Why roshar should attack Scadrial soon and therefore they probably will

[StanLemon]

1 minute ago, Valigus said:

I think if he can steal a bond that is hard coded into your soul he can steal one coded into your dna, in fact I bet a bond in your dnd would be far easier to manipulate. A fullborn coudl beat a bondsmith in a fight yea but that doesn’t make them stronger a fullborn alone is an unstoppable fighter but they can’t do much else a bondsmith can bond gods essentially create entire magic systems. They are the single most overpowered thing in the cosmere that isn’t a shard. It’s also been repeatedly hinted at that we know nothing about what bondsmith are capable of.

I agree they are powerful but to there are almost certainly limits that we are not aware of. For starters, it's entirely possible that the biggest things that have been hinted at require the use of a Dawnshard. We know they had access to at least one when Ashyn was destroyed.

Also the sDNA is litterally a part of the soul. Not just a Bond to it like the Nahel Bond is. 

[StanLemon]

2 minutes ago, Valigus said:

Soul casters are basically the single most overpowered rosharan advantage and if they can get radiants offworld they can get plate and blade off world too.

Spren don't manifest as Shards in the Cognitive. 

2 minutes ago, Valigus said:

roshar actually more then any other world can invade because of soulcatsrs they have an easy constant supply of food and resources and need to supply lines.

Yes in the north but in the south they almsot certainly still cannot match rosharan caliber generals or troops especially considering they have zero cold resistance for some reason.

And all Rosharan troops would have to deal with higher gravity that they wouldn't be familiar with. Plus the entirety of Rosharan magical advantage off world is dependent on one single individual who would probably be harder than any other Radiant to get offworld in the first place as the Stormfather would almost certainly be harder to leave than common spren. And even if you add Ishar, well Kelsier has the resources and knowledge to deal with Heralds as evidence in RoW

2 minutes ago, Valigus said:

Even if the ghost blood bloods bring generals it is very unlikely they would be of the same caliber as rosharans who have been fighting war for 700 years and have advanced military tactics, the Alethi especially are the most militarily advanced country we have seen in the cosmere and I doubt anyone would be able to match their generals.

Maybe, but Scadrial can bring weapons that will make Rosharan military tactics obsolete, WW1 being a prime example 

[Valigus]

2 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

I agree they are powerful but to there are almost certainly limits that we are not aware of. For starters, it's entirely possible that the biggest things that have been hinted at require the use of a Dawnshard. We know they had access to at least one when Ashyn was destroyed.

Also the sDNA is litterally a part of the soul. Not just a Bond to it like the Nahel Bond is. 

Well from what we have been told there were limits but on honors death those limits disappeared, I think it wouldn’t make sense that honor would limit bondsmiths if a danwshard was needed to destroy ashyn in fact i bet what a dawn shard does is make someone a bondsmith it would explain how ishar had some kind of bondsmith powers on ashyn and why honor limited them, maybe a dawn shard doesn’t boost bondmsithing(though doubling up the power may do that) so much as it grants bondsmithing. (Also war would probably the single most powerful shard in my opinion with odium seeming to be in his essence about the destruction of bonds while honor is about creating them giving them a lot of power over bonds.)

Did not know that, but then it shouldn’t be any harder to steal still should be easier since there isn’t a sentient being tied to the power that can reject you like a spren.

The nahel bond is also a part of the soul, scar tissue is no less part of your body is it?

 

[Valigus]

6 minutes ago, StanLemon said:

Spren don't manifest as Shards in the Cognitive. 

And all Rosharan troops would have to deal with higher gravity that they wouldn't be familiar with. Plus the entirety of Rosharan magical advantage off world is dependent on one single individual who would probably be harder than any other Radiant to get offworld in the first place as the Stormfather would almost certainly be harder to leave than common spren. And even if you add Ishar, well Kelsier has the resources and knowledge to deal with Heralds as evidence in RoW

Maybe, but Scadrial can bring weapons that will make Rosharan military tactics obsolete, WW1 being a prime example 

The higher gravity would be difficult but not that difficult .3 gs higher is bearable and soemthing that could be worked with especially with proper synergy training before the invasion, windrunners could help simulate this if they wanted. I bet navani could enable the sibling to increase the gravity in parts of the tower or decrease it which could allow for 0 g space combat training rooms or high gravity strength training rooms.

that isn’t the entirety of their advantage at all radiants are so much stronger then anything Scadrial had to offer, other than a single fullborn a single full born cannot win a war. Radiants outclass misting, ferrings, twin born, compunders, feruchamists and msitborn the last two of which don’t exist anymore. A fullborn is the only magical advantage they have in every other match up Scadrial is outclassed.

