Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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Sorry my dude I blame bad habits from MR56 The last tag was at least a call-out :eyes: Just to ask: any reason you have so many nulls at this point? Also: Xino confirmed being the Happy Camper, does that affect your read of him? What about Ash's C1 knife?
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@Matrim's Dice - Feel like what Turtle is asking here is: A. Is Silver Dust a passive? (Edited to add: i.e. does it need an action slot?) B. Is Silver Dust a consumable? (i.e. burned once protecting from Violation then gone?) Smh @Ashbringer :eyes: I know you owe me a Soother Spike but I already said I'm fine, you can keep it! You don't have to try to get the GM to stab me with spikes in games to come! >> Additional question, @The Bookwyrm. Who do you think we should roleblock this cycle?
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Wait a bloody minute >> Mat. @Matrim's Dice I'd like to confirm this. If you put in an action, you cannot have put in the Elim kill. Am I correct in this inference.
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How does the fact that your Elim read thinks your other Elim read is Evil make you feel? This is just odd to me. The fact Bookwyrm can be paired with more people should be bad - we want to, over time, update and narrow down our PoE, not blow it up repeatedly and expand it. And I say this despite Bookwyrm's latest post seeming...once again, opportunistic :| Ok. You know what. If Bookwyrm is Evil, I'd look at this again.
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Sorry, I should've explained this. JNV does like to do suspicion kills. (False flag ones sometimes so it depends.) But also the main reason you leave noisy players alive as an Elim is if you have noisy teammates. It's entirely possible this is a IKYK kill meant to make us infer the team is quiet players, but given the shrinking group size, I think it's more pragmatic: killing me shrinks the PoE least and gives them more space to hide, which points to a specific sort of player profile. Reason why that player profile matters? It's the why not Xino question. Because if you flip Xino V (as I mentioned, I am still decently committed to V!Xino), then the hiding pool is more or less <JNV, Bookwyrm, Turtle> and I've already been aggressively clear about my view of V!Turtle. Dunno. Open to @Ashbringer on NKA. But also Ash, why'd you expect to get killed? My view was that enough people were insisting you weren't really V that I find it an odd statement. And with your Knife used, you aren't a direct role threat to them currently.
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I do feel the inactive Elim profile case is a bit stronger. And that the kill feels like a JNV kill. Though in all fairness, I don't know Bookwyrm's kill meta. That is: In particular for @Ashbringer and @The Wandering Wizard - if you know you're V (which you should, you should always know your own alignment ) then this should point you to a very pure late game swing to TUN. And if the swing is pure, then the only places for the Elims to be are really: <JNV, Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle.> I'd further argue we have some reason to V!read both Xino and Turtle. That sort of leaves us with those two. ...Huh. Why do Bookwyrm, Turtle, and xino always like voting together, Elim team confirmed :eyes: Wiz in particular will know with a high likelihood if the JNV train is pure, which I believe it is. I think this should indicate that Bookwyrm's vote is suspect, and of the three remaining on the train, I'm definitely most inclined to suspect JNV. I don't deny Xino could be making a play for trust, but that requires I think a Xino/JNV team, meaning that if we have one more exe to go, lynching within <Bookwyrm, JNV> should clear that world up. But that's why I prefer JNV. It helps address paranoid Xino possibilities
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This is true. But I think we currently think two man team is the most likely world, especially with only one known protect. Which means there wasn't much to be done, either. It's a rough adjustment for me because the Elim team of necessity leaves a smaller trace due to smaller team size. Oh? Why so? FWIW guys, where I'm at for the moment is at least one, if not both of JNV and Bookwyrm. For the moment, I'm going to vote JNV again. I didn't like their shift to Silho - too much waffling, and I didn't like their reaction (or lack thereof) to Archer. Feels maybe a tad bit TMI informed, given most of us were at least entertaining some E!Archer credences. Am willing to go Bookwyrm as well if that's where everyone wants to be, but.
