Team Aladar and Team Roion seems to have gone through. Macen most likely made the kill, just to be safe and to prevent his partner from accidental exposure. So if Araris is a Spy, there are two possibilities for him--Team Aladar, or Team Roion. If he's on Team Roion, then we know he did not send in the kill orders last cycle. That's a bit interesting, considering that it seems the whole point of Araris lying low ("flying under the radar", as he puts it) is to avoid aggro. Who would have sent in the orders then? The partner less in the spotlight--or at least, less on Wilson's radar. Possibilities range from Joe (again, sorry, it had to be mentioned), to (I believe), Torwel, Odysa, and Jasnah. (Mek and Eoldren being ruled out for basically the same reasons; Ren and Aonar have been left out because they are somewhat on the radar, relatively speaking.) I'm working through possibilities for Torwel, Odysa, Joe, Ren, and pretty much everyone whose innocence we don't have Word of Wyrm for, or at least compelling reasons to accept. Unfortunately, I'm just a bit paranoid like that >> In the case of Joe, I do think he isn't as likely to be a Spy, but then again, if I'm considering Araris, who was the first to latch onto Jain, then it seems that Joe deserves at least a second look.
  12. Kasimir
    Thanks. Apologies for foiling that, but I think Alvron was more likely to have protected you, Luckat, or Wilson, given you guys basically are more strategic targets for protection than myself. In any case, Macen seems to have role-blocked him, in which case, I believe you would have received a null result, even if he had targeted me.
  13. Kasimir
    Strangely enough, the very first fantasy books for me that I can recall reading (though probably Chronicles of Narnia may have come in before--that I can't recall in order) were Tamora Pierce's Protector of the Small books. I think only First Test and (possibly) Page were published, back then. From there, I moved backwards to her Song of the Lioness quartet, and then to books like Deltora Quest and The Hobbit, and the Old Kingdom Trilogy, Eventually, I encountered Mercedes Lackey, Dennis L. McKiernan, was able to finish the Lord of the Rings, and then the Wheel of Time and the addiction grew
  14. Kasimir
    Thank you. I have to say though, the number of mistakes, compared to misconceptions you've had in previous games is startlingly different. Also, the type of them. It might be because we were working up many, many pages of posts and it's not always easy to catch up with. Still, I would like to know what you mean by "The only time my order actually got through." Are you claiming to have been role-blocked during Cycle One and Two and Four? In addition, by this point, as you can tell, your staying in the background is not as helpful. However, given we already have a slate of suspects, and I don't think we have the same evidence against you that we did for Macen, I suggest we put you to the side for this cycle and consider other suspects. So I'm inclined to offer you the same plan we offered Macen (or a modification of the current plan for this cycle.) You protect Alv this cycle. If this is unsatisfactory, you pick someone from the set <Alv, Newan, and Luckat> to protect and you tell us who you've decided on before Wyrm gives the '10 hours to cycle end' call. If that person dies, we lynch you the next cycle, as it's clear you're not who you claim to be. - Mek: By this point, one half of the cycle has transpired. I'd like to ask who you targeted, and if you got a null result. - Ren: I was more curious about why you'd suddenly voted and retracted Torwel for this round. And I'd appreciate an explanation of why the Spy teams as you've drawn them out "make the most sense," as you've put it. - I'm still working on the group analysis, myself. Hopefully, I'll have it up in a while more. There's definitely something weird with things as they currently stand, though. Let's look at our current standing Darkeyes: 1 Surgeon = Alv 3 Messengers = Ash, Maili, + ? 4 Spearmen = Odysa, Newan, Torwel, Ren 4 Guardsmen = Karlin, Araris, Eoldren, and Luckat 2 Watchmen = Meta, Mek Total = 13 There are Squadleaders and Scouts, and apparently, our current unknowns are Aonar and Jasnah. Either of whom could be a Squadleader, a Scout, or a Messenger. By this point, I'm tempted to think the Squadleader doesn't exist--Wyrm clarified from the beginning that not all roles are in the game, but I must admit that the number of people claiming Guardsman and Spearmen leaves me a bit uneasy. I'll have to look more at the distribution when drawing up my group distributions. Edit: Scratch Four--sorry Araris, I myself forgot that Wilson role-blocked you during Cycle Four. Are you then claiming to have been role-blocked during Cycles One and Two?
  15. Kasimir
    Well, there go the jokes on Macen's Highprince promiscuity...
