Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Karnatheon he/him]

Also, Steel should be cleared now I believe.

[Amanuensis he/him]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Also, Steel should be cleared now I believe.

I believe so as well, and am glad to have one less question mark to consider. Really bad luck that HH got hit again, though, since he was already cleared by Randuir isRand's last attack  I'm getting ready for my flight now but I will definitely read Mark's response sometime today and reply, and also hopefully talk about Mr Doctor since he is one of the players I remember being suspicious of early on in the game. On that note, though, I want to point out that despite Steel being attacked, Doctor managed to write a post in direct response to Steel's accusations within 16 minutes of the write up being posted. If Doctor was evil, then he probably wouldn't have thought much about it preemptively since he'd expect Steel to die, and at the very end of said post he declares it looks bad for Steel that he was ganging up on him with Fura and considers voting for him, in SPITE of Steel surviving an attack. That sounds less like an eliminator with knowledge of kills ahead of time and more like a villager who missed the failed attack. Maybe that seems like a pretty silly thing to read somebody on but it takes a bit of... I'm not really sure how to word it? Some kind of mix of confidence and impassiveness?... to pull that off, let alone quickly. I'm not sure many people are capable of it. 

 

[Steeldancer he/him]

Oh yay I survived. Mr. Doctor. Also, seriously RIP HH. Getting hit twice by the same creature? That sucks. Also, Mr. Doctor, the problem is now my gut is telling me you are suspicious. 

3 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

I commented on her vote on Snipexe and said that I don't really have much against the vote even though I didn't agree with it at that stage. I did end up voting on Snipexe that cycle to solidify it. Additionally, I told her what Fifth had said about the preferred minimum number of players.

Yes, and Snipexe was a hardy villager. If you are an elim, it would be smart for you to kill any hardy villagers that there are. So of course you would solidify the lynch, and of course you would pretend to not agree with it. If I may remind you, I ran LG46, I watched first hand as you single handedly fooled the entire village. So, I'm a little more willing to be suspicious of you for the little things, like yes, even "yet" which I may say you didn't apply to any other individual in that post. Granted, if you were an elim, then there would likely be more than one elim on that list, but I feel like it's a slip up. Possibly. 
Thing is, there's no proof for Randuir being elim, other than the weird Emond's field messages, which honestly are starting to get on my nerves. @randuir, how are you not involved in making these messages at all? Thing is, like Mr. Doctor, Randuir also doesn't have huge tells. Thing is... honestly, I don't know if this is Randuir's style. If it were someone who's more of a troll, like Alvron or Stink, I would be suspicious of them in a heartbeat. But Randuir tends to be a bit more straightforward, and his tells tend to be in his actions. The very same reasons I'm suspicious of Doctor- his actions. One can look as village as all heck in your posts, but honestly I find his vote on Snipexe and his interactions with Brightness to be contrived. Smartly contrived, but contrived. 
Also, it is somewhat nice to be cleared. Although, I doubt the elims will like it much. I'll probably end up dying tonight, so I guess I'll just do as much as I can before then. 
edit: reread the writeup, seems Randuir did have something to say! I'm... less convinced Randuir is an eliminator than I am of Mr. Doctor. Also, I'm not sure I like the tag "close to endgame." 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Ookla the Positive

[Furamirionind]

It sucks because I dont have enough time to do the analysis on MrDoctor that he deserves. The Aginor claim is my gut and nothing else. Him being an elim though is based in a bit more. (Again note: I dont have my notes, and probably wont for the rest of this game as I will be doing it on my phone or work computer)

I have been mentioning my suspicions of MrDoctor for a while, but when I first took note of him, it was D3, because i think he should have died N2. I really do. Full explanation in my post there.  I did some analysis on this, mostly revolving around the point that he should be dead. He responded to the post, then didnt turn up in-thread for a while. I understand being busy, but if you were an elim, this could also help get you out of the limelight.  The killing pattern of the elims went toward semi-inactive players.  When Bard and I were elims in LG50, we decided to go after fully inactives to make the game more interesting.  Semi-actives are still people contributing to discussion somewhat, and therefore can be valuable to the village. Killing them I dont think is going on hard mode. This means either the elims felt that they needed to make the game more interesting starting C2/3 (which seems early to me) or they had another reason.

If there are other reasons to explain the killing pattern, say them. I will be following the thread, and can change my vote/respond etc. I just wont be able to do detailed stuff.

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If Doctor was evil, then he probably wouldn't have thought much about it preemptively since he'd expect Steel to die, and at the very end of said post he declares it looks bad for Steel that he was ganging up on him with Fura and considers voting for him, in SPITE of Steel surviving an attack. That sounds less like an eliminator with knowledge of kills ahead of time and more like a villager who missed the failed attack. Maybe that seems like a pretty silly thing to read somebody on but it takes a bit of... I'm not really sure how to word it? Some kind of mix of confidence and impassiveness?... to pull that off, let alone quickly. I'm not sure many people are capable of it.

