Long Game 5: Noble Secrets

[Aspren]

I'm not too sure that I should defend myself. yet.

[A Joe in the Bush]

MACEN!!!! Someone contacted me, and asked me to vote for someone so that they could get proof that Someone else had a Reverser, So Please don't vote Macen, and if you're the Guy who used a Reverser on Tors, please don't.

[Aonar he/him]

Particularly people who are clearly lurking, and who did their best to distance themselves during the previous day, while making vague allusions to suspicions. Let's see if Faialen has anything to add.

 

Finally got time to write up a response to this:

 

I haven't said much in the Thread (I am trying to not get quite so involved in this game; finals are coming up next month), but I've been plenty active in PMs (I'm not one of the people who know all the Spanreed holders though).

 

My biggest suspicions were and are Jim Bob and Grellin. At that point in the last Day though, they'd both been called out already, and there was no real point in voting for either of them. There's no way Grellin would have been lynched, and I didn't really feel like messing with Meta's plans by voting for Jim Bob. He carries a lot of influence, and a vote to kill Jim Bob could also be construed as a vote to protect Tors, the person that several people found most suspicious at the time.

 

Probably not helping myself much here, but I think being as open as possible about my motivations is likely a good thing, seeing how I can't unequivocally prove myself innocent this time 'round.

Edited May 17, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

Why am I constantly accused of being a GB? The reason the GB didn't knife me in the middle of the knight was probably because I was a useless player with no value. That, or because I'm a potential suspect. My clairvoyance is just a coincidence. You can see that I posted later, and that's because I was influenced by the previous post.

Jain walked through the market, juggling the fruit he had just bought and his toy panda out of boredom. It didn't look particularly happy, sharing air space with a dozen exotic fruit.

Earlier today, Jain had been officially accused of being a Ghost Blood. Needless to day, he was quite unhappy. All he ever wanted to do was to observe, and it seemed to always end like this, this being an angry, bloodthirsty mob screaming for his blood.

Realizing that his juggling had caught more than a few eyes, Jain quickly replaced his fruit and toy into his pocket and hurried off to another warcamp.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

MACEN!!!! Someone contacted me, and asked me to vote for someone so that they could get proof that Someone else had a Reverser, So Please don't vote Macen, and if you're the Guy who used a Reverser on Tors, please don't.

 

...Because the Ghostbloods will definitely listen when you tell them not to screw around with your votes, right?

 

I'm not too sure that I should defend myself. yet.

 

Why won't you defend yourself, Sprenil? All that defending yourself will do is to give out information - Something that we sorely need. True, your lynch would give us information, but nowhere near as much as if you actively took part in the discussion. The only reason I can think of is that you're a Ghostblood and you're relying on your ploy early in the game to defend you, because no-one takes a player who offers to die seriously. Frankly, I find it too suspicious not to vote for you now.

 

So so far, we still haven't heard today from Adolin/Jim Bob Dirt, this despite his name being thrown around a bit, Kasimir/Khas, Smart Guy/Saritu and Luckat/Lucal. In addition, Gleeman/Humperdink and Grey Pilgrim/Grellin Pilgras have only done RP posts, and not contributed anything to the discussion. I am somewhat suspicious of the fact that Humperdink appeared on the thread while discussions were being done, just to post an RP snippet.

Edited May 17, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Kasimir he/him]

If I have time, I'll throw in an RP later because right now, I'm dead tired from the madness that is a university open house.
 
Unfortunately, I'm at a dead-end. Yesterday, something about how aggressively Meta was pushing his accusations/votes troubled me, which seems to be an ok starting point for a proto-suspicion, but not for declaring it in thread until I had something better. This was the most I'd carried over to today, until I just learned the GBs have (had?) attacked Meta. (In addition, he has said that having Plate was one of the reasons for the way he played on Day One.) I'm not sure where to put that: others in this thread (Claincy, Wyrm and Sphinx, among others) have noted that it might be Meta's ploy to appear to be our confirmed noble player, but have generally said that they don't think it's a ploy (with the exception of Sphinx, who holds a slightly different position). As these are all more experienced players than me, and therefore with a better understanding of what tricks are and aren't likely to occur in a game, I believe that I should revise the credence I have assigned this proto-suspicion downwards, and am accordingly left with nothing nagging at me right now. Obviously, this can and will change.
 
I do have one or two things I'd like clarified though I'd stress none of these are proto-suspicions.
 
1. Meta, you said, "I made this claim because if Tors turned out to be innocent (which he did), then that means that at least two innocent people had voted for him. Now that might not seem like much, but by boiling it down to one or the other, it makes it so the Ghostbloods have to play it safe." I would appreciate help in following your reasoning, please, because I don't see how this works.