  16. Kasimir
    Thank you. And to me, I think the main question would be if there is a chance that one of the Messengers chose not to contact anyone until someone guilty had been found. (One possibility, again assuming that Karlin was truthful in telling me that he hadn't used his abilities at all--is that the Roion team is a Guardsman-Messenger pair. So the Messenger chose to wait until the Guardsman had saved Macen, established contact that same Week, and found out the name of Macen's partner so they can collaborate at length or by code the next week. I'm not sure how likely I find that--it's just a thought.) More pertinent, I think, is if your Messenger contacted anyone during Week Two, and who they now plan on contacting. But all that aside, it would probably come down to you and Alv. Just let us know if you plan on Shardblading them, so we don't try to lynch the same person. That would be a waste, I reckon. Wilson voted Karlin, you voted Aonar, I voted Ren, Joe apparently didn't vote. Unless Joe's lying, then yes, it seems that Macen voted Karlin. Amusingly. I'm currently trying to trace the Spies in terms of group-connections rather than in terms of concrete suspicions. I'll post my findings before I go to bed tonight. Edit: I especially mention Torwel because given your mention of code phrases, I found "Not sure what's happening up north, but where I live, looks like it's going to be a wet summer." to be an interesting non-sequitur. Given that Marand is dead, could I ask if Torwel was checking in there? (I don't need to know her codephrase; I just need to be able to rule out the possibility that she was confirming contact with someone else.)
  17. Kasimir
    Alv, if this is information you can share with me: in which cycle did the Messenger in question contact you? In addition, Luckat--would you be able to confirm if you saved Alv, or if this is completely off? Thanks. Once more, repeating the call for the Guardsman who saved Alv, and the person who Macen role-blocked in Cycle Two to please come forward. Particularly the first person--you really don't want us accidentally lynching or Shardblading you as we attempt to figure out who, among those who haven't been accounted for, is our Spy. Edit: I hate the colour editor. Edit 2: Note that we now have four people claiming Spearman, and just one of them has been confirmed. I'm starting to think that there's something fishy in there. I'm also going to extend Newan's questions to Araris, but won't change my vote to target him because Joe already slapped down a vote on him. What do you think we should do now, Araris? Do you have anything to say besides hopping on the standing Shardwagon for Odysa? What is your role? I will, however, swap my vote (but not my suspicions, for my paranoia is infinite) from Aonar to Torwel, whom we haven't yet heard from. Who are your suspicions, Torwel?
  18. Kasimir
    Crude strategic suggestion: 1. Get Mek to watch Alv (or another likely target.) 2. Have Alv protect Mek (or another likely target.) 3. Get Luckat/Newan to do fancy things with their battle skips. I missed Ren's shift. This is the second time in two cycles you've quickly retracted from Torwel. Why, exactly...?
  19. Kasimir
    Alv: I suspected it was a bluff. I just asked you to send in orders just in case, hoping to force Macen to make a choice between Mek and you. Since Mek isn't role-blocked, I hope he saw something but is just biding his time to talk about it. I didn't press the issue because I didn't want to make you reveal your plan. Ren: I don't understand why you're talking about Jain's partner. I think you mean Macen's partner, as Ser Wolf has died from inactivity. In addition, you seem to be getting your facts wrong--in Week 4, Wilson sent Araris to the latrines. In Week 5, Wilson sent Aonar to the latrines. We know that didn't stop the Roion kill. I'm rather puzzled because your suspicions of Torwel at this point seem conditional on your suspicions of Odysa. What is your case then for Odysa's being a Spy? Wouldn't it then make more sense to lynch Torwel first? Agreed about Aonar. I think it's unlikely but not impossible that Joe could be a Spy (the reason I don't buy it is his confirming Jain's lynch, as given what he told Wilson about his selling out Eliminators who were doomed, his actions in Macen's lynch may or may not be consistent with his loyalty.) Still, Joe, you said you'd be back in the thread after catching up. I hope you'll actually appear sometime in this half of the cycle without me needing to vote you. (On an aside) There may or may not be three or four Guardsmen, but it is indeed a fact that three have used their abilities. Karlin claimed to not have used his abilities--this was sent to me after Macen's lynch. He might have been lying, but if that is the case, then we have two Guardsmen left unaccounted for. However, if there are four Guardsmen, then I suspect only three Messengers, given the numbers. Maili claimed to have contacted Twei on Week Two. He contacted me on Week One. As Maili is Dalinar-loyal, we don't need to take Twei's word for it. We can take Maili's. Araris: ...the Odysa part in my last post was a typo. I'd meant to focus on Aonar and Ren. I can't decide about you. On one hand, you did start the Jain vote. On the other hand, voting for Odysa since Newan is clean is hardly the best way to make a decision. Newan could be clean and still mistaken. (After all, we're all fallible, here.) What exactly is your game?
