Long Game 55: Disquiet

[Furamirionind]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Are you referring to the player corresponding to ‘w’?

I targeted ‘u’ from your first message (counting unique letters only this time). The result was...positive. I originally planned to target ‘h’ but found reason to change. Also I’d like to discuss things about my N2 target though with you in PM.

Anyway, vote to come soon.

I havent read anything below this post yet. Working on it.

No, I am refering to the role "w". Why?

Can you tell me who you targetted N2 now? Why must it wait to PMs? If you phrase the post right, you wont be giving away any info to anyone else.

Also, you know full well that "u" doesnt tell me anything. Surely you know why I am not waiting for PMs to have this discussion?

[+Ark1002]

Good day everyone.

Sorry about my inactivity.

I'm gonna go Hemalurgic Headshot, gut read.

[Furamirionind]

35 minutes ago, ApatheticTeenager said:

Good day everyone.

Sorry about my inactivity.

I'm gonna go Hemalurgic Headshot, gut read.

What caused the gut read?

Edit: also, after tomorrow morning, I will be gone again until right before rollover... so I need to make my decision on Stick overnight.

@_Stick_ I think you usually get on late my time... 10-12PST?

It is important you respond, so to put some pressure on you, that is where I will be casting my vote.

If you arent online by the time I go to bed, I will need to post what I know, so that the thread has an adequate amount of time to respond.

Stick

Edited May 27, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Stick.]

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

No, I am refering to the role "w". Why?

I...don't know what you mean by that?

3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Can you tell me who you targetted N2 now? Why must it wait to PMs? If you phrase the post right, you wont be giving away any info to anyone else.

Also, you know full well that "u" doesnt tell me anything. Surely you know why I am not waiting for PMs to have this discussion?

Cuz it's not a top priority right now - we need to get the MB first. But if you must know, I targeted 'L' from the first line of your first message, counting every letter. I think they're Conrad.

Yeah, well, was a bummer for me too

I'm curious, what's happening? Did you find something last night?

[Mailliw73]

I love this code and I hate this code. 

[Lumgol]

Same.

[Furamirionind]

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I...don't know what you mean by that?

I'm curious, what's happening? Did you find something last night?

Yeah, I found out you were smoked last night.

And honestly, I hate codes in-thread. But I felt it necessary for me to get a bigger picture view before making any accusations on Stick being Zane.

I dont see why a village smoker would smoke Stick. Elandera is a good pick, and Lumgol is another good one.

That leaves an elim smoker. But one just died. And I cant imagine 2 elim smokers in this game.

That leaves a mistborn Smoker, who would smoke Zane.

Stick was smoked.

You see my progression?

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Yeah, I found out you were smoked last night.

And honestly, I hate codes in-thread. But I felt it necessary for me to get a bigger picture view before making any accusations on Stick being Zane.

I dont see why a village smoker would smoke Stick. Elandera is a good pick, and Lumgol is another good one.

That leaves an elim smoker. But one just died. And I cant imagine 2 elim smokers in this game.

That leaves a mistborn Smoker, who would smoke Zane.

Stick was smoked.

You see my progression?

Smoker 1 or Smoker 2? Smoker 2 might still have a village role remaining, though the chances are slim. Elims also haven't lost a Smoker 2, though I don't think they'd have one in the first place.

Either way, that does seem a bit suspicious.

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Smoker 1 or Smoker 2? Smoker 2 might still have a village role remaining, though the chances are slim. Elims also haven't lost a Smoker 2, though I don't think they'd have one in the first place.

Either way, that does seem a bit suspicious.

The smoker that smokes Rioters Soothers and Seekers.

In addition, Stick roleclaimed a role that is suspect, AND claims to have found Senn C2, yet didnt act on that C3?

Edit: Her action last cycle she claims was on CadCom, which of course cant be verified.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Mailliw73]

Hmm. I’m conflicted. I didn’t really have a read on Stick before and I don’t think I’ve played any games with him(except the AN/AG, where I didn’t know who he was). So up until now I haven’t seen anything suspicious from him, but a Smoking is definitely unnatural. 

Options I see: Stick is Zane or Zane smoked Vin!Stick. Or Stick is being framed by elims. Or Stick is being smoked by a villager just doing random Smokings. Or Stick is an elim and they have a Smoker. 