 

2. As on Day One, we have what I find to be an unnecessary heir declaration in the middle of a thread. Joe, Sphinx, and Claincy have discussed the merits and demerits of naming an heir last night, but any dispute was over the efficacy and timing of such a declaration. (The absence of debate over whether an heir action should be a night action is, of course, not the same as the matter being universally accepted.) But here's what I don't understand: it's a great way for Xanas to put his money where his mouth is, and to tell us all that he really trusts Meta but it's also a big screaming neon sign to the GBs that he has items. Having recently checked the rules (I have these rule lawyer tendencies, I know), I notice that a daytime heir action replaces a vote. So this is what I want clarification about: Xanas, why have you felt the need to make a daytime heir action at the cost of your vote and painting a target on your back? (I'm aware that this same clarificatory question can be asked of Jain and Macen, which is why I note it is only a desire for clarification at this point in time.)

[GreyPilgrim he/him]

Responding to the comment that I have not been active: Sorry, I was pretty busy yesterday, and I'm pretty busy today as well. If I have time, I will respond to the comments about me and make some general observations.

Jost: That is an interesting comment about my "doings" during the night. I'm curious as to how you obtained information. Since you don't seem to want to discuss this openly, could one of the spanreed holders kindly set up a conversation between us, come night?

[Awesomeness Summoned he/him]

There have now been two different accusations made against Xanas (fishing for the spanreeds and naming an heir during the day for no reason) as well as a few other suspicions cast his way without any kind of a response. I didn't feel like I had enough reason to vote for you before but I would like to get at least some kind of a response to those so I'm going to go ahead and say Xanas until you do.

Saturdays are really busy for me but if I get a satisfactory response from you and I end up getting a chance to, I'll try and retract my vote later.

[Sphinx]

Thanks for responding, Faialen.

 

I think that leaves Saritu

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Three and a half more hours to go.

Is anyone opposed to a 48 hour night cycle this night? I'm not sure how much time I'll have to be able to put the orders together tomorrow.

[GreyPilgrim he/him]

I am fine with a 48-hour night cycle.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

I've no objections

[Aonar he/him]

I don't have a problem with it Maill.

 

This really hasn't been the most interesting day, has it? Just look at the current vote list:

 

Faialen: 0 Pailan

Xanas: 1 Awes

Sprenil: 1 Wurum

Ace: 1 Jost

Sartu: 1 Pailan

 

At this rate, nobody's going to be lynched today, if the Reverser doesn't get used. (Two votes for a lynch, remember?) We know the Ghostbloods have a Reverser, so this really isn't a favourable position. Of those on this list, my greatest suspicion is Xanas (and then Sprenil), due to how erratically he's playing, but the Ghostbloods are pretty well guaranteed to have a Spanreed, so they would know full well how pointless his suggestions were. If he is a Ghostblood, he's gained them nothing but a little undue suspicion.

 

However, if I voted the way I'd like to, (for Grellin or Jim Bob) nothing would be achieved. So Xanas it is, I suppose.

 

Faialen: 0 Pailan

Xanas: 2 Awes, Faialen

Sprenil: 1 Wurum
Ace: 1 Jost
Sartu: 1 Pailan

 

EDIT: Added a vote I missed, thanks to Theorymaker.

Edited May 17, 2014 by AonarFaileas

[Theorymaker he/him]

Faialen you didn't include that Wurum voted for Sprenli.

 

So the list is:

Faialen: 0 Pailan

Xanas: 2 Awes, Faialen
Ace: 1 Jost
Sartu: 1 Pailan

Sprenli: 1 Wurum

[Theorymaker he/him]

Sorry for a double post. I am going to vote for Xanas. I thought about it and realized that anyone on the list could be lynched when a reverser is used. This way if anyone reverses it will only be a tie. (Only works if they reverse a vote for Xanas to another suspect).

[A Joe in the Bush]

Is the Voting Period Over?

Edited May 18, 2014 by Joe-son-son-Robert

[Macen he/him]

Mail. When you said 48 hour night did you mean 48 hour day? I'm assuming so because we are more than a few hours late. (I think most of us understand how time consuming it is to gm. So, take your time. )

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Night 2: Scattered ChatterKae2

Night 2:

Tion had been enraged at the Ghostblood's attempt on his life. They thought they could kill him that easily, they had another thing coming.

Once again, the day went by slowly at the beginning, but soon erupted into debate back and forth over who held the coveted Spanreeds and who was a traitorous Ghostblood. Secret conversations were held and devious plans were plotted in alleyways and corners.

People were called out left and right. Grellin and Sprenil, Ace and Faialen. The Heralds only knew what would happen as the day drew to a close. A Fabrial was used and trust, misplaced or not, was built. Confidences formed and secrets revealed.

The quiet ones who sat in the back by themselves were asked to speak or be hung. Khas, Lucal, and Cara among them. The loud ones were asked to defend themselves. Tion and Jost did so with confidence.