Hmm...

Aman's post makes sense, and I am withholding my vote from MrDoc for now... i will try to look closer at some other players i am suspicious of, but i wont be able to do any reall analysis. 

If someone has time, i would appreciate a second person looking over either Mark or Aman...

[Mr Doctor]

2 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

Oh yay I survived. Mr. Doctor. Also, seriously RIP HH. Getting hit twice by the same creature? That sucks. Also, Mr. Doctor, the problem is now my gut is telling me you are suspicious. 

5 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

I commented on her vote on Snipexe and said that I don't really have much against the vote even though I didn't agree with it at that stage. I did end up voting on Snipexe that cycle to solidify it. Additionally, I told her what Fifth had said about the preferred minimum number of players.

Yes, and Snipexe was a hardy villager. If you are an elim, it would be smart for you to kill any hardy villagers that there are. So of course you would solidify the lynch, and of course you would pretend to not agree with it. If I may remind you, I ran LG46, I watched first hand as you single handedly fooled the entire village. So, I'm a little more willing to be suspicious of you for the little things, like yes, even "yet" which I may say you didn't apply to any other individual in that post. Granted, if you were an elim, then there would likely be more than one elim on that list, but I feel like it's a slip up. Possibly. 
Thing is, there's no proof for Randuir being elim, other than the weird Emond's field messages, which honestly are starting to get on my nerves. @randuir, how are you not involved in making these messages at all? Thing is, like Mr. Doctor, Randuir also doesn't have huge tells. Thing is... honestly, I don't know if this is Randuir's style. If it were someone who's more of a troll, like Alvron or Stink, I would be suspicious of them in a heartbeat. But Randuir tends to be a bit more straightforward, and his tells tend to be in his actions. The very same reasons I'm suspicious of Doctor- his actions. One can look as village as all heck in your posts, but honestly I find his vote on Snipexe and his interactions with Brightness to be contrived. Smartly contrived, but contrived. 

Snipexe's Lynch: I suppose that it's reasonable to assume that I could fake the entire latter half of this post in order to appear more hesitant about Karnatheon's suspicions of Snipexe. And now that I read that Cycle again, I realise that I didn't solidify the lynch. I apologise, I made a mistake and was reading the wrong Cycle because I forgot that Snipexe got lynched twice. When he was finally killed, I was the second person to vote on him after Karnatheon. My reasons for voting on him were because I believed in Karnatheon's logic and trusted his judgement, and would only proceed once I knew that Snipexe had a lower chance of being Rand. Could I have faked this? Of course I could have. But given the fact that I pointed out very good reasons why one would not lynch Snipexe, I think that it's reasonable to assume that I was not trying to get rid of Rand, because an Elim would probably focus harder on Rand than give Villagers a way to avoid lynching him. If Rand dies, everyone who votes on him gets suspected, and so Elim!Doctor would want as many people as possible to dogpile it to make analysis harder, and therefore undermining Karnatheon's argument would be detrimental to that cause. I initially didn't disagree with that lynch (the first one) because frankly I didn't really know enough about the players to vehemently oppose a lynch. I joined the second one because I agreed with Karnatheon. Apologised about the mixup in which lynch I voted on, that was my mistake in remembering the Cycle, and I thought that I'd voted on him the first time.

"Yet": My speech patterns probably do appear suspicious, yes. When I'm typing casually, I like to have fun with words. I make small jokes, and I add in little bits of drama to my writing as I write it. "Yet" was a small fancy that I indulged in because it was a way of saying that I was watching BR to slip up, as I don't believe that there are any players (except for maybe our Neutral Randuir) who don't look suspicious at some point, regardless of alignment. I could have appended "yet" onto the end of every comment I made like that and the meaning (at least, how I thought of it) would be the same. I feel like it's a similar situation to when I clarified what I meant by "the watchlist" when talking to Furamirionind halfway down this post. It's a pattern of speech. The reason why I believe that this is NAI is that when I'm an Elim, I proofread ridiculously. Writing a single post in LG46 could take up to 3 hours because I combed it for each detail and tailored every sentence and claim to have the right balance of Village and neutrality without making it seem like I'm trying too hard. When I'm a Villager, I write honestly and don't proof my posts with nearly the same level of detail, which for some reason makes me look more suspicious despite being more honest. So the fact that you're noticing discrepancies in my posts is more likely to be a sign of me being a Villager more than an Elim. I don't expect you to believe me, but consider it regardless.

Interactions with BR: My interactions with her are minimal, and I suppose that you could say that I'm trying to make some connection so that we don't look like we're actively avoiding each other, but not so much that it can be read into, but that's tenuous evidence at best, and not good enough for a lynch in my eyes. @Ookla the Positive Could you provide some more details on how you're reading my interactions with her?

