Long Game 72: The Secret of Shinovar

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10 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Why that specific pool of people, out of curiosity?

Elim!Illwei narrows down kills like so: Removing newer players, Returning players, Players that have died early recently, and Inactives. not 100% (or anywhere near that) accurate, but what I assume (of course, assuming everyone is village, which...isn't...). 

Returning Players: Alv, Fura, Stink, Eternum, 
New(er): Vasher, Jester, supreme (SfS, Quinn, Books, Connie)
Died early: Devotary, Illwei, Ventyl (Gears?)
Inactives: Turtle, Kings, Lotus

that leaves TJ, Matrim, Araris, (Gears), Experience. 

This is ignoring things like who is most village and all that though. I might have killed Books, Eternum, or Fura as well since people were reading them Village, but they fall under one of the categories I don't like to kill first. I know that not everyone goes this way, but yeah. 

10 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Why do you ask? Why do you care?

The WGG, of course :P. 

10 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Good point on vote reasoning. I've noticed multiple people only caring about vote justification when they're the one being voted, which feels hypocritical.

I also seem to remember Connie asking for reasoning in a previous game when I was voting on other people, though I may be hallucinating. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ooklil' the Wei

[Eternum he/him]

1 minute ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

Elim!Illwei narrows down kills like so: Removing newer players, Returning players, Players that have died early recently, and Inactives. not 100% (or anywhere near that) accurate, but what I assume. 

Returning Players: Alv, Fura, Stink, Eternum, 
New(er): Vasher, Jester, supreme (SfS, Quinn, Books, Connie)
Died early: Devotary, Illwei, Ventyl (Gears?)
Inactives: Turtle, Kings, Lotus

that leaves TJ, Matrim, Araris, (Gears), Experience. 

This is ignoring things like who is most village and all that though. I might have killed Books, Eternum, or Fura as well since people were reading them Village, but they fall under one of the categories I don't like to kill first. I know that not everyone goes this way, but yeah. 

The WGG, of course :P. 

I also seem to remember Connie asking for reasoning in a previous game when I was voting on other people, though I may be hallucinating. 

Sure, I get it. Though now we're both doing what you said was suspicious, and trying to theorize the elim strats

If I were elim, I'd also try to keep the more experienced players alive longer. Getting them mislynched, or fooling them, is half the fun Beyond that, I feel like our elim strategies don't differ that much.

I do not have Pailiah's blade, and I never did.

Hm. Might be worth checking their other games out, then. I'm.. still busy with the D1 thread

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Just now, Eternum said:

Hm. Might be worth checking their other games out, then. I'm.. still busy with the D1 thread

Yeah....I just skimmed through the games and saw nothing. So. I'm assuming I was Hallucinating. 

I also reminded myself that I'm slightly suspicious of Turtle for being inactive- I didn't even realize they were here, honestly... but their inactivity has been not posting anything, not...minimally posting. so less suspicious, but would still like to see them come talk @eltruT

[Quintessential she/her]

2 hours ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I'm going to take this as someone who is unsure and bows to the superior knowledge of someone who reads the rules better than themselves. Which...doesn't sound like you from what I've seen...but oh well. we'll just go with that, as I don't wanna waste a day discussing you again. 

Yes, Pailiah's Blade has Progression and Illumination. It's like the ultimate protection Blade lol

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

Sure, I get it. Though now we're both doing what you said was suspicious, and trying to theorize the elim strats

Whyyyyy are we still saying it's sus to theorize elim strats? If we're not thinking about what the elims might do, or why they might have done something, we're really not getting much of anywhere.

[STINK he/him]

oh hey PMs are still open cool

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

As I still really don’t have much of idea what’s even happening in this game, and I doubt I ever will due to the extremely long D1, all my suspicions are gut-reads only. And at this point I don’t have enough information to really make an actual good post describing why I read certain people as more elim. Hopefully I can try to tear apart day one soon. Yet again, I’m sorry that I probably won’t be as helpful in this game until the later cycles.

[Condensation she/her]

5 hours ago, Ooklil' the Wei said:

I'm going to take this as someone who is unsure and bows to the superior knowledge of someone who reads the rules better than themselves. Which...doesn't sound like you from what I've seen...but oh well. we'll just go with that, as I don't wanna waste a day discussing you again. 

If your goal of asking for reasoning is to be able to consider/think about it, then you should be asking about every vote without reasoning, not just the ones on you. Asking just about the ones on you implies that the reason isn't that, but to defend yourself. Not something individually suspicious, but off-putting to me because that's not what you're saying. 

I have a hard time remembering the Honorblades. For some reason, one is stuck in my head but I can't remember any of the others or what they do. Chanarach has Division and Abrasion, a Stormlight for death exchange and PM opening.