Assuming roshar doesn’t get them too, like roshar could show up go to a gun shop but a bunch of guns go home figure out who they work and come back just as well equipped. Or maybe idk odium sets up the set to help do this hmm.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

5 minutes ago, Valigus said:

Soul casters are basically the single most overpowered rosharan advantage and if they can get radiants offworld they can get plate and blade off world too.

roshar actually more then any other world can invade because of soulcatsrs they have an easy constant supply of food and resources and need to supply lines. 

Yes in the north but in the south they almsot certainly still cannot match rosharan caliber generals or troops especially considering they have zero cold resistance for some reason.

Even if the ghost blood bloods bring generals it is very unlikely they would be of the same caliber as rosharans who have been fighting war for 700 years and have advanced military tactics, the Alethi especially are the most militarily advanced country we have seen in the cosmere and I doubt anyone would be able to match their generals.

Which is why none of the Rosharan generals are surviving long enough to get to Scadrial. The Ghostbloods will be causing political tension, assassinating people left and right, poisoning entire battalions, etc. They’ll be harrying the Rosharan forces constantly while encouraging desertion. Not to mention murdering Spren and wiping/shattering gemstones. 

Scadrians and Ghostbloods are assassins and guerillas. The long trek through Shadesmar isn’t a place for generals - it’s a place for rebel guerillas. The Scadrians and Ghostbloods will make the Radiants’ lives HELL all the way from Roshar to Scadrial.

And you still can’t get the Bondsmiths off Roshar. Their Spren need to stay on the planet to maintain it. Only Ishar’s blade and, possibly, the Sibling could leave.

Oh, and let’s not forget that there is no easy current method for the Rosharans to kill Kelsier. Anti-Preservation will do it, but Preservation no longer exists and the Rosharans don’t know the tone. The GBs DO know the anti-Honor and anti-Odium tones though.

The Nahel bond and, really, all Connection bonds are external things spliced on to the soul. The bond to Preservation is intrinsic in all Scadrians. Removing it wouldn’t remove their allomancy - it would remove their SAPIENCE. That’s a bit more than what we’ve seen Bondsmiths do, though I agree that they could.

Ishar’s blade could probably bind Kelsier. But if Kelsier kills the person with the blade first - and he can move faster than the Bondsmith - then Kelsier has the Bondsmith blade. Which means the LAST thing any Rosharan with any sense wants is allowing ANY of the Honorblades anywhere near someone who has a 90% chance of stealing it.

[Valigus]

5 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Which is why none of the Rosharan generals are surviving long enough to get to Scadrial. The Ghostbloods will be causing political tension, assassinating people left and right, poisoning entire battalions, etc. They’ll be harrying the Rosharan forces constantly while encouraging desertion. Not to mention murdering Spren and wiping/shattering gemstones. 

Scadrians and Ghostbloods are assassins and guerillas. The long trek through Shadesmar isn’t a place for generals - it’s a place for rebel guerillas. The Scadrians and Ghostbloods will make the Radiants’ lives HELL all the way from Roshar to Scadrial.

And you still can’t get the Bondsmiths off Roshar. Their Spren need to stay on the planet to maintain it. Only Ishar’s blade and, possibly, the Sibling could leave.

Oh, and let’s not forget that there is no easy current method for the Rosharans to kill Kelsier. Anti-Preservation will do it, but Preservation no longer exists and the Rosharans don’t know the tone. The GBs DO know the anti-Honor and anti-Odium tones though.

The Nahel bond and, really, all Connection bonds are external things spliced on to the soul. The bond to Preservation is intrinsic in all Scadrians. Removing it wouldn’t remove their allomancy - it would remove their SAPIENCE. That’s a bit more than what we’ve seen Bondsmiths do, though I agree that they could.

Ishar’s blade could probably bind Kelsier. But if Kelsier kills the person with the blade first - and he can move faster than the Bondsmith - then Kelsier has the Bondsmith blade. Which means the LAST thing any Rosharan with any sense wants is allowing ANY of the Honorblades anywhere near someone who has a 90% chance of stealing it.

