Kasimir

Accounting for TJ's vote shift.

AFAICT: I'm actually disliking the rapid accumulation of votes on you and TUN and am considering if a more quiet and easily-intimidated Elim team is trying to use this to push out all the veterans. I don't fully know how I read either of you, but this is not a train I really like that much. Edited to add: Any chance you can spell out what you mean by vibes a little more? Yes and no. It's within Roy's range for either alignment, but at Roy's current post count, there's no telling which, which itself IMO calls for a bit of pressure. I'm also trying to understand this D1 post from Null: Null initially wanted to create a tie so no one died by voting TUN. (I don't understand the TUN vote and retain my question about it - why TUN when the lead trains were clearly TJ and KSauce? How does TUN create a tie? Then, how do you go from a "well I guess I can't avoid one death" mindset to "I'll keep my vote on Unknown despite a 3/3 tie meaning both TJ and KSauce die" mindset? This kind of suggests you felt there's something attractive about the TUN vote and yet the OG TUN vote was both unexplained and suggested to be as a result of a desire for a no exe D1. How does this make sense? Edited to add 2: I suppose part of it is the fact I still low key expect TJ to flip Village but I guess I could always be wrong here. Wouldn't be the first time. D1 had the TJ and KSauce trains remain fairly sticky. There's a bunch of side-trains in the vicinity, but tempo was low and that makes me feel like there was low investment, and not just on TJ's part, to make the save. To me, that doesn't really read like the kind of thread that is on the cusp of exeing an Elim D1.

@Negative_Null - Can I ask what was in your head at the point of this vote? This was the votestate when you voted TUN: Striker had unvoted TUN, and TUN had voted Penguin quite a few posts ago, so there was no way voting TUN would've created a tie, as you proposed. You're also more anti-tie today: what changed? Edited to add: Nvm ignore the tie question, I've just found this post which suggests that you thought it would avoid an exe and that you wanted to vote for a no exe D1. ...I kinda wanna V!read that, ironically, lol. Edited to add 2: Lmao gdi I guess I mindmelded with D1 Kas? Anyway, @StrikerEZ - I'll try to clear the cycle and come back with a vc, I'm hoping to at least briefly drop a D1 vote analysis even though I also know there is no NK so I can be contemporary I guess.

RBM is the second voter on KSauce and I'd completely forgotten that vote even existed. I've been going over the past cycle - chronologically, it's #1 Penguin, #2 RBM, #3 you. I linked the post RBM made because RBM dropped the vote, refused to elaborate too much beyond the post, and left. Not even a vote from Aster got an explanation. It's certainly true that RBM might've been RL busy but IMO KSauce regardless is a Villager who went over, and in light of that, I'm trying to learn more about weird votes given the suspicion the train had an Elim. Maybe it's clean, sure. But lead train, and if everyone still thinks E!TJ (we'll find out shortly), there probably had better be one on KSauce, and if it's not you or Penguin... P.S. To everyone, I've been on the Shard since 2014 and I only just learned via Dragonmount which has a similar forum interface that pressing the arrow on the top right corner of a quote takes you to the OG post, on mobile or browser Bee replies to you saying: What KSauce did before that: -Vote TJ -Reply to Penguin about being asleep (same post as TJ vote) -Random.org joke -Determinism can of worms opened What's this vote based on? Where's Roy coming from? Aster asked about this and I don't recall us getting an answer even after RBM showed up again this cycle.

Back to RBM. Aster may have cooked with that vote. I'll reply and post vc later but RBM is second voter, and I'd like to know what was on his mind at that time EDIT: Tbh I'd forgotten that vote existed.

