Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So Steel was an evil Smoker 1, and also the Assassin, which means Zane can't be insta-killed and any Coinshot 2s can't be killed at night. With Elandera confirmed Rioter 1, Steel's list of Mistborn suspects is Stick, Straw, Snip, and SMaill. If these were all genuine suspicions, then none of these would be elims. Shortly afterwards, this list was pared down to Stick and Snip, and then just Stick, so I'd say Stick and Maill have the lowest chances of being elims out of all of those. Perhaps Joe will pass on continued Zane suspect lists. I don't know how Steel narrowed down the list so quickly, and it's entirely possible the Mistborn were cut from the list due to time constraints, but it's probably worth looking into those Mistborn suspects.

Another notable events from yesterday was the early four vote lynch on Rath that disintegrated after Stick and Maill switched over to Steel. Steel started the lynch on the basis that other people suspected Rath. I'm guessing Stick, Maill, and HH were some of the one suspecting Rath given that they voted for him, but that may not be true. Rath was apparently not a high priority Mistborn target for Steel, which would mean Steel had a pretty good idea as to Rath's alignment.  Finally, did Steel actually want a CadCom lynch on D2? Steel supposedly smoked two of CadCom's voters to keep the lynch intact, but otherwise didn't affect the outcome of the lynch that was 4-3 between CadCom and Coop. D3, CadCom built and then backed off on a case for Coop and Steel being the Mistborn, while Coop was the second vote on Steel and then bailed at the end when it was clear Steel would be lynched. I think this indicates that Steel was fine with a CadCom lynch.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Cycle closed!

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

“...you let the assassin die.” 

Senn Conrad’s head swivelled around the basement where Lekal’s men were meeting. Blank stares greeted him for the most part, though a few newer members had slightly widened eyes at the edges from his tone. Good. They should all be quaking in terror for their blunders. He began again. 

“Do you honestly mean to tell me that you let Elend’s men simply execute the man we specifically hired to dispose of the rogue Mistborn?” His voice rose in intensity and anger. “The one with the best chance of killing the very threat which brought this entire operation down the last time I spearheaded it?” He flared his iron, sending a small deluge of coins and metal figurines hurling at his chest at terminal velocity. Of course, the hard wooden plate on his front easily withstood the objects, and they clattered to the ground in front of him. He picked up a coin, contemplating it for a moment. He then threw it to a surprised crewperson, who made a fumbling catch. “You think I run this operation because of the gold you pay me,” Conrad whispered. “I can get all the gold I wish for. I am part of your group for vengeance against those Mistborn and against the Venture usurper. Let Lekal’s army starve to death and consume itself outside the city! I care not. But I will not allow you all to fail this mission. It is too essential; we are the only ones with the power to neutralise the two great dangers of our time.”

The same blank stares greeted him, though the wider eyes were more prevalent now. Conrad grimaced, feeling his anger flare up white-hot within him. Perhaps he would have to do it all himself. “Very well then,” he said. “Expect me back in a few hours.” Burning Iron and Pulling on a heavy metal bar fixed to a ceiling beam, Conrad soared in the air, his practice with Iron making him nearly as effective with movement as a Coinshot or Mistborn. He would seek his own targets tonight. 

---

Makail sat slumped over by his intricately constructed, interlocking tower of steel and iron. A true pity that nobody ever came close enough to one of his devious architectural inventions for him to see them work as intended. He supposed that nobody was going to come into the outskirts of Luthadel if they could help it; while high crime rates were a convenient myth, and kept plenty away from Makail’s dwelling, he’d figured that somebody would accost him eventually out of suspicion or treachery. But so far, his peace remained undisturbed.

So he drifted back to sleep, not knowing of the two cloaked figures drawing steadily nearer with each dropped coin. 