I think you are significantly over estimating the ghost bloods their reach has not been shown to extend anywhere near that far additional poisoning an entire battalion isn’t really feasible discretely and many generals and military leaders have started becoming radiants or have radiant guards and considering how much marine wanted shallan and a spren to bond they don’t aren’t o have any or anything taht can reasonably take on a radiant.

also when did they get acess to anti- tones? As far as we know the high ranking fused, navani and that’s about it know about them, why would the ghost bloods both groups would want to keep this a well guarded secret and they have no lost their inside woman into the radiant inner circle. Who is also entirely devoted to killing any ghost bloods she sees and I think they would have trouble getting past her.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

2 minutes ago, Valigus said:

I think you are significantly over estimating the ghost bloods their reach has not been shown to extend anywhere near that far additional poisoning an entire battalion isn’t really feasible discretely and many generals and military leaders have started becoming radiants or have radiant guards and considering how much marine wanted shallan and a spren to bond they don’t aren’t o have any or anything taht can reasonably take on a radiant.

also when did they get acess to anti- tones? As far as we know the high ranking fused, navani and that’s about it know about them, why would the ghost bloods both groups would want to keep this a well guarded secret and they have no lost their inside woman into the radiant inner circle. Who is also entirely devoted to killing any ghost bloods she sees and I think they would have trouble getting past her.

Because Mraize was in the tower when those tones were invented AND the GBs has their eyes on Gavilar. They know. Spying is what they do, and Shallan is not the only one near Dalinar.

We don’t know their reach, but all indications are that it is far more extensive than we’ve seen.

And yes, Shallan just declared war on an entire planet. Great going there girl! Why not finish ONE war before starting another? Declaring war on Scadrial is a great way to push them into making a bargain with Odium - which they currently have no wish to do.

Oh, but wait! Shallan doesn’t even realize she declared war on a foreign planet. How... foolish of her... Here’s a suggestion: make sure you know who you’re declaring war on before doing it!

[Valigus]

2 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Because Mraize was in the tower when those tones were invented AND the GBs has their eyes on Gavilar. They know. Spying is what they do, and Shallan is not the only one near Dalinar.

We don’t know their reach, but all indications are that it is far more extensive than we’ve seen.

And yes, Shallan just declared war on an entire planet. Great going there girl! Why not finish ONE war before starting another? Declaring war on Scadrial is a great way to push them into making a bargain with Odium - which they currently have no wish to do.

Oh, but wait! Shallan doesn’t even realize she declared war on a foreign planet. How... foolish of her... Here’s a suggestion: make sure you know who you’re declaring war on before doing it!

I really do think you overestimate their reach nothing has indicated they had any way to observe navani while she was completely isolated, they also clearly did not know a lot about faculae and clearly lacked a lot of Information about his goings on, and considering that they had to send shallan to do things they were clearly unable to do otherwise their operatives cannot be that capable. Shallan and others will most likely be more than capable of dealing with a few assassins none of which cancliekym compete with a radiant which most of the high ranking people we have seen are.

kelsier is not the entire planet to suggest she did that doesn’t take into account what the ghost bloods are that would be like the cia declaring a covert war with the Russian mob and saying that they just declared war on Russia.

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

1 minute ago, Valigus said:

I really do think you overestimate their reach nothing has indicated they had any way to observe navani while she was completely isolated, they also clearly did not know a lot about faculae and clearly lacked a lot of Information about his goings on, and considering that they had to send shallan to do things they were clearly unable to do otherwise their operatives cannot be that capable. Shallan and others will most likely be more than capable of dealing with a few assassins none of which cancliekym compete with a radiant which most of the high ranking people we have seen are.

kelsier is not the entire planet to suggest she did that doesn’t take into account what the ghost bloods are that would be like the cia declaring a covert war with the Russian mob and saying that they just declared war on Russia.

No, but to declare war on a king is to declare war on his nation. Kelsier is king of South Scadrial. To declare war on a god is to declare war on his people. Kelsier is the primary deity of the North. 

So Shallan, by declaring war on Thaidakar, ALSO declared war on ALL of his subjects and his followers. Or: The Ghostbloods, South Scadrial and all the Survivorists. So, like, 90% of the planet. If you’re at war with 90% of a planet you are at war with that planet.

It would be more accurate to say the 50’s CIA declared war on a mob boss who was actually Jesus. Because that’s essentially what she did.

[Valigus]

8 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

No, but to declare war on a king is to declare war on his nation. Kelsier is king of South Scadrial. To declare war on a god is to declare war on his people. Kelsier is the primary deity of the North. 

