Long Game 5: Noble Secrets

[Kasimir]

I am going to try to keep this short and to the point, because I'm sick (the bug's all over the university at the moment), and the meds are all just making me tired and drowsy.
 
My vote is for Tion. I've mentioned earlier that while I don't think the trio of Macen, Tion, and Jost are all GBs, I think we have at least one leak there, and I still stand by it. Add the fact that they’ve been awfully good at leading the charge to getting innocent people killed and it reads to me as though the fact that Joe turned out to be a noble only raises in my eyes the likelihood that at least one of them is a GB. And I think the most likely candidate, in the end, is still Tion.
 
There have been concerns voiced about Tion over the past days, and I decided I wasn't certain enough to vote Tion yesterday. But add to that the events of last night: According to what everyone else so far has been saying, only three people knew that Awes was going to get hit, right before Awes acquired a shiny new set of Plate and was painrialled. He had to have gotten that Plate from somewhere, and I'm more convinced that Tion gave it to him. Which would mean that Tion is now Plate-less and we can get him. As far as I am concerned, if we add up everything, including the attempted Shard challenge on Faialen and last night's events, I think it's an arrow pointing to Tion.
 
From my perspective, anything else looks like a crapshoot. And I'm just going to throw one last thing as food for thought: I've noticed that Awes has tried to push for the lynching of players with a slightly more passive playstyle. Players, that is, who prefer a measure of certainty before calling for a lynch. I find it pretty interesting that the players currently controlling the discussion are employing the same strategy. Which is why I am exceedingly wary of attempting to vote in any direction except where my suspicions currently lead me.

[Macen]

I haven't voted because I can't. I have declared an heir today. I know Meta has a Tier 1 defense item because I was the "heir" to a tier 1 item he acquired which tells me he probably still has his shardplate (there are a few other options, but they don't add up very well).

Tion was painknifed last night, so he couldn't make Wurm his Heir - so the item came to me. This also means that he couldn't have been the assassin and received Joe's half-shard (although he could have been heir'd the half-shard if the assassin already had a tier 1 defense item - this all seems very unlikely).

However we vote, we need to vote together. There is currently, at a minimum, 4 GB's and they probably have 2 reversers (we have at least 1). There are 12 us, but I can't vote today so 11 votes. So, essentially, we are looking at a 8/3 split minimum (if they have 4, and only 1 reverser) but it's more likely to be around a 7/4 split. If we have two people not vote with us or numerous other reasons then we lose the vote. Every vote truly does count, and they have to be together.

EDIT - It didn't save as blue.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Macen

[Sart]

There's only one thing to do; let's make a list:

• Awes: Tion, Wurum, Lucal (1)
• Tion: Wurum, Jim Bob Dirt, Khas (2)
• Sprenil: Cara (1)
• Cara: Humperdink (1)
• Humperdink: Wurum (1)
• No vote: Macen

This isn't good guys. We're spread out on our votes, which means that reversers can influence it. Even worse, the one Ghostblood we know of is protected by Shardplate, which means that we can't kill him today. We now know that Awes had the evil reverser from day one. The GBs also have a 50% chance of having one from Pailan's death. We need a two vote difference at minimum, and preferably a three vote difference. I'm thinking about voting for Tion, but if your information is correct, Macen, then that won't help us either. Out of the candidates that actually have votes, I think I'm going to vote for Sprenil. I'm guessing that, due to the number of items, everyone started out with one, or they had some sort of role. If that is the case, then the most likely role for Sprenil is Ghostblood. It's not the best argument, but it's the only one that makes sense to me.

[Macen]

Saritu, I think that Sprenil being a GB is unlikely. The GB have too many items to have a single user NOT have an item. It doesn't make much sense. There were tons of people who started with only 1 item, and tons who started with 2, or two and a role. I think the chances are just as likely he started with none. The argument of going for him when he has no items, after stating he had no items 2 days ago (didn't know we were going to verify) as the reason he is GB seems a little bit of a stretch. Building your house on sand with this one my friend.