Xanas was finally chosen to be the one who died. He was taken to the gallows and he yelled to Tion, "take my items!"

Xanas was a Noble with a Spanreed and a Pain Knife.

Votes:

Xanas (3): Awes, Faialen, Cara

Ace (0): Jost

Sprenil (1): Wurum

Saritu (1): Pailan

Declared heir: Xanas

The night will end at 3:30 MDT/22:30 GMT on Monday.

Sorry for the late writeup guys, things came up and I couldn't post till now.

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

At this rate, the GB won't even have to use their night actions. We're screwing ourselves well enough. Least we know who has (and possibly used) a Pain Knife and a spanreed. I'd also like a spanreed user to contact me. Tion, I'm slightly unnerved about the fact that you have a Pain Knife

Jain rubbed his eyebrows when he heard the news. Another person hung, and it was an innocent again. What was more, the victim was a spanreed and Pain Knife holder, which were both now in possession of Tion. Glancing his toy panda, which was now back on its shelf, he was mildly surprised to see that the toy was blank and emotionless. He had expected it to be at least smirking in revelry.

Turning the toy panda so that it faced the wall (Jain did not want anyone looking at him sleep, even if it was a toy), Jain hopped into bed and sent a quick prayer to the Almighty or whatever deity that was nice enough to listen.

[Wyrmhero he/him]

At this rate, the GB won't even have to use their night actions. We're screwing ourselves well enough.

 

I don't really see how. What would you have us do instead, never lynch someone unless we knew for sure (not that we can be in this game)?

 

It's highly unlikely we can get a Ghostblood just by lynching on the second night like that; we just don't have enough information, particularly in a game like this. What we have got from this however is important information, that both Faialen and Cara voted to confirm a lynch. True, if they hadn't voted there would be a lynch anyway due to the reverser, but it's still important information.

 

We also know where two items have gone, and neither of them were goal items. Really, it's rather useful that Xanas did declare an heir last night, since we know where things have gone. Admittedly, so do the Ghostbloods, but still. In any case, the lynched person did not have a 'true noble' item or a goal item, so it's not particularly dangerous that we've lynched someone.

 

We also, this time, haven't lynched someone with a role. This is incredibly important, because roles cannot be replaced. If we had to kill someone, at least we killed someone with only items. And judging from what we know of Tion's set of items, he can use them both tonight if he wishes. As such, there's no real loss of functionality either. So while we may have lost a player, it's not as if we've shot ourselves in the foot.

[Awesomeness Summoned he/him]

Wurum, is right Jain. Innocents killing innocents is just a part of this game (It's called Sanderson Elimination). Go back and read through some of the previous games and you'll see most of the time at least 3-4 innocents are are killed by friendly fire before one of the evil side is eliminated. The only way to be absolutely sure you know someone is evil is if you catch them making the night kill with the bracelet. Since we know there is likely 4-5 GB (based on previous game percentages) and any one of them can make the kill each night, the chances of you catching them in the act is pretty slim. The only other method of rooting them out is debates and voting.

 

We really need to start being more aggressive on that front as well. Two days in a row someone has been lynched with only 3 votes. Not only does the passive game play make it difficult to identify suspicious actions, but the low vote count makes it easy for the GB to sway the votes in their favor. If you are worried about screwing ourselves Jain, that's what will do it; giving the GB control of the votes on top of their night kills.

 

Also, sorry Xanas. I really just wanted a response to the accusations against you. Since you didn't even respond to the votes for you, It appears you likely had gone MIA from the game for a bit.

[Sart he/him]

Sorry I haven't been active, I'm too busy graduating high-school. Yay me!

[Metacognition he/him]

Okay, now I really need the person with the panrial on me! I'll be naming a heir tonight just to be safe and my other action might be just to give one of these items away to someone! That's the only way we can be sure that the Ghostbloods don't get too much from one kill. 

 

Also, those that have been trying to cause distrust of me have rocketed up on my suspicion list. For you to believe that, you'd have to believe that the Ghostbloods sacrificed their kill for a night and an item that would keep them alive, all on the chance that everyone would buy me of all people was good beyond doubt. That would be insane, as I don't think anyone in these games would trust me without a doubt until I'd been confirmed by a Spy or something!

[Lightsworn Panda he/him]

LEt me explain myself a bit. I know that innocents kill each other 95% of the time. What I'm slightly miffed about is the fact that the GB did not use their night action. It's almost as if they're taunting us. I don't think I can make it through this night alive, so could the painrial holder protect me. I'm a sitting duck as it is.

Awesomeness, look at your account picture and your reputation level

[Wyrmhero he/him]

What I'm slightly miffed about is the fact that the GB did not use their night action. It's almost as if they're taunting us.

 

They didn't what? They attacked Meta. That was their night action. Or at least, that was their kill action.

Edited May 18, 2014 by Wyrmhero