So Shallan, by declaring war on Thaidakar, ALSO declared war on ALL of his subjects and his followers. Or: The Ghostbloods, South Scadrial and all the Survivorists. So, like, 90% of the planet. If you’re at war with 90% of a planet you are at war with that planet.

It would be more accurate to say the 50’s CIA declared war on a mob boss who was actually Jesus. Because that’s essentially what she did.

That’s fair but wether or not they would accept that he is who he valise to be is debatable for example if Jesus showed up would every Christian just now down to him because he claimed to be Jesus no probably not. In fact many would probably ignore him and depending on the time Perrier like in the Middle Ages would probably declare him a heratic and want him killed.

that also still doesn’t make you at war with those governments because all those people likely won’t just take up arms and help.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

19 minutes ago, Valigus said:

That’s fair but wether or not they would accept that he is who he valise to be is debatable for example if Jesus showed up would every Christian just now down to him because he claimed to be Jesus no probably not. In fact many would probably ignore him and depending on the time Perrier like in the Middle Ages would probably declare him a heratic and want him killed.

that also still doesn’t make you at war with those governments because all those people likely won’t just take up arms and help.

Kelsier could probably prove himself fairly easily and raise an army.

He intended to return to the South, so he likely left some ways of proving who he is. And he likely has retained connections to the upper ranks of priests who could vouch for him. It’s only been 300 years, after all and Kell has always been persuasive.

Marasi never questioned Marsh’s identity, and Wax never considered that the person in the metalmind was only pretending to be the Survivor, which are fairly good indicators for how his claim would be accepted. Assuming he doesn’t have other pieces in place for when he chooses to return openly, which would be a really, really bad assumption.

[Valigus]

19 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Kelsier could probably prove himself fairly easily and raise an army.

He intended to return to the South, so he likely left some ways of proving who he is. And he likely has retained connections to the upper ranks of priests who could vouch for him. It’s only been 300 years, after all and Kell has always been persuasive.

Marasi never questioned Marsh’s identity, and Wax never considered that the person in the metalmind was only pretending to be the Survivor, which are fairly good indicators for how his claim would be accepted. Assuming he doesn’t have other pieces in place for when he chooses to return openly, which would be a really, really bad assumption.

That is true, but that doesn’t mean the government’s which are the important part will up and follow

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

36 minutes ago, Valigus said:

That is true, but that doesn’t mean the government’s which are the important part will up and follow

Kelsier doesn’t care much for governments. It’s the people he’ll call on - and by and large they’ll answer. Just look at how much power people using his name can gather! That’s NOTHING compared to the man himself. Governments will play along to avoid being overthrown.

And that’s the North. Kelsier is the government in the South; it’s his throne to reclaim.

[Valigus]

6 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Kelsier doesn’t care much for governments. It’s the people he’ll call on - and by and large they’ll answer. Just look at how much power people using his name can gather! That’s NOTHING compared to the man himself. Governments will play along to avoid being overthrown.

And that’s the North. Kelsier is the government in the South; it’s his throne to reclaim.

Yeah but how effective will an army of random people be against the best trained most experience army in the cosmere. With the strongest magic system we know of.

I also doubt their resolve will allow them to that, people run in battle after being trained and being hardened soldiers random people will break easily when faced with trained lethal soldiers.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

12 minutes ago, Valigus said:

Yeah but how effective will an army of random people be against the best trained most experience army in the cosmere. With the strongest magic system we know of.

I also doubt their resolve will allow them to that, people run in battle after being trained and being hardened soldiers random people will break easily when faced with trained lethal soldiers.

He won’t use the North as an army though. He’ll use them for supply and industry - including open metalmind supply lines. Certain Alomancer he’ll have trained as spies, assassins and saboteurs.

The South, which seemingly has fought wars, will provide the major military force.

[ScadrianTank he/him]

I don't see any chance for interplanetary warfare happening anywhere in the cosmere before era 4 for several reasons. 