I was saying that I like it when people post reasoning for votes on me so other people must like it too and remarking on how little they do.

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Grammatical said:

I have a hard time remembering the Honorblades. For some reason, one is stuck in my head but I can't remember any of the others or what they do. Chanarach has Division and Abrasion, a Stormlight for death exchange and PM opening.

I have written down on a piece of paper what each surge and each blade does. That helps a lot lol

[Mat he/him]

I forgot to follow this thread -_-.

I'll do a reads list here now. Probably be less complete than I want (and some of you want) but here you go: 

• Gears- No idea, he hasn't said anything in awhile. Null
• Illwei- Slight Village for Illwei reasons. Idk what else to say...
• Quinn- Slight Elim for D1 things (which at one point I'll figure out what) Alv vote, and a tiny PM thing.  
• SfS- SfS's alignment depends on Connie for me. He's a bandwagoner, and he didn't vote Connie, so if Connie is somehow an elim than SfS is as well. Null but dependant
• Araris- Doesn't seem elim to me iirc though I forget their posts entirely. Null+
• TJ- Slight Elim read. This is 100% gut and I should reread his posts.
• Ventyl- Behind. Null
• Experience- A Slight Elim read for gut (+reaffirmed by past games) and reasons such as their posts being sort of filler and their votes being strange.
• Devotary of Spontaneity- Maybe there will be a day I can read Devotary. Null+
• Books- Village, because of their original post that an elim would not post.
• Lotus- Slight Village for gut and PM
• Connie- Village, for in-thread, gut, PM, and all the reasons. I do not think Connie is an elim.
• Vasher- Village, for new-playery and instinct reasons.
• Turtle- @eltruT, come and play! Null, though Illwei's point about their activity is interesting.
• Kings_way- Nearly inactive, but PM reasons give him Slight Village
• Supreme- Completely inactive, Null. @The Windrunner Supreme
• Stink- Hasn't said anything of game relevance in awhile. I could find this suspicious, but I don't really... If they could say something analysis-y that'd be nice. Null-
• Jester- Seems different from what I think his elim playstyle is. But there isn't a lot to go off of, so Null+
• Alvron- Gut village, Slight Village read. May the Gods of Luck and Chance have helped me here  
• Eternum- My strongest Village read, one that I'm nearly certain of. Both from thread reasons and other reasons. If he's an elim he has gone to ridiculous lengths to pocket me, ones that I don't think an elim would opt for. So there  
• Fura- From what I remember from D1, Fura seemed reasonable in both reads (even if I disagreed with their vote of Connie) and way of speaking. Slight Village is what I'll put him at, though I'm interested in what he has to say about my survival  

I'm aware I don't have enough elim reads for the number the elims likely have, which is... slightly concerning, but that's my thoughts.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Ookla's Dice
Of course this would make a new page...

[Condensation she/her]

10 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

I have written down on a piece of paper what each surge and each blade does. That helps a lot lol

Oh, that's a good idea. I should put that in my notebook. Someone remind me when I'm less busy.

[Ashbringer he/him]

(I also stuck it in the writeup... at least which Blade has which surges. I could probably add the Surge abilities themselves.)

[Gears]

I could have sworn I had posted this cycle. Oh well. My activity is going be sporadic for a bit because finals are soon, and studying takes time.

Matrim was protected by the Surge of Progression. There are two blades that could have done this: Vedel and Pailiah. I do not think Matrim was protected by an elim. If it was Vedel, then that person is completely out of Stormlight and opened PMs for one night only. An elim would either not want PMs or want to maximise PMs. In addition, they probably wouldn't want to waste resources and burn all/most of their Light C1. If it was Pailiah, then that person could have used Illumination and prevented the kill from being roleblocked or just saved Stormlight. Because of this, I suspect that the protector was village. Therefore, I think Matrim is village, because the elims wouldn't kill one of their own without a protect. Of course, this could be what they want me to think, but for now, I think that the WGG did not happen. However, this is based off of my mindset of saving resources, and I am quite possibly underestimating the value of a semi-cleared elim. 

People I noted in my votes analysis post N1: Books [for repeating reasoning], Eternum [for disliking vote switches], Somebody [for no reasoning], Illwei [for disliking vote switches], Devotary [for disliking vote switches]. Out of these, I suspect... none of them. I don't like Somebody's bandwagoning, but that seems to be their playstyle. Books was an early voter. Disliking vote switches is perfectly valid. I have to reanalyse things, but I would be willing to vote Somebody, if only because of the bandwagoning. 

[Mat he/him]

I’m just gonna throw this out there, however strange it looks.

Stone Shaman, if you ever want/need to claim to someone, or need a safe target to pass blades to, I’m your guy. As Gears so eloquently pointed out, it isn’t likely that I was wgg’d. And I wasn’t. A Progression user trusted me enough and I’m sure we are both grateful for it.

