Mid-Range Game 35: Final Flight

[StrikerEZ he/him]

4 minutes ago, Darkness Ascendant said:

Sart I'm not so sure about being an elim anymore. His response to everything has instilled some reasonable doubt in me. And well, if you're going to condemn someone to capital punishment there should be beyond that. I don't feel comfortable lynching him at this stage.

Can you explain how his recent responses have given you reasonable doubt? Because, to me, they've only made more suspicious of him.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

We are halfway through D3 and there have been 2 deaths, and far less analysis that I feel there should be. Very few people are actually talking about other players. I suspect that we will be better off finding the elims in the people not talking about other players. The votes on Sart, were effective in that regard, as he started talking about players, and sounded very intelligent.

The two people I would like to hear more from in particular on D3 are Elandera and Lumgol. I don't feel like I have heard Elandera's point of view at all this game.

Also, i'll give Maill a break this cycle, but if he hasn't posted a nice player analysis post by EoD 4, I think we should lynch him then.

The last player who has been suspiciously unhelpful this game, is myself. I would like to hear more from me, and I think I would be a good D6 lynch if I have not contradicted this post before then. This weekend I am running sound for my theater again, so I will be busy. But this time, it will only be Sat/Sun and no Mon.
I will try to do a good old fashioned Fura-Analysis post tomorrow. For those that haven't played with me before, what I consider to be Fura-Analysis, is a detailed account of every player, and my thoughts on whether I suspect them or not. The problem, is I usually counter all my own suspicions and village reads, so when I am done with the post, everyone is pretty much back to neutral.

Cool, I'll get one of those out as well.

I would do it tonight, but my wifi is about to shut off in 6 minutes, so I don't really have time...

edit: several/a couple ninjas. no idea

Edited May 31, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Young Bard he/him]

1 hour ago, StrikerEZ said:

So, I didn't really get on much today because I was busy, which I had been expecting. But I forgot that I'm leaving to drive down to Austin around noon tomorrow and I've now got a private lesson in the morning I need to go to. I probably won't be able to get on much for the rest of this cycle, so I'm gonna go ahead and cast my vote on Sart for now. If Sart turns out to be elim, I'd say there's a pretty good chance Bard is elim. The only reason I think Sart would focus so much on getting Bard lynched right now, instead of trying to defend himself (assuming he's an elim) would be so that he could potentially clear himself if Bard is lynched.

If Sart turns out to be village, Bart is probably less likely to be an elim. Not ruling it out completely though, because I think Sart does make some good points about Bard. Anyway, I think DA is probably elim if Sart is village. Unless they're just playing a really high level game of two elims publicly fighting it out in the thread so that one of them can come out with the trust of the whole village.

OK, I didn't feel like I needed to respond to this when Sart voted on me, but...

Did people forget the part where I'm hard-cleared?  (Well, there's the possibility that Drake is lying, and that we're in an Elim team together, but that's not the kind of maneuver an Elim team would pull that early in the game.) While I'm here, Sart, the reason Drake suddenly trusted me so much is because they had proof I submitted an action (Light-lancing them) that I could not have done as a Gunner.

And... even besides that, I don't agree that Sart being an Elim in any way indicates I'm an Elim. I didn't just vote on Sart, I lead the lynch against them. For me to be an Elim, you'd have to believe that we, the Elim team, first decided to take an enormous risk and have another Elim lie to cover me, therefore guaranteeing that if one of us was lynched the other would almost immediately follow suit, demonstrating an extreme unwillingness to get one of our own lynched, and then the very next round, do a complete 180 on our strategy and decide to bus our own teammate.  So I really don't follow this logic.

I think the lynch right now is between Sart and Fura - I don't remember what I said on Fura last cycle when I was actually going back and looking through everyones posts, and I can't be bothered checking, but right now I don't remember anything that makes me particularly suspicious of Fura.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

6 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

I think the lynch right now is between Sart and Fura - I don't remember what I said on Fura last cycle when I was actually going back and looking through everyones posts, and I can't be bothered checking, but right now I don't remember anything that makes me particularly suspicious of Fura.