Fair, and good to know. I mean, I've said this in PMs so I might as well say out loud: I think Spirit mentioned most of his experience is from IRL and he's played some pretty impressive Elim games here tbh so I don't think it's entirely incompatible. My favourite was GMing and watching him stonewall this very scary Village player Could go both ways. I'd probably be more antsy about the actives if I didn't read so many of them as Village, so I want to look at the people going under the radar for a bit. I guess I should say it explicitly in thread since I told Striker as much when he asked me why I was sussing him: as a player, Striker tends to be a risk demon, and IMO like Aster, both of them can end up being read as Elim pretty easily even when they're Village. Both of them have respectable maf games, and I guess part of it is because they play so well with risk. This matters because I agree that his stance on ties on D1 etc kind of gels with V!Striker, I still like his entrance, but ngl I'm not really thrilled with his EoD which had a bit of "he's here to watch Rome burn and play the fiddle" energy. I also think it's kind of weird Striker pushed KSauce on the specific theory that KSauce had inactive teammates—it just feels like a hyper-specific scenario to consider, to the point it feels forced. Striker's rejoinder was that it's D1, most reasoning is forced, which...is consistent with how V!Striker has argued previously (AG8) even though I actually also think it is a little bad faith (forced =/= finding the most specific and therefore arguably lower probability world to work with.) My main reason for not pushing Striker rn is a bit selfish which is that I haven't played with him in over two years, assume he's also a tad rusty, and want him to get into the game so I can read him better. But I guess if I'm being honest, I'm watching him. I'm open to the thought I'm just reading him wrong rn. Would like to give you credit for this but tbh I feel Aster looks the best out of everyone over the tie dialogue because that's kind of too Elim-sided (at face value) for an Elim to want to actively push for. Asterisks because Aster loves risks. But...honestly yeah kinda talking myself into promoting Aster by a read tier potentially. But also, there's no night... No night kill either... Just want to remind for your benefit and everyone else's that you cannot legally edit into your text Really tiny changes is fine (e.g. spelling/grammar) but IMO something like a wrong vote should have an edit note and then you change the vote and @ the GM (there's a more specific rule you cannot edit in votes and should make a fresh post but this was way before the automerge toxicity.) Edited to add: For the record, I did see the OG vote and it was for Polly.

Odd question: Do you think a team which watched the whole trying to get me to push you/allow you to be exed thing result in the deaths of E!Aman and E!Aeo would think this is a viable strat in a V!Kas world? I recognise it's somewhat implied in low thread control but I think there's some exclusions possible.

I guess my problem is we usually go back to "something unexpected happened" after the more reasonable worlds are explored. Like most Elim teams don't forget* to put in a kill, so if there is no kill, we usually investigate RB and protect possibilities first, that kind of thing. I can see optimal play being less considered in a game like this, but I'm also kind of concerned (and tbh that is my qualm with C2 Polly although it could be my paranoia/tunnel at this point) that both of you are pushing to expand the possibility pool rather than start with what's most likely first. You make checking the first order possibility sound like a bad thing but I'm not convinced it is. In the most extreme/classic philosophical example from Bennet's discussion of ordinary counterfactuals and the hook interpretation/arrow interpretation - yeah it's true if I throw a ball it may quantum tunnel through the floor, or John Cena might slide in and invisibly catch it. But in most worlds, it's just gonna hit the floor and bounce and it'd be minimally weird or actually epistemically irresponsible for me to go for those first. It's also why I asked Polly for odds btw, besides knowing she loves betting I'm tryna figure out if it's coming from good faith or y'all just tryna expand the pool and FUD. In Aster's case, I'm fine as I think she's correct to point to the fact it could very well be bait. I'm just...not convinced it's productive to argue this at the current vc. *For Aster's benefit, as it's uh, a bit more common for him.

BRO YOU LITERALLY PUT IT WITH ZERO FKING CONTEXT IN A POST ABOUT NULL, WHO TF AM I SUPPOSED TO TAKE IT AS!?!?!?!?!?!? Edited to judge TJ harder:

???

Any idea who TJ might mean by this? I think I'll find out soon. I'm probably playing a game on Dragonmount for courtesy/favour reasons and they do 72 hours. Edited to add: In an E!TJ world, gonna guess Null and TJ not teamed for pretty obvious reasons!