Thats about all I see for options. Being a Mistborn is definitely the most likely, imo. So, with only one elim down, do we go for a possible Mistborn or do we stick on a possible elim lynch and then go for the possible Mistborn tomorrow? Personally, since I have higher suspicions of Rath and Devotary than I do of Stick, I’d rather stick to them and lynch Stick tomorrow depending on the outcome of today’s lynch. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Mailliw73

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

The smoker that smokes Rioters Soothers and Seekers.

In addition, Stick roleclaimed a role that is suspect, AND claims to have found Senn C2, yet didnt act on that C3?

Smoker 2, then, which elims haven't lost.

If Stick were MB, finding Senn would have likely lead to an attempt to lynch him sooner, considering he's Lurcher. So either she's lying about finding Senn, or she's not MB.

I doubt elims have a Smoker 2, so I'd lean toward Stick being village for now. Definitely not among my top suspicions for Zane at the moment.

[Mailliw73]

I’m also less and less a fan of analysis of roles and distribution being the basis of suspicions. Maybe the GMs have gotten more predictable than when I was here before, but this got the village into trouble more than once before. I’m much more passionate about lynching someone that I have real suspicion of than someone whose role doesn’t quite fit. 

Was going to make this an edit, but Elandera replied. 

[Elandera]

4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I’m also less and less a fan of analysis of roles and distribution being the basis of suspicions. Maybe the GMs have gotten more predictable than when I was here before, but this got the village into trouble more than once before. I’m much more passionate about lynching someone that I have real suspicion of than someone whose role doesn’t quite fit. 

Was going to make this an edit, but Elandera replied. 

This is a good point. The evidence against Stick is solely speculative role analysis. I will be leaving my vote on Devotary for now.

[Furamirionind]

I've had Stick in my top 3 Mistborn suspicions for a while now. So perhaps some of this is confirmation bias. 

Maill, when roles set people apart, and they blend in the thread well, what would you propose we use to find them? The defining feature of Elims is that they directly oppose the village, and therefore struggle to fit in. The defining feature of the Mistborn is their role.

There are only so many coincidences you can tolerate before you lynch them.

Hmm, I dont think this is speculative. I also am not sharing every shred of info I have in-thread. I will relook over what I know either tonight or in the morning, when I have more energy, and I will make my final conclusion then.

This was me sharing what I had off the top of my head due to feeling bad for using a code for so long. Lol.

Edit: this isnt 100%, but when you lynch on purely gut, that also isnt 100%. I would give this pretty good odds though.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Hmm, I dont think this is speculative. I also am not sharing every shred of info I have in-thread. I will relook over what I know either tonight or in the morning, when I have more energy, and I will make my final conclusion then.

Ah, what I meant by speculative was the smoking situation alone, since I don't really know the rest of it. Aside from knowing Zane has Smoker 2, we don't know who else might have it. We also can only speculate as to why he'd smoke Stick. It could be because they're a MB, or it could be an attempt to frame them. We just don't know.

But I will wait for your further thoughts before I make a solid decision. Just for now, my vote stays on Devotary.

[Mailliw73]

Fair enough. The Mistborn are a different case than regular elims. I still believe the point stands, as there should be something that sets them apart then just their role. The kills for one should help. 

Secondly, this is the point in the game, or close to it, where we may have to decide between lynching an elim and lynching a Mistborn. What are everyone’s thoughts on that? I think once we’ve got 2(and thus, likely half) elims, then the Mistborn would be priority. 

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Elandera said:

Ah, what I meant by speculative was the smoking situation alone, since I don't really know the rest of it. Aside from knowing Zane has Smoker 2, we don't know who else might have it. We also can only speculate as to why he'd smoke Stick. It could be because they're a MB, or it could be an attempt to frame them. We just don't know.

But I will wait for your further thoughts before I make a solid decision. Just for now, my vote stays on Devotary.

What are the chances a claimed seeker 1 was smoked, and has no proof they are a seeker 1?

There is my TL;DR.

[Mailliw73]

6 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

What are the chances a claimed seeker 1 was smoked, and has no proof they are a seeker 1?

There is my TL;DR.

What has he told you? With the code, we’ve missed some things. Stick has claimed to scan CadCom(useless), and someone that he believes is Conrad? I assume a lynch of that person might be helpful in lending credence to Stick’s claim or destroying it. 

Edit: I think, at least, that knowing Stick’s claims-especially of the Conrad scan, should help inform us. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Mailliw73

[Furamirionind]

Oh yes. Let's lynch Conrad. If Stick is a mistborn, her suspicion will be genuine. And therefore, may be conrad.