Not even me saying I should be lynched D6 and my analysis tommorow likely wont tell you anything about my actual thoughts on the game? Lol

Also, you are hard cleared under the assumtion all rebels are gunners right? I was assuming there would only be 1 (maybe 2) gunners. Not all rebels have to be gunners right?

Also, maybe we are all just taking your advice to ignore hard clears too seriously. : P

[Elandera she/her]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

The two people I would like to hear more from in particular on D3 are Elandera and Lumgol. I don't feel like I have heard Elandera's point of view at all this game.

You're not wrong. I've been focusing mostly on mechanics of Krell battles because I feel there hasn't really been enough info on players to make a valid analysis. Most of my analysis comes around C3, when (usually) at least 4 or 5 people have died. Ideally, one of those people would be an elim. However, as you pointed out, we're at D3 with a total of two deaths and no apparent attack last night.

No one is claiming to have light-lanced another player, so we have no leads there. It seems to have just been bad luck, not hitting a target hit by Krell.

I have a reasonable trust of Bard, based on claims by Drake. It would be a dangerous connection to establish early in the game. 

I'm a bit suspicious of DA, but I think it's mostly play style. He seems super aggressive, which gives me a bad gut read. I'm ignoring it right now, though, because there hasn't been anything actually suspicious.

Everyone else seems pretty... neutral. Either from lack of content or me just not remembering.

EDIT: I'll try to do something a little more solid tomorrow. Work tonight has been... interesting.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Elandera

[Darkness Ascendant he/him]

3 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Can you explain how his recent responses have given you reasonable doubt? Because, to me, they've only made more suspicious of him.

Its mostly the part that its such a weak and forlorn response that I'm wondering whether work and stuff are causing him to be inactive to the point that he doesn't really care about being lynched or not. He doesn't seem to be offering much resistance as I'd assume an Elim would- the first part can be ignored entirely. 

Casting the shade on bard is where I am suspicious- since I'm not sure how Drake knows Bard accidentally lightlanced someone and I'm not sure whether Sart's just casting shade on Bard to be a little scummy.

 

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

4

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, i'll give Maill a break this cycle, but if he hasn't posted a nice player analysis post by EoD 4, I think we should lynch him then.

Fura are you even paying attention, Elandera is one of the most active people here lol. And I don't think you're in any position go around giving other players ultimatums and encouraging baseless lynches. (If you were in a position to do so I would just call you out for mayoring )

 

 

 

2

2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

OK, I didn't feel like I needed to respond to this when Sart voted on me, but...

Did people forget the part where I'm hard-cleared?  (Well, there's the possibility that Drake is lying, and that we're in an Elim team together, but that's not the kind of maneuver an Elim team would pull that early in the game.) While I'm here, Sart, the reason Drake suddenly trusted me so much is because they had proof I submitted an action (Light-lancing them) that I could not have done as a Gunner.

And... even besides that, I don't agree that Sart being an Elim in any way indicates I'm an Elim. I didn't just vote on Sart, I lead the lynch against them. For me to be an Elim, you'd have to believe that we, the Elim team, first decided to take an enormous risk and have another Elim lie to cover me, therefore guaranteeing that if one of us was lynched the other would almost immediately follow suit, demonstrating an extreme unwillingness to get one of our own lynched, and then the very next round, do a complete 180 on our strategy and decide to bus our own teammate.  So I really don't follow this logic..

Yeah I have no idea what to think of the "hard-clear". What was the proof again and how is the proof even trustworthy?

And ngl Bard you're sounding awfully defensive in a way that isn't really needed at all- which is weird since apparently you didn't feel a need to respond before? What's gotten you to feel threatened enough to actually think out these convoluted/single-hinged defences.

I don't really recall anyone really gunning to lynch you, Striker himself wasn't really that whole-hearted behind it. I just admitted to being a little suspicious, and Fura just pointed out that Striker's logic should cause him to vote on you as opposed to Sart.

Just feels a little extra, in my opinion.