 

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

It sucks because I dont have enough time to do the analysis on MrDoctor that he deserves. The Aginor claim is my gut and nothing else. Him being an elim though is based in a bit more. (Again note: I dont have my notes, and probably wont for the rest of this game as I will be doing it on my phone or work computer)

I have been mentioning my suspicions of MrDoctor for a while, but when I first took note of him, it was D3, because i think he should have died N2. I really do. Full explanation in my post there.  I did some analysis on this, mostly revolving around the point that he should be dead. He responded to the post, then didnt turn up in-thread for a while. I understand being busy, but if you were an elim, this could also help get you out of the limelight.  The killing pattern of the elims went toward semi-inactive players.  When Bard and I were elims in LG50, we decided to go after fully inactives to make the game more interesting.  Semi-actives are still people contributing to discussion somewhat, and therefore can be valuable to the village. Killing them I dont think is going on hard mode. This means either the elims felt that they needed to make the game more interesting starting C2/3 (which seems early to me) or they had another reason.

If there are other reasons to explain the killing pattern, say them. I will be following the thread, and can change my vote/respond etc. I just wont be able to do detailed stuff.

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If Doctor was evil, then he probably wouldn't have thought much about it preemptively since he'd expect Steel to die, and at the very end of said post he declares it looks bad for Steel that he was ganging up on him with Fura and considers voting for him, in SPITE of Steel surviving an attack. That sounds less like an eliminator with knowledge of kills ahead of time and more like a villager who missed the failed attack. Maybe that seems like a pretty silly thing to read somebody on but it takes a bit of... I'm not really sure how to word it? Some kind of mix of confidence and impassiveness?... to pull that off, let alone quickly. I'm not sure many people are capable of it.

Hmm...

Aman's post makes sense, and I am withholding my vote from MrDoc for now... i will try to look closer at some other players i am suspicious of, but i wont be able to do any reall analysis. 

Gut Aginor Read: I can't really argue with that, other than to deny it. I am not Aginor, and that will become clear if I am lynched.

I Should be Dead: If I understand your point about how the Elims should have killed me: I was active and analytical in the first few Cycles but quiet in Night 2, which means that I can be killed without people being able to think about why I was targeted, because I didn't have any recent suspicions. @Furamirionind Is that correct? The Elims could have any number of reasons for killing people or not killing them, and so while I think that your logic holds, I don't feel that it's conclusive. Perhaps the Elims wanted to go after more inactive players before semi-actives. Perhaps they thought that I would be suspected by everyone more because of the reputation that my first game earned me. If I hadn't gotten any good suspicions at the time, they may not have gauged me to be a threat, and could deal with me later.

 

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

On that note, though, I want to point out that despite Steel being attacked, Doctor managed to write a post in direct response to Steel's accusations within 16 minutes of the write up being posted. If Doctor was evil, then he probably wouldn't have thought much about it preemptively since he'd expect Steel to die, and at the very end of said post he declares it looks bad for Steel that he was ganging up on him with Fura and considers voting for him, in SPITE of Steel surviving an attack. That sounds less like an eliminator with knowledge of kills ahead of time and more like a villager who missed the failed attack. Maybe that seems like a pretty silly thing to read somebody on but it takes a bit of... I'm not really sure how to word it? Some kind of mix of confidence and impassiveness?... to pull that off, let alone quickly. I'm not sure many people are capable of it. 

I didn't see that in the writeup until I had sent that post, and I wanted to get a response to Steel after the accusations that he made to me, because I need to be more active and I decided that he would probably be voting on me this Cycle. I didn't want a bandwagon to start before I had a chance to defend myself.

 

This Cycle I feel most suspicious of Furamirionind. He led the lynch against Drought, trying to get it started for several Cycles now. He's thrown suspicion at me that I consider to be poor. And he's managed to ingratiate himself with the Village with Ring analysis, which is a pretty efficient way to earn trust. I don't really like it, but I'll wait for a while to vote. I want to hear responses first.

[Amanuensis he/him]

Hey everyone, just settled into the Paris Airport and am searching for a place to eat and somewhere I can buy an outlet converter since I left mine back in Zagreb. Going to try and do some analysis once I get food since I’ll be stuck here for the next couple hours. I have been thinking more about the Mr Doctor thing I noticed today and it really seems to me they are village. I also think that the elims may have gone after Steel to make it look like wanted to get rid of Doctor’s dissenters. Given the end game tag, I would really rather not have another mislynch.

I’ll start with looking over Mark’s response and consider that whole situation more thoroughly. At this point in the game the village should have a decent amount of information to compile and use to solve, and with the failed attack on Steel + this thing with Doc, that narrows our pool of suspects down significantly.

EDIT:

Okay so I read Mark’s reply from the previous turn again and I have some responses.