1. No Shardworld has anything of enough value to make a planetary invasion preferable to stable trade.
2. If you decide to launch such an invasion, you have to get entire armies through the Cognitive realm. And from what we've seen of Rosharan and Scadrian subastrals, that would mean sailing or flying armies because of wast ocean-like areas.
3. Even if you got your army to the enemy Perpendicularity, it's your single option of attack. A small, extremely defensible bottleneck that allows only a few dozen people to go through it at a time simply because of its size.
4. Then, if you somehow managed to win a war in those conditions, how are you going to maintain your position? You would have to make sure that an entire planet's worth of people and land won't have the manpower and manufacturing capabilities to mount a counter-attack or at least a resistance. The only option with the current level of magical and technological development would be to kill a planet, Ashyn style, which would presumably make an entire invasion a waste.
5. People above stated already that it would also be a logistical nightmare due to the difficulty of supply.  Even in the case of Roshar, which has soulcasters, it would still be difficult because they wouldn't have a regularly renewable source of Stormlight to soulcast, Surgebind, or power fabrials, assuming they would even work in the Cognitive realm.
6. Also, in the case of Scadrial, they have a Shard on their side. I doubt that Harmony is so powerless or bound by his Intent of neutrality that he wouldn't protect his own people from such danger.

[Valigus]

13 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

He won’t use the North as an army though. He’ll use them for supply and industry - including open metalmind supply lines. Certain Alomancer he’ll have trained as spies, assassins and saboteurs.

The South, which seemingly has fought wars, will provide the major military force.

I think alomancers will be of limited military application, tineyes are of little use , thugs are nice but aren’t numerous enough to use really, lurches and coin shots are helpful but also not very numerous, the time metals don’t help much, the only truly helpful metals in a battle are rioting and soothing in my opinion the morale boost is huge the others in open battle are far below radiants in usefulness. 
 

the south may have fought wars but still not likely as good at it as those on roshar and their airships will be very very vulnerable to windrunners.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

3 minutes ago, Valigus said:

I think alomancers will be of limited military application, tineyes are of little use , thugs are nice but aren’t numerous enough to use really, lurches and coin shots are helpful but also not very numerous, the time metals don’t help much, the only truly helpful metals in a battle are rioting and soothing in my opinion the morale boost is huge the others in open battle are far below radiants in usefulness.

Again: Scadrial doesn’t do open battle. Ever, if they can help it.

Tin eyes are amazing spies. Thugs aren’t just strong; they’re fast and dexterous: great for infiltration. Coinshots and lurchers are saboteurs.

The point isn’t too win; the point is to make winning so costly Roshar gives up and goes home.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Kingsdaughter613

[Valigus]

Quote

8 minutes ago, ScadrianTank said:

I don't see any chance for interplanetary warfare happening anywhere in the cosmere before era 4 for several reasons. 

1. No Shardworld has anything of enough value to make a planetary invasion preferable to stable trade.
2. If you decide to launch such an invasion, you have to get entire armies through the Cognitive realm. And from what we've seen of Rosharan and Scadrian subastrals, that would mean sailing or flying armies because of wast ocean-like areas.
3. Even if you got your army to the enemy Perpendicularity, it's your single option of attack. A small, extremely defensible bottleneck that allows only a few dozen people to go through it at a time simply because of its size.
4. Then, if you somehow managed to win a war in those conditions, how are you going to maintain your position? You would have to make sure that an entire planet's worth of people and land won't have the manpower and manufacturing capabilities to mount a counter-attack or at least a resistance. The only option with the current level of magical and technological development would be to kill a planet, Ashyn style, which would presumably make an entire invasion a waste.
5. People above stated already that it would also be a logistical nightmare due to the difficulty of supply.  Even in the case of Roshar, which has soulcasters, it would still be difficult because they wouldn't have a regularly renewable source of Stormlight to soulcast, Surgebind, or power fabrials, assuming they would even work in the Cognitive realm.
6. Also, in the case of Scadrial, they have a Shard on their side. I doubt that Harmony is so powerless or bound by his Intent of neutrality that he wouldn't protect his own people from such danger.

Actually point 3 doesn’t matter at all since the rosharans have bondsmiths which could allow them to just open a perpendicularity if they get them offworld.

the point is to just knock them out of the fight if odium wants to attack he can promptly do so now get guns for roshar knock Scadrial out for a long time and move on to the rest of his plan.

bondsmitsh if we can get them off world would be a steady source of light, tower light and life light could likely use soulcasters. 
 

sharda have trouble directly interfering and a double shard is at a severe disadvantage against 3 single shards since he is limited by intent interference and they are not.

[Valigus]

14 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Again: Scadrial doesn’t do open battle. Ever, if they can help it.

Tin eyes are amazing spies. Thugs aren’t just strong; they’re fast and dexterous: great for infiltration. Coinshots and lurchers are saboteurs.

The point isn’t too win; the point is to make winning so costly Roshar gives up and goes home.