  20. Kasimir
    One last thing, I forgot: two kills means that Team Aladar (on Wilson) and Team Roion (on Alv) got their kills in. Team Vamah (Karlin) did not. (Most likely anyway, based on how they were planning, and since Ser Wolf probably could've dropped a post if he'd sent in Sabotage orders.) ...Odysa. I don't know what to think anymore. I am, to a decent extent, inclined to trust you. After all, it was clear that Ser Wolf was trying to frame you. At the same time, he did seem to be rather isolated and not in the game. So I don't know how much his convictions stand as evidence, one way or another. That everyone and their grandmother seems to be trying to kill you since Cycle One does partly nudge me in favour of your innocence. However, you're not really helping things by behaving like a depressed Eliminator at the moment. Instead of trolling, I do hope you'll take some time to help us try to narrow down on the last three Spies remaining amongst us, please. Thank you. Same goes to everyone who's been popping in and out. We've come out of the Battle being pretty lucky, all things considered. Our losses could've been far worse. Let's make the best of it, and let's find those Spies!
  21. Kasimir
    And there goes the good Ser Wolf. Requiescat in pace. That was a lot better than expected, despite losing Maili (Maili, I'm so sorry, but I guess you can punch Wilson in the Tranquiline Halls.) 1. We now know that Newan is cleared, as Dalinar as favoured him with a Shardblade. The worst result we could've had was one of the cleared people like Alv getting a Shardblade. All in all, I think this was as good an outcome as could be expected from a Battle. 2. To the Guardsman, whoever you are, once again, thank you. (Eoldren, if I was half-hearted in my thanks previously, thank you once more.) Furthermore, I'd like to appeal to the Guardsman who performed the save on Alv to come forward. You would be helping us clear yet another person, and at this point, you cannot threaten the Eliminators anymore. 3. With only two Eliminator teams left to go, kills are down to 2 in Battles and 50-50 in Skirmishes, so I guess that's not necessarily a great thing, as people now have higher chances of dying. Still, let's try to make some headway, shall we? This leaves us with three of them and one pair, as far as we know. 4. Maili was innocent. I'm going to read this as one of the times when the Village screws up because Wilson was clean, Newan is clean, and I think we can pretty much consider Eoldren to be clean (someone correct me if I'm missing something out here.) I'm going to leave it up to Luckat and Alv to decide whether it's a good time to re-examine the last Messenger(s). We don't want to keep blindly lynching people just because they're Messengers, after all. I will note, however, that it is not impossible that the Spies either don't have a Messenger, or, as Alv pointed out, they pulled a Spanreed trick on us and were waiting to watch us lynch everyone who was a Messenger. The big four unknowns who've never made a single claim and we don't have a read on at all are, surprise, surprise: Aonar, Ren, Araris, and Jasnah. I'd be more inclined to put more weight on the first three, given they're behaving a lot more strangely than Jasnah. And so to start, I'm going to call out Aonar, for the reasons I've already mentioned just before last cycle ended. 5. Mek--did you see anything? 6. My Lighteyes vote went onto Ren, so probably Wilson and someone else voted Karlin. 7. A list, of what we currently know, based on claims. Things that we have Word of Wyrm for will be underlined. Now that Maili's dead, the information's not sensitive any longer, I guess. The Messenger information still is, though. Also, it would be appreciated if no-one counted my list colour-coding as votes, because it would be ridiculous. Thanks. In addition, I've italicised the people who I think we can consider to be somewhat trusted, though they're clearly not green. I left Darkeyes entries for Newan and Luckat because their base role is a Darkeyes one--Shardbearer is kind of like an applied template. Whether Karlin used his abilities will determine whether we have 4 Guardsmen or 3. Certainly, he claimed to me that he didn't, but considering the fact that messages had to pass through Wyrm, it's possible he saw Macen's danger and decided to save him. But I don't find that likely to be the case, I reckon. Again, the glaring black holes amongst the Darkeyes are Aonar, Ren, Jasnah and Araris. Since we can trust Luckat, knowing what Luckat is doesn't really matter; Luckat can fill in the list on her own and we don't have to know that. This is off the top of my head, at any rate. I need some rest, and hopefully, everyone will discuss all the things in my absence! Edit: Edited so many storming times because of formatting and colour. Grrr. Edit 2: Uh, Newan, I suggest you not go immediately Rambo with that Shardblade, because there are three of them left. We're now 10:3. We know the Spies aren't likely to mis-kill, but a mislynch plus two missed Shardblade kills on our part will put us 6:3. Not lynch and lose, not exactly, but it'd be very uncomfortable territory, I'd say. Not to say we shouldn't employ Shardblade kills--just be careful about those!