Regarding his first interaction with any player being a now-known Elim, it’s far from evidence and shouldn’t really be a thing to hold against him. I like how he worded his suspicion in this reply, too, about BR’s activity yet lack of constructive input. It’s a perfectly valid reason to be suspicious of someone, and given how early in the game it was there really wasn’t much to go of off. Heck, I even recall someone calling what he did swinging at low hanging fruit? I should try to find that passage again because now I’m wonderingly if it’s was an elim defending her.

Regarding the not joining the Metalynch, that even hints at less. @Mark IV, you chose you vote for randuir then. Do you still find him suspicious? Can you lay out all the reasons why (even if you may have already)? I have in my early game notes to pay attention to him and I havent admittedly. I’m still not entirely sure what all the Fielder’s drama is about.

As for the thing with Rath losing his vote to defense, I still kind of think it’s a slip and honestly it’s the only real reason why I’m suspicious. Maybe I didn’t explain why effectively before, so let me try again.

Let’s say me or you (as in whoever is reading this now) is an eliminator. We know for a fact that Balthamel didn’t cancel Rath’s vote, and we know for a fact that Rath didn’t sabotage because he isn’t on our team. That means from the get go we know the cause.

Now let’s imagine the same scenario as a villager. We see the vote isn’t gone, and what do we assume? Nothing! Because unless we know that players alignment for sure, there’s three distinct possibilities with critical implications.

Mark’s question to Rath wasn’t remotely accusatory or even really that inquisitive. Off the top of my head (I’m posting mobile) he literally said “I’m assuming you lost it from defending?”

When you consider the fact that Mark was suspicious of Rath, why ask it like that? Of course an eliminator is going to come claim that. The way to get a helpful response is to challenge them, to make them sweat by pointing out the possibility of being evil, and accusing them. For someone who said he was suspicious of Rath and was considering voting for him, he didn’t even really go about it in any meaningful way. It was as if he wanted other people to question it without really caring about if it worked or not.

That’s my read of the situation at least. When I imagine eliminator and villager psychology, I have a lot of trouble imagining a villager acting that way.

But then the thing in the warriors doc happened and confused me. I can’t really think of a valid scenario where an eliminator would claim they’re evil and take it back right after a villager responds, other than maybe casting doubt through confusion. It would be a lot better if they just denied it from the start, imo.  A villager, on the other hand, doesn’t have much to lose in claiming eliminator to an eliminator, but a lot to gain based on a response.

And thus I’m torn. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Amanuensis

[DeTess she/her]

9 hours ago, Ookla the Positive said:

Thing is, there's no proof for Randuir being elim, other than the weird Emond's field messages, which honestly are starting to get on my nerves. @randuir, how are you not involved in making these messages at all? Thing is, like Mr. Doctor, Randuir also doesn't have huge tells. Thing is... honestly, I don't know if this is Randuir's style. If it were someone who's more of a troll, like Alvron or Stink, I would be suspicious of them in a heartbeat. But Randuir tends to be a bit more straightforward, and his tells tend to be in his actions. The very same reasons I'm suspicious of Doctor- his actions. One can look as village as all heck in your posts, but honestly I find his vote on Snipexe and his interactions with Brightness to be contrived. Smartly contrived, but contrived. 
Also, it is somewhat nice to be cleared. Although, I doubt the elims will like it much. I'll probably end up dying tonight, so I guess I'll just do as much as I can before then. 
edit: reread the writeup, seems Randuir did have something to say! I'm... less convinced Randuir is an eliminator than I am of Mr. Doctor. Also, I'm not sure I like the tag "close to endgame." 

As you've seen, I did have something to say. Mostly, I let the elim put down what they want unless it's a direct attempt to frame me, and they extend me the same courtesy.

Anyway, let's see if I can figure this game out (spoiler alert, I can't).

There's 10 survivors, dropping me and steeldancer (because he's pretty much cleared by that attack) means that there's 8 suspects left. most likely 3-4 of these 8 are elims.

I'm fairly certain Cadcom is village as well, given his early position on the BR train, and I feel similarly about Furami.

Now, there's a couple more conclusions that can be made. First of all Amanuensis and Mark IV are pretty likely to not both be elims. They could both be village, but I'm not seeing an elim team with both of them given their most recent interactions. Furami has been going after mr Doctor for a while now, so I think they are unlikely to both be elims as well. 

Finally, I don't think Sart and Aman are both elims, given that Sart started a fairly early attack on Aman D4 for reasons that, while not particularly strong, would have made decent sense, especially if Aman had been active.

Possible 4-man teams(in the spoiler):

Spoiler

 

Amanuensis, mr doctor, A joe in the bush and Karnatheon

Mark IV, Sart, mr doctor, a  joe in the bush

Mark IV, Sart, mr doctor, Karnatheon

Mark IV, Sart, A joe in the bush, Karnatheon

So, If I start working with the above restrictions, the first thing I notice is  that there's only 1 4-man team that works with Amanuensis, and it includes Karnatheon, who I've been leaning village on for the entire game. The only 4-man team without Karnatheon is Mark IV, Sart, Mr doctor and a Joe in the bush. 