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Right. Quick and dirty vote analysis so I can actually sleep for more than an hour for once. JNV posts and votes on Silho. This is the vote state at this point in the cycle. I'll do a full 'from the beginning' vote analysis later, this is quick and dirty. In that same post, I shift from JNV to Silho. Silho becomes the lead train for the moment. 14 hours ago, 13 hours if we are talking time to rollover. Not the danger point yet IMO. Bookwyrm votes on Silho for self-pres. Bookwyrm has been voting on and off Silho all cycle and that feels opportunistic. We are looking at: I want to highlight this vote as this is the second time Bookwyrm has slotted onto a major train in as many cycles and proceeded to leave his vote there. He did that with Archer in C1 (fourth vote) and has now done it again for Silho (third vote.) He does move off Silho for a bit, which is a somewhat good look, but nevertheless. Evil move. I eventually am convinced enough to move from Silho to JNV, after a bunch of PMs with Silho and more reflection on my tunnels. And asking Wiz if I was tunnelling .__. The votecount: This is also the move Ash @s me for later, about leading a vote swing off Silho and onto a new train on JNV. Wiz joins me on JNV subsequently. The trains are tied. Two minutes after Wiz, Silho puts a self-pres vote on JNV. The JNV train is now in the lead, but for a very short amount of time. Three minutes later, Turtle votes on Silho for self-pres, bringing it to 3/3. Worth noting that Turtle says they might vote on JNV if JNV returns, which of course doesn't happen. JNV's teammate might know this is a safe condition. This vc continues through Mat's announcement of an hour and two minutes left in the cycle. Ash comments about not liking ties and a preference for Bookwyrm. @Ashbringer, who would you have voted if Xino hadn't intervened? Turtle doesn't like the JNV train, either. Xino swoops in and makes the fateful decision at fifteen minutes to rollover, putting Shining in the lead and preventing anyone from needing to act to preserve JNV. So in answer to Turtle's question: the simple answer is that people were acting to save JNV - Ash discouraged the JNV train, and you explicitly were against it. Bookwyrm voted Silho at a time when JNV was the opposing train. Or, as you say, we could postulate inactives. And on a purely votes basis, Xino breaks the tie in favour of Shining, which still saves JNV. (Sure, there are role reasons to v!read - we could argue if the Elims really wanted me dead, Turtle could just have not claimed fenweed and roleblocked Xino and then killed me. Xino could claim to be roleblocked instead of putting in that protect, if we think they're teammates, instead of having to protect me. But this had to be said anyway. Because with these protective actions, there's no need for JNV's teammates to get involved anyway.) This could also synch nicely with Ash noticing that Bookwyrm was watching the thread, even if Bookwyrm then went off by EoD - the time you guys commented Book was offline for nineteen minutes: This is at 0159hrs. Working backwards, Bookwyrm was last on at 0140hrs. Admittedly five minutes before Xino saves JNV, so that's a good look. But then again, Bookwyrm was already voting Silho, the main CW, so there's nothing more Bookwyrm could've done anyway. Problem is that giving the Elims an extra free kill can be volatile. But I'm definitely wondering if they have some fenweed - this should soften the Village protects. I don't see a world without Village protects, due to the fact that Violation already promises to take down some Villagers, and this is volatile either way. One Village protect is on the smaller side (if there is another, you should probably claim now, especially if you protected me, PM me privately or something if you're worried about saying it in thread) - but that gels with a two Elim team assumption. Knife and two Elims is especially volatile. The other issue is that if Elims have a free kill, they probably just blow it ASAP. You could argue the 50% shot makes them more cautious but if you think about it, their position only weakens near endgame when you really need every Elim you can get.