---

Conrad had found the man he was looking for—Cadoxi, apparently a Thug judging by their bulging frame and the callous ease with which they handled their heavy sword. He was appropriate as a bodyguard, Conrad supposed, as he did now, standing protectively over somebody’s sleeping form. Well, it was none of Conrad’s business who the man shielded. It was just his job to kill him. 

Burning a mere trace of iron, the familiar blue lines cropped up in Conrad’s vision. Most of the metal sources were too heavy to move. It was not the case with the bag of clips Conrad had left directly behind the bodyguard, in a direct line to his current position. He smiled, adjusting his wooden breastplate, then closed his eyes and flared iron. 

A muted thud was all that announced Cadoxi as he hit the ground, fifteen holes in his torso. Ignoring the muffled cries of the sleeping form, which had just awoken, Conrad laughed as he sprinted away and then took to the air, Pulling on bars of iron to aid his flight. So Steel was the important external physical metal? Nonsense. He would break Luthadel with a rod of solid iron.

---

Zane alighted softly on top of a small stone house, turning off his steel before making a gentle landing on its flattened roof. He looked down at the sleeping form of Makail, a soft smile bathing his face. All too easy, once again. The man expected nothing, and with Vin covering the path of his retreat, it would be a quick and harmless sting. Hopefully this would be another Spider. Flipping a coin between his fingertips, Zane flared his Steel, Pushing it towards the sleeping man. 

A slight creaking under his feet was all the warning Zane would get as the entire house came crumbling down from underneath his feet. Too shocked for befuddlement, Zane cried out in pain as his body hit the mass of stone bricks and iron bars below; meanwhile, with Zane’s position changed, the coin he shot flew wildly off-course, fading into the misty sky. That had hurt. Zane coughed, and was greeted with a handful of blood. Excellent. What was this contraption he had stumbled into? Seconds ago, it had been a sturdy stone house with metal supports; now, it lay in a heap of rubble. Likely Makail, who was now fled, had somehow designed it to trick Mistborn. Zane groaned. He had to get out of here before Day broke. Burning Steel, being careful to Push only on his coin this time, he shot towards Vin, chants of death circulating in his head as his wracked and injured form took to the skies. 

---

 

Cadmium Compounder was attacked and killed! He was a Elend’s Loyalist Thug 1!

Hemalurgic Headshot was attacked, but survived! 

Day 4 has begun! It will end in 46-47 hours on Monday 27 May at 9 PM EDT (-4:00 UTC). 

There is a lynch today, with no votes required to kill a player. Please remember that PMs are closed at Day. 

Good luck! 

Player List: 

1. Mailliw73 as Laila, a noblewoman whose pretentiousness is rivaled only by her disdain for Elend

2. Elandera as Era, an old Terriswoman too stubborn to evacuate a ruined city

3. Lumgol as Aname Plees, a skaa representative of Elend wanting to fight Lekal

4. Furamirionind as Ford Prefect, a hidden, delusional researcher and author

6. Snipexe as Snip, a fabric cutter in the local quilt chain, Reap What You Sew

7. Araris Valerian as Hadrian Penrod, a versatile man with a versatile definition of mortality Village Soother 2

8. Xinoehp512 as Dedne, a depressed man working long hours at Reap What You Sew Village Smoker 1

9. Young Bard as Lethir, a man with self-confidence and an axe to grind Village Thug 1

10. Devotary of Spontaneity as Varuun, a Kandra given a second chance at accomplishing her goals

11. Arraenae as Needa Naime, a slightly oblivious girl who loves her mother The Librarian

12. Steeldancer as Zane the Mad, who likes singing about killing and death (normal?) Assasssin Smoker 1

13. Ark1002 as Abe, a skaa who knows his place within the established order of things

14. Rathmaskal as Doma, a recluse who spends her life making small wooden statues

15. Cadmium Compounder as Cadoxi, an armourer from House Venture fleeing Straff’s displeasure Village Thug 1

16. Hemalurgic Headshot as Makail, an unemployed skaa enjoying his free lifestyle

17. STINK as Jumae II, a colourful and enigmatic character Village Rioter 2

18. _Stick_ as Astick, an old man with a wooden leg that secretly contains vials of metal