Let's assume Sticks suspicion is correct. We kill conrad. Now stick gets 2 kills. No more NK protection for the elims means Stick has a chance of winning the game right then and there.

Who's team are you on Maill? MB or village? Vin!Maill seems more and more likely the longer this game goes.

[Elandera]

2 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Fair enough. The Mistborn are a different case than regular elims. I still believe the point stands, as there should be something that sets them apart then just their role. The kills for one should help. 

Secondly, this is the point in the game, or close to it, where we may have to decide between lynching an elim and lynching a Mistborn. What are everyone’s thoughts on that? I think once we’ve got 2(and thus, likely half) elims, then the Mistborn would be priority. 

As I said earlier, we should probably find Zane now as it will take two attempts to kill him. Hopefully, if we can get elim cooperation, if we find Zane, they'll finish him that night.

Also, I see a hole in knowing Senn with a Seeker 1 scan. As far as I understand things, it only shows which metal a person burned. It's possible Stick just scanned a Lurcher 1 or 2.

[Furamirionind]

You are also implying that if Stick is correct in her guess at an elim, you would clear her? That is the MB wincon too you know...

Edit: sorry, I think I am coming off a bit agressive. I am very tired and will likely be going to bed soon. : /

Edited May 27, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Mailliw73]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Oh yes. Let's lynch Conrad. If Stick is a mistborn, her suspicion will be genuine. And therefore, may be conrad.

Let's assume Sticks suspicion is correct. We kill conrad. Now stick gets 2 kills. No more NK protection for the elims means Stick has a chance of winning the game right then and there.

Who's team are you on Maill? MB or village? Vin!Maill seems more and more likely the longer this game goes.

I just meant that we’d know more likely if Stick was actually a Seeker or not. 

How does Zane!Stick get 2 kills if Conrad is dead? 

I still just don’t see an argument aside from a Smoking on Stick. If I had some kind of evil read on them, I’d have no problem with this. But, part of this is me knowing basically nothing about Stick. I’ll reread through their posts tomorrow and see if I Change my mind.

Xino, Bard, and HH were the Mistborn kills. Does anyone know what Stick’s style might be? Is he someone to frame people, someone to kill his suspicions, someone to stay under the radar with kills, etc? 

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

You are also implying that if Stick is correct in her guess at an elim, you would clear her? That is the MB wincon too you know...

Honestly, it’s still weird to realize that the “SKs” have the same win con as us. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

47 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I dont see why a village smoker would smoke Stick. Elandera is a good pick, and Lumgol is another good one.

That leaves an elim smoker. But one just died. And I cant imagine 2 elim smokers in this game.

That leaves a mistborn Smoker, who would smoke Zane.

Stick was smoked.

 

35 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Options I see: Stick is Zane or Zane smoked Vin!Stick. Or Stick is being framed by elims. Or Stick is being smoked by a villager just doing random Smokings. Or Stick is an elim and they have a Smoker. 

Thats about all I see for options. Being a Mistborn is definitely the most likely, imo. So, with only one elim down, do we go for a possible Mistborn or do we stick on a possible elim lynch and then go for the possible Mistborn tomorrow? Personally, since I have higher suspicions of Rath and Devotary than I do of Stick, I’d rather stick to them and lynch Stick tomorrow depending on the outcome of today’s lynch. 

There is almost no chance that a village Smoker 2, if one still exists, would target Stick last night give that she was a Mistborn candidate and a possibility for Seeking. The elims having a smoker 1 and a smoker 2 is unlikely, so the options are 1.Stick is a Mistborn, 2. Zane decided to leave himself open to Seekers, Soothers, and Rioters on the off chance that he could frame Stick. 3. Stick is a village Smoker 2 who actively prevented herself from proving her role to Seekers by self-targeting. Not lynching based on role distribution is for cases where you don't know how the roles are distributed. In this game, we have perfect knowledge of the Mistborn's abilities, and one of them is Smoker 2.

33 minutes ago, Elandera said:

If Stick were MB, finding Senn would have likely lead to an attempt to lynch him sooner, considering he's Lurcher. So either she's lying about finding Senn, or she's not MB.

I doubt elims have a Smoker 2, so I'd lean toward Stick being village for now. Definitely not among my top suspicions for Zane at the moment.

If village!Stick found Senn, would she not also attempt to lynch him, or at least tell someone like you who is essentially guaranteed village? A villager can be open about their role in that case, but Zane cannot afford to try and prove their role because a Tineye 2 scan instantly catches them. 