I'll be going through these teams in more detail in a bit to try and see if any of them don't actually work, or work particularly well interaction-wise.

[CadCom he/him]

So I've looked at Mark, Aman, Fura, and Mr. Doctor

Mark: Aman seems (half) convinced that Mark is an elim. He does say "And thus I'm torn" reflecting his uncertainty in this. But before Mark's posts from last cycle, Aman was reading Mark as Hard elim. Mark's posts themselves don't really tip me off the same way that they've tipped Aman off though. I see them as relatively self-explanatory, the only thing that really confuses me is that he would claim to be Elim the Fal Dara Warrior doc. But I mean, that doesn't sound like something that an Elim would do, if their identity wasn't hidden.
I can't get a solid read on him, so I'll put him on Neutral

Aman: Mark said that he was leaning soft village on Aman, because it just looks like Aman was misled by Mark's false-claim. His own analyses to me seem to be relatively well thought out, but sometimes seem rushed, (Apparently he is travelling though, so I understand that) Plus, rushed makes it look more like they aren't being as careful as an elim would try to be. 
I'm reading as ever so slightly village, just because Mark reads him like this. Other thant that I don't have much of my own read. 

Mr. Doctor: I know how statistics work, and I know that results from one test do not necessarily affect the results from the next test, so it is possible that Mr. Doctor is Elim, but I have a hard time believing that because he already has been elim twice since he began playing, which I don't believe was all that long ago.  But knowing that he could be elim, because the results from this RNG are not necessarily the same as the results from any other assignment from other games, I will look and I see that many others have suspicions against him. I think more than anything, people are afraid of him, because they've been duped by him twice, I don't think anything in his posts is particularly telling, and I tend to agree with his defense posts. I'm leaning village on him.

Fura: So I was thinking, I'm not sure how crazy my idea is so I want to put it past you all before acting on it. So Fura hasn't been wanting to defend the rings at all, saying that it would make it take longer to get to the eye. While the math seemed to suggest that, it also seemed good, and logical. But, at the same time, The longer it takes to get to the eye, the longer before Rand can start scan-killing people who are not village, and clear village. It makes it so that Rand would only have a few attacks before the end of the game, or in other words, making the game get cut close for the village. Does that make sense? It makes me inclined to lean elim on Fura, despite having leaned village up until I thought about it. But I'm not sure how crazy that idea sounds, so before I vote, I'd like some additional feedback.

[Furamirionind]

Thank you Randuir, this should make my job easier, as I should be able to do analysis during lunch. This fielder message makes me feel like the fielder is trying to IKYK accuse Randuir, or just vent much more than I thought before. I just don't think the top message reads like Randuir.

Even though most people started leaning village towards Karn early on, I still think someone should do analysis on him (though lower priority than the others).  I remember rereading his posts after the "Apology" from the fielders doc, as there are only a few players in this game I could imagine saying that honestly, but I just kept feeling like he was more and more village... Granted, I will try to glance over his posts again at the very least.

Hmm, with these limits on the blight and the power roles still alive, I could very much see the elims having 5 total members... But if that is the case, a mislynch today kills us I think.

Ninja'd CadCom… Can't read or respond to you right now... Maybe in a little bit.

EDIT: A mislynch today wont necessarily kill us.

another edit:

@Ookla the Duck:

Quote

Fura: So I was thinking, I'm not sure how crazy my idea is so I want to put it past you all before acting on it. So Fura hasn't been wanting to defend the rings at all, saying that it would make it take longer to get to the eye. While the math seemed to suggest that, it also seemed good, and logical. But, at the same time, The longer it takes to get to the eye, the longer before Rand can start scan-killing people who are not village, and clear village. It makes it so that Rand would only have a few attacks before the end of the game, or in other words, making the game get cut close for the village. Does that make sense? It makes me inclined to lean elim on Fura, despite having leaned village up until I thought about it. But I'm not sure how crazy that idea sounds, so before I vote, I'd like some additional feedback.

This isn't what I said at all. I wasn't saying "not to defend the rings", I was saying some rings are better and some are worse. We should rush to the better ones and hold it. In the plans I set out, We still reached the "maximum of D8", but we also stayed 2 nights on ring 4, arguable the best ring here. If my posts came out like you say, I should have been lynched long ago. I stopped trying ring analysis as I didn't think people were paying attention, and thought my time was better spent elsewhere. If you want to check, I think I had a post regarding this D1, N1... and D2 I think?

Even another Edit:

@Ookla the Duck:

Quote

Mr. Doctor: I know how statistics work, and I know that results from one test do not necessarily affect the results from the next test, so it is possible that Mr. Doctor is Elim, but I have a hard time believing that because he already has been elim twice since he began playing, which I don't believe was all that long ago.  But knowing that he could be elim, because the results from this RNG are not necessarily the same as the results from any other assignment from other games, I will look and I see that many others have suspicions against him. I think more than anything, people are afraid of him, because they've been duped by him twice, I don't think anything in his posts is particularly telling, and I tend to agree with his defense posts. I'm leaning village on him.