EDIT - it didn't save blue, again.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Macen

[Sart]

Hmmm... That is convincing evidence. I wasn't sure when you guys had scanned him, but if he didn't have items two days ago, that means he is probably clean. While you're here, can you explain this part of your arguments?

 

 

Here is the information I've been given. Wurum aimed for Awes. A pain knife was aimed at Saritu (possibly Aspren). The way the chat reads, the person was "trying to use a fabrial on someone" the pain-knife holder seems to think that means they were pain knifed. If this is the case, then that makes me think Saritu is a GB (possibly Aspren - but until I know for sure who the Pain Knife was aimed at, I'm not sure).

The only explanation of the ShardPlate holder being pain knifed (which was one of those two) and the bow attacking him would be if Wurum had gotten soul-casted to attack Saritu (or Aspren). The problem I see with this is that I received an item from Wurum last night (unless I received it from someone else. I was heird a single use painrial which means someone already had a defense item and so it passed to me. So, I will make my heir Spenril.
 

 

I don't think I've been pain-knifed. Is there a message that is sent out about it?

[Wyrmhero]

You wouldn't know you were Pain Knifed unless you had an Alerter, I believe. ...Though confirmation would be nice, Mailliw?

 

I also agree with Ace about Sprenil not being a Ghostblood, based on that logic. I suspect that Sprenil was so cavalier on the first day because he had no role (this is speculation, mind) and no items (which has been confirmed, at least recently), and so thought that he wouldn't really be missing out on much if he did die early. That also explains his inactiveness, for the most part.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Macen]

The pain knife user decided to pain knife meta. Meta had told him go to for you or sprenil.

[Aspren]

The argument of going for him when he has no items, after stating he had no items 2 days ago (didn't know we were going to verify) as the reason he is GB seems a little bit of a stretch.

 

I don't think I said publically that I have no items. But yes, I don't have any items or a role.

 

In any case, I'm going to vote for a change. Awes.

[Wyrmhero]

I will reiterate, there is no point voting for Awes until we can get the Painrial off him. Cracking his Shardplate won't matter if I can't hit him tonight anyway. A vote for Awes is a wasted vote. Worse, since it gives the Ghostbloods control of the lynch as we are right now.

 

I would also request you to change your vote if you voted for Sprenil. At the very least, if we can give them a choice between Tion and Humperdink, that choice will tell us something. In fact, if its left where it is, then we don't get ANYTHING from this lynch. They save Awes with his unbroken Shardplate, and don't have to even lift a finger to manipulate us.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[luckat]

Very glad to see Luckat's long post with his her thoughts there. The problem with lynching and then allowing me to take another shot at him though is that they will just protect him again. We'd need to get rid of the Ghostblood with a Painrial first of all, before we can deal with a Ghostblood in Shardplate. I am still suspicious as to why they Painrialed a Shardplate wielder though. Starting to wonder if that suggests there are only two Ghostbloods in the entire game, and we're nowhere near as finished as we think... But your analysis of the writeup also makes sense in telling us that there are four.

I was mostly wondering why Tion suggested what he did: to have you attack Awes tonight without voting for him today. Regarding what you said though, Awes cannot be protected by the Painrial tonight unless they have more than one (at least according to what Tion has been saying all game), so now might be our best opportunity to take him out unless we manage to kill the person with the Painrial first. Of course, if they really do have two Painrials then we do need to vote someone else. Taking out Awes first might not be the best option anyways because then another Ghostblood might get his Shardplate and we would have to hit someone else twice to get them.

At this point, we need to consolidate our votes. They are too scattered, and if we leave them this way, the Ghostbloods will easily be able to control them. As such, I will change my vote from Awes to Humperdink. I know that that is just switching who has 1 vote and who has 2 between Awes and Humperdink, but it appears that no one is going to add votes to Awes today, and Humperdink seems a good choice at this point.