 

 

1

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

I'm a bit suspicious of DA, but I think it's mostly play style. He seems super aggressive, which gives me a bad gut read. I'm ignoring it right now, though, because there hasn't been anything actually suspicious.

I am pretty aggressive in thinking but only until I've eased out everything a line of thinking has provided me. So I actually end up being super indecisive  

All in all: I'm starting to think lynching Sart might be the best course of action again...

Everything other than him seems to be very murky. Lynching him would lead to some cut and dry results.

• If he's village then his thoughts on Bard should be explored fully and then a judgement will have to be made.
• If he's Elim then Bard is most likely village as the whole bard thing would probably have just been a last-minute ploy to lynch a villager and give himself a cycle's worth of time to figure something out. I agree with bard's reasoning upon the whole 'if Sart's elim then bard is probably elim' thinking (although for all we know this 
• If he's SK then...he's either a genius or extremely lucky lmao

I don't really have enough time to go over everything and piece stuff together and as far as short-term gain goes, Sart is possibly the best choice.

Yeah, I know I've been back and forthing on him but I've genuinely just been thinking (maybe overthinking) a lot and well with these things there are just so many possibilities that I tend to put them off until I can ascertain things. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

10 hours ago, Elandera said:

I'll see what I can do, but it's based on memory (except for votes) so it very well could be flawed.

D1

• Mostly RP. Some discussion about the worth of voting. In the end, no one was lynched and only 4 votes stuck.
  • Fura voted on Ark
  • Ela voted on CadCom
  • Sart voted CadCom
  • DA voted on Ark
  • Ela switched from CadCom to Stick
  • DA switched from Ark to Ela

N1

• Mostly RP, or questions and clarifications about space battles, and a largely failed attempt to coordinate any kind of attack. Devotary proposed probably one of the better plans, and was subsequently killed.

D2

• Votes got started early, mostly a standard D1 lynch, based on vague suspicions and possible information to be gained
  • Sart votes on Stick
  • Ark votes on Stick right after
  • Bard votes on Fura
  • Striker votes on Sart
  • Stick votes on Bard
  • Ela votes on Walin
  • Ela switches to Bard
  • Fura votes on Sart
  • CadCom votes on Bard (putting him in lead)
  • Drake votes on Joe
  • Maill votes on Stick (tie)
  • DA votes on Bard (lead)
  • Drake votes on Stick (tie)
  • Ela switches to Stick (getting rid of tie)

N2

• Talk about the SK with the rise of MBot, then attempts at coordination on attacking. Not many ideas were thrown out for coordinating beyond what the Largos could take out alone.

So the two things that stand out to me both involve DA and Ela. 

D1: these two left their various lynch targets and spread their votes to different players, making the two way tie into a four way one. 

D2: these two put their votes on at the end of the cycle to break a tie both times. 

I’m probably just ignorant, but does a tie result in no lynch? If it does, this is weird because D1, DA and Ela pushed for a tie and D2, they broke the ties. 

[+Ark1002]

11 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

(Also Ark, too bad I didn't get to meet you at the Seattle signing. Then you would know 100% : P )

gah you're mean

[Elandera she/her]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

So the two things that stand out to me both involve DA and Ela. 

D1: these two left their various lynch targets and spread their votes to different players, making the two way tie into a four way one. 

D2: these two put their votes on at the end of the cycle to break a tie both times. 

I’m probably just ignorant, but does a tie result in no lynch? If it does, this is weird because D1, DA and Ela pushed for a tie and D2, they broke the ties. 

D1 was me cowing to the opinion of others. A minimum of two votes are needed for a lynch, and a tie results in no lynch. Most of D1 discussion at the end was about whether or not to have a lynch. Sart and I were on the side of lynch. DA and Stick (maybe one more?) were against it. At the end of the turn, I was the only one actually advocating for a lynch, and no one else was voting. DA seemed like he'd keep it at a tie even if I left my vote in place for the two-vote minimum. So, I backed off.

D2, we couldn't afford to not have a lynch again, otherwise we'd just be delaying when we started getting information. I did my normal of choosing to have any lynch over sticking to who I thought should be lynched.