This would be beneficial for the both of us. You’d have a trustworthy outlet to pass the blades to, and I’d get secrets  But I promise with all my SE Honor I would not kill you or use your blades for evil.

Thats all. Shaman, even if you continue alone, I wish you good luck. 

[STINK he/him]

12 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I’m just gonna throw this out there, however strange it looks.

Stone Shaman, if you ever want/need to claim to someone, or need a safe target to pass blades to, I’m your guy. As Gears so eloquently pointed out, it isn’t likely that I was wgg’d. And I wasn’t. A Progression user trusted me enough and I’m sure we are both grateful for it.

This would be beneficial for the both of us. You’d have a trustworthy outlet to pass the blades to, and I’d get secrets  But I promise with all my SE Honor I would not kill you or use your blades for evil.

Thats all. Shaman, even if you continue alone, I wish you good luck. 

Do not do this

[Flyingbooks]

12 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

I’m just gonna throw this out there, however strange it looks.

Stone Shaman, if you ever want/need to claim to someone, or need a safe target to pass blades to, I’m your guy. As Gears so eloquently pointed out, it isn’t likely that I was wgg’d. And I wasn’t. A Progression user trusted me enough and I’m sure we are both grateful for it.

This would be beneficial for the both of us. You’d have a trustworthy outlet to pass the blades to, and I’d get secrets  But I promise with all my SE Honor I would not kill you or use your blades for evil.

Thats all. Shaman, even if you continue alone, I wish you good luck. 

As I said last cycle, the Shaman shouldn't pass all of the Honorblades which they retrieve to one specific person, especially if that person is publically known, since the elims could simply kill them to get an easy motherlode of Honorblades. This post slightly increases my suspicions of you because it seems very elim-y overall, since you ask for the Shaman to claim to you and give you blades now that you're trusted, which would both be very helpful to the elims.

[ShrubSeph he/him]

Just now, Flyingbooks42 said:

As I said last cycle, the Shaman shouldn't pass all of the Honorblades which they retrieve to one specific person, especially if that person is publically known, since the elims could simply kill them to get an easy motherlode of Honorblades. This post slightly increases my suspicions of you because it seems very elim-y overall, since you ask for the Shaman to claim to you and give you blades now that you're trusted, which would both be very helpful to the elims.

Yeah, don't give the blades to one person. Even if somehow you are 100% sure they are Vil (which I don't know how that would happen, because the Shaman can't use the Honorblades, but maybe secrets) if they die, you've lost the control you have. 

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, STINK said:

Do not do this

 

3 minutes ago, Flyingbooks42 said:

As I said last cycle, the Shaman shouldn't pass all of the Honorblades which they retrieve to one specific person, especially if that person is publically known, since the elims could simply kill them to get an easy motherlode of Honorblades. This post slightly increases my suspicions of you because it seems very elim-y overall, since you ask for the Shaman to claim to you and give you blades now that you're trusted, which would both be very helpful to the elims.

Ok

Good point Books I admit I didn't think of that.

Though if we really try I bet we could arrange for me to be protected every cycle... :P.

I stand by my words because I know I am not an elim. I'm sorry it seems that way- I can totally see why, I know what it looks like and it's a calculated risk for how people read me- but I'm not going to join you in saying they shouldn't do it. I know it seems elim, but it's not. There are other reasons I ask this, ones that you'll know eventually 

 

[Eternum he/him]

I trust Mat. Mostly. But I do think that's a bad idea  Regardless, Shaman, stay covert, whatever you decide to do. Don't reveal to anyone. And certainly don't concentrate the Blades on one person, especially not someone who said that in thread

[+Lotus she/her]

I agree that may be a bad idea.

On the other hand, communication is essential...

But the truthless is dead, leaving the Shaman open to attacks....

Herm.

[Mat he/him]

Hence the 'want/need'... I don't think they should without a reason and I certainly don't expect them to do it now. I'm saying if there ever comes a time it's necessary to claim to someone I'm a good option because I'm the closest anyone could have to a confirmed village with my attacked/survived.

[STINK he/him]

26 minutes ago, Ookla's Dice said:

There are other reasons I ask this, ones that you'll know eventually

Kinda jealous you got a unique role

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, STINK said:

Kinda jealous you got a unique role

wdym by that, stink?

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Kinda jealous you got a unique role

Yeah that's not what I meant. I can see how it looks like that, but I just meant PM stuff  

[STINK he/him]

1 minute ago, Ookla's Dice said:

Yeah that's not what I meant. I can see how it looks like that, but I just meant PM stuff  

This is the worse alternative, just tell us what happens when u win holding honourblades

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, STINK said:

This is the worse alternative, just tell us what happens when u win holding honourblades

I don't win by holding honorblades :P. I win by killing the elims.