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Seonid

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Everything posted by Seonid

  1. Seonid
    You're making some interesting assumptions there. We don't know what went down when lessie was shot by bloody tan. Was that harmony trying to manipulate wax? Or was that what happened when lessie was rebelling against harmony? It could be that she manipulated things to apparently die because she didn't want to be a way for harmony to manipulate Wax anyone. We literally don't know. We do know that harmony never intended for wax and lessie to fall in love. That was accidental, and changed things. I'm not saying harmony isn't a compared moral character. He is. But we don't have enough information to even be able to tell what's going on, let alone to be able to judge whether his actions are morally right.
  2. Seonid
    Never mind. I forgot that. I shouldn't have, because that's what happened with nico. I blame lack of sleep. Also, Joe confirmed that karlin would have kept his shard for 72 hours, so he's had it since phatt was lynched. Unfortunately, that means that any of the three could be the last OC.
  3. Seonid
    Well that didn't work the way I thought it was going to. Sorry Clanky. My gut said you were innocent, but the data said you had to be guilty. I spent the whole cycle trying to figure out a way that you weren't the one who did it. I asked Joe questions near the end of the cycle that would have changed my actions, but I didn't get answers until after Joe had called time on the cycle. So you died. My fault. Anyways, here is what I have learned - specifically, that neither Dow, Raven, nor Stink can be considered cleared. We should have known that when Odium turned out to go to Karlin. My thoughts are all jumbled right now - it's too late to think - but here's the framework of what I'm looking at. I still think that the cycle that Wilson died is key to finding the killer. Information gained from Joe - A Shard can swap their shard with another shard, each giving up their shard to the other, without problem. Many of you likely already knew that, and it should be setting off alarm bells about clearing someone just because they hold a shard. A shard may also invest in another shard successfully if that player gives up their shard the same cycle. Example: Alvron is Dominion, Hael is Odium. Hael invests in Alvron. Alv passes Dominion to phattemer. Next cycle, Alv may make the Champion kill. Also, a Shard can invest a person and give them their shard in the same cycle, causing the person to have both abilities. Wilson knew this, and talked about it with Kipper and I. What we didn't realize, though, was that this was possible even if the investee held a shard, if they were doing a shard swap. Example - Odium and Dominion are the last 2 players left on Team Evil. They want to be able to do a double-tap. Odium invests Dominion, and passes his shard to him. Dominion passes his shard to Odium. The next cycle, all 3 abilities are available. A Shard can invest in themselves, and if they pass the shard that cycle, they will have the investment ability. Also, anytime Endowment holds a broken shard, they can use the Shardic ability. (Contra Kipper, in my PM - this means that there is a redirect action out there, as well as potentially a Ruin kill ) Also, Ruin kills will always be distinguishable in the write-up from Champion kills/Odium kills. * * * * * * * * * * So, with this in mind, let's see what might have happened on the night Wilson died. Odium obviously eventually went to Karlin (who hasn't died yet - either he has more than 1 vial of pewter or is a super-Devotion!Thug). However, Karlin has been off of the Shard since the 10th of September. Can't have made the kill. Obviously, Clanky didn't either. (Can't believe how wrong I was about that ) I don't have a kill ability, so I couldn't have (I recognize a lot of you don't believe it. All I have to say is LAFO - lynch and find out. But you do it at your peril.) Now, if Endowment held Dominion at the time, Endowment could have redirected Karlin's kill ability to Wilson. Problem is, I know what Dominion redirected that cycle, and it was my investment action. That was the round I stayed Neutral, despite investing in Wilson. Mail couldn't have invested me (because I now know what happens when we both invest, and mine takes precedence). Roleblocking doesn't block investment. That leaves redirection. This actually significantly reduces the number of possible scenarios. I'm waiting on clarification from Joe as to how long he would wait if a Shard was given to an already inactive player. The cutoff is 72 hours, but if you've already been inactive for 72 hours, is it a next-cycle thing, or does the recipient always hold it for 72 hours before losing it due to inactivity? From the assumption that it is 72 hours regardless: Karlin had therefore been holding the Shard of Odium since phatt was lynched. This is either because phatt invested in him and the shard followed the investment, or because phatt passed it there. If phatt had invested, the only way for Wilson to die would be because of Dominion's redirection. But that's already accounted for (see above). So phatt must have passed the shard there. Smart, because it avoids the problem of being invested in and found out. He must also have invested in his compatriot to give them the kill. Who could that have been? Stink had Endowment (but this is not a full and complete clearing, as we shall see). Dow was given Cultivation that cycle. Raven was given Preservation during the day. This seems to indicate that either of them could have been invested in by Odium, and gotten their Shard simultaneously. So either of them could have made the kill. What about Stink? Well, if Stink was evil, then Endowment would have been available to Team Evil since day 6. The only shard available for a while was Dominion, but that was conclusively in the hands of Raven by night 9. No guarantee it didn't come back, and a rather strong indication that either Endowment was passed to Raven or Raven passed dominion back to Stink by night 10, when my investment was redirected. Assume that evil!Stink wouldn't have given Endowment up, so Dominion got moved back to Stink. Likely because the redirect ability is so valuable. So, in this scenario, Stink and phatt likely swapped Odium and Endowment between them to let them still make Champion kills. Under this option, phatt held both shards that day, but invested in Stink, passed Endowment to him, and passed Odium to Karlin. Stink then killed Wilson. This is the most understandable of the options to me. The OC's would not want to give up Odium, and their ability to kill. But if they gave it to an inactive, they knew that they would get it back so long as they had Endowment. If Endowment is evil, then Odium is back in their hands easily. No risk. Just reward. * * * * * * * * * * So, what's the final verdict? I don't know. I strongly suspect that that will be yours to reach without me. I can't imagine any way that I won't be lynched tomorrow, with Clanky dead. If I survive the night, of course. I think I will. After you lynch me, though, and find out that I was on your side all along, read through this again. Hopefully it will help. Either Stink, Dow, or Raven is the last one. I don't know which. My money's on Stink, though. Kipper's guaranteed good. I invested him and was put on Team Village again. Mail tried investing in me day 11, which means that he was still neutral up until then. There are 3 good players left (not counting me, because I can become neutral at any time), which means at most 2 turns until the OCs have parity (less if Mail decides to join them - if I decided to join them with Mail, there would be voting parity right now, and this would be the last cycle. I haven't and won't, and so this isn't the last cycle.) My best bet is Stink. The gambit with giving Odium to Karlin makes the most sense if they are guaranteed to get it back because of Endowment. I'm not conclusive on any of them, though. Final question: What planet was Surgebound on during Night 1? If it was Scadrial, then he could be either a super!Thug or just a Thug with 2 vials. If not Scadrial, then he's a Thug with 2 vials. Orlok intended to invest in Mailliw Night 1, but died that round. So if Orlok's investment was redirected by Alvron to Surgebound, then that's where he got the extra vial from. That's my analysis, thanks for reading. Hope you find it helpful. Sorry if it's incoherent. I'm going to sleep now. G'night.
  4. Seonid
    Somebody decided that I was a Nicroburst! Which fits, I guess. Most of what I do ends up being along the lines of helping other folks do their stuff more effectively...
  5. Seonid
    You get a Shard of Adonalsium! *insert Aether*
  6. Seonid
    I didn't see an experience requirement, but I didn't look too closely. Either way, though, good luck! Wherever you find your new job, I hope you love it.
  7. Seonid
    Here is a Master's-degree level library listing in Salt Lake (second from the bottom, Librarian III,Metadata Cataloger - no idea if it's anything up your alley, but it's a library job...) Utah's a nice place to live, and close to Brandon Sanderson signings.
  8. Seonid
    Chaos was standing right behind me in the line. Maybe 3 or 4 people between us. He got one of the first peeks at the answer. After Zephrer (my brother), and peng (who was right behind me and caught up before I showed everyone else) and a random usher that was standing there.
  9. Seonid
    Glad to be of service. I'm still a little shocked too. It'll be fun to see if Weiry or whoever transcribes the signing records that part.
  10. Seonid
    This is not the case. Any time a spike is outside if a body, the investiture decays. It follows an exponential decay pattern, like radioactivity. Vin's merely hadn't decayed enough to put her below the "coppercloud-piercing" threshold yet. Something like wax's earring, on the other hand, which had been out of a body for centuries, would end up with only a faint charge. (This was my question to Brandon at the signing - when the transcript goes up, then we'll actually have a WoB to link to)
  11. Seonid
    Well...that was embarrassing. I just checked Joe's message, and there was white text. I pay this on mobile normally, so highlighting isn't an option, and quoting everything gets tedious, so I tend to miss a lot of white text. My bad.
  12. Seonid
    Actually, Odium has killed 4 shards. 3 known, 1 unknown. Leiftinspace got that answer a while back and posted it on the forums.
  13. Seonid
    I haven't seen any pride and prejudice movies, but the A&E miniseries with Colin Firth is among the best shows I've ever seen. One of these days, I probably actually need to get down to reading the book, but that's highly unlikely given my available time.
  14. Seonid
    Sorry for the poor wording. I meant that I had confirmed kipper's alignment. If I had confirmed clanky's, I wouldn't be voting for him. Clanky, I'm voting for you because karlin can't be the last oc. Somebody made a kill on Wilson the night cycle after we lynched phattemer. Marlin had to have been inactive for 72 hours (there were roughly 48 hours between the write up when Wilson died and the write up when karlin lost Odium). Somebody active had to have Odium the previous night cycle, and it's either you, me, or Kipper. I've just certified Kipper. If I were the last, mail's investment in me would have ended the game. That leaves you. Stink, Dow, raven, and mail all had unbroken shards that cycle, which would have caused Odium top go to another holder. Stink, with endowment, technically could have held Odium, but he couldn't have been invested, and so couldn't have made the kill on Wilson, who was only a regular worldhopper at that point.
  15. Seonid
    Mail isn't evil. He invested me during the last day cycle, with the message "well you ever be good again." If he claims he didn't, then we might need to take a long, hard look at whether dominion and endowment have been with the same person recently. For myself, I'm looking at Clanky. I think kipper's analysis was right, and I confirmed his alignment by investing in him last night. And mail, the answer to your question is "this cycle." My investment of Kipper happened after your investment of me.
  16. Seonid
    Quick question, Kipper. How could karlin have made the kill on Wilson if he was inactive?
  17. Seonid
    Since Joe hasn't called time yet, I'm going to post my thoughts, because they might be my last. When we lynched phattemer, the cycle that Shallan died, Odium passed to the most recent investee. Then, that Night, Odium killed Wilson. They would have had to have been active for that. So Karlin couldn't have done it. They must have passed it to Karlin after, but why, I don't know. Unless they knew that they could get it back somehow. If they knew they were going to get Endowment the next cycle, due to Shard passing, that might do it. I don't know for sure. The other option is that someone other than Alvron sent in orders for the inactive. Joe only said that Alvron was no longer allowed to do so, not that none of his team did. I don't know where the answer is. But this is what I've got. If I survive until the morning, I'll have more to say.
  18. Seonid
    Somebody PM me that particular juicy spoiler as well, if you would. I'm not likely to have enough cash for Elantris any time soon
  19. Seonid
    I was reading in line for about 3 hours. I had already read the first 6 chapters when they were released as previews, so that helped. I didn't see anyone watching/filming, although Peter had an awesome Allomancer Jak costume that folks got a lot of pictures with.
  20. Seonid
    Gotcha covered, Slowswift! And the line was ridiculously long. I was one of the last people there, and I left at about 3:45 AM And just in case it wasn't clear, Autonomy (posted above) was the Intent of Bavadin's Shard.
  21. Seonid
    Autonomy
  22. Seonid
    What was Bavadin's Intent? I wanted to ask some reckoners questions, but the first questions I asked got RAFOed because they were "tell me something about...X" tour questions, and I couldn't remember any responses questions that weren't that kind. If my phone hadn't died, I could have looked it up, but that didn't work out.
  23. Seonid
    So, I went to the Brandon Sanderson signing last night, and he actually answered my question! And I made it home safely despite almost falling asleep several ties while driving home! And I finished shadows of self while waiting in the signing line. It was awesome!
  24. Seonid
    Except that if endowment really has Odium, then the only reason to worry about a kill is if Odium invested, which if he had done he wouldn't have lost the shard. So I strongly suspect that there won't be any kills tonight unless endowment makes one. I don't have a kill ability (and feel free to roleblock any potential kills I have if you don't trust me).
  25. Seonid
    In American usage, jam is made with the fruit itself, jelly is made with only fruit juice, and marmalade is made using the rind of citrus fruit. All of them use gelatin to thicken them. As for non-fruit jams, I haven't seen any jams that use no fruit, but my mother makes a raspberry-jalapeno jam that is excellent on ritz crackers with cream cheese.
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