I have never played with half of the people here before. I was the first one (I think) to put suspicion on him, and I was the first (I think) to bring suspicion back to him.  I have not been influenced by past games, as I have only skimmed a few previous ones, and whenever I do, I am always looking for something specific. (Like BRs village voice).  This may be true about Randuir and Steel, but not me.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Furamirionind

[DeTess she/her]

Just spitballing here, but would it make sense to ask mat to claim at this point? His role can easily be confirmed and is not a dire threat to the elims.

[Mark IV he/him]

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Regarding the not joining the Metalynch, that even hints at less. @Mark IV, you chose you vote for randuir then. Do you still find him suspicious? Can you lay out all the reasons why (even if you may have already)? I have in my early game notes to pay attention to him and I havent admittedly. I’m still not entirely sure what all the Fielder’s drama is about

I don't find Randuir suspicious. I think I mentioned this D5? I said I thought (and I still think) Randuir is most likely village because of his vote on BR D4. I was silicious of him D2 because I generally get vary when someone starts assuming the role of genuinely helpful villager, which players like Randuir or you start doing early on (by all means, keep it up. It's just that it feels too good to be true, so my alarms start blaring).

 

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Let’s say me or you (as in whoever is reading this now) is an eliminator. We know for a fact that Balthamel didn’t cancel Rath’s vote, and we know for a fact that Rath didn’t sabotage because he isn’t on our team. That means from the get go we know the cause.

Ah. Now I see what you mean. 

 

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

When you consider the fact that Mark was suspicious of Rath, why ask it like that? Of course an eliminator is going to come claim that. The way to get a helpful response is to challenge them, to make them sweat by pointing out the possibility of being evil, and accusing them. For someone who said he was suspicious of Rath and was considering voting for him, he didn’t even really go about it in any meaningful way. It was as if he wanted other people to question it without really caring about if it worked or not.

Firstly, yes, I literally said something like "I'm assuming you lost your vote because of a defence action?".

Personally, I didn't think saying "Did you lose your vote because of sabotage?" would field much discussion. I'm not very good at pulling of such things, and had I said something along those lines, it would have most likely looked like I was trying to throw unnecessary shade on Rathmaskal. As mentioned in my previous post, I was focusing mostly on the 20% negations. I had almost forgotten about Mondaine and Aginor's actions at the time. 

While I didn't think these thoughts consciously, it was evident to me at some level that accusing him of sabotage would accomplish nothing. I could as well accuse every player that they summoned the latest Creature of Aginor. It would produce as much sweat because I can't prove anything for it or against it, as was the case with the sabotage accusation. 

Secondly, my suspicion of Rathmaskal was based on how quickly be retracted his D1 vote from that other player (say X, cause I can't remember their name, and I'm not going to go check right now). The sequence essentially was:

1. Rath votes for X based partly on the previous game's outcome/interaction.
2. X responds by saying they're there and that they weren't an elim the previous game anyways. So, there's no reason Rath has to vote for X. 
3. Rath jovially removes his vote. 

This exchange seemed suspicious to me because either Rath had been betrayed last game, and was still weary of X. If this was the case, I'd have expected X to have been an elim (how else would they have betrayed Rath). However, this appeared not to be the case. On the other hand, it could have been simply that Rath had wanted an excuse to put in a quick D1 vote to appear contributive to discussion while not actually saying/doing anything, which is a classic elim tactic. 

Given that the first of these possibilities was quickly shown wrong, I thought it could be that the second possibility might be true. 

 

7 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

But then the thing in the warriors doc happened and confused me. I can’t really think of a valid scenario where an eliminator would claim they’re evil and take it back right after a villager responds, other than maybe casting doubt through confusion. It would be a lot better if they just denied it from the start, imo.  A villager, on the other hand, doesn’t have much to lose in claiming eliminator to an eliminator, but a lot to gain based on a response.

I didn't actually think this was what might save me. At the time I thought it was a bad idea, but I decided "What the heck? If he's evil, he can't substantiate his claim in thread anyways, so I might as well see what he says.".

Analysis aside, Happy Journey!

 

58 minutes ago, randuir said:

Possible 4-man teams(in the spoiler):

  Hide contents

 

Amanuensis, mr doctor, A joe in the bush and Karnatheon

Mark IV, Sart, mr doctor, a  joe in the bush

Mark IV, Sart, mr doctor, Karnatheon

Mark IV, Sart, A joe in the bush, Karnatheon

So, If I start working with the above restrictions, the first thing I notice is  that there's only 1 4-man team that works with Amanuensis, and it includes Karnatheon, who I've been leaning village on for the entire game. The only 4-man team without Karnatheon is Mark IV, Sart, Mr doctor and a Joe in the bush. 