They don’t have any reps military tactics they wouldn’t have the first clue how to accomplish half of this, tin eyes aren’t really that good of spies at least not compared to lightweavers which are almsot as good as kandra in terms of infiltration. Plus if the sky breakers are with everyone else the fact that they act as lie detectors is pretty good at finding spies.

being fast and dexterous doesn’t actually help with infiltration, effective infiltration is very rarely ever about sneaking into an enemy base and finding soemthing as much as it is disguise and impersonation, thugs would not help infiltration in fact the kind of infiltration like wax and the group did in the bands of mourning will be nearly impossible when invisible spren  are zipping around reporting to their radiant and getting out will be nearly impossible when one radiant can kill your entire team without breaking a sweat.

it will also be nearly impossible to put spies in when said spies are going to have greatly different features and dimensions to those of people on roshar they will be easily noticed unlike Lightweavers.

but how do you do that? It’s significantly easier for roshar to hurt Scadrial then Scadrial to hurt roshar for example imagine this they get dalinar out there with maybe 500 troops and 50 radiants dalinar can freely pop in and out of the cognitive realm where he pleases refill stormlight and cause havoc, supplies no problem just being anyone who can soulcast or an actual soul caster send some people back with guns so navani can figure them out or make Fabriel versions send spies into the highest level of government assassinate literally anyone easily, light wave yourself into their spouse and boom shardblade win the back no recovering from that, shallan could probably kill the entire leadership of Scadrial over the course of a year with little effort.

Sending in just shallan or just bridge 4 to do guerilla work with either enough stormlight or gemstones could destabilize one of the two cultures on the planet easily bring dalinar and soulcasters and they have no chance to stop or find you.

If Scadrial can avoid an open war so can roshar and you know what roshar can do that better roshar can also fight an open war better. In pretty much every single possible metric roshar wins except they don’t have guns, they don’t even need to really invade they just need to send someone to rob a gun shop and suddenly they outclass Scadrial in every possible aspect except for the single fullborn Scadrial has, which isn’t a problem because nightblood and a million other potential kill options.

mom snd credit where credit is due the kandra are better then lightsabers at pure infiltration but most won’t kill humans, and they can’t fake having radiant powers and radiants can likely kill them but they can’t kill radiants so I think in terms of net usefulness Lightweavers win out.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Kingsdaughter613 she/her]

16 minutes ago, Valigus said:

They don’t have any reps military tactics they wouldn’t have the first clue how to accomplish half of this, tin eyes aren’t really that good of spies at least not compared to lightweavers which are almsot as good as kandra in terms of infiltration. Plus if the sky breakers are with everyone else the fact that they act as lie detectors is pretty good at finding spies.

being fast and dexterous doesn’t actually help with infiltration, effective infiltration is very rarely ever about sneaking into an enemy base and finding soemthing as much as it is disguise and impersonation, thugs would not help infiltration in fact the kind of infiltration like wax and the group did in the bands of mourning will be nearly impossible when invisible spren  are zipping around reporting to their radiant and getting out will be nearly impossible when one radiant can kill your entire team without breaking a sweat.

it will also be nearly impossible to put spies in when said spies are going to have greatly different features and dimensions to those of people on roshar they will be easily noticed unlike Lightweavers.

but how do you do that? It’s significantly easier for roshar to hurt Scadrial then Scadrial to hurt roshar for example imagine this they get dalinar out there with maybe 500 troops and 50 radiants dalinar can freely pop in and out of the cognitive realm where he pleases refill stormlight and cause havoc, supplies no problem just being anyone who can soulcast or an actual soul caster send some people back with guns so navani can figure them out or make Fabriel versions send spies into the highest level of government assassinate literally anyone easily, light wave yourself into their spouse and boom shardblade win the back no recovering from that, shallan could probably kill the entire leadership of Scadrial over the course of a year with little effort.

Dalinar isn’t leaving because the Stormfather is a necessary part of Roshar’s ecology. Navani maybe could leave.

No one is leaving quickly. It takes time to get an army together and Roshar just fought a war.

The South knows how to fight wars as indicated by the fact that they appear to be fighting one. (Deniers of masks????) North Scadrial and South Scadrial are different things. Stop conflating them.

Kelsier knows guerrilla tactics. He also knows where to find people who know these things. He can also put up giant speed bubbles giving him time to train small elite crews.

Scadrial will not be fighting an all out war. They’ll be fighting a war of attrition from day one. The idea isn’t to win; it’s to make winning too costly for Roshar. And that is 100% something Kelsier can do because that is what he’s best at. Being an annoyance.