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I lean towards just claiming but recognise that in a 5/2 world, people may prefer to hold off one more cycle to real lylo. We're either 4/3 or 5/2. More likely 5/2. In 5/2 world, next cycle is lylo. (See: discussion we've already had about distro.) I'm mildly surprised they chose not to attack Xino. Protect is a far more high-value role than regular. It's possible Xino really is E (I lean against this still because they have an easier variant to run with, I think.) Another salient possibility is they decided to try to get rid of me in order to push Xino, but it's just odd on so many levels because surely I would be a predictable Lurch target as Xino couldn't self-target last cycle. Silho being V makes me lean towards my interpretation of the C1 EoD swing as Silho was the one player I wasn't so sure of. Maybe I could revise my Ash read but I'm still finding the idea of a knife Elim being a difficult pill to swallow in light of our current distro. It's not impossible, but WGG is usually pulled when you need trust or to explain why you're still alive. I uh, don't actually have that problem In a two member team world, who pushes? Not ruling this out of hand, but asking. Noteworthy that Ash asked about the Silho train as well. I actually doubt this. WBG generally requires thread control. If they want to convincingly WBG me, they'd need someone on their roster or roster-adjacent, i.e. pocketed and capable of taking me in a threadfight, and that takes seeding the groundwork. You could argue it's an inexperienced team so they didn't realise that they needed groundwork to WBG but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ To put it more bluntly, it's possible someone was trying to seed the groundwork for it via Ash, but while I think a threadfight with Ash would be an interesting world, I don't think they have what it takes to make a WBG succeed in this instance, considering I'm the one defending Ash against PoE, which instinctively means there's a credibility deficit anyway. Most Elim teams generally find it's more effort-saving to just NK me and be done with it (Hi Mat!) I will say this is not a fully counter-intuitive kill: I was commenting to Stick before EoD that I couldn't call it but I expected them to either hit me or hit Xino, and moreover, that I felt it was anticipatable enough that I'd ask to be Lurched but felt it was bad manners to do so and would rather Xino make his own calls. I'd like to hear @Ashbringer run some NKA, but my thought would be that this is a team that is prioritising control kills over Lurches, which could ironically demonstrate some sophistication. Lurchers aren't a problem if they're not Lurching your target or if you believe the Village will reliably ML. Or they could have a decent risk appetite. Fair, just feel it's important to keep us grounded in likelihood. Elims will drown us in possibilities if we let them - see QF62 Mat and FUD. Our job is to look for the most plausible set of worlds and play there. Edited to add: Interesting question for you all Well, one for @Matrim's Dice first: do we actually know how many charges Silho died with? And for the rest of the class: Take this at face value: two Villagers with Fenweed. One Villager with a Tent. One Villager with a one-shot Knife. What do the Elims need to handle one recurring protect and two charged roleblocks and a one-shot kill?
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Next cycle likely lylo. If Turtle V and Nked check who on now
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I'm struggling to see an Ash team. E!Ash with a knife (no one has contested this knife claim!) seems to suggest a three man team, and that needs...more protects than we've seen so far, and also suggests we're at lylo. (Seems a bit harsh if Ash's kill fails and the team is down to a solo member. I guess it's not impossible since Ash could always decide not to use the knife in this world, but the secondary thing is that Ash could defensibly just not intervene or lynch Archer - his stance was ties were bad, after all. He lynches Archer and stabs me, and we have a very interesting C2, especially if you believe I'm V. He doesn't ever have to declare the knife stab, so all we know is that an Elim killed me, and it isn't as though the Archer ML would've been that indefensible either.) I am not very sure this would make sense for E!Ash, basically. Fair. I don't recall if Bookwyrm was around at EoD - your C1 message suggested Bookwyrm wasn't. At the same time, I'm just really not fond of their non-response to a post that I'd personally read as JNV-bait. Maybe that should be more Village-JNV indicative, but I'm sort of at the point where I feel I have tunnelled too hard on Shining in LG90 to feel good about pushing him again today. I just don't trust myself anymore. If he's Evil, great, much thanks to Xino, y'all can lynch me if you want to, but this is not a train I feel I can confidently or comfortably pursue without feeling as though I have it out for the player, personally, on matters of playstyle so that's sort of where I'm at, and I think that's contaminating my Shining reads, explaining why I have been zigzagging between V!Silho and E!Silho all cycle. And you were so distraught when we were running to pile on TUN! To everyone: On the chance that I do get NKed and not Xino (not impossible, who knows ) - you need to make an assessment. If it is lylo next cycle (check the numbers!), y'all should consider mass-claiming. There is no point in keeping roles hidden at lylo since we'd be screwed anyway, and knowing the distro may help to make certain assessments more plausible than others. Elims may fakeclaim of course, so don't just run off the claim but assess plausibility. But it kinda hurt watching Villages just not do that out of some misguided sense of opsec when I was dead in AG8 and LG90 so I just want to stress here that this option should very much be on the table, even if I'm not around to advocate for it anymore.