19. Straw as Oramen Hausk, a minor noble reduced to begging in the aftermath of the Lord Ruler’s fall

20. Adavantos as Ixiom Renaud, who believes that no supposition should be held as axiomatic

21. Coop772 as Heer Kilyal II, a snowy owl struggling to escape extinction

22. Randuir as De’Tess, a Kandra given a second opportunityVillage Smoker 2

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

The message, as I couldn’t work it in to the writeup: 

Quote

I don’t really have  much to say. I agree with Steel’s analysis of who Zane is. It is probably Stick, then Snipexe. I do recommend not lynching them quite yet though, as Steel is very confident that his team will win, and dropped the fact that they are prepared for a ‘pesky Thug 1 to interfere’ which means they have so sort of protection on the player who is doing the killing.

I didn’t do mistwhispers last night because I had nothing to say in them. This night is kind of the same? I don’t have any secret information that I can really pass on. Though I am trolling Steeldancer in the dead doc with what secrets I do know.

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Fifth Scholar

[Furamirionind]

I am seriously concerned that CadCom died. I will post why later as I dont have time right now. But there is a more pressing issue.

@_Stick_ I need your roleclaim. Someone is lying somewhere. Feel free to give it to me in code.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

8 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I am seriously concerned that CadCom died. I will post why later as I dont have time right now. But there is a more pressing issue.

@_Stick_ I need your roleclaim. Someone is lying somewhere. Feel free to give it to me in code.

Not sure what the Stick thing is about, but concerning CadCom, me too. 

He told me last night that he was a Thug 1, but that Fura, Lum, and I were the only three he’d told. I’ve so far really trusted those two. So, did either of you share that claim with anyone else?? If so, that would lead us probably straight to the person who killed him. 

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Not sure what the Stick thing is about, but concerning CadCom, me too. 

He told me last night that he was a Thug 1, but that Fura, Lum, and I were the only three he’d told. I’ve so far really trusted those two. So, did either of you share that claim with anyone else?? If so, that would lead us probably straight to the person who killed him. 

He didnt tell me who else he told. @Lumgol what did CadCom tell you in his roleclaim?

[Elandera she/her]

It's probable that those who pushed hardest for the CadCom lynch might be highest on the elim/Mistborn suspect list. Especially depending on when CadCom  claimed. 

I'll try to take some time tonight or tomorrow to look into that.

However, with the assassin dead, I do believe we should start looking closer at possible Zane candidates. If we have to lynch him twice, we need to start now.

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I’m going to start the voting with Rath. You and CadCom are the two that wavered back and forth in my suspicions and I wasn’t sure about either of you, but now that he’s dead, I think you’re probably my top suspect. I’m still not super settled with how you reacted to the lynch that began on you last day. 

[Lumgol she/her]

I didn't tell anyone about CadCom's claim.

[Stick. she/her]

7 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

prepared for a ‘pesky Thug 1 to interfere’ which means they have so sort of protection on the player who is doing the killing.

Probably Conrad with his Lurcher2 ability

6 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

He told me last night that he was a Thug 1, but that Fura, Lum, and I were the only three he’d told. I’ve so far really trusted those two. So, did either of you share that claim with anyone else?? If so, that would lead us probably straight to the person who killed him. 

 

6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

He didnt tell me who else he told. @Lumgol what did CadCom tell you in his roleclaim?

They must’ve figured he would be a Thug1 when he offered Lum to vote on him, saying his role would definitely clear him as village. And it did - I can only see Thug1 being a villager as the elims/MB already have some form of killing. 

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@_Stick_ I need your roleclaim. Someone is lying somewhere. Feel free to give it to me in code.