[DrakeMarshall he/him]

I kinda expected there to be a mob after Sarah. 'Nough people have been consistently throwin' shade at her that it wasn't not going to happen today. I was waitin' to see how it'd develop to inform my opinion of her, and I gotta say, I'm thinkin' she's probly not a reb:

1. Not enough peoples defendin' her (unless you count me, right now). This was the main thing I was watchin' out for.
2. Lots of folk sayin' that by firin' Sarah, we might figure out some stuff 'bout other folks' loyalties. But if'n we want to figure out where other folks' loyalties lie, we should court martial those people in the first place. It's kinda iffy, like court martialin' Sarah is just a means to an end, an' yous actually anglin' to get somebody else court martialed or soft-cleared.

That said, her sayin' "we need to lynch gunners afore more of us are shot outta the sky" was weird. 'Specially since lynchin' is not how we does things in the DDF; I mean that's downright barbaric; it's not like we kills folks what stop workin' for us... It's just one thing she said, an' yous quotin' it an awful lot, but I agree that it's weird.

I get the feelin' she's gonna turn out to be a loyal pilot, an' I disagree with court martialin' her. But maybe I'll stand corrected.

 

As for Julis... On one hand, my gut is sayin' Julis is legit, and I'm generally inclined to trust my gut. On the other hand, the recent developments are tellin' me otherwise, 'cause a new suspicion came together an' took the lead once Julis was leadin' in votes, and Julis also just said he doesn't think he's heard much from Brenna, which is an odd turnaround from straight up denyin' he's at all distanced from 'er. I don't want to ignore the facts just 'cause my gut says so; that's never gone too well for me in the past.

 

Also, I noticed a thing. @Elandera, why'd you automatically assume that on the first night Yaw gettin' shot down was the work of the rebs? It's definitely not an unreasonable prediction, but it didn't as much sound like it was a prediction comin' from you, I guess. I'd be grateful to hear what you have to say about that.

Quote

At first glance, the choice to kill Devotary doesn't seem to give any obvious hints. I'll have to go back and review what's happened, though. It could be they chose her because she's a pretty good strategist for a game like this.

 

Edited May 31, 2019 by MrakeDarshall
added relevant quotation

[Elandera she/her]

42 minutes ago, MrakeDarshall said:

Also, I noticed a thing. @Elandera, why'd you automatically assume that on the first night Yaw gettin' shot down was the work of the rebs? It's definitely not an unreasonable prediction, but it didn't as much sound like it was a prediction comin' from you, I guess. I'd be grateful to hear what you have to say about that.

Brenna was a little taken aback at the question. She'd thought, at least at first, it was obvious the Gunners took down Yaw(n). But apparently she'd not quite paid enough attention as a cadet.

"That's because I'm still learning. Only flown two missions as a pilot after all. I, uh, must have zoned out during the lessons on our shields. I kinda thought the turrets could take out our ships in one hit, despite our shields. When I saw Yaw(n) shot down, I just kinda assumed it had to have been a rebel. I mean, Yaw(n) wouldn't have let the Krell take her down."

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

@Darkness Ascendant my suggesting a lynch on Maill D4 is not baseless. Maill is a good player, and I expect good players to be contributing to a game. How else are we supposed to catch them?

By giving him until D4, I have given him over 48 hours to do analysis and figure out what is going on. I think that more than fair.

It would be baseless if I said to lynch him today. That will give us no info.

I am about to start my analysis post now.

Edit: Also, activity is not the same as contribution. I called Elandera out for not talking about players, and she started talking about players. My post about her did what it was supposed to.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Steeldancer he/him]

There are about 3.5 hours left in the turn. Submit any actions and ship requests before that end, and get your votes in. I'm not entirely sure I'll be on exactly at 8, because my family is celebrating my birthday today and I have no idea how long that'll take. But the turn will end at 8, and anything submitted after that won't count. 