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Xino: Making the hard choices so I don't have to
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Yeah, but we've been over this in the LG90 dead doc too, and that's that reifying reasons gets us E!TUN and E!Wiz in LG90. I'm distrustful of reasons talk too much, given Bookwyrm's experience at this juncture. I've sort of got him in my head as a quasi-Jain/Ashiok at the moment, not sure if that's quite right but that's where he is. Like...it's literally how Wiz et al were pushing V!Stick. "Oh, you voted without reasons!" and I'm sort of sensing that's probably not what you had in mind. You thinking Bookwyrm is more likely to be a lurker Elim? That's not really lurker play, though. That's drawing attention. Worthwhile looping in @The Wandering Wizard at this point because his issue with JNV does sound like a quasi-CC but I suspect it's a lurker Elim profile type argument, really. And I can sorta see it, given the Xino kill attempt. Maybe. IDK. On the other hand, you kill low profile when you're noisy, don't you? ? TUN was advocating V!Kas over E!Kas. E!me gains no strategic value from taking out V!TUN and wasting a source of support in thread. It's possible you could speculate that I was partnered with E!Turtle, but in that world, you should be lynching in <Turtle, me> which I note you're not doing I'd also point out Turtle had just self-presed to go 4/3 with Archer, and even expecting Archer to show up, I could either absorb the 50% odds, or unvote from Turtle/just go side-train from the start. Tying Turtle with Archer for the sake of distancing is kinda self-inflicted wounds all over. I'd also have little reason to try to go all out to save Archer. The Archer ML was already in full swing and with Bookwyrm being fourth-voter on that train, E!me could just sit back and let the Village do the circular shooting gallery deal. Since Archer is probably the only player in this game who could challenge me for thread control, E!me'd be wise to get rid of Archer ASAP instead of trying to save him last minute by going TUN. Extra layer - we can suppose I was trying to set Archer up for a ML when TUN flipped V, but once again, I can achieve the same by just pushing the Turtle CW if you believe Turtle is V. If you believe Turtle is E, we go back to the fact I'd've chosen to deliberately endanger my teammate to try to ML Archer which is several flavours of kasyana when Archer was gonna die anyway. Why set up the ML for next cycle if I can get it C1? YMMV though, maybe I'm more of an Evil mastermind than I knew ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm not confident in JNV either, but I don't trust myself fully on Silho - eh, I've laid my position out already in the previous post. But I have half an hour to try to get this right and make up my mind.
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Ah okay that sorta self-pres, got it. And gentlespren and gentlebeings, we have... ANOTHER TIE! An hour before rollover! What shenanigans await us? Edited to add: I should've remembered this but legit thought I'd opened it which is nuts since I already mentioned opening one with Ash... This strict PM diet in this game is causing me pain
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A. You were not endangered at the point of the votecount. What is with this vote couched as self-pres? Feels a bit ? B. @Ashbringer - Open to being talked onto Book if you have thoughts there. It turns out one hour to rollover means this hour *slaps hood* can fit so much rethinking in it! C. This cycle, I'm presuming? D. Should've used it to vote Araris last game :eyes: To be clear, I'm not dead set on JNV. I'm sort of oscillating between E!Silho and V!Silho and I think there's almost a case to be made that if you want to just infolynch him, you should do it now because the Elims will never kill him when he's being this confusing, and next cycle is set to be lylo. Leaving the pragmatic case aside, my issue with JNV is just some read fuzziness (which, to be fair, tends to be true most of the time), but also I find their non-reaction to Archer's post...odd, given that's almost certainly the sort of thing that's JNV comment fodder. I PMed JNV about it and they mentioned something about it being very unlikely Archer would commit given the 40% shot at death and it being a crazy Archer Village plan but also uncertainty about Archer's alignment. The two of that...doesn't seem to gel together very well. I can be talked into Bookwyrm ig but that feels very LHF right now, despite inner Shadow telling me to Nike (TM). But yeah willing if there's a good case for it. I have a suspicion inner Orlok would wanna go for Wiz a little, but I'm a quokKas, not Orlok so that's fine. I do still V!lean Wiz. I am not sure I trust myself on Silho anymore, but also, the pragmatic argument does carry some weight in my eyes. Edited to add: Can't blame a man for defending his Village reads, Mr GM sir >> Well I guess you can but.