Polly living the high life here compared to Aeo. Getting into queue contention already without waiting 12 years

Tbh I'm of the view we just ignore the inactives since there's no kill. If there's no kill, they can't do terrible things just by sending in orders. There's the other option where we just add them to ties eventually I guess. IDR the PH policy for this game off the top of my head and CBF to check. Which is an aside to what my immediate thought was, which is that tbh I'm cautiously considering how much the Elims are in the inactives, especially Demon and Yevad. Kinda, a low bar to avoid is to show up and just vote. I'd considered Tinwatcher for the role of one of the lurking Elims but IDK, voting TOW and then realising the mistake and self-voting...not sure that's especially Elim. Lmao maybe I've forgotten how to play this game. Anyway. The people in that set include: <TOW, Tinwatcher, Triple B, Aster, Spirit, Null.> (All low-lying voters, though maybe that's a bit much to say RE: Aster.) Of this set, I probably V!read Aster and Spirit, IDK about Null but could theoretically respect TJ's read (not sure, can someone else @The Unknown Order tell me if Null played your LG and how Null's play was?) - some of it depends on if I think E!TJ defends an E!partner that way. This probably leaves me thinking there is at least one Elim in <TOW, Tinwatcher, Triple B>. (Realistically maybe just one.) RBM can be an outside possibility for showing up and not caring to vote as I can kinda see E!RBM do that. <TOW, Tinwatcher, Triple B, RBM.> [NOTE: Remember to pathwalk E/V TJ worlds, am currently working so I don't have time to go too in-depth atm. Ngl not worrying about the NK here is doing wonders for my urgency to get analysis done...] I guess you could say the Elim team doesn't care about removing inactivity votes via the Soothe, but that's also something that's a potential waste of the Soothe for. IDK if they'd necessarily do that. There are definitely Elims in the higher activity set, I'm just looking elsewhere because I think TJ is flipping today in most worlds due to vote stability at present. I don't like the vote stability but I think the sidetrains also matter. I think I'm switching to Tinwatcher for the moment. Fair. Doesn't this mean more risk averse? Watch out, we got a Best Finn Balor fan here Edited to add:

From a vote analysis perspective, and the fact you were present through to EoD and kept your vote on KSauce man. Vote analysis looks at what people do, not what they say. Easy for Elims to give multiple reasons.

Yes sorry.

Honestly I don't disagree with it, but I'd also generally not believe I'm that good, and it feelsbad to go "yeah you can't remotely be read I'm going to just kill you all just in case" cf. LG12 the Desolation of Elantris. I'm aware it's game-winning, I just also think it's cold. Just from the perspective of people taking it seriously and campaigning to be in that last three, it's going to be pretty much just accelerated lylo. I think it's also possible to adopt a different game lock strategy FWIW, which would probably skew Village in terms of results, it would just also be boring as all hell. That's weird to me in a way. You have views on risk I typically don't but you're also colder on epistemic risk than I am. Current reads: Light Village: Penguin, Spirit Mild Village: Aster, Striker???, Tinwatcher Null: Anyone not mentioned, TUN, TOW*, Polly??? Null-: TJ @Lord Spirit had a good catch about not redoing your votes too many times because of the Elims; in light of TJ's monopoly, I'm voting RBM. I don't want to do Polly again because I'm worried I'm overtunneling. @The Unknown Order Reads other than TJ Evil? Secondary train who? Edited to add: ffs RBM @A Jo in the Bush

Bhai, please be aware you have about 24 more hours to make a call on this. I'm also gonna ping @Aeoryi / @Araris Valerian / @KelsierApologist due to the state of the queue right now. Edited to add: For the benefit of those not on the Discord: No response: Experience, Wiz, Xino, Elan, Fifth Unable to with asterisks: Aman, Ash, Steel Edited to add 2: I deal with you later, since I gotta login

Edited to add 2: No, but the standard for a normal game of this size is about 3-4. If this were a completely normal game with a standard kill and all regulars, it's 3 Elims for 15 players. Our issue is we don't know how big the team goes - since the rule is pretty non-standard, Jo might buff them by adding more. IMO in the most oddball world, we have a new player-dominant team of 6 but 6 might be pushing it. I think I speculated 6 yesterday but am back to 3-4. IMO Aster reads more Village in that exchange than Striker does. Hope is not a strategy but Aster is a risk demon. I asterisk the read because I do think it can be a slightly Elim leaning one. What's the alternative for the Elims in your view - lie down and let E!TJ die? Sure - can you offer me odds on which world is more likely? @|TJ| - Null played before you said? This is either classic new player kneejerk, or a new player Elim. I did feel eh about the EoD, but yeah. This isn't particularly helpful (and if E!TJ, Striker would be one of the players I'd squint at RE: on the KSauce CW). With no exeing, death-wise it's equivalent to a normal cycle since that's the NK accounted for. Polly was at 2 man there was no way in hell you all get removed unless you and Ksos both have a vote removed. I'm confused about where this comes from.