  22. Kasimir
    Nope. I'm just commenting that trick isn't a particularly good one and we know where he got it from, since I got to see it done by the master from behind-the-scenes. And that didn't work so good. Quite frankly, I think he's spitting into the wind here. The lynch train looks about set, so I'd say that unless Torwell is a Spy, or unless Maili is Macen's BFF, then he's just pretty much taking a guess like the rest of us. Macen loves to talk big and sound assured, even when he's just making guesses, or desperately trying to defend himself. (For obvious reasons, I think the fact we were more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt helped him more than any defense he mustered.) If you haven't noticed what went on with Luckat's alleged protection of me, which you probably have. With regard to Marand, I really don't know. But at this point, I want to at least leave a one-vote pressure on Aonar. If it looks like there's gonna be lynch shenanigans, then yeah, I guess I'll throw a vote on Maili, but for the moment, I'm staying with Aonar because like Ren, he seems to be more intent on maintaining an illusion of helpfulness than actual, substantive help. Sure, they both said they're gonna be busy. So did Odysa. He talked about setting up his diagrams in Week 1. So if he's been following this, where's his analysis apart from hedgy "Well, I'm not real sure..." which pretty much everyone's been throwing out? And why do I seem to get the feeling that Aonar's analysis is consistently skewed towards painting our situation as dire (not that it isn't, but I'm also a little puzzled by how immediately he just says, "Ok, no one came forward with the Spanreed, ergo it must've been with a Spy.) Well, sure. Clearly there aren't any other good reasons someone might have for remaining silent? Such as, y'know, attempting to gain information? And Aonar overlooked that? Really? They're not big things. But I'm not comfortable with them either. So unless it's a dire thing, I'd like my vote to stay put. (For Ren, I don't know what to think either. He did say a little more, but he's also being curiously non-commital. And I admit I raised an eyebrow a bit upon seeing his retraction from Twei when he previously made a general call to all to say more and to be more bloodthirsty. He's made more promissary notes than actual commitments, it seems. Then again, he's made an attempt to say more after I mentioned in an aside that he was being too quiet and I was uneasy about it. Which could go either way; attempting to start being helpful, or attempting to negotiate that suspicion line. Neither of them are actual suspicions, but I'm just futilely hoping they'd both say a bit more here. And I guess it would be good not to have to unsay what I've already said.) I do have some things that don't match up for me about Maili. Most notably, that you mentioned that Maili told people to watch me in Cycle Two--and indeed, consider that I was behaving suspiciously in the first two Cycles (I suppose, considering I was topping suspicion lists.) How on earth does that explain Cycle One, then, when he should be looking for people who were far cleaner? Did he suspect I was the Wit from the get-go? That doesn't make sense to me. At the same time, I'm not entirely sure I think he's a Spy, but the lynch train can't be diverted at this point; I just thought I'd state something that didn't make sense for me. And Karlin's last post was indeed in Week 3, so if he doesn't say anything in the next half an hour, he's due a grave of his own.
  23. Kasimir
    Sorry Wilson. I look at this, and all I can say is: Awes did it first, it didn't work and Gleeman was better. Three charges of failure; guilty, court adjourned.
  24. Kasimir
    I'm not sure I would go all out in describing these as punctuation errors, per se, and more of that apart from capitalisations at the start of a sentence and the period and ellipsis, Jain's partner doesn't seem particularly fond of anything else. No sign of innovations such as the comma. I'll try and get a more lucid, non-RP-ish post up then: I'm obviously not allowed to do copy-and-pasting, but I'm allowed to refer to mispellings, and we've had one more exchange since my last post. Could be someone who's cast suspicion on Odysa--on the other hand, it could be someone simply trying to bank on the already-existing suspicion of Odysa. There are lots of levels here and I'm not sure which one is the right one. Could it be someone setting up Odysa and the people who frame her? Could it be someone who has been already setting up Odysa? I'm rather surprised you did not hear of it, given our mutual friend, I must admit. Our most recent exchange: Ser Wolf claims that he'd no computer access for the cycle where Jain was lynched and so didn't pick up on the fact Jain was knee-deep in crem until it was too late to stop the lynch train. (My paraphrase, obviously.) Edit: I don't recommend reading this literally, because the only two it implicates are Karlin and Jasnah. Both of whom seem in danger of getting hit by the inactive purge. These messages, particularly the most recent, may or may not, in addition, be compromised.
  25. Kasimir
    When you're playing Pokemon to practise your German skills, and you play against this trainer named Andolin, and all you can think is: so close! So close!
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