Here’s the most recent set of votes:

Awes (1): Tion, Wurum, Lucal, Sprenil

Tion (2): Wurum, Jim Bob Dirt, Khas

Sprenil (2): Cara, Saritu

Cara (1): Humperdink

Humperdink (2): Wurum, Lucal

Currently no vote, but had a previous one: Ace, Tion

No vote at all: Alv, Awes

I for one would like to know where Alv is. He has been on, but he hasn’t said anything during this cycle. In the past, he has expressed suspicions of Tion, but he’s not now when many other people are. That to me seems rather suspicious (but I’m not going to start a vote for him this close to the end of the day when we really need to keep from being so scattered).

 

The pain knife user decided to pain knife meta. Meta had told him go to for you or sprenil.

If Tion was Pain Knifed, then he can’t be one of the four Ghostbloods who were active last night, and he can’t be the other one on my list because that one attacked him personally (although, now I think that one and last night’s rope one probably are the same). If there are 4 Ghostbloods, then it is impossible for Tion to be any of them. If there are 5, then the only thing he has done for them in the writeups is being attacked, and I don't know if that squares with the thoughts of the last one in the most recent writeup (but that could just be RP anyways).

That does bring into question how they got their information, which Ace seemed rather sure they could only get from one of their group being a Ghostblood. I don’t want to jump to conclusions, especially this late in the day, but I would like more explanation for that. Given Ace gave his plate to Wurum, it seems like Ace is probably not a Ghostblood though.

[Wyrmhero]

I was mostly wondering why Tion suggested what he did: to have you attack Awes tonight without voting for him today.

That does bring into question how they got their information, which Ace seemed rather sure they could only get from one of their group being a Ghostblood. I don’t want to jump to conclusions, especially this late in the day, but I would like more explanation for that. Given Ace gave his plate to Wurum, it seems like Ace is probably not a Ghostblood though.

 

We decided to attack Awes last night because we thought he'd die from it, simply enough. We never expected to have to vote, as we weren't aware he had a Shardplate. If he hadn't been saved by a Painrial, he'd be dancing the hemp fandango by now anyway. However, since he does have a Shardplate, he's somewhat hard to lynch.

 

Tion is right about them not being able to protect Awes with a Painrial tonight. I had misunderstood its protective qualities, and wish I'd checked sooner. I was assuming that they worked like the Lurcher role from the Mistborn games. If I'd thought about it yesterday, I'd have called a duel between myself and Awes to finish it in a respectful and dignified manner.

 

I would agree that Ace is not evil as well, since as you say, he gave me his plate. He could be playing a very long game, but it's far too convoluted for what the Ghostblood need at this point in the game, since if I was killed they'd probably have the bow by now and have won. Particularly since Ace was definitely aware that I had a Half-Shard the previous night, and thus could've killed me with a normal attack.

 

The 'information that could only be gained from our group' was not the fact that I had a Grandbow, since they could've just gone for me randomly or Spied the Grandbow, but the fact that I was going to hit Awes at all. We just found it highly suspicious that the most protected member of the Ghostbloods had further protection on him than a Shardplate. We can't exactly get information on why they did that though, unfortunately.

 

I definitely want to read the Spiked Pahn Kahl Ghostblood document now though.

[Sart]

I'm still not sure about this, but we need a solid target. While I admit the logic isn't that great, I will switch my vote from Sprenil to Humperdink. Let's see if we can actually kill a Ghostblood for once.

[Alvron]

I was hoping that either Tion or Awes would've voted by now as then I might be able to glean some information about who they were trying to protect.  But as neither one has voted and I have to head off to work soon I will stand by my past auguments and vote for Tion.

[Macen]

This is, in no way, a guaranteed kill... We just need to hit someone who is suspicious with the hope of a kill. The only chance we have is to kill a GB today, and to get lucky and pain knife someone tonight who is attacking. I wish we had a slew of emotional bracelets to use tonight, but don't. :/

I'll be sending out some PM's tonight to try to coordinate some actions. Input is welcome, my choices haven't been the best this game and I'm more than willing to admit it. I don't know if we will kill a GB with Humperdink, but at this point in the game I feel the chances of taking out the sword are better than trying to crack a plate that we can't kill and stop any actions. If we crack it tonight we can kill him tomorrow.

[Theorymaker]

I'll change my vote from Sprenil to Humperdink.

 

Reasons behind my vote besides Wurum's plan is that we still need a majority vote and Humperdink voted for me for no reason. I still don't trust Sprenil.

[Metacognition]

I was mostly wondering why Tion suggested what he did: to have you attack Awes tonight without voting for him today. Regarding what you said though, Awes cannot be protected by the Painrial tonight unless they have more than one (at least according to what Tion has been saying all game), so now might be our best opportunity to take him out unless we manage to kill the person with the Painrial first. Of course, if they really do have two Painrials then we do need to vote someone else. Taking out Awes first might not be the best option anyways because then another Ghostblood might get his Shardplate and we would have to hit someone else twice to get them.

 

We have more worries than just the Painrial. If we don't make it so that they have less attacks and can't protect each other with the Painrial, then we've already lost. I've never said to not go after Awes, just not right now. He still can't be protected tonight and we can chip the plate then. By taking out one of the others first, we might get back important items and make it more difficult for them to use all their items. Then the next day, we can take out Awes and we haven't wasted a day. 

 

While I still think Humperdink has been gone a bit too much to actually be a Ghostblood, Wurum makes a good case with him jumping on and using his vote the way he has.  

 

Edited May 28, 2014 by Metacognition

[Mailliw73]

You wouldn't know you were Pain Knifed unless you had an Alerter, I believe. ...Though confirmation would be nice, Mailliw?

 

Wurum is correct.

An hour and twenty minutes left.

[luckat]

We have more worries than just the Painrial. If we don't make it so that they have less attacks and can't protect each other with the Painrial, then we've already lost. I've never said to not go after Awes, just not right now. He still can't be protected tonight and we can chip the plate then. By taking out one of the others first, we might get back important items and make it more difficult for them to use all their items. Then the next day, we can take out Awes and we haven't wasted a day. 

 

We're not going to get back any important items if we only kill during the day because I find it extremely unlikely that the Ghostbloods don't have heirs. We need Wurum to make as many killing blows as possible if we want to actually get anything, so chipping his plate seems pointless tonight if it won't actually kill him then. Your other point--that if we actually lynch one of the Ghostbloods today, it will be more difficult for them to use all of their items--is a good one though.

[Macen]

Or we could just keep the items we know he has on him and keep pain-knifing him... just a thought.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Macen

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Sorry it seems I’m back to really long RP write ups but I just couldn’t pass this up. It’s not often you get to be openly on the evil side and not even be on the chopping block so I’m going to have some fun with it.

 

They walked down secluded streets side by side, assessing the day’s events. It didn’t matter too much if they were overheard. Everyone knew where Awe’s allegiances were now.

 

“The news you bring pleases me greatly. If I were capable of laughing I would. They continue to make decisions based on false assumptions and deductions. You’d think they would have learned after the incidents with the Spanreeds and Reversers. They can’t even figure out what really happened last night when it was practically spelled-out for them.”

 

Awes glanced over at the large head that followed next to him, one big eye staring back. The lips didn’t move when Stomper spoke to him but the Ryshadium spoke nonetheless. It’s what had frightened Awes most about the great horse when he started working for Sebarial. Nobody else seemed to notice it but Awes heard Stomper loud and clear. 

 

He thought himself going mad at first but that couldn’t be the case. Ryshadium were unusually intelligent, some say even sentient. Perhaps they could all talk to us in this way but they only choose those they deem worthy? That must be the reason. Awes was special.

 

Awes had always thought there was some greater purpose for why Stomper had chosen to speak to him all this time and now finally he understand. He was terrified when the Ryshadium first commanded him to help kill the king. He didn’t think he had the courage for something like that but he ended up surprising even himself. Since that night, Awes had come to see he was born for this role. The ghostbloods were where he had always belonged and Stomper had made that happen. He even had shardplate now! His fear and anger for the beast had been replaced with nothing but gratitude and unerring obedience.

 

After a few more minutes of thought, Stomper continued, “I had expected to lose you this evening but it looks like you were saved by another misunderstanding about how fabrials work. They realized their mistake but far too late to make a difference and now another of their number will die. Honestly, they make this too easy. I could almost help them along just to make things a little more sporting.”

 

“Yes! A Clue! A Clue!. Let’s give them a clue and see if they can figure it out. I do love games.”

 

Stomper halted his walk and gave Awes a long look. Awes could never tell what the horse was thinking but this time he was pretty sure it was a suffering glance at having to endure Awes’ continued antics.

 

“Sorry.” Awes hung his head and mentally hit himself at being foolish again.

 

“While I do enjoy toying with my targets, I do not think giving them any hints would be wise. What we seek to accomplish is far to important to risk on a little extra entertainment.”

 

Awes didn’t often contradict Stomper when he used that tone, but he really wanted to go back and have some fun withe nobles. 

 

“There’s only an hour left before they have to make a decision though. Many have already wandered away from the meeting after casting their vote. They couldn’t change things now even if we gave them a hint or two. I know! I’ll just tell them that somebody was on the right track earlier today. There were so many different tracks today they’ll never figure out which one was the right one.”

 

“No.”

 

But...”

 

“No!”

 

Awes gave his poutiest, saddest look. Stomper just stared back. That went on for a few seconds but finally the horse shook his head with a loud whiney. 

 

“Fine! You can give them one hint. Go back and cast a vote. You’ve participated in every lynching up to this point, no reason to stop now just because they know what you really are. You will cast your vote for Humperdink”.

 

Awes scratched his head in thought. “Humperdink? But he’s already going to be lynched today. Voting for him isn’t going to give them any more information than they’ll already get in the next hour.”

 

“That’s all the hint I will allow you to give. Who knows, perhaps it will be enough for them to pull something miraculous out at the last moment. I doubt it though. Now go. No more discussion about it.”

 

Awes reluctantly continued ahead down the path, intent on putting the final nail on yet another coffin.

 

Just one hour left. Things aren’t looking good. Tick Tock, Tick Tock. After you’ve read all this, there is probably even less time to scramble. Tick Tock, Tick Tock. Is anyone even online to read this? Probably not enough to make a difference. Tick Tock, Tick Tock. hehehe!

Edited May 28, 2014 by Awesomeness Summoned

[Wyrmhero]

Storm you, Awesomeness. Have an upvote.

[Macen]

Even my hate for how bamboozled I've been is out weight by my admiration. Great write-up and great playing so far this game. *golf clap*

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Oh well, can’t say I didn’t try Humperdink. They had to get one right eventually. At least I won’t actually vote for you. Hope the dead doc gives you a warm welcome.

[Wyrmhero]

 

Oh well, can’t say I didn’t try Humperdink. They had to get one right eventually. At least I won’t actually vote for you. Hope the dead doc gives you a warm welcome.

 

So now I'm expecting Humperdink to be innocent and you're just pulling our legs again >>

[Awesomeness Summoned]

HeHeHe! I guess only time will tell. Tick Tock.

 

Edit: Humperdink wasn't around today to defend himself so I had to try something crazy to see if I could get some votes pulled away from him at the last minute. I didn't really expect it to work but just writing a crazy Awes who thinks his Ryshadium talks to him was well worth it

Edited May 28, 2014 by Awesomeness Summoned