I don't like endgame ties because I don't believe in our accuracy and I think we are more often than not going to hit a villager when we broaden the scope of who is dying. You and Striker are fundamentally risk demons - I don't like the risk. I also think ties leading up to endgame are good. Your second statement doesn't require an endgame tie - it's possible to endorse it without endorsing an endgame tie. Edited to add: Again, by this line of reasoning, the game-winning strategy is to tie everyone but yourself and two other strong village reads because you'll most likely kill all the Elims that way!

Is this a villager

I mean, let's pathwalk. If TJ flips E, who are you pushing next in that world? If TJ flips V, who do you push? I've already listed some posts from last cycle that caught my eye. I generally read them V, though with more hesitancy for Aster as I think there's TMI there and would appreciate further pairs of eyes, hence it being in the thread. My main E candidate would be Polly (need to re-read and rethink admittedly) and actually I think we should all advocate for a CW to TJ regardless - in the world TJ is Elim, if they really choose to Mercy shield TJ, we don't want the exe boomeranging on someone random. Edited to add: Just make sure there's a vote differential that can't be blocked by Soothing.

Smart choice, it's the shortest list. Added.

Demanding It's in alphabetical order too now, and weighted by real votes first.

Someone @ me if I missed anyone. @StrikerEZ

Tbh I just forgot the Soothe existed and questioned why E!TJ wouldn't, you know, show up and vote before that. And then he continued to make my brain explode by not voting when he could save himself easily - this terrified me that we were in a V!TJ world where he just decided to commit seppuku. I still don't like his entrance and I guess I'll spell out a little what I was doing with my questions. You can't ask everyone this or it becomes obvious what you're doing. But generally Elims just have Elim entrances, and Villagers have Village entrances, IMO. Sometimes you can force matters a little by throwing an Elim a curveball. Stick and Aman and I think Xino all did that to me by asking me how it felt like to rand Elim for the first time in forever and despite my comments in the E!doc about expecting it, they really threw me off and I think my response was just a tad awkward and unnatural as a result. I did that to E!Moth last game I played (this is more for Aster's benefit) and got a weird answer but decided I wasn't gonna read into it. I felt Striker had a pretty casual answer and I liked his vibes. I felt divided about TJ's response but eventually came around to the thought he felt like he was trying to go for an elaborate deflection. It wasn't really casual, just kinda forced/guarded. That was the basis of my OG TJ suspicion, which I think TOW asked me about in that PM but I wasn't into saying too much about it at that time. Welcome to BS theory brought to you by the fact I don't have enough tea to do vote analysis. I don't think it was a bro read, just a situational thing. But I acknowledge broing TJ did mean I felt more conflicted about voting him there. Why it's different from last game, IDK what to tell you, I was just more sold on him being Evil last game whereas the situation confused me this one. Oh yeah, to you and I think, TUN - I think my main issue is I don't feel the tempo issue is as clear this game. In theory, in a game with a NK, losing a tempo is rough. In a game where votes persist, yeah, you can kinda say the maf gain an advantage by being to make 4-6 persistent votes extra, but these votes also only matter when they create a tie or force a lead train. The upside of tempo IMO is weaker, while the downside of it is higher - that's just more time for the Village to find you. Something I've found as Elim from previous games: nothing is as bloody annoying as Villagers who won't shut the hell up, stop PMing, and stop questioning the exe and whatever not. Because you have to keep on maintaining control of the gamestate. That is actually a downside, both to the sanity of your thread controller, and to your team if you lack one (because then you are stuck with dealing with Village volatility and having to sit it out.) tldr; when you Elim, this is mood at nuisance villagers: