Why roshar should attack Scadrial soon and therefore they probably will

[+Oltux72 he/him]

On 29.1.2021 at 4:56 AM, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Well, Shallan has already declared war - albeit unintentionally - on most of Scadrial. Because you can’t declare war on a king/god without declaring war on his subjects/believers. Pretty sure Kell would forgive her to team up against a greater threat.

Right. That raises the question whether the rest of Roshar is OK with her doing that.

this could be interesting. I can imagine a scene where Dalinar tells Adolin to get his psycho wife under control and Adolin explodes and tells him that he is an expert at dealing with rebelious wives.

 

[+Bzhydack he/him]

3 hours ago, Frustration said:

Pretty hard to have a gun facing all directions, and they aren't manueverable enough to avoid them, all the Skybreaker has to do is find a place there isn't a weapon.

Idk... 3-4 positions should cover whole ship, like is with IIWW Bombers.

3 hours ago, Frustration said:

at the permenant cost of at minimum 1,000 breath, with extremly confidential commands, possible yes, not likely for some time yet.

I think Vivenas sword cost less. Nightblood was prototype.

[Valigus]

3 hours ago, Bzhydack said:

Idk... 3-4 positions should cover whole ship, like is with IIWW Bombers.

I think Vivenas sword cost less. Nightblood was prototype.

Do you know what the casualty rates were on those missions? Really high, it’s less powerful but we don’t know about cost.

[+Bzhydack he/him]

11 minutes ago, Valigus said:

Do you know what the casualty rates were on those missions? Really high, it’s less powerful but we don’t know about cost.

Yeah, but those were long raids deep into enemy teritory. In our scenario, Scadrians are defenders, so trips would be shorter and could be combined with other assult for distraction, what isnt possible during long raids.

[Valigus]

1 hour ago, Bzhydack said:

Yeah, but those were long raids deep into enemy teritory. In our scenario, Scadrians are defenders, so trips would be shorter and could be combined with other assult for distraction, what isnt possible during long raids.

But they also don’t have a target with these bombers unless it’s a full scale invasion these flying ships would be useless against a small force

alsk those turrets were really bad at hitting planes which are much much larger then people l

[Frustration]

@Bzhydack it also needs at least ninth heightening to even attempt

[+Bzhydack he/him]

3 hours ago, Valigus said:

But they also don’t have a target with these bombers unless it’s a full scale invasion these flying ships would be useless against a small force

alsk those turrets were really bad at hitting planes which are much much larger then people l

Of course they would be used against invasion, this is the point od your Oryginal Post, right? And Invasion would end quickly under bombs, no matter how skilled generals and troops are.

And Small infiltration team... Yeah, but Small team Cannot disrupt whole planet. Rosharans need to send mainly lightwaevers or Shin. And is also language problem - and this dont exist for Scadrians.

[Valigus]

1 hour ago, Bzhydack said:

Of course they would be used against invasion, this is the point od your Oryginal Post, right? And Invasion would end quickly under bombs, no matter how skilled generals and troops are.

And Small infiltration team... Yeah, but Small team Cannot disrupt whole planet. Rosharans need to send mainly lightwaevers or Shin. And is also language problem - and this dont exist for Scadrians.

Fair, except I do think windrunners could easily eliminate them

The fact that a single kandra could do it suggests to me that a team of Lightweavers quite easily could, I also believe that edgedancer resonance may be language understanding since people can speak with lift and she can speak/ understand Alethi despite having no reason to be able to so just disguise some edgedancers.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

14 hours ago, Oltux72 said:

Right. That raises the question whether the rest of Roshar is OK with her doing that.

this could be interesting. I can imagine a scene where Dalinar tells Adolin to get his psycho wife under control and Adolin explodes and tells him that he is an expert at dealing with rebelious wives.

 

Well, someone would have to let Dalinar know what Shallan’s done first...

[Valigus]

On the one hand that sounds horrible on the other hand I desperately want this confrontation to happen.

[Elerubard]

On 1/27/2021 at 10:57 PM, StanLemon said:

I find it very unlikely that Roshar is going to attack Scadrial, at least any time soon. Roshar is too heavily divided and I find it unlikely that Taravangian is going to "win" enough to bring war to other planets in the near future. Also I think you might underestimate Scadrial's defensive potential. One of Kelsier's goals is the protection of Scadrial from Cosmere threats and he's had three centuries to plan and build defenses. Through Southern Scadrial he's effectively got access to nukes which would allow him to completely destroy Rosharan forces as they make their way towards Roshar. Radiant's wouldn't have a good source of Investiture, one (or two with Ishar's Blade) Bondsmith's able to open up a Perpendicularity aren't likely going to be enough to supply the Stormlight needs of an entire army and the Bondsmiths would be a prime target for someone as powerful as Kelsier to kill asap. If they are moving their armies through the Cognitive Realm they won't have access to any of their Shards while in the Cognitive. And finally, Scadrial just plain has better firepower than Roshar, a full Shardbearer might be able to kill dozens in minutes but Scadrial has the technology to kill hundreds if not thousands in minutes not counting the Southern bombs.

This also takes place centuries into the future so it's not likely to happen before Scadrians have ways to defend themselves

Hoid also likes Scadrial, the most he's likely to involve himself is to go against Kelsier but I find it unlikely he would wholesale go against Scadrial. In fact he would probably have disdain towards the idea of Roshar attacking Scadrial

 

The thing with the ettmetal bombs is something that shouldn’t be downplayed. The only way you get something comperable to that on Roshar is a radiant with Division or Tranformation and an ungodly amount of stormlight. You also need to think about the Scadrian airships themselves. The Fourth Bridge as of yet is still really slow by most any standard, isn’t overly maneuverable, and requires an massive apparatus that is completely unlinked to the ship itself. The Scadrian versions are faster and will work as long as you have unsealed metalminds, ettmetal, and a coinshot. 

[Valigus]

1 hour ago, Elerubard said:

The thing with the ettmetal bombs is something that shouldn’t be downplayed. The only way you get something comperable to that on Roshar is a radiant with Division or Tranformation and an ungodly amount of stormlight. You also need to think about the Scadrian airships themselves. The Fourth Bridge as of yet is still really slow by most any standard, isn’t overly maneuverable, and requires an massive apparatus that is completely unlinked to the ship itself. The Scadrian versions are faster and will work as long as you have unsealed metalminds, ettmetal, and a coinshot. 

We have seen their ships and they are still very slow and not very maneuverable, they also appear to have a lot of blind spots, a windrunner could likely disable one easily.

the ettmetal bombs are likely comparable to what a dustbringer can do based on the implications we have seen like large smoking piles of cremlings and explosions they seem to be the radiant equivalent of heavy artillery and likely could take out the shops easily and equal the power of the bombs quite possibly, they are also much more survivable then the ships in shardplate since they are more mobile and smaller targets:

[StanLemon]

42 minutes ago, Valigus said:

the ettmetal bombs are likely comparable to what a dustbringer can do based on the implications we have seen like large smoking piles of cremlings and explosions they seem to be the radiant equivalent of heavy artillery and likely could take out the shops easily and equal the power of the bombs quite possibly, they are also much more survivable then the ships in shardplate since they are more mobile and smaller targets:

The bombs are estimated as being able to destroy a city as large as Elendel. There is no way that the Dustbringers bring that kind of firepower, at least not in the numbers currently available.

Edit: after a quick look at WoK, the description of what the Dustbringers did is nowhere near massive destruction. More like they set the ground on fire. Kalak describes smoke coming from patches of growth and burning corpses with the occasional smoldering rock. That doesn't compare to a city destroying bomb at all

Edited February 2, 2021 by StanLemon

[Bigmikey357 he/him]

If Roshar aimed to become the rulers of the entire Cosmere then taking out Scadrial right now as a preemptive strike would be a great idea. But of course none of this matters if they can't get there. And let's be clear,  Scadrial isn't going to be as vulnerable as they are right now for long. But I don't believe most of the advantages Roshar possesses in terms of strength of magic and military experience would be relevant for this invasion.  The main reason to throw a large army at a place is to provide an occupation force once you smash it. But if you're Roshar why would you want to? They have nothing you want or need. Their tech is easily transported,  any natural resources they have can be made, the concept of mass production can be stolen. Their people are short, kinda strong from living in higher gravity, but generally unhealthy and, from a Rosharan perspective,  plague-ridden. So the mission isn't going to be conquer and occupy, it instead should be destabilize and sabotage. Send in Lightweaving troops and do your damndest to keep the locals ignorant of your mission until it's too late. They don't have local Shard support either; Harmony is dealing with something. 

Honestly though,  I  think Scadrial should be the one doing the invading, and I think they could execute the Rosharan plan I outlined above much better. Keep those powerful warmongering rubes occupied with their own planet,  blockade them. Of course the god of Hatred might object. 

[StanLemon]

14 minutes ago, Bigmikey357 said:

Honestly though,  I  think Scadrial should be the one doing the invading, and I think they could execute the Rosharan plan I outlined above much better. Keep those powerful warmongering rubes occupied with their own planet,  blockade them. Of course the god of Hatred might object. 

You're probably right. Of all the worlds Scadrial is the most likely to become galactic conquerors. Their magic is far and away the least bounded of all the systems we've seen and they have organizations like the Set who would push conquest and Ghostbloods who would are already meddling in other world's affairs. 

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

4 hours ago, Bigmikey357 said:

If Roshar aimed to become the rulers of the entire Cosmere then taking out Scadrial right now as a preemptive strike would be a great idea. But of course none of this matters if they can't get there. And let's be clear,  Scadrial isn't going to be as vulnerable as they are right now for long. But I don't believe most of the advantages Roshar possesses in terms of strength of magic and military experience would be relevant for this invasion.  The main reason to throw a large army at a place is to provide an occupation force once you smash it. But if you're Roshar why would you want to? They have nothing you want or need. Their tech is easily transported,  any natural resources they have can be made, the concept of mass production can be stolen. Their people are short, kinda strong from living in higher gravity, but generally unhealthy and, from a Rosharan perspective,  plague-ridden. So the mission isn't going to be conquer and occupy, it instead should be destabilize and sabotage. Send in Lightweaving troops and do your damndest to keep the locals ignorant of your mission until it's too late. They don't have local Shard support either; Harmony is dealing with something. 

Honestly though,  I  think Scadrial should be the one doing the invading, and I think they could execute the Rosharan plan I outlined above much better. Keep those powerful warmongering rubes occupied with their own planet,  blockade them. Of course the god of Hatred might object. 

Considering Scadrial could just drop a handful of people with the flu on Roshar and kill off a good chunk of the planet... yeah, Scadrial wouldn’t even have to invade. Just sit back and watch, then come in as heroes to distribute anti-viral meds and vaccines.

[Frustration]

29 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Considering Scadrial could just drop a handful of people with the flu on Roshar and kill off a good chunk of the planet... yeah, Scadrial wouldn’t even have to invade. Just sit back and watch, then come in as heroes to distribute anti-viral meds and vaccines.

Roshar has very advanced sanitation and regrowth, they won't go down that easily

[StanLemon]

31 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Roshar has very advanced sanitation and regrowth, they won't go down that easily

Just want to point out that a dozen Radiants with Regrowth aren't going to be enough to sustain the medical needs of an entire army

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

1 hour ago, Frustration said:

Roshar has very advanced sanitation and regrowth, they won't go down that easily

Also, gold healing is less than effective against viruses. Regrowth likely is too.

[Bigmikey357 he/him]

Well Roshar is developing vaccine tech right now. I think they could survive germ warfare. It would hurt them no doubt but not enough to cripple on its own.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

1 hour ago, Bigmikey357 said:

Well Roshar is developing vaccine tech right now. I think they could survive germ warfare. It would hurt them no doubt but not enough to cripple on its own.

Depends on the virus. And it depends on how quickly they can develop a vaccine. Smallpox would be devastating, especially since the easiest vaccine wouldn’t be available on Roshar. Cows aren’t common and cowpox doesn’t seem to exist. 

[Kyn]

The general idea of other methods than outright war being used if one world were going to attack another makes more sense than invading.

But biological warfare isn’t some easily-controlled weapon that a sane and knowledgeable organization would intentionally employ against a place they intended to come into contact with in the near future (while the organism is still present), let alone inhabit. It tends to be more suitable for clearing out or culling a population (or particular individuals).

Even simpler biological weapons are unpredictable. They have a tendency to mutate and spread, and moreso when introduced to very distinct environments/populations from where they’ve previously developed but where they take root.

After all, an ordinary, common stomach bug (repeatedly and independently) became The Plague.

6 hours ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Considering Scadrial could just drop a handful of people with the flu on Roshar and kill off a good chunk of the planet... yeah, Scadrial wouldn’t even have to invade. Just sit back and watch, then come in as heroes to distribute anti-viral meds and vaccines.

I wish we had reason to think nobody would be full enough of themselves to risk going to a place they’d just seeded with a biological weapon in order to play hero / take advantage.

Spoiler

Frankly, whether realism or narrative were the aim, any nation/world employing this method against an entire world in the Cosmere (especially with a sufficiently-deadly virus) is likely to find itself facing instant karma eventually. As they arrive to save the natives from a virus that devastated them, the sheer amount of population the virus went through and the mutation that enabled would finally lead one to turn around and do far worse to the people who originally unleashed it.

 

2 hours ago, Bigmikey357 said:

Well Roshar is developing vaccine tech right now. I think they could survive germ warfare. It would hurt them no doubt but not enough to cripple on its own.

We’ve had “vaccine tech,” including very advanced antiviral and bacterial options for prevention and treatment, for a long time, and biological warfare is still utterly terrifying.

Spoiler

 

(it doesn’t help that we can design viruses and bacteria). Plus, vaccines are only effective in certain cases, and they take time to develop and distribute – they are not some panacea.

Besides, Roshar having a limited number of methods for analyzing, creating, and producing vaccines also limits the cases in which they could prevent pandemic.

Their best bet might be if Radiants could do chemical and biological analysis, because effectively being capable of magically creating vaccine formulas that Soulcasters could then manufacture would be a game-changer. Then, a situation like smallpox wouldn’t be so much of a problem, when they could derive a vaccine from the resistant infected. But there’s been no evidence for anything like that.

 

 

5 hours ago, StanLemon said:

Just want to point out that a dozen Radiants with Regrowth aren't going to be enough to sustain the medical needs of an entire army

Speculating on the likely-impossible when it comes to Roshar’s potential medical capabilities:

Spoiler

 

If some Radiant abilities applied creatively (Truthwatchers? – we genuinely don’t know what they do with their Illumination) could permit for medical analysis and not just treatment, Roshar could do a lot medically.

Such as using Growth for genetic modification (of viruses or otherwise, though likely not of creatures with souls/minds) if it isn’t limited to plants.

Or if  Regrowth in higher levels of the Orders permits for mass-restoration or induces area effects. I’ve seen no hint at anything like this, though.

Slightly more plausibly, combining other Radiant abilities for the purpose of healing might be a good supplement for healing abilities.

Even seemingly irrelevant abilities like Full Lashings could save lives by sealing wounds, or Division could destroy cancers (or potentially invading viruses, if they can target that precisely).

For more healing-relevant abilities, look at Soulcasting. It can already create blood, which means transfusions, even of “clean” or uninfected blood (like when Jasnah cleaned the poison out of Shallan’s blood). Adding more complex creation abilities could let Soulcasting produce the medications and other substances to deal with far more than a traditional production line could manage. Medication, protein scaffolding for wound healing/ organ replacement when Regrowth isn’t available, and other things we could only manage with advanced techniques like 3D printing.

While being actively at war tends to interfere with development of many medical innovations, stuff related to wound treatment often advances in wartime.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Kyn

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

6 minutes ago, Kyn said:

The general idea of other methods than outright war being used if one world were going to attack another makes more sense than invading.

But biological warfare isn’t some easily-controlled weapon that a sane and knowledgeable organization would intentionally employ against a place they intended to come into contact with in the near future (while the organism is still present), let alone inhabit. It tends to be more suitable for clearing out or culling a population (or particular individuals).

Even simpler biological weapons are unpredictable. They have a tendency to mutate and spread, and moreso when introduced to very distinct environments/populations from where they’ve previously developed but where they take root.

After all, an ordinary, common stomach bug (repeatedly and independently) became The Plague.

I wish we had reason to think nobody would be full enough of themselves to risk going to a place they’d just seeded with a biological weapon in order to play hero / take advantage.

  Hide contents

Frankly, whether realism or narrative were the aim, any nation/world employing this method against an entire world in the Cosmere (especially with a sufficiently-deadly virus) is likely to find itself facing instant karma eventually. As they arrive to save the natives from a virus that devastated them, the sheer amount of population the virus went through and the mutation that enabled would finally lead one to turn around and do far worse to the people who originally unleashed it.

 

We’ve had “vaccine tech,” including very advanced antiviral and bacterial options for prevention and treatment, for a long time, and biological warfare is still utterly terrifying.

  Hide contents

 

(it doesn’t help that we can design viruses and bacteria). Plus, vaccines are only effective in certain cases, and they take time to develop and distribute – they are not some panacea.

Besides, Roshar having a limited number of methods for analyzing, creating, and producing vaccines also limits the cases in which they could prevent pandemic.

Their best bet might be if Radiants could do chemical and biological analysis, because effectively being capable of magically creating vaccine formulas that Soulcasters could then manufacture would be a game-changer. Then, a situation like smallpox wouldn’t be so much of a problem, when they could derive a vaccine from the resistant infected. But there’s been no evidence for anything like that.

 

 

Speculating on the likely-impossible when it comes to Roshar’s potential medical capabilities:

  Hide contents

 

If some Radiant abilities applied creatively (Truthwatchers? – we genuinely don’t know what they do with their Illumination) could permit for medical analysis and not just treatment, Roshar could do a lot medically.

Such as using Growth for genetic modification (of viruses or otherwise, though likely not of creatures with souls/minds) if it isn’t limited to plants.

Or if  Regrowth in higher levels of the Orders permits for mass-restoration or induces area effects. I’ve seen no hint at anything like this, though.

Slightly more plausibly, combining other Radiant abilities for the purpose of healing might be a good supplement for healing abilities.

Even seemingly irrelevant abilities like Full Lashings could save lives by sealing wounds, or Division could destroy cancers (or potentially invading viruses, if they can target that precisely).

For more healing-relevant abilities, look at Soulcasting. It can already create blood, which means transfusions, even of “clean” or uninfected blood (like when Jasnah cleaned the poison out of Shallan’s blood). Adding more complex creation abilities could let Soulcasting produce the medications and other substances to deal with far more than a traditional production line could manage. Medication, protein scaffolding for wound healing/ organ replacement when Regrowth isn’t available, and other things we could only manage with advanced techniques like 3D printing.

While being actively at war tends to interfere with development of many medical innovations, stuff related to wound treatment often advances in wartime.

That’s the reason I suggested Smallpox. If Scadrial is anything like our world -which it is, then that virus is very stable and has an easily accessible vaccine - just one that doesn’t exist on Roshar. There were exactly four variants over centuries of pandemics. There’s a reason Smallpox got eradicated so well once we figured out the vaccine. It no longer exists outside of laboratories for a reason.

And they wouldn’t make it look intentional; they’d probably do a Demoux situation, except that this accident would be on purpose. But good luck proving that, especially if a non-Scadrian introduces it. And Scadrial can claim that they ran to help as soon as they learned that one of their dangerous viruses made it to a world with little to no viral infections.

There are several other dangerous viruses that can be easily vaccinated or treated that don’t mutate much. Those would be fairly ‘safe’ to introduce. You’ll want to avoid cold-type viruses (corona viruses are among those), like the one Demoux introduced. Those mutate fairly quickly.

[Frustration]

20 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

That’s the reason I suggested Smallpox. If Scadrial is anything like our world -which it is, then that virus is very stable and has an easily accessible vaccine - just one that doesn’t exist on Roshar. There were exactly four variants over centuries of pandemics. There’s a reason Smallpox got eradicated so well once we figured out the vaccine. It no longer exists outside of laboratories for a reason.

And they wouldn’t make it look intentional; they’d probably do a Demoux situation, except that this accident would be on purpose. But good luck proving that, especially if a non-Scadrian introduces it. And Scadrial can claim that they ran to help as soon as they learned that one of their dangerous viruses made it to a world with little to no viral infections.

There are several other dangerous viruses that can be easily vaccinated or treated that don’t mutate much. Those would be fairly ‘safe’ to introduce. You’ll want to avoid cold-type viruses (corona viruses are among those), like the one Demoux introduced. Those mutate fairly quickly.

Wait, Demoux brought a disease in?

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

6 minutes ago, Frustration said:

Wait, Demoux brought a disease in?

Yes, the Scadrian common cold. Aka. The Purelake plague.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Kingsdaughter613