Umm okay I’m gonna use the PM code thing. With reference to the listed roles section in the rules doc, my role should correspond with the placement of the letter ‘m’ in the first line of the first message I sent you. The listed roles in the rules doc aren’t numbered so you’ll have to count them, sorry.

Not many people know my role, I don’t think.

7 hours ago, Elandera said:

If we have to lynch him twice, we need to start now.

Shoot I forgot about that 

[Furamirionind]

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Umm okay I’m gonna use the PM code thing. With reference to the listed roles section in the rules doc, my role should correspond with the placement of the letter ‘m’ in the first line of the first message I sent you. The listed roles in the rules doc aren’t numbered so you’ll have to count them, sorry.

Not many people know my role, I don’t think.

Just to confirm, are you counting every letter, or only unique ones?

Edited May 26, 2019 by Furamirionind
Added, then removed the same thing before anyone entered the thread.

[Hemalurgic Headshot he/him]

This is probably the worst time to not have any super strong suspicions. Like Elandera said, if we're going to get Zane, we should start as soon as possible.

I'm going to fall back on the hypothesis I've been referencing the entire game and pray it finally does something, because Rath is the last person alive who voted on Bard D1. Only one of the four needed to be evil, and now there is only one left. Granted, this means that Rath is Vin, because Vin has the possibility of getting Tineye 2, which is what this whole mess revolves around. However, that is only a possibility, but I'm going to cling to it having no other option.

I've been kind of out of the whole PM loop that everyone's been talking about, so I have nothing other than this crazy plan. But, hoping I'll be vindicated*, Rath.

*See what I did there?

[Stick. she/her]

30 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Just to confirm, are you counting every letter, or only unique ones?

Every letter

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Every letter

From my first post then, can you explain why "w"?

Edit: also what are your results from last night?

That should be my last question I think. : )

Edited May 26, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Snipexe he/him]

Hey guys, I’m so sorry for my rampant inactivity, I had a bunch of surprise finals last week, and so couldn’t really get on.

Here’s my list of people I think are cleared of being Zane:

1. Headshot

2. Joe

3. Lum

So that’s like 3 people out of 12 and obviously there’s more villagers then that, so is there anyone who is considered for sure clear?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

5 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Hey guys, I’m so sorry for my rampant inactivity, I had a bunch of surprise finals last week, and so couldn’t really get on.

Here’s my list of people I think are cleared of being Zane:

1. Headshot

2. Joe

3. Lum

So that’s like 3 people out of 12 and obviously there’s more villagers then that, so is there anyone who is considered for sure clear?

I’d add Elandera to that list. She proved her Rioting. 

[Elandera she/her]

Alright, I'm doing some role analysis now to see if I can narrow some things down regarding which roles we should find suspicious.

Spoiler

It's hard to see the bolded Xs on this, but I have my own and Lum's roles bolded, since we've been able to confirm them.

The Xs I have are how I think roles might be distributed. Obviously, there are more roles than people left, so it's not 100% accurate. Not that it would be anyway, since this is just my guess as to how things might be distributed.

Anyway, I suspect the elim roles are more focused on vote manipulation and solidification, due to their win-con.

It is possible, however, they have a Tineye 2 role and that's how they discovered CadCom. We should probably look at whose votes have been left on him in previous cycles.

I also don't believe we'll have any more than 3 of one role distributed between the factions.

This also means while HH is not fully cleared of being possible elim, I am more inclined to lean village on him. That also depends on the size of the elim team, because Thug 2 is still a possibility, and the Mistborn are looking to kill the elims. They could have targeted him based on his interactions with Steel, with the assumption they may be teammates.

Also, if we have a Seeker 1 still out there, please contact me or someone you really trust. We need to get the information from your scans out into the world.

EDIT: Oh, I forgot to remove the second X for a village Seeker 2. I believe the Librarian would have been the only one with that role for village.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Elandera

[Lumgol she/her]

@Snipexe, Fura has also been cleared of being Zane.