[Elandera she/her]

Current vote count:

Sart (3) - Striker, Elandera, Bard
Bard (1) - Sart
Fura (2) - Ark, Drake
Drake (1) - Joe

I have not had time today to do any real player analysis (sleep, though interrupted a few times, was more important). I'll be leaving my vote on Sart unless something changes. I will be occupied for the next few hours and will only be able to take cursory glances at the thread.

[Sart he/him]

Well, I got off of work early, and I'm still in the lead to be lynched court-martialed. In the interest of self-preservation, Bard, I'm still suspicious of you, but the light lance claim makes things awkward. Furamirionind, you're the only other person with more than one vote. Sorry.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@Darkness Ascendant my suggesting a lynch on Maill D4 is not baseless. Maill is a good player, and I expect good players to be contributing to a game. How else are we supposed to catch them?

By giving him until D4, I have given him over 48 hours to do analysis and figure out what is going on. I think that more than fair.

It would be baseless if I said to lynch him today. That will give us no info.

I am about to start my analysis post now.

Edit: Also, activity is not the same as contribution. I called Elandera out for not talking about players, and she started talking about players. My post about her did what it was supposed to.

I agree, I think it's fair. I don't think it's fair how little attention I've been giving this game, but if you read the other one, it was kinda necessary.

I'm not a fan of ties not giving any lynch, so I don't like how it is so far. DA feels genuine to me, but is the only one that seems off based off the votes so far. Elandera's explanation makes sense and is NAI for her, I believe. I'm not sure where the lynch on Fura or Sart is coming from. 

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Ok, I forgot how fast a MR moves... 

---

Snipexe, "Scissors": Neutral

Snip has posted 4 times this game. Mostly they have been pretty meaningless, except for where he advocates for a no lynch today as well. Or at least says he wont be placing a vote. @Snipexe there will be a lynch today, so please place a vote on someone.
He was completely right this is basically a D1 lynch though...
 

Xinoehp512, "Llerk": Neutral

Xino hasn't posted much either. Though he has made a game relevant post as well, where he says that DA sounds genuine.
My only concern with Xino, is I know he plays an essentially identical elim/village game. However he usually does more RP than he has so far this game. While this definitely doesn't raise red flags, it is a minor differance from his normal game, and therefore, keeping an eye on Xino is a good idea.

This definitely doesn't deserve an elim lean however.
 

Elandera "Bad Wolf" Brenna: Neutral

While Elandera has done quite a bit of posting this game, it has almost all been about the Krell. When talking about the Krell, she also has never mentioned the SK.
After being prompted, she did a quick and dirty player analysis post, but those are all gut reads, and she didn't commit to any single opinion.

However, I generally like Elandera's tone and she has been helpful with the Krell. While this doesn't make her any less likely to be an elim, it does mean we should be reluctant to lynch her immediately.

Elandera is another player on my watch list
 

Mailliw73, Millis “Storm” Stromberg: Neutral

Justifiably preocupied, but I stand by what I said before. If we don't get some good content by EoD4, he should be our lynch.
Ninja'd by Maill, and I like what he says. I agree with Elandera being NAI, and that Sart's lynch doesn't make sense.
 

Ark1002, Bard "Bastard" Dominion: Neutral (slight elim?)

Vote on me basically has no substance to it. He claims to be sheeping DA, but DA hadn't cast a vote on me, and was clearly confused about what had happened. One of the theories he suggested had me being evil, but when someone is that confused, you have to take their thoughts whith a grain of salt.

My problem, is Ark has read to me as an elim every game I have played with him except for LG54. Where I still read him as an elim for having a completely different playstyle than his normal. Casting semi-random votes is also not uncommon for Ark, but a DA/Ark elim team would be interesting if the vote on me was an Ark slip...

Furamirionind, Julis "Junior" Elliot: Elim

Very suspicious, says that you can't trust their reads, questions others, doesn't post analysis, but even if they did, you couldn't trust it. Says they should be lynched D6. These things may sound like jokes, but generally speaking, by calling themself an elim and so on, they subtly discredit other's claims that they are that in you subconscience. I forget what the actual effect is called, but it is very useful for people not to think about you too hard. Anyone applying these tactics must be lynched ASAP. Or D6. Either works.
 