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Silho JNV Warmmha forgive me.
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Why am I so tempted to V!read this and also E!read this at the same time. Why didn't I get N1ed. Why do I play SE. Why am I questioning my life and my choices. Wyrm, I miss you bro
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@Turtle @Shining Silhouette Or let me put it this way: In my SE experience so far, if you believe you've cracked it on C2, you've probably made a big mistake somewhere that will come to stab you in the back. That, and the circumstances don't make me fully ok with this. I would really like to not ML V!Silho if it is V!Silho as I feel bad enough about LG90, so I am extremely committed to trying to get this right, and this means @ing people and trying to get discussion going. Fair. Does D1 EoD change your views of Turtle? And why the initial Book vote C1 then? Fair enough. Certainly I think if you and Turtle are teammates, it is still quite hardcore to offer to lynch Turtle EoD if Xino moves. That's quite some commitment there. So am not thinking that is likely. You've probably mentioned this once already, but just to get it on one page, what's your thoughts on likely team composition right now? @The Bookwyrm - Same question.
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Presume that was behind your null+ of TUN D1, or? Silho started in LG88, had a good run as an Elim in QF62, and made clutch Village moves in LG89 and LG88, for which I will never underestimate him So yeah. IDK about the likelihood of a Bookwyrm/Silho team but I - like, how many of us have sussed Bookwyrm so far? Is it really a case of lack of commitment to the lynch that has kept Bookwyrm alive? Or are we just looking in the wrong direction? Nothing precludes everyone being collectively right - check out how many people sussed Mat last game but lacked commitment to push his lynch - but I do feel uncomfortable when that's the consensus and nothing much is happening because that kind of feels off. I admit part of my problem is I can't read Bookwyrm. Both Bookwyrm's D1 votes scream Evil to me, but the experience issue still confounds things so IDK if I'm looking at the right level of analysis here. Say JNV and Wiz - question for both of them is how long do I let the early clear persist for? It's worth at least asking myself: if I bracket that, where does my read of you go? I don't want to make too many guesses about team likeliness in retrospect because: A. strongly dependent on what rands Mat selected from, B. strongly dependent on Mat's GM meta, C. we've had new(er) player heavy Elim teams before, though rarely because of the high volatility problem. @Turtle Reckon you've said it before, but at this point, what is your speculated Elim team?