Might as well vote for me already. 

In all honesty, I'd urge you to consider a team where neither Aman nor I am (are?) on the elim team. Given that from my point of view, I know I'm innocent, and I've a village read on Aman, to me, it appears you're missing something and that none of the teams you've outlined is right. So, yeah.  Just a suggestion. I'm not all that good at keeping a track of things, else I would have done it myself. 

 

Anyways, I'm off to sleep. Incase you guys want to vote me out, go ahead. Even if I can't defend myself, it'd be information for the village if I died too. I don't mind dying. So, yeah. If you guys think I'm an elim, don't hesitate to vote for me just cause I'll not be on before roll over. 

 

---

I think that's all?

Edit: I'm on for another half an hour, in case anyone else has any questions.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Mark IV

[DeTess she/her]

Right, I actually forgot to list that combination. In addition to the 4 teams I already listed, there's mr doctor, joe, karnatheon and sart as an option when both aman and mark are village.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Oh, could Mat shoot me a PM tonight? That would be nice. 

I might re-evaluate my suspicion of Mr. Doctor today, but I have to focus on completing my last two finals first. Once that's done, I am totally and completely free of any major responsibilities for a couple weeks! 

[Furamirionind]

Who has Mat contacted? I am starting to think STINK is Mat...

Edit: Forgot STINK was replaced... Honestly I am back to having no clue who Mat is and what they are doing then...

Yes, 100% send Steel a PM... I am still disappointed I haven't got one yet but whatever... At the very least if Mat doesn't claim, can we have people claim if Mat has contacted them?

Edit again: Randuir and myself apparently haven't gotten PMs yet. The correct pick from last night may have been HH, so was probably the target.  Remember, anyone you have PMed knows your identity, so the more people you have PMed, the more likely your identity is known by the elims.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Karnatheon he/him]

I know I haven't been contacted by him. I was also suspecting that an inactive was Mat for the reason that no one has come forward about it.

[A Joe in the Bush]

2 hours ago, randuir said:

Possible 4-man teams(in the spoiler):

  Hide contents

 

Amanuensis, mr doctor, A joe in the bush and Karnatheon

Mark IV, Sart, mr doctor, a  joe in the bush

Mark IV, Sart, mr doctor, Karnatheon

Mark IV, Sart, A joe in the bush, Karnatheon

So, If I start working with the above restrictions, the first thing I notice is  that there's only 1 4-man team that works with Amanuensis, and it includes Karnatheon, who I've been leaning village on for the entire game. The only 4-man team without Karnatheon is Mark IV, Sart, Mr doctor and a Joe in the bush. 

I'll be going through these teams in more detail in a bit to try and see if any of them don't actually work, or work particularly well interaction-wise.

I'm not an Elim, and I'm leaning towards Mark and Aman both being village as well. Do we have reasonable evidence to believe that there are 4 eliminators left? Might there only be 3?

10 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Who has Mat contacted? I am starting to think STINK is Mat...

Edit: Forgot STINK was replaced... Honestly I am back to having no clue who Mat is and what they are doing then...

Yes, 100% send Steel a PM... I am still disappointed I haven't got one yet but whatever... At the very least if Mat doesn't claim, can we have people claim if Mat has contacted them?

Unfortunately, I am not Mat. I'm not fully certain if I should roleclaim, but I am willing to.

[DeTess she/her]

I'm going to do my best to go through all players on my suspicions list and compare their interactions. However, I can't guarantee I'll complete it today.

Joe

I'm starting off easy. Joe only has a single post (and STINK before that only had one as well). He voted on Mark following Aman's lead (and brought some reasons why he thought Aman was village), and expressed hesitance at voting for Drought because he hadn't been able to read through all his posts yet.

This post is NAI, and more importantly, doesn't exclude him from being on the elim team with either Aman or Mark. The lynch had by then been solidified, so elim!joe could have voted to distance himself from elim!mark. His soft defense of Aman could have been an attempt from elim!joe to get into village!Aman's good books or help elim!Aman.

karn

karn Has made a lot of posts. It's less than 600 though, so I guess I've got that going for me. There is surprisingly enough not much in the way of links to other people. He read Doctor as village pretty early on in the game, but that's about it.

Now  for a quick intermezzo: @A Joe in the Bush, there could be 3 elims, but I'll assume 4 until proven otherwise.

mr Doctor

 

In this post he talks about being wary of Karantheon in response to a post by Mark. More interesting is his stated suspicion of Young Bard over his vote against BR, which he said was poorly justified, but at the same time he also said that the vote against him was a test of BR and steeldancer. This feels off to me, as if you believe someone has poorly justified their vote, then them flipping village wouldn't tell you much about the persons they where voting on because the vote was poorly justified. It seems like he's trying to bet on multiple horses at once, which makes me suspicious of him given young bard's and BR's alignments.