You keep thinking in terms of battles. This isn’t going to come to that. If it does, Scadrial surrenders. No war. Straight up surrender.

And then a bazillion little rebel groups keep causing havoc while the entire population obeys Rosharan laws as begrudgingly as possible. They’re survivors. That’s what they do. They survive.

Roshar isn’t equipped for that. The Alethi? Surrender without a fight isn’t something they’d contemplate. But that’s what they’d get.

Because Scadrial is going to survive and occupying an unhappy and unwilling nation isn’t easy. It’s a HUGE resource drain in multiple ways. And small teams move faster than large armies.

Oh, and lightweavers have NOTHING on Kandra. Which Scadrial also has.

This will NEVER be an open battle. Instead it’ll be thousands of tiny skirmishes and attackers that vanish as quickly as they attack. Roshar goes for the thrust; Scadrial kills with a thousand tiny cuts.

It’s not about winning; it about surviving. And Scadrial is very, very good at that.

To put this in RL terms: Kelsier will turn this war into Vietnam.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Kingsdaughter613

[Valigus]

16 minutes ago, Kingsdaughter613 said:

Dalinar isn’t leaving because the Stormfather is a necessary part of Roshar’s ecology. Navani maybe could leave.

No one is leaving quickly. It takes time to get an army together and Roshar just fought a war.

The South knows how to fight wars as indicated by the fact that they appear to be fighting one. (Deniers of masks????) North Scadrial and South Scadrial are different things. Stop conflating them.

Kelsier knows guerrilla tactics. He also knows where to find people who know these things. He can also put up giant speed bubbles giving him time to train small elite crews.

Scadrial will not be fighting an all out war. They’ll be fighting a war of attrition from day one. The idea isn’t to win; it’s to make winning too costly for Roshar. And that is 100% something Kelsier can do because that is what he’s best at. Being an annoyance.

You keep thinking in terms of battles. This isn’t going to come to that. If it does, Scadrial surrenders. No war. Straight up surrender.

And then a bazillion little rebel groups keep causing havoc while the entire population obeys Rosharan laws as begrudgingly as possible. They’re survivors. That’s what they do. They survive.

Roshar isn’t equipped for that. The Alethi? Surrender without a fight isn’t something they’d contemplate. But that’s what they’d get.

Because Scadrial is going to survive and occupying an unhappy and unwilling nation isn’t easy. It’s a HUGE resource drain in multiple ways. And small teams move faster than large armies.

Oh, and lightweavers have NOTHING on Kandra. Which Scadrial also has.

This will NEVER be an open battle. Instead it’ll be thousands of tiny skirmishes and attackers that vanish as quickly as they attack. Roshar goes for the thrust; Scadrial kills with a thousand tiny cuts.

It’s not about winning; it about surviving. And Scadrial is very, very good at that.

They may know how to fight a war but I doubt they are as proficient as those on roshar and they lack a big magical advantage. 

roshar doesn’t need a big force just some guns, they don’t actually need to attack or destabilize the planet if they got rob a gun store that’s a big victory.

Kelsier has never been shown to be proficient with military thinking in fact quite the opposite seeing as what happened to his army and the fact that he put Hammond in charge, kelsier is good at infiltration not guerilla tactics he’s a spymaster not a general. 
 

but they really can’t because roshar doesn’t need an army to destabilize the planet all they need is shallan and her lightweavers that’s it nobody else shallan plus a ton of storm light could destabilize the whole planet.

mid they surrender then roshar wins, roshar shouldn’t try and occupy them that would be stupid but if they get the enemy to surrender and give them guns and stuff that’s a big big win.

just because the Alethi wouldn’t understand it doesn’t mean that it would be a problem.

Yeah it probably won’t be open battle but even if it is roshar wins, people need to put out this notion that because radiants prefer open battle means they can’t be good at infiltration and guerilla war. Radiants are far far better at guerilla war then ferrings or misting or even feruchamists and mistborn for the most part. They can heal, they are more common, some can fly, some can go super fast, some can blow stuff up some can just nope out and nope in whenever. So many reasons why they are better at it too.

roshar has survived 7000 years of war, wars that lasted 100s of years surviving roshar is so much better at it, they have been through apocalypse after apocalypse some with as little time between them as a year and every single time they have come out on top, Scadrial has had two apocalypses and each time they nearly all died.

also I disagree kandra are not as good as lightweavers for a few big reasons

1. shardblade- a lightweaver can kill a kandra and literally anyone else with a single blow(except a gold compounder)

2. Plate- plate is op

3. kandra don’t kill (at least mostly) and of the ones that do one just went crazy, one is tensoon so ok that is scary and the other is melaan whose infiltration skills have been shown to be lacking.