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Could've went for Archer and stabbed me, yes. Then interesting C2 Okay. Here's what it comes down to for me: Everyone voted, in the end. We have exactly one holdout voter on Wiz: TUN, who flipped Village. The lack of energy in the early part of the cycle is explained by lots of votes going nowhere and a train on V!Archer. At thirty-three minutes to rollover, I swap off Archer and go onto Turtle, tying the two trains and bringing Turtle into contention. I don't feel we saw much of a save Turtle drive from outside Turtle, who later breaks the tie. My TUN swing was explicitly a save Archer swing, and Shining was willing to vote Turtle if we could get Xino to defect, as was I. The counterpoint is that if we are postulating a team of two and I lean towards that given current distro, then I am not sure we see much of that anyway. The Elims could be comfortable with self-pres since this game has no vote manip. Though it also depends on their risk appetite. But the fact this sort of sat there for quite a bit until Turtle self-presed on Archer makes me feel as though there was some fundamental comfort with the EoD trains. But this brings us to a question. The road from here to: involves a significant amount of hopping between TUN and Turtle. But we also know that Archer was Village, and I at least know I'm Village. E!Silho being willing to jump to save teammate Turtle is all very well and good, but then Silho would've had to bus Turtle if Xino showed up. This could be possible (see: QF62, though that was a Mat play), but that does feel a bit odd a calculus for E!Silho. I'm sort of stuck in the position of not really being able to believe the TUN train was pure (statistically kayana) but also, the bigger question. We know both the Archer and TUN trains collectively had to have Elims. This is because our only other side-train, the Wiz train, had just TUN and TUN flipped Village! What this entails: -Likely Elim participation on the TUN swing - but why do the Elims care about the TUN swing? Or to put it another way: why save Archer when you could just ML Archer? -Potential Elim participation on the Archer train - honestly just a <Xino, Bookwyrm> set. -Elims saw no reason to intervene and did not participate in the swing itself: <Xino, Bookwyrm, Turtle, JNV.> Part of my problem with this is that I'm not sure about the extent to which I'm fine with a Bookwyrm/JNV team. Current Reads: JEDI KNIGHT (Light Village): PADAWAN (Mild Village): INITIATE (Null +): ACOLYTE (Null -): For the benefit of newer players who haven't seen me use this format before, my paranoia means I tend to be reluctant to give Moderate Village reads this early in the game, so my reads list is functionally depressed. I should maybe think of better labels, but I gotta live with it. As I said, this points me to Silho, but I'm having difficulty figuring out why E!Silho cares about a TUN swing. That's the main issue that stops me. Incidentally: what PMs did you all open, and in what hour? I opened a PM with Ash C1 at about an hour after the cycle began. I opened a PM with Xino C2 at nearly two hours after rollover.
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Calm thread, placid cycle, distributed votes. This isn't good. The Archer+TUN trains combined cannot be pure. The question is whether the Archer or the TUN train is pure. Book's vote on Archer from D1 still looks opportunistic as all hell. @The Bookwyrm - Why go on Wiz in the first place, and what made you change your mind about Wiz? Silho's rapid switch from Book to Turtle under challenge sort of looks ? - @Shining Silhouette - What motivated your swap to Turtle? You mentioned that you wanted to get a reaction from Book but I doubt your vote was really parked on Book for very long. @Ashbringer, you say at EoC that you dislike ties. Why tiebreak onto TUN when you could tiebreak onto Archer and not need to stab him? I'm currently unwell. Will edit in my notes/further thoughts after I've had some time to clean them up and get rest. For the moment: JNV Silho Let's shift the dynamics of the situation a little. Edited to add: Ok, less time than I expected. Dumping notes in case anyone has a better idea. Back later. Notes:
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i what
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Hard to get much of a read off a single post. So it reflects uncertainty. JNV dipped and didn't come back. I am only slightly comfortable with that green off the basis of their behaviour. They felt disengaged in a way I wasn't sure if E!JNV would be so ready to be. But suppose I commit to V!Shining — JNV is one of the places I'd revise my reads. My problem with E!you just boils down to the fact I don't think E!you is as genuinely confused about the sudden TUN train. I also think E!you would be more aware that you are next and be less vocal about TUN or potentially more willing to self-pres there given the high pressure. My problem with E!Silho is that if I'm theorising a Bookwyrm-Silho team, then Silho is willing to vote Bookwyrm which doesn't feel right for this team. I also think putting a new player on a two man Elim team can be very rough if their partner dies and Mat would have selected between multiple distros so that can be slightly avoided. Maybe it's too meta an assumption but there you go. I kind of feel that E!Silho shouldn't be so ready or willing to jump for a last minute Archer saving train or swap to TUN/you. Maybe, if he scented an Archer/me ML off it? I am not sure it feels right though. Worth noting that Ash dragged his feet on train swapping and Turtle expressed qualms. Think it is worth disambiguating response types to see if we can ID any Village patterns.
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IDK. We managed just fine in LG89... .__.