D3 he listed Karnatheon as village, but being watched, and Mark IV as Neutral. nothing particularly interesting here apart from that and doesn't preclude him from being team-mates with either of these two.

last day-cycle he shared some more player analysis. I think his read of Furami is of particular note,as he keeps open all possibilities, and then hinges it on the Droughtbrigner vote, which he later reiterates by stating that given how Drought flipped, Furami is more suspicious than himself.

I don't see much in that would prevent him from being team-mates with anyone in my group of interest, but I can see the case against him a lot better now.

Mark IV

Interestingly enough, he'd thrown early shade at BR, which I'd forgotten about. He did that in a way that was supposed to make other people take a deeper look at BR, which generally would be a poor distancing tactic.

There's also some early shade-throwing at Karnatheon. In both these cases he keeps all his options open, but his interaction with Karnatheon seems more specific and pointed than with BR.

Apart from this, there's the whole discussion between him and Aman, which I've talked about a bit before. His post about BR has got me thinking again. it didn't really have a bite to it and it only came after someoen esle took a look at BR. However, because of the relative lack of bite it'd have been a poor distancing post, as it'd have been difficult to point back to and say 'hey look, I was definitely very suspicious of BR!'. On the other hand, he's asking people to take a closer look at BR, which is once again dangerous, because it increases the risk of someone finding something that could get her lynched without ti benefiting elim!mark much.

Edited December 18, 2018 by randuir

[Mark IV he/him]

I forgot to mention this in my post:

I forgot to defend last cycle. I'll definitely be defending today! Reminder to other people too. Don't forget to defend!

[DeTess she/her]

Unfortunately, that is all I've got time for right now. I'm going to vote mr doctor as he fits in most teams, and because a number of his interactions (as outlined in my post above) look pretty fishy in hindsight.

[Furamirionind]

I was thinking about the roleclaiming a bit more:

No one should roleclaim at this point. The elims should have enough info to narrow down who Rand and Green Man are significantly. And we need to keep Rand alive.

Because of constantly switching computers at work, and then going to be switching to my phone after work, I don't think that I will be able to post substantial analysis.  I will be doing some, and will do what I can to post it during the night cycle. I will have a lot of time (on my phone) during the 30-45 minutes preceding rollover. I will have to do most of my posting then I think.

Edit: @Rand, there is a creature that I think has 1 health. If we kill that creature today, elims only have 1 kill. I have never been so happy that the elims have 1 kill. : )

Edited December 18, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

There are precisely 4.1 hours left for you to submit orders. Please get them in  

[A Joe in the Bush]

I'll follow Randuir's lead and vote for [ Mr. Doctor ]

[Mr Doctor]

3 hours ago, randuir said:

In this post he talks about being wary of Karantheon in response to a post by Mark. More interesting is his stated suspicion of Young Bard over his vote against BR, which he said was poorly justified, but at the same time he also said that the vote against him was a test of BR and steeldancer. This feels off to me, as if you believe someone has poorly justified their vote, then them flipping village wouldn't tell you much about the persons they where voting on because the vote was poorly justified. It seems like he's trying to bet on multiple horses at once, which makes me suspicious of him given young bard's and BR's alignments.

Hmm. Fair enough, that is a pretty big discrepancy. I suppose I should have outlined how my thoughts had changed in that post.

 

3 hours ago, randuir said:

last day-cycle he shared some more player analysis. I think his read of Furami is of particular note,as he keeps open all possibilities, and then hinges it on the Droughtbrigner vote, which he later reiterates by stating that given how Drought flipped, Furami is more suspicious than himself.

What do you think this means about me?

 

I'm going with what I said last Day, and so Furamirionind. You've focused on Drought, who was a Villager, and you focused on me, both for a significant portion of the game. And I worry that you've duped the Village into trusting you by providing helpful analysis of the Rings.

[Furamirionind]

36 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Hmm. Fair enough, that is a pretty big discrepancy. I suppose I should have outlined how my thoughts had changed in that post.

 

What do you think this means about me?

 

I'm going with what I said last Day, and so Furamirionind. You've focused on Drought, who was a Villager, and you focused on me, both for a significant portion of the game. And I worry that you've duped the Village into trusting you by providing helpful analysis of the Rings.

You "worry I have duped the village"? Your reasoning on voting for me is basically that of a revenge vote... I did analysis that most people thought valid on Drought, so accusing me on that case is based solely on the result and not what brought me there. Analysis of the rings is something that needed to be done, you will notice that I also have been consistently talking about players this game, just as much, if not more than I talked about the rings. 

This accusation sounds desperate to me... Like you think the game will end if you die... Is this true?
If you are the Green Man, you should role-call, as you are close to getting lynched, and it will buy us 1 extra cycle with Rand.

MrDoctor

Edited December 19, 2018 by Furamirionind
added vote

[Amanuensis he/him]

I have 1% battery and can’t find a working outlet in Atlanta Airport so I may not be on the rest of the turn. Going to keep looking tho