2 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I just meant that we’d know more likely if Stick was actually a Seeker or not. 

How does Zane!Stick get 2 kills if Conrad is dead? 

I still just don’t see an argument aside from a Smoking on Stick. If I had some kind of evil read on them, I’d have no problem with this. But, part of this is me knowing basically nothing about Stick. I’ll reread through their posts tomorrow and see if I Change my mind.

Knowing whether Stick is a Seeker isn't relevant, and almost condemning, as Zane is a Seeker 1 and Vin has access to Seeker 2. Zane!Stick doesn't get two kills if Conrad is dead, but it does make it far easier for Zane to kill the remaining elims. 

At the very least, this warrants @Lumgol voting on Stick to definitively determine whether or not Stick is a Mistborn. It seems such a thing was close to happening last day cycle, and then weird code things happened with Fura and Mailliw. Did either of them encourage/discourage you from voting on Stick? Additionally, since you know Fura's role, does it makes sense for Fura to know whether Stick was Smoked?

[Stick.]

53 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Yeah, I found out you were smoked last night.

I wasn't told I was smoked

46 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

claims to have found Senn C2, yet didnt act on that C3?

Elandera's right - I only know they burned iron. That didn't automatically tell me their role so I didn't try to get them lynched. But at this point in the game it seems more likely than not that they are Conrad

 

15 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

How does Zane!Stick get 2 kills if Conrad is dead? 

I don't see how killing Conrad would give the MB 2 kills

4 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

1.Stick is a Mistborn, 2. Zane decided to leave himself open to Seekers, Soothers, and Rioters on the off chance that he could frame Stick. 3. Stick is a village Smoker 2 who actively prevented herself from proving her role to Seekers by self-targeting.

1. I see why Fura has come to the conclusion that they have 2. After Steel's vote and suspicions of me being Zane, this would actually be a smart thing for the MB to do. 3. Nope

7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

At the very least, this warrants @Lumgol voting on Stick to definitively determine whether or not Stick is a Mistborn.

I said I'd be okay with this last cycle as well

[Furamirionind]

13 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I just meant that we’d know more likely if Stick was actually a Seeker or not. 

How does Zane!Stick get 2 kills if Conrad is dead? 

I still just don’t see an argument aside from a Smoking on Stick. If I had some kind of evil read on them, I’d have no problem with this. But, part of this is me knowing basically nothing about Stick. I’ll reread through their posts tomorrow and see if I Change my mind.

Xino, Bard, and HH were the Mistborn kills. Does anyone know what Stick’s style might be? Is he someone to frame people, someone to kill his suspicions, someone to stay under the radar with kills, etc? 

Honestly, it’s still weird to realize that the “SKs” have the same win con as us. 

D3:lynch elim

D4: lynch conrad

N4: MB kill

D5: lynch MB

N5: MB kill

The game ends night 5 with good analysis by the MB and a bad lynch on conrad today.

How has your PM gone with them? Have you been focusing as hard on elims as you have in thread? I assume so, as they avoided all my questions about their opinions on the MB. I find that suspicious in itself, and have just kept that to myself. Because I was waiting for role analysis. The thing that will actually catch the MB.

Ok Maill. You asked me what I learned from the championships, and how that would affect my play here. I sort of avoided the question as I didnt know. Here is my definitive answer:

Quote

I learned the power of roles, and the info they provide.

I learned that a rolecop can confirm someone's alignment almost as good as an alignment cop with right circumstances and analysis.

I learned that knowing a players meta is important.

I learned that, more important than knowing a players meta, is knowing how much of their meta a player knows. (This, is generally not possible to know without extensive play with someone)

I learned when things look suspicious, you kill it. Why? Because if you are wrong, you gain a ton of info. (I dont think I am wrong, but regardless what happens, I guarantee we get a ton of info from this lynch)

I learned when there is a coincidence, you lock it up so it cant get away. When another happens, you lock the player up. When YET ANOTHER happens, you kill the player. Jackshepard was kept alive in my championship game even though time after time his reads were anti village, but worded nicely. At some point, you just have to kill him, and realize, yeah, that's a good player. But too many coincidences shows the evil ones.

Ninjad by Devotary, and just realized, @Elandera a villager should be 100% honest about who they think is Senn. You dont want to lynch that person until Zane is dead. So it is important to share that. A Mistborn shares it when? When they are up for the lynch.

Stick only shared it after I voted on her.

Ninja'd by stick. Posting this before I read her post.