[Stick. she/her]

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

From my first post then, can you explain why "w"?

Are you referring to the player corresponding to ‘w’?

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

also what are your results from last night?

I targeted ‘u’ from your first message (counting unique letters only this time). The result was...positive. I originally planned to target ‘h’ but found reason to change. Also I’d like to discuss things about my N2 target though with you in PM.

Anyway, vote to come soon.

[Elandera she/her]

Oh, a few things I forgot. If someone protected HH, please contact me. At this point, I'm trying to narrow down roles so we can narrow down possible elims/Mistborn based on that.

Here is the list of players I have yet to learn their roles. While I don't want any public roleclaims, it's just how I need to start my list for finding Mistborn (preferably Zane, based on number of lives).

• Snipexe
• Devotary
• Ark
• Rath
• Stick
• Straw
• Adavantos
• Coop

Of those, the least likely to be Zane would probably be Snipexe, Ada, and Ark simply based on activity levels. They may still be Vin, though. I will also remove Stick, based on the interactions with Fura (though I'd caution against complete trust if the role in question is a Seeker 1).

So that narrows it down to:

• Devotary
• Rath
• Straw
• Coop

I need to look more closely at the attempted Rath lynches, but I'm not outright opposed to one this turn yet. If that seems to be where things are moving, I'll be willing to place my vote there.

As for Coop, I'd probably place him in the elim category rather than Mistborn, based on his interactions with Steel.

Mostly, I'm concerned at how much both Devotary and Straw have flown under the radar this game. I don't like it at all. Both are too good to have stayed out of pretty much everyone's analysis posts.

Devotary

Edited May 26, 2019 by Elandera
Spelling and some such nonsense.

[+Ark1002]

Ah, good, still alive

Limited internet access, sorry

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

They must’ve figured he would be a Thug1 when he offered Lum to vote on him, saying his role would definitely clear him as village. And it did - I can only see Thug1 being a villager as the elims/MB already have some form of killing. 

CadCom's original push was that he would be able to prove his role at night(false, as there would be no way for him to ensure that his target was attacked) and that a Seeker 1 scan would clear him(false, as Zane has Thug 2 and Vin has access to Thug 1), which means only a Tineye scan would have cleared him. Somewhere along the line, he went from lying about his role even when he was up for the lynch to telling three different people.

43 minutes ago, Elandera said:

This also means while HH is not fully cleared of being possible elim, I am more inclined to lean village on him. That also depends on the size of the elim team, because Thug 2 is still a possibility, and the Mistborn are looking to kill the elims. They could have targeted him based on his interactions with Steel, with the assumption they may be teammates.

Are you clearing HH of being an elim based on the fact that he survived the Mistborn attack? While Thug 2 and Coinshot 2 are possibilities for how someone could survive an attack, two other ways are Lurcher 1 and 2, both possessed by Senn.

All we know about Stick's claimed role is that it is capable of targeting people and receiving some sort of result. I don't see how that clears her of being Zane, as Coinshot 1, Soother 2, and Seeker 1 all fit that description. Hopefully, we'll learn more about this situation when Fura comes back, though that supposedly won't be for another six hours or so according to Fura's post in MR 35.

[Elandera she/her]

34 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Are you clearing HH of being an elim based on the fact that he survived the Mistborn attack? While Thug 2 and Coinshot 2 are possibilities for how someone could survive an attack, two other ways are Lurcher 1 and 2, both possessed by Senn.

That was not my intention, though it was my initial reaction. The whole latter half of the paragraph you quoted is why he might still be elim.

My clearance of Stick is temporary, and may change after looking closer at past turns. It's mostly based on my trust of Fura.

EDIT: Something I hadn't considered until I read the write-up is a possible roleblock. If we have a Soother 2 out there, and you targeted someone, that might be a good clue as to our Zane.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Elandera

[Mailliw73 he/him]

I don’t think a roleblock would show up as an attack on HH that he survived though.