Cadmium "CadCom" Compounder: Neutral (um do you mean Lum?)

CadCom's posts are all NAI.
Lum has barely posted
If it was yesturday, I would vote on Lum to try to force her to post something, but it isn't yesterday, and I don't want a CFD on Lum.

I'm working on the next group, but they are the group that will actually have reads... (im just working down the player list)

Could someone post a votecount so I can see if I am in danger of dying? I would really like to finish this analysis before I die... and I never did get around to that role analysis...

Edit: nvm, just added Sart's vote to Elandera's vote count. Right now, no one is getting lynched... Hmm...

Edited May 31, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Sart he/him]

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Could someone post a votecount so I can see if I am in danger of dying? I would really like to finish this analysis before I die... and I never did get around to that role analysis...

Sart (3) - Striker, Elandera, Bard
Fura (3) - Ark, Drake, Sart
Drake (1) - Joe

Vote's tied right now. You've got 3 votes, and so do I. You could break the tie, if you so choose, and court-martial me. We only have 45 minutes to decide the lynch. Considering that's what village or elim you would do, I'm going to speed up this process. Furamirionind, I give you a choice. Lynch me, or lynch Joe. Why Joe? Well, he's seemed off to me this game. He was around at rollover on Day 2, but chose not to vote. Today, he's voting on someone I trust. I considered putting my vote back on Bard, but his alibi appears to be solid. Even if you do vote on Joe, it's still likely I get lynched, but at least it's an alternative for you.

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Im working on my analysis still, just working on Sart right now, and I like him.

I want a CFD on Drake. no one should trust Drake. It is unfortunate he wont be on before rollover, but as he will survive the lynch to kill us all, I think it will be fine.

Since I feel like Sart will vote on me if a CFD starts on Drake, I will temporarily vote:

Furamirionind I did read them as evil anyways...

Edit: @Sart I take your choice, and raise it by one choice! : P

Edited May 31, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Mailliw73 he/him]

What is a CFD and what is up with Fura?

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

What is a CFD and what is up with Fura?

CFD - CFD'ing or to "CFD" someone is when a group of voters suddenly switch votes right before end of day to someone who was previously not in contention to be lynched.

I don't know where the term came from. I just picked it up from MU. I probably should have said hammer...

[Elandera she/her]

13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Im working on my analysis still, just working on Sart right now, and I like him.

I want a CFD on Drake. no one should trust Drake. It is unfortunate he wont be on before rollover, but as he will survive the lynch to kill us all, I think it will be fine.

Since I feel like Sart will vote on me if a CFD starts on Drake, I will temporarily vote:

Furamirionind I did read them as evil anyways...

Edit: @Sart I take your choice, and raise it by one choice! : P

Are you trying to keep a tie in place? We really can't afford to keep not lynching anyone...

[Furamirionind They/Any/All]

Just now, Elandera said:

Are you trying to keep a tie in place? We really can't afford to keep not lynching anyone...

I don't like the Sart lynch

[Elandera she/her]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

I don't like the Sart lynch

Would you propose a better one? Lynching yourself is ineffective, as is a tie. Even if we don't like a lynch, it's better than no lynch.

[Sart he/him]

10 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

What is a CFD and what is up with Fura?

According to Google, Computational Fluid Dynamics. Or, probably more accurately, from the CDC Mafia wiki

Quote

CFD - A Chinese Fire Drill is when everyone switches votes last minute and lynches a player previously not in contention to be lynched.

We could technically lynch Drake if Mailliw, Furamirionind, and myself all voted on him. The problem is, I think he's a villager. Even worse, I think you're evil, Mailliw, but that's mostly gut read. With their vote on themselves, Fura's tied up the lynch once again. It's counterproductive to have a tie vote today, so let's get this over with. I can't vote on Fura, as they would just remove the vote on themselves. Joe, I still suspect you. but Sart is the only person we can actually court-marshall.

Last guess for Elim team: Elandera, Mailliw, Joe, and someone inactive.