4. Lightweavers can manipulate sound which is really nice I’m sure they can use that

5. lightweavers can affect others

6. Lightweavers cannot be mind controlled 

7. they have soul casting 

And all of this for marginally worse infiltration ability a kandra can do it in about 1 day but a lightweaver can take a weak to get into character and basically get the same job done and if it’s assassination they just need to get the illusion right.

Lightweavers outclass kandra pretty much 100% overall even with marginally worse infiltration.

I also think lots of your argument is based on how your perceive these planets vs how they actually are like the idea that roshar is incapable of waging a slow war for attrition and will always go for a direct kill even when not needed.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[ScadrianTank he/him]

16 minutes ago, Valigus said:

Actually point 3 doesn’t matter at all since the rosharans have bondsmiths which could allow them to just open a perpendicularity if they get them offworld.

We have two Bondsmiths that were capable of opening a Perpendicularity: Dalinar and Ishar. You assume that you can take Honors Perpendicularity away from the planet the Shard has Invested in. That seems like a stretch to me.

In your initial post, you said that because Scadrial is weak, Rosharans should attack. Why? What does Roshar gain from that? Why not attack Nalthis instead? 

40 minutes ago, Valigus said:

the point is to just knock them out of the fight if odium wants to attack he can promptly do so now get guns for roshar knock Scadrial out for a long time and move on to the rest of his plan.

You also say that the reason for attacking Scadrial is because they have guns, and I just don't follow your logic here.  Shards have an understanding of the cosmere above any mortal, and they would have no problem describing what a firearm is to their people. You can get a single Lightweaver or Mavset-im to steal one and bring it back home to create their own. Hell, you can just buy one without any fighting.

Also, Scadrial isn't the only place in the cosmere where firearms are common. Darksiders on Taldain also have them.

Even disregarding all of that, Rosharan artifabrians were close to figuring out how repulsors work. Why would they need a gunpowder powered weapon on a planet where you have a  more efficient and easily accessible fuel - Stormlight.

[Valigus]

6 minutes ago, ScadrianTank said:

We have two Bondsmiths that were capable of opening a Perpendicularity: Dalinar and Ishar. You assume that you can take Honors Perpendicularity away from the planet the Shard has Invested in. That seems like a stretch to me.

In your initial post, you said that because Scadrial is weak, Rosharans should attack. Why? What does Roshar gain from that? Why not attack Nalthis instead? 

You also say that the reason for attacking Scadrial is because they have guns, and I just don't follow your logic here.  Shards have an understanding of the cosmere above any mortal, and they would have no problem describing what a firearm is to their people. You can get a single Lightweaver or Mavset-im to steal one and bring it back home to create their own. Hell, you can just buy one without any fighting.

Also, Scadrial isn't the only place in the cosmere where firearms are common. Darksiders on Taldain also have them.

Even disregarding all of that, Rosharan artifabrians were close to figuring out how repulsors work. Why would they need a gunpowder powered weapon on a planet where you have a  more efficient and easily accessible fuel - Stormlight.

I mean I feel like it could be possible especially if someone ascends to honor
 

That’s true I didn’t consider that, but then why hasn’t odium given fused guns? And yeah you could buy one which I think I mentioned it would be a huge win if a workshop we just showed up and bought a ton from a gun store but if odium is behind this he may as well go further and destabilize the planet whci ha few radiants and/or fused could do easily.

because Scadrial is weaker then nalthis rn and has more of a potential to be strong later.

ok didn’t know that one. 
 

that is true but I’m assuming everything is as it is rn, and rn seems like the best move to knock them out early.

in fact it’s my opinion the taravodium created the set and the red eyed kandra in bom is a Mavset-im

odium has explicitly been using roshar to train and army and I think we can safely say it worked and he has managed to train the single strongest army in the cosmere we know of, so he likely will make use of it. This seems a tempting target.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Valigus

[Frustration]

1 hour ago, ScadrianTank said:

Also, in the case of Scadrial, they have a Shard on their side. I doubt that Harmony is so powerless or bound by his Intent of neutrality that he wouldn't protect his own people from such danger.

Odium on his own could kill Sazed.

@Kingsdaughter613 the Bondsmiths can move far further from their spren then other Radiants.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Frustration